Its Time , Bitcoin 160k by March or September 2025?
We are in the early stages of the next bull market. The question was never "if" but rather "when." The probability has shifted significantly to the upside in the last two months. Really, nothing much has been going on, and I’m waiting for my confirmation markers to trigger before making a technical analysis.
In my view, we are in a pretty large bull flag, and a mirror move like the one we saw from September 2023 to March 2024 could push Bitcoin to 160K by March 2025.
There are two major dates I’m focusing on: March/April 2025 and September 2025.
The clearest sign of a change in trend is that we stopped putting in lower lows and formed a triple bottom with bullish divergence on the daily chart.
The puzzle for the rest of 2024 and 2025 is not whether we will have a bull market but where and when the cycle top will occur. It's more of a question of timing, and that’s what I’m focusing on.
**March/April 2025 - Possible Top**
As you can see, since 2019, the average duration of major Bitcoin rallies has been 147 days. Even the longest rallies of 196 days would reach May 2025.
Looking at my time cycles, we also have a hit around March 2025.
The USDT dominance chart is currently in a bear flag. A mirror move similar to September 2023 to March 2024 would bring dominance levels down to the November 2021 cycle top, around April 2025.
**September 2025 - Possible Top**
For those who don’t know, Bitcoin’s last two cycles took exactly the same time from cycle low to top, 1064 days. If we overlay 1064 days from this cycle's low, it puts the cycle top in early October 2025, which is very close to my Fibonacci time date in September 2025.
I know there’s a lot on this chart to digest, but just focus on the red and yellow circles. Do you see the pattern? Every other sine wave peak is a cycle top. The next sine wave peak falls between September and December 2025.
The Chainlink fractal from last year is still playing out. If it continues, the top is projected for August 11, 2025, again very close to that September 2025 date.
KDA is also an interesting chart for me because it’s mirroring the last cycle closely, which again puts the cycle top in September 2025.
**Conclusion**
USDT dominance is in a bear flag, which is a clue. I’ve been in this position many times before, and USDT dominance has often signaled the way. If this bear flag follows through, it will trigger the first wave of the bull run.
**So, March/April 2025 Cycle Top:**
- 147-day average Bitcoin rallies
- USDT dominance chart mirror move
- A time cycle hit
**September 2025 Cycle Top:**
- Chainlink fractal
- KDA fractal
- Sine line peaks
- 1064 days from cycle low to top
If it’s March/April 2025 and we get a PI cycle cross, we’re out, that’s for sure , we most definitely not taking that chance that "this time its different"
Euphoria Blindness
In my view, we are in a pretty large bull flag, and a mirror move like the one we saw from September 2023 to March 2024 could push Bitcoin to 160K by March 2025.
There are two major dates I’m focusing on: March/April 2025 and September 2025.
The clearest sign of a change in trend is that we stopped putting in lower lows and formed a triple bottom with bullish divergence on the daily chart.
The puzzle for the rest of 2024 and 2025 is not whether we will have a bull market but where and when the cycle top will occur. It's more of a question of timing, and that’s what I’m focusing on.
**March/April 2025 - Possible Top**
As you can see, since 2019, the average duration of major Bitcoin rallies has been 147 days. Even the longest rallies of 196 days would reach May 2025.
Looking at my time cycles, we also have a hit around March 2025.
The USDT dominance chart is currently in a bear flag. A mirror move similar to September 2023 to March 2024 would bring dominance levels down to the November 2021 cycle top, around April 2025.
**September 2025 - Possible Top**
For those who don’t know, Bitcoin’s last two cycles took exactly the same time from cycle low to top, 1064 days. If we overlay 1064 days from this cycle's low, it puts the cycle top in early October 2025, which is very close to my Fibonacci time date in September 2025.
I know there’s a lot on this chart to digest, but just focus on the red and yellow circles. Do you see the pattern? Every other sine wave peak is a cycle top. The next sine wave peak falls between September and December 2025.
The Chainlink fractal from last year is still playing out. If it continues, the top is projected for August 11, 2025, again very close to that September 2025 date.
KDA is also an interesting chart for me because it’s mirroring the last cycle closely, which again puts the cycle top in September 2025.
**Conclusion**
USDT dominance is in a bear flag, which is a clue. I’ve been in this position many times before, and USDT dominance has often signaled the way. If this bear flag follows through, it will trigger the first wave of the bull run.
**So, March/April 2025 Cycle Top:**
- 147-day average Bitcoin rallies
- USDT dominance chart mirror move
- A time cycle hit
**September 2025 Cycle Top:**
- Chainlink fractal
- KDA fractal
- Sine line peaks
- 1064 days from cycle low to top
If it’s March/April 2025 and we get a PI cycle cross, we’re out, that’s for sure , we most definitely not taking that chance that "this time its different"
Euphoria Blindness
Komentarz
since March 2024 we have been in a uptrend , yesturday we got the first daily candle outside this channel! , this is a very good sign , buckle up!
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