Reviewing the time around the halving that produces profitable trending signals.
From the chart 1 yr and 2 months before the halving and 1 year 5 months after the halving produces profitable signals
consider pre halving to be spring
consider post halving to be summer
consider the red X between the two to be winter and unprofitable to take signals.
Posting this up as reference into the next cycle. interested to see how this plays out.
From the chart 1 yr and 2 months before the halving and 1 year 5 months after the halving produces profitable signals
consider pre halving to be spring
consider post halving to be summer
consider the red X between the two to be winter and unprofitable to take signals.
Posting this up as reference into the next cycle. interested to see how this plays out.
Uwaga
You will here this alot over the next year:" "It's only the beginning" I'm thinking that December 2022 was the beginning and we may be 1/3 of the way through the bull market already
Since posting this, I have seen more people quoting this general cycle narrative.
Yet I don't see $ flowing in preparing for 2024. What could happen here is participants wait until the coast is clear before entering. However, b/c ppl are so confident in the halving; it gets front run. This cycle starts early and finishes early.
Instead of lasting until 1 year after the halving it heats up in early 2024 and where ever we are in q4 2024 (no matter how low it seems) will actually be the top. Trapping late comers.
This happened in 2021. Those who waited to enter until mid 2020 would hardly have believed and did not realize that q1 2021 was effectively the top.
How to protect against this? I am and have been buying Aggressive full bull during the sideways action. So when the move is "only getting started" I'll already be beginning to take profits.
i am not alone in this.
Zlecenie aktywne
Now that we have crossed the finish line. this pretty much worked out as expected. For Altcoins they never really participated because the general investment environment never went "risk on" this is seen in the IWM vs SPY ration or in the business ISM.
Could be interesting to see if late 2025 and early 2026 sees a risk on pump for altcoins.
But defense from here is more like waiting and watching for opportunity to participate in the macro shift.
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