Long

Zaktualizowano

BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex

$BITFINEX:BCHUSD is forming the apex of the leading diagnoal.

This Idea is to track the price-action coming out of the the leading diagonal.

For Further Analysis see related idea.

Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD 7.62% has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).

1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)

3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2

4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)

The Beginning:

Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent

The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.

The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.

There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.

The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal .
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.

A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.

The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.

The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.

The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.

Instead of breaking higher the move broke down and consolidated further and formed a larger leading diagonal.

The next wave sequence is estimated to last 259 days till July 1st, 2019.

Cheers!

-AB

Uwaga

Near-Term Target: $800-$730 (30-90 days)
Long-Term Target: $2800 (180 days)

Uwaga

S5 Target (Yellow)

Uwaga

Main Question that comes to my mind is do we breakout of the Leading Diagonal Now...

Or Consolidate further into the Apex

Uwaga

High Probablity of Breaking out...

Elliot Rule...

Wave 3 CANNOT be the Shortest Wave...

Uwaga

TRADE:

BUY: $475
SELL: $530
BUY: $475

Uwaga

Trade Targets are NOT exact. The Trade is for Wave B & C.

Wave B should come very close to Terminal Wave 3. Wave C should bottom at Terminal Wave B. I’m

Uwaga

Wave A Terminal

Uwaga

Wave B is Always 3 sub-waves

Uwaga

Here comes the trade...

Uwaga

Always be on alert for Extensions...

Uwaga

Correction was not a flat...

Internals of Waves are extremely important...

ZigZag Correction...

Do NOT Sell!

Uwaga

Time to break the Leading Triangle?

Uwaga

5 tiny sub-waves in Wave C?

Uwaga

New Trade: Sell at Wave 5 Terminal

Uwaga

Check this out...

Next Move looks nuts...

Uwaga

Next 36 hours the wave sequence will be complete.

Uwaga

Above: Extending S1

Uwaga

Should beginning the move momentarily...

Uwaga

Price-Action Update.

Uwaga

Excuse above.

Below:

Leading Diagonal

Uwaga

Smaller leading diagonal within larger leading diagonal

Uwaga

Almost at the pinnacle of the leading diagonal

Uwaga

Here is a better view.

Larger Leading Diagonal = Green

Smaller Leading Diagonal = Blue

Uwaga

Time for Take-off?

Uwaga

Price-Action update:

Uwaga

3rd sub-wave of the higher degree 3rd should be starting now.

Uwaga

Excuse Above...

Uwaga

Above: Fib Spiral intersect from Cycle Wave A and B

Uwaga

Marks the end of Cycle Wave Correction

Uwaga

Or aka Wave C

Uwaga

STOP

Uwaga

Price-Action Update:

Uwaga

We are beginning Sub-Wave 3 of a higher degree 3rd Wave.

A Fibonacci Spiral gap is opening allowing BCH to move higher (marked by the vertical line).

Uwaga

Fib Time = 3rd Wave Sequence (Approx. 9 days)

Uwaga

Correction:
2 days for Lower Degree
9 days for Higher Degree

Uwaga

Lower Degree - Teal
Higher Degree - Green

Uwaga

Higher Degree:
Wave 3 Target - $606-$650
Wave 5 Target - $735-$800

Uwaga

Key Levels:

Uwaga

Above: Nearing the Apex.

Uwaga

Breakout Imminent!

Uwaga

Above: Complex Correction: FLAT + ZIGZAG

Uwaga

Selling should be over or getting close...

Uwaga

Live updates to make sure I am right about this move

Uwaga

Target Hit.

Uwaga

A few more ticks to go...

Uwaga

$436 is next target

Uwaga

Gap opening...

Uwaga

Price-Action looks good.

Analysis Stands.

Stay the course.

Uwaga

Wave 5 is looking to extend

Uwaga

Scenario 1 : 5th Wave Extends
Scenario 2 : Correction

STOP can be placed firmly at $430.49 (Coinbase)

Uwaga

Scenario 2 occurred, no impact on analysis.

Cheers!

-AB

Uwaga

Correction: ZigZag instead of Flat

Uwaga

Reminder: Wave 1 can be sloppy...

Uwaga

Failed Wave

Stop Triggered

Uwaga

Higher Degree Wave did not fail. The image where I noted where my analysis would failed if the $422 level was crossed.

Uwaga

Excuse typing errors please on my phone.

Uwaga

Here is the image with the stops.

Uwaga

Analysis still stands.

Stay the course.

Uwaga

Wouldn't be surprised at all if BCH just shoots upwards.

Uwaga

Above: Higher Degree Wave

Uwaga

Above: Firm Stop $424.99 (Coinbase) & Retrace levels

Uwaga

Wave 1 usually extends if it only retraces .236 or .382

Uwaga

Price-Action is showing a leading Diagonal

Uwaga

The only formation that can violate Elliot's Wave laws.

Wave 2 can never exceed the start of Wave 1
Wave 4 cannot overlap the price area of Wave 1
Wave 3 Cannot be the shortest impulse Wave

Uwaga

Breakout should be imminent...

Uwaga

Lower Degree Wave 5 Extended
Higher Degree Wave 5 SHOULD Extend

Uwaga

Lower Degree Wave 1 & 2 near completion

Uwaga

I will be updating throughout the day...

Uwaga

Wave 3 Target hit.

Uwaga

Wave 3 Extedning

Uwaga

Wave 3 Extension imminent.

Uwaga

It’s amazing, every time BCH tries to rally a seller(s) come in to block. What the...

Uwaga

Note to Seller(s): You Will Not Win!!!!

Uwaga

Sellers can only surpress price down for so long...it is NOT definite.

Uwaga

Extension Failed.

Uwaga

Wave 4 should terminate near Wave 1 terminal.

Uwaga

Still expecting an Extended 5th Wave

Uwaga

1HR View:

Uwaga

6HR View:

Uwaga

Price-Action looking very strong...

Is it time for the Big Move?

Uwaga

Wave 5 is extending...

Uwaga

Added another spiral for Timing purposes.

Uwaga

Fib Spiral 1: Wave 3 - Wave 4 = Target for Wave 5

Fib Spiral 2: Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 1) - Wave 4 = Timeline for Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 3) to begin

Uwaga

Approx. 4 hours till next leg higher.

Uwaga

Fib Spirals played out exactly...

Uwaga

The main difference between Wave 3 extensions and Wave 5 extensions is that Wave 5 extensions take longer to complete.

Uwaga

Next Target- Yellow box

Uwaga

Hoping this Sequence will break us out of the leading diagonal!

Uwaga

Reminder: This is Higher Degree Wave 3 beginning

Uwaga

Higher Degree Wave 1 & 2 (Yellow)

Uwaga

Elliot Rule: Wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest wave!

Uwaga

Higher wave near-term targets are Fib Extension level 1 & 1.618

Uwaga

Reminder: No way to guarantee where extensions end.

Uwaga

40,000 Feet View (Always Important)

Uwaga

Please give me a like if you find this analysis to be useful!

Uwaga

The BIG move imminent...

Uwaga

Review:

1. Higher Degree Wave 3 Beginning
2. Lower Degree Wave
- Wave 1 - Leading Diagonal (Normal)
- Wave 3 - Passed 1.618 but failed to extend
- Wave 5 - EXTENDING

Uwaga

Plan to open a new idea as soon as we break this leading diagonal

Uwaga

Bare Minimum Wave 3 has to reach $606.

Uwaga

Micro-Wave Sequence complete.

Sell and buy back at Wave 1 Terminal.

Uwaga

Waves are like Russian Nesting Dolls

Uwaga

Trade opportunity!

If you do not want to trade the correction, place a firm stop just under the beginning of Wave 1

Uwaga

Reminder: Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1. The most common retrace is between Sub-Wave 1 Terminal and Sub-Wave 2 Terminal. I have represented this with the Red Fib Spirals.

Uwaga

Wave 2 Corrections are usually in the ZigZag Formation (5-3-5).

Uwaga

-1HR View
-Added Ultimate Oscillator: Shows negative divergence

Uwaga

This is where you would sell...

Watch out for the extensions...

Uwaga

Price-Action Broke 1.236 Level

Watch 1.382 and 1.618 Next...

Looks like the 5th Wave Extension is not over.

Are the shorts starting to cover?

Uwaga

Fib Spiral Intersections are Key.

Green Circle shows two Fib Spirals intersecting...

This is how I read Fib Spirals...

Uwaga

Looks like Major Rally is Straight Ahead...

Uwaga

$562 level is still pointing out to me...

Uwaga

Looks like one more move down to between $447 & $444 then get ready for the next leg higher which should be to at least $520.

Uwaga

Little Trade: Sell Here buy back $445

Uwaga

Trade Worked Perfect...

Now, Let's go higher!

Uwaga

Above: S1 & S2

Uwaga

Fib Extension of S1 & S2

-Added Stop

Uwaga

Counting Waves is an Art not exact science...

Uwaga

ZigZag Correction should be ending now...

Uwaga

Above: Extending Higher Degree Wave 1

Not HIGHEST DEGREE (Still in larger WAVE 3)

Uwaga

STOP Added

Uwaga

Price-Action Update and Fib Spirals added to help track/predict Wave Sequence

Uwaga

1HR View + Next Leg Higher Timeline

Uwaga

Daily View:

Uwaga

Here is Wave 2 Bottom.

Now we are going higher...

Uwaga

Above: Sub-Wave Sequence

Uwaga

Above:

Added Extension Trigger
Added Wave Sequence

Uwaga

5th Wave was Normal

Uwaga

Correction should be ending momentarily...

Uwaga

Correction was FLAT (3-3-5)

Uwaga

Prepare for the ‘Big’ move...

These levels will likely not be seen again...

Buy what you can here.

Uwaga

Will update shortly.

Uwaga

Wave 1 IS extending!

Uwaga

Price-Action update

Added Spiral

Forming Leading Diagonal

Uwaga

Wave 1 extended then pulled back...

Stop Triggered.

Opportunity to pick up more BCH.

Analysis still stands.

Uwaga

Wave 2 came down in a 3 wave sequence which implies a Flat Correction

Uwaga

Wave 2 Correction Complete

Uwaga

6HR View
Added Fib Extension (1&2)

Uwaga

Wave C needs to complete 5 Sub-Waves in order to be complete.

Uwaga

Hypothetical Price-Action

Uwaga

Sub-Wave 4 & 5 will become sub-wave 1 & 2

Uwaga

Price-Action Update:

Uwaga

Price-action update: We have completed 5 Sub-Waves

Uwaga

Added Fib. Extension (S1 & S2)

Uwaga

Breakout imminent

Uwaga

Next Move should be large...

Wave 3 beginning now.

Uwaga

Expect Wave 5 to Extend.

Uwaga

Updated STOP

Uwaga

1HR View

Uwaga

Above: Fib Time of Wave 1

Uwaga

It's time to break the Leading Diagonal we have been in...

Uwaga

Excuse above...

Uwaga

Hypothetical Price-Action

Uwaga

Looks like this is it...

Back to $500's

Uwaga

Price Action update:

Uwaga

10 mins or so left...

Uwaga

Price Action Update:

Uwaga

In the 'Gap'

Let's see which way it goes...

Uwaga

Looks like we are going to have a correction sequence

Uwaga

Wave A bottomed in 5 Sub-Waves which tells us its a ZigZag correction

Uwaga

Wave B usually travels back up to the .618 level of Wave A.

Uwaga

Wave C is always 5 sub-waves and bottoms between the 1 & 1.618 fib. Extension level from waves A & B

Uwaga

Hypothetical Action

Uwaga

Correction is not a ZigZag but a FLAT

Uwaga

Action Update:

Uwaga

#Slowwalker

Uwaga

Action update:

Uwaga

Micro-Wave

Wave 1 is Normal
Wave 3 extended
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree 3 extension

Uwaga

Correction should ending soon

Uwaga

Look for correction to end near 1.382/1.618

Uwaga

Action update:

Uwaga

This wave (3) should extend

Uwaga

Fib extension 1 & 2

Uwaga

Wave 3 should pass 1.618 or $442

Uwaga

Price Action update:

Uwaga

Notice all The Fib Spiral Intesections

Uwaga

Wave is tends to be a sloppy formation

Uwaga

Action update:

Uwaga

Above:

Yellow Box: Failed Wave

Now: beginning a new micro-wave formation

*please excuse typing while on my phone.

Stay the course!

Uwaga

Above:

Teal: Primary Wave - Sub-Wave Sequence
Red: ABC Correction
Orange: Primary Wave 1 & 2

Uwaga

Above: Hypothetical Action

Uwaga

We have to be getting close...

Uwaga

Note the Red Spiral Intersection

Uwaga

Getting really close to breaking out...

Uwaga

Tiny Sub Wave 3 beginning

Uwaga

S1 & S3 we’re near equality

Expect 5th Wave to extend

Uwaga

Wave 5 broke .618 from Fib Extension 0-3-4 which implies it’s extending. Also, it broke the channel line from Terminal wave 1 and Terminal wave 3

Uwaga

We are reaching the end of the leading diagonal...

The next move high should begin at any moment...

Micro-Wave Sequence & ABC Correction ending now..

Uwaga

Correction close to ending

Uwaga

Price should not go below S1(0)

Uwaga

Take emotion out and trust the analysis

Uwaga

Reminder: Its extremely difficult to count 1-3 minute wave sequences. Counting waves is more of an Art than Science. Waves can change and waves can fail. If I do see a change in the formation I will update the idea asap. For example, if I originally said it’s a ZigZag Correction but it’s actually a Flat correction I will update the idea to notify the change in the price-action.

Just wanted to let this be known and it is the main reason why I provide so many price-action updates.

Stay the course...we are getting close to the finish line!

Uwaga

S1(0) held and just quickly looking at the action it looks like we have a Micro-Wave formation.

Uwaga

You could place a STOP near S1(0)

Uwaga

My stop is at $424.89

Uwaga

Perfect Example of a Sloppy Wave 1 Formation...

The less volume the sloppier the wave formations of any given security.

Uwaga

Expecting BCH to takeoff anytime...

Uwaga

Here ya go...

Uwaga

Analysis is about to be proven correct...

Uwaga

Ye o little faith...

Uwaga

Last chance to load up on BCH!

Uwaga

If I don’t post a comment with a chart update I’m just showing the price-action and making sure it is still ‘following’ or ‘riding’ a spiral.

Nothing more and nothing less...

I would notify with comment if there was a change in the analysis.

Uwaga

Looking good...

Watch 1.618 Level

Uwaga

$476.90

Uwaga

Add Fib Extension to Sub-Wave 1 & 2

Uwaga

Review

Uwaga

Add Fib Time and Fib Extension to Higher Degree Primary Wave

Uwaga

Add Fib Extension to Sub-Micro Wave 1 & 2

Uwaga

See the Leading Diagonal?

Uwaga

Beautiful Chart Above...

Fibonacci and Wave Theory

Uwaga

Wave Internals (Sub-Waves) are Key.

Uwaga

Time Estimate for Sub-Wave 3 to begin. I expect we consolidate side ways for a few more hours.

Uwaga

Add Fib Spirals to Sub-Waves

Added Scenarios

Uwaga

Looks like the Green Arrow Scenario is going to play out.

Uwaga

Sub-Wave Sequence Complete

Uwaga

Sub-Wave decided to further retrace.

No change in analysis.

Uwaga

Pretty good time estimate.

Uwaga

Ignore stop above.

Uwaga

Sub-Wave 3 was Normal

Uwaga

Who dumped 5,000 BCH?

Stench of Manipulation...

Uwaga

Higher Degreee has not completely failed...

Uwaga

IF we go below 407.65, analysis will fail...

Uwaga

Wave 2 CANNOT go below the price area of Wave 1.

Uwaga

Original Analysis

Uwaga

If Wave Theory is correct we should be ok...

Uwaga

Just double checked the Wave counts.

Uwaga

Fib Time 5 marks the end of a Wave Sequence (1-5 Waves + ABC Correction).

Uwaga

Found the Error...

I messed up the ABC Correction...

Corrected below:

Uwaga

ZigZag (5-3-5) instead of Flat (3-3-5)

Uwaga

Analysis Stands

Uwaga

I think it is safe to say we are at the Apex.

Uwaga

Above: Log Format

Uwaga

It should be getting close to time to tell whether this idea will be proven correct or fail.

Uwaga

BCH/BTC HAS BOTTOMED! Been over the analysis many times....we can only go higher...

Uwaga

Corrected the Wave Count...

Wave 1 Extended
Wave 3 Normal
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree Wave 1 To extend...

Uwaga

For those interested in my Fib Theory...

Here is a test of it...

Uwaga

Wave 3 of this Sequence will hit $440 if the theory stands...

Uwaga

BCH/BTC will sooner or later be like a rocket launch

Uwaga

Should be going higher in approx. 9 mins...

Uwaga

Spiral Targets

Maybe Tradable

Uwaga

Orange Spiral is Terminal Wave 3 (Wave 1 Terminal to Wave 1 Beginning)

Uwaga

2.618 is a level that keeps appearing in my analysis...

Likely level for Terminal Wave 3

Uwaga

Pink Sequence - Hypothetical Action

Uwaga

Bigger picture...

Uwaga

Do or die time!

Uwaga

Will this analysis fail or be right...

Just tell me!

Uwaga

Fib Spiral Theory Test

Uwaga

Just to know that I'm not placing the Fib Spiral randomly. Above is the Wave count as I see it.

Uwaga

Better view of wave sequence

Uwaga

Wave 3 Terminal: $440-438

Uwaga

Higher Degree Wave 2 completely finished.

Higher Degree Wave 3 is beginning...

Uwaga

Reminder:

Highest Wave:

Uwaga

Higher Degree Target:$6500

Uwaga

Now the goal is to get rich along the way and trade the Sub-Waves to Higher Degree 3rd Terminal then Sell into the 4th Wave.

Uwaga

Heavy hitters on deck

Uwaga

Wait for it...

Batters on deck...

Uwaga

Coinbase chart

Uwaga

Heavy Hitters...

The Rush...

Climax...

Everyone thought it was going lower...

Uwaga

New idea coming soon...

Uwaga

Strong MACD crossover

Uwaga

Breakout imminent...

Uwaga

Wall Street money incoming...

Uwaga

Wave 3 was Normal.

Expect extended 5th.

Uwaga

Added Fib Extension 0-3-4

1.618 Target

Uwaga

Wave Failed....

Don't Panic...

Uwaga

This will start a Wave Sequence

Uwaga

Upside Down ABC Correction

Uwaga

Only used 'ABC' because there is no other '123' Sequence

Correction: 3-3-5

Uwaga

Ahh so close....

Hurry up BCH!

Uwaga

I spoke a little soon when I said BCH Cycle Wave 2 was completely finished...

It's ALMOST!

Need this Last C Wave which will turn into a Wave Sequence.

Uwaga

Excuse me...

Corrected Chart:

Uwaga

This C Wave will make or break the analysis.

Uwaga

99.99% Positive my analysis is correct...

Uwaga

Damn, it feels good to be right...

Uwaga

New idea will be finished soon...

1 hour or so...

Uwaga

Uwaga

New Idea Above!

Uwaga

Correct Link:

FibMarketWatch

Również na:

Powiązane publikacje

BCH-FINALLY-Primary 5th (Extension)-Update

od FibMarketWatch

Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności

Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.

FibMarketWatch

Również na:

Powiązane publikacje

BCH-FINALLY-Primary 5th (Extension)-Update

od FibMarketWatch