IS AUD/USD ON THE BRINK OF BREAKING STRONG SUPPORT?

5 dni temu

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW
Later today, markets will focus on U.S. PMIs, with manufacturing PMI forecast at 49.4 and services PMI at 55.7. On Tuesday, at 5:30 PM GMT+4, key data releases include USD core retail sales and retail sales, expected at 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.
On Wednesday, December 18, the spotlight will be on the Fed funds rate decision, with markets pricing in a 25bps cut during the December policy meeting. On Thursday at 5:30 PM GMT+4, USD GDP q/q is expected at 2.8%, alongside weekly unemployment claims projected at 245k. The week concludes on Friday with the U.S. core PCE m/m release, forecasted at 0.2%.


TECHNICAL VIEW
On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating within a defined range, with the upper red rectangle serving as strong resistance and the lower green rectangle acting as firm support. The price is struggling to break and close below this support zone. The RSI is near the oversold level of 30, suggesting a potential reversal, reinforced by the historically strong support at this level.
If bears succeed in closing the price below 0.63366, the pair could drop to the October 25, 2023, low of 0.62748, and potentially to 0.62001, almost a four-year low. This scenario could align with a strong dollar and political factors such as Trump's second term. Conversely, if bulls manage to push the price above 0.64742, the next target would be around 0.65488, signaling a possible bullish reversal. The coming days will provide clarity on the direction.