Arista Networks

2/18/25 - $anet - Not obvious, sidelines

112
2/18/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: ANET
Not obvious, sidelines

- in this tape where we're mooning big beats/ gains (those have been software-related consumer and tend to be growing >25%) and shooting others (lower-growth w/ unclear outlooks) gives low visibility for how mkt will trade ANET eps

- on one hand, this stock has defn outperformed it's QQQ comp. no reason to believe anything's changed. >3.5 bn fcf on 131 bn EV by no means expensive for a moat like this and growing nearly 20%. i think that's the main point.

- on the other hand, any whack guide or indication of uncertainty or delays etc. send this thing down 10-15% easily.

- so on what looks like a +10/-10% sort of move (i should check implied vol, but this is what i'd guess), and not necessarily faster growing or more moat-y with better valuation than my tech dawgs TSM and uber... i am seeing less and less reasons to play this EPS season than i typically do and more reason to just sit and sip on that sweet mint tea.

good luck to holders. i'd be a dip buyer here on an outsized down move, but probably just sit sidelines otherwise. buy zone is sub $100.

V

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