Apple IncLong
Apple AAPL - Brace Yourselves for $200. Seriously.
Zaktualizowano
Apple is something of a reverse canary in the coalmine when it comes to the Nasdaq, specifically because it's its highest weighted company at almost 14%. All these weeks everyone has been bearish, but yet, Apple is not in anything resembling a bear market.
Instead, everything about Apple from the monthly chart to the daily chart indicates that the January all time high of $182.93 is not very likely at all to be the all time high.
And this is under the circumstance wherein Apple extensively relies on what is effectively slave labor supplied by the notorious Chinese Communist Party, a problem really exacerbated by the regime employing that Zero-COVID stuff.
This is important because the situation with Apple's Foxconn factories and other Chinese factories and the new restrictions on chip makers means there is fundamental problems with this company going forward.
There's fundamental problems and yet it's set up to rally to a new all time high. Apple is more or less in "The Big Short."
Look up "China Quarantine Camps" or "COVID QR Code" on social media. The Chinese are literally being placed by the millions into huge concentration camps and every aspect of their daily life, from their ability to use public transit, their ability to go to work, their ability to purchase goods, their ability to use money, is entirely under the CCP's social credit system, lynch pinned around the colour of their QR code health pass.
And to think this is a system that the Western globalist establishment would like to install for all of us all over the world via central bank digital currencies... all I can say to readers is I hope you are intelligent enough to reject the Communist Party's things and its Marxist-Leninist "Theory of Evolution" and atheism stuff. If you want those things, you'll have to go with those things and experience what those things truly entail.
Personally, I'm calling a bear market rally, with Nasdaq going to 14,000. I suppose it'll be rather humiliating for me if this turns out to be incorrect and we keep dumping. However, fortune favours the bold, and at the same time, this is how bear markets work and there's a logic to the way they operate.
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
I also believe that stocks like Amazon and Meta are due for a fat rally
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull
Before you discount my supposition as hogwash, consider that McDonald's and Lockheed Martin just made all time highs just last month. And this is supposed to be a bear market where everything is going down.
So what's the rationale for saying Apple is going to set a new all time high?
Let's examine the monthly:
1. Apple set the low of the year in June, like everything else, but when it came time for September and October's scary index dumps, Apple remained very strong. October was actually a winning month overall.
2. Although this appears to have sharply reversed in November, it's worth noting we're a total of 4 trading days into the month. The November high as printed is not likely to remain the high.
3. In terms of range equilibrium for this market cycle, which I measure from anything's Coronavirus Disease 2019 pseudo-pandemic hysteria low to its all time high, Apple has not wanted to trade back to equilibrium. This all on its own tells me that the MMs are still heavy on the sell.
Looking at a weekly chart:
Inside the 2022 trading range we can see that Apple is currently trading at a deep discount. The magnification of the fractal shows us that not only is the prior statement true, but that the area below the October of 2021 pivot that led to the ATH has been worked extensively for the last several months.
On the daily, we can see with more clarity that the post-earnings pump was actually a major trade away from this genuine demand zone and back towards range equilibrium. It has since retraced, which is bullish.
If you understand how sell models work, you'll understand why this is "bullish" and not "bearish," and you'll understand why Apple continues to trade like it does and why it doesn't want to make a new low despite how excited everyone always is about the prospect of it crashing so they can buy cheap.
(Hint: When Apple is under $115, don't touch it. It's going to wind up like Facebook.)
But if you understand how sell models work, you'll also know why a new all time high on Apple is bearish, and not bullish.
What I would like to say to everyone is that bear markets rally and rally hard. They do this for a reason and the fundamental reason is that they're not bullish.
It sounds contradictory, right? "Why would something rally so hard if it's not bullish? How can that be?"
You are confused because when you see price go up, you think buying and when you see price go down, you think selling. Yet, if the banks and the funds traded like that, they would blow their account like you do and we would have ourselves a Lehman Brothers moment every 3 to 6 months and society would collapse.
When you see huge rallies like what's ahead you need to govern yourself strictly, and this means:
1. Don't get delusional and think you're in a new paradigm of everything going uppy. No, SPX is not going to 6,000 before Jan. 1 like David J. Hunter has been calling.
2. Check your greed before your greed checks your hide
3. Don't short or buy puts too early. Instead, buy them too late. A bullish Apple is as scary as a bullish Bitcoin.
4. The more complaining you see on social media and your signal groups about the Federal Reserve and "this ponzi," the higher things are going to go. The top is in when the charlatans and grifters start talking about getting long.
5. Buy the dip, but keep your risk low.
6. Make sure you take profits because this is no time to buy and hold.
Because what lies ahead after you see this go on for a bit and VIX hit numbers like 17 and 18, is this, which I called in August,
VIX - 9x8 = 72
The limit down that lies ahead is going to be vicious. Afterwards, North Americans will finally know what a real bear market feels like. It's not fun.
Instead, everything about Apple from the monthly chart to the daily chart indicates that the January all time high of $182.93 is not very likely at all to be the all time high.
And this is under the circumstance wherein Apple extensively relies on what is effectively slave labor supplied by the notorious Chinese Communist Party, a problem really exacerbated by the regime employing that Zero-COVID stuff.
This is important because the situation with Apple's Foxconn factories and other Chinese factories and the new restrictions on chip makers means there is fundamental problems with this company going forward.
There's fundamental problems and yet it's set up to rally to a new all time high. Apple is more or less in "The Big Short."
Look up "China Quarantine Camps" or "COVID QR Code" on social media. The Chinese are literally being placed by the millions into huge concentration camps and every aspect of their daily life, from their ability to use public transit, their ability to go to work, their ability to purchase goods, their ability to use money, is entirely under the CCP's social credit system, lynch pinned around the colour of their QR code health pass.
And to think this is a system that the Western globalist establishment would like to install for all of us all over the world via central bank digital currencies... all I can say to readers is I hope you are intelligent enough to reject the Communist Party's things and its Marxist-Leninist "Theory of Evolution" and atheism stuff. If you want those things, you'll have to go with those things and experience what those things truly entail.
Personally, I'm calling a bear market rally, with Nasdaq going to 14,000. I suppose it'll be rather humiliating for me if this turns out to be incorrect and we keep dumping. However, fortune favours the bold, and at the same time, this is how bear markets work and there's a logic to the way they operate.
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
I also believe that stocks like Amazon and Meta are due for a fat rally
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull
Before you discount my supposition as hogwash, consider that McDonald's and Lockheed Martin just made all time highs just last month. And this is supposed to be a bear market where everything is going down.
So what's the rationale for saying Apple is going to set a new all time high?
Let's examine the monthly:
1. Apple set the low of the year in June, like everything else, but when it came time for September and October's scary index dumps, Apple remained very strong. October was actually a winning month overall.
2. Although this appears to have sharply reversed in November, it's worth noting we're a total of 4 trading days into the month. The November high as printed is not likely to remain the high.
3. In terms of range equilibrium for this market cycle, which I measure from anything's Coronavirus Disease 2019 pseudo-pandemic hysteria low to its all time high, Apple has not wanted to trade back to equilibrium. This all on its own tells me that the MMs are still heavy on the sell.
Looking at a weekly chart:
Inside the 2022 trading range we can see that Apple is currently trading at a deep discount. The magnification of the fractal shows us that not only is the prior statement true, but that the area below the October of 2021 pivot that led to the ATH has been worked extensively for the last several months.
On the daily, we can see with more clarity that the post-earnings pump was actually a major trade away from this genuine demand zone and back towards range equilibrium. It has since retraced, which is bullish.
If you understand how sell models work, you'll understand why this is "bullish" and not "bearish," and you'll understand why Apple continues to trade like it does and why it doesn't want to make a new low despite how excited everyone always is about the prospect of it crashing so they can buy cheap.
(Hint: When Apple is under $115, don't touch it. It's going to wind up like Facebook.)
But if you understand how sell models work, you'll also know why a new all time high on Apple is bearish, and not bullish.
What I would like to say to everyone is that bear markets rally and rally hard. They do this for a reason and the fundamental reason is that they're not bullish.
It sounds contradictory, right? "Why would something rally so hard if it's not bullish? How can that be?"
You are confused because when you see price go up, you think buying and when you see price go down, you think selling. Yet, if the banks and the funds traded like that, they would blow their account like you do and we would have ourselves a Lehman Brothers moment every 3 to 6 months and society would collapse.
When you see huge rallies like what's ahead you need to govern yourself strictly, and this means:
1. Don't get delusional and think you're in a new paradigm of everything going uppy. No, SPX is not going to 6,000 before Jan. 1 like David J. Hunter has been calling.
2. Check your greed before your greed checks your hide
3. Don't short or buy puts too early. Instead, buy them too late. A bullish Apple is as scary as a bullish Bitcoin.
4. The more complaining you see on social media and your signal groups about the Federal Reserve and "this ponzi," the higher things are going to go. The top is in when the charlatans and grifters start talking about getting long.
5. Buy the dip, but keep your risk low.
6. Make sure you take profits because this is no time to buy and hold.
Because what lies ahead after you see this go on for a bit and VIX hit numbers like 17 and 18, is this, which I called in August,
VIX - 9x8 = 72
The limit down that lies ahead is going to be vicious. Afterwards, North Americans will finally know what a real bear market feels like. It's not fun.
Uwaga
Seriously though, the reason Apple won't make new lows is because the Market Makers are buying, not selling. It's going to make a new high. Nobody believes it until they see it.
Uwaga
I have to say fellas, I'm still bullish on Apple making a new all time high, but the way both it and the indexes are trading does not make me believe that this demand zone holds. More or less this run to $150 we just saw was like a Judas Swing from the order block.
Once Apple takes out these lows and spends some time accumulating, watch how fast she goes.
Uwaga
This is an old call that has taken a very long time to manifest. The only thing that I was off about is:1. Markets have taken a lot longer to go up than I had anticipated
2. MMs temporarily raided the $129 order block/demand zone pivot.
IMO, short at $174 is lucrative if you can scalp to $158. But there's a big risk it just runs away on you and you'll have to baggy for a very long time.
I think the trade of the year is to long a wedge/trendline break to $158, which I could only imagine has to come this month, with a target over $200.
And then you have to be careful. Because if indexes and the bluest chips see new highs under the current geopolitical, economic, and environmental situation, it's for sure an exit pump.
Powiązane publikacje
Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.