Federal Funds Rate and Overnight Bank Fund RateAMEX:SPY
Comparison of the Overnight Bank Fund Rate and the Effective Federal Funds Rate.
The Fed sets a discount rate of 100 basis points above the effective federal funds rate to discourage ("penalize") banks from borrowing from its reserves. If lending banks have excess in their reserves, the borrowing banks have ease in negotiating a lower rate overnight to maintain its requirements. For this reason its a good indicator of the economy. If it becomes more difficult for banks to maintain the required reserve amount they may charge borrowing banks higher rates.
Both the Effective Federal Funds Rate and Overnight Bank Fund Rate use the same data. Except, the OBFR includes overnight Eurodollar transaction data and certain overnight “selected deposit” transactions that are placed at domestic bank branches controlled by a U.S. banking office.
The indicator includes the lower and upper bound target rate set by the Federal Reserve.
An interesting note:
Notice the jump in the Overnight Bank Rate followed by Fed buying to provide liquidity and lower rates in Sept 2019.
Wyszukaj w skryptach "spy"
Naked Bar Upward ReversalAMEX:SPY
The Naked Bar Upward Reversal is a three bar candlestick pattern with an inside candle as a entry point. This pattern is bullish since it has a candle closing red from the previous candle; the most bearish pattern possible. The following inside candle is a reversal of its previous candle with an open above the previous candle's close. Look to buy the next open above the inside candle's close.
This is a bullish reversal pattern and should be used in this context. Successful entries are found in corrections along an upward trend, or buying into a dip. Performance drops when the pattern appears at tops. To improve profitability, use a cluster of evidence to enhance the performance of this pattern. The intended time frame is within the daily and weekly.
Live off your portofolio (decumulate)This indicator simulates living off your portofolio consisting of a single security or stock such as the SPY etf or even Bitcoin. The simulation starts at a certain point on the chart (which you input as year and month).
Withrawals from the portofolio are made each month according to the yearly withdrawal rate you enter, such as the 4% SWR. The monthly withdrawal income is calculated in USD at the beginning of the retirement period and then adjusted according to the US inflation (CPI) on 01/01 of each year.
The blue graph represents the USD value of the remaining portofolio.
This indicator is meant to be used on daily, weekly or monthly time frame. It may not work properly (and makes little sense to use) on intraday timeframe or larger time frames such as quarterly (3M).
When withdrawing, the indicator considers that fractional stock values can be used (the portofolio value is kept as a float). This may not be true, as most stock brokers currently don't allow this.
It does not explicitly take into account dividends. In order to do this you will have to enable "Adjust for dividends" by clicking on "adj" in the lower right corner of the screen, or by using the indicator on a Total Return (TR) index such as DAX. Unfortunately SPX does not have dividend data, you will have to use the SPY etf (which doesn't have a long history)
Random Entries Work!" tHe MaRkEtS aRe RaNdOm ", say moron academics.
The purpose of this study is to show that most markets are NOT random! Most markets show a clear bias where we can make such easy money, that a random number generator can do it.
=== HOW THE INDICATOR WORKS ===
The study will randomly enter the market
The study will randomly exit the market if in a trade
You can choose a Long Only, Short Only, or Bidirectional strategy
=== DEFAULT VALUES AND THEIR LOGIC ===
Percent Chance to Enter Per Bar: 10%
Percent Chance to Exit Per Bar: 3%
Direction: Long Only
Commission: 0
Each bar has a 10% chance to enter the market. Each bar has a 3% to exit the market . It will only enter long.
I included zero commission for simplification. It's a good exercise to include a commission/slippage to see just how much trading fees take from you.
=== TIPS ===
Increasing "Percent Chance to Exit" will shorten the time in a trade. You can see the "Avg # Bars In Trade" go down as you increase. If "Percent Chance to Exit" is too high, the study won't be in the market long enough to catch any movement, possibly exiting on the same bar most of the time.
If you're getting the red screen, that means the strategy lost so much money it went broke. Try reducing the percent equity on the Properties tab.
Switch the start year to avoid/minimize black swan events like the covid drop in 2020.
=== FINDINGS ===
Most markets lose money with a "Random" direction strategy.
Most markets lose ALL money with a "Short Only" strategy.
Most markets make money with a "Long Only" strategy.
Try this strategy on: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the NASDAQ (QQQ).
There are two popular memes right now: "Bitcoin to the moon" and "Stocks only go up". Both are seemingly true. Bitcoin was the best performing asset of the 2010's, gaining several billion percent in gains. The stock market is on a 100 year long uptrend. Why? BECAUSE FIAT CURRENCIES ALWAYS GO DOWN! This is inflation. If we measure the market in terms of others assets instead of fiat, the Long Only strategy doesn't work anymore (or works less well).
Try this strategy on: Bitcoin/GLD (BTCUSD/GLD), the Eurodollar (EURUSD), and the S&P 500 measured in gold (SPY/GLD).
Bitcoin measured in gold (BTCUSD/GLD) still works with a Long Only strategy because Bitcoin increased in value over both USD and gold.
The Eurodollar (EURUSD) generally loses money no matter what, especially if you add any commission. This makes sense as they are both fiat currencies with similar inflation schedules.
Gold and the S&P 500 have gained roughly the same amount since ~2000. Some years will show better results for a long strategy, while others will favor a short strategy. Now look at just SPY or GLD (which are both measured in USD by default!) and you'll see the same trend again: a Long Only strategy crushes even when entering and exiting randomly.
=== " JUST TELL ME WHAT TO DO, YOU NERD! " ===
Bulls always win and Bears always lose because fiat currencies go to zero.
You're not underperforming a random number generator, are you?
EMA_cumulativeVolume_crossover[Strategy V2]This is variation of EMA_cumulativeVolume_crossover strategy.
instead of cumulative volume crossover, I have added the EMA to cumulative volume of same EMA length.
when EMA crossover EMACumulativeVolume , BUY
when already in LONG position and price crossing over EMACumulativeVolume*2 (orange line in the chart) , Add more
Partial Exit , when RSI 5 crossdown 90
Close All when EMA cross down EMACumulativeVolume
Note
Black Line on the chart is the historical value of EMACumulativeVolume . when EMA area is green and price touch this line closes above it , you can consider consider BUY
I have tested it on SPY , QQQ and UDOW on hourly chart.
EMA setting 25 is working for all of these.
but SPY produces better results on EMA 35 setting
warning
This strategy is published educational purposes only.
Divergence of Stocks Above MA50 v.s. US-Stock MarketEnglish:
This indicator has been developed as an early warning tool to estimate the probability of correction in the US stock market. It works best in the daily chart.
Function:
1.) "Index-line"
The underlying stock index is converted to a scale between 0% and 100% based on its 52-week highs and lows. Where 100% is closing price at 52-week high and 0% is closing price at 52-week low.
2nd) "Stocks Above MA50".
For each major stock index, there is an index that determines the percentage of stocks above its 50 moving average. For example, for the S&P 500, this is the S5FI.
3) "Divergence
In an efficient market, both lines (index and number of stocks above the 50 MA) would run more or less in sync. A new high in the index would also mean a new high in the stocks trading above the 50 moving average. Often, however, a correction in the index is announced when the number of stocks trading above their 50 MA do not make a new, or even a lower, high while the underlying index marks a new high. The divergence signal measures this divergence of the indices. The higher the bar, the more pronounced the divergence.
How to read the indicator?
If a divergence occurs, then the stops should be tightened. As with any indicator, false signals can occur because a divergence does not automatically lead to a correction. The higher the divergence is indicated, the higher the probability. The strength of a correction cannot be predicted with the indicator.
For which symbols does the indicator work?
The indicator works exclusively for the following symbols:
S&P500: SPX, SPY, ES1!, US500 Index above MA50: S5FI
Russel2000: IWM, US2000, RTY1!, RUT, IWO Index above MA50: R2FI
NASDAQ100: NDX, NAS100, NQ1!, US100, QQQ Index above MA50: NDFI
NASDAQ: IXIC, ONEQ, QCN1!, NDAQ Index above MA50: NCFI
NYSE: XAX, NYA Index above MA50: MMFI
DowJones100: DJX, DJI, DIA, MYM1!, YM1! Index above MA50: DIFI
DowJonesComp: DOW, IYY Index above MA50: DCFI
Deutsch:
Dieser Indikator ist als Frühwarninstrument zur Einschätzung der Korrekturwahrscheinlichkeit im US-Aktienmarkt entwickelt worden. Er funktioniert am besten im Tages-Chart.
Funktion:
1.) „Index-line“
Der zugrunde liegende Aktienindex wird bezogen auf seine 52Wochen Hochs und Tiefs in eine Skala zwischen 0% und 100% umgerechnet. Dabei sind 100% Schlusskurs auf 52-Wochen Hoch und 0% Schlusskurs auf 52-Wochen Tief.
2.) „Stocks Above MA50“
Zu jedem Hauptaktienindex gibt es einen Index, der den Prozentwert der Aktien über Ihrem 50 gleitenden Durchschnitt ermittelt. Beim S&P 500 ist das z.B. der S5FI.
3.) „Divergence“
In einem effizienten Markt würden beide Linien (Index und Anzahl Aktien über dem 50 MA) mehr oder weniger synchron laufen. Ein neues Hoch im Index würde auch ein neues Hoch bei den Aktien, die über dem 50 gleitenden Durchschnitt notieren, bedeuten. Oft jedoch kündigt sich eine Korrektur im Index an, wenn die Anzahl der Aktien, die über ihrem 50 MA notieren kein neues, oder sogar ein niedrigeres Hoch machen, während der zu Grunde liegende Index ein neues Hoch markiert. Das Divergenz-Signal misst diese auseinanderlaufen der Indices. Je höher der Balken, umso stärker ist die Divergenz ausgeprägt.
Wie ist der Indikator zu lesen?
Wenn eine Divergenz auftritt, dann sollten die Stopps enger herangezogen werden. Es kann wie bei jedem Indikator zu Fehlsignalen kommen, da eine Divergenz nicht automatisch zu einer Korrektur führen muss. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist um so höher, je höher die Divergenz angezeigt wird. Die Stärke einer Korrektur kann mit dem Indikator nicht prognostiziert werden.
Für welche Symbole funktioniert der Indikator?
Der Indikator funktioniert ausschließlich für folgende Symbole:
S&P500: SPX, SPY, ES1!, US500 Index über MA50: S5FI
Russel2000: IWM, US2000, RTY1!, RUT, IWO Index über MA50: R2FI
NASDAQ100: NDX, NAS100, NQ1!, US100, QQQ Index über MA50: NDFI
NASDAQ: IXIC, ONEQ, QCN1!, NDAQ Index über MA50: NCFI
NYSE: XAX, NYA Index über MA50: MMFI
DowJones100: DJX, DJI, DIA, MYM1!, YM1! Index über MA50: DIFI
DowJonesComp: DOW, IYY Index über MA50: DCFI
Indices trendsAccording to the Dow theory, indices must confirm each other. Based on this idea, I develop an indices trends indicator, including SPY, DIA, and QQQ. The indices trends were calculated based on the average of the short- (blue) and intermediate-term (orange) changes of indices moving average slopes. In addition, IWM trends are shown as a reference in gray color.
Use this indicator together with one of SPY, DIA, QQQ, or IWM to show the overall market conditions.
Trendflex - Another new Ehlers indicatorSource: Stocks and Commodities V38
Hooray! Another new John Ehlers indicator!
John claims this indicator is lag-less and uses the SPY on the Daily as an example.
This indicator is a slight modification of Reflex, which I have posted here
I think it's better for Stocks and ETFs than Reflex since it factors in long trends. It tends to keep you in winning trades for a long time.
I believe this indicator can be used for entries or exits, potentially both.
Entry
1. Entering Long positions at the pivot low points (Stocks and ETFs)
2. Entering Long when the Reflex crosses above the zero lines (Stocks, ETFs, Commodities )
Exit
1. Exiting Long positions at a new pivot high point (Stocks and ETFs)
2. Exiting Long when the Reflex crosses below the zero lines (Stocks, ETFs, Commodities )
In this example, I place a Long order on the SPY every time the Reflex crosses above the zero level and exit when it crosses below or pops my stop loss, set at 1.5 * Daily ATR.
2/3 Wins
+16.05%
Let me know in the comment section if you're able to use this in a strategy.
Reflex - A new Ehlers indicatorSource: Stocks and Commodities V38
Hooray! A new John Ehlers indicator!
John claims this indicator is lag-less and uses the SPY on the Daily as an example.
He states that drawing a line from peak to peak (or trough to trough) will correspond perfectly with the Asset.
I have to say I agree! There is typically one bar of lag or no lag at all!
I believe this indicator can be used for either entries or exits, but not both.
Entry
1. Entering Long positions at the pivot low points (Stocks and ETFs)
2. Entering Long when the Reflex crosses above the zero lines (Stocks, ETFs, Commodities)
Exit
1. Exiting Long positions at a new pivot high point (Stocks and ETFs)
2. Exiting Long when the Reflex crosses below the zero lines (Stocks, ETFs, Commodities)
In this example, I place a Long order on the SPY every time the Reflex crosses above the zero level and exit when it crosses below or pops my stop loss, set at 1.5 * Daily ATR.
4/6 Wins
+10.76%
For me, that's good enough to create a strategy and backtest on several Indices and ETFs, which is what I have a hunch this will work on.
I think there is a lot of promise from a single Indicator!
Let me know in the comment section if you're able to use this in a strategy.
Hide Extended Hours/non-intraday American BarsOnly works with American bar style.
Not works with Candles.
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This script can hide the extended hours/non-intraday bars and leave the intraday bars only, especially for future users, such as ES/NQ/RTY/YM, etc.,.
Now you can find the intraday support/resistance quite easily!
Example, as a ES investor, you can easily find the intraday support/resistance level ,which is almost equal to SPY / SPX , no longer need to check SPY / SPX separately again, saving your time a lot.
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IMPORTANT INSTRUCTION
In order to make the script work, you have to bring it to the most top visual layer.
Please do as the following steps:
Add the script to chart
Hover mouse on the script name, and tap the right-most 'more' button (which appears as 3 dots)
Select "Visual Order", then select "Bring to front".
Done!
Also, in order to have a better view effect and make the bars COMPLETELY "Hidden", you can adjust the hidden bar color in the "setting" menu to the exact color of your chart background.
Swing-Trade-Stocks SystemThis is a simple swing trade system inspired by sources on the internet. The rules are as follows:
Buy when first green arrow appears after 10ma above 30ma
Set stop-loss below most recent support
Set take-profit below most recent swing point high or wait until price closes below 30ma (red)
Short when first purple arrow appears after 10ma below 30ma
Set stop-loss above most recent resistance
Set take-profit above most recent swing point low or wait until price closes above 30ma (red)
The background color changes based on the direction of SPY. If SPY is going down (10ma < 30ma) the
background will be red and only short indicators (purple arrows) will appear. If SPY is going up (10ma > 30ma),
the background will be green and only long indicators (green arrows) will appear.
Happy trading!
Market Internals [Makit0] MARKET INTERNALS INDICATOR v0.5beta
Market Internals are suitable for day trade equity indices, named SPY or /ES, please do your own research about what they are and how to use them
This scripts plots the NYSE market internals charts as an indicator for an easy and full visualization of market internal structure all in one chart, useful for SPY and /ES trading
Description of the Market Internals
- TICK: NYSE stocks ticking up vs stocks ticking down, extreme values may point to trend continuation on trending days or reversal in non trending days, example of extreme values can be 800 and 1000
- ADD: NYSE stocks going up vs stocks going down, if price auctions around the zero line may be a non trend day, otherwise may be a trend day
- VOLD: NYSE volume of stocks up vs volume of stocks going down, identify clearly where the volume is going, as example if volume is flowing down may be a good idea no to place longs
- TRIN: NYSE up stocks vs down stocks ratio divided by up volume vs down volume ratio. A value of 1 indicates parity, below that the strength is on the long side, above the strength is in the short side.
A basic use of market internals may be looking for divergences, for example:
- /ES is trading in a range but ADD and VOLD are trending up nonstop, may /ES will break the range to the upside
- /ES is trading in a range and ADD and VOLD are trading around the zero line but got an extreme reading on TICK, may be a non trending day and the TICK extreme reading is at one of the extremes of the /ES range, may be a good probability trade to fade that move
- /ES is trading in a trend to the downside, ADD and VOLD too, you catch a good portion of the move but are fearful to flat and miss more gains, you see in the TICK a lot of extreme values below -800 so your're confident in the continuation of the downtrend, until the TICK goes beyond -1000 and you use that signal to go flat
Market internals give you context and confirmation, price in /ES may be trending but if market internals do not confirm the move may a reversal is on its way
Price is an advertise, you can see the real move in the structure below, in the behavior of the individual components of the market, those are the real questions:
- How many stocks are going up/down (ADD)
- How many volume is flowing up/down (VOLD)
- How many stocks are ticking up/down (TICK)
- What is the overall volume breath of the market (TRIN)
FEATURES:
- Plot one of the four basic market internal indices: TICK, ADD, VOLD and TRIN
- Show labels with values beyond an user defined threshold
- Show ZERO line
- Show user defined Dotted and Dashed lines
- Show user defined moving average
SETTINGS:
- Market internal: ticker to plot in the indicator, four options to choose from (TICK, ADD, VOLD and TRIN)
- Labels threshold: all values beyond this will be ploted as labels
- Dot lines at: two dotted lines will be plotted at this value above and below the zero line
- Dash lines at: two dashed lines will be plotted at this value above and below the zero line
- MA type: two options avaiable SMA (Simple Moving Average) or EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
- MA length: number of bars to calculate the moving average
- Show zero line: show or hide zero line
- Show dot line: show or hide dotted lines
- Show dash line: show or hide dashed lines
- Show labels: show or hide labels
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING
Hide extended hours/non-intraday barsEspecially for future users, such as ES/NQ/RTY/YM, etc., this script can hide the extended hours/non-intraday bars and leave the intraday bars only.
With this script , you can find the intraday support/resistance quite easily!
Example, if you are a ES investor, you can easily find the intraday support/resistance level ,which is almost equal to SPY, with this script, and no need to check SPY separately again , saving your time a lot.
Note: Please couple this script with American Bars. If you use candle charts, the upper/lower pins of the candle can't be hidden with the bars together, which is restricted by the code editor itself...
Kozlod - RSI Strategy - 1 minuteStarted to play with very simple strategies. Trying to find ones with optimal parameters which work well for certain symbols/timeframe.
Found that basic RSI strategy without any position management with high RSI length (65 in this script) works pretty good for 1m chart for few stocks.
It's also not bad for AAPL , SPY .
It might not work very good on it's not but can give you a pretty good base for more complicated indicators.
And remember:
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Willams %RwEMAspy
Was looking for something else when surfed into an old question
wanting %R 21 period with EMA 13 period of the %R signal
and being a rookie at this, made this code to post for them.
Tried to comment the script in such a way that other rookies
like me could make better sense of what is being done. Hope
this helps someone. I find it useful as one of my indicators for
trading.
Pinescript for tradingview.com user Tom1trader
All time frames.
Interpretation:
%R (Red) crosses above it's average (Blue) - bull
%R crosses below it's average - bear. Background
color changes green-up red-down with above crossings.
Most but not all of serious price movement takes place
from the time the %R (red) goes into oversold (or bought) and
exits again.
%R centerline crosses can also be useful.
I use various indicators and want all of the confirmation
that I can get for expectations BUT I never know what the
next bar will do and define my risks accordingly.
Sectors Relative Strength Normal DistributionI wrote this indicator as an attempt to see the Relative Strengths of different sectors in the same scale, but there is also other ways to do that.
This indicator plots the normal distribution for the 10 sectors of the SPY for the last X bars of the selected resolution, based on the selected comparative security. It shows which sectors are outperforming and underperforming the SPY (or any other security) relatively to each other by the given deviation.
MarketRSThe strength of a stock relative to the market (SPY) is an import indicator accumulation of a stock by institutionan funds, especially during a market decline. This indicator plot the ratio of a security/SPY and plots a fast (5 period) and slow (21 period) EMA.
MACD Volume VWAP Scalping (2min) by Obiii📘 Strategy Description (for TradingView)
MACD Volume VWAP Scalping Strategy (2-Minute Intraday Momentum)
This strategy is designed for scalpers and short-term intraday traders who focus on capturing small, high-probability moves during the most active hours of the trading session — typically between 9:45 AM and 11:30 AM (New York time).
The system combines three key momentum confirmations:
MACD crossovers to detect short-term trend shifts,
Volume spikes to validate real market participation, and
VWAP / EMA alignment to filter trades in the direction of the prevailing intraday trend.
🔹 Entry Logic
Long Entry:
MACD line crosses above the signal line
Both MACD and Signal are above zero
Current volume > average of the last 10 candles
Price is above VWAP and (optionally) above EMA 9 and EMA 20
Short Entry:
MACD line crosses below the signal line
Both MACD and Signal are below zero
Current volume > average of the last 10 candles
Price is below VWAP and (optionally) below EMA 9 and EMA 20
🎯 Exit Logic
Fixed Take Profit: +0.25%
Fixed Stop Loss: -0.15% to -0.20%
Optionally, switch to the 5-minute chart after entry to monitor momentum and manage exits more smoothly.
⚙️ Recommended Settings
Timeframe: 2 minutes (entries), 5 minutes (monitoring)
Market Session: 9:45 AM – 11:30 AM EST
Assets: Highly liquid instruments such as SPY, QQQ, NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, or large-cap momentum stocks.
💡 Notes
This is a momentum-based scalping strategy — precision and discipline are key.
It performs best in high-volume environments where clear direction emerges after the morning volatility settles.
The system can be fine-tuned for different profit targets, MACD settings, or volume thresholds depending on volatility.
A+ Trade Checklist (Bullish + Bearish Mode + Alerts) – Fixed v61. Trend direction (EMA alignment)
2. Relative Strength vs SPY (is your stock stronger than the market?)
3. Volume confirmation
4. RSI strength
5. Candle momentum
Dashboard — Vol & PriceDashboard for traders
Indicator Description
1. Prev Day High
What it shows: the previous trading day's high.
Why it shows: a resistance level. Many traders watch to see if the price will hold above or below this level. A breakout can signal buying strength.
2. Prev Day Low
What it shows: the previous day's low.
Why it shows: a support level. If the price breaks downwards, it signals weakness and a possible continuation of the decline.
3. Today
What it shows:
The difference between the current price and yesterday's close (in absolute values and as a percentage).
Color: green for an increase, red for a decrease.
Why it shows: immediately shows how strong a gap or movement is today relative to yesterday. This is an indicator of current momentum.
4. ADR, % (Average Daily Range)
What it shows: Average daily range (High – Low), expressed as a percentage of the closing price, for the selected period (default 7 days).
Why it's useful: To understand the "normal" volatility of an instrument. For example, if the ADR is 3%, then a 1% move is small, while a 6% move is very large.
5. ATR (Average True Range)
What it shows: Average fluctuation range (including gaps), in absolute points, for the specified period (default 7 days).
Why it's useful: A classic volatility indicator. Useful for setting stops, calculating position sizes, and identifying "noise" movements.
6. ATR (Today), %
What it shows: How much the current movement today (from yesterday's close to the current price) represents in % of the average ATR.
Why it shows: Shows whether the instrument has "played out" its average range. If the value is already >100%, there is a high probability that the movement will begin to slow.
7. Vol (Today)
What it shows:
Current trading volume for the day (in millions/billions).
Comparison with yesterday as a percentage (for example: 77.32M (-52.78%)).
Color: green if the volume is higher than yesterday; red if lower.
Why it shows:Quickly shows whether the market is active today. Volume = fuel for price movement.
8. Avg Vol (20d)
What it shows: Average daily volume over the last 20 trading days.
Why it's useful:"normal" activity level. It's a convenient backdrop for assessing today's turnover.
9. Rel. Vol (Today), % (Relative Volume)
What it shows: Deviation of the current volume from the average (20 days).
Formula: `(today / average - 1)` * 100`.
+30% = volume 30% above average, -40% = 40% below average.
Color: green for +, red for –.
Why it's useful:A key indicator for a trader. If RelVol > 100% (green), the market is "charged," and the movement is more significant. If low, activity is weak and movements are less reliable.
10. Normalized RS (Relative Strength)
What it shows: the relative strength of a stock to a selected benchmark (e.g., SPY), normalized by the period (default 7 days).
100 = same result as the market.
> 100 = the stock is stronger than the index.
<100 = weaker than the index.
Why it's needed: filtering ideas. Strong stocks rise faster when the market rises, weak stocks fall more sharply. This helps trade in the direction of the trend and select the best candidates.
In summary:
Prev High / Low — key support and resistance levels.
Today — an instant understanding of the current momentum.
ADR and ATR — volatility and potential movement.
ATR (Today) — how much the instrument has already "run."
Vol + Rel.Vol — activity and confirmation of the movement's strength.
RS — selecting strong/weak leaders against the market.
SMC ORB vs Pre-Market SPY/IWMStacks institutional confluences such as Smart Money Concepts, Inner Circle Trading, volatility, and structure.
Plots Premarket high/low and 15 minute Opening range
Plots the first sweep of Premarket high/low and any subsequent orb breaks
Local Hurst Slope [Dynamic Regime]1. HOW THE INDICATOR WORKS (Math → Market Edge)Step
Math
Market Intuition
1. Log-Returns
r_t = log(P_t / P_{t-1})
Removes scale, makes series stationary
2. R/S per τ
R = max(cum_dev) - min(cum_dev)
S = stdev(segment)
Measures memory strength over window τ
3. H(τ) = log(R/S) / log(τ)
Di Matteo (2007)
H > 0.5 → Trend memory
H < 0.5 → Mean-reversion
4. Slope = dH/d(log τ)
Linear regression of H vs log(τ)
Slope > 0.12 → Trend accelerating
Slope < -0.08 → Reversion emerging
LEADING EDGE: The slope changes 3–20 bars BEFORE price confirms
→ You enter before the crowd, exit before the trap
Slope > +0.12 + Strong Trend = Bullish = Long
Slope +0.05 to +0.12 = Weak Trend = Cautious = Hold/Trail
Slope -0.05 to +0.05 = Random = No Edge
Slope-0.08 to -0.05 = Weak Reversion = Bearish setup = Prepare Short
Slope < -0.08 = Strong Reversion = Bearish= Short
PRO TIPS
Only trade in direction of 200-day SMA
Filters false signals
Avoid trading 3 days before/after earnings
Volatility kills edge
Use on ETFs (SPY, QQQ)
Cleaner than single stocks
Combine with RSI(14)
RSI < 30 + Hurst short = nuclear reversal
Volume Area 80 Rule Pro - Adaptive RTHSummary in one paragraph
Adaptive value area 80 percent rule for index futures large cap equities liquid crypto and major FX on intraday timeframes. It focuses activity only when multiple context gates align. It is original because the classic prior day value area traverse is fused with a daily regime classifier that remaps the operating parameters in real time.
Scope and intent
• Markets. ES NQ SPY QQQ large cap equities BTC ETH major FX pairs and other liquid RTH instruments
• Timeframes. One minute to one hour with daily regime context
• Default demo used in the publication. ES1 on five minutes
• Purpose. Trade only the balanced days where the 80 percent traverse has edge while standing aside or tightening rules during trend or shock
Originality and usefulness
• Unique fusion. Prior day value area logic plus a rolling daily regime classifier using percentile ranks of realized volatility and ADX. The regime remaps hold time end of window stop buffer and value area coverage on each session
• Failure mode addressed. False starts during strong trend or shock sessions and weak traverses during quiet grind
• Testability. All gates are visible in Inputs and debug flags can be plotted so users can verify why a suggestion appears
• Portable yardstick. The regime uses ATR divided by close and ADX percent ranks which behave consistently across symbols
Method overview in plain language
The script builds the prior session profile during regular trading hours. At the first regular bar it freezes yesterday value area low value area high and point of control. It then evaluates the current session open location the first thirty minute volume rank the open gap rank and an opening drive test. In parallel a daily series classifies context into Calm Balance Trend or Shock from rolling percentile ranks of realized volatility and ADX. The classifier scales the rules. Calm uses longer holds and a slightly wider value area. Trend and Shock shorten the window reduce holds and enlarge stop buffers.
Base measures
• Range basis. True Range smoothed over a configurable length on both the daily and intraday series
• Return basis. Not required. ATR over close is the unit for regime strength
Components
• Prior Value Area Engine. Builds yesterday value area low value area high and point of control from a binned volume profile with automatic TPO fallback and minimum integrity guards
• Opening Location. Detects whether the session opens above the prior value area or below it
• Inside Hold Counter. Counts consecutive bars that hold inside the value area after a re entry
• Volume Gate. Percentile of the first thirty minutes volume over a rolling sample
• Gap Gate. Percentile rank of the regular session open gap over a rolling sample
• Drive Gate. Opening drive check using a multiple of intraday ATR
• Regime Classifier. Percentile ranks of daily ATR over close and daily ADX classify Calm Balance Trend Shock and remap parameters
• Session windows optional. Windows follow the chart exchange time
Fusion rule
Minimum satisfied gates approach. A re entry must hold inside the value area for a regime scaled number of bars while the volume gap and drive gates allow the setup. The regime simultaneously scales value area coverage end minute time stop and stop buffer.
Signal rule
• Long suggestion appears when price opens below yesterday value area then re enters and holds for the required bars while all gates allow the setup
• Short suggestion appears when price opens above yesterday value area then re enters and holds for the required bars while all gates allow the setup
• WAIT shows implicitly when any required gate is missing
• Exit labels mark target touch stop touch or a time based close
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Signal timeframe. Uses the chart by default
• Session windows optional. Start and end minutes inside regular trading hours
• Invert direction is not used. The logic is symmetric
Logic
• Hold bars inside value area. Typical range 3 to 12. Raising it reduces trades and favors better traverses. Lowering it increases frequency and risk of false starts
• Earliest minute since RTH open and Latest minute since RTH open. Typical range 0 to 390. Reducing the latest minute cuts late session trades
• Time stop bars after entry. Typical range 6 to 30. Larger values give setups more room
Filters
• Value area coverage. Typical range 0.70 to 0.85. Higher coverage narrows the traverse but accepts fewer days
• Bin size in ticks. Typical range 1 to 8. Larger bins stabilize noisy profiles
• Stop buffer ticks beyond edge. Typical range 2 to 20. Larger buffers survive noise
• First thirty minute volume percentile. Typical range 0.30 to 0.70. Higher values require more active opens
• Gap filter percentile. Typical range 0.70 to 0.95. Lower values block more gap days
• Opening drive multiple and bars. Higher multiple or longer bars block strong directional opens
Adaptivity
• Lookback days for regime ranks. Typical 150 to 500
• Calm RV percentile. Typical 25 to 45
• Trend ADX percentile. Typical 55 to 75
• Shock RV percentile. Typical 75 to 90
• End minute ratio in Trend and Shock. Typical 0.5 to 0.8
• Hold and Time stop scales per regime. Use values near one to keep behavior close to static settings
Realism and responsible publication
• No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes
• Shapes can move while a bar forms and settle on close
• Sessions use the chart exchange time
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Economic releases and thin liquidity can break the balance premise
• Gap heavy symbols may work better with stronger gap filters and a True Range focus
• Very quiet regimes reduce signal contrast. Consider longer windows or higher thresholds
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. Test in simulation before any live use.






















