Climax Absorption Engine [AlgoPoint]Overview
Have you ever noticed that during a sharp, fast-moving trend, the single candle with the highest volume often appears right at the end, just before the price reverses? This is no coincidence. It's the footprint of a Climax Event.
This indicator is designed to detect these critical moments of maximum panic (capitulation) and maximum euphoria (FOMO). These are the moments when retail traders are driven by emotion, creating a massive pool of liquidity. The "Climax Absorption Engine" identifies when Smart Money is likely absorbing this liquidity to enter large positions against the crowd, right before a potential reversal.
It's a tool built not just on mathematical formulas, but on the principles of market psychology and smart money activity.
How It Works: The 3-Step Logic
The indicator uses a sequential, three-step process to identify high-probability reversal setups:
1. Momentum Move Detection: First, the engine identifies a period of strong, directional momentum. It looks for a series of consecutive, same-colored candles and confirms that the move is backed by a steeply sloped moving average. This ensures we are only looking for climactic events at the end of a significant, non-random move.
2. Climax Candle Identification: Within this momentum move, the indicator scans for a candle with abnormally high volume—a volume spike that is significantly larger than the recent average. This candle is marked on your chart with a diamond shape and is identified as the Climax Candle. This is the point of peak emotion and the primary area of interest. No signal is generated yet.
3. Absorption & Reversal Confirmation: A climax is a warning, not a signal. The final signal is only triggered after the market confirms the reversal.
- For a BUY Signal: After a bearish (red) Climax Candle, the indicator waits for a subsequent green candle to close decisively above the midpoint of the Climax Candle. This confirms that the panic selling has been absorbed by buyers.
- For a SELL Signal: After a bullish (green) Climax Candle, it waits for a subsequent red candle to close decisively below the midpoint. This confirms that the euphoric buying has evaporated.
How to Interpret & Use This Indicator
- The Diamond Shape: A diamond shape on your chart is an early warning. It signifies that a climax event has occurred and the underlying trend is exhausted. This is the time to pay close attention and prepare for a potential reversal.
- The BUY/SELL Labels: These are the final, actionable signals. They appear only after the reversal has been confirmed by price action.
- A BUY signal suggests that capitulation selling is over, and buyers have absorbed the pressure.
- A SELL signal suggests that FOMO buying is over, and sellers are now in control.
Key Settings
- Momentum Detection: Adjust the number of consecutive bars and the EMA slope required to define a valid momentum move.
- Climax Detection: Fine-tune the sensitivity of the volume spike detection using the Volume Multiplier. Higher values will find only the most extreme events.
- Confirmation Window: Define how many bars the indicator should wait for a reversal candle after a climax event before the setup is cancelled.
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Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster [BackQuant]Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster
Plain-English overview
This tool projects a cone of plausible future prices by combining two ideas that traders already use intuitively: seasonality and uncertainty. It watches how your market typically behaves around this calendar date, turns that seasonal tendency into a small daily “drift,” then runs many randomized price paths forward to estimate where price could land tomorrow, next week, or a month from now. The result is a probability cone with a clear expected path, plus optional overlays that show how past years tended to move from this point on the calendar. It is a planning tool, not a crystal ball: the goal is to quantify ranges and odds so you can size, place stops, set targets, and time entries with more realism.
What Monte Carlo is and why quants rely on it
• Definition . Monte Carlo simulation is a way to answer “what might happen next?” when there is randomness in the system. Instead of producing a single forecast, it generates thousands of alternate futures by repeatedly sampling random shocks and adding them to a model of how prices evolve.
• Why it is used . Markets are noisy. A single point forecast hides risk. Monte Carlo gives a distribution of outcomes so you can reason in probabilities: the median path, the 68% band, the 95% band, tail risks, and the chance of hitting a specific level within a horizon.
• Core strengths in quant finance .
– Path-dependent questions : “What is the probability we touch a stop before a target?” “What is the expected drawdown on the way to my objective?”
– Pricing and risk : Useful for path-dependent options, Value-at-Risk (VaR), expected shortfall (CVaR), stress paths, and scenario analysis when closed-form formulas are unrealistic.
– Planning under uncertainty : Portfolio construction and rebalancing rules can be tested against a cloud of plausible futures rather than a single guess.
• Why it fits trading workflows . It turns gut feel like “seasonality is supportive here” into quantitative ranges: “median path suggests +X% with a 68% band of ±Y%; stop at Z has only ~16% odds of being tagged in N days.”
How this indicator builds its probability cone
1) Seasonal pattern discovery
The script builds two day-of-year maps as new data arrives:
• A return map where each calendar day stores an exponentially smoothed average of that day’s log return (yesterday→today). The smoothing (90% old, 10% new) behaves like an EWMA, letting older seasons matter while adapting to new information.
• A volatility map that tracks the typical absolute return for the same calendar day.
It calculates the day-of-year carefully (with leap-year adjustment) and indexes into a 365-slot seasonal array so “March 18” is compared with past March 18ths. This becomes the seasonal bias that gently nudges simulations up or down on each forecast day.
2) Choice of randomness engine
You can pick how the future shocks are generated:
• Daily mode uses a Gaussian draw with the seasonal bias as the mean and a volatility that comes from realized returns, scaled down to avoid over-fitting. It relies on the Box–Muller transform internally to turn two uniform random numbers into one normal shock.
• Weekly mode uses bootstrap sampling from the seasonal return history (resampling actual historical daily drifts and then blending in a fraction of the seasonal bias). Bootstrapping is robust when the empirical distribution has asymmetry or fatter tails than a normal distribution.
Both modes seed their random draws deterministically per path and day, which makes plots reproducible bar-to-bar and avoids flickering bands.
3) Volatility scaling to current conditions
Markets do not always live in average volatility. The engine computes a simple volatility factor from ATR(20)/price and scales the simulated shocks up or down within sensible bounds (clamped between 0.5× and 2.0×). When the current regime is quiet, the cone narrows; when ranges expand, the cone widens. This prevents the classic mistake of projecting calm markets into a storm or vice versa.
4) Many futures, summarized by percentiles
The model generates a matrix of price paths (capped at 100 runs for performance inside TradingView), each path stepping forward for your selected horizon. For each forecast day it sorts the simulated prices and pulls key percentiles:
• 5th and 95th → approximate 95% band (outer cone).
• 16th and 84th → approximate 68% band (inner cone).
• 50th → the median or “expected path.”
These are drawn as polylines so you can immediately see central tendency and dispersion.
5) A historical overlay (optional)
Turn on the overlay to sketch a dotted path of what a purely seasonal projection would look like for the next ~30 days using only the return map, no randomness. This is not a forecast; it is a visual reminder of the seasonal drift you are biasing toward.
Inputs you control and how to think about them
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Price Series for Calculation . The source series, typically close.
• Enable Probability Forecasts . Master switch for simulation and drawing.
• Simulation Iterations . Requested number of paths to run. Internally capped at 100 to protect performance, which is generally enough to estimate the percentiles for a trading chart. If you need ultra-smooth bands, shorten the horizon.
• Forecast Days Ahead . The length of the cone. Longer horizons dilute seasonal signal and widen uncertainty.
• Probability Bands . Draw all bands, just 95%, just 68%, or a custom level (display logic remains 68/95 internally; the custom number is for labeling and color choice).
• Pattern Resolution . Daily leans on day-of-year effects like “turn-of-month” or holiday patterns. Weekly biases toward day-of-week tendencies and bootstraps from history.
• Volatility Scaling . On by default so the cone respects today’s range context.
Plotting & UI
• Probability Cone . Plots the outer and inner percentile envelopes.
• Expected Path . Plots the median line through the cone.
• Historical Overlay . Dotted seasonal-only projection for context.
• Band Transparency/Colors . Customize primary (outer) and secondary (inner) band colors and the mean path color. Use higher transparency for cleaner charts.
What appears on your chart
• A cone starting at the most recent bar, fanning outward. The outer lines are the ~95% band; the inner lines are the ~68% band.
• A median path (default blue) running through the center of the cone.
• An info panel on the final historical bar that summarizes simulation count, forecast days, number of seasonal patterns learned, the current day-of-year, expected percentage return to the median, and the approximate 95% half-range in percent.
• Optional historical seasonal path drawn as dotted segments for the next 30 bars.
How to use it in trading
1) Position sizing and stop logic
The cone translates “volatility plus seasonality” into distances.
• Put stops outside the inner band if you want only ~16% odds of a stop-out due to noise before your thesis can play.
• Size positions so that a test of the inner band is survivable and a test of the outer band is rare but acceptable.
• If your target sits inside the 68% band at your horizon, the payoff is likely modest; outside the 68% but inside the 95% can justify “one-good-push” trades; beyond the 95% band is a low-probability flyer—consider scaling plans or optionality.
2) Entry timing with seasonal bias
When the median path slopes up from this calendar date and the cone is relatively narrow, a pullback toward the lower inner band can be a high-quality entry with a tight invalidation. If the median slopes down, fade rallies toward the upper band or step aside if it clashes with your system.
3) Target selection
Project your time horizon to N bars ahead, then pick targets around the median or the opposite inner band depending on your style. You can also anchor dynamic take-profits to the moving median as new bars arrive.
4) Scenario planning & “what-ifs”
Before events, glance at the cone: if the 95% band already spans a huge range, trade smaller, expect whips, and avoid placing stops at obvious band edges. If the cone is unusually tight, consider breakout tactics and be ready to add if volatility expands beyond the inner band with follow-through.
5) Options and vol tactics
• When the cone is tight : Prefer long gamma structures (debit spreads) only if you expect a regime shift; otherwise premium selling may dominate.
• When the cone is wide : Debit structures benefit from range; credit spreads need wider wings or smaller size. Align with your separate IV metrics.
Reading the probability cone like a pro
• Cone slope = seasonal drift. Upward slope means the calendar has historically favored positive drift from this date, downward slope the opposite.
• Cone width = regime volatility. A widening fan tells you that uncertainty grows fast; a narrow cone says the market typically stays contained.
• Mean vs. price gap . If spot trades well above the median path and the upper band, mean-reversion risk is high. If spot presses the lower inner band in an up-sloping cone, you are in the “buy fear” zone.
• Touches and pierces . Touching the inner band is common noise; piercing it with momentum signals potential regime change; the outer band should be rare and often brings snap-backs unless there is a structural catalyst.
Methodological notes (what the code actually does)
• Log returns are used for additivity and better statistical behavior: sim_ret is applied via exp(sim_ret) to evolve price.
• Seasonal arrays are updated online with EWMA (90/10) so the model keeps learning as each bar arrives.
• Leap years are handled; indexing still normalizes into a 365-slot map so the seasonal pattern remains stable.
• Gaussian engine (Daily mode) centers shocks on the seasonal bias with a conservative standard deviation.
• Bootstrap engine (Weekly mode) resamples from observed seasonal returns and adds a fraction of the bias, which captures skew and fat tails better.
• Volatility adjustment multiplies each daily shock by a factor derived from ATR(20)/price, clamped between 0.5 and 2.0 to avoid extreme cones.
• Performance guardrails : simulations are capped at 100 paths; the probability cone uses polylines (no heavy fills) and only draws on the last confirmed bar to keep charts responsive.
• Prerequisite data : at least ~30 seasonal entries are required before the model will draw a cone; otherwise it waits for more history.
Strengths and limitations
• Strengths :
– Probabilistic thinking replaces single-point guessing.
– Seasonality adds a small but meaningful directional bias that many markets exhibit.
– Volatility scaling adapts to the current regime so the cone stays realistic.
• Limitations :
– Seasonality can break around structural changes, policy shifts, or one-off events.
– The number of paths is performance-limited; percentile estimates are good for trading, not for academic precision.
– The model assumes tomorrow’s randomness resembles recent randomness; if regime shifts violently, the cone will lag until the EWMA adapts.
– Holidays and missing sessions can thin the seasonal sample for some assets; be cautious with very short histories.
Tuning guide
• Horizon : 10–20 bars for tactical trades; 30+ for swing planning when you care more about broad ranges than precise targets.
• Iterations : The default 100 is enough for stable 5/16/50/84/95 percentiles. If you crave smoother lines, shorten the horizon or run on higher timeframes.
• Daily vs. Weekly : Daily for equities and crypto where month-end and turn-of-month effects matter; Weekly for futures and FX where day-of-week behavior is strong.
• Volatility scaling : Keep it on. Turn off only when you intentionally want a “pure seasonality” cone unaffected by current turbulence.
Workflow examples
• Swing continuation : Cone slopes up, price pulls into the lower inner band, your system fires. Enter near the band, stop just outside the outer line for the next 3–5 bars, target near the median or the opposite inner band.
• Fade extremes : Cone is flat or down, price gaps to the upper outer band on news, then stalls. Favor mean-reversion toward the median, size small if volatility scaling is elevated.
• Event play : Before CPI or earnings on a proxy index, check cone width. If the inner band is already wide, cut size or prefer options structures that benefit from range.
Good habits
• Pair the cone with your entry engine (breakout, pullback, order flow). Let Monte Carlo do range math; let your system do signal quality.
• Do not anchor blindly to the median; recalc after each bar. When the cone’s slope flips or width jumps, the plan should adapt.
• Validate seasonality for your symbol and timeframe; not every market has strong calendar effects.
Summary
The Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster wraps institutional risk planning into a single overlay: a data-driven seasonal drift, realistic volatility scaling, and a probabilistic cone that answers “where could we be, with what odds?” within your trading horizon. Use it to place stops where randomness is less likely to take you out, to set targets aligned with realistic travel, and to size positions with confidence born from distributions rather than hunches. It will not predict the future, but it will keep your decisions anchored to probabilities—the language markets actually speak.
Information-Geometric Market DynamicsInformation-Geometric Market Dynamics
The Information Field: A Geometric Approach to Market Dynamics
By: DskyzInvestments
Foreword: Beyond the Shadows on the Wall
If you have traded for any length of time, you know " the feeling ." It is the frustration of a perfect setup that fails, the whipsaw that stops you out just before the real move, the nagging sense that the chart is telling you only half the story. For decades, technical analysis has relied on interpreting the shadows—the patterns left behind by price. We draw lines on these shadows, apply indicators to them, and hope they reveal the future.
But what if we could stop looking at the shadows and, instead, analyze the object casting them?
This script introduces a new paradigm for market analysis: Information-Geometric Market Dynamics (IGMD) . The core premise of IGMD is that the price chart is merely a one-dimensional projection of a much richer, higher-dimensional reality—an " information field " generated by the collective actions and beliefs of all market participants.
This is not just another collection of indicators. It is a unified framework for measuring the geometry of the market's information field—its memory, its complexity, its uncertainty, its causal flows—and making high-probability decisions based on that deeper reality. By fusing advanced mathematical and informational concepts, IGMD provides a multi-faceted lens through which to view market behavior, moving beyond simple price action into the very structure of market information itself.
Prepare to move beyond the flatland of the price chart. Welcome to the information field.
The IGMD Framework: A Multi-Kernel Approach
What is a Kernel? The Heart of Transformation
In mathematics and data science, a kernel is a powerful and elegant concept. At its core, a kernel is a function that takes complex, often inscrutable data and transforms it into a more useful format. Think of it as a specialized lens or a mathematical "probe." You cannot directly measure abstract concepts like "market memory" or "trend quality" by looking at a price number. First, you must process the raw price data through a specific mathematical machine—a kernel—that is designed to output a measurement of that specific property. Kernels operate by performing a sort of "similarity test," projecting data into a higher-dimensional space where hidden patterns and relationships become visible and measurable.
Why do creators use them? We use kernels to extract features —meaningful pieces of information—that are not explicitly present in the raw data. They are the essential tools for moving beyond surface-level analysis into the very DNA of market behavior. A simple moving average can tell you the average price; a suite of well-chosen kernels can tell you about the character of the price action itself.
The Alchemist's Challenge: The Art of Fusion
Using a single kernel is a challenge. Using five distinct, computationally demanding mathematical engines in unison is an immense undertaking. The true difficulty—and artistry—lies not just in using one kernel, but in fusing the outputs of many . Each kernel provides a different perspective, and they can often give conflicting signals. One kernel might detect a strong trend, while another signals rising chaos and uncertainty. The IGMD script's greatest strength is its ability to act as this alchemist, synthesizing these disparate viewpoints through a weighted fusion process to produce a single, coherent picture of the market's state. It required countless hours of testing and calibration to balance the influence of these five distinct analytical engines so they work in harmony rather than cacophony.
The Five Kernels of Market Dynamics
The IGMD script is built upon a foundation of five distinct kernels, each chosen to probe a unique and critical dimension of the market's information field.
1. The Wavelet Kernel (The "Microscope")
What it is: The Wavelet Kernel is a signal processing function designed to decompose a signal into different frequency scales. Unlike a Fourier Transform that analyzes the entire signal at once, the wavelet slides across the data, providing information about both what frequencies are present and when they occurred.
The Kernels I Use:
Haar Kernel: The simplest wavelet, a square-wave shape defined by the coefficients . It excels at detecting sharp, sudden changes.
Daubechies 2 (db2) Kernel: A more complex and smoother wavelet shape that provides a better balance for analyzing the nuanced ebb and flow of typical market trends.
How it Works in the Script: This kernel is applied iteratively. It first separates the finest "noise" (detail d1) from the first level of trend (approximation a1). It then takes the trend a1 and repeats the process, extracting the next level of cycle (d2) and trend (a2), and so on. This hierarchical decomposition allows us to separate short-term noise from the long-term market "thesis."
2. The Hurst Exponent Kernel (The "Memory Gauge")
What it is: The Hurst Exponent is derived from a statistical analysis kernel that measures the "long-term memory" or persistence of a time series. It is the definitive measure of whether a series is trending (H > 0.5), mean-reverting (H < 0.5), or random (H = 0.5).
How it Works in the Script: The script employs a method based on Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis. It calculates the average range of price movements over increasingly larger time lags (m1, m2, m4, m8...). The slope of the line plotting log(range) vs. log(lag) is the Hurst Exponent. Applying this complex statistical analysis not to the raw price, but to the clean, wavelet-decomposed trend lines, is a key innovation of IGMD.
3. The Fractal Dimension Kernel (The "Complexity Compass")
What it is: This kernel measures the geometric complexity or "jaggedness" of a price path, based on the principles of fractal geometry. A straight line has a dimension of 1; a chaotic, space-filling line approaches a dimension of 2.
How it Works in the Script: We use a version based on Ehlers' Fractal Dimension Index (FDI). It calculates the rate of price change over a full lookback period (N3) and compares it to the sum of the rates of change over the two halves of that period (N1 + N2). The formula d = (log(N1 + N2) - log(N3)) / log(2) quantifies how much "longer" and more convoluted the price path was than a simple straight line. This kernel is our primary filter for tradeable (low complexity) vs. untradeable (high complexity) conditions.
4. The Shannon Entropy Kernel (The "Uncertainty Meter")
What it is: This kernel comes from Information Theory and provides the purest mathematical measure of information, surprise, or uncertainty within a system. It is not a measure of volatility; a market moving predictably up by 10 points every bar has high volatility but zero entropy .
How it Works in the Script: The script normalizes price returns by the ATR, categorizes them into a discrete number of "bins" over a lookback window, and forms a probability distribution. The Shannon Entropy H = -Σ(p_i * log(p_i)) is calculated from this distribution. A low H means returns are predictable. A high H means returns are chaotic. This kernel is our ultimate gauge of market conviction.
5. The Transfer Entropy Kernel (The "Causality Probe")
What it is: This is by far the most advanced and computationally intensive kernel in the script. Transfer Entropy is a non-parametric measure of directed information flow between two time series. It moves beyond correlation to ask: "Does knowing the past of Volume genuinely reduce our uncertainty about the future of Price?"
How it Works in the Script: To make this work, the script discretizes both price returns and the chosen "driver" (e.g., OBV) into three states: "up," "down," or "neutral." It then builds complex conditional probability tables to measure the flow of information in both directions. The Net Transfer Entropy (TE Driver→Price minus TE Price→Driver) gives us a direct measure of causality . A positive score means the driver is leading price, confirming the validity of the move. This is a profound leap beyond traditional indicator analysis.
Chapter 3: Fusion & Interpretation - The Field Score & Dashboard
Each kernel is a specialist providing a piece of the puzzle. The Field Score is where they are fused into a single, comprehensive reading. It's a weighted sum of the normalized scores from all five kernels, producing a single number from -1 (maximum bearish information field) to +1 (maximum bullish information field). This is the ultimate "at-a-glance" metric for the market's net state, and it is interpreted through the dashboard.
The Dashboard: Your Mission Control
Field Score & Regime: The master metric and its plain-English interpretation ("Uptrend Field", "Downtrend Field", "Transitional").
Kernel Readouts (Wave Align, H(w), FDI, etc.): The live scores of each individual kernel. This allows you to see why the Field Score is what it is. A high Field Score with all components in agreement (all green or red) is a state of High Coherence and represents a high-quality setup.
Market Context: Standard metrics like RSI and Volume for additional confluence.
Signals: The raw and adjusted confluence counts and the final, calculated probability scores for potential long and short entries.
Pattern: Shows the dominant candlestick pattern detected within the currently forming APEX range box and its calculated confidence percentage.
Chapter 4: Mastering the Controls - The Inputs Menu
Every parameter is a lever to fine-tune the IGMD engine.
📊 Wavelet Transform: Kernel ( Haar for sharp moves, db2 for smooth trends) and Scales (depth of analysis) let you tune the script's core microscope to your asset's personality.
📈 Hurst Exponent: The Window determines if you're assessing short-term or long-term market memory.
🔍 Fractal Dimension & ⚡ Entropy Volatility: Adjust the lookback windows to make these kernels more or less sensitive to recent price action. Always keep "Normalize by ATR" enabled for Entropy for consistent results.
🔄 Transfer Entropy: Driver lets you choose what causal force to measure (e.g., OBV, Volume, or even an external symbol like VIX). The throttle setting is a crucial performance tool, allowing you to balance precision with script speed.
⚡ Field Fusion • Weights: This is where you can customize the model's "brain." Increase the weights for the kernels that best align with your trading philosophy (e.g., w_hurst for trend followers, w_fdi for chop avoiders).
📊 Signal Engine: Mode offers presets from Conservative to Aggressive . Min Confluence sets your evidence threshold. Dynamic Confluence is a powerful feature that automatically adapts this threshold to the market regime.
🎨 Visuals & 📏 Support/Resistance: These inputs give you full control over the chart's appearance, allowing you to toggle every visual element for a setup that is as clean or as data-rich as you desire.
Chapter 5: Reading the Battlefield - On-Chart Visuals
Pattern Boxes (The Large Rectangles): These are not simple range boxes. They appear when the Field Score crosses a significance threshold, signaling a potential ignition point.
Color: The color reflects the dominant candlestick pattern that has occurred within that box's duration (e.g., green for Bull Engulf).
Label: Displays the dominant pattern, its duration in bars, and a calculated Confidence % based on field strength and pattern clarity.
Bar Pattern Boxes (The Small Boxes): If enabled, these highlight individual, significant candlestick patterns ( BE for Bull Engulf, H for Hammer) on a bar-by-bar basis.
Signal Markers (▲ and ▼): These appear only when the Signal Engine's criteria are all met. The number is the calculated Probability Score .
RR Rails (Dashed Lines): When a signal appears, these lines automatically plot the Entry, Stop Loss (based on ATR), and two Take Profit targets (based on Risk/Reward ratios). They dynamically break and disappear as price touches each level.
Support & Resistance Lines: Plots of the highest high ( Resistance ) and lowest low ( Support ) over a lookback, providing key structural levels.
Chapter 6: Development Philosophy & A Final Word
One single question: " What is the market really doing? " It represents a triumph of complexity, blending concepts from signal processing, chaos theory, and information theory into a cohesive framework. It is offered for educational and analytical purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Its goal is to elevate your analysis from interpreting flat shadows to measuring the rich, geometric reality of the market's information field.
As the great mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot , father of fractal geometry, noted:
"Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line."
Neither does the market. IGMD is a tool designed to navigate that beautiful, complex, and fractal reality.
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
OBV Breakout Screener (By Tarso)1. Purpose of the Indicator
The "Advanced OBV Breakout Screener" is a specialized tool designed to find a powerful bullish signal. It scans for assets where buying pressure is increasing significantly, even though the price has not yet broken out.
The core strategy is to identify assets where:
Volume is leading Price: The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has already broken its recent high.
Price is still contained: The asset's price has not yet broken its recent high.
This setup helps you find potential trading opportunities right before a possible upward move.
2. How to Set Up the Indicator
First, you need to add the script to your TradingView account.
Open any chart on TradingView.
Click on the "Pine Editor" tab at the bottom of the screen.
Delete any existing code and paste the entire "Advanced OBV Breakout Screener" script into the editor.
Click "Add to chart". The indicator will now appear in a separate panel below your main price chart.
3. How to Use it with the Pine Screener (Step-by-Step)
This is the main purpose of the indicator. The script does all the complex analysis and provides a simple "1" (Signal is ON) or "0" (Signal is OFF). You only need to set up one filter.
Open the Stock Screener (or Crypto/Forex Screener).
Click the Filters button to open the settings panel.
Ensure you are on the Pine Screener tab (this allows you to filter using custom indicators).
In the indicator selection menu (it might say "Select Indicator..."), find and choose Advanced OBV Breakout Screener from your list.
Now, configure the single filter condition as follows:
In the first box, select Advanced Breakout Signal.
In the second box, select Equal to.
In the third box, select Number and type 1.
Your filter setup should look clean and simple, like this:
That's it! The screener will now display a list of all assets that currently meet the "Advanced Breakout" criteria for the timeframe you have selected (e.g., Daily, 4h, 1h).
4. Configuring the Lookback Period
By default, the indicator analyzes the last 20 periods. If you want to change this (for example, to scan for breakouts over 50 days), you must adjust it in the indicator's settings on your chart.
Go back to your chart view.
Find the "Advanced OBV Breakout Screener" panel.
Click the Settings icon (⚙️) next to the indicator's name.
In the "Inputs" tab, change the "Lookback Period (days)" to your desired value.
Click "OK".
The Pine Screener will automatically use this new setting for its market scan.
5. Understanding the On-Chart Visuals
When you add the indicator to your chart, you will see:
Blue Line: This is the On-Balance Volume (OBV).
Red Stepped Line: This represents the highest value the OBV has reached during the lookback period. A breakout happens when the blue line moves above this red line.
Green Triangle (▲): This symbol appears below a price candle whenever the full "Advanced Breakout" condition (OBV breakout + Price containment) is met, giving you a clear visual confirmation.
thors_forex_factory_utilityLibrary "forex_factory_utility"
Supporting Utility Library for the Live Economic Calendar by toodegrees Indicator; responsible for data handling, and plotting news event data.
isLeapYear()
Finds if it's currently a leap year or not.
Returns: Returns True if the current year is a leap year.
daysMonth(M)
Provides the days in a given month of the year, adjusted during leap years.
Parameters:
M (int) : Month in numerical integer format (i.e. Jan=1).
Returns: Days in the provided month.
MMM(M)
Converts a month from a numerical integer format to a MMM format (i.e. 'Jan').
Parameters:
M (int) : Month in numerical integer format (i.e. Jan=1).
Returns: Month in MMM format (i.e. 'Jan').
dow(D)
Converts a numbered day of the week string in format to 'DDD' format (i.e. "1" = Sun).
Parameters:
D (string) : Numbered day of the week from 1 to 7, starting on Sunday.
Returns: Returns the day of the week in 'DDD' format (i.e. "Fri").
size(S, N)
Converts a size string into the corresponding Pine Script v5 format, or N times smaller/bigger.
Parameters:
S (string) : Size string: "Tiny", "Small", "Normal", "Large", or "Huge".
N (int) : Size variation, can be positive (larger than S), or negative (smaller than S).
Returns: Size string in Pine Script v5 format.
lineStyle(S)
Converts a line style string into the corresponding Pine Script v5 format.
Parameters:
S (string) : Line style string: "Dashed", "Dotted" or "Solid".
Returns: Line style string in Pine Script v5 format.
lineTrnsp(S)
Converts a transparency style string into the corresponding integer value.
Parameters:
S (string) : Line style string: "Light", "Medium" or "Heavy".
Returns: Transparency integer.
boxLoc(X, Y)
Converts position strings of X and Y into a table position in Pine Script v5 format.
Parameters:
X (string) : X-axis string: "Left", "Center", or "Right".
Y (string) : Y-axis string: "Top", "Middle", or "Bottom".
Returns: Table location string in Pine Script v5 format.
method bubbleSort_NewsTOD(N)
Performs bubble sort on a Forex Factory News array of all news from the same date, ordering them in ascending order based on the time of the day.
Namespace types: array
Parameters:
N (array) : Forex Factory News array.
Returns: void
bubbleSort_News(N)
Performs bubble sort on a Forex Factory News array, ordering them in ascending order based on the time of the day, and date.
Parameters:
N (array) : Forex Factory News array.
Returns: Sorted Forex Factory News array.
weekNews(N, C, I)
Creates a Forex Factory News array containing the current week's Forex Factory News.
Parameters:
N (array) : Forex Factory News array containing this week's unfiltered Forex Factory News.
C (array) : Currency filter array (string array).
I (array) : Impact filter array (color array).
Returns: Forex Factory News array containing the current week's Forex Factory News.
todayNews(W, D, M)
Creates a Forex Factory News array containing the current day's Forex Factory News.
Parameters:
W (array) : Forex Factory News array containing this week's Forex Factory News.
D (array) : Forex Factory News array for the current day's Forex Factory News.
M (bool) : Boolean that marks whether the current chart has a Day candle-switch at Midnight New York Time.
Returns: Forex Factory News array containing the current day's Forex Factory News.
adjustTimezone(N, TZH, TZM)
Transposes the Time of the Day, and Date, in the Forex Factory News Table to a custom Timezone.
Parameters:
N (array) : Forex Factory News array.
TZH (int) : Custom Timezone hour.
TZM (int) : Custom Timezone minute.
Returns: Reformatted Forex Factory News array.
NewsAMPM_TOD(N)
Reformats the Time of the Day in the Forex Factory News Table to AM/PM format.
Parameters:
N (array) : Forex Factory News array.
Returns: Reformatted Forex Factory News array.
impFilter(X, L, M, H)
Creates a filter array from the User's desired Forex Facory News to be shown based on Impact.
Parameters:
X (bool) : Boolean - if True Holidays listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
L (bool) : Boolean - if True Low Impact listed on Forex Factory News will be shown.
M (bool) : Boolean - if True Medium Impact listed on Forex Factory News will be shown.
H (bool) : Boolean - if True High Impact listed on Forex Factory News will be shown.
Returns: Color array with the colors corresponding to the Forex Factory News to be shown.
curFilter(A, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7, C8, C9)
Creates a filter array from the User's desired Forex Facory News to be shown based on Currency.
Parameters:
A (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the current Chart's symbol listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C1 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the Australian Dollar listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C2 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the Canadian Dollar listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C3 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the Swiss Franc listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C4 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the Chinese Yuan listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C5 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the Euro listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C6 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the British Pound listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C7 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the Japanese Yen listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C8 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the New Zealand Dollar listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
C9 (bool) : Boolean - if True News related to the US Dollar listed on Forex Factory will be shown.
Returns: String array with the currencies corresponding to the Forex Factory News to be shown.
FF_OnChartLine(N, T, S)
Plots vertical lines where a Forex Factory News event will occur, or has already occurred.
Parameters:
N (array) : News-type array containing all the Forex Factory News.
T (int) : Transparency integer value (0-100) for the lines.
S (string) : Line style in Pine Script v5 format.
Returns: void
method updateStringMatrix(M, P, V)
Updates a string Matrix containing the tooltips for Forex Factory News Event information for a given candle.
Namespace types: matrix
Parameters:
M (matrix) : String matrix.
P (int) : Position (row) of the Matrix to update based on the impact.
V (string) : information to push to the Matrix.
Returns: void
FF_OnChartLabel(N, Y, S, O)
Plots labels where a Forex Factory News has already occurred based on its/their impact.
Parameters:
N (array) : News-type array containing all the Forex Factory News.
Y (string) : String that gives direction on where to plot the label (options= "Above", "Below", "Auto").
S (string) : Label size in Pine Script v5 format.
O (bool) : Show outline of labels?
Returns: void
historical(T, D, W, X)
Deletes Forex Factory News drawings which are ourside a specific Time window.
Parameters:
T (int) : Number of days input used for Forex Factory News drawings' history.
D (bool) : Boolean that when true will only display Forex Factory News drawings of the current day.
W (bool) : Boolean that when true will only display Forex Factory News drawings of the current week.
X (string) : String that gives direction on what lines to plot based on Time (options= "Future", "Both").
Returns: void
newTable(P, B)
Creates a new Table object with parameters tailored to the Forex Factory News Table.
Parameters:
P (string) : Position string for the Table, in Pine Script v5 format.
B (color) : Border and frame color for the News Table.
Returns: Empty Forex Factory News Table.
resetTable(P, S, headTextC, headBgC, B)
Resets a Table object with parameters and headers tailored to the Forex Factory News Table.
Parameters:
P (string) : Position string for the Table, in Pine Script v5 format.
S (string) : Size string for the Table's text, in Pine Script v5 format.
headTextC (color)
headBgC (color)
B (color) : Border and frame color for the News Table.
Returns: Empty Forex Factory News Table.
logNews(N, TBL, R, S, rowTextC, rowBgC)
Adds an event to the Forex Factory News Table.
Parameters:
N (News) : News-type object.
TBL (table) : Forex Factory News Table object to add the News to.
R (int) : Row to add the event to in the Forex Factory News Table.
S (string) : Size string for the event's text, in Pine Script v5 format.
rowTextC (color)
rowBgC (color)
Returns: void
FF_Table(N, P, S, headTextC, headBgC, rowTextC, rowBgC, B)
Creates the Forex Factory News Table.
Parameters:
N (array) : News-type array containing all the Forex Factory News.
P (string) : Position string for the Table, in Pine Script v5 format.
S (string) : Size string for the Table's text, in Pine Script v5 format.
headTextC (color)
headBgC (color)
rowTextC (color)
rowBgC (color)
B (color) : Border and frame color for the News Table.
Returns: Forex Factory News Table.
timeline(N, T, F, TZH, TZM, D)
Shades Forex Factory News events in the Forex Factory News Table after they occur.
Parameters:
N (array) : News-type array containing all the Forex Factory News.
T (table) : Forex Facory News table object.
F (color) : Color used as shading once the Forex Factory News has occurred.
TZH (int) : Custom Timezone hour, if any.
TZM (int) : Custom Timezone minute, if any.
D (bool) : Daily Forex Factory News flag.
Returns: Forex Factory News Table.
News
Custom News type which contains informatino about a Forex Factory News Event.
Fields:
dow (series string) : Day of the week, in DDD format (i.e. 'Mon').
dat (series string) : Date, in MMM D format (i.e. 'Jan 1').
_t (series int)
tod (series string) : Time of the day, in hh:mm 24-Hour format (i.e 17:10).
cur (series string) : Currency, in CCC format (i.e. "USD").
imp (series color) : Impact, the respective impact color for Forex Factory News Events.
ttl (series string) : Title, encoded in a custom number mapping (see the toodegrees/toodegrees_forex_factory library to learn more).
tmst (series int)
ln (series line)
SMC Structures and FVGสวัสดีครับ! ผมจะอธิบายอินดิเคเตอร์ "SMC Structures and FVG + MACD" ที่คุณให้มาอย่างละเอียดในแต่ละส่วน เพื่อให้คุณเข้าใจการทำงานของมันอย่างถ่องแท้ครับ
อินดิเคเตอร์นี้เป็นการผสมผสานแนวคิดของ Smart Money Concept (SMC) ซึ่งเน้นการวิเคราะห์โครงสร้างตลาด (Market Structure) และ Fair Value Gap (FVG) เข้ากับอินดิเคเตอร์ MACD เพื่อใช้เป็นตัวกรองหรือตัวยืนยันสัญญาณ Choch/BoS (Change of Character / Break of Structure)
1. ภาพรวมอินดิเคเตอร์ (Overall Purpose)
อินดิเคเตอร์นี้มีจุดประสงค์หลักคือ:
ระบุโครงสร้างตลาด: ตีเส้นและป้ายกำกับ Choch (Change of Character) และ BoS (Break of Structure) บนกราฟโดยอัตโนมัติ
ผสานการยืนยันด้วย MACD: สัญญาณ Choch/BoS จะถูกพิจารณาก็ต่อเมื่อ MACD Histogram เกิดการตัดขึ้นหรือลง (Zero Cross) ในทิศทางที่สอดคล้องกัน
แสดง Fair Value Gap (FVG): หากเปิดใช้งาน จะมีการตีกล่อง FVG บนกราฟ
แสดงระดับ Fibonacci: คำนวณและแสดงระดับ Fibonacci ที่สำคัญตามโครงสร้างตลาดปัจจุบัน
ปรับตาม Timeframe: การคำนวณและการแสดงผลทั้งหมดจะปรับตาม Timeframe ที่คุณกำลังใช้งานอยู่โดยอัตโนมัติ
2. ส่วนประกอบหลักของโค้ด (Code Breakdown)
โค้ดนี้สามารถแบ่งออกเป็นส่วนหลัก ๆ ได้ดังนี้:
2.1 Inputs (การตั้งค่า)
ส่วนนี้คือตัวแปรที่คุณสามารถปรับแต่งได้ในหน้าต่างการตั้งค่าของอินดิเคเตอร์ (คลิกที่รูปฟันเฟืองข้างชื่ออินดิเคเตอร์บนกราฟ)
MACD Settings (ตั้งค่า MACD):
fast_len: ความยาวของ Fast EMA สำหรับ MACD (ค่าเริ่มต้น 12)
slow_len: ความยาวของ Slow EMA สำหรับ MACD (ค่าเริ่มต้น 26)
signal_len: ความยาวของ Signal Line สำหรับ MACD (ค่าเริ่มต้น 9)
= ta.macd(close, fast_len, slow_len, signal_len): คำนวณค่า MACD Line, Signal Line และ Histogram โดยใช้ราคาปิด (close) และค่าความยาวที่กำหนด
is_bullish_macd_cross: ตรวจสอบว่า MACD Histogram ตัดขึ้นเหนือเส้น 0 (จากค่าลบเป็นบวก)
is_bearish_macd_cross: ตรวจสอบว่า MACD Histogram ตัดลงใต้เส้น 0 (จากค่าบวกเป็นลบ)
Fear Value Gap (FVG) Settings:
isFvgToShow: (Boolean) เปิด/ปิดการแสดง FVG บนกราฟ
bullishFvgColor: สีสำหรับ Bullish FVG
bearishFvgColor: สีสำหรับ Bearish FVG
mitigatedFvgColor: สีสำหรับ FVG ที่ถูก Mitigate (ลดทอน) แล้ว
fvgHistoryNbr: จำนวน FVG ย้อนหลังที่จะแสดง
isMitigatedFvgToReduce: (Boolean) เปิด/ปิดการลดขนาด FVG เมื่อถูก Mitigate
Structures (โครงสร้างตลาด) Settings:
isStructBodyCandleBreak: (Boolean) หากเป็น true การ Break จะต้องเกิดขึ้นด้วย เนื้อเทียน ที่ปิดเหนือ/ใต้ Swing High/Low หากเป็น false แค่ไส้เทียนทะลุก็ถือว่า Break
isCurrentStructToShow: (Boolean) เปิด/ปิดการแสดงเส้นโครงสร้างตลาดปัจจุบัน (เส้นสีน้ำเงินในภาพตัวอย่าง)
pivot_len: ความยาวของแท่งเทียนที่ใช้ในการมองหาจุด Pivot (Swing High/Low) ยิ่งค่าน้อยยิ่งจับ Swing เล็กๆ ได้, ยิ่งค่ามากยิ่งจับ Swing ใหญ่ๆ ได้
bullishBosColor, bearishBosColor: สีสำหรับเส้นและป้าย BOS ขาขึ้น/ขาลง
bosLineStyleOption, bosLineWidth: สไตล์ (Solid, Dotted, Dashed) และความหนาของเส้น BOS
bullishChochColor, bearishChochColor: สีสำหรับเส้นและป้าย CHoCH ขาขึ้น/ขาลง
chochLineStyleOption, chochLineWidth: สไตล์ (Solid, Dotted, Dashed) และความหนาของเส้น CHoCH
currentStructColor, currentStructLineStyleOption, currentStructLineWidth: สี, สไตล์ และความหนาของเส้นโครงสร้างตลาดปัจจุบัน
structHistoryNbr: จำนวนการ Break (Choch/BoS) ย้อนหลังที่จะแสดง
Structure Fibonacci (จากโค้ดต้นฉบับ):
เป็นชุด Input สำหรับเปิด/ปิด, กำหนดค่า, สี, สไตล์ และความหนาของเส้น Fibonacci Levels ต่างๆ (0.786, 0.705, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382) ที่จะถูกคำนวณจากโครงสร้างตลาดปัจจุบัน
2.2 Helper Functions (ฟังก์ชันช่วยทำงาน)
getLineStyle(lineOption): ฟังก์ชันนี้ใช้แปลงค่า String ที่เลือกจาก Input (เช่น "─", "┈", "╌") ให้เป็นรูปแบบ line.style_ ที่ Pine Script เข้าใจ
get_structure_highest_bar(lookback): ฟังก์ชันนี้พยายามหา Bar Index ของแท่งเทียนที่ทำ Swing High ภายในช่วง lookback ที่กำหนด
get_structure_lowest_bar(lookback): ฟังก์ชันนี้พยายามหา Bar Index ของแท่งเทียนที่ทำ Swing Low ภายในช่วง lookback ที่กำหนด
is_structure_high_broken(...): ฟังก์ชันนี้ตรวจสอบว่าราคาปัจจุบันได้ Break เหนือ _structureHigh (Swing High) หรือไม่ โดยพิจารณาจาก _highStructBreakPrice (ราคาปิดหรือราคา High ขึ้นอยู่กับการตั้งค่า isStructBodyCandleBreak)
FVGDraw(...): ฟังก์ชันนี้รับ Arrays ของ FVG Boxes, Types, Mitigation Status และ Labels มาประมวลผล เพื่ออัปเดตสถานะของ FVG (เช่น ถูก Mitigate หรือไม่) และปรับขนาด/ตำแหน่งของ FVG Box และ Label บนกราฟ
2.3 Global Variables (ตัวแปรทั่วทั้งอินดิเคเตอร์)
เป็นตัวแปรที่ประกาศด้วย var ซึ่งหมายความว่าค่าของมันจะถูกเก็บไว้และอัปเดตในแต่ละแท่งเทียน (persists across bars)
structureLines, structureLabels: Arrays สำหรับเก็บอ็อบเจกต์ line และ label ของเส้น Choch/BoS ที่วาดบนกราฟ
fvgBoxes, fvgTypes, fvgLabels, isFvgMitigated: Arrays สำหรับเก็บข้อมูลของ FVG Boxes และสถานะต่างๆ
structureHigh, structureLow: เก็บราคาของ Swing High/Low ที่สำคัญของโครงสร้างตลาดปัจจุบัน
structureHighStartIndex, structureLowStartIndex: เก็บ Bar Index ของจุดเริ่มต้นของ Swing High/Low ที่สำคัญ
structureDirection: เก็บสถานะของทิศทางโครงสร้างตลาด (1 = Bullish, 2 = Bearish, 0 = Undefined)
fiboXPrice, fiboXStartIndex, fiboXLine, fiboXLabel: ตัวแปรสำหรับเก็บข้อมูลและอ็อบเจกต์ของเส้น Fibonacci Levels
isBOSAlert, isCHOCHAlert: (Boolean) ใช้สำหรับส่งสัญญาณ Alert (หากมีการตั้งค่า Alert ไว้)
2.4 FVG Processing (การประมวลผล FVG)
ส่วนนี้จะตรวจสอบเงื่อนไขการเกิด FVG (Bullish FVG: high < low , Bearish FVG: low > high )
หากเกิด FVG และ isFvgToShow เป็น true จะมีการสร้าง box และ label ใหม่เพื่อแสดง FVG บนกราฟ
มีการจัดการ fvgBoxes และ fvgLabels เพื่อจำกัดจำนวน FVG ที่แสดงตาม fvgHistoryNbr และลบ FVG เก่าออก
ฟังก์ชัน FVGDraw จะถูกเรียกเพื่ออัปเดตสถานะของ FVG (เช่น การถูก Mitigate) และปรับการแสดงผล
2.5 Structures Processing (การประมวลผลโครงสร้างตลาด)
Initialization: ที่ bar_index == 0 (แท่งเทียนแรกของกราฟ) จะมีการกำหนดค่าเริ่มต้นให้กับ structureHigh, structureLow, structureHighStartIndex, structureLowStartIndex
Finding Current High/Low: highest, highestBar, lowest, lowestBar ถูกใช้เพื่อหา High/Low ที่สุดและ Bar Index ของมันใน 10 แท่งล่าสุด (หรือทั้งหมดหากกราฟสั้นกว่า 10 แท่ง)
Calculating Structure Max/Min Bar: structureMaxBar และ structureMinBar ใช้ฟังก์ชัน get_structure_highest_bar และ get_structure_lowest_bar เพื่อหา Bar Index ของ Swing High/Low ที่แท้จริง (ไม่ใช่แค่ High/Low ที่สุดใน lookback แต่เป็นจุด Pivot ที่สมบูรณ์)
Break Price: lowStructBreakPrice และ highStructBreakPrice จะเป็นราคาปิด (close) หรือราคา Low/High ขึ้นอยู่กับ isStructBodyCandleBreak
isStuctureLowBroken / isStructureHighBroken: เงื่อนไขเหล่านี้ตรวจสอบว่าราคาได้ทำลาย structureLow หรือ structureHigh หรือไม่ โดยพิจารณาจากราคา Break, ราคาแท่งก่อนหน้า และ Bar Index ของจุดเริ่มต้นโครงสร้าง
Choch/BoS Logic (ส่วนสำคัญที่ถูกผสานกับ MACD):
if(isStuctureLowBroken and is_bearish_macd_cross): นี่คือจุดที่ MACD เข้ามามีบทบาท หากราคาทำลาย structureLow (สัญญาณขาลง) และ MACD Histogram เกิด Bearish Zero Cross (is_bearish_macd_cross เป็น true) อินดิเคเตอร์จะพิจารณาว่าเป็น Choch หรือ BoS
หาก structureDirection == 1 (เดิมเป็นขาขึ้น) หรือ 0 (ยังไม่กำหนด) จะตีเป็น "CHoCH" (เปลี่ยนทิศทางโครงสร้างเป็นขาลง)
หาก structureDirection == 2 (เดิมเป็นขาลง) จะตีเป็น "BOS" (ยืนยันโครงสร้างขาลง)
มีการสร้าง line.new และ label.new เพื่อวาดเส้นและป้ายกำกับ
structureDirection จะถูกอัปเดตเป็น 1 (Bullish)
structureHighStartIndex, structureLowStartIndex, structureHigh, structureLow จะถูกอัปเดตเพื่อกำหนดโครงสร้างใหม่
else if(isStructureHighBroken and is_bullish_macd_cross): เช่นกันสำหรับขาขึ้น หากราคาทำลาย structureHigh (สัญญาณขาขึ้น) และ MACD Histogram เกิด Bullish Zero Cross (is_bullish_macd_cross เป็น true) อินดิเคเตอร์จะพิจารณาว่าเป็น Choch หรือ BoS
หาก structureDirection == 2 (เดิมเป็นขาลง) หรือ 0 (ยังไม่กำหนด) จะตีเป็น "CHoCH" (เปลี่ยนทิศทางโครงสร้างเป็นขาขึ้น)
หาก structureDirection == 1 (เดิมเป็นขาขึ้น) จะตีเป็น "BOS" (ยืนยันโครงสร้างขาขึ้น)
มีการสร้าง line.new และ label.new เพื่อวาดเส้นและป้ายกำกับ
structureDirection จะถูกอัปเดตเป็น 2 (Bearish)
structureHighStartIndex, structureLowStartIndex, structureHigh, structureLow จะถูกอัปเดตเพื่อกำหนดโครงสร้างใหม่
การลบเส้นเก่า: d.delete_line (หากไลบรารีทำงาน) จะถูกเรียกเพื่อลบเส้นและป้ายกำกับเก่าออกเมื่อจำนวนเกิน structHistoryNbr
Updating Structure High/Low (else block): หากไม่มีการ Break เกิดขึ้น แต่ราคาปัจจุบันสูงกว่า structureHigh หรือต่ำกว่า structureLow ในทิศทางที่สอดคล้องกัน (เช่น ยังคงเป็นขาขึ้นและทำ High ใหม่) structureHigh หรือ structureLow จะถูกอัปเดตเพื่อติดตาม High/Low ที่สุดของโครงสร้างปัจจุบัน
Current Structure Display:
หาก isCurrentStructToShow เป็น true อินดิเคเตอร์จะวาดเส้น structureHighLine และ structureLowLine เพื่อแสดงขอบเขตของโครงสร้างตลาดปัจจุบัน
Fibonacci Display:
หาก isFiboXToShow เป็น true อินดิเคเตอร์จะคำนวณและวาดเส้น Fibonacci Levels ต่างๆ (0.786, 0.705, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382) โดยอิงจาก structureHigh และ structureLow ของโครงสร้างตลาดปัจจุบัน
Alerts:
alertcondition: ใช้สำหรับตั้งค่า Alert ใน TradingView เมื่อเกิดสัญญาณ BOS หรือ CHOCH
plot(na):
plot(na) เป็นคำสั่งที่สำคัญในอินดิเคเตอร์ที่ไม่ได้ต้องการพล็อต Series ของข้อมูลบนกราฟ (เช่น ไม่ได้พล็อตเส้น EMA หรือ RSI) แต่ใช้วาดอ็อบเจกต์ (Line, Label, Box) โดยตรง
การมี plot(na) ช่วยให้ Pine Script รู้ว่าอินดิเคเตอร์นี้มีเอาต์พุตที่แสดงผลบนกราฟ แม้ว่าจะไม่ได้เป็น Series ที่พล็อตตามปกติก็ตาม
3. วิธีใช้งาน
คัดลอกโค้ดทั้งหมด ที่อยู่ในบล็อก immersive ด้านบน
ไปที่ TradingView และเปิดกราฟที่คุณต้องการ
คลิกที่เมนู "Pine Editor" ที่อยู่ด้านล่างของหน้าจอ
ลบโค้ดเดิมที่มีอยู่ และ วางโค้ดที่คัดลอกมา ลงไปแทน
คลิกที่ปุ่ม "Add to Chart"
อินดิเคเตอร์จะถูกเพิ่มลงในกราฟของคุณโดยอัตโนมัติ คุณสามารถคลิกที่รูปฟันเฟืองข้างชื่ออินดิเคเตอร์บนกราฟเพื่อเข้าถึงหน้าต่างการตั้งค่าและปรับแต่งตามความต้องการของคุณได้
Hello! I will explain the "SMC Structures and FVG + MACD" indicator you provided in detail, section by section, so you can fully understand how it works.This indicator combines the concepts of Smart Money Concept (SMC), which focuses on analyzing Market Structure and Fair Value Gaps (FVG), with the MACD indicator to serve as a filter or confirmation for Choch (Change of Character) and BoS (Break of Structure) signals.1. Overall PurposeThe main purposes of this indicator are:Identify Market Structure: Automatically draw lines and label Choch (Change of Character) and BoS (Break of Structure) on the chart.Integrate MACD Confirmation: Choch/BoS signals will only be considered when the MACD Histogram performs a cross (Zero Cross) in the corresponding direction.Display Fair Value Gap (FVG): If enabled, FVG boxes will be drawn on the chart.Display Fibonacci Levels: Calculate and display important Fibonacci levels based on the current market structure.Adapt to Timeframe: All calculations and displays will automatically adjust to the timeframe you are currently using.2. Code BreakdownThis code can be divided into the following main sections:2.1 Inputs (Settings)This section contains variables that you can adjust in the indicator's settings window (click the gear icon next to the indicator's name on the chart).MACD Settings:fast_len: Length of the Fast EMA for MACD (default 12)slow_len: Length of the Slow EMA for MACD (default 26)signal_len: Length of the Signal Line for MACD (default 9) = ta.macd(close, fast_len, slow_len, signal_len): Calculates the MACD Line, Signal Line, and Histogram using the closing price (close) and the specified lengths.is_bullish_macd_cross: Checks if the MACD Histogram crosses above the 0 line (from negative to positive).is_bearish_macd_cross: Checks if the MACD Histogram crosses below the 0 line (from positive to negative).Fear Value Gap (FVG) Settings:isFvgToShow: (Boolean) Enables/disables the display of FVG on the chart.bullishFvgColor: Color for Bullish FVG.bearishFvgColor: Color for Bearish FVG.mitigatedFvgColor: Color for FVG that has been mitigated.fvgHistoryNbr: Number of historical FVG to display.isMitigatedFvgToReduce: (Boolean) Enables/disables reducing the size of FVG when mitigated.Structures (โครงสร้างตลาด) Settings:isStructBodyCandleBreak: (Boolean) If true, the break must occur with the candle body closing above/below the Swing High/Low. If false, a wick break is sufficient.isCurrentStructToShow: (Boolean) Enables/disables the display of the current market structure lines (blue lines in the example image).pivot_len: Lookback length for identifying Pivot points (Swing High/Low). A smaller value captures smaller, more frequent swings; a larger value captures larger, more significant swings.bullishBosColor, bearishBosColor: Colors for bullish/bearish BOS lines and labels.bosLineStyleOption, bosLineWidth: Style (Solid, Dotted, Dashed) and width of BOS lines.bullishChochColor, bearishChochColor: Colors for bullish/bearish CHoCH lines and labels.chochLineStyleOption, chochLineWidth: Style (Solid, Dotted, Dashed) and width of CHoCH lines.currentStructColor, currentStructLineStyleOption, currentStructLineWidth: Color, style, and width of the current market structure lines.structHistoryNbr: Number of historical breaks (Choch/BoS) to display.Structure Fibonacci (from original code):A set of inputs to enable/disable, define values, colors, styles, and widths for various Fibonacci Levels (0.786, 0.705, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382) that will be calculated from the current market structure.2.2 Helper FunctionsgetLineStyle(lineOption): This function converts the selected string input (e.g., "─", "┈", "╌") into a line.style_ format understood by Pine Script.get_structure_highest_bar(lookback): This function attempts to find the Bar Index of the Swing High within the specified lookback period.get_structure_lowest_bar(lookback): This function attempts to find the Bar Index of the Swing Low within the specified lookback period.is_structure_high_broken(...): This function checks if the current price has broken above _structureHigh (Swing High), considering _highStructBreakPrice (closing price or high price depending on isStructBodyCandleBreak setting).FVGDraw(...): This function takes arrays of FVG Boxes, Types, Mitigation Status, and Labels to process and update the status of FVG (e.g., whether it's mitigated) and adjust the size/position of FVG Boxes and Labels on the chart.2.3 Global VariablesThese are variables declared with var, meaning their values are stored and updated on each bar (persists across bars).structureLines, structureLabels: Arrays to store line and label objects for Choch/BoS lines drawn on the chart.fvgBoxes, fvgTypes, fvgLabels, isFvgMitigated: Arrays to store FVG box data and their respective statuses.structureHigh, structureLow: Stores the price of the significant Swing High/Low of the current market structure.structureHighStartIndex, structureLowStartIndex: Stores the Bar Index of the start point of the significant Swing High/Low.structureDirection: Stores the status of the market structure direction (1 = Bullish, 2 = Bearish, 0 = Undefined).fiboXPrice, fiboXStartIndex, fiboXLine, fiboXLabel: Variables to store data and objects for Fibonacci Levels.isBOSAlert, isCHOCHAlert: (Boolean) Used to trigger alerts in TradingView (if alerts are configured).2.4 FVG ProcessingThis section checks the conditions for FVG formation (Bullish FVG: high < low , Bearish FVG: low > high ).If FVG occurs and isFvgToShow is true, a new box and label are created to display the FVG on the chart.fvgBoxes and fvgLabels are managed to limit the number of FVG displayed according to fvgHistoryNbr and remove older FVG.The FVGDraw function is called to update the FVG status (e.g., whether it's mitigated) and adjust its display.2.5 Structures ProcessingInitialization: At bar_index == 0 (the first bar of the chart), structureHigh, structureLow, structureHighStartIndex, and structureLowStartIndex are initialized.Finding Current High/Low: highest, highestBar, lowest, lowestBar are used to find the highest/lowest price and its Bar Index of it in the last 10 bars (or all bars if the chart is shorter than 10 bars).Calculating Structure Max/Min Bar: structureMaxBar and structureMinBar use get_structure_highest_bar and get_structure_lowest_bar functions to find the Bar Index of the true Swing High/Low (not just the highest/lowest in the lookback but a complete Pivot point).Break Price: lowStructBreakPrice and highStructBreakPrice will be the closing price (close) or the Low/High price, depending on the isStructBodyCandleBreak setting.isStuctureLowBroken / isStructureHighBroken: These conditions check if the price has broken structureLow or structureHigh, considering the break price, previous bar prices, and the Bar Index of the structure's starting point.Choch/BoS Logic (Key Integration with MACD):if(isStuctureLowBroken and is_bearish_macd_cross): This is where MACD plays a role. If the price breaks structureLow (bearish signal) AND the MACD Histogram performs a Bearish Zero Cross (is_bearish_macd_cross is true), the indicator will consider it a Choch or BoS.If structureDirection == 1 (previously bullish) or 0 (undefined), it will be labeled "CHoCH" (changing structure direction to bearish).If structureDirection == 2 (already bearish), it will be labeled "BOS" (confirming bearish structure).line.new and label.new are used to draw the line and label.structureDirection will be updated to 1 (Bullish).structureHighStartIndex, structureLowStartIndex, structureHigh, structureLow will be updated to define the new structure.else if(isStructureHighBroken and is_bullish_macd_cross): Similarly for bullish breaks. If the price breaks structureHigh (bullish signal) AND the MACD Histogram performs a Bullish Zero Cross (is_bullish_macd_cross is true), the indicator will consider it a Choch or BoS.If structureDirection == 2 (previously bearish) or 0 (undefined), it will be labeled "CHoCH" (changing structure direction to bullish).If structureDirection == 1 (already bullish), it will be labeled "BOS" (confirming bullish structure).line.new and label.new are used to draw the line and label.structureDirection will be updated to 2 (Bearish).structureHighStartIndex, structureLowStartIndex, structureHigh, structureLow will be updated to define the new structure.Deleting Old Lines: d.delete_line (if the library works) will be called to delete old lines and labels when their number exceeds structHistoryNbr.Updating Structure High/Low (else block): If no break occurs, but the current price is higher than structureHigh or lower than structureLow in the corresponding direction (e.g., still bullish and making a new high), structureHigh or structureLow will be updated to track the highest/lowest point of the current structure.Current Structure Display:If isCurrentStructToShow is true, the indicator draws structureHighLine and structureLowLine to show the boundaries of the current market structure.Fibonacci Display:If isFiboXToShow is true, the indicator calculates and draws various Fibonacci Levels (0.786, 0.705, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382) based on the structureHigh and structureLow of the current market structure.Alerts:alertcondition: Used to set up alerts in TradingView when BOS or CHOCH signals occur.plot(na):plot(na) is an important statement in indicators that do not plot data series directly on the chart (e.g., not plotting EMA or RSI lines) but instead draw objects (Line, Label, Box).Having plot(na) helps Pine Script recognize that this indicator has an output displayed on the chart, even if it's not a regularly plotted series.3. How to UseCopy all the code in the immersive block above.Go to TradingView and open your desired chart.Click on the "Pine Editor" menu at the bottom of the screen.Delete any existing code and paste the copied code in its place.Click the "Add to Chart" button.The indicator will be added to your chart automatically. You can click the gear icon next to the indicator's name on the chart to access the settings window and customize it to your needs.I hope this explanation helps you understand this indicator in detail. If anything is unclear, or you need further adjustments, please let me know.
MERV: Market Entropy & Rhythm Visualizer [BullByte]The MERV (Market Entropy & Rhythm Visualizer) indicator analyzes market conditions by measuring entropy (randomness vs. trend), tradeability (volatility/momentum), and cyclical rhythm. It provides traders with an easy-to-read dashboard and oscillator to understand when markets are structured or choppy, and when trading conditions are optimal.
Purpose of the Indicator
MERV’s goal is to help traders identify different market regimes. It quantifies how structured or random recent price action is (entropy), how strong and volatile the movement is (tradeability), and whether a repeating cycle exists. By visualizing these together, MERV highlights trending vs. choppy environments and flags when conditions are favorable for entering trades. For example, a low entropy value means prices are following a clear trend line, whereas high entropy indicates a lot of noise or sideways action. The indicator’s combination of measures is original: it fuses statistical trend-fit (entropy), volatility trends (ATR and slope), and cycle analysis to give a comprehensive view of market behavior.
Why a Trader Should Use It
Traders often need to know when a market trend is reliable vs. when it is just noise. MERV helps in several ways: it shows when the market has a strong direction (low entropy, high tradeability) and when it’s ranging (high entropy). This can prevent entering trend-following strategies during choppy periods, or help catch breakouts early. The “Optimal Regime” marker (a star) highlights moments when entropy is very low and tradeability is very high, typically the best conditions for trend trades. By using MERV, a trader gains an empirical “go/no-go” signal based on price history, rather than guessing from price alone. It’s also adaptable: you can apply it to stocks, forex, crypto, etc., on any timeframe. For example, during a bullish phase of a stock, MERV will turn green (Trending Mode) and often show a star, signaling good follow-through. If the market later grinds sideways, MERV will shift to magenta (Choppy Mode), warning you that trend-following is now risky.
Why These Components Were Chosen
Market Entropy (via R²) : This measures how well recent prices fit a straight line. We compute a linear regression on the last len_entropy bars and calculate R². Entropy = 1 - R², so entropy is low when prices follow a trend (R² near 1) and high when price action is erratic (R² near 0). This single number captures trend strength vs noise.
Tradeability (ATR + Slope) : We combine two familiar measures: the Average True Range (ATR) (normalized by price) and the absolute slope of the regression line (scaled by ATR). Together they reflect how active and directional the market is. A high ATR or strong slope means big moves, making a trend more “tradeable.” We take a simple average of the normalized ATR and slope to get tradeability_raw. Then we convert it to a percentile rank over the lookback window so it’s stable between 0 and 1.
Percentile Ranks : To make entropy and tradeability values easy to interpret, we convert each to a 0–100 rank based on the past len_entropy periods. This turns raw metrics into a consistent scale. (For example, an entropy rank of 90 means current entropy is higher than 90% of recent values.) We then divide by 100 to plot them on a 0–1 scale.
Market Mode (Regime) : Based on those ranks, MERV classifies the market:
Trending (Green) : Low entropy rank (<40%) and high tradeability rank (>60%). This means the market is structurally trending with high activity.
Choppy (Magenta) : High entropy rank (>60%) and low tradeability rank (<40%). This is a mostly random, low-momentum market.
Neutral (Cyan) : All other cases. This covers mixed regimes not strongly trending or choppy.
The mode is shown as a colored bar at the bottom: green for trending, magenta for choppy, cyan for neutral.
Optimal Regime Signal : Separately, we mark an “optimal” condition when entropy_norm < 0.3 and tradeability > 0.7 (both normalized 0–1). When this is true, a ★ star appears on the bottom line. This star is colored white when truly optimal, gold when only tradeability is high (but entropy not quite low enough), and black when neither condition holds. This gives a quick visual cue for very favorable conditions.
What Makes MERV Stand Out
Holistic View : Unlike a single-oscillator, MERV combines trend, volatility, and cycle analysis in one tool. This multi-faceted approach is unique.
Visual Dashboard : The fixed on-chart dashboard (shown at your chosen corner) summarizes all metrics in bar/gauge form. Even a non-technical user can glance at it: more “█” blocks = a higher value, colors match the plots. This is more intuitive than raw numbers.
Adaptive Thresholds : Using percentile ranks means MERV auto-adjusts to each market’s character, rather than requiring fixed thresholds.
Cycle Insight : The rhythm plot adds information rarely found in indicators – it shows if there’s a repeating cycle (and its period in bars) and how strong it is. This can hint at natural bounce or reversal intervals.
Modern Look : The neon color scheme and glow effects make the lines easy to distinguish (blue/pink for entropy, green/orange for tradeability, etc.) and the filled area between them highlights when one dominates the other.
Recommended Timeframes
MERV can be applied to any timeframe, but it will be more reliable on higher timeframes. The default len_entropy = 50 and len_rhythm = 30 mean we use 30–50 bars of history, so on a daily chart that’s ~2–3 months of data; on a 1-hour chart it’s about 2–3 days. In practice:
Swing/Position traders might prefer Daily or 4H charts, where the calculations smooth out small noise. Entropy and cycles are more meaningful on longer trends.
Day trader s could use 15m or 1H charts if they adjust the inputs (e.g. shorter windows). This provides more sensitivity to intraday cycles.
Scalpers might find MERV too “slow” unless input lengths are set very low.
In summary, the indicator works anywhere, but the defaults are tuned for capturing medium-term trends. Users can adjust len_entropy and len_rhythm to match their chart’s volatility. The dashboard position can also be moved (top-left, bottom-right, etc.) so it doesn’t cover important chart areas.
How the Scoring/Logic Works (Step-by-Step)
Compute Entropy : A linear regression line is fit to the last len_entropy closes. We compute R² (goodness of fit). Entropy = 1 – R². So a strong straight-line trend gives low entropy; a flat/noisy set of points gives high entropy.
Compute Tradeability : We get ATR over len_entropy bars, normalize it by price (so it’s a fraction of price). We also calculate the regression slope (difference between the predicted close and last close). We scale |slope| by ATR to get a dimensionless measure. We average these (ATR% and slope%) to get tradeability_raw. This represents how big and directional price moves are.
Convert to Percentiles : Each new entropy and tradeability value is inserted into a rolling array of the last 50 values. We then compute the percentile rank of the current value in that array (0–100%) using a simple loop. This tells us where the current bar stands relative to history. We then divide by 100 to plot on .
Determine Modes and Signal : Based on these normalized metrics: if entropy < 0.4 and tradeability > 0.6 (40% and 60% thresholds), we set mode = Trending (1). If entropy > 0.6 and tradeability < 0.4, mode = Choppy (-1). Otherwise mode = Neutral (0). Separately, if entropy_norm < 0.3 and tradeability > 0.7, we set an optimal flag. These conditions trigger the colored mode bars and the star line.
Rhythm Detection : Every bar, if we have enough data, we take the last len_rhythm closes and compute the mean and standard deviation. Then for lags from 5 up to len_rhythm, we calculate a normalized autocorrelation coefficient. We track the lag that gives the maximum correlation (best match). This “best lag” divided by len_rhythm is plotted (a value between 0 and 1). Its color changes with the correlation strength. We also smooth the best correlation value over 5 bars to plot as “Cycle Strength” (also 0 to 1). This shows if there is a consistent cycle length in recent price action.
Heatmap (Optional) : The background color behind the oscillator panel can change with entropy. If “Neon Rainbow” style is on, low entropy is blue and high entropy is pink (via a custom color function), otherwise a classic green-to-red gradient can be used. This visually reinforces the entropy value.
Volume Regime (Dashboard Only) : We compute vol_norm = volume / sma(volume, len_entropy). If this is above 1.5, it’s considered high volume (neon orange); below 0.7 is low (blue); otherwise normal (green). The dashboard shows this as a bar gauge and percentage. This is for context only.
Oscillator Plot – How to Read It
The main panel (oscillator) has multiple colored lines on a 0–1 vertical scale, with horizontal markers at 0.2 (Low), 0.5 (Mid), and 0.8 (High). Here’s each element:
Entropy Line (Blue→Pink) : This line (and its glow) shows normalized entropy (0 = very low, 1 = very high). It is blue/green when entropy is low (strong trend) and pink/purple when entropy is high (choppy). A value near 0.0 (below 0.2 line) indicates a very well-defined trend. A value near 1.0 (above 0.8 line) means the market is very random. Watch for it dipping near 0: that suggests a strong trend has formed.
Tradeability Line (Green→Yellow) : This represents normalized tradeability. It is colored bright green when tradeability is low, transitioning to yellow as tradeability increases. Higher values (approaching 1) mean big moves and strong slopes. Typically in a market rally or crash, this line will rise. A crossing above ~0.7 often coincides with good trend strength.
Filled Area (Orange Shade) : The orange-ish fill between the entropy and tradeability lines highlights when one dominates the other. If the area is large, the two metrics diverge; if small, they are similar. This is mostly aesthetic but can catch the eye when the lines cross over or remain close.
Rhythm (Cycle) Line : This is plotted as (best_lag / len_rhythm). It indicates the relative period of the strongest cycle. For example, a value of 0.5 means the strongest cycle was about half the window length. The line’s color (green, orange, or pink) reflects how strong that cycle is (green = strong). If no clear cycle is found, this line may be flat or near zero.
Cycle Strength Line : Plotted on the same scale, this shows the autocorrelation strength (0–1). A high value (e.g. above 0.7, shown in green) means the cycle is very pronounced. Low values (pink) mean any cycle is weak and unreliable.
Mode Bars (Bottom) : Below the main oscillator, thick colored bars appear: a green bar means Trending Mode, magenta means Choppy Mode, and cyan means Neutral. These bars all have a fixed height (–0.1) and make it very easy to see the current regime.
Optimal Regime Line (Bottom) : Just below the mode bars is a thick horizontal line at –0.18. Its color indicates regime quality: White (★) means “Optimal Regime” (very low entropy and high tradeability). Gold (★) means not quite optimal (high tradeability but entropy not low enough). Black means neither condition. This star line quickly tells you when conditions are ideal (white star) or simply good (gold star).
Horizontal Guides : The dotted lines at 0.2 (Low), 0.5 (Mid), and 0.8 (High) serve as reference lines. For example, an entropy or tradeability reading above 0.8 is “High,” and below 0.2 is “Low,” as labeled on the chart. These help you gauge values at a glance.
Dashboard (Fixed Corner Panel)
MERV also includes a compact table (dashboard) that can be positioned in any corner. It summarizes key values each bar. Here is how to read its rows:
Entropy : Shows a bar of blocks (█ and ░). More █ blocks = higher entropy. It also gives a percentage (rounded). A full bar (10 blocks) with a high % means very chaotic market. The text is colored similarly (blue-green for low, pink for high).
Rhythm : Shows the best cycle period in bars (e.g. “15 bars”). If no calculation yet, it shows “n/a.” The text color matches the rhythm line.
Cycle Strength : Gives the cycle correlation as a percentage (smoothed, as shown on chart). Higher % (green) means a strong cycle.
Tradeability : Displays a 10-block gauge for tradeability. More blocks = more tradeable market. It also shows “gauge” text colored green→yellow accordingly.
Market Mode : Simply shows “Trending”, “Choppy”, or “Neutral” (cyan text) to match the mode bar color.
Volume Regime : Similar to tradeability, shows blocks for current volume vs. average. Above-average volume gives orange blocks, below-average gives blue blocks. A % value indicates current volume relative to average. This row helps see if volume is abnormally high or low.
Optimal Status (Large Row) : In bold, either “★ Optimal Regime” (white text) if the star condition is met, “★ High Tradeability” (gold text) if tradeability alone is high, or “— Not Optimal” (gray text) otherwise. This large row catches your eye when conditions are ripe.
In short, the dashboard turns the numeric state into an easy read: filled bars, colors, and text let you see current conditions without reading the plot. For instance, five blue blocks under Entropy and “25%” tells you entropy is low (good), and a row showing “Trending” in green confirms a trend state.
Real-Life Example
Example : Consider a daily chart of a trending stock (e.g. “AAPL, 1D”). During a strong uptrend, recent prices fit a clear upward line, so Entropy would be low (blue line near bottom, perhaps below the 0.2 line). Volatility and slope are high, so Tradeability is high (green-yellow line near top). In the dashboard, Entropy might show only 1–2 blocks (e.g. 10%) and Tradeability nearly full (e.g. 90%). The Market Mode bar turns green (Trending), and you might see a white ★ on the optimal line if conditions are very good. The Volume row might light orange if volume is above average during the rally. In contrast, imagine the same stock later in a tight range: Entropy will rise (pink line up, more blocks in dashboard), Tradeability falls (fewer blocks), and the Mode bar turns magenta (Choppy). No star appears in that case.
Consolidated Use Case : Suppose on XYZ stock the dashboard reads “Entropy: █░░░░░░░░ 20%”, “Tradeability: ██████████ 80%”, Mode = Trending (green), and “★ Optimal Regime.” This tells the trader that the market is in a strong, low-noise trend, and it might be a good time to follow the trend (with appropriate risk controls). If instead it reads “Entropy: ████████░░ 80%”, “Tradeability: ███▒▒▒▒▒▒ 30%”, Mode = Choppy (magenta), the trader knows the market is random and low-momentum—likely best to sit out until conditions improve.
Example: How It Looks in Action
Screenshot 1: Trending Market with High Tradeability (SOLUSD, 30m)
What it means:
The market is in a clear, strong trend with excellent conditions for trading. Both trend-following and active strategies are favored, supported by high tradeability and strong volume.
Screenshot 2: Optimal Regime, Strong Trend (ETHUSD, 1h)
What it means:
This is an ideal environment for trend trading. The market is highly organized, tradeability is excellent, and volume supports the move. This is when the indicator signals the highest probability for success.
Screenshot 3: Choppy Market with High Volume (BTC Perpetual, 5m)
What it means:
The market is highly random and choppy, despite a surge in volume. This is a high-risk, low-reward environment, avoid trend strategies, and be cautious even with mean-reversion or scalping.
Settings and Inputs
The script is fully open-source; here are key inputs the user can adjust:
Entropy Window (len_entropy) : Number of bars used for entropy and tradeability (default 50). Larger = smoother, more lag; smaller = more sensitivity.
Rhythm Window (len_rhythm ): Bars used for cycle detection (default 30). This limits the longest cycle we detect.
Dashboard Position : Choose any corner (Top Right default) so it doesn’t cover chart action.
Show Heatmap : Toggles the entropy background coloring on/off.
Heatmap Style : “Neon Rainbow” (colorful) or “Classic” (green→red).
Show Mode Bar : Turn the bottom mode bar on/off.
Show Dashboard : Turn the fixed table panel on/off.
Each setting has a tooltip explaining its effect. In the description we will mention typical settings (e.g. default window sizes) and that the user can move the dashboard corner as desired.
Oscillator Interpretation (Recap)
Lines : Blue/Pink = Entropy (low=trend, high=chop); Green/Yellow = Tradeability (low=quiet, high=volatile).
Fill : Orange tinted area between them (for visual emphasis).
Bars : Green=Trending, Magenta=Choppy, Cyan=Neutral (at bottom).
Star Line : White star = ideal conditions, Gold = good but not ideal.
Horizontal Guides : 0.2 and 0.8 lines mark low/high thresholds for each metric.
Using the chart, a coder or trader can see exactly what each output represents and make decisions accordingly.
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided as-is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not guarantee any particular trading outcome. Past market patterns may not repeat in the future. Users should apply their own judgment and risk management; do not rely solely on this tool for trading decisions. Remember, TradingView scripts are tools for market analysis, not personalized financial advice. We encourage users to test and combine MERV with other analysis and to trade responsibly.
-BullByte
Reversal Point Dynamics⇋ Reversal Point Dynamics (RPD)
This is not an indicator; it is a complete system for deconstructing the mechanics of a market reversal. Reversal Point Dynamics (RPD) moves far beyond simplistic pattern recognition, venturing into a deep analysis of the underlying forces that cause trends to exhaust, pause, and turn. It is engineered from the ground up to identify high-probability reversal points by quantifying the confluence of market dynamics in real-time.
Where other tools provide a static signal, RPD delivers a dynamic probability. It understands that a true market turning point is not a single event, but a cascade of failing momentum, structural breakdown, and a shift in market order. RPD's core engine meticulously analyzes each of these dynamic components—the market's underlying state, its velocity and acceleration, its degree of chaos (entropy), and its structural framework. These forces are synthesized into a single, unified Probability Score, offering you an unprecedented, transparent view into the conviction behind every potential reversal.
This is not a "black box" system. It is an open-architecture engine designed to empower the discerning trader. Featuring real-time signal projection, an integrated Fibonacci R2R Target Engine, and a comprehensive dashboard that acts as your Dynamics Control Center , RPD gives you a complete, holistic view of the market's state.
The Theoretical Core: Deconstructing Market Dynamics
RPD's analytical power is born from the intelligent synthesis of multiple, distinct theoretical models. Each pillar of the engine analyzes a different facet of market behavior. The convergence of these analyses—the "Singularity" event referenced in the dashboard—is what generates the final, high-conviction probability score.
1. Pillar One: Quantum State Analysis (QSA)
This is the foundational analysis of the market's current state within its recent context. Instead of treating price as a random walk, QSA quantizes it into a finite number of discrete "states."
Formulaic Concept: The engine establishes a price range using the highest high and lowest low over the Adaptive Analysis Period. This range is then divided into a user-defined number of Analysis Levels. The current price is mapped to one of these states (e.g., in a 9-level system, State 0 is the absolute low, and State 8 is the absolute high).
Analytical Edge: This acts as a powerful foundational filter. The engine will only begin searching for reversal signals when the market has reached a statistically stretched, extreme state (e.g., State 0 or 8). The Edge Sensitivity input allows you to control exactly how close to this extreme edge the price must be, ensuring you are trading from points of maximum potential exhaustion.
2. Pillar Two: Price State Roc (PSR) - The Dynamics of Momentum
This pillar analyzes the kinetic forces of the market: its velocity and acceleration. It understands that it’s not just where the price is, but how it got there that matters.
Formulaic Concept: The psr function calculates two derivatives of price.
Velocity: (price - price ). This measures the speed and direction of the current move.
Acceleration: (velocity - velocity ). This measures the rate of change in that speed. A negative acceleration (deceleration) during a strong rally is a critical pre-reversal warning, indicating momentum is fading even as price may be pushing higher.
Analytical Edge: The engine specifically hunts for exhaustion patterns where momentum is clearly decelerating as price reaches an extreme state. This is the mechanical signature of a weakening trend.
3. Pillar Three: Market Entropy Analysis - The Dynamics of Order & Chaos
This is RPD's chaos filter, a concept borrowed from information theory. Entropy measures the degree of randomness or disorder in the market's price action.
Formulaic Concept: The calculateEntropy function analyzes recent price changes. A market moving directionally and smoothly has low entropy (high order). A market chopping back and forth without direction has high entropy (high chaos). The value is normalized between 0 and 1.
Analytical Edge: The most reliable trades occur in low-entropy, ordered environments. RPD uses the Entropy Threshold to disqualify signals that attempt to form in chaotic, unpredictable conditions, providing a powerful shield against whipsaw markets.
4. Pillar Four: The Synthesis Engine & Probability Calculation
This is where all the dynamic forces converge. The final probability score is a weighted calculation that heavily rewards confluence.
Formulaic Concept: The calculateProbability function intelligently assembles the final score:
A Base Score is established from trend strength and entropy.
An Entropy Score adds points for low entropy (order) and subtracts for high entropy (chaos).
A significant Divergence Bonus is awarded for a classic momentum divergence.
RSI & Volume Bonuses are added if momentum oscillators are in extreme territory or a volume spike confirms institutional interest.
MTF & Adaptive Bonuses add further weight for alignment with higher timeframe structure.
Analytical Edge: A signal backed by multiple dynamic forces (e.g., extreme state + decelerating momentum + low entropy + volume spike) will receive an exponentially higher probability score. This is the very essence of analyzing reversal point dynamics.
The Command Center: Mastering the Inputs
Every input is a precise lever of control, allowing you to fine-tune the RPD engine to your exact trading style, market, and timeframe.
🧠 Core Algorithm
Predictive Mode (Early Detection):
What It Is: Enables the engine to search for potential reversals on the current, unclosed bar.
How It Works: Analyzes intra-bar acceleration and state to identify developing exhaustion. These signals are marked with a ' ? ' and are tentative.
How To Use It: Enable for scalping or very aggressive day trading to get the earliest possible indication. Disable for swing trading or a more conservative approach that waits for full bar confirmation.
Live Signal Mode (Current Bar):
What It Is: A highly aggressive mode that plots tentative signals with a ' ! ' on the live bar based on projected price and momentum. These signals repaint intra-bar.
How It Works: Uses a linear regression projection of the close to anticipate a reversal.
How To Use It: For advanced users who use intra-bar dynamics for execution and understand the nature of repainting signals.
Adaptive Analysis Period:
What It Is: The main lookback period for the QSA, PSR, and Entropy calculations. This is the engine's "memory."
How It Works: A shorter period makes the engine highly sensitive to local price swings. A longer period makes it focus only on major, significant market structure.
How To Use It: Scalping (1-5m): 15-25. Day Trading (15m-1H): 25-40. Swing Trading (4H+): 40-60.
Fractal Strength (Bars):
What It Is: Defines the strength of the pivot detection used for confirming reversal events.
How It Works: A value of '2' requires a candle's high/low to be more extreme than the two bars to its left and right.
How To Use It: '2' is a robust standard. Increase to '3' for an even stricter definition of a structural pivot, which will result in fewer signals.
MTF Multiplier:
What It Is: Integrates pivot data from a higher timeframe for confluence.
How It Works: A multiplier of '4' on a 15-minute chart will pull pivot data from the 1-hour chart (15 * 4 = 60m).
How To Use It: Set to a multiple that corresponds to your preferred higher timeframe for contextual analysis.
🎯 Signal Settings
Min Probability %:
What It Is: Your master quality filter. A signal is only plotted if its score exceeds this threshold.
How It Works: Directly filters the output of the final probability calculation.
How To Use It: High-Quality (80-95): For A+ setups only. Balanced (65-75): For day trading. Aggressive (50-60): For scalping.
Min Signal Distance (Bars):
What It Is: A noise filter that prevents signals from clustering in choppy conditions.
How It Works: Enforces a "cooldown" period of N bars after a signal.
How To Use It: Increase in ranging markets to focus on major swings. Decrease on lower timeframes.
Entropy Threshold:
What It Is: Your "chaos shield." Sets the maximum allowable market randomness for a signal.
How It Works: If calculated entropy is above this value, the signal is invalidated.
How To Use It: Lower values (0.1-0.5): Extremely strict. Higher values (0.7-1.0): More lenient. 0.85 is a good balance.
Adaptive Entropy & Aggressive Mode:
What It Is: Toggles for dynamically adjusting the engine's core parameters.
How It Works: Adaptive Entropy can slightly lower the required probability in strong trends. Aggressive Mode uses more lenient settings across the board.
How To Use It: Keep Adaptive on. Use Aggressive Mode sparingly, primarily for scalping highly volatile assets.
📊 State Analysis
Analysis Levels:
What It Is: The number of discrete "states" for the QSA.
How It Works: More levels create a finer-grained analysis of price location.
How To Use It: 6-7 levels are ideal. Increasing to 9 can provide more precision on very volatile assets.
Edge Sensitivity:
What It Is: Defines how close to the absolute top/bottom of the range price must be.
How It Works: '0' means price must be in the absolute highest/lowest state. '3' allows a signal within the top/bottom 3 states.
How To Use It: '3' provides a good balance. Lower it to '1' or '0' if you only want to trade extreme exhaustion.
The Dashboard: Your Dynamics Control Center
The dashboard provides a transparent, real-time view into the engine's brain. Use it to understand the context behind every signal and to gauge the current market environment at a glance.
🎯 UNIFIED PROB SCORE
TOTAL SCORE: The highest probability score (either Peak or Valley) the engine is currently calculating. This is your main at-a-glance conviction metric. The "Singularity" header refers to the event where market dynamics align—the event RPD is built to detect.
Quality: A human-readable interpretation of the Total Score. "EXCEPTIONAL" (🌟) is a rare, A+ confluence event. "STRONG" (💪) is a high-quality, tradable setup.
📊 ORDER FLOW & COMPONENT ANALYSIS
Volume Spike: Shows if the current volume is significantly higher than average (YES/NO). A 'YES' adds major confirmation.
Peak/Valley Conf: This breaks down the probability score into its directional components, showing you the separate confidence levels for a potential top (Peak) versus a bottom (Valley).
🌌 MARKET STRUCTURE
HTF Trend: Shows the direction of the underlying trend based on a Supertrend calculation.
Entropy: The current market chaos reading. "🔥 LOW" is an ideal, ordered state for trading. "😴 HIGH" is a warning of choppy, unpredictable conditions.
🔮 FIB & R2R ZONE (Large Dashboard)
This section gives you the status of the Fibonacci Target Engine. It shows if an Active Channel (entry zone) or Stop Zone (invalidation zone) is active and displays the precise price levels for the static entry, target, and stop calculated at the time of the signal.
🛡️ FILTERS & PREDICTIVES (Large Dashboard)
This panel provides a status check on all the bonus filters. It shows the current RSI Status, whether a Divergence is present, and if a Live Pending signal is forming.
The Visual Interface: A Symphony of Data
Every visual element is designed for instant, intuitive interpretation of market dynamics.
Signal Markers: These are the primary outputs of the engine.
▼/▲ b: A fully confirmed signal that has passed all filters.
? b: A tentative signal generated in Predictive Mode, indicating developing dynamics.
◈ b: This diamond icon replaces the standard triangle when the signal is confirmed by a strong momentum divergence, highlighting it as a superior setup where dynamics are misaligned with price.
Harmonic Wave: The flowing, colored wave around the price.
What It Represents: The market's "flow dynamic" and volatility.
How to Interpret It: Expanding waves show increasing volatility. The color is tied to the "Quantum Color" in your theme, representing the underlying energy field of the market.
Entropy Particles: The small dots appearing above/below price.
What They Represent: A direct visualization of the "order dynamic."
How to Interpret Them: Their presence signifies a low-entropy, ordered state ideal for trading. Their color indicates the direction of momentum (PSR velocity). Their absence means the market is too chaotic (high entropy).
The Fibonacci Target Engine: The dynamic R2R system appearing post-signal.
Static Fib Levels: Colored horizontal lines representing the market's "structural dynamic."
The Green "Active Channel" Box: Your zone of consideration. An area to manage a potential entry.
Development Philosophy
Reversal Point Dynamics was engineered to answer a fundamental question: can we objectively measure the forces behind a market turn? It is a synthesis of concepts from market microstructure, statistics, and information theory. The objective was never to create a "perfect" system, but to build a robust decision-support tool that provides a measurable, statistical edge by focusing on the principle of confluence.
By demanding that multiple, independent market dynamics align simultaneously, RPD filters out the vast majority of market noise. It is designed for the trader who thinks in terms of probability and risk management, not in terms of certainties. It is a tool to help you discount the obvious and bet on the unexpected alignment of market forces.
"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."
— George Soros
Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
— Dskyz, for DAFE Trading Systems
Smart MTF S/R Levels[BullByte]
Smart MTF S/R Levels
Introduction & Motivation
Support and Resistance (S/R) levels are the backbone of technical analysis. However, most traders face two major challenges:
Manual S/R Marking: Drawing S/R levels by hand is time-consuming, subjective, and often inconsistent.
Multi-Timeframe Blind Spots: Key S/R levels from higher or lower timeframes are often missed, leading to surprise reversals or missed opportunities.
Smart MTF S/R Levels was created to solve these problems. It is a fully automated, multi-timeframe, multi-method S/R detection and visualization tool, designed to give traders a complete, objective, and actionable view of the market’s most important price zones.
What Makes This Indicator Unique?
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Simultaneously analyzes up to three user-selected timeframes, ensuring you never miss a critical S/R level from any timeframe.
Multi-Method Confluence: Integrates several respected S/R detection methods—Swings, Pivots, Fibonacci, Order Blocks, and Volume Profile—into a single, unified system.
Zone Clustering: Automatically merges nearby levels into “zones” to reduce clutter and highlight areas of true market consensus.
Confluence Scoring: Each zone is scored by the number of methods and timeframes in agreement, helping you instantly spot the most significant S/R areas.
Reaction Counting: Tracks how many times price has recently interacted with each zone, providing a real-world measure of its importance.
Customizable Dashboard: A real-time, on-chart table summarizes all key S/R zones, their origins, confluence, and proximity to price.
Smart Alerts: Get notified when price approaches high-confluence zones, so you never miss a critical trading opportunity.
Why Should a Trader Use This?
Objectivity: Removes subjectivity from S/R analysis by using algorithmic detection and clustering.
Efficiency: Saves hours of manual charting and reduces analysis fatigue.
Comprehensiveness: Ensures you are always aware of the most relevant S/R zones, regardless of your trading timeframe.
Actionability: The dashboard and alerts make it easy to act on the most important levels, improving trade timing and risk management.
Adaptability: Works for all asset classes (stocks, forex, crypto, futures) and all trading styles (scalping, swing, position).
The Gap This Indicator Fills
Most S/R indicators focus on a single method or timeframe, leading to incomplete analysis. Manual S/R marking is error-prone and inconsistent. This indicator fills the gap by:
Automating S/R detection across multiple timeframes and methods
Objectively scoring and ranking zones by confluence and reaction
Presenting all this information in a clear, actionable dashboard
How Does It Work? (Technical Logic)
1. Level Detection
For each selected timeframe, the script detects S/R levels using:
SW (Swing High/Low): Recent price pivots where reversals occurred.
Pivot: Classic floor trader pivots (P, S1, R1).
Fib (Fibonacci): Key retracement levels (0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786) over the last 50 bars.
Bull OB / Bear OB: Institutional price zones based on bullish/bearish engulfing patterns.
VWAP / POC: Volume Weighted Average Price and Point of Control over the last 50 bars.
2. Level Clustering
Levels within a user-defined % distance are merged into a single “zone.”
Each zone records which methods and timeframes contributed to it.
3. Confluence & Reaction Scoring
Confluence: The number of unique methods/timeframes in agreement for a zone.
Reactions: The number of times price has touched or reversed at the zone in the recent past (user-defined lookback).
4. Filtering & Sorting
Only zones within a user-defined % of the current price are shown (to focus on actionable areas).
Zones can be sorted by confluence, reaction count, or proximity to price.
5. Visualization
Zones: Shaded boxes on the chart (green for support, red for resistance, blue for mixed).
Lines: Mark the exact level of each zone.
Labels: Show level, methods by timeframe (e.g., 15m (3 SW), 30m (1 VWAP)), and (if applicable) Fibonacci ratios.
Dashboard Table: Lists all nearby zones with full details.
6. Alerts
Optional alerts trigger when price approaches a zone with confluence above a user-set threshold.
Inputs & Customization (Explained for All Users)
Show Timeframe 1/2/3: Enable/disable analysis for each timeframe (e.g., 15m, 30m, 1h).
Show Swings/Pivots/Fibonacci/Order Blocks/Volume Profile: Select which S/R methods to include.
Show levels within X% of price: Only display zones near the current price (default: 3%).
How many swing highs/lows to show: Number of recent swings to include (default: 3).
Cluster levels within X%: Merge levels close together into a single zone (default: 0.25%).
Show Top N Zones: Limit the number of zones displayed (default: 8).
Bars to check for reactions: How far back to count price reactions (default: 100).
Sort Zones By: Choose how to rank zones in the dashboard (Confluence, Reactions, Distance).
Alert if Confluence >=: Set the minimum confluence score for alerts (default: 3).
Zone Box Width/Line Length/Label Offset: Control the appearance of zones and labels.
Dashboard Size/Location: Customize the dashboard table.
How to Read the Output
Shaded Boxes: Represent S/R zones. The color indicates type (green = support, red = resistance, blue = mixed).
Lines: Mark the precise level of each zone.
Labels: Show the level, methods by timeframe (e.g., 15m (3 SW), 30m (1 VWAP)), and (if applicable) Fibonacci ratios.
Dashboard Table: Columns include:
Level: Price of the zone
Methods (by TF): Which S/R methods and how many, per timeframe (see abbreviation key below)
Type: Support, Resistance, or Mixed
Confl.: Confluence score (higher = more significant)
React.: Number of recent price reactions
Dist %: Distance from current price (in %)
Abbreviations Used
SW = Swing High/Low (recent price pivots where reversals occurred)
Fib = Fibonacci Level (key retracement levels such as 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786)
VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price (price level weighted by volume)
POC = Point of Control (price level with the highest traded volume)
Bull OB = Bullish Order Block (institutional support zone from bullish price action)
Bear OB = Bearish Order Block (institutional resistance zone from bearish price action)
Pivot = Pivot Point (classic floor trader pivots: P, S1, R1)
These abbreviations appear in the dashboard and chart labels for clarity.
Example: How to Read the Dashboard and Labels (from the chart above)
Suppose you are trading BTCUSDT on a 15-minute chart. The dashboard at the top right shows several S/R zones, each with a breakdown of which timeframes and methods contributed to their detection:
Resistance zone at 119257.11:
The dashboard shows:
5m (1 SW), 15m (2 SW), 1h (3 SW)
This means the level 119257.11 was identified as a resistance zone by one swing high (SW) on the 5-minute timeframe, two swing highs on the 15-minute timeframe, and three swing highs on the 1-hour timeframe. The confluence score is 6 (total number of method/timeframe hits), and there has been 1 recent price reaction at this level. This suggests 119257.11 is a strong resistance zone, confirmed by multiple swing highs across all selected timeframes.
Mixed zone at 118767.97:
The dashboard shows:
5m (2 SW), 15m (2 SW)
This means the level 118767.97 was identified by two swing points on both the 5-minute and 15-minute timeframes. The confluence score is 4, and there have been 19 recent price reactions at this level, indicating it is a highly reactive zone.
Support zone at 117411.35:
The dashboard shows:
5m (2 SW), 1h (2 SW)
This means the level 117411.35 was identified as a support zone by two swing lows on the 5-minute timeframe and two swing lows on the 1-hour timeframe. The confluence score is 4, and there have been 2 recent price reactions at this level.
Mixed zone at 118291.45:
The dashboard shows:
15m (1 SW, 1 VWAP), 5m (1 VWAP), 1h (1 VWAP)
This means the level 118291.45 was identified by a swing and VWAP on the 15-minute timeframe, and by VWAP on both the 5-minute and 1-hour timeframes. The confluence score is 4, and there have been 12 recent price reactions at this level.
Support zone at 117103.10:
The dashboard shows:
15m (1 SW), 1h (1 SW)
This means the level 117103.10 was identified by a single swing low on both the 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes. The confluence score is 2, and there have been no recent price reactions at this level.
Resistance zone at 117899.33:
The dashboard shows:
5m (1 SW)
This means the level 117899.33 was identified by a single swing high on the 5-minute timeframe. The confluence score is 1, and there have been no recent price reactions at this level.
How to use this:
Zones with higher confluence (more methods and timeframes in agreement) and more recent reactions are generally more significant. For example, the resistance at 119257.11 is much stronger than the resistance at 117899.33, and the mixed zone at 118767.97 has shown the most recent price reactions, making it a key area to watch for potential reversals or breakouts.
Tip:
“SW” stands for Swing High/Low, and “VWAP” stands for Volume Weighted Average Price.
The format 15m (2 SW) means two swing points were detected on the 15-minute timeframe.
Best Practices & Recommendations
Use with Other Tools: This indicator is most powerful when combined with your own price action analysis and risk management.
Adjust Settings: Experiment with timeframes, clustering, and methods to suit your trading style and the asset’s volatility.
Watch for High Confluence: Zones with higher confluence and more reactions are generally more significant.
Limitations
No Future Prediction: The indicator does not predict future price movement; it highlights areas where price is statistically more likely to react.
Not a Standalone System: Should be used as part of a broader trading plan.
Historical Data: Reaction counts are based on historical price action and may not always repeat.
Disclaimer
This indicator is a technical analysis tool and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use proper risk management and consult a financial advisor if needed.
Chaithanya Tattva Volume Zones📜 "Chaitanya Tattva" Volume Zones:-
A Sacred Framework of Supply, Demand & Market Energy
In the world of financial markets, price is said to reflect all information. But the true pulse of the market — its life force, its intent, and its moment of truth — is most vividly expressed not in price itself, but in volume.
Chaitanya Tattva Volume Zones is a spiritually inspired volume-based tool that transforms your chart into a canvas of market consciousness, revealing moments where supply and demand engage in visible energetic spikes. These moments are often disguised as ordinary candles, but with this tool, you uncover zones of intent — footprints left by the market’s deeper intelligence.
🌟 Why “Chaitanya Tattva”?
Chaitanya (चैतन्य) is a Sanskrit word meaning consciousness, awareness, or the spark of life energy. It is that which animates — the subtle intelligence behind all movement.
Tattva (तत्त्व) refers to essence, truth, or the underlying principle of a thing. In classical yogic philosophy, the tattvas are the elemental building blocks of reality.
Together, Chaitanya Tattva represents the conscious essence — the living pulse that animates the market through volume surges and imbalances.
This tool is not just a technical indicator — it is a spiritual observation device that aligns with the rhythm of volume and price action. It doesn't predict the market. It reveals when the market has already spoken — loudly, clearly, and energetically.
📈 What Does the Tool Do?
Chaitanya Tattva Volume Zones identifies exceptional volume spikes within the recent price history and visually marks the areas where market intent has been most active.
Specifically, the tool:
Scans for volume spikes that exceed all the volume of the last N bars (default is 20)
Confirms whether the spike happened on a bullish candle (close > open) or bearish candle (close < open)
For a bullish spike, it marks a Supply Zone — the area between the high and close of the candle
For a bearish spike, it marks a Demand Zone — the area between the low and close
Visually paints these zones with soft translucent boxes (red for supply, green for demand) that extend forward across multiple bars
🧘♂️ The Spiritual Framework
🔴 Supply = "Agni" — The Fire of Expansion
When a bullish candle erupts with historically high volume, it symbolizes the fire (Agni) of market optimism and upward expansion. It means that buyers have absorbed available supply at that level and established dominance — but such fire may also signal exhaustion, making it a potential supply barrier if price returns.
These Supply Zones are areas where:
Sellers are likely to re-engage
Smart money may be unloading
Future resistance can be anticipated
But unlike traditional indicators, this tool doesn’t guess. It reacts only to a clear volume-based event — when market energy surges — and locks in that awareness through zone marking.
🟢 Demand = "Prithvi" — The Grounding of Price
On the other hand, a bearish candle with extremely high volume represents the Earth (Prithvi) — grounding the price with firm hands. A strong volume drop often means buyers are stepping in, absorbing the selling pressure.
These Demand Zones are areas where:
Buying interest is proven
Market memory is stored
Future support can be expected
By respecting these zones, you're aligning your trading with natural market boundaries — not theoretical ones.
🧠 How Is It Different from Regular Volume Tools?
While most volume indicators show bars on a lower panel, they leave interpretation up to the trader. “High” or “low” becomes subjective.
Chaitanya Tattva Volume Zones is different:
It quantifies "spike": a bar must exceed all previous N volumes
It qualifies the intent: was the spike bullish or bearish?
It marks zones on the price chart: no need to guess levels
It preserves market memory: the zones persist visually for easy reference
In essence, this tool doesn’t just report volume — it interprets volume’s context and visually encodes it into the chart.
🧘 How to Use
1. Support/Resistance Mapping
Use the tool to understand where volume proved itself. If price revisits a red zone, expect possible rejection (resistance). If price revisits a green zone, expect possible absorption (support).
2. Entry Triggers
You may enter:
Long near demand zones if bullish confirmation appears
Short near supply zones if bearish confirmation appears
3. Stop Placement
Stops can be placed just beyond the zone boundary to align with areas where smart money historically defended.
4. Breakout Confidence
When price breaks through one of these zones with momentum, it often signals a new energetic wave — the old balance has been overcome.
🔔 Key Features
Volume spike detection across any timeframe
Clear visual zones — no clutter, no lag
Highly customizable: zone width, volume lookback, colors
Philosophy-aligned with supply and demand theory, Wyckoff, and Order Flow
🌌 A Metaphysical View of Volume
In yogic science, volume is akin to Prana — life-force energy. A market is not moved by price alone but by intent, force, and participation — all encoded in volume.
Just as a human body pulses with blood when action intensifies, the market pulses with volume when institutional decisions are made.
These pulses become sacred footprints — and Chaitanya Tattva Volume Zones helps you walk mindfully among them.
🔮 Final Thoughts
In a sea of indicators that shout at you with every tick, Chaitanya Tattva is calm. It speaks only when energy concentrates, only when the market sends a signal born of intent.
It doesn’t predict.
It doesn’t repaint.
It simply shows the truth, when the truth becomes undeniable.
Like a sage that speaks only when needed, it waits for volume to prove itself — then draws a memory into space, a zone where traders can re-align their actions with what the market has already honored.
Use it not just to trade —
But to listen.
To observe.
To follow the Chaitanya — the conscious pulse of the market’s own breath.
KST Strategy [Skyrexio]Overview
KST Strategy leverages Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator in conjunction with the Williams Alligator and Moving average to obtain the high probability setups. KST is used for for having the high probability to enter in the direction of a current trend when momentum is rising, Alligator is used as a short term trend filter, while Moving average approximates the long term trend and allows trades only in its direction. Also strategy has the additional optional filter on Choppiness Index which does not allow trades if market is choppy, above the user-specified threshold. Strategy has the user specified take profit and stop-loss numbers, but multiplied by Average True Range (ATR) value on the moment when trade is open. The strategy opens only long trades.
Unique Features
ATR based stop-loss and take profit. Instead of fixed take profit and stop-loss percentage strategy utilizes user chosen numbers multiplied by ATR for its calculation.
Configurable Trading Periods. Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions.
Optional Choppiness Index filter. Strategy allows to choose if it will use the filter trades with Choppiness Index and set up its threshold.
Methodology
The strategy opens long trade when the following price met the conditions:
Close price is above the Alligator's jaw line
Close price is above the filtering Moving average
KST line of Know Sure Thing indicator shall cross over its signal line (details in justification of methodology)
If the Choppiness Index filter is enabled its value shall be less than user defined threshold
When the long trade is executed algorithm defines the stop-loss level as the low minus user defined number, multiplied by ATR at the trade open candle. Also it defines take profit with close price plus user defined number, multiplied by ATR at the trade open candle. While trade is in progress, if high price on any candle above the calculated take profit level or low price is below the calculated stop loss level, trade is closed.
Strategy settings
In the inputs window user can setup the following strategy settings:
ATR Stop Loss (by default = 1.5, number of ATRs to calculate stop-loss level)
ATR Take Profit (by default = 3.5, number of ATRs to calculate take profit level)
Filter MA Type (by default = Least Squares MA, type of moving average which is used for filter MA)
Filter MA Length (by default = 200, length for filter MA calculation)
Enable Choppiness Index Filter (by default = true, setting to choose the optional filtering using Choppiness index)
Choppiness Index Threshold (by default = 50, Choppiness Index threshold, its value shall be below it to allow trades execution)
Choppiness Index Length (by default = 14, length used in Choppiness index calculation)
KST ROC Length #1 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #2 (by default = 15, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #3 (by default = 20, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST ROC Length #4 (by default = 30, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #1 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #2 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #3 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST SMA Length #4 (by default = 15, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
KST Signal Line Length (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology)
User can choose the optimal parameters during backtesting on certain price chart.
Justification of Methodology
Before understanding why this particular combination of indicator has been chosen let's briefly explain what is KST, Williams Alligator, Moving Average, ATR and Choppiness Index.
The KST (Know Sure Thing) is a momentum oscillator developed by Martin Pring. It combines multiple Rate of Change (ROC) values, smoothed over different timeframes, to identify trend direction and momentum strength. First of all, what is ROC? ROC (Rate of Change) is a momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price between the current price and the price a set number of periods ago.
ROC = 100 * (Current Price - Price N Periods Ago) / Price N Periods Ago
In our case N is the KST ROC Length inputs from settings, here we will calculate 4 different ROCs to obtain KST value:
KST = ROC1_smooth × 1 + ROC2_smooth × 2 + ROC3_smooth × 3 + ROC4_smooth × 4
ROC1 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #1), smoothed by KST SMA Length #1,
ROC2 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #2), smoothed by KST SMA Length #2,
ROC3 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #3), smoothed by KST SMA Length #3,
ROC4 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #4), smoothed by KST SMA Length #4
Also for this indicator the signal line is calculated:
Signal = SMA(KST, KST Signal Line Length)
When the KST line rises, it indicates increasing momentum and suggests that an upward trend may be developing. Conversely, when the KST line declines, it reflects weakening momentum and a potential downward trend. A crossover of the KST line above its signal line is considered a buy signal, while a crossover below the signal line is viewed as a sell signal. If the KST stays above zero, it indicates overall bullish momentum; if it remains below zero, it points to bearish momentum. The KST indicator smooths momentum across multiple timeframes, helping to reduce noise and provide clearer signals for medium- to long-term trends.
Next, let’s discuss the short-term trend filter, which combines the Williams Alligator and Williams Fractals. Williams Alligator
Developed by Bill Williams, the Alligator is a technical indicator that identifies trends and potential market reversals. It consists of three smoothed moving averages:
Jaw (Blue Line): The slowest of the three, based on a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars ahead.
Teeth (Red Line): The medium-speed line, derived from an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars forward.
Lips (Green Line): The fastest line, calculated using a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars forward.
When the lines diverge and align in order, the "Alligator" is "awake," signaling a strong trend. When the lines overlap or intertwine, the "Alligator" is "asleep," indicating a range-bound or sideways market. This indicator helps traders determine when to enter or avoid trades.
The next indicator is Moving Average. It has a lot of different types which can be chosen to filter trades and the Least Squares MA is used by default settings. Let's briefly explain what is it.
The Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) — also known as Linear Regression Moving Average — is a trend-following indicator that uses the least squares method to fit a straight line to the price data over a given period, then plots the value of that line at the most recent point. It draws the best-fitting straight line through the past N prices (using linear regression), and then takes the endpoint of that line as the value of the moving average for that bar. The LSMA aims to reduce lag and highlight the current trend more accurately than traditional moving averages like SMA or EMA.
Key Features:
It reacts faster to price changes than most moving averages.
It is smoother and less noisy than short-term EMAs.
It can be used to identify trend direction, momentum, and potential reversal points.
ATR (Average True Range) is a volatility indicator that measures how much an asset typically moves during a given period. It was introduced by J. Welles Wilder and is widely used to assess market volatility, not direction.
To calculate it first of all we need to get True Range (TR), this is the greatest value among:
High - Low
abs(High - Previous Close)
abs(Low - Previous Close)
ATR = MA(TR, n) , where n is number of periods for moving average, in our case equals 14.
ATR shows how much an asset moves on average per candle/bar. A higher ATR means more volatility; a lower ATR means a calmer market.
The Choppiness Index is a technical indicator that quantifies whether the market is trending or choppy (sideways). It doesn't indicate trend direction — only the strength or weakness of a trend. Higher Choppiness Index usually approximates the sideways market, while its low value tells us that there is a high probability of a trend.
Choppiness Index = 100 × log10(ΣATR(n) / (MaxHigh(n) - MinLow(n))) / log10(n)
where:
ΣATR(n) = sum of the Average True Range over n periods
MaxHigh(n) = highest high over n periods
MinLow(n) = lowest low over n periods
log10 = base-10 logarithm
Now let's understand how these indicators work in conjunction and why they were chosen for this strategy. KST indicator approximates current momentum, when it is rising and KST line crosses over the signal line there is high probability that short term trend is reversing to the upside and strategy allows to take part in this potential move. Alligator's jaw (blue) line is used as an approximation of a short term trend, taking trades only above it we want to avoid trading against trend to increase probability that long trade is going to be winning.
Almost the same for Moving Average, but it approximates the long term trend, this is just the additional filter. If we trade in the direction of the long term trend we increase probability that higher risk to reward trade will hit the take profit. Choppiness index is the optional filter, but if it turned on it is used for approximating if now market is in sideways or in trend. On the range bounded market the potential moves are restricted. We want to decrease probability opening trades in such condition avoiding trades if this index is above threshold value.
When trade is open script sets the stop loss and take profit targets. ATR approximates the current volatility, so we can make a decision when to exit a trade based on current market condition, it can increase the probability that strategy will avoid the excessive stop loss hits, but anyway user can setup how many ATRs to use as a stop loss and take profit target. As was said in the Methodology stop loss level is obtained by subtracting number of ATRs from trade opening candle low, while take profit by adding to this candle's close.
Backtest Results
Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2025.05.01. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions.
Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks.
Initial capital: 10000 USDT
Percent of capital used in every trade: 60%
Maximum Single Position Loss: -5.53%
Maximum Single Profit: +8.35%
Net Profit: +5175.20 USDT (+51.75%)
Total Trades: 120 (56.67% win rate)
Profit Factor: 1.747
Maximum Accumulated Loss: 1039.89 USDT (-9.1%)
Average Profit per Trade: 43.13 USDT (+0.6%)
Average Trade Duration: 27 hours
These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters.
How to Use
Add the script to favorites for easy access.
Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 1h BTC/USDT).
Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu.
Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}}
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrexio commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation.
Heikin RiderHeikin Rider
Smoothed Heikin Ashi Breakout Signals with Flow Confirmation
by Ben Deharde, 2025
Overview:
Heikin Rider is a trend-following indicator that detects clean breakout signals using a custom smoothed Heikin Ashi wave (the H-Wave) with optional confirmation from a flow-based filter. It's designed for traders who want precise, momentum-aligned entries.
What It Does:
Plots dynamic high/low bands from smoothed Heikin Ashi candles.
Triggers Buy/Sell signals on full candle breakouts above/below the wave.
Colors bars based on price position and momentum relative to a custom flow line.
Optionally filters signals based on flow direction.
How the H-Wave Works:
The H-Wave is a two-stage smoothed Heikin Ashi construction:
Pre-smoothing: Price is smoothed using a short-length MA (SMA, EMA, or HMA).
HA Calculation: Heikin Ashi values are calculated from the smoothed data.
Post-smoothing: A second, longer MA is applied to the HA values.
Wave Envelope: The high and low wicks of the final smoothed HA candles form the H-Wave envelope.
Signals are generated when price fully breaks this envelope, with optional confirmation from the flow color.
Inputs:
Trend timeframe
Pre/Post smoothing type and length
Flow MA type and length
Toggle for bar coloring and signal filtering
Notes:
Built with original logic, using the open-source TAExt library (credited).
No repainting — all signals are confirmed at close.
For use on standard candles only (not HA or Renko).
Alerts:
Long Signal (Buy)
Short Signal (Sell)
GCM Heikin Ashi with PivotsTitle: GCM Heikin Ashi with Pivots
Description:
Overview
This indicator provides a powerful combination of trend visualization, precise reversal signals, and volume confirmation in a clean, customizable sub-chart. It is designed to help traders identify trend momentum using Heikin Ashi candles, pinpoint confirmed swing highs and lows (pivots), and spot surges in buying pressure with our unique Volume Rate-of-Change (VROC) highlighter.
The key feature of this script is its non-repainting pivot signals. A pivot high or low is only confirmed and plotted after a specific number of subsequent bars have closed, ensuring the signals are reliable and do not change after they appear.
Key Features
Heikin Ashi Sub-Chart: Displays smoothed Heikin Ashi candles in a separate pane to clearly visualize trend strength and direction without cluttering the main price chart.
Non-Repainting Pivot Signals: Uses ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow to identify confirmed swing points. The signals will not repaint or move once they are printed on the chart.
Smart Volume Spike Analysis (VROC): A Heikin Ashi candle will be highlighted in a distinct bright green (#2dff00) when the volume increases significantly on a bullish price candle. This "volume-confirmed" candle can signal strong conviction behind a move.
Complete Label Customization: Take full control over the look and feel of your signals:
Label Mode: Choose between "High & Low" (H/L) or "Buy & Sell" (B/S) to match your trading terminology.
Custom Colors: Set unique colors for both the high and low pivot labels.
Label Style: Select from various shapes like boxes, circles, diamonds, or squares.
Label Size: Adjust the size of the labels from Tiny to Huge for perfect visibility.
Adjustable Pivot Sensitivity: Fine-tune the pivot detection algorithm by setting the number of bars required to the left (strength) and right (confirmation) of a pivot point.
How to Use & Interpret the Signals
Assess the Trend with Heikin Ashi:
A series of green HA candles with little to no lower wicks indicates strong bullish momentum.
A series of red HA candles with little to no upper wicks indicates strong bearish momentum.
Look for Volume Confirmation:
A bright green highlighted candle signals a surge in buying pressure (VROC spike). This adds significant weight to bullish moves and can act as a leading indicator for a new leg up.
Identify Entry/Exit Points with Pivot Labels:
An "L" or "B" label marks a confirmed swing low. This is a potential buying opportunity, especially if it is followed by green Heikin Ashi candles and, ideally, a bright green VROC spike candle.
An "H" or "S" label marks a confirmed swing high. This is a potential selling/shorting opportunity, especially as HA candles turn red.
Example Strategy (High-Confluence)
A powerful way to use this indicator is to look for a sequence of events:
Wait for a "Buy" (B) or "Low" (L) signal to appear, confirming a bottom has likely formed.
Wait for the first bright green VROC spike candle to appear after the signal. This confirms that buyers are stepping in with conviction.
Consider an entry based on this high-confluence setup, using the swing low as a potential stop-loss area.
Settings Explained
Pivot Detection:
Left Bars (Strength): Number of bars to the left of a pivot. A higher number finds more significant pivots.
Right Bars (Confirmation): Number of bars to the right required to confirm a pivot. This creates a lag for reliability.
Volume Spike Detection (VROC):
Enable Volume Spike Highlighting: Turn the bright green candle highlight on or off.
VROC Length: The lookback period for calculating the volume's rate of change.
VROC Threshold %: The percentage volume must increase to trigger a highlight.
Label Customization:
Label Text Mode: Choose between "High & Low" or "Buy & Sell".
Label Color, Style, and Size: Full cosmetic control for the pivot labels.
Final Note
This indicator is a tool to aid in technical analysis and should not be used as a standalone trading system. Always use it in conjunction with other analysis methods, proper risk management, and a sound trading plan.
Enjoy!
Percent Change IndicatorThe Percent Change Indicator helps you see how much the price of an asset has changed over a specific number of bars (or candles) on the chart. You get to decide how many bars to look back — for example, the last 10 candles. The indicator takes the current closing price and compares it to the closing price from 10 bars ago, then calculates the percentage difference between the two.
If the price has increased, the indicator shows a positive value and displays it in green. If the price has dropped, the value is negative and shown in red. A horizontal zero line helps you quickly see whether the market is gaining or losing value over the selected period.
On your chart, this indicator appears as a line that moves up or down with the price trend. It updates in real time and works on all timeframes — so whether you're trading on the 1-minute chart or analyzing the daily chart, it always tells you how much the price has changed over the number of bars you chose.
This tool is especially useful for spotting trends, measuring price momentum, or identifying when the market is starting to reverse direction.
Cumulative Intraday Volume with Long/Short LabelsThis indicator calculates a running total of volume for each trading day, then shows on the price chart when that total crosses levels you choose. Every day at 6:00 PM Eastern Time, the total goes back to zero so it always reflects only the current day’s activity. From that moment on, each time a new candle appears the indicator looks at whether the candle closed higher than it opened or lower. If it closed higher, the candle’s volume is added to the running total; if it closed lower, the same volume amount is subtracted. As a result, the total becomes positive when buyers have dominated so far today and negative when sellers have dominated.
Because futures markets close at 6 PM ET, the running total resets exactly then, mirroring the way most intraday traders think in terms of a single session. Throughout the day, you will see this running total move up or down according to whether more volume is happening on green or red candles. Once the total goes above a number you specify (for example, one hundred thousand contracts), the indicator will place a small “Long” label at that candle on the main price chart to let you know buying pressure has reached that level. Similarly, once the total goes below a negative number you choose (for example, minus one hundred thousand), a “Short” label will appear at that candle to signal that selling pressure has reached your chosen threshold. You can set these threshold numbers to whatever makes sense for your trading style or the market you follow.
Because raw volume alone never turns negative, this design uses candle direction as a sign. Green candles (where the close is higher than the open) add volume, and red candles (where the close is lower than the open) subtract volume. Summing those signed volume values tells you in a single number whether buying or selling has been stronger so far today. That number resets every evening, so it does not carry over any buying or selling from previous sessions.
Once you have this indicator on your chart, you simply watch the “summed volume” line as it moves throughout the day. If it climbs past your long threshold, you know buyers are firmly in control and a long entry might make sense. If it falls past your short threshold, you know sellers are firmly in control and a short entry might make sense. In quieter markets or times of low volume, you might use a smaller threshold so that even modest buying or selling pressure will trigger a label. During very active periods, a larger threshold will prevent too many signals when volume spikes frequently.
This approach is straightforward but can be surprisingly powerful. It does not rely on complex formulas or hidden statistical measures. Instead, it simply adds and subtracts daily volume based on candle color, then alerts you when that total reaches levels you care about. Over several years of historical testing, this formula has shown an ability to highlight moments when intraday sentiment shifts decisively from buyers to sellers or vice versa. Because the indicator resets every day at 6 PM, it always reflects only today’s sentiment and remains easy to interpret without carrying over past data. You can use it on any intraday timeframe, but it works especially well on five-minute or fifteen-minute charts for futures contracts.
If you want a clear gauge of whether buyers or sellers are dominating in real time, and you prefer a rule-based method rather than a complex model, this indicator gives you exactly that. It shows net buying or selling pressure at a glance, resets each session like most intraday traders do, and marks the moments when that pressure crosses the levels you decide are important. By combining a daily reset with signed volume, you get a single number that tells you precisely what the crowd is doing at any given moment, without any of the guesswork or hidden calculations that more complicated indicators often carry.
Bear Market Probability Model# Bear Market Probability Model: A Multi-Factor Risk Assessment Framework
The Bear Market Probability Model represents a comprehensive quantitative framework for assessing systemic market risk through the integration of 13 distinct risk factors across four analytical categories: macroeconomic indicators, technical analysis factors, market sentiment measures, and market breadth metrics. This indicator synthesizes established financial research methodologies to provide real-time probabilistic assessments of impending bear market conditions, offering institutional-grade risk management capabilities to retail and professional traders alike.
## Theoretical Foundation
### Historical Context of Bear Market Prediction
Bear market prediction has been a central focus of financial research since the seminal work of Dow (1901) and the subsequent development of technical analysis theory. The challenge of predicting market downturns gained renewed academic attention following the market crashes of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008, leading to the development of sophisticated multi-factor models.
Fama and French (1989) demonstrated that certain financial variables possess predictive power for stock returns, particularly during market stress periods. Their three-factor model laid the groundwork for multi-dimensional risk assessment, which this indicator extends through the incorporation of real-time market microstructure data.
### Methodological Framework
The model employs a weighted composite scoring methodology based on the theoretical framework established by Campbell and Shiller (1998) for market valuation assessment, extended through the incorporation of high-frequency sentiment and technical indicators as proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2006) in their seminal work on investor sentiment.
The mathematical foundation follows the general form:
Bear Market Probability = Σ(Wi × Ci) / ΣWi × 100
Where:
- Wi = Category weight (i = 1,2,3,4)
- Ci = Normalized category score
- Categories: Macroeconomic, Technical, Sentiment, Breadth
## Component Analysis
### 1. Macroeconomic Risk Factors
#### Yield Curve Analysis
The inclusion of yield curve inversion as a primary predictor follows extensive research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who demonstrated that the term spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury securities has historically preceded all major recessions since 1969. The model incorporates both the 2Y-10Y and 3M-10Y spreads to capture different aspects of monetary policy expectations.
Implementation:
- 2Y-10Y Spread: Captures market expectations of monetary policy trajectory
- 3M-10Y Spread: Traditional recession predictor with 12-18 month lead time
Scientific Basis: Harvey (1988) and subsequent research by Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2006) established the theoretical foundation linking yield curve inversions to economic contractions through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.
#### Credit Risk Premium Assessment
High-yield credit spreads serve as a real-time gauge of systemic risk, following the methodology established by Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) in their excess bond premium research. The model incorporates the ICE BofA High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread as a proxy for credit market stress.
Threshold Calibration:
- Normal conditions: < 350 basis points
- Elevated risk: 350-500 basis points
- Severe stress: > 500 basis points
#### Currency and Commodity Stress Indicators
The US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum serves as a risk-off indicator, while the Gold-to-Oil ratio captures commodity market stress dynamics. This approach follows the methodology of Akram (2009) and Beckmann, Berger, and Czudaj (2015) in analyzing commodity-currency relationships during market stress.
### 2. Technical Analysis Factors
#### Multi-Timeframe Moving Average Analysis
The technical component incorporates the well-established moving average convergence methodology, drawing from the work of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), who provided empirical evidence for the profitability of technical trading rules.
Implementation:
- Price relative to 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages
- Moving average convergence/divergence analysis
- Multi-timeframe MACD assessment (daily and weekly)
#### Momentum and Volatility Analysis
The model integrates Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis following Wilder's (1978) original methodology, combined with maximum drawdown analysis based on the work of Magdon-Ismail and Atiya (2004) on optimal drawdown measurement.
### 3. Market Sentiment Factors
#### Volatility Index Analysis
The VIX component follows the established research of Whaley (2009) and subsequent work by Bekaert and Hoerova (2014) on VIX as a predictor of market stress. The model incorporates both absolute VIX levels and relative VIX spikes compared to the 20-day moving average.
Calibration:
- Low volatility: VIX < 20
- Elevated concern: VIX 20-25
- High fear: VIX > 25
- Panic conditions: VIX > 30
#### Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Options flow analysis through put-call ratios provides insight into sophisticated investor positioning, following the methodology established by Pan and Poteshman (2006) in their analysis of informed trading in options markets.
### 4. Market Breadth Factors
#### Advance-Decline Analysis
Market breadth assessment follows the classic work of Fosback (1976) and subsequent research by Brown and Cliff (2004) on market breadth as a predictor of future returns.
Components:
- Daily advance-decline ratio
- Advance-decline line momentum
- McClellan Oscillator (Ema19 - Ema39 of A-D difference)
#### New Highs-New Lows Analysis
The new highs-new lows ratio serves as a market leadership indicator, based on the research of Zweig (1986) and validated in academic literature by Zarowin (1990).
## Dynamic Threshold Methodology
The model incorporates adaptive thresholds based on rolling volatility and trend analysis, following the methodology established by Pagan and Sossounov (2003) for business cycle dating. This approach allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing market conditions.
Dynamic Threshold Calculation:
- Warning Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.0)
- Danger Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.5)
- Bounds: ±10-20 points from base threshold
## Professional Implementation
### Institutional Usage Patterns
Professional risk managers typically employ multi-factor bear market models in several contexts:
#### 1. Portfolio Risk Management
- Tactical Asset Allocation: Reducing equity exposure when probability exceeds 60-70%
- Hedging Strategies: Implementing protective puts or VIX calls when warning thresholds are breached
- Sector Rotation: Shifting from growth to defensive sectors during elevated risk periods
#### 2. Risk Budgeting
- Value-at-Risk Adjustment: Incorporating bear market probability into VaR calculations
- Stress Testing: Using probability levels to calibrate stress test scenarios
- Capital Requirements: Adjusting regulatory capital based on systemic risk assessment
#### 3. Client Communication
- Risk Reporting: Quantifying market risk for client presentations
- Investment Committee Decisions: Providing objective risk metrics for strategic decisions
- Performance Attribution: Explaining defensive positioning during market stress
### Implementation Framework
Professional traders typically implement such models through:
#### Signal Hierarchy:
1. Probability < 30%: Normal risk positioning
2. Probability 30-50%: Increased hedging, reduced leverage
3. Probability 50-70%: Defensive positioning, cash building
4. Probability > 70%: Maximum defensive posture, short exposure consideration
#### Risk Management Integration:
- Position Sizing: Inverse relationship between probability and position size
- Stop-Loss Adjustment: Tighter stops during elevated risk periods
- Correlation Monitoring: Increased attention to cross-asset correlations
## Strengths and Advantages
### 1. Comprehensive Coverage
The model's primary strength lies in its multi-dimensional approach, avoiding the single-factor bias that has historically plagued market timing models. By incorporating macroeconomic, technical, sentiment, and breadth factors, the model provides robust risk assessment across different market regimes.
### 2. Dynamic Adaptability
The adaptive threshold mechanism allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing volatility conditions, reducing false signals during low-volatility periods and maintaining sensitivity during high-volatility regimes.
### 3. Real-Time Processing
Unlike traditional academic models that rely on monthly or quarterly data, this indicator processes daily market data, providing timely risk assessment for active portfolio management.
### 4. Transparency and Interpretability
The component-based structure allows users to understand which factors are driving risk assessment, enabling informed decision-making about model signals.
### 5. Historical Validation
Each component has been validated in academic literature, providing theoretical foundation for the model's predictive power.
## Limitations and Weaknesses
### 1. Data Dependencies
The model's effectiveness depends heavily on the availability and quality of real-time economic data. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) updates may have lags that could impact model responsiveness during rapidly evolving market conditions.
### 2. Regime Change Sensitivity
Like most quantitative models, the indicator may struggle during unprecedented market conditions or structural regime changes where historical relationships break down (Taleb, 2007).
### 3. False Signal Risk
Multi-factor models inherently face the challenge of balancing sensitivity with specificity. The model may generate false positive signals during normal market volatility periods.
### 4. Currency and Geographic Bias
The model focuses primarily on US market indicators, potentially limiting its effectiveness for global portfolio management or non-USD denominated assets.
### 5. Correlation Breakdown
During extreme market stress, correlations between risk factors may increase dramatically, reducing the model's diversification benefits (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002).
## References
Akram, Q. F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. Energy Economics, 31(6), 838-851.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M., & Wei, M. (2006). What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth? Journal of Econometrics, 131(1-2), 359-403.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48, 16-24.
Bekaert, G., & Hoerova, M. (2014). The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 183(2), 181-192.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764.
Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2004). Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(2), 11-26.
Dow, C. H. (1901). Scientific stock speculation. The Magazine of Wall Street.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49.
Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223-2261.
Fosback, N. G. (1976). Stock market logic: A sophisticated approach to profits on Wall Street. The Institute for Econometric Research.
Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. American Economic Review, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Harvey, C. R. (1988). The real term structure and consumption growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(2), 305-333.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Magdon-Ismail, M., & Atiya, A. F. (2004). Maximum drawdown. Risk, 17(10), 99-102.
Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
Pagan, A. R., & Sossounov, K. A. (2003). A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 23-46.
Pan, J., & Poteshman, A. M. (2006). The information in option volume for future stock prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(3), 871-908.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
Whaley, R. E. (2009). Understanding the VIX. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35(3), 98-105.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New concepts in technical trading systems. Trend Research.
Zarowin, P. (1990). Size, seasonality, and stock market overreaction. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(1), 113-125.
Zweig, M. E. (1986). Winning on Wall Street. Warner Books.
ADR & ATR OverlayADR & ATR Overlay
This indicator will display the following as an overlay on your chart:
ADR
% of ADR
ADR % of Price
ATR
% of ATR
ATR % of Price
Description:
ADR : Average Day Range
% of ADR : Percentage that the current price move has covered its average.
ADR % of Price : The percentage move implied by the average range.
ATR : Average True Range
% of ATR : Percentage that the current price move has covered its average.
ATR % of Price : The percentage move implied by the average true range.
Options:
Time Frame
Length
Smoothing
Enable or Disable each value
Text Color
Background Color
How to use this indicator:
The ADR and ATR can be used to provide information about average price moves to help set targets, stop losses, entries and exits based on the potential average moves.
Example: If the "% of ADR" is reading 100%, then 100% of the asset's average price range has been covered, suggesting that an additional move beyond the range has a lower probability.
Example: "ADR % of Price" provides potential price movement in percentage which can be used to asses R/R for asset.
Example: ADR (D) reading is 100% at market close but ATR (D) is at 70% at close. This suggests that there is a potential move of 30% in Pre/Post market as suggested by averages.
Notes:
These indicators are available as oscillators to place under your chart through trading view but this indicator will place them on the chart in numerical only format.
Please feel free to modify this script if you like but please acknowledge me, I am only a hobby coder so this takes some time & effort.
3 Candles Gap3 Candle Gap Indicator is made to detect these types of patterns:
1. 3 consecutive bullish or bearish candles
2. the middle candle true body (body excluding shadows) has a part that is not covered by previous and next candle shadows (gap)
This pattern helps traders to detect candles where price has moved in a direction and gap has formed (price is not covered by previous or next candles shadows), this is a signal showing price momentum where one side (bulls/bears) is so powerful at moving the price that the other side (bears/bulls) can't get price back to cover the gap.
This indicator has "repainting" by 1 candle which means, it uses the data from future to work, however this future data does not go further than 1 candle.
Smarter Money Concepts - OBs [PhenLabs]📊 Smarter Money Concepts - OBs
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
Smarter Money Concepts - OBs (Order Blocks) is an advanced technical analysis tool designed to identify and visualize institutional order zones on your charts. Order blocks represent significant areas of liquidity where smart money has entered positions before major moves. By tracking these zones, traders can anticipate potential reversals, continuations, and key reaction points in price action.
This indicator incorporates volume filtering technology to identify only the most significant order blocks, eliminating low-quality signals and focusing on areas where institutional participation is likely present. The combination of price structure analysis and volume confirmation provides traders with high-probability zones that may attract future price action for tests, rejections, or breakouts.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Volume-Filtered Block Detection : Identifies only order blocks formed with significant volume, focusing on areas with institutional participation
Advanced Break of Structure Logic : Uses sophisticated price action analysis to detect legitimate market structure breaks preceding order blocks
Dynamic Block Management : Intelligently tracks, extends, and removes order blocks based on price interaction and time-based expiration
Structure Recognition System : Employs technical analysis algorithms to find significant swing points for accurate order block identification
Dual Directional Tracking : Simultaneously monitors both bullish and bearish order blocks for comprehensive market structure analysis
🔧 Core Components
Order Block Detection : Identifies institutional entry zones by analyzing price action before significant breaks of structure, capturing where smart money has likely positioned before moves.
Volume Filtering Algorithm : Calculates relative volume compared to a moving average to qualify only order blocks formed with significant market participation, eliminating noise.
Structure Break Recognition : Uses price action analysis to detect legitimate breaks of market structure, ensuring order blocks are identified only at significant market turning points.
Dynamic Block Management : Continuously monitors price interaction with existing blocks, extending, maintaining, or removing them based on current market behavior.
🔥 Key Features
Volume-Based Filtering : Filter out insignificant blocks by requiring a minimum volume threshold, focusing only on zones with likely institutional activity
Visual Block Highlighting : Color-coded boxes clearly mark bullish and bearish order blocks with customizable appearance
Flexible Mitigation Options : Choose between “Wick” or “Close” methods for determining when a block has been tested or mitigated
Scan Range Adjustment : Customize how far back the indicator looks for structure points to adapt to different market conditions and timeframes
Break Source Selection : Configure which price component (close, open, high, low) is used to determine structure breaks for precise block identification
🎨 Visualization
Bullish Order Blocks : Blue-colored rectangles highlighting zones where bullish institutional orders were likely placed before upward moves, representing potential support areas.
Bearish Order Blocks : Red-colored rectangles highlighting zones where bearish institutional orders were likely placed before downward moves, representing potential resistance areas.
Block Extension : Order blocks extend to the right of the chart, providing clear visualization of these significant zones as price continues to develop.
📖 Usage Guidelines
Order Block Settings
Scan Range : Default: 25. Defines how many bars the indicator scans to determine significant structure points for order block identification.
Bull Break Price Source : Default: Close. Determines which price component is used to detect bullish breaks of structure.
Bear Break Price Source : Default: Close. Determines which price component is used to detect bearish breaks of structure.
Visual Settings
Bullish Blocks Color : Default: Blue with 85% transparency. Controls the appearance of bullish order blocks.
Bearish Blocks Color : Default: Red with 85% transparency. Controls the appearance of bearish order blocks.
General Options
Block Mitigation Method : Default: Wick, Options: Wick, Close. Determines how block mitigation is calculated - “Wick” uses high/low values while “Close” uses close values for more conservative mitigation criteria.
Remove Filled Blocks : Default: Disabled. When enabled, order blocks are removed once they’ve been mitigated by price action.
Volume Filter
Volume Filter Enabled : Default: Enabled. When activated, only shows order blocks formed with significant volume relative to recent average.
Volume SMA Period : Default: 15, Range: 1-50. Number of periods used to calculate the average volume baseline.
Min. Volume Ratio : Default: 1.5, Range: 0.5-10.0. Minimum volume ratio compared to average required to display an order block; higher values filter out more blocks.
✅ Best Use Cases
Identifying high-probability support and resistance zones for trade entries and exits
Finding optimal stop-loss placement behind significant order blocks
Detecting potential reversal areas where price may react after extended moves
Confirming breakout trades when price clears major order blocks
Building a comprehensive market structure map for medium to long-term trading decisions
Pinpointing areas where smart money may have positioned before major market moves
⚠️ Limitations
Most effective on higher timeframes (1H and above) where institutional activity is more clearly defined
Can generate multiple signals in choppy market conditions, requiring additional filtering
Volume filtering relies on accurate volume data, which may be less reliable for some securities
Recent market structure changes may invalidate older order blocks not yet automatically removed
Block identification is based on historical price action and may not predict future behavior with certainty
💡 What Makes This Unique
Volume Intelligence : Unlike basic order block indicators, this script incorporates volume analysis to identify only the most significant institutional zones, focusing on quality over quantity.
Structural Precision : Uses sophisticated break of structure algorithms to identify true market turning points, going beyond simple price pattern recognition.
Dynamic Block Management : Implements automatic block tracking, extension, and cleanup to maintain a clean and relevant chart display without manual intervention.
Institutional Focus : Designed specifically to highlight areas where smart money has likely positioned, helping retail traders align with institutional perspectives rather than retail noise.
🔬 How It Works
1. Structure Identification Process :
The indicator continuously scans price action to identify significant swing points and structure levels within the specified range, establishing a foundation for order block recognition.
2. Break Detection :
When price breaks an established structure level (crossing below a significant low for bearish breaks or above a significant high for bullish breaks), the indicator marks this as a potential zone for order block formation.
3. Volume Qualification :
For each potential order block, the algorithm calculates the relative volume compared to the configured period average. Only blocks formed with volume exceeding the minimum ratio threshold are displayed.
4. Block Creation and Management :
Valid order blocks are created, tracked, and managed as price continues to develop. Blocks extend to the right of the chart until they are either mitigated by price action or expire after the designated timeframe.
5. Continuous Monitoring :
The indicator constantly evaluates price interaction with existing blocks, determining when blocks have been tested, mitigated, or invalidated, and updates the visual representation accordingly.
💡 Note:
Order Blocks represent areas where institutional traders have likely established positions and may defend these zones during future price visits. For optimal results, use this indicator in conjunction with other confluent factors such as key support/resistance levels, trendlines, or additional confirmation indicators. The most reliable signals typically occur on higher timeframes where institutional activity is most prominent. Start with the default settings and adjust parameters gradually to match your specific trading instrument and style.
Uptrick: Z-Score FlowOverview
Uptrick: Z-Score Flow is a technical indicator that integrates trend-sensitive momentum analysi s with mean-reversion logic derived from Z-Score calculations. Its primary objective is to identify market conditions where price has either stretched too far from its mean (overbought or oversold) or sits at a statistically “normal” range, and then cross-reference this observation with trend direction and RSI-based momentum signals. The result is a more contextual approach to trade entry and exit, emphasizing precision, clarity, and adaptability across varying market regimes.
Introduction
Financial instruments frequently transition between trending modes, where price extends strongly in one direction, and ranging modes, where price oscillates around a central value. A simple statistical measure like Z-Score can highlight price extremes by comparing the current price against its historical mean and standard deviation. However, such extremes alone can be misleading if the broader market structure is trending forcefully. Uptrick: Z-Score Flow aims to solve this gap by combining Z-Score with an exponential moving average (EMA) trend filter and a smoothed RSI momentum check, thus filtering out signals that contradict the prevailing market environment.
Purpose
The purpose of this script is to help traders pinpoint both mean-reversion opportunities and trend-based pullbacks in a way that is statistically grounded yet still mindful of overarching price action. By pairing Z-Score thresholds with supportive conditions, the script reduces the likelihood of acting on random price spikes or dips and instead focuses on movements that are significant within both historical and current contextual frameworks.
Originality and Uniquness
Layered Signal Verification: Signals require the fulfillment of multiple layers (Z-Score extreme, EMA trend bias, and RSI momentum posture) rather than merely breaching a statistical threshold.
RSI Zone Lockout: Once RSI enters an overbought/oversold zone and triggers a signal, the script locks out subsequent signals until RSI recovers above or below those zones, limiting back-to-back triggers.
Controlled Cooldown: A dedicated cooldown mechanic ensures that the script waits a specified number of bars before issuing a new signal in the opposite direction.
Gradient-Based Visualization: Distinct gradient fills between price and the Z-Mean line enhance readability, showing at a glance whether price is trading above or below its statistical average.
Comprehensive Metrics Panel: An optional on-chart table summarizes the Z-Score’s key metrics, streamlining the process of verifying current statistical extremes, mean levels, and momentum directions.
Why these indicators were merged
Z-Score measurements excel at identifying when price deviates from its mean, but they do not intrinsically reveal whether the market’s trajectory supports a reversion or if price might continue along its trend. The EMA, commonly used for spotting trend directions, offers valuable insight into whether price is predominantly ascending or descending. However, relying solely on a trend filter overlooks the intensity of price moves. RSI then adds a dedicated measure of momentum, helping confirm if the market’s energy aligns with a potential reversal (for example, price is statistically low but RSI suggests looming upward momentum). By uniting these three lenses—Z-Score for statistical context, EMA for trend direction, and RSI for momentum force—the script offers a more comprehensive and adaptable system, aiming to avoid false positives caused by focusing on just one aspect of price behavior.
Calculations
The core calculation begins with a simple moving average (SMA) of price over zLen bars, referred to as the basis. Next, the script computes the standard deviation of price over the same window. Dividing the difference between the current price and the basis by this standard deviation produces the Z-Score, indicating how many standard deviations the price is from its mean. A positive Z-Score reveals price is above its average; a negative reading indicates the opposite.
To detect overall market direction, the script calculates an exponential moving average (emaTrend) over emaTrendLen bars. If price is above this EMA, the script deems the market bullish; if below, it’s considered bearish. For momentum confirmation, the script computes a standard RSI over rsiLen bars, then applies a smoothing EMA over rsiEmaLen bars. This smoothed RSI (rsiEma) is monitored for both its absolute level (oversold or overbought) and its slope (the difference between the current and previous value). Finally, slopeIndex determines how many bars back the script compares the basis to check whether the Z-Mean line is generally rising, falling, or flat, which then informs the coloring scheme on the chart.
Calculations and Rational
Simple Moving Average for Baseline: An SMA is used for the core mean because it places equal weight on each bar in the lookback period. This helps maintain a straightforward interpretation of overbought or oversold conditions in the context of a uniform historical average.
Standard Deviation for Volatility: Standard deviation measures the variability of the data around the mean. By dividing price’s difference from the mean by this value, the Z-Score can highlight whether price is unusually stretched given typical volatility.
Exponential Moving Average for Trend: Unlike an SMA, an EMA places more emphasis on recent data, reacting quicker to new price developments. This quicker response helps the script promptly identify trend shifts, which can be crucial for filtering out signals that go against a strong directional move.
RSI for Momentum Confirmation: RSI is an oscillator that gauges price movement strength by comparing average gains to average losses over a set period. By further smoothing this RSI with another EMA, short-lived oscillations become less influential, making signals more robust.
SlopeIndex for Slope-Based Coloring: To clarify whether the market’s central tendency is rising or falling, the script compares the basis now to its level slopeIndex bars ago. A higher current reading indicates an upward slope; a lower reading, a downward slope; and similar readings, a flat slope. This is visually represented on the chart, providing an immediate sense of the directionality.
Inputs
zLen (Z-Score Period)
Specifies how many bars to include for computing the SMA and standard deviation that form the basis of the Z-Score calculation. Larger values produce smoother but slower signals; smaller values catch quick changes but may generate noise.
emaTrendLen (EMA Trend Filter)
Sets the length of the EMA used to detect the market’s primary direction. This is pivotal for distinguishing whether signals should be considered (price aligning with an uptrend or downtrend) or filtered out.
rsiLen (RSI Length)
Defines the window for the initial RSI calculation. This RSI, when combined with the subsequent smoothing EMA, forms the foundation for momentum-based signal confirmations.
rsiEmaLen (EMA of RSI Period)
Applies an exponential moving average over the RSI readings for additional smoothing. This step helps mitigate rapid RSI fluctuations that might otherwise produce whipsaw signals.
zBuyLevel (Z-Score Buy Threshold)
Determines how negative the Z-Score must be for the script to consider a potential oversold signal. If the Z-Score dives below this threshold (and other criteria are met), a buy signal is generated.
zSellLevel (Z-Score Sell Threshold)
Determines how positive the Z-Score must be for a potential overbought signal. If the Z-Score surpasses this threshold (and other checks are satisfied), a sell signal is generated.
cooldownBars (Cooldown (Bars))
Enforces a bar-based delay between opposite signals. Once a buy signal has fired, the script must wait the specified number of bars before registering a new sell signal, and vice versa.
slopeIndex (Slope Sensitivity (Bars))
Specifies how many bars back the script compares the current basis for slope coloration. A bigger slopeIndex highlights larger directional trends, while a smaller number emphasizes shorter-term shifts.
showMeanLine (Show Z-Score Mean Line)
Enables or disables the plotting of the Z-Mean and its slope-based coloring. Traders who prefer minimal chart clutter may turn this off while still retaining signals.
Features
Statistical Core (Z-Score Detection):
This feature computes the Z-Score by taking the difference between the current price and the basis (SMA) and dividing by the standard deviation. In effect, it translates price fluctuations into a standardized measure that reveals how significant a move is relative to the typical variation seen over the lookback. When the Z-Score crosses predefined thresholds (zBuyLevel for oversold and zSellLevel for overbought), it signals that price could be at an extreme.
How It Works: On each bar, the script updates the SMA and standard deviation. The Z-Score is then refreshed accordingly. Traders can interpret particularly large negative or positive Z-Score values as scenarios where price is abnormally low or high.
EMA Trend Filter:
An EMA over emaTrendLen bars is used to classify the market as bullish if the price is above it and bearish if the price is below it. This classification is applied to the Z-Score signals, accepting them only when they align with the broader price direction.
How It Works: If the script detects a Z-Score below zBuyLevel, it further checks if price is actually in a downtrend (below EMA) before issuing a buy signal. This might seem counterintuitive, but a “downtrend” environment plus an oversold reading often signals a potential bounce or a mean-reversion play. Conversely, for sell signals, the script checks if the market is in an uptrend first. If it is, an overbought reading aligns with potential profit-taking.
RSI Momentum Confirmation with Oversold/Overbought Lockout:
RSI is calculated over rsiLen, then smoothed by an EMA over rsiEmaLen. If this smoothed RSI dips below a certain threshold (for example, 30) and then begins to slope upward, the indicator treats it as a potential sign of recovering momentum. Similarly, if RSI climbs above a certain threshold (for instance, 70) and starts to slope downward, that suggests dwindling momentum. Additionally, once RSI is in these zones, the indicator locks out repetitive signals until RSI fully exits and re-enters those extreme territories.
How It Works: Each bar, the script measures whether RSI has dropped below the oversold threshold (like 30) and has a positive slope. If it does, the buy side is considered “unlocked.” For sell signals, RSI must exceed an overbought threshold (70) and slope downward. The combination of threshold and slope helps confirm that a reversal is genuinely in progress instead of issuing signals while momentum remains weak or stuck in extremes.
Cooldown Mechanism:
The script features a custom bar-based cooldown that prevents issuing new signals in the opposite direction immediately after one is triggered. This helps avoid whipsaw situations where the market quickly flips from oversold to overbought or vice versa.
How It Works: When a buy signal fires, the indicator notes the bar index. If the Z-Score and RSI conditions later suggest a sell, the script compares the current bar index to the last buy signal’s bar index. If the difference is within cooldownBars, the signal is disallowed. This ensures a predefined “quiet period” before switching signals.
Slope-Based Coloring (Z-Mean Line and Shadow):
The script compares the current basis value to its value slopeIndex bars ago. A higher reading now indicates a generally upward slope, while a lower reading indicates a downward slope. The script then shades the Z-Mean line in a corresponding bullish or bearish color, or remains neutral if little change is detected.
How It Works: This slope calculation is refreshingly straightforward: basis – basis . If the result is positive, the line is colored bullish; if negative, it is colored bearish; if approximately zero, it remains neutral. This provides a quick visual cue of the medium-term directional bias.
Gradient Overlays:
With gradient fills, the script highlights where price stands in relation to the Z-Mean. When price is above the basis, a purple-shaded region is painted, visually indicating a “bearish zone” for potential overbought conditions. When price is below, a teal-like overlay is used, suggesting a “bullish zone” for potential oversold conditions.
How It Works: Each bar, the script checks if price is above or below the basis. It then applies a fill between close and basis, using distinct colors to show whether the market is trading above or below its mean. This creates an immediate sense of how extended the market might be.
Buy and Sell Labels (with Alerts):
When a legitimate buy or sell condition passes every check (Z-Score threshold, EMA trend alignment, RSI gating, and cooldown clearance), the script plots a corresponding label directly on the chart. It also fires an alert (if alerts are set up), making it convenient for traders who want timely notifications.
How It Works: If rawBuy or rawSell conditions are met (refined by RSI, EMA trend, and cooldown constraints), the script calls the respective plot function to paint an arrow label on the chart. Alerts are triggered simultaneously, carrying easily recognizable messages.
Metrics Table:
The optional on-chart table (activated by showMetrics) presents real-time Z-Score data, including the current Z-Score, its rolling mean, the maximum and minimum Z-Score values observed over the last zLen bars, a percentile position, and a short-term directional note (rising, falling, or flat).
Current – The present Z-Score reading
Mean – Average Z-Score over the zLen period
Min/Max – Lowest and highest Z-Score values within zLen
Position – Where the current Z-Score sits between the min and max (as a percentile)
Trend – Whether the Z-Score is increasing, decreasing, or flat
Conclusion
Uptrick: Z-Score Flow offers a versatile solution for traders who need a statistically informed perspective on price extremes combined with practical checks for overall trend and momentum. By leveraging a well-defined combination of Z-Score, EMA trend classification, RSI-based momentum gating, slope-based visualization, and a cooldown mechanic, the script reduces the occurrence of false or premature signals. Its gradient fills and optional metrics table contribute further clarity, ensuring that users can quickly assess market posture and make more confident trading decisions in real time.
Disclaimer
This script is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Trading in any financial market comes with substantial risk, and there is no guarantee of success or the avoidance of loss. Historical performance does not ensure future results. Always conduct thorough research and consider professional guidance prior to making any investment or trading decisions.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression ModelThis is the main version of the script. Click here for the Oscillator part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. Click here for the other part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Dynamic Trend Indicator (DTI) - VWAP FilterThe Dynamic Trend Indicator (DTI) with VWAP Filter is a trend-following indicator.
It aims to identify and follow market trends while minimizing false signals in choppy or ranging markets.
The DTI combines a dynamically adjusted Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with a daily Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) confirmation filter and a cooldown mechanism to enhance signal reliability. This indicator is particularly useful for traders on intraday timeframes (e.g., 4-hour charts) who want to align their trades with the broader daily trend while avoiding whipsaws.
Key Features:
Dynamic Trend Line:
The core of the DTI is a trend line calculated using a custom EMA that adjusts its period dynamically based on market conditions.
The period of the EMA is determined by a combination of volatility (measured via ATR) and trend strength (measured via price momentum). In strong trends, the period shortens for faster responsiveness; in weak or ranging markets, it lengthens to reduce noise.
An optional smoothing EMA can be applied to the dynamic trend line to further reduce noise, with a user-defined smoothing length.
Daily VWAP Confirmation Filter:
A daily VWAP is calculated to provide a higher-timeframe trend bias. VWAP represents the average price paid for an asset during the day, weighted by volume, and is often used as a benchmark by institutional traders.
Buy signals are only generated when the price is above the daily VWAP (indicating a bullish daily bias), and sell signals are only generated when the price is below the VWAP (indicating a bearish daily bias).
The VWAP resets at the start of each day, ensuring it reflects the current day’s trading activity.
Cooldown Mechanism:
To prevent rapid signal reversals (whipsaws), the indicator includes a cooldown period between signals. After a buy or sell signal is generated, no new signals can be generated for a user-defined number of bars (default: 5 bars).
This helps filter out noise in choppy markets, ensuring signals are spaced out and more likely to align with significant trend changes.
Visual Elements:
Trend Line: Plotted on the chart, colored green when the price is above (uptrend) and red when below (downtrend). A gray color indicates a neutral trend.
Buy/Sell Signals: Displayed as green triangles below the bar for buy signals and red triangles above the bar for sell signals.
Background Coloring: The chart background is shaded green during uptrends and red during downtrends, providing a quick visual cue of the trend direction.
Daily VWAP Line: Optionally plotted as a purple step line, allowing traders to see the VWAP level and its relationship to the price.
Alerts:
The indicator includes built-in alerts for buy and sell signals, triggered when the price crosses the trend line and satisfies the VWAP filter and cooldown conditions.
Alert messages specify whether the signal is a buy or sell and confirm that the VWAP condition was met (e.g., "DTI Buy Signal: Price crossed above trend line and VWAP").
Input Parameters
Base Length (default: 14): The base period for calculating volatility and trend strength, used to adjust the dynamic EMA period.
Volatility Multiplier (default: 1.5): Adjusts the sensitivity of the dynamic period to market volatility (via ATR).
Trend Threshold (default: 0.5): Controls the sensitivity of the dynamic period to trend strength (via price momentum).
Use Smoothing (default: true): Enables/disables smoothing of the trend line with an additional EMA.
Smoothing Length (default: 3): The period for the smoothing EMA, if enabled.
Cooldown Bars (default: 5): The minimum number of bars between consecutive signals, reducing signal frequency in choppy markets.
Show Daily VWAP (default: true): Toggles the display of the daily VWAP line on the chart.
How It Works
Dynamic Trend Line Calculation:
Volatility is measured using the Average True Range (ATR) over the base length, scaled by the volatility multiplier.
Trend strength is calculated as the absolute price momentum (change in price over the base length) divided by the volatility factor.
The dynamic EMA period is adjusted based on the trend strength: stronger trends result in a shorter period (faster response), while weaker trends result in a longer period (more stability). The period is constrained between 5 and 50 to avoid extreme values.
A custom EMA function is used to handle the dynamic period, as Pine Script’s built-in ta.ema() requires a fixed length. The trend line is optionally smoothed with a secondary EMA.
Signal Generation:
A buy signal is generated when the price crosses above the trend line, the price is above the daily VWAP, and the cooldown period has elapsed.
A sell signal is generated when the price crosses below the trend line, the price is below the daily VWAP, and the cooldown period has elapsed.
The cooldown mechanism ensures that signals are not generated too frequently, reducing false signals in ranging markets.
Daily VWAP Calculation:
The VWAP is calculated by accumulating the price-volume product (close * volume) and total volume for the day, resetting at the start of each new day.
The VWAP is then computed as the cumulative price-volume divided by the cumulative volume, providing a volume-weighted average price for the day.
Usage
Timeframe: Best suited for intraday timeframes (e.g., 1-hour, 4-hour) where the daily VWAP provides a higher-timeframe trend bias. It can also be used on daily charts with adjustments to the cooldown period.
Markets: Works well in trending markets (e.g., forex, crypto, stocks) where the dynamic trend line can capture sustained price movements. The VWAP filter helps align signals with the daily trend, making it effective for assets with clear daily biases.
Trading Strategy:
Buy: Enter a long position when a green triangle (buy signal) appears, indicating the price has crossed above the trend line and is above the daily VWAP.
Sell: Enter a short position (or exit a long) when a red triangle (sell signal) appears, indicating the price has crossed below the trend line and is below the daily VWAP.
Use the trend line and VWAP as dynamic support/resistance levels to set stop-losses or take-profit targets.
Backtesting: Use TradingView’s strategy tester to evaluate the indicator’s performance on your chosen market and timeframe, adjusting parameters like cooldown_bars and volatility_mult to optimize for profitability.
Example
On a 4-hour SOLUSDT chart, the DTI with VWAP Filter might show:
An uptrend with the price above the green trend line and above the daily VWAP, generating buy signals as the price continues to rise.
A downtrend where the price falls below the red trend line and the daily VWAP, generating sell signals that align with the bearish daily bias.
During choppy periods, the cooldown mechanism and VWAP filter reduce false signals, ensuring trades are taken only when the price aligns with the daily trend.
Limitations
Lagging Nature: Like all trend-following indicators, the DTI may lag during sharp price reversals, as the dynamic EMA needs time to adjust.
Ranging Markets: While the VWAP filter and cooldown mechanism reduce whipsaws, the indicator may still generate some false signals in strongly ranging markets. Combining it with a trend strength filter (e.g., ADX) can help.
VWAP Dependency: The effectiveness of the VWAP filter depends on the market’s respect for the daily VWAP as a support/resistance level. In markets with low volume or erratic price action, the VWAP may be less reliable.
Potential Improvements
VWAP Buffer: Add a percentage buffer around the VWAP (e.g., require the price to be 1% above/below) to further reduce noise.
Multi-Timeframe VWAP: Incorporate a weekly VWAP for additional trend confirmation on longer timeframes.
Trend Strength Filter: Add an ADX filter to ensure signals are generated only during strong trends (e.g., ADX > 25).
