Basic BIASBasic BIAS
Deviation rate (bias), also known as deviation rate, or y-value for short, is an indicator to reflect the deviation degree between the price and MA in a certain period of time by calculating the percentage difference between the market index or closing price and a moving average, so as to obtain the possibility that the price will reverse or rebound due to deviation from moving average trend in case of severe fluctuation, and that the price will move within the normal fluctuation range Form the credibility of continuing the original potential.
The deviation rate is a percentage of the deviation degree (gap rate) between the price and ma.
The departure rate curve (bias) is a curve that connects the values of each bias into a line and obtains a wave extension curve with the value of 0 as the horizontal axis.
Wyszukaj w skryptach "curve"
Quadratic Least Squares Moving Average - Smoothing + Forecast Introduction
Technical analysis make often uses of classical statistical procedures, one of them being regression analysis, and since fitting polynomial functions that minimize the sum of squares can be achieved with the use of the mean, variance, covariance...etc, technical analyst only needed to replace the mean in all those calculations with a moving average, we then end up with a low lag filter called least squares moving average (lsma) .
The least squares moving average could be classified as a rolling linear regression, altho this sound really bad it is useful to understand the relationship of both methods, both have the same form, that is ax + b , where a and b are coefficients of the model. However in a simple linear regression a and b are constant, while the lsma use variables instead.
In a simple lsma we model the relationship of the closing price (dependent variable) with a linear sequence (independent variable), therefore x = 1,2,3,4..etc. However we can use polynomial of higher degrees to model such relationship, this is required if we want more reactivity. Therefore we can use a quadratic form, that is ax^2 + bx + c , where a,b and c are variables.
This is the quadratic least squares moving average (qlsma), a not so official term, but we'll stick with it because it still represent the aim of the filter quite well. In this indicator i make the calculations of the qlsma less troublesome, therefore one might understand how it would work, note that in general the coefficients of a polynomial regression model are found using matrix calculus.
The Indicator
A qlsma, unlike the classic lsma, will fit better to the price and will be more reactive, this is the advantage of using an higher degrees for its calculation, we can model more complex relationship.
lsma in green, qlsma in red, with both length = 200
However the over/under shoots are greater, i'll explain why in the next sections, but this is one of the drawbacks of using higher degrees.
The indicator allow to forecast future values, the ahead period of the forecast is determined by the forecast setting. The value for this setting should be lower than length, else the forecasts can easily over/under shoot which heavily damage the forecast. In order to get a view on how well the forecast is performing you can check the option "Show past predicted values".
Of course understanding the logic behind the forecast is important, in short regressions models best fit a certain curve to the data, this curve can be a line (linear regression), a parabola (quadratic regression) and so on, the type of curve is determined by the degree of the polynomial used, here 2, which is a parabola. Lets use a linear regression model as example :
ax + b where x is a linear sequence 1,2,3...and a/b are constants. Our goal is to find the values for a and b that minimize the sum of squares of the line with the dependent variable y, here the closing price, so our hypothesis is that :
closing price = ax + b + ε
where ε is white noise, a component that the model couldn't forecast. The forecast of the closing price 14 step ahead would be equal to :
closing price 14 step aheads = a(x+14) + b
Since x is a linear sequence we only need to sum it with the forecasting horizon period, the same is done here with :
a*(n+forecast)^2 + b*(n + forecast) + c
Note that the forecast proposed in the indicator is more for teaching purpose that anything else, this indicator can't possibly forecast future values, even on a meh rate.
Low lag filters have been used to provide noise free crosses with slow moving average, a bad practice in my opinion due to the ability low lag filters have to overshoot/undershoot, more interesting use cases might be to use the qlsma as input for other indicators.
On The Code
Some of you might know that i posted a "quadratic regression" indicator long ago, the original calculations was coming from a forum, but because the calculation was ugly as hell as well as extra inefficient (dogfood level) i had to do something about it, the name was also terribly misleading.
We can see in the code that we make heavy use of the variance and covariance, both estimated with :
VAR(x) = SMA(x^2) - SMA(x)^2
COV(x,y) = SMA(xy) - SMA(x)SMA(y)
Those elements are then combined, we can easily recognize the intercept element c , who don't change much from the classical lsma.
As Digital Filter
The frequency response of the qlsma is similar to the one of the lsma, those filters amplify certain frequencies in the passband, and have ripples in the stop band. There is something interesting about those filters, first using higher degrees allow to greater boost of the frequencies in the passband, which result in greater over/under shoots. Another funny thing is that the peak/valley of the ripples is equal the peak or valley in the ripples of another lsma of different degree.
The transient response of those filters, that is impulse response, step response...etc is related to the degree of the polynomial used, therefore lets denote a lsma of degree p : lsma(p) , the impulse response of lsma(p) is a polynomial of degree p, and the step response is simple a polynomial of order p+1.
This is why it was more interesting to estimate the qlsma using convolution, however we can no longer forecast future values.
Conclusion
I proposed a more usable quadratic least squares moving average, with more options, as well as a cleaner and more efficient code. The process of shrinking the original code is made easier when you know about the estimations of both variance and covariance.
I hope the proposed indicator/calculation is useful.
Thx for reading !
MAX TRENDS Spark 0.3.1.1This is a solid modification of Waves with extra volatility curves.
Very sophisticated for the day trading and forex swing.
XBT Contango Calculator v1.1
This indicator measures value of basis (or spread) of current Futures contracts compared to spot. The default settings are specifically for Bitmex XBTU19 and XBTZ19 futures contracts. These will need to be updated after expiration. Also, it seems that Tradingview does not keep charts of expired contracts. If anyone knows how to import data from previous expired contracts, please let me know. This historical data could be valuable for evaluating previous XBT futures curves.
Also, VERY important to understand is this indicator only works with Spot Bitcoin charts (XBTUSD, BTCUSD, etc). If you add this to any other asset chart, it would not be useful (unless you changed settings to evaluate a different Futures product).
Contango and Backwardation are important fundamental indicators to keep track of while trading Futures markets. For a better explanation, Ugly Old Goat had done several medium articles on this. Please check out link below for his latest article on the subject...
uglyoldgoat.com
Notes on chart above should explain most of what you need to know on to use this indicator. The zero line is the spot price on the chart, so a positive value means Futures are trading at a premium (or in Contango). You can set a value of extreme Contango which will give an alert as red background (default setting is +$500). Green background will appear when Futures are trading at a discount to spot (Backwardation).
Hope some people get some use out of this. This is my first attempt at coding anything, so any feedback would be greatly appreciated!
BTC Donations: 3CypEdvBcvVHbqzHUt1FDiUG53U7pYWviV
Moving AverageDisplay of simple moving average and exponential mobile average depending on period.
Simple moving average are for D, W, and M period.
Minutes and Hours periods display exponential curves.
Multi SMA EMA WMA HMA BB (4x3 MAs Bollinger Bands) Pro MTF - RRBMulti SMA EMA WMA HMA 4x3 Moving Averages with Bollinger Bands Pro MTF by RagingRocketBull 2018
Version 1.0
This indicator shows multiple MAs of any type SMA EMA WMA HMA etc with BB and MTF support, can show MAs as dynamically moving levels.
There are 4 MA groups + 1 BB group. You can assign any type/timeframe combo to a group, for example:
- EMAs 50,100,200 x H1, H4, D1, W1 (4 TFs x 3 MAs x 1 type)
- EMAs 8,13,21,55,100,200 x M15, H1 (2 TFs x 6 MAs x 1 type)
- D1 EMAs and SMAs 12,26,50,100,200,400 (1 TF x 6 MAs x 2 types)
- H1 WMAs 7,77,231; H4 HMAs 50,100,200; D1 EMAs 144,169,233; W1 SMAs 50,100,200 (4 TFs x 3 MAs x 4 types)
- +1 extra MA type/timeframe for BB
compile time: 25-30 sec
full redraw time after parameter change in UI: 3 sec
There are several versions: Simple, MTF, Pro MTF, Advanced MTF and Ultimate MTF. This is the Pro MTF version. The Differences are listed below. All versions have BB
- Simple: you have 2 groups of MAs that can be assigned any type (5+5)
- MTF: +2 custom Timeframes for each group (2x5 MTF)
- Pro MTF: +4 custom Timeframes for each group (4x3 MTF), MA levels and show max bars back options
- Advanced MTF: +2 extra MAs/group (4x5 MTF), custom Ticker/Symbol, backreferences for type, TF and MA lengths in UI
- Ultimate MTF: +individual settings for each MA, custom Ticker/Symbols
Features:
- 4x3 = 12 MAs of any type including Hull Moving Average (HMA)
- 4x MTF groups with step line smoothing
- BB +1 extra TF/type for BB MAs
- 12 MA levels with adjustable group offsets, indents and shift
- show max bars back
- you can show/hide both groups of MAs/levels and individual MAs
Notes:
1. based on 3EmaBB, uses plot*, barssince and security functions
2. you can't set certain constants from input due to Pinescript limitations - change the code as needed, recompile and use as a private version
3. Levels = trackprice implementation
4. Show Max Bars Back = show_last implementation
5. uses timeframe textbox instead of input resolution to allow for 120 240 and other custom TFs. Also supports TFs in hours: 2H or H2
6. swma has a fixed length = 4, alma and linreg have additional offset and smoothing params
7. Smoothing is applied by default for visual aesthetics on MTF. To use exact ma mtf values (lines with stair stepping) - disable it
MTF Notes:
- uses simple timeframe textbox instead of input resolution dropdown to allow for 120, 240 and other custom TFs, also supports timeframes in H: 2H, H2
- Groups that are not assigned a Custom TF will use Current Timeframe (0).
- MTF will work for any MA type assigned to the group
- MTF works both ways: you can display a higher TF MA/BB on a lower TF or a lower TF MA/BB on a higher TF.
- MTF MA values are normally aligned at the boundary of their native timeframe. This produces stair stepping when a higher TF MA is viewed on a lower TF.
Therefore X Y Point Density/Smoothing is applied by default on MA MTF for visual aesthetics. Set both to 0 to disable and see exact ma mtf values (lines with stair stepping and original mtf alignment).
- Smoothing is disabled for BB MTF bands because fill doesn't work with smoothed MAs after duplicate values are replaced with na.
- MTF MA Value fluctuation is possible on the current bar due to default security lookahead
Smoothing:
- X,Y == 0 - X,Y smoothing disabled (stair stepping on high TFs)
- X == 0, Y > 0 - X,Y smoothing applied to all TFs
- Y == 0, X > 0 - X smoothing applied to all TFs < deltaX_max_tf, Y smoothing disabled
- X > 0, Y > 0 - Y smoothing applied to all TFs, then X smoothing applied to all TFs < deltaX_max_tf
X Smoothing with Y == 0 - shows only every deltaX-th point starting from the first bar.
X Smoothing with Y > 0 - shows only every deltaX-th point starting from the last shown Y point, essentially filling huge gaps remaining after Y Smoothing with points and preserving the curve's general shape
X Smoothing on high TFs with already scarce points produces weird curve shapes, it works best only on high density lower TFs
Y Smoothing reduces points on all TFs, removes adjacent points with prices within deltaY, while preserving the smaller curve details.
A combination of X,Y produces the most accurate smoothing. Higher delta value - larger range, more points removed.
Show Max Bars Back:
- can't set plot show_last from input -> implemented using a timenow based range check
- you can't delete/modify history once plotted, so essentially it just sets a start point for plotting (from num_bars bars back) that works only in realtime mode (not in replay)
Levels:
You can plot current MA value using plot trackprice=true or by checking Show Price Line in Style. Problem is:
- you can only change color (not the dashed line style, width), have both ma + price line (not just the line), and it's full screen wide
- you can't set plot trackprice from input => implemented using plotshape/plotchar with fixed text labels serving as levels
- there's no other way of creating a dynamic level: hline, plot, offset - nothing else works.
- you can't plot a text var - all text strings must be constants, so you can't change the style, width and text labels without recompiling.
- from input you can only adjust offset, indent and shift for each level group, and change color
- the dot below each level line is the exact MA value. If you want just the line swap plotshape with plotchar, recompile and save as your private version, adjust Y shift.
To speed up redraw times: reduce last_bars to ~2000, recompile and use as your own private version
Pinescript is a rudimentary language (should be called Painscript instead) that can basically only plot data. You can't do much else. Please see the code for tips and hints.
Certain things just can't be done or require shady workarounds and weeks of testing trying to resolve weird node.js compiler errors.
Feel free to learn from/reuse/change the code as needed and use as your own private version. See comments in code. Good Luck!
Tunable SWMADissected the standard SWMA function and added options for user to change just about every part of it. Weights ,Lookback ,Source can all be changed in the settings.
Green is the standard SWMA, Using the Input value selected.(MAs/LRC/VWAP)
Red is the tuned SWMA, with the option of applying a final Output filter (MAs/LRC/VWAP). Uses 8 datapoints instead of 4 for the default.
Customization can really help expand upon the standard SWMA I find. Enjoy tuning to your hearts content
KT_Global Bond Yields by CountryGlobal Bond Yields Indicator Summary
The Global Bond Yields by Country indicator, developed for Trading View (Pine Script v5), provides a comprehensive tool for visualizing and analyzing government bond yields across multiple countries and maturities. Below are its key features:
Features
Country Selection: Choose from 20 countries, including the United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, and more, to display their respective bond yields.
Multiple Maturities: Supports 18 bond maturities ranging from 1 month to 40 years, allowing users to analyze short-term to long-term yield trends.
Customizable Display:
Toggle visibility for each maturity (1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, 5Y, 6Y, 7Y, 8Y, 9Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, 25Y, 30Y, 40Y) individually.
Option to show or hide all maturities with a single toggle for streamlined analysis.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread: Plots the difference between 10-year and 2-year bond yields, a key indicator of yield curve dynamics, with an option to enable/disable.
Zero Line Reference: Displays a dashed grey horizontal line at zero for clear visual reference.
Color-Coded Plots: Each maturity is plotted with a distinct color, ranging from lighter shades (short-term) to darker shades (long-term), for easy differentiation.
Country Label: Displays the selected country's name as a large, prominent label on the chart for quick identification.
Error Handling: Alerts users if an invalid country is selected, ensuring robust operation.
Data Integration: Fetches bond yield data from Trading View's database (e.g., TVC:US10Y) with support for ignoring invalid symbols to prevent errors.
This indicator is ideal for traders and analysts monitoring global fixed-income markets, yield curve shapes, and cross-country comparisons.
LRSlope - Linear Regression SlopeThis indicator attempts to predict the direction of the trend using least squares moving averages (LSMA).
The indicator's core purpose is to determine whether the price trajectory has a positive or negative slope and calculate directional changes. It also measures the strength of price momentum by calculating how strongly the slope.
The indicator calculates the slope of the curve for each bar and the EMA of these slopes for the specified period (Curve Length). It is consists of a histogram and two lines named "Average Slope"(white line) and "Simple" (green line).
The "Average Slope" is the simple moving average of the calculated EMA values.
" Simple " is SMA of calculated slopes.
The color of the histogram changes depending on the relative position of these two lines and zero line.
Simply put, the green bars of the histogram indicate an uptrend, blue bars indicate a horizontal or reverse movement, and red bars indicate a downtrend.
It is possible to see the strength of the momentum by the amount of change in the " Simple" (green line).
Elliott Wave [BigBeluga]🔵 OVERVIEW
Elliott Wave automatically finds and draws an Elliott-style 5-wave impulse and a dashed projection for a potential -(a)→(b)→(c) correction. It detects six sequential reversal points from rolling highs/lows — 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, (a) — validates their relative placement, and then renders the wave with labels and horizontal reference lines. If price invalidates the structure by closing back through the Wave-5 level inside a 100-bar window, the pattern is cleared (optionally kept as “broken”) while key dotted levels remain for context.
🔵 CONCEPTS
Reversal harvesting from extremes : The script scans highest/lowest values over a user-set Length and stores swing points with their bar indices.
Six-point validation : A pattern requires six pivots (1…5 and (a)). Their vertical/temporal order must satisfy Elliott-style constraints before drawing.
Impulse + projection : After confirming 1→5, the tool plots a curved polyline through the pivots and a dashed forward path from (a) toward (b) (midpoint of 5 and (a)) and back to (c).
Risk line (invalidator) : The Wave-5 price is tracked; a close back through it within 100 bars marks the structure as broken.
Minimal persistence : When broken, the wave drawing is removed to avoid noise, while dotted horizontals for waves 5 and 4 remain as reference.
🔵 FEATURES
Automatic pivot collection from rolling highs/lows (user-controlled Length ).
Wave labeling : Points 1–5 are printed; the last collected swing is marked b
. Projected i
& i
are shown with a dashed polyline.
Breaker line & cleanup : If price closes above Wave-5 (opposite for bears) within 100 bars, the pattern is removed; only dotted levels of 5 and 4 stay.
Styling controls :
Length (pivot sensitivity)
Text Size for labels (tiny/small/normal/large)
Wave color input
Show Broken toggle to keep invalidated patterns visible
Lightweight memory : Keeps a compact buffer of recent pivots/draws to stay responsive.
🔵 HOW TO USE
Set sensitivity : Increase Length on noisy charts for cleaner pivots; decrease to catch earlier/shorter structures.
Wait for confirmation : Once 1→5 is printed and (a) appears, use the Wave-5 line as your invalidation. A close back through it within ~100 bars removes the active wave (unless Show Broken is on).
Plan with the dashed path : The (a)→(b)→(c) projection offers a scenario for potential corrective movement and risk placement.
Work MTF : Identify cleaner waves on higher TFs; refine execution on lower TFs near the breaker or during the move toward (b).
Seek confluence : Align with structure (S/R), volume/Delta, or your trend filter to avoid counter-context trades.
🔵 CONCLUSION
Elliott Wave systematizes discretionary wave analysis: it detects and labels the 5-wave impulse, projects a plausible (a)-(b)-(c) path, and self-cleans on invalidation. With clear labels, dotted reference levels, and a practical breaker rule, it gives traders an objective framework for scenario planning, invalidation, and timing.
Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
Benford's Law Actual [Tagstrading]Benford’s Law Chart — First Digit Analysis of Percentage Price Drops
This script visualizes the distribution of the leading digit in the percentage change of price drops, and compares it to the theoretical distribution expected by Benford’s Law.
It helps traders, analysts, and quants to detect anomalies, unnatural behavior, or price manipulation in any asset or timeframe.
How to Use
Add to any chart or symbol (stocks, crypto, FX, etc.) and select the timeframe you wish to analyze.
Set the “Number of Bars to Analyze” input (default: 500) to control the length of the historical window.
The chart will display, for the latest window:
A blue line: the actual leading-digit distribution for percentage price changes between bars.
A red line: the expected distribution per Benford’s Law.
Labels below and above: digit markers and the expected (theoretical) percentages.
Summary panel on the right: frequency counts and actual vs. theoretical % for each digit.
Interpretation:
If your actual (blue) curve or digit counts are significantly different from the red Benford’s Law curve, it could indicate unnatural price action, fraud, bot activity, or structural anomalies.
Why is this useful for TradingView?
Financial forensics: Benford’s Law is a classic tool for detecting data manipulation and fraud in accounting. On charts, it can reveal if price movements are statistically “natural.”
Transparency and confidence: Helps communities audit markets, brokers, or exchanges for irregularities.
Adaptable: Works on any market, any timeframe.
What makes this script unique?
Focuses on % price changes, not raw prices.
This provides a fair comparison across assets, symbols, and timeframes.
Measures only the direction and magnitude of drops/rises — more suitable for detecting manipulation in active markets.
Clear and customizable visualization:
The Benford line, actual data, and summary are all visible and readable in one glance.
Optimized for speed and clarity (runs efficiently on all major charts).
How is it different from stg44’s Benford’s Law script?
This script analyzes the leading digit of percentage price changes (i.e., how much the price drops or rises in %),
while the original by stg44 analyzes the leading digit of price itself.
Results are less sensitive to price scale and more comparable across volatile and non-volatile assets.
The summary panel clearly shows ( ) for actual and for Benford theoretical values.
Full code is commented and open for the community.
Credits and Inspiration
This script was inspired by “Benford’s Law” by stg44:
Thanks to the TradingView community for sharing powerful visual ideas.
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By tags trading
Kent Directional Filter🧭 Kent Directional Filter
Author: GabrielAmadeusLau
Type: Filter
📖 What It Is
The Kent Directional Filter is a directionality-sensitive smoothing tool inspired by the Kent distribution, a probability model used to describe directional and elliptical shapes on a sphere. In this context, it's repurposed for analyzing the angular trajectory of price movements and smoothing them for actionable insights.
It’s ideal for:
Detecting directional bias with probabilistic weighting
Enhancing momentum or trend-following systems
Filtering non-linear price action
🔬 How It Works
Price Angle Estimation:
Computes a rough angular shift in price using atan(src - src ) to estimate direction.
Kent Distribution Weighting:
κ (kappa) controls concentration strength (how sharply it prefers a direction).
β (beta) controls ellipticity (bias toward curved vs. linear moves).
These parameters influence how strongly the indicator favors movements at ~45° angles, simulating a directional “lens.”
Smoothing:
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) is applied over the raw directional probabilities to reduce noise and highlight the underlying trend signal.
⚙️ Inputs
Source: Price series used for angle calculation (default: close)
Smoothing Length: Window size for the moving average
Pi Divisor: Pi / 4 would be 45 degrees, you can change the 4 to 3, 2, etc.
Kappa (κ): Controls how focused the directionality is (higher = sharper filter)
Beta (β): Adds curvature sensitivity; higher values accentuate asymmetrical moves
🧠 Tips for Best Results
Use κ = 1–2 for moderate directional filtering, and β = 0.3–0.7 for smooth elliptical bias.
Combine with volume-based indicators to confirm breakout strength.
Works best in higher timeframes (1h–1D) to capture macro directional structure.
I might revisit this.
HMA Trend Line (Croc Signal Line)HMA Trend Line (Croc Signal Line) — The Ultimate Hull Moving Average Trend Indicator
Full English description here:
What is the HMA Trend Line (Croc Signal Line)?
The HMA Trend Line (Croc Signal Line) is a powerful, adaptive trend indicator for TradingView, based on the Hull Moving Average (HMA). This indicator is designed to help traders identify real market trends with less lag and reduced noise compared to traditional moving averages like SMA (Simple Moving Average) and EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
Why use the HMA Trend Line?
+ Faster Trend Detection: The Hull Moving Average (HMA) responds more quickly to price action, giving you earlier buy and sell signals.
+ Smoother and Cleaner: It provides a visually clean trend line that avoids the choppiness of classic EMAs and SMAs.
+ Reduced Lag: The HMA Trend Line follows the market closer, helping you avoid late entries or exits and spot trend reversals sooner.
+ Dynamic Support and Resistance: Use the line as a dynamic support or resistance to manage trades and identify pullbacks or breakouts.
What does “Croc Signal Line” mean?
The “Croc” in Croc Signal Line stands for:
+ Clean
+ Responsive
+ Optimized
+ Curve
This highlights the unique advantage of this indicator: a curve that is both fast-reacting and smooth, helping traders focus on real trends and filter out market noise.
How does the Hull Moving Average (HMA) work?
The HMA was developed by Alan Hull and uses weighted moving averages and a unique calculation to deliver both responsiveness and smoothness. Unlike standard moving averages, the HMA reacts faster to new price moves and avoids false signals in ranging or volatile markets.
How to use the HMA Trend Line (Croc Signal Line) on TradingView?
+ Watch for price crossing above the trend line for potential bullish signals, and below for bearish signals.
+ Use on any timeframe: from 1-minute scalping to daily, weekly, or even monthly charts.
+ Works with all asset classes: Forex, stocks, indices, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and futures.
+ Combine with other indicators (like Stochastics, RSI, or volume) for confirmation and to build your unique trading strategy.
+ Adjust the Signal Line Period for your market and style: shorter periods for faster markets, longer for smoother trends.
Who should use this indicator?
+ Day traders, swing traders, and long-term investors looking for reliable, actionable trend signals.
+ Anyone seeking a cleaner, more responsive alternative to the classic moving averages.
+ Traders who want a simple, visually clear way to filter out market noise and see real price direction.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is for educational and study purposes only. Please perform your own backtesting and analysis before using it in live trading. This script does not constitute financial advice. Use at your own risk.
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TZanalyserTZanalyser (Trend Zone Monitor With Trend Strength, Volume Focus And -Events Markers)
Before I used TrendZones to manage my portfolio I used Fibonacci Zone Oscillator as my favorite in the sub panel, accompanied with another subpanel indicator which I never published called IncliValue and also REVE Cohorts.
TZanalyser inherits Ideas and code from all three of them: The visual and the idea of using a channel as the basis for an oscillator depicted as a histogram, is taken from the FibZone Oscillator. The idea of providing a number to evaluate the trend is taken from IncliValue. The idea to create a horizontal line which indicates high and low volume focus completed with markers for volume events, is taken from REVE-cohorts.
These ideas are combined in one sleek visual called TZanalyser. TZ stand for TrendZones, because the histogram is based on it.
The histogram.
Depicted is the distance of the price from COG as percent. The distance between Upper Curve and Lower Curve is used as 100%. The values may reach between 300 and -300. The colors indicate in which zone the candle lives, blue in the blue zone, green in the green zone etc. Despite the absence of a gray zone, there are gray bars. These depict candles that wrap around COG. Because hl2 is used as price, some gray bars point up and others down. The orange and red bars point down because the orange and red downtrend zones are below COG.
Use of the histogram.
Sometimes I need to create a list of stocks which are in uptrend in monthly, weekly and daily charts from the stocks I follow in my universe. This job is done fast and easy by looking at the last bar of the histogram. The histogram also gives a quick evaluation of how the stock fared in the past.
The number.
Suppose I need to allocate some money to another stock, selected a few, looked into news and gurus and they look equally good. Then it is nice to be able to find out which has the best charts. Which one has the strongest uptrend. For this purpose this number can be consulted, because it indicates somehow the strength of the trend. It is an integer between 20 and -20, the closer to 20 the stronger the uptrend, closer to -20 indicates a stronger downtrend. The color of the background is the same as the last column of the histogram.
Volume focus and events
The horizontal lines depict volume focus, the line below the focus that comes with the uptrend columns pointing up, the one above the focus for the downtrend columns pointing down. Thes line have tree colors: maroon for high volume focus, green for normal volume and gray for low volume situations. Between the lines and the histogram triangles appear at volume events, a green triangle when the candle comes with high volume, i.e. 120-200 percent of normal, maroon when extreme volume, i.e. more than 200 percent of normal.
The direction of these triangles is that of the histogram, i.e. when the price is higher, direction is up and vice versa.
Take care and have fun.
Ultimate Regression Channel v5.0 [WhiteStone_Ibrahim]Ultimate Regression Channel v5.0: Comprehensive User Guide
This indicator is designed to visualize the current trend, potential support/resistance levels, and market volatility through a statistical analysis of price action. At its core, it plots a regression line (a trend line) based on prices over a specific period and adds channels based on standard deviation around this line.
1. Core Features and Settings
Length Mode:
Numerical (Manual): You define the number of bars to be used for the regression channel calculation. You can use lower values (e.g., 50-100) for short-term analysis and higher values (e.g., 200-300) to identify long-term trends.
Automatic (Based on Market Structure): This mode automatically draws the channel starting from the highest high or lowest low that has formed within the Auto Scan Period. This allows the indicator to adapt itself to significant market turning points (swing points), which is highly useful.
Regression Model:
Linear: Calculates the trend as a straight line. It generally works well in stable, short-to-medium-term trends.
Logarithmic: Calculates the trend as a curved line. It more accurately reflects price action, especially on long-term charts or for assets that experience exponential growth/decline (like cryptocurrencies or growth stocks).
Channel Widths:
These settings determine how far from the central trend line (in terms of standard deviations) the channels will be drawn.
The 0 (Inner), 1 (Middle), and 2 (Outer) channels represent the "normal" range of price movement and the "extreme" zones. Statistically, about 95% of all price action occurs within the outer channels (2nd standard deviation).
2. Visual Extras and Their Interpretation
Breakout Style:
This feature alerts you when the price closes above the uppermost channel (Channel 2) with a green arrow/background or below the lowermost channel with a red arrow/background.
This is a very important signal. A breakout can signify that the current trend is strengthening and likely to continue (a breakout/trend-following strategy) or that the market has become overextended and may be due for a reversal (an exhaustion/top-bottom signal). It is critical to confirm this signal with other indicators (e.g., RSI, Volume).
Info Label:
This provides an at-a-glance summary of the channel on the right side of the chart:
Trend Status: Identifies the trend as "Uptrend," "Downtrend," or "Sideways" based on the slope of the centerline. The Horizontal Threshold setting allows you to filter out noise by treating very small slopes as "Sideways."
Regression Model and Length: Shows your current settings.
Trend Slope: A numerical value representing how steep or weak the trend is.
Channel Width: Shows the price difference between the outermost channels. This is a measure of current volatility. A widening channel indicates increasing volatility, while a narrowing one indicates decreasing volatility.
3. What Users Should Pay Attention To & Best Practices
Define Your Strategy: Mean Reversion or Breakout?
Mean Reversion: If the market is in a ranging or gently trending phase, the price will tend to revert to the centerline after hitting the outer channels (overbought/oversold zones). In this case, the outer channels can be considered opportunities to sell (upper channel) or buy (lower channel).
Breakout: If a strong trend is in place, a price close beyond an outer channel can be a sign that the trend is accelerating. In this scenario, one might consider taking a position in the direction of the breakout. Correctly analyzing the current market state (ranging vs. trending) is key to deciding which strategy to employ.
Don't Use It in Isolation: No indicator is a holy grail. Use the Regression Channel in conjunction with other tools. Confirm signals with RSI divergences for overbought/oversold conditions, Moving Averages for the overall trend direction, or Volume indicators to confirm the strength of a breakout.
Choose the Right Model: On shorter-term charts (e.g., 1-hour, 4-hour), the Linear model is often sufficient. However, on long-term charts like the daily, weekly, or monthly, the Logarithmic model will provide much more accurate results, especially for assets with parabolic movements.
The Power of Automatic Mode: The Automatic length mode is often the most practical choice because it finds the most logical starting point for you. It saves you the trouble of adjusting settings, especially when analyzing different assets or timeframes.
Use the Alerts: If you don't want to miss the moment the price touches a key channel line, set up an alert from the Alert Settings section for your desired line (e.g., only the "Outer Channels"). This helps you catch opportunities even when you are not in front of the screen.
Money NoodleMoney Noodle Indicator - How It Works
The Money Noodle indicator is a trend-following and support/resistance tool that combines multiple exponential moving averages (EMAs) with dynamic volatility-based bands to create a comprehensive trading system.
Core Components
1. Triple EMA System ("The Noodles")
Fast EMA (12): Most responsive to price changes, shows short-term momentum
Medium EMA (21): Intermediate trend direction
Slow EMA (35): Main trend line that acts as the central reference point
The "noodle" effect comes from how these three EMAs weave around each other and the price action, creating curved, flowing lines that resemble noodles.
2. Dynamic Volatility Bands
Upper Band: Main EMA + (ATR × Band Multiplier)
Lower Band: Main EMA - (ATR × Band Multiplier)
Uses a 20-period ATR (Average True Range) to measure market volatility
Band width automatically adjusts - wider during volatile periods, tighter during consolidation
How It Functions
Trend Identification:
When all three EMAs are aligned (fast > medium > slow), it indicates a strong uptrend
When EMAs are inverted (fast < medium < slow), it signals a downtrend
EMA crossovers provide early trend change signals
Support & Resistance:
The bands act as dynamic support and resistance levels
Price tends to bounce off the bands during trending markets
Band breaks often signal strong momentum moves or trend changes
Volatility Assessment:
Band width indicates market volatility - wider bands = higher volatility
ATR-based calculation makes the bands adaptive to current market conditions
The 0.0125 multiplier provides optimal sensitivity for most timeframes
Trading Applications
Entry Signals:
Buy when price bounces off the lower band with EMA alignment
Sell when price bounces off the upper band against the trend
Breakout trades when price decisively breaks through bands
Trend Following:
Use the main EMA (35) as your trend filter
Trade in the direction of EMA alignment
The "noodles" help identify trend strength - tighter = stronger trend
Risk Management:
Bands provide natural stop-loss levels
Band width helps size positions (wider bands = smaller size due to higher volatility)
The indicator works best on daily timeframes and provides a visual, intuitive way to read market structure, trend direction, and volatility all in one tool.
Momentum ScopeOverview
Momentum Scope is a Pine Script™ v6 study that renders a –1 to +1 momentum heatmap across up to 32 lookback periods in its own pane. Using an Augmented Relative Momentum Index (ARMI) and color shading, it highlights where momentum strengthens, weakens, or stays flat over time—across any asset and timeframe.
Key Features
Full-Spectrum Momentum Map : Computes ARMI for 1–32 lookbacks, indexed from –1 (strong bearish) to +1 (strong bullish).
Flexible Scale Gradation : Choose Linear or Exponential spacing, with adjustable expansion ratio and maximum depth.
Trending Bias Control : Apply a contrast-style curve transform to emphasize trending vs. mean-reverting behavior.
Duotone & Tritone Palettes : Select between two vivid color styles, with user-definable hues for bearish, bullish, and neutral momentum.
Compact, Overlay-Free Display : Renders solely in its own pane—keeping your price chart clean.
Inputs & Customization
Scale Gradation : Linear or Exponential spacing of intervals
Scale Expansion : Ratio governing step-size between successive lookbacks
Scale Maximum : Maximum lookback period (and highest interval)
Trending Bias : Curve-transform bias to tilt the –1 … +1 grid
Color Style : Duotone or Tritone rendering modes
Reducing / Increasing / Neutral Colors : Pick your own hues for bearish, bullish, and flat zones
How to Use
Add to Chart : Apply “Momentum Scope” as a separate indicator.
Adjust Scale : For exponential spacing, switch your indicator Y-axis to Logarithmic .
Set Bias & Colors : Tweak Trending Bias and choose a palette that stands out on your layout.
Interpret the Heatmap :
Red tones = weakening/bearish momentum
Green tones = strengthening/bullish momentum
Neutral hues = indecision or flat momentum
Copyright © 2025 MVPMC. Licensed under MIT. For full license see opensource.org
Market Sell-Off GaugeOVERVIEW
The Market Sell‑Off Gauge identifies high‑conviction, risk‑off entry opportunities by detecting broad market sell‑off behavior and rising stablecoin dominance, then confirming risk‑off sentiment via NDX weakness, VIX spikes, and elevated volume. It uses fuzzy logic and sigmoid scaling to convert raw signals into a smooth, bounded metric.
FEATURES
Sell‑Off Detection - calculates percentage drops in the primary asset over a user‑defined lookback.
Stablecoin Dominance Surge - tracks combined USDT/USDC dominance rises as a proxy for on‑chain “flight to safety.”
Macro Confirmation
NDX Weakness (NASDAQ‑100)
VIX Spikes (CBOE Volatility Index)
Elevated Volume on declining bars
Fuzzy Logic & Scaling - component values feed into a fuzzy‑logic membership scor and are passed through a sigmoid compressor (–1 to +1). Weighted aggregation derives the final result of the gauge (or metric).
VISUALISATION
Continuous line plot - Smoothed metric (–1 to +1), colored cold‑to‑warm.
Entry circles - Highlighted when all conditions (fuzzy or crisp) are met after the time offset.
Time‑Offset marker - Vertical line/label showing the user‑specified “start” bar.
Component table - Displays real‑time % changes & volume multiples in the lower right of the indicator.
USAGE
Asset drop % - The threshold percent decline to register a sell‑off.
Stables rise % - The threshold percent increase in stablecoin dominance to qualify as a “flight to safety.”
NDX drop % - The threshold percent decline in the NASDAQ‑100 for macro confirmation.
VIX rise % - The threshold percent increase in VIX. Contributes to risk‑off validation.
Volume Multiplier - Defines how many times above SMA volume must rise to confirm conviction.
Lookback Period - Controls the number of bars over which % changes are measured.
Time Offset - Point in time beyond which bars to “fade” historical signals, enables focus on recent data only.
Fuzzy Logic Settings - Enables fuzzy scoring and set membership threshold & sensitivity.
Weights - allows for adjusting the relative importance of each component (Asset, Stables, NDX, VIX, Volume).
Sigmoid Steepness (k) - Controls curve steepness for compression (0.1 = very flat → 5.0 = very sharp S‑curve).
Chart & settings
Best applied on 4H or Daily BTCUSD (or similar) charts to capture meaningful sell‑off events.
Combine with broader trend filters (e.g., moving averages) for trend‑aligned entries.
Adjust Sigmoid Steepness and Membership Sensitivity to fine‑tune signal crispness vs. smoothness. Refer to tooltips.
Disclaimer
This indicator is intended for educational purposes only. Always perform your own due diligence before making financial decisions.
Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory🌌 Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory (AHFT) - Revolutionary Quantum Market Analysis
Where Theoretical Physics Meets Trading Reality
A Groundbreaking Synthesis of Differential Geometry, Quantum Field Theory, and Market Dynamics
🔬 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION - THE MATHEMATICS OF MARKET REALITY
The Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory represents an unprecedented fusion of advanced mathematical physics with practical market analysis. This isn't merely another indicator repackaging old concepts - it's a fundamentally new lens through which to view and understand market structure .
1. HOLONOMY GROUPS (Differential Geometry)
In differential geometry, holonomy measures how vectors change when parallel transported around closed loops in curved space. Applied to markets:
Mathematical Formula:
H = P exp(∮_C A_μ dx^μ)
Where:
P = Path ordering operator
A_μ = Market connection (price-volume gauge field)
C = Closed price path
Market Implementation:
The holonomy calculation measures how price "remembers" its journey through market space. When price returns to a previous level, the holonomy captures what has changed in the market's internal geometry. This reveals:
Hidden curvature in the market manifold
Topological obstructions to arbitrage
Geometric phase accumulated during price cycles
2. ANOMALY DETECTION (Quantum Field Theory)
Drawing from the Adler-Bell-Jackiw anomaly in quantum field theory:
Mathematical Formula:
∂_μ j^μ = (e²/16π²)F_μν F̃^μν
Where:
j^μ = Market current (order flow)
F_μν = Field strength tensor (volatility structure)
F̃^μν = Dual field strength
Market Application:
Anomalies represent symmetry breaking in market structure - moments when normal patterns fail and extraordinary opportunities arise. The system detects:
Spontaneous symmetry breaking (trend reversals)
Vacuum fluctuations (volatility clusters)
Non-perturbative effects (market crashes/melt-ups)
3. GAUGE THEORY (Theoretical Physics)
Markets exhibit gauge invariance - the fundamental physics remains unchanged under certain transformations:
Mathematical Formula:
A'_μ = A_μ + ∂_μΛ
This ensures our signals are gauge-invariant observables , immune to arbitrary market "coordinate changes" like gaps or reference point shifts.
4. TOPOLOGICAL DATA ANALYSIS
Using persistent homology and Morse theory:
Mathematical Formula:
β_k = dim(H_k(X))
Where β_k are the Betti numbers describing topological features that persist across scales.
🎯 REVOLUTIONARY SIGNAL CONFIGURATION
Signal Sensitivity (0.5-12.0, default 2.5)
Controls the responsiveness of holonomy field calculations to market conditions. This parameter directly affects the threshold for detecting quantum phase transitions in price action.
Optimization by Timeframe:
Scalping (1-5min): 1.5-3.0 for rapid signal generation
Day Trading (15min-1H): 2.5-5.0 for balanced sensitivity
Swing Trading (4H-1D): 5.0-8.0 for high-quality signals only
Score Amplifier (10-200, default 50)
Scales the raw holonomy field strength to produce meaningful signal values. Higher values amplify weak signals in low-volatility environments.
Signal Confirmation Toggle
When enabled, enforces additional technical filters (EMA and RSI alignment) to reduce false positives. Essential for conservative strategies.
Minimum Bars Between Signals (1-20, default 5)
Prevents overtrading by enforcing quantum decoherence time between signals. Higher values reduce whipsaws in choppy markets.
👑 ELITE EXECUTION SYSTEM
Execution Modes:
Conservative Mode:
Stricter signal criteria
Higher quality thresholds
Ideal for stable market conditions
Adaptive Mode:
Self-adjusting parameters
Balances signal frequency with quality
Recommended for most traders
Aggressive Mode:
Maximum signal sensitivity
Captures rapid market moves
Best for experienced traders in volatile conditions
Dynamic Position Sizing:
When enabled, the system scales position size based on:
Holonomy field strength
Current volatility regime
Recent performance metrics
Advanced Exit Management:
Implements trailing stops based on ATR and signal strength, with mode-specific multipliers for optimal profit capture.
🧠 ADAPTIVE INTELLIGENCE ENGINE
Self-Learning System:
The strategy analyzes recent trade outcomes and adjusts:
Risk multipliers based on win/loss ratios
Signal weights according to performance
Market regime detection for environmental adaptation
Learning Speed (0.05-0.3):
Controls adaptation rate. Higher values = faster learning but potentially unstable. Lower values = stable but slower adaptation.
Performance Window (20-100 trades):
Number of recent trades analyzed for adaptation. Longer windows provide stability, shorter windows increase responsiveness.
🎨 REVOLUTIONARY VISUAL SYSTEM
1. Holonomy Field Visualization
What it shows: Multi-layer quantum field bands representing market resonance zones
How to interpret:
Blue/Purple bands = Primary holonomy field (strongest resonance)
Band width = Field strength and volatility
Price within bands = Normal quantum state
Price breaking bands = Quantum phase transition
Trading application: Trade reversals at band extremes, breakouts on band violations with strong signals.
2. Quantum Portals
What they show: Entry signals with recursive depth patterns indicating momentum strength
How to interpret:
Upward triangles with portals = Long entry signals
Downward triangles with portals = Short entry signals
Portal depth = Signal strength and expected momentum
Color intensity = Probability of success
Trading application: Enter on portal appearance, with size proportional to portal depth.
3. Field Resonance Bands
What they show: Fibonacci-based harmonic price zones where quantum resonance occurs
How to interpret:
Dotted circles = Minor resonance levels
Solid circles = Major resonance levels
Color coding = Resonance strength
Trading application: Use as dynamic support/resistance, expect reactions at resonance zones.
4. Anomaly Detection Grid
What it shows: Fractal-based support/resistance with anomaly strength calculations
How to interpret:
Triple-layer lines = Major fractal levels with high anomaly probability
Labels show: Period (H8-H55), Price, and Anomaly strength (φ)
⚡ symbol = Extreme anomaly detected
● symbol = Strong anomaly
○ symbol = Normal conditions
Trading application: Expect major moves when price approaches high anomaly levels. Use for precise entry/exit timing.
5. Phase Space Flow
What it shows: Background heatmap revealing market topology and energy
How to interpret:
Dark background = Low market energy, range-bound
Purple glow = Building energy, trend developing
Bright intensity = High energy, strong directional move
Trading application: Trade aggressively in bright phases, reduce activity in dark phases.
📊 PROFESSIONAL DASHBOARD METRICS
Holonomy Field Strength (-100 to +100)
What it measures: The Wilson loop integral around price paths
>70: Strong positive curvature (bullish vortex)
<-70: Strong negative curvature (bearish collapse)
Near 0: Flat connection (range-bound)
Anomaly Level (0-100%)
What it measures: Quantum vacuum expectation deviation
>70%: Major anomaly (phase transition imminent)
30-70%: Moderate anomaly (elevated volatility)
<30%: Normal quantum fluctuations
Quantum State (-1, 0, +1)
What it measures: Market wave function collapse
+1: Bullish eigenstate |↑⟩
0: Superposition (uncertain)
-1: Bearish eigenstate |↓⟩
Signal Quality Ratings
LEGENDARY: All quantum fields aligned, maximum probability
EXCEPTIONAL: Strong holonomy with anomaly confirmation
STRONG: Good field strength, moderate anomaly
MODERATE: Decent signals, some uncertainty
WEAK: Minimal edge, high quantum noise
Performance Metrics
Win Rate: Rolling performance with emoji indicators
Daily P&L: Real-time profit tracking
Adaptive Risk: Current risk multiplier status
Market Regime: Bull/Bear classification
🏆 WHY THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING
Traditional technical analysis operates on 100-year-old principles - moving averages, support/resistance, and pattern recognition. These work because many traders use them, creating self-fulfilling prophecies.
AHFT transcends this limitation by analyzing markets through the lens of fundamental physics:
Markets have geometry - The holonomy calculations reveal this hidden structure
Price has memory - The geometric phase captures path-dependent effects
Anomalies are predictable - Quantum field theory identifies symmetry breaking
Everything is connected - Gauge theory unifies disparate market phenomena
This isn't just a new indicator - it's a new way of thinking about markets . Just as Einstein's relativity revolutionized physics beyond Newton's mechanics, AHFT revolutionizes technical analysis beyond traditional methods.
🔧 OPTIMAL SETTINGS FOR MNQ 10-MINUTE
For the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 on 10-minute timeframe:
Signal Sensitivity: 2.5-3.5
Score Amplifier: 50-70
Execution Mode: Adaptive
Min Bars Between: 3-5
Theme: Quantum Nebula or Dark Matter
💭 THE JOURNEY - FROM IMPOSSIBLE THEORY TO TRADING REALITY
Creating AHFT was a mathematical odyssey that pushed the boundaries of what's possible in Pine Script. The journey began with a seemingly impossible question: Could the profound mathematical structures of theoretical physics be translated into practical trading tools?
The Theoretical Challenge:
Months were spent diving deep into differential geometry textbooks, studying the works of Chern, Simons, and Witten. The mathematics of holonomy groups and gauge theory had never been applied to financial markets. Translating abstract mathematical concepts like parallel transport and fiber bundles into discrete price calculations required novel approaches and countless failed attempts.
The Computational Nightmare:
Pine Script wasn't designed for quantum field theory calculations. Implementing the Wilson loop integral, managing complex array structures for anomaly detection, and maintaining computational efficiency while calculating geometric phases pushed the language to its limits. There were moments when the entire project seemed impossible - the script would timeout, produce nonsensical results, or simply refuse to compile.
The Breakthrough Moments:
After countless sleepless nights and thousands of lines of code, breakthrough came through elegant simplifications. The realization that market anomalies follow patterns similar to quantum vacuum fluctuations led to the revolutionary anomaly detection system. The discovery that price paths exhibit holonomic memory unlocked the geometric phase calculations.
The Visual Revolution:
Creating visualizations that could represent 4-dimensional quantum fields on a 2D chart required innovative approaches. The multi-layer holonomy field, recursive quantum portals, and phase space flow representations went through dozens of iterations before achieving the perfect balance of beauty and functionality.
The Balancing Act:
Perhaps the greatest challenge was maintaining mathematical rigor while ensuring practical trading utility. Every formula had to be both theoretically sound and computationally efficient. Every visual had to be both aesthetically pleasing and information-rich.
The result is more than a strategy - it's a synthesis of pure mathematics and market reality that reveals the hidden order within apparent chaos.
📚 INTEGRATED DOCUMENTATION
Once applied to your chart, AHFT includes comprehensive tooltips on every input parameter. The source code contains detailed explanations of the mathematical theory, practical applications, and optimization guidelines. This published description provides the overview - the indicator itself is a complete educational resource.
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER
While AHFT employs advanced mathematical models derived from theoretical physics, markets remain inherently unpredictable. No mathematical model, regardless of sophistication, can guarantee future results. This strategy uses realistic commission ($0.62 per contract) and slippage (1 tick) in all calculations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use appropriate risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
🌟 CONCLUSION
The Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory represents a quantum leap in technical analysis - literally. By applying the profound insights of differential geometry, quantum field theory, and gauge theory to market analysis, AHFT reveals structure and opportunities invisible to traditional methods.
From the holonomy calculations that capture market memory to the anomaly detection that identifies phase transitions, from the adaptive intelligence that learns and evolves to the stunning visualizations that make the invisible visible, every component works in mathematical harmony.
This is more than a trading strategy. It's a new lens through which to view market reality.
Trade with the precision of physics. Trade with the power of mathematics. Trade with AHFT.
I hope this serves as a good replacement for Quantum Edge Pro - Adaptive AI until I'm able to fix it.
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Forex Session + Volume Profile [RunRox]📊 Forex Session + Volume Profile is built especially for traders who work with intra-session liquidity concepts or any strategy that needs a clear visual of trading sessions and the liquidity inside them.
Our team created this indicator to give you better session visibility, flexible session styling, and extra tools that help you navigate the market more easily.
📌 Features:
6 fully customizable sessions
Kill Zone (the high-impact trading window)
Volume Profile for each session
POC / VAL / VAH / LVN levels (Point of Control, Value Area Low, Value Area High, Low Volume Node)
PDH / PDL levels (Previous Day High / Low)
PWH / PWL levels (Previous Week High / Low)
NYM level (New York Market level)
Active sessions table
5 style options for each session
All of this gives you the flexibility to set up exactly the layout you need for your trading. Below, you’ll find a more detailed look at each feature.
🗓️ 6 CUSTOMIZABLE SESSION
The indicator includes six sessions that you can fully customize to fit your needs—everything from naming each session and choosing line colors to adjusting opacity, showing the volume profile, or even turning off a session entirely if you don’t need it.
Plus, you can pick different display styles for each session. As shown in the screenshot below, there are five style options you can apply individually to every session.
5 Style Options for Sessions
BOX
AREA
ZONES
LINES
CURVED
These styles can be customized for each session individually to help you highlight the sessions you care about on your chart. Example below
📢 VOLUME PROFILE
We’ve also integrated a Volume Profile into the indicator to pinpoint important levels on the chart. On top of that, we’ve added extra volume-based levels. Below, you’ll find the settings and a visual demo of how it appears on your chart.
To identify optimal entry points, you can use the following key reference levels:
POC (Point of Control)
VAL (Value Area Low)
VAH (Value Area High)
LVN (Low Volume Node)
You can also customize colors and line styles, or hide any levels you don’t need on your chart.
📐 ADDITIONAL LEVELS
You can display the following levels on your chart:
NYM (New York Market)
PDH (Previous Day High)
PDL (Previous Day Low)
PWH (Previous Week High)
PWL (Previous Week Low)
All of these are fully customizable with color selection and the option to extend lines into the next period.
💹 ACTIVE SESSION TABLE
The active sessions table helps you quickly identify the trading times for the sessions you care about. It’s fully customizable, with options to choose border and background colors for the table itself.
🟠 USAGE
This indicator is highly versatile: use it to simply mark trading sessions on your chart, set up the Kill Zone at your chosen time, or identify the context of the previous session by its most traded range levels. All of this makes the indicator an invaluable tool for any trader!
3M-10Y Yield Spread3M-10Y Yield Spread Indicator Description
What It Is:
This indicator calculates the difference (spread) between the 3-month and 10-year US Treasury yields, plotted as a line with a zero reference. The background turns red when the spread inverts (falls below zero), signaling when the 3-month yield exceeds the 10-year yield.
What It Helps Understand:
Economic Health: An inverted yield curve (spread < 0) often predicts recessions, as it reflects market expectations of future economic slowdown, typically preceding downturns by 6-18 months.
Fed Policy Impact: Fed rate hikes can push short-term yields (like the 3-month) higher, potentially causing inversion if long-term yields (10-year) don’t rise as much due to growth concerns. Conversely, Fed rate cuts can lower short-term yields, steepening the curve (spread > 0), signaling economic stimulus or recovery expectations.
OBVX Conviction Bias🧮 The OBVX Conviction Bias overlay tracks the flow of directional volume using the classic On-Balance Volume calculation, then filters it through a layered moving average system to expose crowd commitment , pressure transitions , and momentum fatigue . The tool applies two smoothed averages to the OBV line—a fast curve and a longer-term baseline scaled using Euler’s constant (2.718)—and visualizes their relationship using a color-coded crossover ribbon and pressure fills. When used correctly, it reveals whether a move is being supported by meaningful volume, or whether the crowd is starting to disengage.
🚦 The core signal compares OBV to its fast moving average. When OBV climbs above the short average, it fills green—suggesting real directional effort. When OBV sinks below, the fill turns maroon—flagging fading conviction or pullback potential. A second fill between the short and long OBV moving averages captures the broader trend of volume intention. If the short is above the long, this space fills greenish, showing constructive pressure. If it flips, the fill fades red, signaling crowd hesitation, rotation, or early exhaustion.
⚖️ All smoothing is user-selectable, defaulting to VWMA for effort-sensitive structure. The long-term average is auto-scaled using the natural exponential multiplier (2.718), offering rhythm that reflects the curve of participation. OBVX Conviction Bias isn’t trying to predict—it’s trying to show you where the crowd is leaning , and whether that lean is gaining traction or losing strength.
🧐 Ideal Use-Cases:
• Detect divergence between volume flow and price action
• Confirm breakout validity with volume alignment
• Fade breakouts where OBV fails to follow through
• Time pullback entries when OBV pressure resumes in trend direction
🍷 Recommended Pairings:
• ZVOL to measure whether volume is statistically significant or just noise (as shown)
• RVOL Effort Matrix to validate crowd effort by tier and structure zone
• SUPeR TReND 2.718 and/or MA Ribbons for directional confluence
• ATR Turbulence to track volatility-phase alignment with volume intention
