Adaptive Momentum Reversion StrategyThe Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy: An Empirical Approach to Market Behavior
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy seeks to capitalize on market price dynamics by combining concepts from momentum and mean reversion theories. This hybrid approach leverages a Rate of Change (ROC) indicator along with Bollinger Bands to identify overbought and oversold conditions, triggering trades based on the crossing of specific thresholds. The strategy aims to detect momentum shifts and exploit price reversions to their mean.
Theoretical Framework
Momentum and Mean Reversion: Momentum trading assumes that assets with a recent history of strong performance will continue in that direction, while mean reversion suggests that assets tend to return to their historical average over time (Fama & French, 1988; Poterba & Summers, 1988). This strategy incorporates elements of both, looking for periods when momentum is either overextended (and likely to revert) or when the asset’s price is temporarily underpriced relative to its historical trend.
Rate of Change (ROC): The ROC is a straightforward momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price over a specified period (Wilder, 1978). The strategy calculates the ROC over a 2-period window, making it responsive to short-term price changes. By using ROC, the strategy aims to detect price acceleration and deceleration.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are used to identify volatility and potential price extremes, often signaling overbought or oversold conditions. The bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bounds that adjust dynamically with price volatility (Bollinger, 2002).
The strategy employs two sets of Bollinger Bands: one for short-term volatility (lower band) and another for longer-term trends (upper band), with different lengths and standard deviation multipliers.
Strategy Construction
Indicator Inputs:
ROC Period: The rate of change is computed over a 2-period window, which provides sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.
Bollinger Bands:
Lower Band: Calculated with a 18-period length and a standard deviation of 1.7.
Upper Band: Calculated with a 21-period length and a standard deviation of 2.1.
Calculations:
ROC Calculation: The ROC is computed by comparing the current close price to the close price from rocPeriod days ago, expressing it as a percentage.
Bollinger Bands: The strategy calculates both upper and lower Bollinger Bands around the ROC, using a simple moving average as the central basis. The lower Bollinger Band is used as a reference for identifying potential long entry points when the ROC crosses above it, while the upper Bollinger Band serves as a reference for exits, when the ROC crosses below it.
Trading Conditions:
Long Entry: A long position is initiated when the ROC crosses above the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential shift from a period of low momentum to an increase in price movement.
Exit Condition: A position is closed when the ROC crosses under the upper Bollinger Band, or when the ROC drops below the lower band again, indicating a reversal or weakening of momentum.
Visual Indicators:
ROC Plot: The ROC is plotted as a line to visualize the momentum direction.
Bollinger Bands: The upper and lower bands, along with their basis (simple moving averages), are plotted to delineate the expected range for the ROC.
Background Color: To enhance decision-making, the strategy colors the background when extreme conditions are detected—green for oversold (ROC below the lower band) and red for overbought (ROC above the upper band), indicating potential reversal zones.
Strategy Performance Considerations
The use of Bollinger Bands in this strategy provides an adaptive framework that adjusts to changing market volatility. When volatility increases, the bands widen, allowing for larger price movements, while during quieter periods, the bands contract, reducing trade signals. This adaptiveness is critical in maintaining strategy effectiveness across different market conditions.
The strategy’s pyramiding setting is disabled (pyramiding=0), ensuring that only one position is taken at a time, which is a conservative risk management approach. Additionally, the strategy includes transaction costs and slippage parameters to account for real-world trading conditions.
Empirical Evidence and Relevance
The combination of momentum and mean reversion has been widely studied and shown to provide profitable opportunities under certain market conditions. Studies such as Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) confirm that momentum strategies tend to work well in trending markets, while mean reversion strategies have been effective during periods of high volatility or after sharp price movements (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985). By integrating both strategies into one system, the Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy may be able to capitalize on both trending and reverting market behavior.
Furthermore, research by Chan (1996) on momentum-based trading systems demonstrates that adaptive strategies, which adjust to changes in market volatility, often outperform static strategies, providing a compelling rationale for the use of Bollinger Bands in this context.
Conclusion
The Adaptive Momentum Reversion Strategy provides a robust framework for trading based on the dual concepts of momentum and mean reversion. By using ROC in combination with Bollinger Bands, the strategy is capable of identifying overbought and oversold conditions while adapting to changing market conditions. The use of adaptive indicators ensures that the strategy remains flexible and can perform across different market environments, potentially offering a competitive edge for traders who seek to balance risk and reward in their trading approaches.
References
Bollinger, J. (2002). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. McGraw-Hill Professional.
Chan, L. K. C. (1996). Momentum, Mean Reversion, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681-1713.
De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact? Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), 246-273.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 27-59.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research.
Wyszukaj w skryptach "change"
Volatility IndicatorThe volatility indicator presented here is based on multiple volatility indices that reflect the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations across different asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. These indices serve as valuable tools for traders and analysts seeking to anticipate potential market movements, as volatility is a key factor influencing asset prices and market dynamics (Bollerslev, 1986).
Volatility, defined as the magnitude of price changes, is often regarded as a measure of market uncertainty or risk. Financial markets exhibit periods of heightened volatility that may precede significant price movements, whether upward or downward (Christoffersen, 1998). The indicator presented in this script tracks several key volatility indices, including the VIX (S&P 500), GVZ (Gold), OVX (Crude Oil), and others, to help identify periods of increased uncertainty that could signal potential market turning points.
Volatility Indices and Their Relevance
Volatility indices like the VIX are considered “fear gauges” as they reflect the market’s expectation of future volatility derived from the pricing of options. A rising VIX typically signals increasing investor uncertainty and fear, which often precedes market corrections or significant price movements. In contrast, a falling VIX may suggest complacency or confidence in continued market stability (Whaley, 2000).
The other volatility indices incorporated in the indicator script, such as the GVZ (Gold Volatility Index) and OVX (Oil Volatility Index), capture the market’s perception of volatility in specific asset classes. For instance, GVZ reflects market expectations for volatility in the gold market, which can be influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, inflation expectations, and changes in investor sentiment toward safe-haven assets. Similarly, OVX tracks the implied volatility of crude oil options, which is a crucial factor for predicting price movements in energy markets, often driven by geopolitical events, OPEC decisions, and supply-demand imbalances (Pindyck, 2004).
Using the Indicator to Identify Market Movements
The volatility indicator alerts traders when specific volatility indices exceed a defined threshold, which may signal a change in market sentiment or an upcoming price movement. These thresholds, set by the user, are typically based on historical levels of volatility that have preceded significant market changes. When a volatility index exceeds this threshold, it suggests that market participants expect greater uncertainty, which often correlates with increased price volatility and the possibility of a trend reversal.
For example, if the VIX exceeds a pre-determined level (e.g., 30), it could indicate that investors are anticipating heightened volatility in the equity markets, potentially signaling a downturn or correction in the broader market. On the other hand, if the OVX rises significantly, it could point to an upcoming sharp movement in crude oil prices, driven by changing market expectations about supply, demand, or geopolitical risks (Geman, 2005).
Practical Application
To effectively use this volatility indicator in market analysis, traders should monitor the alert signals generated when any of the volatility indices surpass their thresholds. This can be used to identify periods of market uncertainty or potential market turning points across different sectors, including equities, commodities, and currencies. The indicator can help traders prepare for increased price movements, adjust their risk management strategies, or even take advantage of anticipated price swings through options trading or volatility-based strategies (Black & Scholes, 1973).
Traders may also use this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to validate the potential for significant market movements. For example, if the VIX exceeds its threshold and the market is simultaneously approaching a critical technical support or resistance level, the trader might consider entering a position that capitalizes on the anticipated price breakout or reversal.
Conclusion
This volatility indicator is a robust tool for identifying market conditions that are conducive to significant price movements. By tracking the behavior of key volatility indices, traders can gain insights into the market’s expectations of future price fluctuations, enabling them to make more informed decisions regarding market entries and exits. Understanding and monitoring volatility can be particularly valuable during times of heightened uncertainty, as changes in volatility often precede substantial shifts in market direction (French et al., 1987).
References
• Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.
• Christoffersen, P. F. (1998). Evaluating Interval Forecasts. International Economic Review, 39(4), 841-862.
• Whaley, R. E. (2000). Derivatives on Market Volatility. Journal of Derivatives, 7(4), 71-82.
• Pindyck, R. S. (2004). Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives. Journal of Futures Markets, 24(11), 973-987.
• Geman, H. (2005). Commodities and Commodity Derivatives: Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy. John Wiley & Sons.
• Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654.
• French, K. R., Schwert, G. W., & Stambaugh, R. F. (1987). Expected Stock Returns and Volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, 19(1), 3-29.
Probability System v1.0 [AstroHub]The Probability System is an indicator designed to assess the likelihood of a market trend change based on the analysis of previous candles. The system calculates the probability of price increasing (up) or decreasing (down) based on the count of bullish (up) and bearish (down) candles over a selected period. The script generates buy and sell signals based on these probabilities and displays visual elements that help traders gauge the strength of the trend across different timeframes.
How it works:
Probability Calculation:
The script analyzes the open and close prices of candles over the chosen period (default is 20).
Using this data, the script calculates the probability of price increasing Up Probability or decreasing Down Probability as percentages.
Signal Generation:
A Green signal is generated when the upProbability exceeds a set threshold.
A Red signal is generated when the downProbability exceeds a threshold.
Multi-Level Visualization:
For both up and down probabilities, four levels are defined: 50%, 60%, 70%, and 80%. Each level is represented by circles with varying intensity (color opacity):
Green circles below the price represent up probabilities, with increasing intensity indicating a stronger bullish trend.
Red circles above the price represent down probabilities, with increasing intensity showing stronger bearish signals.
Alerts:
Alerts are set up for each probability level, notifying traders in real-time when specific thresholds are met.
The alerts provide the exact percentage of the probability, allowing traders to act on changes in the market conditions promptly.
How to Use:
Set the desired analysis period (default is 20) and the probability threshold (e.g., 80%) for buy or sell signals.
The script will automatically display signals on the chart, as well as color-coded circles to indicate the probability strength.
Enable real-time notifications for each probability level to keep track of changes in the market trend.
This script is suitable for all types of traders, whether using short-term or long-term strategies.
Unique Features:
Multi-Level Probability Visualization: Four distinct probability levels (50%, 60%, 70%, 80%) are displayed with varying color intensities, providing a clearer understanding of market conditions.
Flexible Settings: Users can customize the analysis period and probability threshold according to their trading style and market conditions.
Real-Time Alerts: Alerts for different probability levels help traders respond swiftly to changes in the market.
Dynamic Signals Based on Statistics: The indicator doesn't rely on fixed data but rather uses the actual statistics of past candles, offering more accurate and timely signals for traders.
Suitable for All Trading Styles: Whether you trade short-term or follow longer-term strategies, this system is versatile and valuable for both types of traders.
Who it’s for:
This indicator is ideal for traders who use technical analysis and are looking for accurate signals based on the probability of trend changes. It’s useful for both beginner and experienced traders who want to improve the precision of their market decisions.
Market Correlation AnalysisMarket Correlation Analysis is an indicator that measures the correlation of any two instruments.
To express price changes in a way that is comparable, this indicator uses a percentage of the ATR as a unit.
User Inputs:
Other Symbol - the symbol which we want to compare with the symbol of the main chart.
ATR for Price Movement Normalisation - I recommend high values to get the ATR more stable across time - if the ATR drastically changes, the indicator will register that as a price movement, because the unit in which price movements are measured itself changed by a lot. However, with higher values the ATR is stable and, in my opinion, more reliable than simply a percentage change of the current price.
Correlation Length - this is the number of bars for which the correlation coefficient will be calculated.
About The Indicator:
Market Correlation Analysis expresses the price changes of both instruments in question on the same histogram.
By default, the price changes that represent the instrument of the main chart are expressed with thinner bars of stronger colour, while the price changes that represent the other instrument are expressed with much thicker bars, which are of more pale colour.
The correlation coefficient is not expressed on the histogram, as it has a different scale. Therefore, it is only showed as a number.
I hope this indicator can make it easier to understand just how much two instruments have been similar to one another over a certain period of time. The possibility to see the correlation for any given time frame can give information that very specific to any trading style.
True Amplitude Envelopes (TAE)The True Envelopes indicator is an adaptation of the True Amplitude Envelope (TAE) method, based on the research paper " Improved Estimation of the Amplitude Envelope of Time Domain Signals Using True Envelope Cepstral Smoothing " by Caetano and Rodet. This indicator aims to create an asymmetric price envelope with strong predictive power, closely following the methodology outlined in the paper.
Due to the inherent limitations of Pine Script, the indicator utilizes a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) in place of the original Cepstral Smoothing technique described in the paper. While this approach was chosen out of necessity rather than superiority, the resulting method is designed to be as effective as possible within the constraints of the Pine environment.
This indicator is ideal for traders seeking an advanced tool to analyze price dynamics, offering insights into potential price movements while working within the practical constraints of Pine Script. Whether used in dynamic mode or with a static setting, the True Envelopes indicator helps in identifying key support and resistance levels, making it a valuable asset in any trading strategy.
Key Features:
Dynamic Mode: The indicator dynamically estimates the fundamental frequency of the price, optimizing the envelope generation process in real-time to capture critical price movements.
High-Pass Filtering: Uses a high-pass filtered signal to identify and smoothly interpolate price peaks, ensuring that the envelope accurately reflects significant price changes.
Kernel Density Estimation: Although implemented as a workaround, the KDE technique allows for flexible and adaptive smoothing of the envelope, aimed at achieving results comparable to the more sophisticated methods described in the original research.
Symmetric and Asymmetric Envelopes: Provides options to select between symmetric and asymmetric envelopes, accommodating various trading strategies and market conditions.
Smoothness Control: Features adjustable smoothness settings, enabling users to balance between responsiveness and the overall smoothness of the envelopes.
The True Envelopes indicator comes with a variety of input settings that allow traders to customize the behavior of the envelopes to match their specific trading needs and market conditions. Understanding each of these settings is crucial for optimizing the indicator's performance.
Main Settings
Source: This is the data series on which the indicator is applied, typically the closing price (close). You can select other price data like open, high, low, or a custom series to base the envelope calculations.
History: This setting determines how much historical data the indicator should consider when calculating the envelopes. A value of 0 will make the indicator process all available data, while a higher value restricts it to the most recent n bars. This can be useful for reducing the computational load or focusing the analysis on recent market behavior.
Iterations: This parameter controls the number of iterations used in the envelope generation algorithm. More iterations will typically result in a smoother envelope, but can also increase computation time. The optimal number of iterations depends on the desired balance between smoothness and responsiveness.
Kernel Style: The smoothing kernel used in the Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). Available options include Sinc, Gaussian, Epanechnikov, Logistic, and Triangular. Each kernel has different properties, affecting how the smoothing is applied. For example, Gaussian provides a smooth, bell-shaped curve, while Epanechnikov is more efficient computationally with a parabolic shape.
Envelope Style: This setting determines whether the envelope should be Static or Dynamic. The Static mode applies a fixed period for the envelope, while the Dynamic mode automatically adjusts the period based on the fundamental frequency of the price data. Dynamic mode is typically more responsive to changing market conditions.
High Q: This option controls the quality factor (Q) of the high-pass filter. Enabling this will increase the Q factor, leading to a sharper cutoff and more precise isolation of high-frequency components, which can help in better identifying significant price peaks.
Symmetric: This setting allows you to choose between symmetric and asymmetric envelopes. Symmetric envelopes maintain an equal distance from the central price line on both sides, while asymmetric envelopes can adjust differently above and below the price line, which might better capture market conditions where upside and downside volatility are not equal.
Smooth Envelopes: When enabled, this setting applies additional smoothing to the envelopes. While this can reduce noise and make the envelopes more visually appealing, it may also decrease their responsiveness to sudden market changes.
Dynamic Settings
Extra Detrend: This setting toggles an additional high-pass filter that can be applied when using a long filter period. The purpose is to further detrend the data, ensuring that the envelope focuses solely on the most recent price oscillations.
Filter Period Multiplier: This multiplier adjusts the period of the high-pass filter dynamically based on the detected fundamental frequency. Increasing this multiplier will lengthen the period, making the filter less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations.
Filter Period (Min) and Filter Period (Max): These settings define the minimum and maximum bounds for the high-pass filter period. They ensure that the filter period stays within a reasonable range, preventing it from becoming too short (and overly sensitive) or too long (and too sluggish).
Envelope Period Multiplier: Similar to the filter period multiplier, this adjusts the period for the envelope generation. It scales the period dynamically to match the detected price cycles, allowing for more precise envelope adjustments.
Envelope Period (Min) and Envelope Period (Max): These settings establish the minimum and maximum bounds for the envelope period, ensuring the envelopes remain adaptive without becoming too reactive or too slow.
Static Settings
Filter Period: In static mode, this setting determines the fixed period for the high-pass filter. A shorter period will make the filter more responsive to price changes, while a longer period will smooth out more of the price data.
Envelope Period: This setting specifies the fixed period used for generating the envelopes in static mode. It directly influences how tightly or loosely the envelopes follow the price action.
TAE Smoothing: This controls the degree of smoothing applied during the TAE process in static mode. Higher smoothing values result in more gradual envelope curves, which can be useful in reducing noise but may also delay the envelope’s response to rapid price movements.
Visual Settings
Top Band Color: This setting allows you to choose the color for the upper band of the envelope. This band represents the resistance level in the price action.
Bottom Band Color: Similar to the top band color, this setting controls the color of the lower band, which represents the support level.
Center Line Color: This is the color of the central price line, often referred to as the carrier. It represents the detrended price around which the envelopes are constructed.
Line Width: This determines the thickness of the plotted lines for the top band, bottom band, and center line. Thicker lines can make the envelopes more visible, especially when overlaid on price data.
Fill Alpha: This controls the transparency level of the shaded area between the top and bottom bands. A lower alpha value will make the fill more transparent, while a higher value will make it more opaque, helping to highlight the envelope more clearly.
The envelopes generated by the True Envelopes indicator are designed to provide a more precise and responsive representation of price action compared to traditional methods like Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels. The core idea behind this indicator is to create a price envelope that smoothly interpolates the significant peaks in price action, offering a more accurate depiction of support and resistance levels.
One of the critical aspects of this approach is the use of a high-pass filtered signal to identify these peaks. The high-pass filter serves as an effective method of detrending the price data, isolating the rapid fluctuations in price that are often lost in standard trend-following indicators. By filtering out the lower frequency components (i.e., the trend), the high-pass filter reveals the underlying oscillations in the price, which correspond to significant peaks and troughs. These oscillations are crucial for accurately constructing the envelope, as they represent the most responsive elements of the price movement.
The algorithm works by first applying the high-pass filter to the source price data, effectively detrending the series and isolating the high-frequency price changes. This filtered signal is then used to estimate the fundamental frequency of the price movement, which is essential for dynamically adjusting the envelope to current market conditions. By focusing on the peaks identified in the high-pass filtered signal, the algorithm generates an envelope that is both smooth and adaptive, closely following the most significant price changes without overfitting to transient noise.
Compared to traditional envelopes and bands, such as Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels, the True Envelopes indicator offers several advantages. Bollinger Bands, which are based on standard deviations, and Keltner Channels, which use the average true range (ATR), both tend to react to price volatility but do not necessarily follow the peaks and troughs of the price with precision. As a result, these traditional methods can sometimes lag behind or fail to capture sudden shifts in price momentum, leading to either false signals or missed opportunities.
In contrast, the True Envelopes indicator, by using a high-pass filtered signal and a dynamic period estimation, adapts more quickly to changes in price behavior. The envelopes generated by this method are less prone to the lag that often affects standard deviation or ATR-based bands, and they provide a more accurate representation of the price's immediate oscillations. This can result in better predictive power and more reliable identification of support and resistance levels, making the True Envelopes indicator a valuable tool for traders looking for a more responsive and precise approach to market analysis.
In conclusion, the True Envelopes indicator is a powerful tool that blends advanced theoretical concepts with practical implementation, offering traders a precise and responsive way to analyze price dynamics. By adapting the True Amplitude Envelope (TAE) method through the use of a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) and high-pass filtering, this indicator effectively captures the most significant price movements, providing a more accurate depiction of support and resistance levels compared to traditional methods like Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels. The flexible settings allow for extensive customization, ensuring the indicator can be tailored to suit various trading strategies and market conditions.
ADM Indicator [CHE] Comprehensive Description of the Three Market Phases for TradingView
Introduction
Financial markets often exhibit patterns that reflect the collective behavior of participants. Recognizing these patterns can provide traders with valuable insights into potential future price movements. The ADM Indicator is designed to help traders identify and capitalize on these patterns by detecting three primary market phases:
1. Accumulation Phase
2. Manipulation Phase
3. Distribution Phase
This indicator places labels on the chart to signify these phases, aiding traders in making informed decisions. Below is an in-depth explanation of each phase, including how the ADM Indicator detects them.
1. Accumulation Phase
Definition
The Accumulation Phase is a period where informed investors or institutions discreetly purchase assets before a potential price increase. During this phase, the price typically moves within a confined range between established highs and lows.
Characteristics
- Price Range Bound: The asset's price stays within the previous high and low after a timeframe change.
- Low Volatility: Minimal price movement indicates a balance between buyers and sellers.
- Steady Volume: Trading volume may remain relatively constant or show slight increases.
- Market Sentiment: General market interest is low, as the accumulation is not yet apparent to the broader market.
Detection with ADM Indicator
- Criteria: An accumulation is detected when the price remains within the previous high and low after a timeframe change.
- Indicator Action: At the end of the period, if accumulation has occurred, the indicator places a label "Accumulation" on the chart.
- Visual Cues: A yellow semi-transparent background highlights the accumulation phase, enhancing visual recognition.
Implications for Traders
- Entry Opportunity: Consider preparing for potential long positions before a possible upward move.
- Risk Management: Use tight stop-loss orders below the support level due to the defined trading range.
2. Manipulation Phase
Definition
The Manipulation Phase, also known as the Shakeout Phase, occurs when dominant market players intentionally move the price to trigger stop-loss orders and create panic among less-informed traders. This action generates liquidity and better entry prices for large positions.
Characteristics
- False Breakouts: The price moves above the previous high or below the previous low but quickly reverses.
- Increased Volatility: Sharp price movements occur without fundamental reasons.
- Stop-Loss Hunting: The price targets common stop-loss areas, triggering them before reversing.
- Emotional Trading: Retail traders may react impulsively, leading to poor trading decisions.
Detection with ADM Indicator
- Manipulation Up:
- Criteria: Detected when the price rises above the previous high and then falls back below it.
- Indicator Action: Places a label "Manipulation Up" on the chart at the point of detection.
- Manipulation Down:
- Criteria: Detected when the price falls below the previous low and then rises back above it.
- Indicator Action: Places a label "Manipulation Down" on the chart at the point of detection.
- Visual Cues:
- Manipulation Up: Blue background highlights the phase.
- Manipulation Down: Orange background highlights the phase.
Implications for Traders
- Caution Advised: Be wary of false signals and avoid overreacting to sudden price changes.
- Preparation for Next Phase: Use this phase to anticipate potential distribution and adjust strategies accordingly.
3. Distribution Phase
Definition
The Distribution Phase occurs when the institutions or informed investors who accumulated positions start selling to the general market at higher prices. This phase often follows a Manipulation Phase and may signal an impending trend reversal.
Characteristics
- Price Reversal: The price moves in the opposite direction of the prior manipulation.
- High Trading Volume: Increased selling activity as large players offload positions.
- Trend Weakening: The previous trend loses momentum, indicating a potential shift.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Optimism fades, and uncertainty or pessimism may emerge.
Detection with ADM Indicator
- Distribution Up:
- Criteria: Detected after a verified Manipulation Up when the price subsequently falls below the previous low.
- Indicator Action: Places a label "Distribution Up" on the chart.
- Distribution Down:
- Criteria: Detected after a verified Manipulation Down when the price subsequently rises above the previous high.
- Indicator Action: Places a label "Distribution Down" on the chart.
- Visual Cues:
- Distribution Up: Purple background highlights the phase.
- Distribution Down: Maroon background highlights the phase.
Implications for Traders
- Exit Signals: Consider closing long positions if in a Distribution Up phase.
- Short Selling Opportunities: Potential to enter short positions anticipating a downtrend.
Using the ADM Indicator on TradingView
Indicator Overview
The ADM Indicator automates the detection of Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution phases by analyzing price movements relative to previous highs and lows on a selected timeframe. It provides visual cues and labels on the chart, helping traders quickly identify the current market phase.
Features
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Choose from auto, multiplier, or manual timeframe settings.
- Visual Labels: Clear labeling of market phases directly on the chart.
- Background Highlighting: Distinct background colors for each phase.
- Customizable Settings: Adjust colors, styles, and display options.
- Period Separators: Optional separators delineate different timeframes.
Interpreting the Indicator
1. Accumulation Phase
- Detection: Price stays within the previous high and low after a timeframe change.
- Label: "Accumulation" placed at the period's end if detected.
- Background: Yellow semi-transparent color.
- Action: Prepare for potential long positions.
2. Manipulation Phase
- Detection:
- Manipulation Up: Price rises above previous high and then falls back below.
- Manipulation Down: Price falls below previous low and then rises back above.
- Labels: "Manipulation Up" or "Manipulation Down" placed at detection.
- Background:
- Manipulation Up: Blue color.
- Manipulation Down: Orange color.
- Action: Exercise caution; avoid impulsive trades.
3. Distribution Phase
- Detection:
- Distribution Up: After a Manipulation Up, price falls below previous low.
- Distribution Down: After a Manipulation Down, price rises above previous high.
- Labels: "Distribution Up" or "Distribution Down" placed at detection.
- Background:
- Distribution Up: Purple color.
- Distribution Down: Maroon color.
- Action: Consider exiting positions or entering counter-trend trades.
Configuring the Indicator
- Timeframe Type: Select Auto, Multiplier, or Manual for analysis timeframe.
- Multiplier: Set a custom multiplier when using "Multiplier" type.
- Manual Resolution: Define a specific timeframe with "Manual" option.
- Separator Settings: Customize period separators for visual clarity.
- Label Display Options: Choose to display all labels or only the most recent.
- Visualization Settings: Adjust colors and styles for personal preference.
Practical Tips
- Combine with Other Analysis Tools: Use alongside volume indicators, trend lines, or other technical tools.
- Backtesting: Review historical data to understand how the indicator signals would have impacted past trades.
- Stay Informed: Keep abreast of market news that might affect price movements beyond technical analysis.
- Risk Management: Always employ stop-loss orders and position sizing strategies.
Conclusion
The ADM Indicator is a valuable tool for traders seeking to understand and leverage market phases. By detecting Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution phases through specific price action criteria, it provides actionable insights into market dynamics.
Understanding the precise conditions under which each phase is detected empowers traders to make more informed decisions. Whether preparing for potential breakouts during accumulation, exercising caution during manipulation, or adjusting positions during distribution, the ADM Indicator aids in navigating the complexities of the financial markets.
Disclaimer:
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
This indicator is inspired by the Super 6x Indicators: RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Loxxer, CCI, and Velocity . A special thanks to Loxx for their relentless effort, creativity, and contributions to the TradingView community, which served as a foundation for this work.
Best regards Chervolino
Overview of the Timeframe Levels in the `autotimeframe()` Function
The `autotimeframe()` function automatically adjusts the higher timeframe based on the current chart timeframe. Here are the specific timeframe levels used in the function:
- Current Timeframe ≤ 1 Minute
→ Higher Timeframe: 240 Minutes (4 Hours)
- Current Timeframe ≤ 5 Minutes
→ Higher Timeframe: 1 Day
- Current Timeframe ≤ 1 Hour
→ Higher Timeframe: 3 Days
- Current Timeframe ≤ 4 Hours
→ Higher Timeframe: 7 Days
- Current Timeframe ≤ 12 Hours
→ Higher Timeframe: 1 Month
- Current Timeframe ≤ 1 Day
→ Higher Timeframe: 3 Months
- Current Timeframe ≤ 7 Days
→ Higher Timeframe: 6 Months
- For All Higher Timeframes (over 7 Days)
→ Higher Timeframe: 12 Months
Summary:
The function assigns a corresponding higher timeframe based on the current timeframe to optimize the analysis:
- 1 Minute or Less → 4 Hours
- Up to 5 Minutes → 1 Day
- Up to 1 Hour → 3 Days
- Up to 4 Hours → 7 Days
- Up to 12 Hours → 1 Month
- Up to 1 Day → 3 Months
- Up to 7 Days → 6 Months
- Over 7 Days → 12 Months
This automated adjustment ensures that the indicator works effectively across different chart timeframes without requiring manual changes.
TechniTrend: Volatility and MACD Trend Highlighter🟦 Overview
The "Candle Volatility with Trend Prediction" indicator is a powerful tool designed to identify market volatility based on candle movement relative to average volume while also incorporating trend predictions using the MACD. This indicator is ideal for traders who want to detect volatile market conditions and anticipate potential price movements, leveraging both price changes and volume dynamics.
It not only highlights candles with significant price movements but also integrates a trend analysis based on the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), allowing traders to gauge whether the market momentum aligns with or diverges from the detected volatility.
🟦 Key Features
🔸Volatility Detection: Identifies candles that exceed normal price fluctuations based on average volume and recent price volatility.
🔸Trend Prediction: Uses the MACD indicator to overlay trend analysis, signaling potential market direction shifts.
🔸Volume-Based Analysis: Integrates customizable moving averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, etc.) of volume, providing a clear visualization of volume trends.
🔸Alert System: Automatically notifies traders of high-volatility situations, aiding in timely decision-making.
🔸Customizability: Includes multiple settings to tailor the indicator to different market conditions and timeframes.
🟦 How It Works
The indicator operates by evaluating the price volatility in relation to average volume and identifying when a candle's volatility surpasses a threshold defined by the user. The key calculations include:
🔸Average Volume Calculation: The user selects the type of moving average (SMA, EMA, etc.) to calculate the average volume over a set period.
🔸Volatility Measurement: The indicator measures the body change (difference between open and close) and the high-low range of each candle. It then calculates recent price volatility using a standard deviation over a user-defined length.
🔸Weighted Index: A unique index is created by dividing price change by average volume and recent volatility.
🔸Highlighting Volatility: If the weighted index exceeds a customizable threshold, the candle is highlighted, indicating potential trading opportunities.
🔸Trend Analysis with MACD: The MACD line and signal line are plotted and adjusted with a user-defined multiplier to visualize trends alongside the volatility signals.
🟦 Recommended Settings
🔸Volume MA Length: A default of 14 periods for the average volume calculation is recommended. Adjust to higher periods for long-term trends and shorter periods for quick trades.
🔸Volatility Threshold Multiplier: Set at 1.2 by default to capture moderately significant movements. Increase for fewer but stronger signals or decrease for more frequent signals.
🔸MACD Settings: Default MACD parameters (12, 26, 9) are suggested. Tweak based on your trading strategy and asset volatility.
🔸MACD Multiplier: Adjust based on how the MACD should visually compare to the average volume. A multiplier of 1 works well for most cases.
🟦 How to Use
🔸Volatile Market Detection:
Look for highlighted candles that suggest a deviation from typical price behavior. These candles often signify an entry point for short-term trades.
🔸Trend Confirmation:
Use the MACD trend analysis to verify if the highlighted volatile candles align with a bullish or bearish trend.
For example, a bullish MACD crossover combined with a highlighted candle suggests a potential uptrend, while a bearish crossover with volatility signals may indicate a downtrend.
🔸Volume-Driven Strategy:
Observe how volume changes impact candle volatility. When volume rises significantly and candles are highlighted, it can suggest strong market moves influenced by big players.
🟦 Best Use Cases
🔸Trend Reversals: Detect potential trend reversals early by spotting divergences between price and MACD within volatile conditions.
🔸Breakout Strategies: Use the indicator to confirm price breakouts with significant volume changes.
🔸Scalping or Day Trading: Customize the indicator for shorter timeframes to capture rapid market movements based on volatility spikes.
🔸Swing Trading: Combine volatility and trend insights to optimize entry and exit points over longer periods.
🟦 Customization Options
🔸Volume-Based Inputs: Choose from SMA, EMA, WMA, and more to define how average volume is calculated.
🔸Threshold Adjustments: Modify the volatility threshold multiplier to increase or decrease sensitivity based on your trading style.
🔸MACD Tuning: Adjust MACD settings and the multiplier for trend visualization tailored to different asset classes and market conditions.
🟦 Indicator Alerts
🔸High Volatility Alerts: Automatically triggered when candles exceed user-defined volatility levels.
🔸Bullish/Bearish Trend Alerts: Alerts are activated when highlighted volatile candles align with bullish or bearish MACD crossovers, making it easier to spot opportunities without constantly monitoring the chart.
🟦 Examples of Use
To better understand how this indicator works, consider the following scenarios:
🔸Example 1: In a strong uptrend, observe how volume surges and volatility highlight candles right before price consolidations, indicating optimal exit points.
🔸Example 2: During a downtrend, see how the MACD aligns with volume-driven volatility, signaling potential short-selling opportunities.
Adaptive Kalman filter - Trend Strength Oscillator (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Adaptive Kalman Filter - Trend Strength Oscillator by Zeiierman is a sophisticated trend-following indicator that uses advanced mathematical techniques, including vector and matrix operations, to decompose price movements into trend and oscillatory components. Unlike standard indicators, this model assumes that price is driven by two latent (unobservable) factors: a long-term trend and localized oscillations around that trend. Through a dynamic "predict and update" process, the Kalman Filter leverages vectors to adaptively separate these components, extracting a clearer view of market direction and strength.
█ How It Works
This indicator operates on a trend + local change Kalman Filter model. It assumes that price movements consist of two underlying components: a core trend and an oscillatory term, representing smaller price fluctuations around that trend. The Kalman Filter adaptively separates these components by observing the price series over time and performing real-time updates as new data arrives.
Predict and Update Procedure: The Kalman Filter uses an adaptive predict-update cycle to estimate both components. This cycle allows the filter to adjust dynamically as the market evolves, providing a smooth yet responsive signal. The trend component extracted from this process is plotted directly, giving a clear view of the prevailing direction. The oscillatory component indicates the tendency or strength of the trend, reflected in the green/red coloration of the oscillator line.
Trend Strength Calculation: Trend strength is calculated by comparing the current oscillatory value against a configurable number of past values.
█ Three Kalman filter Models
This indicator offers three distinct Kalman filter models, each designed to handle different market conditions:
Standard Model: This is a conventional Kalman Filter, balancing responsiveness and smoothness. It works well across general market conditions.
Volume-Adjusted Model: In this model, the filter’s measurement noise automatically adjusts based on trading volume. Higher volumes indicate more informative price movements, which the filter treats with higher confidence. Conversely, low-volume movements are treated as less informative, adding robustness during low-activity periods.
Parkinson-Adjusted Model: This model adjusts measurement noise based on price volatility. It uses the price range (high-low) to determine the filter’s sensitivity, making it ideal for handling markets with frequent gaps or spikes. The model responds with higher confidence in low-volatility periods and adapts to high-volatility scenarios by treating them with more caution.
█ How to Use
Trend Detection: The oscillator oscillates around zero, with positive values indicating a bullish trend and negative values indicating a bearish trend. The further the oscillator moves from zero, the stronger the trend. The Kalman filter trend line on the chart can be used in conjunction with the oscillator to determine the market's trend direction.
Trend Reversals: The blue areas in the oscillator suggest potential trend reversals, helping traders identify emerging market shifts. These areas can also indicate a potential pullback within the prevailing trend.
Overbought/Oversold: The thresholds, such as 70 and -70, help identify extreme conditions. When the oscillator reaches these levels, it suggests that the trend may be overextended, possibly signaling an upcoming reversal.
█ Settings
Process Noise 1: Controls the primary level of uncertainty in the Kalman filter model. Higher values make the filter more responsive to recent price changes, but may also increase susceptibility to random noise.
Process Noise 2: This secondary noise setting works with Process Noise 1 to adjust the model's adaptability. Together, these settings manage the uncertainty in the filter's internal model, allowing for finely-tuned adjustments to smoothness versus responsiveness.
Measurement Noise: Sets the uncertainty in the observed price data. Increasing this value makes the filter rely more on historical data, resulting in smoother but less reactive filtering. Lower values make the filter more responsive but potentially more prone to noise.
O sc Smoothness: Controls the level of smoothing applied to the trend strength oscillator. Higher values result in a smoother oscillator, which may cause slight delays in response. Lower values make the oscillator more reactive to trend changes, useful for capturing quick reversals or volatility within the trend.
Kalman Filter Model: Choose between Standard, Volume-Adjusted, and Parkinson-Adjusted models. Each model adapts the Kalman filter for specific conditions, whether balancing general market data, adjusting based on volume, or refining based on volatility.
Trend Lookback: Defines how far back to look when calculating the trend strength, which impacts the indicator's sensitivity to changes in trend strength. Shorter values make the oscillator more reactive to recent trends, while longer values provide a smoother reading.
Strength Smoothness: Adjusts the level of smoothing applied to the trend strength oscillator. Higher values create a more gradual response, while lower values make the oscillator more sensitive to recent changes.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Option Delta CandlesDescription:
The Option Delta Candles with EMA indicator is designed to help traders visualize option delta values as candlesticks, calculated using the Black-Scholes model. It provides a unique way to view the cumulative delta changes in a normalized format, making it easier to identify trends and reversals. The addition of an EMA (Exponential Moving Average) overlay helps smooth out the data for better trend analysis.
Features:
Customizable Inputs:
Risk-Free Interest Rate: Adjust the risk-free rate for more precise option calculations.
Volatility: Input the volatility of the underlying asset to reflect current market conditions.
Strike Price: Enter the desired strike price of the option.
Days to Expiration: Specify the days until the option's expiration.
EMA Length: Modify the length of the EMA to suit different time frames and trading styles.
Visual Styles:
Customizable candle colors for bullish and bearish candles.
Configurable border and wick colors for personalized chart aesthetics.
How It Works:
The indicator uses the Black-Scholes model to calculate the delta of a European call option. Delta measures the sensitivity of the option's price to changes in the price of the underlying asset.
A cumulative delta is calculated and normalized to create candlestick representations, providing a visual cue of how the option delta changes over time.
The scaled delta values are normalized between 0 and 1, allowing for a consistent view of relative strength and weakness.
The EMA overlay helps identify smoothed trends and potential reversals within the delta data.
Applications:
Trend Identification: The indicator helps spot trends and potential reversals in option delta movements.
Volatility Analysis: By visualizing option delta, traders can gain insight into how changes in volatility impact options pricing.
Advanced Analysis: This tool is ideal for options traders and analysts looking to integrate delta analysis into their strategies.
Use Cases:
Traders can use the candlestick view to understand shifts in market sentiment through delta changes.
Options Analysts can visualize delta fluctuations over time, aiding in complex options trading strategies.
Technical Analysts may combine this indicator with other tools to confirm signals and enhance trading decisions.
Indicator Configuration:
Input Settings:
Risk-free interest rate (as a percentage).
Volatility (standard deviation) in percentage.
Strike price of the option.
Days remaining until expiration.
EMA length for trend analysis.
Style Customization:
Select colors for bullish and bearish candles, border, and wicks.
Change the color of the EMA line to distinguish it on the chart.
Release Notes:
Initial Version: Includes full implementation of the Black-Scholes delta calculation with customizable EMA and normalized candlestick view.
Future Updates: Potential additions may include enhancements for put options and integrated alerts.
Cumulative Volume Delta Custom AlertDescription
This script calculates and visualizes the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on multiple timeframes, enabling traders to monitor volume-based price action dynamics. The CVD is calculated based on up and down volume approximations and displayed as a candle plot, with color-coded alerts when significant changes occur.
Key Features:
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: The script uses a customizable anchor period and a lower timeframe for scanning, allowing it to capture more granular volume movements.
Volume-Based Trend Detection: Plots CVD candles with color indicators (teal for increasing volume delta, red for decreasing), helping traders to visually track volume trends.
Dynamic Alerts for Volume Shifts:
Triggers an alert when there is a significant (over 25%) change in CVD between consecutive periods.
The alert marker color adapts based on the current CVD value:
Blue when the current CVD is positive.
Yellow when the current CVD is negative.
Markers are placed above bars for volume increases and below for volume decreases, simplifying visual analysis.
Customizable Background Highlight: Adds a background highlight to emphasize significant CVD changes.
Use Cases:
Momentum Detection: Traders can use alerts on large volume delta changes to identify potential trend reversals or continuation points.
Volume-Driven Analysis: CVD helps distinguish buy and sell pressure across different timeframes, ideal for volume-based strategies.
How to Use
Add the script to your TradingView chart.
Configure the anchor and lower timeframes in the input settings.
Set up alerts to receive notifications when a 25% change in CVD occurs, with color-coded markers for easy identification.
Rolling ATR Bands | Flux Charts💎 GENERAL OVERVIEW
Introducing the Rolling ATR Bands indicator! This indicator overlays adaptive bands around the price, using the Average True Range (ATR) to define dynamic support and resistance levels. The Rolling ATR Bands are color-coded to visually indicate potential trend strength, shifting between bearish, neutral, and bullish colors. This tool can help traders interpret price volatility, as well as identify probable trend changes, continuations, or reversals. For more information about the process, check the "HOW DOES IT WORK ?" section.
Features of the new Rolling ATR Bands:
ATR Bands With Customizable ATR Length & Multiplier
Smooth Trend Strength With Adjustable Smoothing Options
Color-coded bands Representing Bearish, Neutral, or Bullish Trends
Alerts for Retests & Breaks
Customizable Visuals
📌 HOW DOES IT WORK?
The Rolling ATR Bands indicator calculates the ATR based on the specified length and multiplier to form upper and lower bands around the price. These bands adapt with market volatility, widening during high volatility and contracting during lower volatility periods.
In addition, the indicator calculates a "trend strength" score by combining an interpolated RSI, Supertrend, and EMA crossover. This score is smoothed with a customizable length, and a color gradient is applied to visually denote the strength of bearish, neutral, or bullish conditions.
Here's how to interpret the bands:
Upper Band: Acts as dynamic resistance; when price approaches or touches it, this often suggests potential overbought conditions.
Lower Band: Acts as dynamic support; touching or nearing this band might indicate potential oversold conditions.
Color Shifts: Color changes indicate shifts in trend direction. For example, a green color suggests a bullish trend, while red hints at bearish tendencies.
🚩 UNIQUENESS
What sets the Rolling ATR Bands apart is the combined use of interpolated RSI, Supertrend, and EMA cross values, creating a weighted trend strength score. This integration allows for nuanced, color-coded visual cues that respond quickly to trend changes without excessive noise, offering traders an intuitive view of both trend direction and potential momentum. You can also set up alerts for retest & alerts for upper and lower bands to get informed of potential movements.
⚙️ SETTINGS
1. General Configuration
ATR Length : Controls the ATR calculation length for the bands.
Smoothing: Adjusts the trend strength smoothing to control sensitivity to trend changes.
ATR Multiplier : Sets the width of the bands by multiplying the ATR value.
Trend Smoothing : Higher settings will result in longer periods of time required for trend to change direction from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
Supertrend Scanner on ChartThis Indicator is Used to scan 10 stock on chart.
Supertrend is widely used indicator on tradingview. So we have used the originals indicator codes of supertrend by tradingview here. Background color has been changed as per supertrend trrend.
Problem : Sometime trader wants to track multiple stocks supertrend at a time. Mostly those stock are of same sector. To track all the stocks of same sector in one chart , trader has to open multiple charts for that.
Solution : This indicator pointout where other stocks has changed the trend. Like if you see "SBIN" written in GEREEN at bottom of the candle , that means on that particular candle SBIN supertrend has changed to positive. Similarly if you see "KOTAK" written in RED at top of the candle the means supertrend has changed to Negative on that particular candle. Its so easy to trace 10 stock on same chart which stocks labelling.
How to use :
When you trade on any index , then apply all the index constituents stock on this indicator. When Index changes the trend and that change in trend is confirmed by other constituents ( like 7/10 confirmed ) then that is confirmed trend. If all the constituents are on same direction than that's the confirmed trend.
Disclamer : This indicator is for education purpose , for any profit or loss , we are not responsible. Trade on your own risk.
Prime Multi-Ticker Screener: Real-Time Market StructurePrime Multi-Ticker Screener: Real-Time Market Structure and Trend Detection Tool
Prime Multi-Ticker Screener is designed to track multiple tickers simultaneously, providing real-time insights into market trends and structure changes such as CHoCH (Change of Character) and BOS (Break of Structure). This tool is perfect for traders looking to monitor multiple assets across different timeframes while receiving clear signals that highlight critical market shifts. The indicator delivers instant visual feedback with color-coded backgrounds to make interpreting signals easy and efficient.
Core Features of Prime Multi-Ticker Screener
Multi-Ticker Monitoring: Track up to 5 tickers across multiple timeframes in a single dashboard. This makes it easy to watch several assets at once without cluttering your chart.
CHoCH and BOS Detection: The screener automatically detects and highlights significant market structure shifts. CHoCH signals are shown when a trend reverses or consolidates, while BOS signals indicate a break in previous highs or lows, helping traders catch potential trend reversals early.
Color-Coded Visuals: The background of each signal cell dynamically changes color to represent bullish or bearish signals. Green indicates bullish activity, while red highlights bearish market shifts, making it easy for traders to identify key movements at a glance.
Close Price and ATR Data: For each ticker, the screener displays both the current close price and the 14-period Average True Range (ATR), providing important volatility information to support decision-making.
Detailed Explanation of How Prime Multi-Ticker Screener Works
Prime Multi-Ticker Screener combines trend detection with real-time market structure analysis to deliver comprehensive market insights. It analyzes the following components:
CHoCH Detection: Change of Character occurs when the market switches from trending to ranging or vice versa. This indicator catches these moments by identifying when prices cross pivot levels, providing traders with a valuable signal of potential market phase changes.
BOS Detection: The Break of Structure function highlights moments when the price breaks a significant high or low, often indicating the start of a new trend or the continuation of an existing one.
Close Price & ATR Monitoring: Alongside market structure signals, the screener provides real-time data on the close price and the Average True Range (ATR), ensuring traders have a complete picture of the price and volatility landscape for each asset they are tracking.
Why It's Useful for Traders
Prime Multi-Ticker Screener is a versatile tool that offers substantial benefits to traders who want to stay informed about multiple assets and trends simultaneously:
Comprehensive Monitoring: Track multiple assets in real time, all from a single indicator. Whether you trade crypto, forex, or stocks, this tool helps you stay on top of market movements across different assets and timeframes.
Market Structure Analysis: The automatic detection of CHoCH and BOS signals gives traders an edge by identifying potential reversals and trend continuations as they happen, allowing for more timely and informed trading decisions.
Efficient and Intuitive Design: The screener is designed with simplicity in mind. The color-coded backgrounds quickly alert traders to market structure shifts without overwhelming them with data, making it ideal for those who need to act fast.
How It Works: Practical Usage
Prime Multi-Ticker Screener is ideal for:
Day traders: The real-time tracking of multiple assets allows day traders to quickly spot trading opportunities across different markets.
Swing traders: CHoCH and BOS detection help swing traders catch key market structure shifts, helping them align trades with emerging trends.
Trend followers: The screener provides instant feedback on when a trend is continuing or breaking, helping trend-following traders maintain their positions or exit early when needed.
By combining multiple key metrics—price, volatility, and market structure—Prime Multi-Ticker Screener ensures traders are well-equipped to manage their positions across a variety of assets.
Risk Disclaimer
While Prime Multi-Ticker Screener provides valuable market insights, it's important to remember:
Past performance is not indicative of future results: This screener provides analysis based on historical data, and no indicator can predict future market movements with certainty.
Market Conditions: The effectiveness of Prime Multi-Ticker Screener may vary in different market conditions, so traders should always use proper risk management when trading.
Trading Risks: Like any trading tool, Prime Multi-Ticker Screener should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy, including risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders and position sizing.
Ewma | viResearchEwma | viResearch
Conceptual Foundation and Innovation
The "Ewma" indicator from viResearch combines the benefits of the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) with the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) to offer traders a more responsive and precise method for trend-following. The EWMA applies greater weight to recent price data, allowing the indicator to adapt quickly to market changes while filtering out short-term fluctuations. By incorporating both EWMA and WMA, this script provides a smoother and more accurate representation of market trends, making it ideal for identifying potential trend shifts and improving trade timing.
This dual-layer smoothing process enables traders to follow market trends with greater accuracy and sensitivity, allowing them to respond quickly to price movements while minimizing the impact of market noise.
Technical Composition and Calculation
The "Ewma" script uses a combination of WMA and EWMA to smooth out price data. First, a WMA is applied to the selected source price over a user-defined length. This WMA is then used as the input for calculating the EWMA, further smoothing the trend and reducing lag. The EWMA is calculated over the same user-defined length, ensuring consistency between the two smoothing processes. This layered approach helps generate more reliable signals for trend changes, as it reduces the influence of short-term price volatility while maintaining responsiveness to significant price movements.
The script monitors whether the current EWMA value is higher or lower than the previous value, generating a trend signal based on this comparison. If the EWMA is higher than the previous bar, it signals a potential upward trend, while a lower EWMA indicates a possible downward trend.
Features and User Inputs
The "Ewma" script offers several customizable inputs, allowing traders to fine-tune the indicator to suit their trading strategies. The Length input controls the period over which both the WMA and EWMA are calculated, affecting how responsive or smooth the indicator is. Additionally, the script includes built-in alert conditions, notifying traders when a trend shift occurs, either to the upside or downside.
Practical Applications
The "Ewma" indicator is designed for traders who want to capture market trends more accurately while reducing the noise from short-term price fluctuations. The dual smoothing of the EWMA helps traders identify potential trend reversals with greater clarity, allowing for earlier and more informed trade entries and exits. By smoothing price data while maintaining responsiveness, the "Ewma" indicator enhances traditional trend-following methods, making it easier to stay aligned with longer-term market trends. The adjustable length setting allows traders to adapt the indicator to various market conditions, whether they prefer faster signals for short-term trading or slower, smoother signals for long-term trend analysis.
Advantages and Strategic Value
The "Ewma" script offers a significant advantage by combining the WMA with the EWMA, delivering a smoother and more responsive trend indicator. This combination helps traders reduce the impact of short-term volatility while maintaining the ability to react quickly to significant price changes. By offering an adaptable and reliable method for trend-following, the "Ewma" indicator helps traders optimize their market positioning and improve the accuracy of their trading strategies.
Alerts and Visual Cues
The script includes alert conditions that notify traders when a significant trend change occurs. The "Ewma Long" alert is triggered when the EWMA crosses above its previous value, indicating a potential upward trend. The "Ewma Short" alert signals a possible downward trend when the EWMA crosses below its previous value. Visual cues, such as changes in the EWMA line color, provide traders with clear and actionable information in real time.
Summary and Usage Tips
The "Ewma | viResearch" indicator provides traders with a powerful tool for trend analysis by combining the benefits of WMA and EWMA smoothing. By incorporating this script into your trading strategy, you can improve your ability to detect trend shifts, confirm trend direction, and reduce noise from short-term price fluctuations. Whether you’re focused on short-term market moves or long-term trends, the "Ewma" indicator offers a reliable and customizable solution for traders at all levels.
Note: Backtests are based on past results and are not indicative of future performance.
Grid Bot Parabolic [xxattaxx]🟩 The Grid Bot Parabolic, a continuation of the Grid Bot Simulator Series , enhances traditional gridbot theory by employing a dynamic parabolic curve to visualize potential support and resistance levels. This adaptability is particularly useful in volatile or trending markets, enabling traders to explore grid-based strategies and gain deeper market insights. The grids are divided into customizable trade zones that trigger signals as prices move into new zones, empowering traders to gain deeper insights into market dynamics and potential turning points.
While traditional grid bots excel in ranging markets, the Grid Bot Parabolic’s introduction of acceleration and curvature adds new dimensions, enabling its use in trending markets as well. It can function as a traditional grid bot with horizontal lines, a tilted grid bot with linear slopes, or a fully parabolic grid with curves. This dynamic nature allows the indicator to adapt to various market conditions, providing traders with a versatile tool for visualizing dynamic support and resistance levels.
🔑 KEY FEATURES 🔑
Adaptable Grid Structures (Horizontal, Linear, Curved)
Buy and Sell Signals with Multiple Trigger/Confirmation Conditions
Secondary Buy and Secondary Sell Signals
Projected Grid Lines
Customizable Grid Spacing and Zones
Acceleration and Curvature Control
Sensitivity Adjustments
📐 GRID STRUCTURES 📐
Beyond its core parabolic functionality, the Parabolic Grid Bot offers a range of grid configurations to suit different market conditions and trading preferences. By adjusting the "Acceleration" and "Curvature" parameters, you can transform the grid's structure:
Parabolic Grids
Setting both acceleration and curvature to non-zero values results in a parabolic grid.This configuration can be particularly useful for visualizing potential turning points and trend reversals. Example: Accel = 10, Curve = -10)
Linear Grids
With a non-zero acceleration and zero curvature, the grid tilts to represent a linear trend, aiding in identifying potential support and resistance levels during trending phases. Example: Accel =1.75, Curve = 0
Horizontal Grids
When both acceleration and curvature are set to zero, the indicator reverts to a traditional grid bot with horizontal lines, suitable for ranging markets. Example: Accel=0, Curve=0
⚙️ INITIAL SETUP ⚙️
1.Adding the Indicator to Your Chart
Locate a Starting Point: To begin, visually identify a price point on your chart where you want the grid to start.This point will anchor your grid.
2. Setting Up the Grid
Add the Grid Bot Parabolic Indicator to your chart. A “Start Time/Price” dialog will appear
CLICK on the chart at your chosen start point. This will anchor the start point and open a "Confirm Inputs" dialog box.
3. Configure Settings. In the dialog box, you can set the following:
Acceleration: Adjust how quickly the grid reacts to price changes.
Curve: Define the shape of the parabola.
Intervals: Determine the distance between grid levels.
If you choose to keep the default settings, with acceleration set to 0 and curve set to 0, the grid will display as traditional horizontal lines. The grid will align with your selected price point, and you can adjust the settings at any time through the indicator’s settings panel.
⚙️ CONFIGURATION AND SETTINGS ⚙️
Grid Settings
Accel (Acceleration): Controls how quickly the price reacts to changes over time.
Curve (Curvature): Defines the overall shape of the parabola.
Intervals (Grid Spacing): Determines the vertical spacing between the grid lines.
Sensitivity: Fine tunes the magnitude of Acceleration and Curve.
Buy Zones & Sell Zones: Define the number of grid levels used for potential buy and sell signals.
* Each zone is represented on the chart with different colors:
* Green: Buy Zones
* Red: Sell Zones
* Yellow: Overlap (Buy and Sell Zones intersect)
* Gray: Neutral areas
Trigger: Chooses which part of the candlestick is used to trigger a signal.
* `Wick`: Uses the high or low of the candlestick
* `Close`: Uses the closing price of the candlestick
* `Midpoint`: Uses the middle point between the high and low of the candlestick
* `SWMA`: Uses the Symmetrical Weighted Moving Average
Confirm: Specifies how a signal is confirmed.
* `Reverse`: The signal is confirmed if the price moves in the opposite direction of the initial trigger
* `Touch`: The signal is confirmed when the price touches the specified level or zone
Sentiment: Determines the market sentiment, which can influence signal generation.
* `Slope`: Sentiment is based on the direction of the curve, reflecting the current trend
* `Long`: Sentiment is bullish, favoring buy signals
* `Short`: Sentiment is bearish, favoring sell signals
* `Neutral`: Sentiment is neutral. No secondary signals will be generated
Show Signals: Toggles the display of buy and sell signals on the chart
Chart Settings
Grid Colors: These colors define the visual appearance of the grid lines
Projected: These colors define the visual appearance of the projected lines
Parabola/SWMA: Adjust colors as needed. These are disabled by default.
Time/Price
Start Time & Start Price: These set the starting point for the parabolic curve.
* These fields are automatically populated when you add the indicator to the chart and click on an initial location
* These can be adjusted manually in the settings panel, but he easiest way to change these is by directly interacting with the start point on the chart
Please note: Time and Price must be adjusted for each chart when switching assets. For example, a Start Price on BTCUSD of $60,000 will not work on an ETHUSD chart.
🤖 ALGORITHM AND CALCULATION 🤖
The Parabolic Function
At the core of the Parabolic Grid Bot lies the parabolic function, which calculates a dynamic curve that adapts to price action over time. This curve serves as the foundation for visualizing potential support and resistance levels.
The shape and behavior of the parabola are influenced by three key user-defined parameters:
Acceleration: This parameter controls the rate of change of the curve's slope, influencing its tilt or steepness. A higher acceleration value results in a more pronounced tilt, while a lower value leads to a gentler slope. This applies to both curved and linear grid configurations.
Curvature: This parameter introduces and controls the curvature or bend of the grid. A higher curvature value results in a more pronounced parabolic shape, while a lower value leads to a flatter curve or even a straight line (when set to zero).
Sensitivity: This setting fine-tunes the overall responsiveness of the grid, influencing how strongly the Acceleration and Curvature parameters affect its shape. Increasing sensitivity amplifies the impact of these parameters, making the grid more adaptable to price changes but potentially leading to more frequent adjustments. Decreasing sensitivity reduces their impact, resulting in a more stable grid structure with fewer adjustments. It may be necessary to adjust Sensitivity when switching between different assets or timeframes to ensure optimal scaling and responsiveness.
The parabolic function combines these parameters to generate a curve that visually represents the potential path of price movement. By understanding how these inputs influence the parabola's shape and behavior, traders can gain valuable insights into potential support and resistance areas, aiding in their decision-making process.
Sentiment
The Parabolic Grid Bot incorporates sentiment to enhance signal generation. The "Sentiment" input allows you to either:
Manually specify the market sentiment: Choose between 'Long' (bullish), 'Short' (bearish), or 'Neutral'.
Let the script determine sentiment based on the slope of the parabolic curve: If 'Slope' is selected, the sentiment will be considered 'Long' when the curve is sloping upwards, 'Short' when it's sloping downwards, and 'Neutral' when it's flat.
Buy and Sell Signals
The Parabolic Grid Bot generates buy and sell signals based on the interaction between the price and the grid levels.
Trigger: The "Trigger" input determines which part of the candlestick is used to trigger a signal (wick, close, midpoint, or SWMA).
Confirmation: The "Confirm" input specifies how a signal is confirmed ('Reverse' or 'Touch').
Zones: The number of "Buy Zones" and "Sell Zones" determines the areas on the grid where buy and sell signals can be generated.
When the trigger condition is met within a buy zone and the confirmation criteria are satisfied, a buy signal is generated. Similarly, a sell signal is generated when the trigger and confirmation occur within a sell zone.
Secondary Signals
Secondary signals are generated when a regular buy or sell signal contradicts the prevailing sentiment. For example:
A buy signal in a bearish market (Sentiment = 'Short') would be considered a "secondary buy" signal.
A sell signal in a bullish market (Sentiment = 'Long') would be considered a "secondary sell" signal.
These secondary signals are visually represented on the chart using hollow triangles, differentiating them from regular signals (filled triangles).
While they can be interpreted as potential contrarian trade opportunities, secondary signals can also serve other purposes within a grid trading strategy:
Exit Signals: A secondary signal can suggest a potential shift in market sentiment or a weakening trend. This could be a cue to consider exiting an existing position, even if it's currently profitable, to lock in gains before a potential reversal
Risk Management: In a strong trend, secondary signals might offer opportunities for cautious counter-trend trades with controlled risk. These trades could utilize smaller position sizes or tighter stop-losses to manage potential downside if the main trend continues
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): During a prolonged trend, the parabolic curve might generate multiple secondary signals in the opposite direction. These signals could be used to implement a DCA strategy, gradually accumulating a position at potentially favorable prices as the market retraces or consolidates within the larger trend
Secondary signals should be interpreted with caution and considered in conjunction with other technical indicators and market context. They provide additional insights into potential market reversals or consolidation phases within a broader trend, aiding in adapting your grid trading strategy to the evolving market dynamics.
Examples
Trigger=Wick, Confirm=Touch. Signals are generated when the wick touches the next gridline.
Trigger=Close, Confirm=Touch. Signals require the close to touch the next gridline.
Trigger=SWMA, Confirm=Reverse. Signals are triggered when the Symmetrically Weighted Moving Average reverse crosses the next gridline.
🧠THEORY AND RATIONALE 🧠
The innovative approach of the Parabolic Grid Bot can be better understood by first examining the limitations of traditional grid trading strategies and exploring how this indicator addresses them by incorporating principles of market cycles and dynamic price behavior
Traditional Grid Bots: One-Dimensional and Static
Traditional grid bots operate on a simple premise: they divide the price chart into a series of equally spaced horizontal lines, creating a grid of trading zones. These bots excel in ranging markets where prices oscillate within a defined range. Buy and sell orders are placed at these grid levels, aiming to profit from mean reversion as prices bounce between the support and resistance zones.
However, traditional grid bots face challenges in trending markets. As the market moves in one direction, the bot continues to place orders in that direction, leading to a stacking of positions. If the market eventually reverses, these stacked trades can be profitable, amplifying gains. But the risk lies in the potential for the market to continue trending, leaving the trader with a series of losing trades on the wrong side of the market
The Parabolic Grid Bot: Adding Dimensions
The Parabolic Grid Bot addresses the limitations of traditional grid bots by introducing two additional dimensions:
Acceleration (Second Dimension): This parameter introduces a second dimension to the grid, allowing it to tilt upwards or downwards to align with the prevailing market trend. A positive acceleration creates an upward-sloping grid, suitable for uptrends, while a negative acceleration results in a downward-sloping grid, ideal for downtrends. The magnitude of acceleration controls the steepness of the tilt, enabling you to fine-tune the grid's responsiveness to the trend's strength
Curvature (Third Dimension): This parameter adds a third dimension to the grid by introducing a parabolic curve. The curve's shape, ranging from gentle bends to sharp turns, is controlled by the curvature value. This flexibility allows the grid to closely mirror the market's evolving structure, potentially identifying turning points and trend reversals.
Mean Reversion in Trending Markets
Even in trending markets, the Parabolic Grid Bot can help identify opportunities for mean reversion strategies. While the grid may be tilted to reflect the trend, the buy and sell zones can capture short-term price oscillations or consolidations within the broader trend. This allows traders to potentially pinpoint entry and exit points based on temporary pullbacks or reversals.
Visualize and Adapt
The Parabolic Grid Bot acts as a visual aid, enhancing your understanding of market dynamics. It allows you to "see the curve" by adapting the grid to the market's patterns. If the market shows a parabolic shape, like an upward curve followed by a peak and a downward turn (similar to a head and shoulders pattern), adjust the Accel and Curve to match. This highlights potential areas of interest for further analysis.
Beyond Straight Lines: Visualizing Market Cycle
Traditional technical analysis often employs straight lines, such as trend lines and support/resistance levels, to interpret market movements. However, many analysts, including Brian Millard, contend that these lines can be misleading. They propose that what might appear as a straight line could represent just a small part of a larger curve or cycle that's not fully visible on the chart.
Markets are inherently cyclical, marked by phases of expansion, contraction, and reversal. The Parabolic Grid Bot acknowledges this cyclical behavior by offering a dynamic, curved grid that adapts to these shifts. This approach helps traders move beyond the limitations of straight lines and visualize potential support and resistance levels in a way that better reflects the market's true nature
By capturing these cyclical patterns, whether subtle or pronounced, the Parabolic Grid Bot offers a nuanced understanding of market dynamics, potentially leading to more accurate interpretations of price action and informed trading decisions.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER⚠️
This indicator utilizes a parabolic curve fitting approach to visualize potential support and resistance levels. The mathematical formulas employed have been designed with adaptability and scalability in mind, aiming to accommodate various assets and price ranges. While the resulting curves may visually resemble parabolas, it's important to note that they might not strictly adhere to the precise mathematical definition of a parabola.
The indicator's calculations have been tested and generally produce reliable results. However, no guarantees are made regarding their absolute mathematical accuracy. Traders are encouraged to use this tool as part of their broader analysis and decision-making process, combining it with other technical indicators and market context.
Please remember that trading involves inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is always advisable to conduct your own research and exercise prudent risk management before making any trading decisions.
🧠 BEYOND THE CODE 🧠
The Parabolic Grid Bot, like the other grid bots in this series, is designed with education and community collaboration in mind. Its open-source nature encourages exploration, experimentation, and the development of new grid trading strategies. We hope this indicator serves as a framework and a starting point for future innovations in the field of grid trading.
Your comments, suggestions, and discussions are invaluable in shaping the future of this project. We welcome your feedback and look forward to seeing how you utilize and enhance the Parabolic Grid Bot.
1% Range Bars with Sequence TableOverall Logic :
The script is designed to help traders visualize and analyze price movements on the chart, where each 1% movement is highlighted with a corresponding symbol. Additionally, the table helps track and analyze the number and length of consecutive price movements in one direction, which can be useful for identifying trends and understanding market dynamics.
This script can be particularly useful for traders looking for recurring patterns in price movements and wanting to quickly identify significant changes on the chart.
Main elements of the script :
Price Percentage Change:
The script tracks the price movement by 1% from the last significant value (the value at which the last 1% change was recorded).
If the price rises by 1% or more, a green circle is displayed above the bar.
If the price drops by 1% or more, a red circle is displayed below the bar.
Sequence Counting:
The script counts the number of consecutive 1% moves upwards (green circles) and downwards (red circles).
Separate counters are maintained for upward and downward movements, increasing each time the respective movement occurs.
If an opposite movement interrupts the sequence, the counter for the opposite direction is reset.
Sequence Table:
A table displayed on the chart shows the number of sequences of 1% movements in one direction for lengths from 1 to 15 bars.
The table is updated in real-time and shows how many times sequences of a certain length occurred on the chart, where the price moved by 1% in one direction.
Prometheus Black-Scholes Option PricesThe Black-Scholes Model is an option pricing model developed my Fischer Black and Myron Scholes in 1973 at MIT. This is regarded as the most accurate pricing model and is still used today all over the world. This script is a simulated Black-Scholes model pricing model, I will get into why I say simulated.
What is an option?
An option is the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell 100 shares of a certain stock, for calls or puts respective, at a certain price, on a certain date (assuming European style options, American options can be exercised early). The reason these agreements, these contracts exist is to provide traders with leverage. Buying 1 contract to represent 100 shares of the underlying, more often than not, at a cheaper price. That is why the price of the option, the premium , is a small number. If an option costs $1.00 we pay $100.00 for it because 100 shares * 1 dollar per share = 100 dollars for all the shares. When a trader purchases a call on stock XYZ with a strike of $105 while XYZ stock is trading at $100, if XYZ stock moves up to $110 dollars before expiration the option has $5 of intrinsic value. You have the right to buy something at $105 when it is trading at $110. That agreement is way more valuable now, as a result the options premium would increase. That is a quick overview about how options are traded, let's get into calculating them.
Inputs for the Black-Scholes model
To calculate the price of an option we need to know 5 things:
Current Price of the asset
Strike Price of the option
Time Till Expiration
Risk-Free Interest rate
Volatility
The price of a European call option 𝐶 is given by:
𝐶 = 𝑆0 * Φ(𝑑1) − 𝐾 * 𝑒^(−𝑟 * 𝑇) * Φ(𝑑2)
where:
𝑆0 is the current price of the underlying asset.
𝐾 is the strike price of the option.
𝑟 is the risk-free interest rate.
𝑇 is the time to expiration.
Φ is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution.
𝑑1 and 𝑑2 are calculated as:
𝑑1 = (ln(𝑆0 / 𝐾) + (𝑟 + (𝜎^2 / 2)) * 𝑇) / (𝜎 * sqrt(𝑇))
𝑑2= 𝑑1 - (𝜎 * sqrt(𝑇))
𝜎 is the volatility of the underlying asset.
The price of a European put option 𝑃 is given by:
𝑃 = 𝐾 * 𝑒^(−𝑟 * 𝑇) * Φ(−𝑑2) − 𝑆0 * Φ(−𝑑1)
where 𝑑1 and 𝑑2 are as defined above.
Key Assumptions of the Black-Scholes Model
The price of the underlying asset follows a lognormal distribution.
There are no transaction costs or taxes.
The risk-free interest rate and volatility of the underlying asset are constant.
The underlying asset does not pay dividends during the life of the option.
The markets are efficient, meaning that all known information is already reflected in the prices.
Options can only be exercised at expiration (European-style options).
Understanding the Script
Here I have arrows pointing to specific spots on the table. They point to Historical Volatility and Inputted DTE . Inputted DTE is a value the user may input to calculate premium for options that expire in that many days. Historical Volatility , is the value calculated by this code.
length = 252 // One year of trading days
hv = ta.stdev(math.log(close / close ), length) * math.sqrt(365)
And then made daily like the Black-Scholes model needs from this step in the code.
hv_daily = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "1D", hv)
The user has the option to input their own volatility to the Script. I will get into why that may be advantageous in a moment. If the user chooses to do so the Script will change which value it is using as so.
hv_in_use = which_sig == false ? hv_daily : sig
There is a lot going on in this image but bare with me, it will all make sense by the end. The column to the far left of both the green and maroon colored columns represent the strike price of the contract, if the numbers are white that means the contract is out of the money, gray means in the money. If you remember from the calculation this represents the price to buy or sell shares at, for calls or puts respective. The column second from the left shows a value for Simulated Market Price . This is a necessary part of this script so we can show changes in implied volatility. See, when we go to our brokerages and look at options prices, sure the price was calculated by a pricing model, but that is rarely the true price of the model. Market participant sentiment affects this value as their estimates for future volatility, Implied Volatility changes.
For example, if a call option is supposed to be worth $1.00 from the pricing model, however everyone is bullish on the stock and wants to buy calls, the premium may go to $1.20 from $1.00 because participants juice up the Implied Volatility . Higher Implied Volatility generally means higher premium, given enough time to expiration. Buying an option at $0.80 when it should be worth $1.00 due to changes in sentiment is a big part of the Quant Trading industry.
Of course I don't have access to an actual exchange so get prices, so I modeled participant decisions by adding or subtracting a small random value on the "perfect premium" from the Black-Scholes model, and solving for implied volatility using the Newton-Raphson method.
It is like when we have speed = distance / time if we know speed and time , we can solve for distance .
This is what models the changing Implied Volatility in the table. The other column in the table, 3rd from the left, is the Black-Scholes model price without the changes of a random number. Finally, the 4th column from the left is that Implied Volatility value we calculated with the modified option price.
More on Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility represents the future expected volatility of an asset. As it is the value in the future it is not know like Historical Volatility, only projected. We provide the user with the option to enter their own Implied Volatility to start with for better modeling of options close to expiration. If you want to model options 1 day from expiration you will probably have to enter a higher Implied Volatility so that way the prices will be higher. Since the underlying is so close to expiration they are traded so much and traders manipulate their Implied Volatility , increasing their value. Be safe while trading these!
Thank you all for clicking on my indicator and reading this description! Happy coding, Happy trading, Be safe!
Good reference: www.investopedia.com
Volatility and Volume by Hour EXT(Extended republication, use this instead of the old one)
The goal of this indicator is to show a “characteristic” of the instrument, regarding the price change and trading volume. You can see how the instrument “behaved” throughout the day in the lookback period. I've found this useful for timing in day trading.
The indicator creates a table on the chart to display various statistics for each hour of the day.
Important: ONLY SHOWS THE TABLE IF THE CHART’S TIMEFRAME IS 1H!
Explanation of the columns:
1. Volatility Percentage (Volat): This column shows the volatility of the price as a percentage. For example, a value of "15%" means the price movement was 15% of the total daily price movement within the hour.
2. Hourly Point Change (PointCh): This column shows the change in price points for each hour in the lookback period. For example, a value of "5" means the price has increased by 5 points in the hour, while "-3" means it has decreased by 3 points.
3. Hourly Point Change Percentage (PrCh% (LeverageX)): This column shows the percentage change in price points for each hour, adjusted with leverage multiplier. Displayed green (+) or red (-) accordingly. For example, a value of "10%" with a leverage of 2X means the price has effectively changed by 5% due to the leverage.
4. Trading Volume Percentage (TrVol): This column shows the percentage of the daily total volume that was traded in a specific hour. For example, a value of "10%" would mean that 10% of the day's total trading volume occurred in that hour.
5. Added New! - Relevancy Check: The indicator checks the last 24 candle. If the direction of the price movement was the same in the last 24 hour as the statistical direction in that hour, the background of the relevant hour in the second column goes green.
For example: if today at 9 o'clock the price went lower, so as at 9 o'clock in the loopback period, the instrument "behaves" according to statistics . So the statistics is probably more relevant for today. The more green background row the more relevancy.
Settings:
1. Lookback period: The lookback period is the number of previous bars from which data is taken to perform calculations. In this script, it's used in a loop that iterates over a certain number of past bars to calculate the statistics. TIP: Select a period the contains a trend in one direction, because an upward and a downward trend compensate the price movement in opposite directions.
2. Timezone: This is a string input that represents the user's timezone. The default value is "UTC+2". Adjust it to your timezone in order to view the hours properly.
3. Leverage: The default value is 10(!). This input is used to adjust the hourly point change percentage. For FOREX traders (for example) the statistics can show the leveraged percentage of price change. Set that according the leverage you trade the instrument with.
Use at your own risk, provided “as is” basis!
Hope you find it useful! Cheers!
Market Cipher B by WeloTradesMarket Cipher B by WeloTrades: Detailed Script Description
//Overview//
"Market Cipher B by WeloTrades" is an advanced trading tool that combines multiple technical indicators to provide a comprehensive market analysis framework. By integrating WaveTrend, RSI, and MoneyFlow indicators, this script helps traders to better identify market trends, potential reversals, and trading opportunities. The script is designed to offer a holistic view of the market by combining the strengths of these individual indicators.
//Key Features and Originality//
WaveTrend Analysis:
WaveTrend Channel (WT1 and WT2): The core of this script is the WaveTrend indicator, which uses the smoothed average of typical price to identify overbought and oversold conditions. WT1 and WT2 are calculated to track market momentum and cyclical price movements.
Major Divergences (🐮/🐻): The script detects and highlights major bullish and bearish divergences automatically, providing traders with visual cues for potential reversals. This helps in making informed decisions based on divergence patterns.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI Levels: RSI is used to measure the speed and change of price movements, with specific levels indicating overbought and oversold conditions.
Customizable Levels: Users can configure the overbought and oversold thresholds, allowing for a tailored analysis based on individual trading strategies.
MoneyFlow Indicator:
Fast and Slow MoneyFlow: This indicator tracks the flow of capital into and out of the market, offering insights into the underlying market strength. It includes configurable periods and multipliers for both fast and slow MoneyFlow.
Vertical Positioning: The script allows users to adjust the vertical position of MoneyFlow plots to maintain a clear and uncluttered chart.
Stochastic RSI:
Stochastic RSI Levels: This combines the RSI and Stochastic indicators to provide a momentum oscillator that is sensitive to price changes. It is used to identify overbought and oversold conditions within a specified period.
Customizable Levels: Traders can set specific levels for more precise analysis.
//How It Works//
The script integrates these indicators through advanced algorithms, creating a synergistic effect that enhances market analysis. Here’s a detailed explanation of the underlying concepts and calculations:
WaveTrend Indicator:
Calculation: WaveTrend is based on the typical price (average of high, low, and close) smoothed over a specified channel length. WT1 and WT2 are derived from this typical price and further smoothed using the Average Channel Length. The difference between WT1 and WT2 indicates momentum, helping to identify cyclical market trends.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Calculation: RSI calculates the average gains and losses over a specified period to measure the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between 0 and 100, with levels set to identify overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) conditions.
MoneyFlow Indicator:
Calculation: MoneyFlow is derived by multiplying price changes by volume and smoothing the results over specified periods. Fast MoneyFlow reacts quickly to price changes, while Slow MoneyFlow offers a broader view of capital movement trends.
Stochastic RSI:
Calculation: Stochastic RSI is computed by applying the Stochastic formula to RSI values, which highlights the RSI’s relative position within its range over a given period. This helps in identifying momentum shifts more precisely.
//How to Use the Script//
Display Settings:
Users can enable or disable various components like WaveTrend OB & OS levels, MoneyFlow plots, and divergence alerts through checkboxes.
Example: Turn on "Show Major Divergence" to see major bullish and bearish divergence signals directly on the chart.
Adjust Channel Settings:
Customize the data source, channel length, and smoothing periods in the "WaveTrend Channel SETTINGS" group.
Example: Set the "Channel Length" to 10 for a more responsive WaveTrend line or adjust the "Average Channel Length" to 21 for smoother trends.
Set Overbought & Oversold Levels:
Configure levels for WaveTrend, RSI, and Stochastic RSI in their respective settings groups.
Example: Set the WaveTrend Overbought Level to 60 and Oversold Level to -60 to define critical thresholds.
Money Flow Settings:
Adjust the periods and multipliers for Fast and Slow MoneyFlow indicators, and set their vertical positions for better visualization.
Example: Set the Fast Money Flow Period to 9 and Slow Money Flow Period to 12 to capture both short-term and long-term capital movements.
//Justification for Combining Indicators//
Enhanced Market Analysis:
Combining WaveTrend, RSI, and MoneyFlow provides a more comprehensive view of market conditions. Each indicator brings a unique perspective, making the analysis more robust.
WaveTrend identifies cyclical trends, RSI measures momentum, and MoneyFlow tracks capital movement. Together, they provide a multi-dimensional analysis of the market.
Improved Decision-Making:
By integrating these indicators, the script helps traders make more informed decisions. For example, a bullish divergence detected by WaveTrend might be validated by an RSI moving out of oversold territory and supported by increasing MoneyFlow.
Customization and Flexibility:
The script offers extensive customization options, allowing traders to tailor it to their specific needs and strategies. This flexibility makes it suitable for different trading styles and timeframes.
//Conclusion//
The indicator stands out due to its innovative combination of WaveTrend, RSI, and MoneyFlow indicators, offering a well-rounded tool for market analysis. By understanding how each component works and how they complement each other, traders can leverage this script to enhance their market analysis and trading strategies, making more informed and confident decisions.
Remember to always backtest the indicator first before implying it to your strategy.
LSMA Z-Score [BackQuant]LSMA Z-Score
Main Features and Use in the Trading Strategy
- The indicator normalizes the LSMA into a detrended Z-Score, creating an oscillator with standard deviation levels to indicate trend strength.
- Adaptive coloring highlights the rate of change and potential reversals, with different colors for positive and negative changes above and below the midline.
- Extreme levels with adaptive coloring indicate the probability of a reversion, providing strategic entry or exit points.
- Alert conditions for crossing the midline or significant shifts in trend direction enhance its utility within a trading strategy.
1. What is an LSMA?
The Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) is a technical indicator that smoothens price data to help identify trends. It uses the least squares regression method to fit a straight line through the selected price points over a specified period. This approach minimizes the sum of the squares of the distances between the line and the price points, providing a more statistically grounded moving average that can adapt more smoothly to price changes.
2. What is a Z-Score?
A Z-Score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values, measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. If a Z-Score is 0, it indicates that the data point's score is identical to the mean score. A Z-Score helps in understanding if a data point is typical for a given data set or if it is atypical. In finance, a Z-Score is often used to measure how far a piece of data is from the average of a set, which can be helpful in identifying outliers or unusual data points.
3. Why Turning LSMA into a Z-Score is Innovative and Its Benefits
Converting LSMA into a Z-Score is innovative because it combines the trend identification capabilities of the LSMA with the statistical significance testing of Z-Scores. This transformation normalizes the LSMA, creating a detrended oscillator that oscillates around a mean (zero line), with standard deviation levels to show trend strength. This method offers several benefits:
Enhanced Trend Detection:
- By normalizing the LSMA, traders can more easily identify when the price is deviating significantly from its trend, which can signal potential trading opportunities.
Standardization:
- The Z-Score transformation allows for comparisons across different assets or time frames, as the score is standardized.
Objective Measurement of Trend Strength:
- The use of standard deviation levels provides an objective measure of trend strength and volatility.
4. How It Can Be Used in the Context of a Trading System
This indicator can serve as a versatile tool within a trading system for a range of things:
Trend Confirmation:
- A positive Z-Score can confirm an uptrend, while a negative Z-Score can confirm a downtrend, providing traders with signals to enter or exit trades.
Oversold/Overbought Conditions:
- Extreme Z-Score levels can indicate overbought or oversold conditions, suggesting potential reversals or pullbacks.
Volatility Assessment:
- The standard deviation levels can help traders assess market volatility, with wider bands indicating higher volatility.
5. How It Can Be Used for Trend Following
For trend following strategies, this indicator can be particularly useful:
Trend Strength Indicator:
- By monitoring the Z-Score's distance from zero, traders can gauge the strength of the current trend, with larger absolute values indicating stronger trends.
Directional Bias:
- Positive Z-Scores can be used to establish a bullish bias, while negative Z-Scores can establish a bearish bias, guiding trend following entries and exits.
Color-Coding for Trend Changes :
- The adaptive coloring of the indicator based on the rate of change and extreme levels provides visual cues for potential trend reversals or continuations.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
This is using the Midline Crossover:
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Commitments of Traders Report [Advanced]This indicator displays the Commitment of Traders (COT) report data in a clear, table format similar to an Excel spreadsheet, with additional functionalities to analyze open interest and position changes. The COT report, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), provides valuable insights into market sentiment by revealing the positioning of various trader categories.
Display:
Release Date: When the data was released.
Open Interest: Shows the total number of open contracts for the underlying instrument held by selected trader category.
Net Contracts: Shows the difference between long and short positions for selected trader category.
Long/Short OI: Displays the long and short positions held by selected trader category.
Change in Long/Short OI: Displays the change in long and short positions since the previous reporting period. This can highlight buying or selling pressure.
Long & Short Percentage: Displays the percentage of total long and short positions held by each category.
Trader Categories (Configurable)
Commercials: Hedgers who use futures contracts to manage risk associated with their underlying business (e.g., producers, consumers).
Non-Commercials (Large Speculators): Speculative traders with large positions who aim to profit from price movements (e.g., hedge funds, investment banks).
Non-Reportable (Small Speculators/Retail Traders): Smaller traders with positions below the CFTC reporting thresholds.
CFTC Code: If the indicator fails to retrieve data, you can manually enter the CFTC code for the specific instrument. The code for instrument can be found on CFTC's website.
Using the Indicator Effectively
Market Sentiment Gauge: Analyze the positioning of each trader category to gauge overall market sentiment.
High net longs by commercials might indicate a bullish outlook, while high net shorts could suggest bearish sentiment.
Changes in open interest and long/short positions can provide additional insights into buying and selling pressure.
Trend Confirmation: Don't rely solely on COT data for trade signals. Use it alongside price action and other technical indicators for confirmation.
Identify Potential Turning Points: Extreme readings in COT data, combined with significant changes in open interest or positioning, might precede trend reversals, but exercise caution and combine with other analysis tools.
Disclaimer
Remember, the COT report is just one piece of the puzzle. It should not be used for making isolated trading decisions. Consider incorporating it into a comprehensive trading strategy that factors in other technical and fundamental analysis.
Credit
A big shoutout to Nick from Transparent FX ! His expertise and thoughtful analysis have been a major inspiration in developing this COT Report indicator. To know more about this indicator and how to use it, be sure to check out his work.
Altcoin ManagerThe Altcoin Manager is a comprehensive script for identifying the current altcoin narrative by tracking and analyzing of a wide array of altcoins across various blockchain layers and categories, such as DeFi, GameFi, AI, and Meme coins. Ideal for traders looking to get a broad yet detailed view of the altcoin market, covering various sectors and chains.
The Key Features:
Versatile Asset Tracking:
Tracks 40 different cryptocurrencies (as of publishing) across different categories, allowing for a diversified and detailed analysis of the altcoin market.
Customizable Assets and Category Analysis:
Select 20 of your own coins across 4 different categories such as DeFi, GameFi, AI, and Meme coins as well as specifying their individual chains.
Dynamic Layer and Chain Analysis:
Includes options to plot and analyze specific blockchain layers and chains such as Ethereum Chain, Solana Chain, BNB Smart Chain, Arbitrum Chain, and Polygon Chain. The script associates various assets with specific blockchains, providing a clearer picture of how different segments of the altcoin market are performing.
Cumulative and Per-Candle Change:
Switch between viewing the total cumulative change since a set start date or the per-candle change, offering flexibility in analyzing price movements over different timeframes.
Denomination Adjustment:
Includes a functionality to denominate asset prices in other currencies or crypto such as BTC, allowing for a more tailored financial analysis according to your preference.
Moving Averages for Categories and Chains:
Calculates and plots moving averages for each category and chain, aiding in the identification of trends over the selected moving average length.
How do I use it?
This script is not used with any particular chart. Instead, assign it it's own tab and layout.
For a clearer analysis, use multiple different panels to track Categories and Chains separately, both Cumulative for a longer term analysis and Per-Candle to find ongoing breakouts and changes in trend.
You can either use the pre-selected altcoins to represent the market, or you can select your own.
The Layer 1 and Layer 2 are not customizable but consists of 15 popular Layer 1 incl Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana etc. Layer 2 consists of 5 popular Layer 2.
Trend Strength Over TimeThe script serves as an indicator designed to assess and visualize trend strength and Volume strength over time. It employs a variety of calculations and conditions to offer insights into both bullish and bearish market trends. Let's explore the key conceptual elements of the code.
Trend Strength Conditions:
The script defines conditions to assess trend strength based on a comparison between each calculated percentile value and the highest high (bullish) or lowest low (bearish). Separate conditions are established for each percentile length, allowing for a nuanced understanding of trend dynamics across different timeframes.
Counting Bull and Bear Trends:
To quantify the strength of bullish and bearish trends, the script maintains counts for the number of conditions that are true for each. This count-based approach provides a quantitative measure of trend strength.
Weak Bull and Bear Counts:
Recognizing that trends are not always clear-cut, the script introduces the concept of weak trends. It counts instances where the percentiles fall between the highest high and lowest low, indicating a potential weakening of the prevailing trend.
Bull and Bear Strength:
Bull and bear strengths are calculated based on the counts, with adjustments made for weak trends. This step provides a more nuanced and comprehensive assessment of trend strength by considering both strong and weak signals.
Current Trend Value:
The culmination of these calculations is the determination of the current trend value. This value represents the balance between bullish and bearish forces, offering a dynamic indicator of the market's prevailing sentiment.
Volume Strength Calculation:
In addition to price-based indicators, the script incorporates volume strength as a crucial element. This is calculated using the simple moving averages (SMAs) of volume over different lengths, normalized relative to the SMA over a length of 144. Volume strength adds a layer of confirmation or divergence to the price-based trend analysis.
Color Change:
To facilitate quick and intuitive interpretation, the script dynamically changes the color of the plotted line on the chart based on the current trend value. Green indicates a bullish trend, red indicates a bearish trend, and blue suggests a neutral or indecisive market.
Plotting:
The script uses the plot function to visually present the calculated trend strength and volume strength on the chart. This visual representation aids traders in making informed decisions based on the identified trends and their strengths.
Volume Strength: A Detailed Explanation
In the context of the provided script, volume strength is a critical component used to assess the strength of a market trend. It provides insights into the level of participation and commitment of market participants, offering a complementary perspective to traditional price-based indicators. Let's delve into the concept and practical applications of volume strength.
Calculation of Volume Strength:
The script calculates volume strength by considering the simple moving averages (SMAs) of volume over different time periods (13, 21, 34, 55, 89). These individual SMAs are then normalized relative to the SMA over a more extended period of 144. The weights assigned to each SMA in the calculation are defined in the variable VCF (Volume Correction Factor).
Calculation of Volume Strength with Weights: The weights assigned to each SMA in this calculation are crucial for emphasizing the significance of shorter-term volume movements relative to a longer-term baseline.
Interpretation of Weights:
The choice of weights reflects the relative importance of shorter-term volume movements compared to longer-term trends. In this script, shorter-term SMAs (13, 21, 34, 55, 89) are assigned decreasing weights, while the longer-term SMA (144) serves as the baseline.
Shorter-term SMAs with higher weights may have a more immediate impact on the volume strength calculation. This implies that recent changes in volume carry more weight in assessing the current market conditions.
The decreasing weights for shorter-term SMAs might indicate that, as the timeframe lengthens, the significance of recent volume movements diminishes in relation to the longer-term trend. This approach allows for a focus on both short-term volatility and longer-term stability in volume patterns.
The purpose of normalization is to emphasize the current volume's significance in comparison to its historical context. This can help identify abnormal volume spikes or sustained increases in trading activity, which may indicate the strength or weakness of a trend.
Interpretation and Practical Use:
Confirmation of Trend:
Rising volume during an uptrend can validate the strength of the upward movement, suggesting that a significant number of market participants are actively buying. Conversely, decreasing volume during an uptrend might indicate weakening interest and a potential reversal.
In a downtrend, increasing volume on downward price movements reinforces the strength of the trend. A decrease in volume during a downtrend may suggest a potential weakening or exhaustion of the downward momentum.
Divergence Analysis:
Divergence occurs when there is a disagreement between the price movement and the corresponding volume. For example, if prices are rising but volume is declining, it could signal a lack of conviction in the upward movement, and a reversal might be imminent.
Conversely, if prices are falling, but volume is decreasing as well, it might suggest that the downward momentum is losing steam, and a potential reversal or consolidation could be on the horizon.
In conclusion, volume strength analysis provides traders with a powerful tool to gauge the conviction behind price movements. By incorporating volume data into the technical analysis, one can make more informed decisions, enhance trend identification, and improve risk management strategies.
