BTC Power Law [Financial 6-Pack | @itsToghrul]A clean, research-grade roadmap for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. The script fits a power-law curve to INDEX:BTCUSD price vs. days since genesis, adds asymmetric deviation bands to reflect diminishing upside, and can project the path forward while keeping chart clutter under control. A compact stats table shows model fit quality, live deviation, and model prices for a custom future date.
What it does
- Plots a base power-law model of BTC price over time.
- Adds an upper band that decays over time to capture diminishing returns, with multiple decay options.
- Adds a lower band as a fixed multiple to frame downside risk.
- Optionally boosts cycle peaks with Gaussian “bumps” to reflect halving-cycle dynamics.
- Draws dashed forward projections for the base line and bands over a user-defined horizon.
Displays a stats table with:
- Rolling R² of model vs. price (in log space) over a user-defined lookback.
- Current % deviation from the base model.
- Model, upper, and lower prices for a custom date you set.
Key features
- Five upper-band modes: Fixed, Exponential, Power-law, Stretched Exponential (Weibull), and Logistic/Hill. Each mode has intuitive controls for steepness, midpoint, floor, and reference scales.
- Cycle peak enhancer: Optional Gaussian sum with per-cycle decay, width, and period controls, plus an optional cosine modulation.
- Future projection controls: Choose the forward horizon in days and a sampling step to balance precision vs. performance. Projections render as transparent dashed lines to avoid clutter.
- Lightweight rendering: Internal caps on line segments keep drawings responsive without losing structure.
- Custom-date pricing: Build a date/time from parts and read off model, upper, and lower prices in the table.
- Transparent fit metric: Rolling R² in log space offers a quick quality check for the current regime.
Inputs overview
- Future projection: On/off, horizon (days), and sampling step.
- Colors: Base line and band colors with separate transparency for projections.
- Upper deviation: Mode selector plus parameters for decay shape, floor, reference scale, or midpoint/steepness, depending on mode.
- Lower deviation: Single fixed multiple with color.
- Gaussian peaks (optional): Amplitude base, cycle width, period, first-peak center, per-cycle decay, number of cycles, and optional cosine modulation.
- Stats: Rolling R² lookback length.
- Custom date: Year, month, day, hour, minute for quick scenario checks.
How to read it
- Base line: Long-term fair-value trend under a power-law regime.
- Upper band: Probable cycle top envelope that compresses over time. Switching modes changes how quickly headroom fades.
- Lower band: Defensive envelope for stress scenarios.
- Deviation %: Positive values signal overvaluation vs. model; negative values signal undervaluation vs. model.
- Custom date row: Quick “what-if” prices for your chosen timestamp.
Practical tips
- Use log scale on the price chart for visual clarity.
- For conservative tops, select Logistic/Hill or Stretched Exp with a non-trivial floor.
- For aggressive tops, use Power-law upper mode with a moderate exponent, then temper with the Gaussian enhancer.
- Keep the projection step coarse on lower-power machines to maintain snappy charts.
- Treat R² as a diagnostic, not a signal. Markets drift around regime shifts.
Intended use
Research and risk framing for BTC on higher timeframes. Works best on weekly or higher with reliable BTC spot pairs.
Disclaimer
Educational content only. No financial advice. Markets carry risk. Manage exposure and test ideas before acting.
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Mancin Bitcoin CorrelationMancin Bitcoin Correlation
This indicator calculates the correlation coefficient between a selected asset and Bitcoin (default: BYBIT:BTCUSDT) over a specified period, and visualizes it as a line or columns with a dynamic color gradient.
Features:
Correlation values range from -1 (inverse relationship) to +1 (strong direct relationship).
Gradient fill changes intensity based on correlation strength:
Positive correlation uses the “high correlation” color.
Negative correlation uses the “low correlation” color.
Fully customizable:
Colors for positive and negative correlation.
Base transparency.
Gradient strength (sensitivity of transparency to correlation changes).
Correlation length.
Line style and color (Line or Columns).
Use cases:
Track how closely your asset moves with Bitcoin.
Spot moments when the asset starts moving in sync or diverging from BTC.
Useful for pair trading, arbitrage strategies, and assessing BTC’s market influence.
Trend Strength Index [Alpha Extract]The Trend Strength Index leverages Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) and Average True Range (ATR) to quantify trend intensity in cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin. The combination of VWMA and ATR is particularly powerful because VWMA provides a more accurate representation of the market's true average price by weighting periods of higher trading volume more heavily—capturing genuine momentum driven by increased participation rather than treating all price action equally, which is crucial in volatile assets like Bitcoin where volume spikes often signal institutional interest or market shifts.
Meanwhile, ATR normalizes this measurement for volatility, ensuring that trend strength readings remain comparable across different market conditions; without ATR's adjustment, raw price deviations from the mean could appear artificially inflated during high-volatility periods (like during news events or liquidations) or understated in low-volatility sideways markets, leading to misleading signals. Together, they create a volatility-adjusted, volume-sensitive metric that reliably distinguishes between meaningful trend developments and noise.
This indicator measures the normalized distance between price and its volume-weighted mean, providing a clear visualization of trend strength while accounting for market volatility. It helps traders identify periods of strong directional movement versus consolidation, with color-coded gradients for intuitive interpretation.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator processes price data through these analytical stages:
Volume Weighted Moving Average: Computes a smoothed average weighted by trading volume
Volatility Normalization: Uses ATR to account for market volatility
Distance Measurement: Calculates absolute deviation between current price and VWMA
Strength Normalization: Divides price deviation by ATR for a volatility-adjusted metric
Formula:
VWMA = Volume-Weighted Moving Average of Close over specified length
ATR = Average True Range over specified length
Price Distance = |Close - VWMA|
Trend Strength = Price Distance / ATR
🔶 DETAILS Visual Features:
VWMA Line: Blue line overlay on the price chart representing the volume-weighted mean
Trend Strength Area: Histogram-style area plot with dynamic color gradient (red for weak trends, transitioning through orange and yellow to green for strong trends)
Threshold Line: Horizontal red line at the customizable Trend Enter level
Background Highlight: Subtle green background when trend strength exceeds the enter threshold for strong trend visualization
Alert System: Triggers notifications for strong trend detection
Interpretation:
0-Weak (Red): Minimal trend strength, potential consolidation or ranging market
Mid-Range (Orange/Yellow): Building momentum, watch for breakout potential
At/Above Enter Threshold (Green): Strong trend conditions, potential for continued directional moves
Threshold Crossing: Trend strength crossing above the enter level signals increasing conviction in the current direction
Color Transitions: Gradual shifts from warm (red/orange) to cool (green) tones indicate strengthening trends
🔶 EXAMPLES
Strong Trend Entry: When trend strength crosses above the enter threshold (e.g., 1.2), it identifies the onset of a powerful move where price deviates significantly from the mean.
Example: During a rally, trend strength rising from yellow (around 1.0) to green (1.2+) often precedes sustained upward momentum, providing entry opportunities for trend followers.
Consolidation Detection: Low trend strength values in red shades (below 0.5) highlight periods of low volatility and mean reversion potential.
Example: After a sharp sell-off, persistent red values signal a likely sideways phase, allowing traders to avoid whipsaws and wait for orange/yellow transitions as a precursor to recovery.
Volatility-Adjusted Pullbacks: In volatile markets, the ATR component ensures trend strength remains accurate; a dip back to yellow from green during minor corrections can indicate healthy pullbacks within a strong trend.
Example: Trend strength briefly falling to yellow levels (e.g., 0.8-1.1) after hitting green provides profit-taking signals without invalidating the overall bullish bias if the VWMA holds as support.
Threshold Alert Integration: The alert condition combines strength value with the enter threshold for timely notifications.
Example: Receiving a "Strong Trend Detected" alert when the area plot turns green helps confirm Bitcoin's breakout from consolidation, aligning with increased volume for higher-probability trades.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options:
Lengths: VWMA length (default 14), ATR length (default 14)
Thresholds: Trend enter (default 1.2, step 0.1), trend exit (default 1.15, for potential future signal enhancements)
Visuals: Automatic color scaling with red at 0, transitioning to green at/above enter threshold
Alert Conditions: Strong trend detection (when strength > enter)
The Trend Strength Index equips traders with a robust, easy-to-interpret tool for gauging trend intensity in volatile markets like Bitcoin. By normalizing price deviations against volatility, it delivers reliable signals for identifying high-momentum opportunities while the gradient coloring and alerts facilitate quick assessments in both trending and choppy conditions.
TFPS - TradFi Pressure ScoreThe Data-Driven Answer to a New Market Reality.
This indicator quantifies the pressure exerted by Wall Street on the crypto market across four critical dimensions: Risk Appetite, Fear, Liquidity Flows, and the Opportunity Cost of Capital. Our research has found that the correlation between this 4-dimensional pressure vector and crypto price action reaches peak values of 0.87. This is your decisive macro edge, delivered in real-time.
The Irreversible Transformation
A fundamental analysis of the last five years of market data proves an irreversible transformation: The crypto market has matured into a high-beta risk asset, its fate now inextricably linked to Traditional Finance (TradFi).
The empirical data is clear:
Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a leveraged version of the S&P 500.
The correlation to major stock indices is statistically significant and persistent.
The "digital gold" narrative is refuted by the data; the correlation to gold is virtually non-existent.
This means standard technical indicators are no longer sufficient. Tools like RSI or MACD are blind to the powerful, external macro context that now dominates price action. They see the effect, but not the cause.
The Solution: A 4-Dimensional Macro-Lens
The TradFi Pressure Score (TFPS) is the answer. It is an institutional-grade dashboard that aggregates the four most dominant external forces into a single, actionable score:
S&P 500 (SPY): The Pulse of Risk Appetite. A rising S&P signals a "risk-on" environment, fueling capital flows into crypto.
VIX: The Market's Fear Gauge. A rising VIX signals a "risk-off" flight to safety, draining liquidity from crypto.
DXY (US-Dollar Index): The Anchor of Global Liquidity. A strong Dollar (rising DXY) tightens financial conditions, creating powerful headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.
US 10Y Yield: The Opportunity Cost of Capital. Rising yields make risk-free assets more attractive, pulling capital away from non-yielding assets like crypto.
What makes the TFPS truly unique?
1. Dynamic Weighting (The Secret Weapon):
Which macro factor matters most right now? Is it a surging Dollar or a collapsing stock market? The TFPS answers this automatically. It continuously analyzes the correlation of all four components to your chosen asset (e.g., Bitcoin) and adjusts their influence in real-time. The dashboard shows you the exact live weights, ensuring you are always focused on the factor that is currently driving the market.
2. Adaptive Engine:
The forces driving a 15-minute chart are different from those driving a daily chart. The TFPS engine automatically recalibrates its internal lookback periods to your chosen timeframe. This ensures the score is always optimally relevant, whether you are a day trader or a swing trader.
3. Designed for Actionable Insights
The Pressure Line: The indicator's core output. Is its value > 0 (tailwind) or < 0 (headwind)? This provides an instant, unambiguous read on the macro environment for your trade.
The Z-Score (The Contrarian Signal): The background "Stress Cloud" and the discrete dots provide early warnings of extreme macro greed or fear. Readings above +2 or below -2 have historically pinpointed moments of market exhaustion that often precede major trend reversals.
Lead/Lag Status: Gain a critical edge by knowing who is in the driver's seat. The dashboard tells you if TradFi is leading the price action or if crypto is moving independently, allowing you to validate your trade thesis against the dominant market force.
This is a public indicator with protected source code
Access is now available for traders who understand the new market reality at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance.
You are among the first to leverage what is a new standard for macro analysis in crypto trading. Your feedback is highly valued as I continue to refine this tool.
Follow for updates and trade with the full context!
TFPS - TradFi-Pressure-Score (Adaptive)The data-driven answer to an irreversible market reality.
This indicator quantifies the combined pressure from the S&P 500, VIX, DXY, and US10Y, whose correlation to crypto has reached peak values of 0.87. Your decisive macro edge, in real-time.
This indicator is built on a fundamental analysis of market data from the last five years. The analysis proves an irreversible transformation: The crypto market has evolved into a high-beta risk asset, its fate inextricably linked to Traditional Finance (TradFi).
The empirical data is clear:
Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a leveraged version of the S&P 500.
The correlation to stock indices, with peak values of up to 0.87, is statistically highly significant.
The "digital gold" safe-haven narrative is refuted by the data; the correlation to gold (0.04) is virtually non-existent and statistically insignificant.
This means: Standard indicators like RSI or MACD are insufficient for today's market conditions. They only see price, ignoring the powerful external context that now dominates price action.
The TradFi Pressure Score (TFPS) is the answer to this data-driven reality. It's your institutional-grade macro dashboard, aggregating the four most dominant external forces into a single, actionable score:
S&P 500 (SPY): The pulse of global risk appetite. A rising S&P signals a "risk-on" environment, fueling capital flows into crypto.
VIX: The market's "Fear Gauge". A rising VIX signals a "risk-off" flight to safety, draining liquidity from crypto.
DXY (US-Dollar Index): The counter-pole to risk assets. A strong Dollar (rising DXY) tightens global liquidity, creating significant headwinds for Bitcoin.
US 10Y Yield: The opportunity cost of capital. Rising yields make risk-free assets more attractive, pulling capital away from non-yielding assets like crypto.
What makes TFPS truly unique?
Dynamic Weighting (its secret weapon): Which factor matters most today? The DXY or the VIX? TFPS continuously analyzes the correlation of all four factors to your chosen asset (e.g., Bitcoin) and automatically adjusts their weight in real-time. This ensures you're always focused on what's currently driving the market.
Adaptive Engine : What drives a 15-minute chart is different from a daily chart. The TFPS engine automatically adapts its lookback periods and calculations to your chosen timeframe for optimal relevance.
Clear, Actionable Signals Designed for Traders:
Pressure Line (>0 or <0): Instantly see if the world's largest financial forces are providing a tailwind or a headwind for your trade.
Z-Score (Extreme Readings) : Get early warnings of extreme macro "Greed" or "Fear". Readings above +2 or below -2 have historically pinpointed moments of market exhaustion that often precede major trend reversals.
Regime Change : A fundamental shift in the nature of TradFi pressure is visualized with a clear signal, providing unambiguous macro insights.
Lead/Lag Status : Gain a critical edge by knowing who's in the driver's seat. The dashboard tells you if TradFi is LEADING the price action or if crypto is moving independently, allowing you to focus on the right information source.
This is a private beta. I am granting exclusive access to a limited number of traders who understand this new market reality. In exchange for your valuable feedback, you will be among the first to leverage what I believe is the new standard for macro analysis in crypto trading.
Request access to trade with the full context.
Degen Screener – ALTs vs. BTCDegen Screener – ALTs vs. BTC
🛠️ What This Script Does:
This multi-asset screener monitors up to 10 cryptocurrencies and compares their RSI strength relative to Bitcoin (BTC) — acting like BTC is the "north star." It's perfect for catching early shifts in momentum across the crypto market.
🎨 Color Logic:
RSI Column:
RSI < 30 → Green (oversold)
RSI > 70 → Red (overbought)
In between → Gray
Relative RSI Column:
0 → Green (stronger than BTC)
< 0 → Red (weaker than BTC)
Trend Column:
🤑 → Bullish shift (green background)
🖕 → Bearish shift (red background)
🔔 Alert Conditions:
Alerts fire when all three of these are true:
RSI is below 30 (oversold)
The asset is stronger than BTC
Momentum is turning bullish (🤑)
Perfect for spotting early reversals in oversold altcoins.
✅ How to Use:
Add the script to any chart (doesn’t matter which asset)
Customize the list of up to 10 symbols
Set your timeframe
Enable the alert condition: Relative RSI Signal
💡 Notes:
Script runs on whatever chart you’re on, but it pulls data from the 10 assets you select on your indicator.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This tool is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Copper to Bitcoin RatioRatio: Divides copper price by Bitcoin price (copper / bitcoin). Since copper is in USD per pound and Bitcoin is in USD, the ratio is unitless but reflects copper’s value relative to Bitcoin.
Plotting: The ratio is plotted as a blue line, with an optional 20-period simple moving average (red line) for smoothing.
This can reflect market sentiment (e.g., industrial demand vs. crypto speculation).
Long-Term VWAP Mean Reversion SDCACore Idea:
This indicator is designed to support Strategic Dollar Cost Averaging (SDCA) for Bitcoin using a cumulative VWAP-based mean reversion model. It helps long-term investors identify high-conviction buy zones and overbought conditions using statistical deviation from the cumulative VWAP. This indicator evaluates how much price is stretched from the true market average price, weighted by cumulative volume over time.
Core Concepts and Formulas:
Cumulative VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price):
VWAP cumulative = ∑(Price×Volume) / ∑Volume
A long-term anchor that reflects the average dollar cost of all market participants across all candles. This version does not reset daily, unlike intraday VWAP.
VWAP Deviation % :
Deviation% = Price - VWAP cumulative / VWAP cumulative x 100
Shows how far current price has diverged from the long-term fair value.
Z-Score of VWAP Deviation:
Z= (Price−VWAP)−μ / σ (lookback period: default 200)
SDCA Multiplier Mapping:
*Keep in mind in my Z-Score system, -2 represents the overbought level (white horizontal line) and +2 represents oversold (cyan horizontal line) conditions. So the scores on the Y axis and Z-score in the table are reversed.
| Z-Score Range | SDCA Multiplier |
---------------------------------------------
| ≤ -2 | 0.25×
| -1 to +1 | 1.0×
| > +2 | 2.0×
The pink line plots this multiplier. It’s meant to control buy weight at each time step.
How to Use This for SDCA:
-Buy normally when the multiplier is 1.0× (Z-score between -1 and +1)
-Accelerate buying when Z-score is deeply negative (price far below VWAP)
-Slow or pause buying when Z-score is high (price far above VWAP)
-Use the stats panel to track current Z-score, VWAP level, deviation %, and multiplier
-Watch the red/blue backgrounds as visual confirmation of oversold/overbought zones
Inputs:
Z-Score Lookback Length:
Default: 200 but can be adjusted.
Visuals:
Z-Score Line (cyan): shows current standardized deviation from VWAP
Multiplier Line (bright pink): your SDCA intensity signal
Background Zones: cyan = oversold, white = overbought
Horizontal Lines: +2 and -2 standard deviation thresholds
Stats Panel (bottom right): live values for Z-score, multiplier, price, VWAP, and the deviation formula
Suited For:
-Long-term Bitcoin investors
-SDCA Systems
-Mean reversion systems
-Macro-level buy/sell planning
Global M2 YoY % Increase signalThe script produces a signal each time the global M2 increases more than 2.5%. This usually coincides with bitcoin prices pumps, except when it is late in the business cycle or the bitcoin price / halving cycle.
It leverages dylanleclair Global M2 YoY % change, with several modifications:
adding a 10 week lead at the YoY Change plot for better visibility, so that the bitcoin pump moreless coincides with the YoY change.
signal increases > 2.5 in Global M2 at the point at which they occur with a green triangle up.
Global M2 [BizFing]MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN ECONOMICS:USM2
This is an indicator designed to show the correlation between the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin.
This indicator basically provides a Global M2 index by summing the M2 money supply data from the United States, South Korea, China, Japan, the EU, and the United Kingdom.
Furthermore, it is configured to allow you to add or remove the M2 data of desired countries within the settings.
I hope this proves to be a small aid in predicting the future price of Bitcoin.
If you have any questions or require any improvements while using it, please feel free to contact me.
Thank you.
BTC Price-Volume Efficiency Z-Score (PVER-Z)Overview:
This PVER-Z Score measures Bitcoin’s price movement efficiency relative to trading volume, normalized using a Z-Score over a long-term 200-day period.
It highlights statistically rare inefficiencies, helping investors spot extreme accumulation and distribution zones for systematic SDCA strategies.
Concept:
- Measures how efficiently price has moved relative to the volume that supported it over a long historical window (Default 200 days) but can be adjustable.
- It compares cumulative price changes vs cumulative volume flow.
- Then normalizes those inefficiencies using Z-Score statistics.
How It Works:
1. Calculates the absolute daily price change divided by volume (price-volume efficiency ratio).
2. Applies EMA smoothing to remove noisy fluctuations.
3. Normalizes the result into a Z-Score to detect statistically significant outliers.
4. Plots dynamic heatmap colors as the efficiency score moves through different deviation zones.
5. Background fills appear when the Z-Score moves beyond ±2 to ±3 SD, signaling rare macro opportunities.
Why is Bitcoin price rising while PVER-Z is falling toward green zone?
1. PVER-Z is not just "price" — it's price change relative to volume. PVER-Z measures how efficient the price movement is relative to volume. It's not "price going up" or "price going down" directly. It's how unusual or inefficient the price versus volume relationship is, compared to its historical average.
2. A rising Bitcoin price + weak efficiency = PVER-Z falls.
If Bitcoin rises but volume is super strong (normal buying volume), no problem, the PVER-Z stays normal. If Bitcoin rises but with very weak volume support, PVER-Z falls.
***Usage Notes***:
- Best used on the daily timeframe or higher.
- When the Z-Score enters the green zone (-2 to -3 SD), it signals a historically rare accumulation zone — favoring long-term buying for SDCA.
- When the Z-Score enters the red zone (+2 to +3 SD), it signals overextended distribution — caution recommended.
- Designed strictly for mean-reversion analysis, no trend-following signals.
- The red zone on a proper Z chart would be -2SD to -3SD and +2SD to +3SD for the green zone. At the time of publishing I do not know how to adjust the values on the indicator itself. The red zone at -2SD is actually +2 Standard Deviations on a Z Score SD Chart. (overbought zone).
- Your green zone at +2SD is actually -2SD Standard Deviations (oversold zone).
- Built manually with no reliance on built-in indicators
- Designed for Bitcoin on the 1D, 3D, or Weekly timeframes. NOT for intraday trading.
- DO NOT SOELY RELY ON THIS INDICATOR FOR YOUR LONG TERM VALUATION. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR FINANICAL ASSETS.
Global M2 Money Supply (USD) GrowthThe Global M2 Growth indicator evaluates the total liquid money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and assets that can be easily converted to cash. It reflects changes in global liquidity by tracking year-on-year (YoY) changes in the Global M2 money supply rather than its absolute value. This approach highlights the velocity of liquidity expansion or contraction, offering a clearer understanding of its correlation with asset performance, such as Bitcoin.
How It Works
When the Global M2 money supply expands, it reflects an increase in available liquidity. This often leads to an influx of capital into higher-yielding and riskier assets like Bitcoin, equities, and commodities. Conversely, when M2 contracts, liquidity tightens, leading to declines in the values of these assets.
An essential insight is that Bitcoin's price is not immediately affected by changes in M2. Research shows a lag of approximately 56-60 days (around two months) between liquidity changes and Bitcoin's price movements. Shifting the liquidity data forward by this period improves the correlation between Global M2 and Bitcoin performance.
How to Use
Track Global M2 YoY Change: Focus on liquidity's yearly change to identify trends. Rapid increases in liquidity often signify favorable conditions for Bitcoin and other risk assets to rise, while contractions often predict price declines or consolidation phases.
Account for the Lag Effect: Incorporate the two-month lag into your analysis to predict Bitcoin's potential moves more accurately. For instance, a recent resurgence in liquidity growth could signal a Bitcoin rally within the next two months.
Use as a Macro Indicator: Monitor liquidity trends alongside other economic indicators and asset performance metrics to build a more comprehensive investment framework.
By tracking these dynamics, traders and investors can better anticipate Bitcoin's trajectory and make informed decisions.
MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin Power Law Model
This indicator provides a powerful tool for investors by modeling the relationship between MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin (BTC) based on an observed power law correlation since August 2020, when MSTR adopted Bitcoin as its core investment strategy. The primary objective of the indicator is to identify areas where MSTR is overvalued or undervalued relative to BTC, offering investors crucial insights for making informed decisions.
Step-by-Step Creation Process:
Data Collection:
The indicator begins by gathering historical price data for both MSTR and BTC starting from August 2020. This period is significant as it marks MSTR’s strategic shift toward Bitcoin acquisition.
Power Law Analysis:
A power law relationship between MSTR and BTC is computed using a power of 1.3. This relationship models the price behavior of MSTR relative to BTC, providing a framework to track where MSTR’s price deviates from its expected value based on BTC's movements.
MSTR Price Model:
The MSTR price model based on this power law is then plotted against the actual price of MSTR. This allows investors to visualize areas where MSTR is potentially overvalued or undervalued relative to BTC.
Overvaluation is highlighted when the actual MSTR price exceeds the power law-based price, while undervaluation is noted when it falls below.
Time-Based Power Law Model:
Additionally, the indicator integrates a time-based model for MSTR, which shows that MSTR follows its own power law over time with a higher slope than BTC (7.2 vs. 5.8). This comparison provides further context, showing how MSTR's growth rate differs from BTC’s over time.
Oscillator Inclusion:
To complement the price models, an oscillator is added, which tracks the difference between the MSTR power law and the BTC power law. This oscillator helps visualize and quantify the divergence between the two, offering a clearer picture of periods where MSTR is performing above or below expectations compared to BTC.
Indicator Usefulness:
Overvaluation and Undervaluation Detection: By comparing MSTR’s current price against its expected power law-based price, investors can easily identify potential entry and exit points. When MSTR is overvalued relative to BTC, it may signal an opportunity to sell or reduce exposure. Conversely, undervaluation may suggest a buying opportunity.
Time-Based Growth Comparisons: The time-based power law model shows how MSTR has been growing relative to Bitcoin over time. This helps investors understand whether MSTR is outperforming or underperforming BTC in the long run.
Divergence Oscillator: The oscillator provides an intuitive way to gauge whether MSTR is significantly diverging from BTC’s growth trajectory, offering an additional signal to guide investment decisions.
Projections to the future
Projections of the MSTR power law to 500 days ahead is also included.
Why is this Indicator Useful for Investors?
This indicator offers a comprehensive view of how MSTR’s price behavior correlates with Bitcoin. By leveraging the power law relationship, it provides insight into whether MSTR is priced appropriately relative to BTC, which is especially valuable for those with exposure to both assets. The oscillator further refines this analysis by highlighting periods of divergence, offering potential trading opportunities based on relative value.
Unleash Bitcoin's Next Move with S&P Divergence!BTC_GO_LONG_SONG
This script works like a special helper that watches two things: Bitcoin (a popular type of digital money) and the S&P 500 (which is like a big basket of important companies' stocks).
Imagine Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are connected by an invisible elastic band.
When they move together: The elastic band stays relaxed.
When they move apart: The elastic band stretches.
This script keeps an eye on how much the elastic band stretches.
If Bitcoin starts to move in a different way than the S&P 500 and the band stretches a lot, the script thinks that Bitcoin might snap back or make a big jump soon.
Here’s how it works:
Volume Check: The script looks at how many people are buying or selling Bitcoin. If a lot more people are trading than usual, it’s like a signal that something big might happen.
Price Movement: It watches how Bitcoin’s price is changing. If Bitcoin breaks away from its usual pattern and moves far from where it was recently, it could be a sign that a big change is coming.
Elastic Band Check: The script checks if Bitcoin is moving differently than the S&P 500. If Bitcoin is doing its own thing while the S&P 500 moves in another direction, it’s like the elastic band is being stretched.
When all these things happen together—high trading volume, unusual price movement, and a stretched elastic band—the script shows a green triangle on the chart.
This triangle is a signal for people who believe Bitcoin might go up (the Bulls) that it could be a good time to think about entering a trade because a breakout might be coming.
This explanation uses the idea of an elastic band to describe the relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, making it easier to understand how this script helps traders spot potential breakout opportunities.
Multi BTC Rolling APY Calculator [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Multi BTC Rolling APY Calculator " is an innovative Pine Script indicator tailored for cryptocurrency traders, providing insights into arbitrage opportunities and market sentiment by calculating the Rolling Annual Percentage Yield (APY) between spot and futures prices of Bitcoin. Unlike traditional APY calculators, this tool specializes in capturing the nuances of the highly volatile and less efficient cryptocurrency markets. Rolling APY is derived from traditional market basis arbitrage but adapted to highlight significant discrepancies that frequently occur between derivative and underlying asset prices in crypto markets.
Historical backtesting has revealed that Bitcoin's Rolling APY can serve as a robust indicator of market sentiment:
- Below 0%: Often indicates panic or 'end-of-world' scenarios.
- 0-5%: Signifies extreme market fear.
- 5-10%: Reflects a calm market environment.
- 10-15%: Suggests a moderately warm market.
- 15-20%: Indicates an overheated market.
- **Above 20%: Signals FOMO (fear of missing out).
This nuanced understanding of Rolling APY helps investors not only spot arbitrage opportunities but also gauge the emotional state of the market, providing a dual function that enhances trading strategies in the volatile realm of cryptocurrencies.
█ Strategy: How It Works – Detailed Explanation
🔶 Rolling APY Calculation
The Rolling APY calculation is crucial for understanding the annualized potential returns from arbitrage strategies, given by the formula:
APY = ((Future Price - Spot Price) / Spot Price) * (365 / Days Until Expiration) * 100
This annualizes the observed premium or discount on futures contracts relative to the spot price, providing a year-over-year expectation of returns if one were to engage in arbitrage over the specified period.
🔶 Days Calculation
The accuracy of APY is contingent upon the precise calculation of days until each contract expires:
Days = (Expiration Timestamp - Current Timestamp) / 86400000
This calculation ensures the APY reflects true market dynamics for each futures contract's duration.
█ Trade Direction
While this tool does not provide direct trading signals, it informs traders about potential arbitrage opportunities and the prevailing market sentiment. Traders can leverage this data to make strategic decisions, aligning long or short positions with the anticipated market movements and arbitrage conditions.
█ Usage
By inputting specific parameters related to their market analysis, traders can monitor discrepancies in Bitcoin’s pricing across different timelines, which is especially beneficial for those involved in derivatives trading, arbitrage, and sentiment analysis.
█ Default Settings
- Resolution: Controls the frequency of data (default is daily).
- Show numbers in annual: Determines whether APY is displayed on an annual basis.
- Base Symbol and Future Symbols: Specify the spot and futures markets for analysis.
True Market Mean BandsIntroducing the "True Market Mean Bands" (TMMB) , a technical analysis tool designed for Bitcoin. TMMB provides a model of market valuation by integrating the concept of Vaulted Realized Price with dynamic volatility bands, offering traders insights into potential market movements.
Core Concept and Utility:
The TMMB centers around the Vaulted Realized Price, an advanced metric that refines the realized price by accounting for Bitcoin that is "vaulted" - or held out of active circulation. This metric offers a deeper understanding of market valuation by considering not just the last transaction prices but also the long-term holding behaviors of investors.
Innovative Bands:
Building on this core concept, the TMMB introduces multiple bands that reflect market volatility and supply dynamics. These bands are derived using a combination of statistical analysis and customizable multipliers, allowing for adaptation to varying market conditions. The bands include:
Standard Deviation Bands: Adjusted for market volatility, providing a dynamic measure of overbought and oversold conditions.
Vaulted Realized Price Multiplier Bands: These bands use multipliers inspired by the price distribution around the mean, aligning with key psychological and mathematical levels in the market.
Technical Insight:
At the heart of TMMB lies a robust calculation framework that leverages:
Security Function: To fetch relevant market data, ensuring real-time accuracy and relevance.
Customizable Multipliers: Allowing users to adjust the sensitivity of the bands according to their trading strategies.
Statistical Analysis: Utilizing standard deviation and mean calculations to dynamically adapt the bands to market conditions.
Originality and Usefulness:
The TMMB stands out by offering a unique perspective on Bitcoin's market valuation, taking into account long-term holding patterns which are often overlooked in traditional indicators. This approach not only enriches market analysis but also provides traders with actionable insights, potentially enhancing trading strategies.
Application and Value:
TMMB is especially useful for traders and analysts looking for a deeper understanding of market dynamics, beyond surface-level price movements. It offers a valuable tool for identifying potential entry and exit points, assessing market sentiment, and making informed trading decisions.
MVRV Z-Score [AlgoAlpha]Introducing the ∑ MVRV Z-Score by AlgoAlpha, a dynamic and sophisticated tool designed for traders seeking to gain an edge in INDEX:BTCUSD analysis. This script employs advanced statistical techniques on Bitcoin On-Chain data to offer a deeper understanding of market conditions, focusing on valuation extremes and momentum trends. Let's explore the features and functionalities that make this tool a valuable addition to your trading arsenal.
Key Features:
🔶 Adjustable Parameters: Customize the Z score lookback length, moving average lookback length, and choose from six moving average types, tailoring the analysis to your trading style.
🔶 Heiken Ashi Compatibility: Incorporate Heiken Ashi plots to visualize market trends, adding a layer of clarity to your technical analysis.
🔶 Divergence Alerts: Detect significant bullish and bearish divergences, allowing for timely identification of potential market reversals.
🔶 Configurable Alerts: Set alerts for overbought, oversold, and divergence conditions, ensuring you never miss an opportunity.
How to Use:
1. ➡️ Parameter Selection: Start by configuring the Z-Score and moving average settings according to your analysis needs. This includes selecting the lookback period and the type of moving average.
2. ➡️ Visualization Options: Choose to enable Heiken Ashi plots for an alternative view of the Z-Score, which can help in identifying trend directions more clearly.
3. ➡️ Monitor for Signals: Keep an eye out for divergence signals and overbought/oversold conditions as potential indicators for entering or exiting trades.
4. ➡️ Alert Setup: Configure alerts based on your selected parameters to receive notifications for important market movements and conditions.
How It Works:
The core of this tool is the Z-Score calculation, which assesses the standard deviation of the current market value from its mean, highlighting overvalued or undervalued market conditions. Here's a brief overview of the script's operational mechanics:
1. 📊 Calculating the Z-Score: The script first calculates the mean over a user-defined lookback period of the MVRV ratio, then it computes the Z-Score to identify deviations from the average.
meanValue = ta.sma(marketValue, zScoreLookback)
zScoreValue = (marketValue - meanValue) / ta.stdev(marketValue, zScoreLookback)
2. 📈 Applying a Moving Average: To smooth the Z-Score data and make trends more discernible, a moving average is applied. Users can choose from several types, such as SMA, EMA, or HMA, based on their preference.
3. 🔄 Heiken Ashi Visualization: For those opting for a more intuitive trend analysis, Heiken Ashi plots can be enabled, transforming the Z-Score data into candlestick charts that simplify trend identification.
4. 🔍 Identifying Divergences: The script is equipped to spot divergences between the market price action and the Z-Score, signaling potential bullish or bearish market reversals.
oscHigherLow = haClose > ta.valuewhen(findPivotLow, haClose , 1) and isInRange(findPivotLow )
priceLowerLow = low < ta.valuewhen(findPivotLow, low , 1)
bullishCondition = enablePlotBullish and priceLowerLow and oscHigherLow and findPivotLow
5. 🚨 Configurable Alerts: Lastly, the script allows for the setting of customizable alerts based on the Z-Score, moving averages, and identified divergences, enabling traders to react promptly to market changes.
The ∑ MVRV Z-Score by AlgoAlpha is an essential tool for traders looking to analyze and interpret market dynamics through a quantitatively rigorous lens. Whether you're focused on identifying market extremes or tracking trend momentum, this script offers the insights needed to support informed trading decisions. 🌟📊💡
IBIT Premium to CoinbaseThe BTC ETF premium indicator for TradingView is a specialized tool designed to measure and visualize the premium or discount of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin, relative to the actual price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange. This indicator can be particularly insightful for traders interested in the BTC securities market and those analyzing the demand for Bitcoin as reflected by institutional investment products.
#### Description:
The BTC ETF premium indicator in TradingView leverages an advanced Pine Script algorithm to calculate the premium (or discount) percentage of IBIT compared to the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on Coinbase. The premium is a critical insight that reflects market sentiment and potentially arbitrage opportunities between the trust's share price and the underlying cryptocurrency asset.
Here's how the indicator works:
1. **Calculation Methodology:**
- **Implied Bitcoin Price of IBIT:** We determine the implied price of Bitcoin within IBIT by dividing the IBIT closing price by the known ratio of Bitcoin per share.
- **IBIT Premium to Coinbase:** The percentage premium is then calculated as:
$$\text{IBIT Premium} = \frac{(\text{Implied Bitcoin Price of IBIT } - \text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase})}{\text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase}} \times 100$$
- This calculation is performed using the closing prices on a per-minute basis to ensure timely and accurate analysis.
2. **Visualization:** The indicator plots the premium as a step line chart, making it easy to visualize changes over time. A dynamic label accompanies the plot, displaying the implied Bitcoin price, the actual percentage premium or discount, and whether the premium is trending up or down compared to the previous day's value.
3. **Usage Scenario:** Traders can use this indicator to monitor the live premium 24/7 and analyze how it behaves during different market conditions, including when the equity market, where IBIT is traded, is closed.
#### Additional Features:
- **Color-Coding:** The premium is color-coded in green when positive (premium) and in red when negative (discount), aiding quick visual assessment.
- **Zero-Line Reference:** A horizontal line is drawn at zero to easily identify when IBIT is trading at par with the spot price of Bitcoin.
- **Real-Time Label Updates:** The label updates in real time with the latest premium/discount information and includes an arrow to signify the trend direction.
#### Access and Usage:
The indicator can be favorited or added to your TradingView charts. You are also welcome to use the source code as a foundation for further customization to suit your trading strategies.
#### Notes:
Please consider that the IBIT has specific trading hours, and the indicator can show live changes even when its market is closed, which might lead to discrepancies from official static data. For best performance, use this indicator alongside the IBIT candlestick chart on TradingView.
GBTC Premium to CoinbaseThe BTC ETF premium indicator for TradingView is a specialized tool designed to measure and visualize the premium or discount of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin, relative to the actual price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange. This indicator can be particularly insightful for traders interested in the BTC securities market and those analyzing the demand for Bitcoin as reflected by institutional investment products.
#### Description:
The BTC ETF premium indicator in TradingView leverages an advanced Pine Script algorithm to calculate the premium (or discount) percentage of GBTC compared to the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on Coinbase. The premium is a critical insight that reflects market sentiment and potentially arbitrage opportunities between the trust's share price and the underlying cryptocurrency asset.
Here's how the indicator works:
1. **Calculation Methodology:**
- **Implied Bitcoin Price of GBTC:** We determine the implied price of Bitcoin within GBTC by dividing the GBTC closing price by the known ratio of Bitcoin per share.
- **GBTC Premium to Coinbase:** The percentage premium is then calculated as:
$$\text{GBTC Premium} = \frac{(\text{Implied Bitcoin Price of GBTC} - \text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase})}{\text{Actual Bitcoin Price on Coinbase}} \times 100$$
- This calculation is performed using the closing prices on a per-minute basis to ensure timely and accurate analysis.
2. **Visualization:** The indicator plots the premium as a step line chart, making it easy to visualize changes over time. A dynamic label accompanies the plot, displaying the implied Bitcoin price, the actual percentage premium or discount, and whether the premium is trending up or down compared to the previous day's value.
3. **Usage Scenario:** Traders can use this indicator to monitor the live premium 24/7 and analyze how it behaves during different market conditions, including when the equity market, where GBTC is traded, is closed.
#### Additional Features:
- **Color-Coding:** The premium is color-coded in green when positive (premium) and in red when negative (discount), aiding quick visual assessment.
- **Zero-Line Reference:** A horizontal line is drawn at zero to easily identify when GBTC is trading at par with the spot price of Bitcoin.
- **Real-Time Label Updates:** The label updates in real time with the latest premium/discount information and includes an arrow to signify the trend direction.
#### Access and Usage:
The indicator can be favorited or added to your TradingView charts. You are also welcome to use the source code as a foundation for further customization to suit your trading strategies.
#### Notes:
Please consider that the GBTC has specific trading hours, and the indicator can show live changes even when its market is closed, which might lead to discrepancies from official static data. For best performance, use this indicator alongside the GBTC candlestick chart on TradingView.
Polylog Regression - Bitcoin (BTC) [Logue]Polynomial Logarithmic Regression. The BTC cycle tops and bottoms were separately fit using a polynomial regression. The extensions are linear; meaning the extensions will overestimate the future top and bottom bands. The bottom band was fit on much more data than the top band, so is likely to be more reliable. The shape of the regression into the future was estimated, so may not be accurate into the future.
Use this indicator at your own risk. I make no claims as to its accuracy in forecasting future tops or bottoms of bitcoin.
This is used in the "BBI - Bitcoin Bottom Indicator," "BTI - Bitcoin Top Indicator", and the "BTB - Bitcoin Top and Bottom Indicator". Please see these indicators for more information as to how to support me developing more indicators in my spare time.
BTC Performance Table / BTC Seasonality Visualization
This script visualizes Bitcoins "seasonality", in form of a colored table (based on the idea from "BigBangTheory")
The history table shows you which months do statistically perform better/worse in comparison to other months.
How to use this script:
Choose ticker "BLX" ("BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin").
Set the charts time frame to weekly or daily. Tables position on the screen and its colors are configurable.
Table explanation:
Cells show whether a gain or a loss occured from month to month, since BTC came out in 2010.
The price difference, between monthly open and monthly close, determines the cell color (negative -> red, positive -> green).
The year column shows total gain (green) or loss (red) for that particular year.
Each value is presented as a rounded percentage number.
How this script works:
The script calculates the price difference between each monthly and yearly open and close, storing those numbers inside arrays.
Then it populates the table, by using those numbers and doing the cell coloring (there will be a yellow cell, in case no change should occur).
German Short-Description
Prozentuale Übersicht in Tabellenform, der monatlichen, sowie jährlichen, Performance des Bitcoin (basierend auf der Idee von "BigBangTheory").
Hierdurch wird die "Saisonalität" des Bitcoin sichtbar. D.h. welche Monate des Jahres, im Vergleich zu anderen Monaten, statistisch gesehen öfter positiv/negativ schließen.
Zwecks vollständiger Darstellung muss der Ticker "BLX" ("BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin") im weekly oder daily time frame aktiv sein.
The Price of Hard MoneyIf we calculate “the price of hard money” (the market capitalization weighted price of gold plus Bitcoin); we get this chart.
Since 2017, Bitcoin’s share of hard money growth has been increasing, we can see it visibly on the gold chart by a widening delta between the price of hard money and the Gold price. We can also see some interesting technical behaviours.
In 2021, Hard Money broke out and held this breakout above the 2011 Gold high. Only later in 2022 did a correction of 20% occur – typical of Golds historic volatility in periods of inflation and high interest rates.
Hard Money is at major support and we have evidence for a fundamental shift in investor capital flows away from gold and into Bitcoin.
This Indicator is useful:
- To track the market capitalization of Gold (estimated), Bitcoin and combined market capitalization of Hard Money.
- To track the price action and respective change in investor flows from Gold to Bitcoin .
Provided Bitcoin continues to suck more value out of gold with time, this chart will be useful for tracking price action of the combined asset classes into the years to come.
Coin & market cap tableThis table was built specifically for the Crypto market.
It gives you a quick overview of the markets without having to scroll through numerous charts. The information is the overall markets daily change and the charts coins movement on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.
The weeks start on a Monday morning, the months start on the 1st of the month so this is last weeks data and last calendar months data.
It also gives you Bitcoins dominance. (Total2) you can change it to Bitcoin & Ethereum dominance (Total3)
