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QQQ and SPY Price Levels [MW]Introduction: Don’t let SPY and QQQ resistance levels hurt your futures trading anymore. The QQQ and SPY Price Levels indicator automagically provides easily accessible QQQ price levels for NASDAQ-related charts such as QQQ, /NQ and /MNQ futures, and leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ and SQQQ as well as for SPY price levels for S&P 500-related charts such as SPY, /ES and /MES futures, SPX, and leveraged ETFs such as UPRO and SPXU. If you’ve ever traded futures, or anything QQQ- or SPY-related and wanted to know at what price would the corresponding asset reach a key whole number level of QQQ or SPY, like 400, 440, 445, or even 447.50, this tool is for you. Key 10x, 5x, and even 2.5x multiples of QQQ and SPY can act as support or resistance for other related-assets. Until now, there hasn’t been an indicator that can serve as an easy visual cue to know exactly when that is about to happen across assets. This indicator is a fork of the original SPY Price Levels indicator, which only considered SPY-related assets. Settings: QQQ/SPY 2.5x: Show closest levels above and below that are multiples of 2.5 on QQQ QQQ/SPY 5x: Show closest levels above and below that are multiples of 5 on QQQ QQQ/SPY 10x: Show closest levels above and below that are multiples of 10 on QQQ Show QQQ/SPY Price Label: Show the current QQQ/SPY price Extend lines to the left: Extend label lines for each price level to the beginning of the chart Calculations: This indicator defines the ratio between the price of QQQ/SPY and another NASDAQ/S&P-related asset and uses that multiplier once the user-defined price increments are defined. For example, if /MNQ is at 19000 and QQQ is at 465, then the ratio would be 40.8. The incremental QQQ levels that are above and below the QQQ price are calculated using the following equations: qqqLevelUp = _multiplier * math.ceil(_qqqClose / _multiplier) qqqLevelDown = _multiplier * math.floor(_qqqClose / _multiplier) The conversion ratio is then multiplied by that amount to get the final estimated corresponding price using the calculation: levelUp := _conversion * qqqLevelUp levelDown := _conversion * qqqLevelDown For leveraged assets, the conversion must be used on the difference between the current QQQ price and the incremental upper and lower levels. For example, the calculation for the next level up looks like the following: levelUpDelta := math.abs(_qqqClose - qqqLevelUp) levelUp := close + _conversion * (levelUpDelta * _leverage) This logic is identical for SPY-related assets. How to Use: The QQQ and SPY Price Levels indicator aims to be as unobtrusive as possible. The default view shows 3 labels and 2 lines that are all aligned to the right of the main chart, so that it interferes as little as possible with any other indicators. It can be added to any /NQ or /MNQ futures chart, SQQQ, TQQQ, and, of course, QQQ as well as any /ES /MES futures chart, SPXU, UPRO, SPX, and of course SPY. The most immediate price levels for each multiplier appears above and below the current price along with the price of QQQ/SPY. For example, MNQU2024 is currently at 19594. By looking at the indicator the next QQQ increment below is at 475, or 19556 on the MNQU2024 chart. This potential support is marked with a green label that shows both prices. The next increment above is at QQQ 477.50, or 19659 on the MESU2024 chart. And the QQQ price itself, is also shown (and can be removed) at 475.92. QQQ and SPY price increments of 2.5, 5, and 10 tend to consistently act at the very least as emotional support and resistance levels. Weak, or weakening volume and/or momentum when these levels are hit can trigger a strong rejection, and can sometimes precipitate lengthy consolidation periods at those levels. Watching an NASDAQ- and S&P 500-related asset come to a halt, fall off a cliff, or react in some other unintuitive way could very well be the result of a QQQ/SPY level being reached. Even though many of us know that this relationship exists, it’s easy to forget. So, this indicator helps to ensure that its users keep that relationship front and center. By extending the lines into the past on QQQ/SPY and their related assets, you can see what reactions happened at these key levels. Other Usage Notes and Limitations: The calculations used only provide an estimated relationship or a close approximation, and are not exact. It's important for traders to be aware of the limitations of any indicator and to use them as part of a broader, well-rounded trading strategy that includes risk management, fundamental analysis, and other tools that can help with reducing false signals, determining trend direction, and providing additional confirmation for a trade decision. Diversifying strategies and not relying solely on one type of indicator or analysis can help mitigate some of these risks.
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od mwrightinc
5
Customizable NQ Level PlotterThis indicator, inspired by Kellyannnn, will plot user specified levels on the NQ Chart. Add the levels you want to see, customize the colors, and you're good to go. Let me give you an example of how this might be used: Say, for example, that you have noticed that the NQ seems to move between the even hundred levels and the even fifty levels.... if you tell this indicator to plot those 2 levels at every even hundred and every even 50 level it will do so at: 18000 18050 18100 18150 18200 18250... and so on. It will plot these levels above and below the current price. If you want to add 2 other levels, you can do that as well. So if you wanted to have it plot a line at every 00, 26, 50, and 77 it would do so like this: 18000 18026 18050 18077 18100 18126 18150 18177 18200 18226 18250 18277 18300... and so on. Some people may find this helpful in planning their trades.
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od TraderJohnGray
TICK and Price Action Indicator for NQ 5 minuteThis indicator for 5 minute NQ charts utilises TICK index and price action. Where TICK opens beyond +1000/-1000 this is an overbought/oversold signal. Similarly, when TICK closes below -200 it is a sell signal, and above +200 it is a buy signal. This indicator colours the NQ bars based on the closing/opening values of the previous TICK. It also draws arrows where price action (close above previous high, close below previous low) is in concordance with TICK behaviour.
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od GanesaPonraja
1
15M Swing Sweep Lines + SMT (ES vs NQ)15M Swing Sweep Lines (NY Killzones)Visualize liquidity sweeps of 15-minute swing highs/lows exclusively during high-impact London & New York killzones.This ICT-inspired indicator detects when price sweeps (wicks beyond) the most recent confirmed 15-minute swing high or low — classic signs of liquidity raids or stop hunts — but only if the sweep happens during key "killzone" sessions where institutional activity is typically highest.Key Features15M Swing Detection: Uses confirmed pivot highs/lows (length 2) on the 15-minute timeframe for reliable structure points. Killzone Filters (New York time):London Killzone: 3:00 AM – 4:59 AM New York Killzone: 9:30 AM – 10:59 AM (captures the high-volatility NY open overlap) Sweep Visualization:Bearish Sweep (high > last 15M swing high): Thick red horizontal line from the swing point to the sweep bar. Bullish Sweep (low < last 15M swing low): Thick green horizontal line from the swing point to the sweep bar. Lines use xloc.bar_time for precise placement and extend only to the bar where the sweep occurs. No duplicates: Prevents multiple lines for the same swing sweep. Non-repainting logic with lookahead_off for clean, trustworthy signals. Why Killzones MatterMany ICT/SMC traders focus on these windows because they often feature aggressive manipulation, equal highs/lows sweeps, and the setup for strong directional moves. This tool helps you instantly spot when buy-side or sell-side liquidity has been raided on the 15M structure during these prime times.Ideal ForConfirming potential reversals or inducements after liquidity grabs. Adding confluence to entries during London or NY sessions. Futures traders (ES, NQ, etc.) looking for clean visual cues of smart money engineering. Lightweight, overlay-friendly, and focused — add it to your chart for clearer insight into 15M liquidity sweeps when it matters most. Perfect companion for killzone-based strategies!
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od gthomasperth
Bull Flag DetectionThe FuturesGod bull flag indicator aims to identify the occurrence of bull flags. Bull flags are a popular trading pattern that allows users to gauge long entries into a given market. Flags consist of a pole that is followed by either a downward or sideways consolidation period. This script can be used on any market but was intended for futures (NQ, ES) trading on the intraday timeframe. The script does the following: 1. Identifies the occurrence of a flag pole. This is based on a lookback period and percentage threshold decided by the user. 2. Marks the consolidation area after the pole occurrence using swing highs and swing lows. 3. Visually the above is represented by a shaded green area. 4. When a pole is detected, it is marked by a downward off-white triangle. Note that if the percentage threshold is reached several times on the same upward climb, the script will continue to identify points where the threshold for pole detection is met. 5. Also visualized are the 20, 50 and 200 period exponential moving averages. The area between the 20 and 50 EMAs are shaded to provide traders a visual of a possible support area.
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od xfuturesgod
1
Convert ETF to Futures/IndexThis indicator is used to automatically map an ETF's VWAP and 10 levels above and below the strike of your choice, to the futures or index instrument currently being viewed/traded. This works very well when using both SPY to ES/MES/SPX or QQQ to NQ/MNQ/NDX to plot the ETF strikes and can lead to some incredible trades, especially when trading level to level. Since SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA have the same price action as their futures iteration, there seems to be a direct correlation between their levels and VWAP . This indicator is made to easily map these key levels to the appropriate futures instrument. If you have a way to measure GEX centered around a certain level, I recommend color coding the lines to help indicate whether the level will have strong positive or negative gamma hedging associated with it.
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od kfatkin
2
Nq/ES daily CME risk intervalReverse engineering the risk interval for CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) products based on margin requirements involves understanding the relationship between margin requirements, volatility, and the risk interval (price movement assumed for margin calculation) The CME uses a methodology called SPAN (Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk) to calculate margins. At a high level, the initial margin is derived from: Initial Margin = Risk Interval × Contract Size × Volatility Adjustment Factor Where: Risk Interval: The price movement range used in the margin calculation. Contract Size: The unit size of the futures contract. Volatility Adjustment Factor: A measure of how much price fluctuation is expected, often tied to historical volatility. To calculate an approximate of the daily CME risk interval, we need: Initial Margin Requirement: Available on the CME Group website or broker platforms. Contract Size: The size of one futures contract (e.g., for the S&P 500 E-mini, it is $50 × index points). Volatility Adjustment Factor: This is derived from historical volatility or CME's implied volatility estimates. As we do not have access to CME calculations , the volatility adjustment factor can be estimated using historical volatility: We calculate the standard deviation of daily returns over a specific period (e.g., 20 or 30 or 60 days). Key Considerations The exact formulas and parameters used by CME for CME's implied volatility estimates are proprietary, so this calculation based on standard deviation of daily returns is an approximation. How to use: Input the maintenance margin obtained from the CME website. Adjust volatility period calculation. The indicator displays the range high and low for the trading day. 1.Lines can be used as targets intraday 2.Market tends to snap back in between the lines and close the day in the range
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od DrodzCip
2
Daily Floor PivotsDaily Floor Pivots with Comprehensive Statistical Analysis Overview This indicator combines traditional floor pivot levels with golden zone analysis and comprehensive statistical insights derived from 15 years of historical NQ futures data. While the pivot levels and golden zones can be applied to any instrument, the statistical tables are specifically calibrated for NQ/MNQ futures based on analysis of 2,482 NY Regular Trading Hours (RTH) sessions from 2010-2025. What Makes This Indicator Original Unlike standard pivot indicators that merely plot levels, this tool provides: Enhanced Golden Zone Analysis: Calculates not only the main golden zone (0.5-0.618 retracement of previous day's range) but also golden zones between each pivot pair (PP-R1, R1-R2, R2-R3, PP-S1, S1-S2, S2-S3) Data-Driven Statistical Tables: Two comprehensive tables displaying real statistics from 2,482 trading days of NQ analysis, including: Probability-based touch rates and continuation patterns Context-aware statistics based on opening position Gap analysis and behavioral patterns First touch dynamics and time-to-reach averages Granular Customization: Every visual element and statistical section can be independently toggled, allowing traders to focus on what matters most to their strategy How It Works Pivot Calculation Methodology The indicator uses the standard floor pivot formula based on the previous day's price action: Pivot Point (PP) = (Previous High + Previous Low + Previous Close) / 3 Resistance Levels: R1, R2, R3 calculated from PP and previous range Support Levels: S1, S2, S3 calculated from PP and previous range Golden Zone Calculations Main Golden Zone: The 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous day's range, representing a key reversal and continuation area. Inter-Pivot Golden Zones: For each adjacent pivot pair, golden zones are calculated as: Resistance pairs (PP→R1, R1→R2, R2→R3): 0.5-0.618 range from the lower pivot Support pairs (PP→S1, S1→S2, S2→S3): 0.382-0.5 range from the upper pivot These zones represent high-probability areas where price tends to react when moving between pivot levels. Statistical Analysis Source All statistics displayed in the tables are derived from external Python analysis of 15 years of 1-minute NQ futures data (2010-2025), specifically analyzing NY RTH sessions (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EST). The analysis tracked: 2,482 complete trading days Intraday pivot touches and closes Opening position context Gap behavior relative to previous day Time-of-day patterns Sequential pivot interactions IMPORTANT: While the pivot levels and golden zones are universally applicable mathematical calculations that work on any instrument, the statistical percentages shown in the tables are specific to NQ/MNQ behavior only. Do not assume these statistics transfer to other instruments. Configuration Guide Basic Settings Number of Periods Back (1-20, default: 3) Controls how many historical pivot periods are displayed on the chart Setting to 1 shows only current day's pivots Higher values show more historical context Labels Position (Left/Right) Choose whether pivot labels appear on the left or right side of each level line Line Width (1-5, default: 2) Adjust the thickness of all pivot and golden zone lines Golden Zone Customization Show Daily Golden Zone (0.5-0.618) Toggle the main golden zone on/off When enabled, displays a shaded box between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels Line Color / Fill Color Customize the appearance of the main golden zone Fill color determines the shaded box transparency Show Labels / Show Prices Control whether "0.5" and "0.618" labels appear Control whether price values are displayed on labels Inter-Pivot Golden Zones Six toggle options allow you to show/hide individual golden zones: PP to R1 / PP to S1: Most frequently touched (60.8% / 50.9%) R1 to R2 / S1 to S2: Moderately touched (25.2% / 24.0%) R2 to R3 / S2 to S3: Rarely touched (9.4% / 10.5%) Line Color / Fill Color: Customize appearance of all inter-pivot zones Show Labels / Show Prices: Control labeling for inter-pivot zones Usage Tip: Disable outer zones (R2-R3, S2-S3) on lower volatility days to reduce chart clutter. Pivot Display Show Support/Resistance Levels: Master toggle for all pivot lines Show SR Labels / Show SR Prices: Control labeling on pivot levels Individual level toggles and colors: PP (Pivot Point): The central reference point R1/S1: Primary resistance/support (38.9% / 35.4% touch rate) R2/S2: Secondary levels (15.6% / 16.1% touch rate) R3/S3: Extended levels (5.1% / 7.3% touch rate) Color Customization: Each level's color can be independently set Overall Statistics Table Show Overall Statistics Table: Master toggle Table Size: tiny/small/normal/large/huge/auto Table Position: Top Left/Top Right/Bottom Left/Bottom Right Section Toggles (enable/disable individual sections): Current Session Info Touch & Close Rates Continue & Reject Rates First Touch Statistics Golden Zone Statistics Daily Close Distribution Highest/Lowest Levels Reached Context Statistics Table Show Context Statistics Table: Master toggle Table Size: tiny/small/normal/large/huge/auto Table Position: Top Left/Top Right/Bottom Left/Bottom Right Section Toggles: Current Opening Zone Opening Zone Statistics Previous Day Gap Context Understanding the Statistical Tables TABLE 1: OVERALL STATISTICS This table presents universal statistics from 2,482 days of NQ analysis. Current Session Info Displays real-time context for the active session: Open: Where the current RTH session opened relative to pivots (e.g., "GZ_TO_R1" means opened between the PP-R1 golden zone and R1) Now: Current price position relative to pivots Direction: Bull (close > open), Bear (close < open), or Flat How to use: This section helps you quickly understand where price opened and where it currently is, providing immediate context for the day's action. Touch & Close Rates Shows probability that each pivot level will be reached during RTH: Touch %: Percentage of days where price touched this level at any point Example: R1 touched 38.9% of days, PP touched 57.5% of days Close %: Percentage of days where price closed beyond this level Example: R1 close beyond happened 39.8% of days How to interpret: Higher touch rates indicate more reliable levels for intraday targeting The difference between touch and close rates shows rejection frequency PP has the highest touch rate (57.5%), making it the most magnetic level Outer levels (R3/S3) have low touch rates (5.1%/7.3%), indicating rare extension days Continue & Reject Rates When a level is touched, these statistics show what happens next: Continue %: Probability price continues through the level Example: When PP is touched, price continues 88.1% of the time Reject %: Probability price rejects from the level and reverses Example: When R1 is touched, price rejects 50.9% of the time How to interpret: PP shows highest continuation (88.1%), confirming it's a poor reversal level Support levels (S1/S2/S3) show strong rejection rates (62.5%/60.7%/56.1%), making them better reversal candidates Continuation rates above 80% suggest the level is better as a target than an entry First Touch Statistics Analyzes which pivot is typically touched first during RTH: 1st Touch %: Probability this level is the first pivot encountered PP is first touched 37.1% of days (most common) R1 is first touched 26.0% of days S1 is first touched 10.9% of days 1st→Continue: If this level is touched first, probability of continuation S1-S3 show 95.6%-100% continuation when touched first This means when price reaches support first, it usually continues lower Avg Time: Minutes after 9:30 AM EST before first touch PP: 1h 6m average S3: 19m average (when bearish) R3: 3h 19m average (when bullish) How to interpret: Opening away from PP means higher probability of reaching extremes (R2/R3 or S2/S3) When support is touched first (within first 2 hours), expect continuation lower Late-day first touches (after 2 PM) often indicate strong trending days Multi-Touch: Shows how often levels are tested multiple times (92.8%-95.0% across all levels) Golden Zone Statistics Main GZ: 58.5% touch rate for the 0.5-0.618 zone Inter-Pivot zones: PP-R1: 60.8% (highest probability) PP-S1: 50.9% R1-R2: 25.2% S1-S2: 24.0% R2-R3: 9.4% S2-S3: 10.5% How to interpret: Main GZ is touched more often than any individual resistance level PP-R1 and PP-S1 golden zones are high-probability mean reversion areas Outer golden zones (R2-R3, S2-S3) are only relevant on high volatility days Daily Close Distribution Shows where RTH sessions typically close: Above/Below PP: 58.5% close above, 41.5% below (slight bullish bias) Above R1: 24.5% of days Below S1: 18.7% of days In GZ: Only 6.3% close in the golden zone (typically transits through it) How to interpret: Most days (58.5%) have bullish bias (close above PP) Less than 25% of days are strong trending days (beyond R1/S1) Golden zone is an action area, not a resting area Highest/Lowest Levels Reached Distribution of the most extreme level reached: High Resist: R1 (26.0%), R2 (10.8%), R3 (5.1%) Low Support: S1 (35.4%), S2 (1.9%), S3 (0.6%) How to interpret: Most days don't reach beyond R1 or S1 R3/S3 are rare events (5.1%/0.6%), indicating major trending days S1 is reached as lowest level more often than R1 as highest, suggesting downside is more frequently tested TABLE 2: CONTEXT STATISTICS This table provides conditional statistics based on how the session opened. Current Opening Zone Displays which of 13 possible zones the RTH session opened in: ABOVE_R3, R2_TO_R3, R1_TO_R2, GZ_TO_R1, IN_GZ, PP_TO_GZ, AT_PP, GZ_TO_PP, S1_TO_GZ, S2_TO_S1, S3_TO_S2, BELOW_S3 How to use: This immediately tells you the market structure and what type of day to expect. Opening Zone Statistics Detailed statistics for the current opening zone (only shows for 6 major zones): For each zone, you see: Occurs: How often this opening scenario happens GZ_TO_R1: 38.4% (most common) AT_PP: 12.8% S1_TO_GZ: 24.2% R1_TO_R2: 9.4% S2_TO_S1: 6.3% IN_GZ: 3.8% Bull/Bear %: Close direction probability Example: GZ_TO_R1 is perfectly balanced (50.0% bull / 49.6% bear) R1_TO_R2 is bullish (58.1% bull / 41.0% bear) Levels Hit: Probability of reaching each pivot level from this opening Helps identify high-probability targets Example: From GZ_TO_R1, PP is hit 52.9%, R1 is hit 49.0%, S1 is hit 21.6% How to interpret: GZ_TO_R1 (most common): Balanced day, watch PP and GZ for direction clues AT_PP: Slight bullish bias (56.9%), high chance of touching both PP (92.8%) and GZ (90.3%) R1_TO_R2: Bullish bias (58.1%), expect continuation to R2 (58.1% chance) S2_TO_S1: Bullish reversal setup (59.9%), very high chance of S1 touch (82.8%) IN_GZ: Rare opening (3.8%), bullish bias, virtually guaranteed GZ touch (100%) Previous Day Gap Context Shows current gap scenario and typical behavior: Three scenarios: GAP UP: Opened Above Yesterday's High (20.5% of days) R1 Touch: 65.9% (high probability) R2 Touch: 42.1% S1 Touch: 15.0% (low probability) Bias: Bullish continuation GAP DOWN: Opened Below Yesterday's Low (11.3% of days) S1 Touch: 71.5% (high probability) S2 Touch: 55.2% R1 Touch: 12.1% (low probability) Bias: Bearish continuation NO GAP: Opened Within Yesterday's Range (68.2% of days) PP Touch: 69.5% GZ Touch: 71.7% R1 Touch: 35.2% Bias: Balanced (watch for direction at PP/GZ) How to interpret: Gap days (up or down) tend to continue in the gap direction When gapping, fade trades are low probability (15.0% and 12.1%) Most days (68.2%) open within previous range, making PP and GZ critical decision zones The "bias" line provides clear directional guidance for trade selection Practical Application Examples Example 1: Standard Day Setup Scenario: RTH opens at 20,450 PP: 20,400 GZ: 20,390-20,395 R1: 20,425 Previous day high: 20,460 What the tables tell you: Opening Zone: "GZ_TO_R1" (38.4% occurrence) Gap Context: "NO GAP" (68.2% occurrence) Expected behavior: Balanced (50/50 bull/bear) High probability: PP touch (52.9%), GZ touch (56.8%) Moderate probability: R1 touch (49.0%), S1 touch (21.6%) Trade plan: Wait for price to reach PP (52.9% chance) or GZ (56.8% chance) Look for directional confirmation at these levels First target R1 if bullish, S1 if bearish Avoid assuming direction without confirmation (perfectly balanced opening) Example 2: Gap Up Day Scenario: RTH opens at 20,510 Previous day high: 20,460 R1: 20,425 R2: 20,475 What the tables tell you: Gap Context: "GAP UP" (20.5% occurrence) R1 touch: 65.9% probability R2 touch: 42.1% probability S1 touch: Only 15.0% probability Bias: Bullish continuation Trade plan: Favor long setups Target R1 first (65.9% chance), then R2 (42.1%) If R1 breaks, R2 becomes likely target Shorting is low probability (only 15.0% reach S1) Example 3: Opening in Golden Zone Scenario: RTH opens at 20,393 PP: 20,400 GZ: 20,390-20,395 What the tables tell you: Opening Zone: "IN_GZ" (rare, only 3.8% occurrence) Bullish bias: 58.1% GZ touch: 100% (guaranteed - already there) PP touch: 75.3% R1 touch: 41.9% Trade plan: Expect price to test PP (75.3% chance) Slight bullish bias suggests long setups better than shorts Watch how price reacts at PP - likely to continue to R1 (41.9%) This is an uncommon opening, suggesting potential for larger moves Best Practices Match Your Instrument: Remember, statistics are NQ-specific. If trading other instruments, use the levels but disregard the statistical percentages. Combine with Price Action: Use the statistics for probability context, not as standalone signals. Always confirm with price action, volume, and your trading methodology. Adapt Table Display: Don't display all sections all the time. Toggle based on your trading phase: Pre-market: Focus on "Gap Context" to understand the setup Market open: Watch "Opening Zone Statistics" for directional bias Intraday: Monitor "Current Session Info" for position tracking Understand Context: A 60% touch rate doesn't mean guaranteed—it means 40% of days don't touch. Use these probabilities to size positions and manage expectations. Inter-Pivot Golden Zones: These are most useful when price is already in motion toward a level. For example, if price breaks above PP heading to R1, the PP-R1 golden zone (60.8% touch rate) becomes a high-probability pullback area. Time Awareness: The "Avg Time" statistics help you understand urgency. If it's 10:30 AM and S1 hasn't been touched (average is 55 minutes), the window for bearish moves is closing. Technical Notes Time Zone: All times referenced are NY/EST Session Definition: RTH is 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EST Calculation Period: Pivots update daily based on previous 24-hour period (18:00 previous day to 17:00 current day) Data Source: Statistics derived from 12 years of NQ 1-minute futures data (2013-2025) Sample Size: 2,482 complete RTH trading sessions Disclaimer This indicator provides statistical probabilities based on historical NQ futures data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The statistical tables are educational tools and should not be the sole basis for trading decisions. Always: Use proper risk management Combine with your own analysis Understand that probabilities are not certainties Remember that statistics are instrument-specific (NQ/MNQ only) Credits Statistical analysis performed using Python analysis of 12 years of historical NQ futures data. All pivot and golden zone calculations use standard mathematical formulas applicable to any instrument.
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od lucymatos
4H Candle Curves4H Candle Curves - Detailed User Guide OVERVIEW This indicator reveals curve vs continuation behavior in NQ Futures by analyzing how price responds after breaking the first-hour range. Based on 10+ years of statistical analysis (2013-2025, 3,136+ trading days), it identifies which 4-hour sessions exhibit mean reversion (curve) behavior versus trend continuation when Q2 (second hour) breaks Q1 (first hour) extremes. ⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All curve probabilities and statistics were derived from a decade-long dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results. CORE CONCEPT: THE CURVE What is a "Curve"? A curve occurs when price breaks out of the first hour's range in Q2 (hour 2), but then reverses direction in the second half (Q3+Q4) to make a new extreme on the opposite side. Curve Example (Upside Break → Downside Reversal): Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050 Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100 Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price curves back down, makes new LOW below 25,000 Result: Q2 broke high, but second half curved back to make new low below Q1 = CURVE What is "Continuation"? Continuation occurs when Q2 breaks Q1 range and the second half extends further in the same direction. Continuation Example (Upside Break → Further Upside): Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050 Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100 Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price continues higher, makes new HIGH above 25,100 Result: Q2 broke high, second half made new high above Q2 = CONTINUATION THE CRITICAL DISCOVERY: 6AM IS THE CURVE SESSION Curve Probabilities by Session: When Q2 Breaks Q1 HIGH: 6AM: 60.6% curve (new low below Q1) | 38.5% continuation 2AM: 38.4% curve | 46.7% continuation (balanced) 10AM: 17.2% curve | 60.4% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias 6PM: 29.6% curve | 59.0% continuation 10PM: 27.5% curve | 55.1% continuation When Q2 Breaks Q1 LOW: 6AM: 64.4% curve (new high above Q1) | 35.0% continuation ← HIGHEST curve 2AM: 42.8% curve | 43.3% continuation (balanced) 10AM: 16.7% curve | 51.6% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias 6PM: 33.7% curve | 51.1% continuation 10PM: 33.1% curve | 48.6% continuation Key Insight: 6AM is THE ONLY SESSION with >60% curve probability in both directions. This makes it a uniquely exploitable mean reversion session. When Q2 breaks Q1 range during 6AM, expect the second half to curve back 60-64% of the time. 10AM shows the opposite: Strong continuation bias (60% when Q2 breaks high, 52% when Q2 breaks low). 10AM breakouts tend to follow through. HOW IT WORKS: THE QUARTER SYSTEM The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST): Each trading day (6pm-5pm) is divided into six 4-hour periods: 6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open | Blue box 10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session | Purple box 2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London | Orange box 6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open | Green box ← THE CURVE SESSION 10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning | Red box ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION 2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon | Yellow box (3 hours only) The Four Quarters: Each 4-hour candle (except 2PM) is divided into four 1-hour quarters: Q1 (Hour 1, minutes 0-60): Establishes initial range Q2 (Hour 2, minutes 60-120): Tests Q1 range - breaks or holds? Q3 (Hour 3, minutes 120-180): Second half begins Q4 (Hour 4, minutes 180-240): Second half completes 2PM candle only has 3 hours (14:00-17:00), so quarters are adjusted accordingly. The Three-Step Analysis: STEP 1: Q1 Establishes Range The first hour sets the high and low for the session. This becomes the reference range. STEP 2: Q2 Break Detection The indicator monitors whether Q2 (hour 2) breaks above Q1 high or below Q1 low. STEP 3: Second Half Response Once Q2 breaks Q1 range, the indicator tracks what happens in Q3+Q4: Does price CURVE back to make new extreme on opposite side? Does price CONTINUE to make new extreme in same direction? Or does price stay within the established range? VISUAL ELEMENTS EXPLAINED 1. 4-Hour Candle Boxes Colored boxes display the high-to-low range of each 4H candle: Blue = 6PM (evening session start) Purple = 10PM (Asia session) Orange = 2AM (early London) Green = 6AM ← THE CURVE SESSION (watch for mean reversion) Red = 10AM ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION (trend follow-through) Yellow = 2PM (afternoon close, 3 hours only) 2. Quarter Separator Lines Vertical dotted lines mark the boundaries between quarters (1H, 2H, 3H marks). This helps you see: When Q1 ends (after 1 hour) When Q2 ends / second half begins (after 2 hours) When Q3 ends (after 3 hours) 3. Candle Name Labels At the 2-hour mark (Q2/Q3 boundary), a label shows: Candle name (e.g., "6am") Directional indicator: 🔼 = Q2 broke Q1 HIGH 🔽 = Q2 broke Q1 LOW ⚠️ = Q2 broke BOTH Q1 high and low (extended range) No symbol = Q2 stayed within Q1 range THE LIVE STATUS TABLE Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-right), this table shows real-time analysis of the current 4H candle. Header Row: "LIVE: CANDLE" - Shows which 4H session you're currently in Quarter Row: "Quarter: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 (Hour X)" - Shows which quarter you're currently forming STATUS Section: The status updates dynamically based on what has happened: During Q1-Q2 (First Half): "⏳ Q1 Building..." - First hour forming, range being established "⏳ Q2 Building..." - Second hour in progress, Q2 within Q1 range so far "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" - Q2 has broken above Q1 high "🔽 Q2 Broke Q1 LOW" - Q2 has broken below Q1 low "⚠️ Q2 Broke BOTH Q1 Extremes" - Q2 extended range in both directions During Q3-Q4 (Second Half): "✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half reversed to opposite side "✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half extended further same direction "⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" - Q2 broke Q1, waiting to see if curve or continuation "📊 No Q2 Break Occurred" - Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no curve/continuation setup) EXPECTATION Section: Shows the probabilities based on the current state: When Q2 breaks Q1 high in 6AM: EXPECT 2nd half: CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6% CONT (high > Q2): 38.5% This tells you there's a 60.6% chance the second half will curve back to make a new low below Q1, versus 38.5% chance it continues higher above Q2. When curve/continuation is confirmed: Q2 broke high → 2nd half made new LOW below Q1 Curve: 60.6% Shows what actually happened and the historical probability. Color Coding: Purple background = Curve confirmed (mean reversion occurred) Green background = Continuation confirmed (upside extension) Red background = Continuation confirmed (downside extension) Blue background = Second half in progress, watching Yellow background = No Q2 break (no setup) Gray background = Still in first half, building THE CURVE REFERENCE TABLE Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-left), this table provides a quick reference for all sessions. Table Structure: TOP SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 HIGH" BOTTOM SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW" How to Read: "Curve" column = % of time second half makes new extreme on OPPOSITE side "Cont" column = % of time second half makes new extreme in SAME direction "Winner" column = Which behavior is more likely Purple highlight = Curve is the winner (higher %) Blue highlight = Continuation is the winner 🔥 symbol = Strong edge (>60%) Quick Reference Usage: You're in 10AM session, Q2 just broke Q1 high. Look at top section, 10AM row: Curve: 17.2% Cont: 60.4% Winner: CONT Interpretation: 10AM breakouts tend to follow through. Only 17% chance of curving back. Trade with the break, not against it. PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES Example 1: Perfect 6AM Curve Setup Scenario: 6AM candle in progress 7:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,000 - 18,050 7:30 AM: Price breaks above 18,050, reaches 18,075 (Q2 broke Q1 high) Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" Expectation: "CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6%" Trading Decision: Even though price broke to new highs, the 60.6% curve probability suggests looking for short opportunities expecting price to curve back below 18,000 in Q3-Q4. Typical Outcome: 8:15 AM (Q3): Price starts declining 9:15 AM (Q4): Price makes new low at 17,990 Result: ✓ CURVE CONFIRMED Example 2: 10AM Continuation Signal Scenario: 10AM candle in progress 11:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,100 - 18,150 11:45 AM: Price breaks above 18,150, reaches 18,180 (Q2 broke Q1 high) Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" Expectation: "CONT (high > Q2): 60.4%" Trading Decision: With 60.4% continuation probability, breakout likely to follow through. Look for long opportunities expecting extension above 18,180 in Q3-Q4. Typical Outcome: 12:30 PM (Q3): Price continues higher to 18,200 1:15 PM (Q4): Price makes new high at 18,225 Result: ✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED Example 3: Using Reference Table During Live Trading You see Q2 breaking Q1 low during 2AM session: Quick reference check: 2AM row, "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW" section Curve: 42.8% | Cont: 43.3% | Winner: Balanced Interpretation: This is a coin flip - 2AM session is balanced when Q2 breaks low. Don't force a directional bias. Wait for second half price action confirmation or skip the setup. Example 4: No Setup Scenario Scenario: 6AM candle, Q2 ends at 8:00 AM Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no break above or below) Live table shows: "📊 No Q2 Break Occurred" Trading Decision: No curve/continuation setup exists. This analysis only applies when Q2 breaks Q1 range. Monitor for different strategies or wait for next 4H candle. UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY Data Foundation: Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100) Timeframe: 1-minute bars for precise quarter tracking Period: January 2013 - December 2025 Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days Total 4H Candles Analyzed: ~18,800+ individual sessions Analysis Process: For each 4H candle in the dataset: Calculate Q1 high and low (first hour range) Track whether Q2 breaks Q1 high, Q1 low, both, or neither When Q2 breaks Q1 range, measure second half response: Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q1? (curve when Q2 broke high) Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q1? (curve when Q2 broke low) Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke high) Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke low) Calculate percentages for each session Why NQ-Specific? Different futures contracts exhibit different intraday personality: NQ (NASDAQ): Tech-heavy, volatility-prone 6AM shows extreme curve behavior (60-64%) due to NY Open reversal tendency 10AM shows strong continuation (60%) as trends establish ES (S&P 500) would show different probabilities because: Lower volatility than NQ Different institutional participation patterns Different response to macro events The indicator's probabilities are calibrated specifically to NQ behavior patterns. Using it on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce misleading signals. ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION What Makes This Indicator Unique: Quarter-Based Curve Analysis: Unlike traditional indicators that only identify breakouts, this tracks what happens after the breakout. The curve vs continuation framework is novel and provides directional edge. Session-Specific Behavior: Recognizes that 6AM behaves fundamentally differently than 10AM. Most indicators apply the same logic across all sessions. This indicator provides session-specific probabilities. Statistical Validation: Every probability shown is backed by 10+ years of data (2,900+ candles per session). Not based on theory or discretionary observation. Real-Time Quarter Tracking: Precisely identifies which quarter you're in and what stage of the pattern is forming. Provides forward-looking probabilities based on current state. The 6AM Discovery: The 60-64% curve probability in 6AM is a quantified, repeatable edge that contradicts traditional "breakout = continuation" assumptions. This session exhibits mean reversion characteristics that most traders miss. Dual-Direction Analysis: Tracks both upside breaks (Q2 > Q1 high) and downside breaks (Q2 < Q1 low) separately, as they can have different probabilities. Visual Quarter System: The combination of colored boxes, quarter separators, and real-time labels provides instant visual understanding of pattern stage and expected behavior. HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR Step 1: Identify Current 4H Candle Check which colored box you're in and what session it represents. Step 2: Wait for Q2 to Complete The setup doesn't exist until Q2 (hour 2) breaks Q1 range. Monitor the live table. Step 3: Check Q2 Break Status Did Q2 break Q1 high? Q1 low? Both? Or neither? Step 4: Consult Reference Table Look up current session in curve reference table. What's the probability? Step 5: Apply Session-Specific Strategy For 6AM (60-64% curve): Q2 breaks high → Expect curve back for new low Q2 breaks low → Expect curve back for new high Strategy: FADE the Q2 break, look for reversal entries in Q3-Q4 For 10AM (52-60% continuation): Q2 breaks high → Expect continuation higher Q2 breaks low → Expect continuation lower Strategy: TRADE WITH the Q2 break, look for continuation entries in Q3-Q4 For 2AM (38-43% curve, 43-47% continuation): Balanced probabilities Strategy: Wait for Q3 price action to confirm direction, or skip For 6PM/10PM (50-59% continuation): Moderate continuation bias Strategy: Lean with the break but use tight stops Step 6: Monitor Live Status Watch the live table for confirmation: "✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" = Mean reversion occurred "✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" = Follow-through occurred "⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" = Still developing BEST PRACTICES Focus on 6AM for curve trades - This is THE high-probability mean reversion session Focus on 10AM for continuation trades - This is THE high-probability breakout session Be cautious with 2AM - Balanced probabilities mean lower edge Use quarter separators - Enter trades early in Q3 after Q2 break, don't wait for Q4 Combine with price action - Don't blindly fade 6AM or follow 10AM; wait for confirming price structure Respect the 60% rule - 6AM curve happens 60% of time, which means 40% it doesn't. Manage risk accordingly Watch for "No Q2 Break" - If Q2 doesn't break Q1, this analysis doesn't apply Consider overnight context - If 6AM opens with huge gap, curve probability may be affected SETTINGS & CUSTOMIZATION Display Settings: Show 4H Candle Boxes - Toggle colored range boxes Box Colors - Customize color for each session Show Quarter Separators - Show/hide 1H, 2H, 3H lines Show Candle Name Labels - Show/hide session labels at 2H mark Separator Line Style - Solid/Dashed/Dotted Max Historical Candles - How many past 4H candles to display (1-50) Table Settings: Show Live Status Table - Toggle real-time analysis table Show Curve Reference Table - Toggle probability reference table Table Positions - Place tables in any corner Table Text Size - Tiny/Small/Normal LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS NQ FUTURES ONLY - All probabilities are NQ-specific, do not use on other instruments Requires Q2 break - No curve/continuation setup exists if Q2 stays within Q1 range Probabilities, not certainties - 60% means it happens 6 out of 10 times, not every time Lower timeframe noise - 1-minute tracking can be choppy, consider using 5min+ for entries Gap days - Large overnight gaps may affect curve/continuation probabilities Not standalone - Use as confluence with your strategy, not as sole decision factor Historical performance - Past statistics don't guarantee future results WHY THE CURVE CONCEPT MATTERS Traditional trading wisdom says: "Breakout = Continuation" This indicator proves that's not always true. Specifically, during the 6AM session (late London + NY Open), when Q2 breaks the Q1 range, price curves back to the opposite extreme 60-64% of the time. This creates a unique exploitable edge: Most breakout traders go LONG when Q2 breaks Q1 high But in 6AM, 60.6% of the time, price curves back down for new low Shorting the breakout (counter-intuitive) is the higher-probability trade The 10AM session shows the opposite: Breakouts in 10AM tend to follow through (52-60%) Traditional "trade the breakout" strategy works better here By knowing which session you're in, you can adapt your strategy to match the session's personality. FINAL NOTES This indicator distills 10+ years of NQ intraday behavior into actionable, session-specific probabilities. The discovery that 6AM exhibits 60-64% curve behavior while 10AM exhibits 52-60% continuation behavior provides a statistical edge for mean reversion and trend-following traders respectively. The highest-probability setups: 6AM Q2 break → FADE (60-64% edge for curve) 10AM Q2 break → FOLLOW (52-60% edge for continuation) 2AM = SKIP (balanced probabilities, no clear edge) Master the 6AM curve and 10AM continuation first. These two sessions provide the clearest statistical edges. Remember: Trade with proper risk management. This tool provides probabilities based on historical behavior, not predictions of future performance.
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od lucymatos
1
4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis - Detailed User Guide OVERVIEW This indicator is a data-driven probability framework for NQ Futures traders that predicts High-of-Day (HOD) and Low-of-Day (LOD) placement based on statistical analysis of 3,136+ trading days (2013-2025). Unlike traditional indicators that rely on technical signals, this tool uses checkpoint-based state analysis with zero forward-looking bias to provide real-time probabilities of whether the daily range is complete. ⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All probabilities, patterns, and statistics were derived from a 10+ year historical dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results. CORE CONCEPT: CHECKPOINT METHODOLOGY What is a Checkpoint? A checkpoint occurs when a 4-hour candle closes. At this moment, the indicator "locks" the current market state and calculates probabilities for the remainder of the trading day. The key innovation is that state never changes after locking - probabilities remain constant throughout the session until the next checkpoint. The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST): 6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open 10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session 2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London 6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open 10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning 2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon (3 hours only) Five Checkpoints: 10PM Checkpoint - After 6PM closes 2AM Checkpoint - After 10PM closes 6AM Checkpoint - After 2AM closes 10AM Checkpoint - After 6AM closes (most critical) 2PM Checkpoint - After 10AM closes (highest conviction fade signals) HOW IT WORKS: THE THREE-FACTOR STATE SYSTEM At each checkpoint, the indicator evaluates three critical factors to determine probability: 1. ELIMINATIONS (Quantity) An "elimination" occurs when a candle trades beyond a previous candle's high or low, effectively removing that candle from contention for HOD/LOD. Example at 10AM Checkpoint: 6PM high = 18,000 10PM high = 18,050 (eliminates 6PM high) 2AM high = 18,100 (eliminates 10PM high) 6AM high = 18,075 (does NOT eliminate 2AM high) Result: 2 eliminations The number of eliminations indicates trend strength: 0 eliminations = Range-bound, high probability extremes already set 1-2 eliminations = Moderate trend 3-4 eliminations = Strong trend day, range likely to extend 2. STRUCTURE (Pattern Type) The indicator distinguishes between two elimination patterns: Sequential: Eliminations occur in order (6pm → 10pm → 2am → 6am → 10am) Indicates smooth, consistent trend Example: 10pm eliminates 6pm, then 2am eliminates 10pm (sequential) Skip: Eliminations skip candles Indicates choppy/reversal behavior Example: 2am eliminates 6pm but NOT 10pm (skip pattern) Why it matters: Skip patterns show 2X probability differences compared to sequential patterns. At 10AM checkpoint with 2 eliminations, skip pattern shows 64% participation rate vs 36% for sequential pattern with previous survived. 3. PREVIOUS CANDLE STATUS Did the immediately prior candle get eliminated? Eliminated: Previous candle's high/low was taken out Indicates relentless trend Higher probability of continuation Survived: Previous candle's high/low still intact Indicates trend pause Higher probability of mean reversion or range completion Critical insight: High and low are tracked separately. At 2AM checkpoint, 10PM might have eliminated 6PM high (relentless uptrend) but NOT eliminated 6PM low (low survived). This creates different probabilities for HOD vs LOD. VISUAL ELEMENTS 4-Hour Candle Boxes Each 4H candle is displayed as a colored box showing its range: Gray = 6PM (evening) Blue = 10PM (Asia) Purple = 2AM (early London) Orange = 6AM (London + NY Open) - THE CURVE SESSION Teal = 10AM (NY morning) - THE MONEY SESSION Red = 2PM (NY afternoon) - THE FADE SESSION HOD/LOD Lines Black horizontal lines extend from current HOD/LOD with labels showing: Which candle set the extreme Current price level THE CHECKPOINT TABLE EXPLAINED Table Header: Shows current checkpoint (e.g., "🎯 10AM CHECKPOINT") or "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" if between checkpoints. Main Metrics (Side-by-Side Comparison): The table displays HOD and LOD separately in two columns because they can have different patterns: METRIC HODLOD Eliminations Number of candles eliminated so far for highs Number of candles eliminated so far for lows Structure Sequential or Skip pattern for highs Sequential or Skip pattern for lows Prev Candle Was previous candle's high eliminated or did it survive? Was previous candle's low eliminated or did it survive? Pattern Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early Color Coding: Structure Row: White = Sequential (smooth trend) Orange = Skip (choppy/reversal) Previous Candle Row: Red = Eliminated (relentless trend continuing) Blue = Survived (trend paused) Pattern Row: Red = Relentless (previous eliminated + sequential = strong trend) Blue = Paused (previous survived + sequential = trend pause) Orange = Skip/Chop (skip pattern = reversal likely) Gray = Early (0-1 eliminations, too early to tell) Probability Section: Prob Already In: Percentage chance that HOD/LOD has already been set Color coding: Green (>75%) = High confidence extreme is in, FADE Yellow (45-75%) = Moderate confidence Red (<45%) = Low confidence extreme is in, CONTINUATION likely Sample Size: Shows how many historical occurrences match this exact state (n=XXX) Larger samples = higher confidence Most common states have n=500-2,000+ Current: Which candle currently holds HOD/LOD Pattern Guide Section: Appears when you have 2+ eliminations. Provides interpretation: 📈 Paused: Trend has paused, 2pm more likely to set extreme 📈 Relentless: Breaking higher/lower, continuation expected 📈 Skip/Chop: Choppy pattern, next session likely Same for lows with 📉 symbol. PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES Example 1: High Conviction Fade Setup State at 10AM Checkpoint: Eliminations: 0 (both HOD/LOD) Structure: None (no eliminations yet) Prev Candle: Survived Table shows: HOD Prob Already In: 68.9% (n=582) LOD Prob Already In: 73.6% (n=785) Interpretation: Range is likely complete. Fade extremes. With 0 eliminations and 70%+ probability, this is a high-conviction mean reversion signal. Example 2: Strong Continuation Signal State at 10AM Checkpoint: Eliminations: 3 (both HOD/LOD) Structure: Sequential Prev Candle: Eliminated (relentless) Table shows: HOD Prob Already In: 29.8% (n=1,758) LOD Prob Already In: 34.6% (n=1,451) Pattern: 📈 Relentless / 📉 Relentless Interpretation: Strong trend day. Only 30-35% chance range is complete. Look for breakouts in direction of trend. 10AM and 2PM likely to extend range. Example 3: Pattern Structure Edge State at 10AM Checkpoint: Eliminations: 2 (HOD) Structure: Skip (orange background) Prev Candle: Eliminated vs Alternative State: Eliminations: 2 (HOD) Structure: Sequential Prev Candle: Survived Result: Skip pattern shows 64% chance 10AM participates vs 36% for sequential+survived. Skip pattern = 2X more likely to see 10AM high. This structural edge is unique to this indicator. Example 4: Different HOD vs LOD Patterns State at 10AM Checkpoint: HOD: 2 eliminations, Sequential, Previous Eliminated (Relentless) = 46.7% in LOD: 2 eliminations, Skip, Previous Eliminated (Choppy) = 48.4% in Interpretation: Highs show relentless uptrend but lows show choppy behavior. This divergence suggests potential for upside continuation but with volatility. Not a clean trend day. KEY CHECKPOINT STATISTICS (DERIVED FROM 10-YEAR DATASET) 10PM Checkpoint (After 6PM): Very early in day 13.5% HOD in, 21.3% LOD in Most likely outcome: Range extends into 6AM/10AM 2AM Checkpoint (After 10PM): Still early With 0 elims: 22-31% in (balanced) With 1 elim: 8-12% in (strong trend signal) 6AM Checkpoint (After 2AM) - Critical Decision Point: With 0 elims: 40-47% in (balanced, could go either way) With 2 elims: 18-22% in (strong trend into 6AM/10AM) Most likely outcome: 10AM sets extremes (~38-40%) 10AM Checkpoint (After 6AM) - Highest Conviction: With 0 elims: 69-74% in → FADE (high confidence) With 3 elims: 30-35% in → BUY/SELL continuation This is THE money checkpoint for high-probability setups 2PM Checkpoint (After 10AM) - Maximum Fade Conviction: With 0-3 elims: 67-95% in → FADE strongly With 4 elims: 49-61% in (monster trend, weaker fade) 2PM is primarily a mean reversion session UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING DATA All probabilities are derived from analysis of: Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100) Timeframe: 1-minute bars Period: January 2013 - December 2025 Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days Methodology: Real-time checkpoint analysis with zero forward-looking bias Why NQ-Specific? Each futures contract has unique: Session characteristics (6AM in NQ shows 60-64% curve behavior, other sessions differ) Timing patterns (NQ's 10AM session has 67-74% immediate takeouts) Volatility profiles (NQ 2PM shows 56% bullish bias vs ES shows different bias) Using this indicator on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce inaccurate results because the probability tables are NQ-specific. ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION What Makes This Indicator Unique: Zero Forward-Looking Bias: State locks at checkpoint moments. Traditional indicators recalculate continuously, introducing bias. This indicator freezes probabilities at the exact moment a 4H candle closes. Three-Factor State System: Combines elimination count, structure pattern, and previous candle status. Most indicators only track one dimension. This multi-factor approach provides 2X+ probability differentials. Separate HOD/LOD Tracking: Highs and lows can have different patterns simultaneously (relentless high with choppy low). This indicator tracks them separately for precision. Pattern Structure Analysis: Distinguishes between sequential and skip patterns, a concept not found in standard indicators. Skip patterns show mean reversion while sequential shows continuation. 10+ Year Statistical Foundation: Every probability is backed by hundreds to thousands of historical occurrences (sample sizes shown in table). Not based on theories or assumptions. Checkpoint-Specific Probabilities: Different checkpoints have different probability profiles. 10AM checkpoint with 0 eliminations = 70%+ fade. 6AM checkpoint with same state = 40%+ fade. Context matters. HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR Step 1: Wait for Checkpoint The table will show "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" until a 4H candle closes. Probabilities are only valid at checkpoint moments. Step 2: Read the State Check the three factors: How many eliminations? Sequential or skip? Previous candle eliminated or survived? Step 3: Check Probability Look at "Prob Already In" percentage: >75% (Green) = High confidence extreme is set, fade 45-75% (Yellow) = Moderate confidence, use other confirmation <45% (Red) = Low confidence extreme is set, continuation likely Step 4: Check Sample Size Larger sample (n=1,000+) = higher confidence Smaller sample (n=50-200) = use caution, edge is real but less robust Step 5: Consider Pattern Read the pattern guide: Relentless = trend continuing Paused = trend stalled, mean reversion Skip/Chop = reversal/range likely Step 6: Compare HOD vs LOD If both show similar patterns = cleaner signal If divergent patterns = complex day, be cautious BEST PRACTICES Focus on 10AM and 2PM checkpoints - These have the highest conviction signals Combine with price action - Don't fade blindly at 90% probability if price is breaking out strongly Larger samples = better edges - Prioritize setups with n=500+ Watch for pattern divergence - When HOD and LOD show different patterns, expect complexity Remember session characteristics: 6AM = THE CURVE SESSION (60-64% mean reversion when Q2 breaks Q1) 10AM = THE MONEY SESSION (67-74% immediate takeouts, highest conviction) 2PM = THE FADE SESSION (67-95% extremes already in) SETTINGS Show 4H Candle Boxes - Display colored boxes for each 4H candle Show HOD/LOD Lines - Display horizontal lines at current extremes Show Checkpoint Analysis - Display probability table Table Position - Choose where to place the checkpoint table Table Size - Tiny/Small/Normal Colors - Customize box colors for each session LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS NQ FUTURES ONLY - Do not use on other instruments Not a standalone system - Use as confluence with your strategy Historical data - Past performance doesn't guarantee future results Sample size variance - Some states have smaller samples, use judgment Requires understanding - Read this guide fully before trading with this tool FINAL NOTES This indicator represents 10+ years of NQ futures data distilled into actionable, real-time probabilities. The checkpoint methodology ensures zero forward-looking bias, while the three-factor state system provides granular edge that traditional indicators miss. Remember: This tool provides probabilities, not certainties. Trade with proper risk management, and use this as one input in your decision-making process.
Wskaźnik Pine Script®
od lucymatos
First presented FVG (w/stats) w/statistical hourly ranges & biasOverview This indicator identifies the first Fair Value Gap (FVG) that forms during each hourly session and provides comprehensive statistical analysis based on 12 years of historical NASDAQ (NQ) data. It combines price action analysis with probability-based statistics to help traders make informed decisions. ⚠️ IMPORTANT - Compatibility Market: This indicator is designed exclusively for NASDAQ futures (NQ/MNQ) Timeframe: Statistical data is based on FVGs formed on the 5-minute timeframe FVG Detection: Works on any timeframe, but use 5-minute for accuracy matching the statistical analysis All hardcoded statistics are derived from 12 years of NQ historical data What It Does 1. FVG Detection & Visualization Automatically detects the first FVG (bullish or bearish) that forms each hour Draws colored boxes around FVGs: Blue boxes = Bullish FVG (gap up) Red boxes = Bearish FVG (gap down) FVG boxes extend to the end of the hour Optional midpoint lines show the center of each FVG Uses volume imbalance logic (outside prints) to refine FVG boundaries 2. Hourly Reference Lines Vertical Delimiter: Marks the start of each hour Hourly Open Line: Shows where the current hour opened Expected Range Lines: Projects the anticipated high/low based on historical data Choose between Mean (average) or Median (middle value) statistics Upper range line (teal/green) Lower range line (red) All lines span exactly one hour from the moment it opens Optional labels show price values at line ends 3. Real-Time Statistics Table The table displays live data for the current hour only: Hour: Current hour in 12-hour format (AM/PM) FVG Status: Shows if a Bull FVG, Bear FVG, or no FVG has formed yet Green background = Bullish FVG detected Red background = Bearish FVG detected 1st 15min: Direction of the first 15 minutes (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral/Pending) Continuation %: Historical probability that the hour continues in the first 15-minute direction Color-coded: Green for bullish, red for bearish Avg Range %: Expected percentage range for the current hour (based on 12-year mean) FVG Effect %: Historical probability that FVG direction predicts hourly close direction Shows BISI→Bull % for bullish FVGs Shows SIBI→Bear % for bearish FVGs Blank if no FVG has formed yet Time Left: Countdown timer showing MM:SS remaining in the hour (updates in real-time) Hourly Bias: Historical directional tendency (bullish % or bearish %) H Open: Current hour's opening price Exp Range: Projected price range (Low - High) based on historical average Customization Options Detection Settings: Lower Timeframe Selection (15S, 1min, 5min) - controls FVG detection granularity Display Settings: FVG box colors (bullish/bearish) Midpoint lines (show/hide, color, style) Table Settings: Position (9 locations: corners, edges, center) Text size (Tiny, Small, Normal, Large) Hourly Lines: Toggle each line type on/off Hour delimiter (color, width) Open line (color, width, style) Range lines (color, width, style) Choose Mean or Median statistics for range calculation Show/hide labels with customizable text size How to Use Apply to NQ futures chart (NQ1! or MNQ1!) Set chart to 5-minute timeframe for optimal FVG detection matching the statistical data Watch for the first FVG to form each hour Reference the table for probability-based decision support: High continuation % = strong directional bias FVG Effect % shows reliability of the FVG signal Time Left helps manage entries/exits within the hour Use range lines as potential targets or reversal zones Statistical Foundation All statistics are derived from: 12 years of NASDAQ (NQ) historical data Hourly analysis of FVG formation patterns First 15-minute directional analysis Mean and Median calculations for range expectations Data encompasses 2,400+ samples per hour Best Practices ✅ Use on NQ/MNQ futures only ✅ Best on 5-minute charts (matches statistical data) ✅ Combine FVG signals with continuation probabilities ✅ Use range lines as potential profit targets ✅ Watch the countdown timer for hour-end setups ❌ Do not use on other markets (statistics won't apply) ❌ Avoid using during low-liquidity hours (5PM ET has minimal data) Technical Notes Timezone: America/New_York (EST/EDT) Weekend filtering: Automatically hides data during market closure Updates in real-time on live bars Maximum 500 boxes/lines for performance FVG detection includes volume imbalance (body gap) refinement Credits Statistical analysis based on 12 years of NASDAQ historical data. FVG detection methodology follows ICT concepts with volume imbalance refinement. Disclaimer: This indicator provides statistical analysis based on historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management. Would you like me to adjust any section or add/remove anything?6-9 Session & Levels - Customizable Range Analysis Indicator Description: This indicator provides comprehensive session-based range analysis designed for intraday traders. It calculates and displays key levels based on a customizable session period (default 6:00-9:00 AM ET). Core Features: Sespastedthis is a summary for another indicator- i was hoping for something more like this in terms of content etc22:23Architected comprehensive indicator summary matching professional documentation style.The user wants me to rewrite the summary for their FVG indicator in a similar style to the example provided. The example is more structured, detailed, and professional. Let me create a comprehensive summary that follows that format: Clear title Description/Overview Core Features (broken down into sections) Input Settings Explained (detailed breakdown of all customization options) How It Works section Use Case Note/Disclaimer Let me make it thorough and match the style while being accurate to their indicator's functionality.Here's a detailed summary in that format: Every Hour 1st FVG with Statistical Analysis - NASDAQ Hourly Trading Intelligence Description: This indicator identifies the first Fair Value Gap (FVG) that forms during each hourly session and provides comprehensive probability-based statistical analysis derived from 12 years of NASDAQ (NQ) historical data. It combines real-time FVG detection with hardcoded statistical probabilities to help intraday traders make informed decisions based on historical patterns and hourly price action dynamics. IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically calibrated for NASDAQ futures (NQ/MNQ) only. All statistical data is derived from 12 years of NQ historical analysis with FVGs detected on the 5-minute timeframe. Using this indicator on other markets will produce invalid statistical results. Core Features: FVG Detection & Visualization Automatically detects and displays the first Fair Value Gap (bullish or bearish) that forms within each hourly session Color-coded boxes mark FVG zones: Blue for bullish FVGs (gap up), Red for bearish FVGs (gap down) FVG boxes extend precisely to the end of the hour boundary Optional midpoint lines show the center point of each FVG Uses volume imbalance logic (outside prints) to refine FVG boundaries beyond simple wick-to-wick gaps Supports both chart timeframe detection and lower timeframe detection via request.security_lower_tf Hourly Reference Lines Vertical Hour Delimiter: Marks the exact start of each new hour with an extendable vertical line Hourly Open Line: Displays the opening price of the current hour Expected Range Lines: Projects anticipated high and low levels based on 12 years of statistical data Choose between Mean (average) or Median (middle value) calculations Upper range line shows expected high Lower range line shows expected low All lines span exactly one hour from open to close Optional labels display exact price values at the end of each line Real-Time Statistics Table Displays comprehensive live data for the current hour only: Hour: Current hour in 12-hour format (e.g., "9AM", "2PM") FVG Status: Shows detection state with color coding "None Yet" (white background) - No FVG detected "Bull FVG" (green background) - Bullish FVG identified "Bear FVG" (red background) - Bearish FVG identified 1st 15min: Direction of first 15 minutes (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral/Pending) Continuation %: Historical probability that the hour closes in the direction of the first 15 minutes Green background with up arrow (↑) for bullish continuation probability Red background with down arrow (↓) for bearish continuation probability Avg Range %: Expected percentage range for the current hour based on 12-year mean FVG Effect %: Historical effectiveness of FVG directional prediction Shows "BISI→Bull %" for bullish FVGs (gap up predicting bullish hourly close) Shows "SIBI→Bear %" for bearish FVGs (gap down predicting bearish hourly close) Displays blank if no FVG has formed yet Time Left: Real-time countdown timer showing minutes and seconds remaining in the hour (MM:SS format) Hourly Bias: Historical directional tendency showing bullish or bearish percentage bias H Open: Current hour's opening price Exp Range: Projected price range showing "Low - High" based on selected statistic (mean or median) Input Settings Explained: Detection Settings Lower Timeframe: Select the base timeframe for FVG detection Options: 15S (15 seconds), 1 (1 minute), 5 (5 minutes) Recommendation: Use 5-minute to match the statistical data sample The indicator uses this timeframe to scan for FVG patterns even when viewing higher timeframes Display Settings Bullish FVG Color: Set the color and transparency for bullish (upward) FVG boxes Bearish FVG Color: Set the color and transparency for bearish (downward) FVG boxes Show Midpoint Lines: Toggle horizontal lines at the center of each FVG box Midpoint Line Color: Customize the midpoint line color Midpoint Line Style: Choose between Solid, Dotted, or Dashed line styles Table Settings Table Position: Choose from 9 locations: Top: Left, Center, Right Middle: Left, Center, Right Bottom: Left, Center, Right Table Text Size: Select from Tiny, Small, Normal, or Large for readability on different screen sizes Hourly Lines Settings Show Hourly Lines: Master toggle for all hourly reference lines Show Hour Delimiter: Toggle the vertical line marking each hour's start Delimiter Color: Customize color and transparency Delimiter Width: Set line thickness (1-5) Show Hourly Open: Toggle the horizontal line at the hour's opening price Open Line Color: Customize color Open Line Width: Set thickness (1-5) Open Line Style: Choose Solid, Dashed, or Dotted Show Range Lines: Toggle the expected high/low projection lines Range Statistic: Choose "Mean" (12-year average) or "Median" (12-year middle value) Range High Color: Customize upper range line color and transparency Range Low Color: Customize lower range line color and transparency Range Line Width: Set thickness (1-5) Range Line Style: Choose Solid, Dashed, or Dotted Show Line Labels: Toggle price labels at the end of all horizontal lines Label Text Size: Choose Tiny, Small, or Normal How It Works: FVG Detection Logic: The indicator scans price action on the selected lower timeframe (default: 1-minute) looking for Fair Value Gaps using a 3-candle pattern: Bullish FVG: Formed when candle 's high is below candle 's low, creating an upward gap Bearish FVG: Formed when candle 's low is above candle 's high, creating a downward gap The detection is refined using volume imbalance logic by checking for body gaps (outside prints) on both sides of the middle candle. This narrows the FVG zone to areas where bodies don't touch, indicating stronger imbalances. Only the first FVG that forms during each hour is displayed. If a bullish FVG forms first, it takes priority. The FVG box is drawn from the formation time through to the end of the hour. Statistical Analysis: All probability statistics are hardcoded from 12 years (2,400+ samples per hour) of NASDAQ futures analysis: First 15-Minute Direction: At 15 minutes into each hour, the indicator determines if price closed above, below, or equal to the hour's opening price Continuation Probability: Historical analysis shows the likelihood that the hour closes in the same direction as the first 15 minutes Example: If 9AM's first 15 minutes are bullish, there's a 60.1% chance the entire 9AM hour closes bullish (lowest continuation hour) 4PM shows the highest continuation at 86.1% for bullish first 15 minutes FVG Effectiveness: Tracks how often the first FVG's direction correctly predicts the hourly close direction BISI (Bullish Imbalance/Sell-side Inefficiency) → Bullish close probability SIBI (Bearish Imbalance/Buy-side Inefficiency) → Bearish close probability Range Expectations: Mean and median values represent typical price movement percentage for each hour 9AM and 10AM show the largest ranges (~0.6%) 5PM shows minimal range (~0.06%) due to low liquidity Hourly Reference Lines: When each new hour begins: Vertical delimiter marks the hour's start Hourly open line plots at the first bar's opening price Range projection lines calculate expected high/low: Upper Range = Hourly Open + (Range% / 100 × Hourly Open) Lower Range = Hourly Open - (Range% / 100 × Hourly Open) Lines extend exactly to the hour's end time Labels appear at line endpoints showing exact prices Real-Time Updates: FVG Status: Updates immediately when the first FVG forms First 15min Direction: Locked in at the 15-minute mark Countdown Timer: Uses timenow to update every second Table Statistics: Refresh on every bar close Timezone Handling: All times are in America/New_York (Eastern Time) Automatically filters weekend periods (Saturday and Sunday before 6PM) Hour detection accounts for daylight saving time changes Use Cases: Intraday Trading Strategy Development: FVG Entry Signals: Use the first hourly FVG as a directional bias Bullish FVG + High continuation % = Strong long setup Bearish FVG + High continuation % = Strong short setup First 15-Minute Breakout: Combine first 15-min direction with continuation probabilities Wait for first 15 minutes to complete If continuation % is above 70%, trade in that direction Example: 4PM bullish first 15 min = 86.1% chance hour closes bullish Range Targeting: Use expected high/low lines as profit targets or reversal zones Price approaching mean high = potential resistance Price approaching mean low = potential support Compare mean vs median for different risk tolerance (median is more conservative) Hour Selection: Focus trading on hours with: High FVG effectiveness (11AM: 81.5% BISI→Bull) High continuation rates (4PM: 86.1% bull continuation) Avoid low-continuation hours like 9AM (60.1%) Time Management: Use the countdown timer to: Enter early in the hour when FVG forms Exit before hour-end if no follow-through Avoid late-hour entries with <15 minutes remaining Statistical Edge Identification: Compare current hour's FVG against historical effectiveness Identify when first 15-min direction contradicts FVG direction (conflict = caution) Use hourly bias to confirm or contradict FVG signals Monitor if price stays within expected range or breaks out (outlier moves) Risk Management: Expected range lines provide logical stop-loss placement FVG Effect % helps size positions (higher % = larger position) Time Left countdown aids in time-based stop management Avoid trading hours with neutral bias or low continuation rates Statistical Foundation: All embedded statistics are derived from: 12 years of NASDAQ futures (NQ) continuous contract data 5-minute timeframe FVG detection methodology 24 hours per day analysis (excluding weekends) 2,400+ samples per hour for robust statistical validity America/New_York timezone for session alignment Data includes: Hourly range analysis (mean, median, standard deviation) First 15-minute directional analysis FVG formation frequency and effectiveness Continuation probability matrices Bullish/bearish bias percentages Best Practices: ✅ Do: Use exclusively on NASDAQ futures (NQ1! or MNQ1!) Apply on 5-minute charts for optimal FVG detection matching statistical samples Wait for first 15 minutes to complete before acting on continuation probabilities Combine FVG signals with continuation % and FVG Effect % for confluence Use expected range lines as initial profit targets Monitor the countdown timer for time-based trade management Focus on hours with high statistical edges (4PM, 11AM, 10AM) ❌ Don't: Use on other markets (ES, RTY, YM, stocks, forex, crypto) - statistics will be invalid Rely solely on FVG without confirming with continuation probabilities Trade during low-liquidity hours (5PM shows only 0.06% average range) Ignore the first 15-minute direction when it conflicts with FVG direction Apply to timeframes significantly different from 5-minute for FVG detection Use median range expectations aggressively (they're conservative) Technical Implementation Notes: Timezone: Fixed to America/New_York with automatic DST adjustment Weekend Filtering: Automatically hides data Saturday and Sunday before 6PM ET Performance: Maximum 500 boxes and 500 lines for optimal chart rendering Update Frequency: Table updates on every bar close; timer updates every second using timenow FVG Priority: Bullish FVGs take precedence when both form simultaneously Lower Timeframe Detection: Uses request.security_lower_tf for accurate sub-chart-timeframe FVG detection Precision: All price labels use format.mintick for appropriate decimal precision Big thanks to @Trades-Dont-Lie for the FPFVG code in his excellent indicator that I've used here
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