Trinity Multi-Timeframe MA TrendOriginal script can be found here: {Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis } www.tradingview.com
1. all credit the original author www.tradingview.com
2. why change this script:
- added full transparency function to each EMA
- changed to up and down arrows
- change the dashboard to be able to resize and reposition
How to Use This Indicator
This indicator, "Trinity Multi-Timeframe MA Trend," is designed for TradingView and helps visualize Exponential Moving Average (EMA) trends across multiple timeframes. It plots EMAs on your chart, fills areas between them with directional colors (up or down), shows crossover/crossunder labels, and displays a dashboard table summarizing EMA directions (bullish ↑ or bearish ↓) for selected timeframes. It's useful for multi-timeframe analysis in trading strategies, like confirming trends before entries.
Configure Settings (via the Gear Icon on the Indicator Title):
Timeframes Group: Set up to 5 custom timeframes (e.g., "5" for 5 minutes, "60" for 1 hour). These determine the multi-timeframe analysis in the dashboard. Defaults: 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 5h.
EMA Group: Adjust the lengths of the 5 EMAs (defaults: 5, 10, 20, 50, 200). These are the moving averages plotted on the chart.
Colors (Inline "c"): Choose uptrend color (default: lime/green) and downtrend color (default: purple). These apply to plots, fills, labels, and dashboard cells.
Transparencies Group: Set transparency levels (0-100) for each EMA's plot and fill (0 = opaque, 100 = fully transparent). Defaults decrease from EMA1 (80) to EMA5 (0) for a gradient effect.
Dashboard Settings Group (newly added):
Dashboard Position: Select where the table appears (Top Right, Top Left, Bottom Right, Bottom Left).
Dashboard Size: Choose text size (Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, Huge) to scale the table for better visibility on crowded charts.
Understanding the Visuals:
EMA Plots: Five colored lines on the chart (EMA1 shortest, EMA5 longest). Color changes based on direction: uptrend (your selected up color) if rising, downtrend (down color) if falling.
Fills Between EMAs: Shaded areas between consecutive EMAs, colored and transparent based on the faster EMA's direction and your transparency settings.
Crossover Labels: Arrow labels (↑ for crossover/uptrend start, ↓ for crossunder/downtrend start) appear on the chart at EMA direction changes, with tooltips like "EMA1".
Dashboard Table (top-right by default):
Rows: EMA1 to EMA5 (with lengths shown).
Columns: Selected timeframes (converted to readable format, e.g., "5m", "1h").
Cells: ↑ (bullish/up) or ↓ (bearish/down) arrows, colored green/lime or purple based on trend, with fading transparency for visual hierarchy.
Use this to quickly check alignment across timeframes (e.g., all ↑ in multiple TFs might signal a strong uptrend).
Trading Tips:
Trend Confirmation: Look for alignment where most EMAs in higher timeframes are ↑ (bullish) or ↓ (bearish).
Entries/Exits: Use crossovers on the chart EMAs as signals, confirmed by the dashboard (e.g., enter long if lower TF EMA crosses up and higher TFs are aligned).
Customization: On lower timeframe charts, set dashboard timeframes to higher ones for top-down analysis. Adjust transparencies to avoid chart clutter.
Limitations: This is a trend-following tool; combine with volume, support/resistance, or other indicators. Backtest on historical data before live use.
Performance: Works best on trending markets; may whipsaw in sideways conditions.
Wyszukaj w skryptach "N+credit最新动态"
IV Rank (tasty-style) — VIXFix / HV ProxyIV Rank (tasty-style) — VIXFix / HV Proxy
Overview
This indicator replicates tastytrade’s IV Rank calculation—but built entirely inside TradingView.
Because TradingView does not expose live option-chain implied volatility, the script lets you choose between two widely used price-based IV proxies:
VIXFix (Williams VIX Fix): a fast-reacting volatility estimate derived from price extremes.
HV(30): 30-day annualized historical volatility of daily log returns.
The goal is to approximate the “rich vs. cheap” option volatility environment that traders use to decide whether to sell or buy premium.
Formula
IV Rank answers the question: Where is current implied volatility relative to its own 1-year range?
𝐼
𝑉
𝑅
=
𝐼
𝑉
𝑐
𝑢
𝑟
𝑟
𝑒
𝑛
𝑡
−
𝐼
𝑉
1
𝑦
𝐿
𝑜
𝑤
𝐼
𝑉
1
𝑦
𝐻
𝑖
𝑔
ℎ
−
𝐼
𝑉
1
𝑦
𝐿
𝑜
𝑤
×
100
IVR=
IV
1yHigh
−IV
1yLow
IV
current
−IV
1yLow
×100
IVcurrent: Current value of the chosen IV proxy.
IV1yHigh/Low: Highest and lowest proxy values over the user-defined lookback (default 252 trading days ≈ 1 year).
IVR = 0 → Current IV equals its 1-year low
IVR = 100 → Current IV equals its 1-year high
IVR ≈ 50 → Current IV sits mid-range
How to Use
High IV Rank (≥50–60%)
Options are relatively expensive → short-premium strategies (credit spreads, iron condors, straddles) may be more attractive.
Low IV Rank (≤20%)
Options are relatively cheap → long-premium strategies (debit spreads, calendars, diagonals) may offer better risk/reward.
Combine with your own analysis, liquidity checks, and risk management.
Inputs & Customization
IV Source: Choose “VIXFix” or “HV(30)” as the volatility proxy.
IVR Lookback: Rolling window for 1-year high/low (default 252 trading days).
VIXFix Parameters: Length and stdev multiplier to fine-tune sensitivity.
Info Label: Optional on-chart label displays current IV proxy, 1-year high/low, and IV Rank.
Alerts: Optional alerts when IVR crosses 50, falls below 20, or rises above 80.
Notes & Limitations
This indicator does not pull real option-chain IV.
It provides a close structural analogue to tastytrade’s IV Rank using price-derived proxies for markets where options data is not directly available.
For live option IV, use broker platforms or third-party data feeds alongside this script.
Tags: IV Rank, Implied Volatility, Tastytrade, VIXFix, Historical Volatility, Options, Premium Selling, Debit Spreads, Market Volatility
BK AK-Flag Formations🏴☠️ Introducing BK AK-Flag Formations — Raise the standard. Drive the line. Continue the assault. 🏴☠️
Built for traders who exploit momentum with discipline: flagpoles, flags, and pennants detected, tagged, and briefed—so you can press advantage instead of hesitating.
🎖️ Full Credit
The pattern engine, detection logic, and architecture are Trendoscope—one of the absolute best coders on TradingView and the original creator of this indicator’s core. I asked for interface upgrades and knew he was deep in other builds, so I forged the add-ons and released them for the community that values them.
My enhancements (on top of Trendoscope):
Label transparency (text + background)
Short-form labels (BF/BeF/BP/BeP/…)
Transparency controls for short-form labels
Hover tooltips with full pattern name + bullish/bearish bias (toggle)
Everything else is Trendoscope. Respect where it’s due.
🧠 What It Does
Locks onto flags and pennants after strong impulses (flagpoles).
Prints clean battlefield tags (BF, BeF, BP, BeP…) so the setup is obvious without burying price.
Mouse-over for the brief: full pattern name + directional bias exactly when you need it.
Multi-zigzag sweep for micro→macro detection, overlap control, bar-ratio verification, max-pattern caps, dark/light aware palette + custom colors.
🧭 Read the Continuation
BF — Bull Flag: strong pole, orderly pullback; look for break and measured move continuity.
BP — Bull Pennant: tight triangle after thrust; expansion confirms carry.
BeF — Bear Flag: weak rallies in a downtrend; break = continuation lower.
BeP — Bear Pennant: compressed pause beneath resistance; release favors trend.
Standards are not decoration—they are orders.
🤝 Acknowledgments
Original engine & libraries: Trendoscope (legend).
Enhancement layer (UX): transparency, short codes, tooltip system — BK.
Mentor: A.K. — clarity, patience, judgment. His discipline guides every choice here.
🫡 Give Forward
Don’t be cheap with your knowledge. If my indicators sharpen your edge:
Teach someone to read structure with discipline.
Share your process, not just screenshots.
Contribute code, context, or courage to those behind you.
Tools are force multipliers. Character decides how they’re used.
🙏 Final Word
“Plans are established by counsel; by wise guidance wage war.” — Proverbs 20:18
Impulse → formation → continuation.
Raise the banner, hold formation, and execute with wisdom.
BK AK-Flag Formations — when the standard rises, the line advances.
Gd bless. 🙏
BK AK-Warfare Formations👑 Introducing BK AK-Warfare Formations — Form the pride. Take the high ground. Strike with wisdom. 👑
This is my 9th release—built for traders who think like commanders: see the formation, decide the maneuver, deliver the strike.
🎖️ Full Credit
The pattern engine, detection logic, and architecture come from Trendoscope—one of the absolute best coders on TradingView and the original creator of this indicator’s core.
I asked for a few interface upgrades and knew he was driving bigger builds. So I forged the add-ons myself and am releasing them for those who value a cleaner, more tactical read.
My enhancements (on top of Trendoscope):
Label transparency (text + background)
Short-form pattern codes (AC/DC/RC/RWE/...)
Transparency controls for short-form labels
Hover tooltips with full pattern name + bullish/bearish/neutral bias (toggle)
Everything else is Trendoscope. Respect where it’s due.
🧠 What It Does
Auto-detects Channels, Wedges (expanding/contracting), and Triangles (ascending/descending/converging/diverging).
Prints clean battlefield tags (AC, DC, RWE, …) so structure is visible without drowning price.
Hover for the brief: long name + directional bias exactly when you need it.
Multi-zigzag sweep, overlap control, bar-ratio verification, max-pattern caps, dark/light aware palette + custom colors.
🧭 Read the Battlefield
AC — Ascending Channel: trend carry; respect higher-lows and ride the lane.
RWE — Rising Wedge: distribution bias; watch the fracture and the retest.
Converging/Diverging Triangles: compression → expansion; stage entries at the edges.
DC — Descending Channel: late down-leg + momentum shift = tactical long.
Structure is the map. Bias is the compass. Your risk plan is the sword.
🤝 Acknowledgments
Original engine & libraries: Trendoscope (legend).
Enhancement layer (UX): transparency, short codes, tooltip system — BK.
Mentor: A.K. — discipline, patience, and clarity. His standard lives in every decision here.
🫡 Give Forward
Don’t be cheap with your knowledge. If my indicators sharpen your edge:
Teach someone how to read formations with discipline.
Share your process, not just screenshots.
Contribute code, context, or courage to those behind you.
A king’s wisdom multiplies the camp. A lion’s courage protects the pride.
🙏 Final Word
“By wise guidance you will wage your war, and victory lies in many counselors.” — Proverbs 24:6
See the array. Choose the strike. Lead with wisdom.
BK AK-Warfare Formations — where formation meets judgment, and judgment meets execution.
Gd bless. 🙏
DaDaSto Current / Previous D, W, M High/Low
This script plots the current and previous Month/Week/Day High and Low. It allows for custom color and label inputs.
The original script credit to @The-Hunter
Ark FCI OscillatorFinancial Conditions Index Oscillator
This indicator tracks week-over-week changes in the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), providing a dynamic view of evolving financial conditions in the United States.
Overview
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) is a comprehensive weekly composite index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It measures financial conditions across U.S. money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and shadow banking systems.
Interpretation
Positive values indicate improving financial conditions
Negative values signal deteriorating financial conditions
Risk assets demonstrate particular sensitivity to changes in financial conditions, making this oscillator valuable for market timing and risk assessment.
Alternative Data Source
Users can modify the source to FRED:NFCIRISK to focus specifically on risk dynamics. The NFCIRISK subindex isolates volatility and funding risk measures within the financial sector, capturing market volatility indicators and liquidity shortage probabilities while excluding broader credit and leverage conditions.
Swing Highs/Lows & Candle Patterns[LuxAlgo] [Filtered]Swing Highs/Lows & Candle Patterns - Tweaked Version
This indicator is a customized and enhanced version of LuxAlgo’s original Swing Highs/Lows & Candle Patterns indicator. It identifies and labels critical swing high and swing low points to help visualize market structure, alongside detecting key reversal candlestick patterns such as Hammer, Inverted Hammer, Bullish Engulfing, Hanging Man, Shooting Star, and Bearish Engulfing.
With added options to selectively display only Lower Highs (LH) and Higher Lows (HL), this tweaked version offers greater flexibility for traders focusing on specific market dynamics. Users can also customize the lookback length and label styling to fit their preferences.
Credit to LuxAlgo for the original concept and foundation of this powerful tool, which this script builds upon to support more tailored technical analysis. Ideal for swing traders and technical analysts seeking improved entry and exit signals through a combination of price swings and candlestick pattern recognition.
How to avoid repainting when using security() - viewing optionsHow to avoid repainting when using the security() - Edited PineCoders FAQ with more viewing options
This may be of value to a limited few, but I've introduced a set of Boolean inputs to PineCoders' original script because viewing all the various security lines at once was giving me a brain cramp. I wanted to study each behavior one-by-one. This version (also updated to PineScript v6) will allow users to selectively display each, or any combination, of the security plots. Each plot was updated to include a condition tied to its corresponding input, ensuring it only appears when explicitly enabled. The label-rendering logic only displays when its related plot is active; however, I've also added an input that allows you to remove all labels, enabling you to see the price action more clearly (the labels can sometimes obscure what you want to see). Run this script in replay mode to view the nuanced differences between the 12 methods while selecting/deselecting the desired plots (selecting all at once can be overcrowded and confusing).
All thanks and credit to PineCoders--these changes I made only provide more control over what’s shown on the chart without altering the core structure or intent of the original script. It helped me, so I thought I should share it. If I inadvertently messed something up, please let me know, and I will try to fix it.
I set the defaults for viewing monthly security functions on the daily timeframe. Only the first 2 security functions plot with the default settings, so change the settings as needed. Be sure to read the original notes and detailed explanations in the PineCoders posting "How to avoid repainting when using security() - PineCoders FAQ."
Bottom line, you should use one of the two functions: f_secureSecurity or f_security, depending on what you are trying to do. Hopefully, this script will make it a little easier for the visual learner to understand why (use replay mode or watch live price action on a lower timeframe).
Divergences v2.4 [LTB][SPTG]Open-source credit & license
Original author: LonesomeTheBlue.
This fork by: sirpipthegreat — with attribution to the original work.
License: Open-source, published under the MPL-2.0 (same license header in the code).
I am publishing this open-source in accordance with TradingView’s Open-source reuse rules.
What’s new:
- Fixes & stability (addresses “historical offset beyond buffer” errors)
- Capped and validated all historical indexing with guarded lookbacks (e.g., min(…, 200) style limits) to prevent referencing data beyond the buffer on shorter histories/thin symbols.
- Refactored highest/lowest bars scans to obey the cap and avoid cumulative overflows on long sessions.
- Added per-bar counters with safety clamps to ensure it never exceeds available history.
- Ensured HTF switching doesn’t create invalid offsets when the higher timeframe compresses history.
Modernization & user control:
- Pine v6 upgrade and re-organization of logic for clarity/performance.
- More predictable tops/bottoms detection.
What it does:
- Detects regular (trend-reversal) and optional hidden (trend-continuation) divergences between price swing tops/bottoms and the selected oscillator(s).
- Computes candidate pivots with a light HTF alignment to reduce micro-noise; validates divergence when oscillator and price move in opposite directions across those pivots.
- Plots colored lines/labels on price to highlight bearish (regular & hidden) and bullish (regular & hidden) patterns.
How to use:
- Choose the oscillator set you trust (start with RSI + MACD).
- Consider confluence (S/R, volume, trend filters). This tool only identifies conditions
Economic Profit (Fixed & Labeled) — Rated + PeersFRAC (Fundamental-Rated-Asset-Calculate)
FRAC is a fundamentals-driven tool designed to measure whether a company is creating or destroying shareholder value. Unlike surface ratios, FRAC uses Economic Profit (ROIC – WACC) as its engine, showing whether a business truly outperforms its cost of capital.
🔹 What FRAC Does
Calculates ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) vs. WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital).
Shows whether a company is creating or destroying shareholder value.
Uses tiered color coding for clarity:
🔵 Superior (Aqua Blue) → Top tier; best of the best.
🟣 Elite (Purple) → Strong value creation.
🟢 Positive (Green) → Solid, creating shareholder value.
🟡 Marginal (Yellow) → Barely covering cost of capital.
🔴 Negative (Red) → Value destruction.
🔹 Composite Ranking System (1–4)
FRAC also assigns each company a Composite Rank so you can compare multiple names side by side. The rank works like this:
Rank 1 → Superior (🔵 Aqua Blue)
Best possible rating; wide gap between ROIC and WACC.
Rank 2 → Elite (🟣 Purple)
Strongly positive; above-average capital efficiency.
Rank 3 → Positive (🟢 Green)
Creating value but only moderately; not a top compounder.
Rank 4 → Marginal/Negative (🟡/🔴)
Weak or destructive; either barely covering WACC or losing money on capital.
✅ How to Use the Ranks
When comparing a set of peers (e.g., NVDA, AMD, INTC):
FRAC will display each company’s color rating + composite rank (1–4).
You can instantly see who is strongest vs. weakest in the group.
Best decisions = overweight Rank 1 & 2 companies, avoid Rank 4 names.
🔹 Key Inputs Explained
Risk-Free Asset → Typically the 10-Year US Treasury yield (US10Y).
Corporate Tax Rate → Effective tax rate for the company’s country (e.g., USCTR).
Expected Market Return → Historical average ~8–10%, adjustable.
Beta Lookback Period → Controls how far back Beta is calculated (longer = more stable, shorter = more reactive).
👉 These must be set correctly for FRAC to calculate WACC accurately.
🔹 Example Comparison
NVDA: ROIC 25% – WACC 7% = +18% → 🔵 Superior → Rank 1
AMD: ROIC 17% – WACC 8% = +9% → 🟣 Elite → Rank 2
INTC: ROIC 11% – WACC 9% = +2% → 🟢 Positive → Rank 3
FSLY: ROIC 5% – WACC 10% = –5% → 🔴 Negative → Rank 4
🔹 Why It Matters
Buffett said: “The best businesses are those that can consistently generate returns on capital above their cost of capital.”
FRAC turns that into a visual + numeric rating system (1–4), making comparisons across peers simple and actionable.
🔹 Credit
FRAC was created by Hunter Hammond (Elite x FineFir), inspired by corporate finance models of Economic Profit and Economic Value Added (EVA).
⚠️ Disclaimer: FRAC is a research framework, not financial advice. Always pair with full due diligence.
(LES/SES) Compliment Net Volume(LES/SES) Compliment Net Volume
(LES/SES) Compliment Net Volume is a volume-based confirmation tool designed to show whether buyers or sellers are truly in control behind the candles. It acts as a compliment to the Long Elite Squeeze (LES) and Short Elite Squeeze (SES) frameworks, giving traders a clearer view of momentum strength.
Note! {Short Elite Squeeze (SES) Will be released in the Future}
-Designed to take shorts opposite of the long trades from LES
🔹 Core Logic
Net Volume Calculation – Positive volume when price closes higher, negative when price closes lower.
Cumulative Smoothing – Uses a rolling SMA of cumulative differences to remove noise.
Color Coding –
Green → Buyer dominance
Red → Seller dominance
Gray → Neutral pressure
🔹 How to Use
Above zero (green) → Buyers dominate → supports long setups (LES).
Below zero (red) → Sellers dominate → supports short setups (SES).
Flat/gray → No clear pressure → signals caution or chop.
This makes it easier to confirm when market participation aligns with a potential entry or exit.
🔹 Credit
The Compliment Net Volume was developed by Hunter Hammond (Elite x FineFir) as part of the LES/SES system.
The concept builds on classic Net Volume and cumulative volume analysis principles shared by the TradingView community, but has been uniquely adapted into the LES/SES framework.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a framework tool, not financial advice. Use with proper risk management.
Mikula's Master 360° Square of 12Mikula’s Master 360° Square of 12
An educational W. D. Gann study indicator for price and time. Anchor a compact Square of 12 table to a start point you choose. Begin from a bar’s High or Low (or set a manual start price). From that anchor you can progress or regress the table to study how price steps through cycles in either direction.
What you’re looking at :
Zodiac rail (far left): the twelve signs.
Degree rail: 24 rows in 15° steps from 15° up to 360°/0°.
Transit rail and Natal rail: track one planet per rail. Each planet is placed at its current row (℞ shown when retrograde). As longitude advances, the planet climbs bottom → top, then wraps to the bottom at the next sign; during retrograde it steps downward.
Hover a planet’s cell to see a tooltip with its exact longitude and sign (e.g., 152.4° ♌︎). The linked price cell in the grid moves with the planet’s row so you can follow a planet’s path through the zodiac as a path through price.
Price grid (right): the 12×24 Square of 12. Each column is a cycle; cells are stepped price levels from your start price using your increment.
Bottom rail: shows the current square number and labels the twelve columns in that square.
How the square is read
The square always begins at the bottom left. Read each column bottom → top. At the top, return to the bottom of the next column and read up again. One square contains twelve cycles. Because the anchor can be a High or a Low, you can progress the table upward from the anchor or regress it downward while keeping the same bottom-to-top reading order.
Iterate Square (shifting)
Iterate Square shifts the entire 12×24 grid to the next set of twelve cycles.
Square 1 shows cycles 1–12; Square 2 shows 13–24; Square 3 shows 25–36, etc.
Visibility rules
Pivot cells are table-bound. If you shift the square beyond those prices, their highlights won’t appear in the table.
A/B levels and Transit/Natal planetary lines are chart overlays and can remain visible on the table as you shift the square.
Quick use
Choose an anchor (date/time + High/Low) or enable a manual start price .
Set the increment. If you anchored with a Low and want the table to step downward from there, use a negative value.
Optional: pick Transit and Natal planets (one per rail), toggle their plots, and hover their cells for longitude/sign.
Optional: turn on A/B levels to display repeating bands from the start price.
Optional: enable swing pivots to tint matching cells after the anchor.
Use Iterate Square to shift to later squares of twelve cycles.
Examples
These are exploratory examples to spark ideas:
Overview layout (zodiac & degree rails, Transit/Natal rails, price grid)
A-levels plotted, pivots tinted on the table, real-time price highlighted
Drawing angles from the anchor using price & time read from the table
Using a TradingView Gann box along the A-levels to study reactions
Attribution & originality
This script is an original implementation (no external code copied). Conceptual credit to Patrick Mikula, whose discussion of the Master 360° Square of 12 inspired this study’s presentation.
Further reading (neutral pointers)
Patrick Mikula, Gann’s Scientific Methods Unveiled, Vol. 2, “W. D. Gann’s Use of the Circle Chart.”
W. D. Gann’s Original Commodity Course (as provided by WDGAN.com).
No affiliation implied.
License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (non-commercial; please attribute @Javonnii and link the original).
Dependency AstroLib by @BarefootJoey
Disclaimer Educational use only; not financial advice.
Advanced VWAP CalendarThe Advanced VWAP Calendar is a designed to plot Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) lines anchored to user-defined and preset time periods, including weekly, monthly, quarterly, and custom anchors. As of August 15, 2025, this indicator provides traders with a robust tool for analyzing price trends relative to volume-weighted averages, with clear labeling and extensive customization options. Below is a summary of its key features and functionality, with technical details and code references updated to focus on user-facing behavior and presentation, while preserving all other aspects of the original summary.
Key Features
Multiple Time Period VWAPs:
Weekly VWAPs: Supports up to five VWAPs for a user-selected month and year, starting at midnight each Monday (e.g., W1 Aug 2025, W2 Aug 2025). Enabled via a single toggle, with anchors automatically set to the first Monday of the chosen month.
Monthly VWAPs: Plots VWAPs for all 12 months of a selected year (e.g., Jan 2025, Feb 2025) or a single user-specified month/year. Labels use month abbreviations (e.g., "Aug 2025").
Quarterly VWAPs: Covers four quarters of a selected year (e.g., Q1 2025, Q2 2025), with options to enable all quarters or individual ones (Q1–Q4).
Legacy VWAPs: Provides monthly and quarterly VWAPs for a user-selected legacy year (e.g., 2024), labeled with a "Legacy" prefix (e.g., "Legacy Jan 2024," "Legacy Q1 2024"), with similar enablement options.
Custom VWAPs: Includes 10 fully customizable VWAPs, each with user-defined anchor times, labels (e.g., "Q1 2025"), colors, line widths (1–5), text colors, bubble styles, text sizes (8–40), and background options.
Clear and Dynamic Labeling:
Labels appear to the right of the chart, showing the VWAP value (e.g., "Q1 2025 123.45").
Weekly labels follow a "W# Month Year" format (e.g., "W1 Aug 2025").
Monthly labels use abbreviated months (e.g., "Aug 2025"), while quarterly labels use "Q# Year" (e.g., "Q3 2025").
Legacy labels include a "Legacy" prefix (e.g., "Legacy Q1 2024").
Labels support customizable text sizes (tiny to huge) and can be displayed with or without a background, with optional bubble styles.
Flexible Customization:
Each VWAP can be enabled or disabled independently, with user inputs for anchor times, labels, and visual properties.
Colors are predefined for weekly (red, orange, blue, green, purple), monthly (varied), quarterly (red, blue, green, yellow), and legacy VWAPs, but custom VWAPs allow any color selection.
Line widths and text sizes are adjustable, ensuring visual clarity and chart readability.
This indicator was a dual effort, code was heavily contributed in effort by AzDxB, major credit and THANKS goes to him www.tradingview.com
Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster [BackQuant]Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster
Plain-English overview
This tool projects a cone of plausible future prices by combining two ideas that traders already use intuitively: seasonality and uncertainty. It watches how your market typically behaves around this calendar date, turns that seasonal tendency into a small daily “drift,” then runs many randomized price paths forward to estimate where price could land tomorrow, next week, or a month from now. The result is a probability cone with a clear expected path, plus optional overlays that show how past years tended to move from this point on the calendar. It is a planning tool, not a crystal ball: the goal is to quantify ranges and odds so you can size, place stops, set targets, and time entries with more realism.
What Monte Carlo is and why quants rely on it
• Definition . Monte Carlo simulation is a way to answer “what might happen next?” when there is randomness in the system. Instead of producing a single forecast, it generates thousands of alternate futures by repeatedly sampling random shocks and adding them to a model of how prices evolve.
• Why it is used . Markets are noisy. A single point forecast hides risk. Monte Carlo gives a distribution of outcomes so you can reason in probabilities: the median path, the 68% band, the 95% band, tail risks, and the chance of hitting a specific level within a horizon.
• Core strengths in quant finance .
– Path-dependent questions : “What is the probability we touch a stop before a target?” “What is the expected drawdown on the way to my objective?”
– Pricing and risk : Useful for path-dependent options, Value-at-Risk (VaR), expected shortfall (CVaR), stress paths, and scenario analysis when closed-form formulas are unrealistic.
– Planning under uncertainty : Portfolio construction and rebalancing rules can be tested against a cloud of plausible futures rather than a single guess.
• Why it fits trading workflows . It turns gut feel like “seasonality is supportive here” into quantitative ranges: “median path suggests +X% with a 68% band of ±Y%; stop at Z has only ~16% odds of being tagged in N days.”
How this indicator builds its probability cone
1) Seasonal pattern discovery
The script builds two day-of-year maps as new data arrives:
• A return map where each calendar day stores an exponentially smoothed average of that day’s log return (yesterday→today). The smoothing (90% old, 10% new) behaves like an EWMA, letting older seasons matter while adapting to new information.
• A volatility map that tracks the typical absolute return for the same calendar day.
It calculates the day-of-year carefully (with leap-year adjustment) and indexes into a 365-slot seasonal array so “March 18” is compared with past March 18ths. This becomes the seasonal bias that gently nudges simulations up or down on each forecast day.
2) Choice of randomness engine
You can pick how the future shocks are generated:
• Daily mode uses a Gaussian draw with the seasonal bias as the mean and a volatility that comes from realized returns, scaled down to avoid over-fitting. It relies on the Box–Muller transform internally to turn two uniform random numbers into one normal shock.
• Weekly mode uses bootstrap sampling from the seasonal return history (resampling actual historical daily drifts and then blending in a fraction of the seasonal bias). Bootstrapping is robust when the empirical distribution has asymmetry or fatter tails than a normal distribution.
Both modes seed their random draws deterministically per path and day, which makes plots reproducible bar-to-bar and avoids flickering bands.
3) Volatility scaling to current conditions
Markets do not always live in average volatility. The engine computes a simple volatility factor from ATR(20)/price and scales the simulated shocks up or down within sensible bounds (clamped between 0.5× and 2.0×). When the current regime is quiet, the cone narrows; when ranges expand, the cone widens. This prevents the classic mistake of projecting calm markets into a storm or vice versa.
4) Many futures, summarized by percentiles
The model generates a matrix of price paths (capped at 100 runs for performance inside TradingView), each path stepping forward for your selected horizon. For each forecast day it sorts the simulated prices and pulls key percentiles:
• 5th and 95th → approximate 95% band (outer cone).
• 16th and 84th → approximate 68% band (inner cone).
• 50th → the median or “expected path.”
These are drawn as polylines so you can immediately see central tendency and dispersion.
5) A historical overlay (optional)
Turn on the overlay to sketch a dotted path of what a purely seasonal projection would look like for the next ~30 days using only the return map, no randomness. This is not a forecast; it is a visual reminder of the seasonal drift you are biasing toward.
Inputs you control and how to think about them
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Price Series for Calculation . The source series, typically close.
• Enable Probability Forecasts . Master switch for simulation and drawing.
• Simulation Iterations . Requested number of paths to run. Internally capped at 100 to protect performance, which is generally enough to estimate the percentiles for a trading chart. If you need ultra-smooth bands, shorten the horizon.
• Forecast Days Ahead . The length of the cone. Longer horizons dilute seasonal signal and widen uncertainty.
• Probability Bands . Draw all bands, just 95%, just 68%, or a custom level (display logic remains 68/95 internally; the custom number is for labeling and color choice).
• Pattern Resolution . Daily leans on day-of-year effects like “turn-of-month” or holiday patterns. Weekly biases toward day-of-week tendencies and bootstraps from history.
• Volatility Scaling . On by default so the cone respects today’s range context.
Plotting & UI
• Probability Cone . Plots the outer and inner percentile envelopes.
• Expected Path . Plots the median line through the cone.
• Historical Overlay . Dotted seasonal-only projection for context.
• Band Transparency/Colors . Customize primary (outer) and secondary (inner) band colors and the mean path color. Use higher transparency for cleaner charts.
What appears on your chart
• A cone starting at the most recent bar, fanning outward. The outer lines are the ~95% band; the inner lines are the ~68% band.
• A median path (default blue) running through the center of the cone.
• An info panel on the final historical bar that summarizes simulation count, forecast days, number of seasonal patterns learned, the current day-of-year, expected percentage return to the median, and the approximate 95% half-range in percent.
• Optional historical seasonal path drawn as dotted segments for the next 30 bars.
How to use it in trading
1) Position sizing and stop logic
The cone translates “volatility plus seasonality” into distances.
• Put stops outside the inner band if you want only ~16% odds of a stop-out due to noise before your thesis can play.
• Size positions so that a test of the inner band is survivable and a test of the outer band is rare but acceptable.
• If your target sits inside the 68% band at your horizon, the payoff is likely modest; outside the 68% but inside the 95% can justify “one-good-push” trades; beyond the 95% band is a low-probability flyer—consider scaling plans or optionality.
2) Entry timing with seasonal bias
When the median path slopes up from this calendar date and the cone is relatively narrow, a pullback toward the lower inner band can be a high-quality entry with a tight invalidation. If the median slopes down, fade rallies toward the upper band or step aside if it clashes with your system.
3) Target selection
Project your time horizon to N bars ahead, then pick targets around the median or the opposite inner band depending on your style. You can also anchor dynamic take-profits to the moving median as new bars arrive.
4) Scenario planning & “what-ifs”
Before events, glance at the cone: if the 95% band already spans a huge range, trade smaller, expect whips, and avoid placing stops at obvious band edges. If the cone is unusually tight, consider breakout tactics and be ready to add if volatility expands beyond the inner band with follow-through.
5) Options and vol tactics
• When the cone is tight : Prefer long gamma structures (debit spreads) only if you expect a regime shift; otherwise premium selling may dominate.
• When the cone is wide : Debit structures benefit from range; credit spreads need wider wings or smaller size. Align with your separate IV metrics.
Reading the probability cone like a pro
• Cone slope = seasonal drift. Upward slope means the calendar has historically favored positive drift from this date, downward slope the opposite.
• Cone width = regime volatility. A widening fan tells you that uncertainty grows fast; a narrow cone says the market typically stays contained.
• Mean vs. price gap . If spot trades well above the median path and the upper band, mean-reversion risk is high. If spot presses the lower inner band in an up-sloping cone, you are in the “buy fear” zone.
• Touches and pierces . Touching the inner band is common noise; piercing it with momentum signals potential regime change; the outer band should be rare and often brings snap-backs unless there is a structural catalyst.
Methodological notes (what the code actually does)
• Log returns are used for additivity and better statistical behavior: sim_ret is applied via exp(sim_ret) to evolve price.
• Seasonal arrays are updated online with EWMA (90/10) so the model keeps learning as each bar arrives.
• Leap years are handled; indexing still normalizes into a 365-slot map so the seasonal pattern remains stable.
• Gaussian engine (Daily mode) centers shocks on the seasonal bias with a conservative standard deviation.
• Bootstrap engine (Weekly mode) resamples from observed seasonal returns and adds a fraction of the bias, which captures skew and fat tails better.
• Volatility adjustment multiplies each daily shock by a factor derived from ATR(20)/price, clamped between 0.5 and 2.0 to avoid extreme cones.
• Performance guardrails : simulations are capped at 100 paths; the probability cone uses polylines (no heavy fills) and only draws on the last confirmed bar to keep charts responsive.
• Prerequisite data : at least ~30 seasonal entries are required before the model will draw a cone; otherwise it waits for more history.
Strengths and limitations
• Strengths :
– Probabilistic thinking replaces single-point guessing.
– Seasonality adds a small but meaningful directional bias that many markets exhibit.
– Volatility scaling adapts to the current regime so the cone stays realistic.
• Limitations :
– Seasonality can break around structural changes, policy shifts, or one-off events.
– The number of paths is performance-limited; percentile estimates are good for trading, not for academic precision.
– The model assumes tomorrow’s randomness resembles recent randomness; if regime shifts violently, the cone will lag until the EWMA adapts.
– Holidays and missing sessions can thin the seasonal sample for some assets; be cautious with very short histories.
Tuning guide
• Horizon : 10–20 bars for tactical trades; 30+ for swing planning when you care more about broad ranges than precise targets.
• Iterations : The default 100 is enough for stable 5/16/50/84/95 percentiles. If you crave smoother lines, shorten the horizon or run on higher timeframes.
• Daily vs. Weekly : Daily for equities and crypto where month-end and turn-of-month effects matter; Weekly for futures and FX where day-of-week behavior is strong.
• Volatility scaling : Keep it on. Turn off only when you intentionally want a “pure seasonality” cone unaffected by current turbulence.
Workflow examples
• Swing continuation : Cone slopes up, price pulls into the lower inner band, your system fires. Enter near the band, stop just outside the outer line for the next 3–5 bars, target near the median or the opposite inner band.
• Fade extremes : Cone is flat or down, price gaps to the upper outer band on news, then stalls. Favor mean-reversion toward the median, size small if volatility scaling is elevated.
• Event play : Before CPI or earnings on a proxy index, check cone width. If the inner band is already wide, cut size or prefer options structures that benefit from range.
Good habits
• Pair the cone with your entry engine (breakout, pullback, order flow). Let Monte Carlo do range math; let your system do signal quality.
• Do not anchor blindly to the median; recalc after each bar. When the cone’s slope flips or width jumps, the plan should adapt.
• Validate seasonality for your symbol and timeframe; not every market has strong calendar effects.
Summary
The Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster wraps institutional risk planning into a single overlay: a data-driven seasonal drift, realistic volatility scaling, and a probabilistic cone that answers “where could we be, with what odds?” within your trading horizon. Use it to place stops where randomness is less likely to take you out, to set targets aligned with realistic travel, and to size positions with confidence born from distributions rather than hunches. It will not predict the future, but it will keep your decisions anchored to probabilities—the language markets actually speak.
Engulfing Pattern[SpeculationLab]Overview
This script detects two types of engulfing / outer bar patterns and marks them directly on the chart:
Body Engulfing – The current candle’s body range (open–close) completely covers the entire range (high–low) of the previous candle.
Range Engulfing – The current candle’s full range (high–low, including wicks) completely covers the entire range (high–low) of the previous candle.
Direction logic:
Bull – The previous candle is bearish and the selected engulfing rule is met.
Bear – The previous candle is bullish and the selected engulfing rule is met.
Optional: Require the current candle to have the opposite color of the previous one.
This is an open-source pattern recognition tool for learning, backtesting, and chart review. It is not financial advice.
Key Features
Two detection modes:
body – Body engulfs previous entire range
range – Wicks engulf previous entire range
Direction detection based on the previous candle’s color, with optional opposite-color confirmation
Chart markers: “BULL” /“BEAR” above bars
Alert-ready: built-in conditions for bullish and bearish engulfing patterns
Parameters
Engulfing Type: body / range
body: Current body must fully cover the previous candle’s high–low range
range: Current full range (high–low) must fully cover the previous candle’s high–low range
Require Opposite Previous Candle (default: off):
When enabled, the engulfing pattern must also have the opposite color from the previous candle to trigger
Usage Tips
Engulfing patterns are price action structures; combine with trend, key levels, and volume for context
Signals confirm on bar close (barstate.isconfirmed) to reduce repainting
Can be used with personal risk management rules (stop-loss, take-profit, filters)
Disclaimer
For educational and research purposes only – not financial advice
Past performance of patterns does not guarantee future results
Trading involves risk; always manage it responsibly
This script is open-source – feel free to learn from or modify it, but credit the original source and author (SpeculationLab)
脚本简介
本脚本用于识别两类包裹/外包形态，并在图表上以标记提示：
Body（实体包裹）：当前K线的实体区间（开—收）完全覆盖上一根K线的整个区间（上一根的高—低）。
Range（影线外包）：当前K线的影线区间（高—低）完全覆盖上一根K线的整个区间（上一根的高—低）。
方向判定：
Bull（多）：上一根为阴线且满足所选包裹规则；
Bear（空）：上一根为阳线且满足所选包裹规则；
可选项：要求“当前K线颜色与上一根相反”后再确认（见参数）。
本脚本为开源形态识别工具，适合技术分析学习、回测与复盘，不构成任何投资建议。
主要功能
两种识别模式：body（实体包裹上一根整段） / range（影线包裹上一根整段）。
方向识别：按上一根K线颜色判断多空；可选“当前颜色与上一根相反”的二次确认。
图表提示：plotshape 在K线上方标注 “BULL / BEAR”。
提醒支持：内置 Bullish Engulf / Bearish Engulf 提醒条件。
参数说明
Engulfing Type：body / range
body：当前实体须完全覆盖上一根的高—低整段；
range：当前高—低须完全覆盖上一根的高—低整段。
Require Opposite Previous Candle（默认关闭）：
开启后，除满足包裹规则外，还需当前K线颜色与上一根相反才触发标记。
使用建议
包裹/外包是价格行为结构，建议结合趋势、关键价位、成交量等因素综合判断。
信号在收盘时确认（barstate.isconfirmed），以减少重绘干扰。
可与个人风格的风险控制规则（止损、止盈、过滤条件）配合使用。
合规与免责声明
本脚本仅用于技术研究与学习，不构成任何形式的投资建议或收益承诺。
历史形态并不代表未来结果，交易有风险，请自行评估并承担责任。
本脚本开源，欢迎学习与二次开发；转载或改用请注明来源与作者（SpeculationLab / 投机实验室）。
US Macro Cycle (Z-Score Model)US Macro Cycle (Z-Score Model)
This indicator tracks the US economic cycle in real time using a weighted composite of seven macro and market-based indicators, each converted into a rolling Z-score for comparability. The model identifies the current phase of the cycle — Expansion, Peak, Contraction, or Recovery — and suggests sector tilts based on historical performance in each phase.
Core Components:
Yield Curve (10y–2y): Positive & steepening = growth; inverted = slowdown risk.
Credit Spreads (HYG/LQD): Tightening = risk-on; widening = risk-off.
Sector Leadership (Cyclicals vs. Defensives): Measures market leadership regime.
Copper/Gold Ratio: Higher copper = growth signal; higher gold = defensive.
SPY vs. 200-day MA: Equity trend strength.
SPY/IEF Ratio: Stocks vs. bonds relative strength.
VIX (Inverted): Low/falling volatility = supportive; high/rising = risk-off.
Methodology:
Each series is transformed into a rolling Z-score over the selected lookback period (optionally using median/MAD for robustness and winsorization to clip outliers).
Z-scores are combined using user-defined weights and normalized.
The smoothed composite is compared against phase thresholds to classify the macro environment.
Features:
Customizable Weights: Emphasize the indicators most relevant to your strategy.
Adjustable Thresholds: Fine-tune cycle phase definitions.
Background Coloring: Visual cue for the current phase.
Summary Table: Displays composite Z, confidence %, and individual Z-scores.
Alerts: Trigger when the phase changes, with details on the composite score and recommended tilt.
Use Cases:
Align sector rotation or relative strength strategies with the macro backdrop.
Identify favorable or defensive phases for tactical allocation.
Monitor macro turning points to manage portfolio risk.
It's doesn't fill nan gaps so there is quite a bit of zeroes, non-repainting.
Swing Point Volume Z-ScoreSWING POINT VOLUME Z-SCORE INDICATOR
A volume analysis tool that identifies statistical volume spikes at swing points with optional higher timeframe confirmation.
This indicator uses Leviathan's method of swing detection. All credit to him for his amazing work (and any mistakes mine). I was also inspired by Trading Riot, who's Capitulation indicator gave me the idea to create this one.
WHAT IT DOES
This indicator combines three analytical approaches:
- Volume Z-score calculation to measure volume significance statistically
- Automatic swing point detection (higher highs, lower lows, etc.)
- Optional higher timeframe volume confirmation
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations current volume is from the average, helping identify when volume activity is genuinely elevated rather than relying on visual assessment.
VISUAL SYSTEM
The indicator uses a color-coded approach for quick assessment:
GREEN - Normal Activity (Z-Score 1.0-2.0)
Above-average volume levels
ORANGE - Elevated Activity (Z-Score 2.0-3.0)
High volume activity that may indicate increased interest
RED - Potential Institutional Activity (Z-Score 3.0+)
Very high volume levels that could suggest significant market participation
HIGHER TIMEFRAME CONFIRMATION
When enabled, the indicator checks volume on a higher timeframe:
- Checkmark symbol indicates HTF volume also shows elevation
- X symbol indicates HTF volume doesn't confirm
- Auto-selects appropriate higher timeframe or allows manual selection
KEY FEATURES
Statistical Approach: Uses Z-score methodology rather than arbitrary volume thresholds
Adaptive Thresholds: Can adjust based on market volatility conditions
Swing Focus: Concentrates analysis on structurally important price levels
Volume Trends: Shows whether volume is accelerating or decelerating
Success Tracking: Monitors how often HTF confirmation proves effective
DISPLAY OPTIONS
Basic Mode: Essential features with clean interface
Advanced Mode: Additional customization and analytics
Label Sizing: Four size options to fit different screen setups
Table Position: Moveable info table with transparency control
Custom Colors: Adjustable for different chart themes
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
May help identify:
- Volume spikes at support/resistance levels
- Potential accumulation or distribution zones
- Breakout confirmation with volume backing
- Areas where larger market participants might be active
Works on all liquid markets and timeframes, though generally more effective on 15-minute charts and higher.
USAGE NOTES
This is an analytical tool that highlights statistically significant volume events. It should be used as part of a broader analysis approach rather than as a standalone trading system.
The indicator works best when combined with:
- Price action analysis
- Support and resistance identification
- Trend analysis
- Proper risk management
Default settings are designed to work well across most instruments, but users can adjust parameters based on their specific needs and trading style.
TECHNICAL DETAILS
Built with Pine Script v5
Compatible with all TradingView subscription levels
Open source code available for review and learning
Works on stocks, forex, crypto, futures, and other liquid instruments
The statistical approach helps remove some subjectivity from volume analysis, though like all technical indicators, it should be used thoughtfully as part of a complete trading plan.
SulLaLuna — HTF M2 x Ultimate BB (Fusion) 🌕 **SulLaLuna — HTF M2 x Ultimate BB (Fusion)** 🚀💵
**By SulLaLuna Trading**
(Portions of the Bollinger Band logic adapted with permission/credit from the *Ultimate Buy & Sell Indicator* by its original author — thank you for the brilliance!)
---
🧭 **What This Is**
This is not just another price-following tool.
This is **a macro liquidity detector** — a **Daily Higher Timeframe Hull Moving Average of the Global M2 Money Supply**, smoothed via lower timeframe candles (default 5m, 48 Hull length), overlaid with **Ultimate-style double Bollinger Bands** to reveal *over-extension & mean reversion zones*.
It doesn’t chase candles.
It watches the tides beneath the market — the **money supply currents** that have a **direct correlation** to asset price behavior.
When liquidity expands → risk-on assets tend to rise.
When liquidity contracts → risk-off waves hit.
We ride those waves.
---
🔍 **What It Does**
* **Tracks Global M2** across major economies, FX-adjusted, and scales it to your chart’s price.
* **HTF Hull MA** (Daily, smoothed via 5m base) → gives you the macro liquidity trend.
* **Ultimate BB logic** applied to the HTF M2 Hull → inner/outer bands for volatility envelopes.
* **Pivot Labels** → ideal entry/exit zones on macro turns.
* **Over-Extension Alerts** → when HTF M2 Hull pushes outside the outer bands.
* **Re-Entry Alerts** → mean reversion triggers when liquidity moves back inside the range.
* **Background Paint** from chart TF M2 slope → for confluence on your entry timeframe.
---
📜 **Suggested How-To**
1. **Choose your execution chart** — e.g., 1–15m for scalps, 1H–4H for swings.
2. **Use the background paint** as your *local tide check* (chart TF M2 slope).
3. **Trade in the direction of the HTF M2 Hull** — green line = liquidity rising, red line = liquidity falling.
4. **Watch pivot labels** — these are potential “macro inflection” points.
5. **Confluence stack** — pair with ZLSMA, WaveTrend divergences, VWAP volume, or your favorite price-action setups.
6. **Size down** when HTF M2 Hull is flat/gray (chop zone).
7. **Scale in/out** on over-extension + re-entry alerts for higher probability swings.
---
⚠️ **Important Note**
This indicator **does not predict price** — it tracks macro liquidity flows that *influence* price.
Think of it as your market’s **tide chart**: when the water’s coming in, you can swim out; when it’s going out, you’d better be ready for the undertow.
---
📢 **Alerts Available**
* HTF Pivot HIGH / LOW
* Over-Extension (HTF Hull outside outer BB)
* Re-Entry (return from overbought/oversold)
---
🤝 **Join the SulLaLuna Tribe**
If this indicator helps you capture better entries, follow & share so more traders can learn to trade *math, not emotion*.
We rise together — **and we’ll meet you on the Moon** 🌕🚀💵.
Whaley Thrust — ADT / UDT / SPT (2010) + EDT (EMA) + Info BoxDescription
Implements Wayne Whaley’s 2010 Dow Award breadth-thrust framework on daily data, with a practical extension:
• ADT (Advances Thrust) — 5-day ratio of advances to (adv+dec). Triggers: > 73.66% (thrust), < 19.05% (capitulation).
• UDT (Up-Volume Thrust) — 5-day ratio of up-volume to (up+down). Triggers: > 77.88%, < 16.41%. Defaults to USI:UVOL / USI:DVOL (edit if your feed differs).
• SPT (Price Thrust) — 5-day % change of a benchmark (default SPY, toggle to use chart symbol). Triggers: > +10.05%, < −13.85%.
• EDT (EMA extension) — Declines-share thrust derived from WBT logic (not in Whaley’s paper): EMA/SMA of Declines / (Adv+Decl). Triggers: > 0.8095 (declines thrust), < 0.2634 (declines abating).
• All-Clear — Prints when ADT+ and UDT+ occur within N days (default 10); marks the second event and shades brighter green.
Visuals & Controls
• Shape markers for each event; toggle text labels on/off.
• Optional background shading (green for thrusts, red for capitulations; brighter green for All-Clear).
• Compact info box showing live ADT / UDT / SPT (white by default; turns green/red at thresholds).
• Min-spacing filter to prevent duplicate prints.
Tips
• Use on Daily charts (paper uses 5 trading days). Weekly views can miss mid-week crosses.
• If UDT shows 100%, verify your Down Volume symbol; the script requires both UVOL and DVOL to be > 0.
• Best use: treat capitulations (−) as setup context; act on thrusts (+)—especially when ADT+ & UDT+ cluster (All-Clear).
Credit
Core method from Wayne Whaley (2010), Planes, Trains and Automobiles (Dow Award). EDT is an added, complementary interpretation using WBT-style smoothing.
Kalman Supertrend (High vs Low) Bands Inspired by BackQuant, this script modifies the original Kalman Hull Supertrend by replacing the close price with High and Low sources. This creates clearer trend definition and better trend tracking.
This is one of the best trend indicators that can be used for trend trading or to capture reversals with high clarity.
Key Features:
Kalman High/Low Bands — Smooths market noise while separating bullish and bearish zones.
BB & SS Alerts — Triggered only when the entire candle closes outside both bands, helping filter out false breakouts.
Supertrend (optional) — Can be toggled on/off to monitor potential short-term or early trend shifts.
Customizable Display — Show/hide bands, fills, and live candle coloring for chart clarity.
Reversal Insight:
For 4H and Daily charts, reversal signals appear to be quite accurate when the price retests the trend bands before continuing the move.
How to Use:
BB appears when a candle fully closes above both High/Low Kalman bands — possible bullish breakout.
SS appears when a candle fully closes below both bands — possible bearish breakdown.
Supertrend toggle can confirm shorter-term moves or early reversals.
Credit to the original script BackQuant
Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer [BackQuant]Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer
Overview
The Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer is a comprehensive analytical tool that calculates Black-Scholes option Greeks up to the third order for Bitcoin and Ethereum options. It integrates implied volatility data from VOLMEX indices and provides multiple visualization layers for options risk analysis.
Quick Introduction to Options Trading
Options are financial derivatives that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) within a specific time period (expiration date). Understanding options requires grasping two fundamental concepts:
Call Options : Give the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price. Calls increase in value when the underlying price rises above the strike price.
Put Options : Give the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price. Puts increase in value when the underlying price falls below the strike price.
The Language of Options: Greeks
Options traders use "Greeks" - mathematical measures that describe how an option's price changes in response to various factors:
Delta : How much the option price moves for each $1 change in the underlying
Gamma : How fast delta changes as the underlying moves
Theta : Daily time decay - how much value erodes each day
Vega : Sensitivity to implied volatility changes
Rho : Sensitivity to interest rate changes
These Greeks are essential for understanding risk. Just as a pilot needs instruments to fly safely, options traders need Greeks to navigate market conditions and manage positions effectively.
Why Volatility Matters
Implied volatility (IV) represents the market's expectation of future price movement. High IV means:
Options are more expensive (higher premiums)
Market expects larger price swings
Better for option sellers
Low IV means:
Options are cheaper
Market expects smaller moves
Better for option buyers
This indicator helps you visualize and quantify these critical concepts in real-time.
Back to the Indicator
Key Features & Components
1. Complete Greeks Calculations
The indicator computes all standard Greeks using the Black-Scholes-Merton model adapted for cryptocurrency markets:
First Order Greeks:
Delta (Δ) : Measures the rate of change of option price with respect to underlying price movement. Ranges from 0 to 1 for calls and -1 to 0 for puts.
Vega (ν) : Sensitivity to implied volatility changes, expressed as price change per 1% change in IV.
Theta (Θ) : Time decay measured in dollars per day, showing how much value erodes with each passing day.
Rho (ρ) : Interest rate sensitivity, measuring price change per 1% change in risk-free rate.
Second Order Greeks:
Gamma (Γ) : Rate of change of delta with respect to underlying price, indicating how quickly delta will change.
Vanna : Cross-derivative measuring delta's sensitivity to volatility changes and vega's sensitivity to price changes.
Charm : Delta decay over time, showing how delta changes as expiration approaches.
Vomma (Volga) : Vega's sensitivity to volatility changes, important for volatility trading strategies.
Third Order Greeks:
Speed : Rate of change of gamma with respect to underlying price (∂Γ/∂S).
Zomma : Gamma's sensitivity to volatility changes (∂Γ/∂σ).
Color : Gamma decay over time (∂Γ/∂T).
Ultima : Third-order volatility sensitivity (∂²ν/∂σ²).
2. Implied Volatility Analysis
The indicator includes a sophisticated IV ranking system that analyzes current implied volatility relative to its recent history:
IV Rank : Percentile ranking of current IV within its 30-day range (0-100%)
IV Percentile : Percentage of days in the lookback period where IV was lower than current
IV Regime Classification : Very Low, Low, High, or Very High
Color-Coded Headers : Visual indication of volatility regime in the Greeks table
Trading regime suggestions based on IV rank:
IV Rank > 75%: "Favor selling options" (high premium environment)
IV Rank 50-75%: "Neutral / Sell spreads"
IV Rank 25-50%: "Neutral / Buy spreads"
IV Rank < 25%: "Favor buying options" (low premium environment)
3. Gamma Zones Visualization
Gamma zones display horizontal price levels where gamma exposure is highest:
Purple horizontal lines indicate gamma concentration areas
Opacity scaling : Darker shading represents higher gamma values
Percentage labels : Shows gamma intensity relative to ATM gamma
Customizable zones : 3-10 price levels can be analyzed
These zones are critical for understanding:
Pin risk around expiration
Potential for explosive price movements
Optimal strike selection for gamma trading
Market maker hedging flows
4. Probability Cones (Expected Move)
The probability cones project expected price ranges based on current implied volatility:
1 Standard Deviation (68% probability) : Shown with dashed green/red lines
2 Standard Deviations (95% probability) : Shown with dotted green/red lines
Time-scaled projection : Cones widen as expiration approaches
Lognormal distribution : Accounts for positive skew in asset prices
Applications:
Strike selection for credit spreads
Identifying high-probability profit zones
Setting realistic price targets
Risk management for undefined risk strategies
5. Breakeven Analysis
The indicator plots key price levels for options positions:
White line : Strike price
Green line : Call breakeven (Strike + Premium)
Red line : Put breakeven (Strike - Premium)
These levels update dynamically as option premiums change with market conditions.
6. Payoff Structure Visualization
Optional P&L labels display profit/loss at expiration for various price levels:
Shows P&L at -2 sigma, -1 sigma, ATM, +1 sigma, and +2 sigma price levels
Separate calculations for calls and puts
Helps visualize option payoff diagrams directly on the chart
Updates based on current option premiums
Configuration Options
Calculation Parameters
Asset Selection : BTC or ETH (limited by VOLMEX IV data availability)
Expiry Options : 1D, 7D, 14D, 30D, 60D, 90D, 180D
Strike Mode : ATM (uses current spot) or Custom (manual strike input)
Risk-Free Rate : Adjustable annual rate for discounting calculations
Display Settings
Greeks Display : Toggle first, second, and third-order Greeks independently
Visual Elements : Enable/disable probability cones, gamma zones, P&L labels
Table Customization : Position (6 options) and text size (4 sizes)
Price Levels : Show/hide strike and breakeven lines
Technical Implementation
Data Sources
Spot Prices : INDEX:BTCUSD and INDEX:ETHUSD for underlying prices
Implied Volatility : VOLMEX:BVIV (Bitcoin) and VOLMEX:EVIV (Ethereum) indices
Real-Time Updates : All calculations update with each price tick
Mathematical Framework
The indicator implements the full Black-Scholes-Merton model:
Standard normal distribution approximations using Abramowitz and Stegun method
Proper annualization factors (365-day year)
Continuous compounding for interest rate calculations
Lognormal price distribution assumptions
Alert Conditions
Four categories of automated alerts:
Price-Based : Underlying crossing strike price
Gamma-Based : 50% surge detection for explosive moves
Moneyness : Deep ITM alerts when |delta| > 0.9
Time/Volatility : Near expiration and vega spike warnings
Practical Applications
For Options Traders
Monitor all Greeks in real-time for active positions
Identify optimal entry/exit points using IV rank
Visualize risk through probability cones and gamma zones
Track time decay and plan rolls
For Volatility Traders
Compare IV across different expiries
Identify mean reversion opportunities
Monitor vega exposure across strikes
Track higher-order volatility sensitivities
Conclusion
The Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer transforms complex mathematical models into actionable visual insights. By combining institutional-grade Greeks calculations with intuitive overlays like probability cones and gamma zones, it bridges the gap between theoretical options knowledge and practical trading application.
Whether you're:
A directional trader using options for leverage
A volatility trader capturing IV mean reversion
A hedger managing portfolio risk
Or simply learning about options mechanics
This tool provides the quantitative foundation needed for informed decision-making in cryptocurrency options markets.
Remember that options trading involves substantial risk and complexity. The Greeks and visualizations provided by this indicator are tools for analysis - they should be combined with proper risk management, position sizing, and a thorough understanding of options strategies.
As crypto options markets continue to mature and grow, having professional-grade analytics becomes increasingly important. This indicator ensures you're equipped with the same analytical capabilities used by institutional traders, adapted specifically for the unique characteristics of 24/7 cryptocurrency markets.
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2007). Stock return predictability: Is it there? Review of Financial Studies, 20(3), 651-707.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
Berger, P. G., & Ofek, E. (1995). Diversification's effect on firm value. Journal of Financial Economics, 37(1), 39-65.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. Futures, 20(1), 40.
Edwards, R. D., Magee, J., & Bassetti, W. H. C. (2018). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 11th ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Giot, P. (2005). Relationships between implied volatility indexes and stock index returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 31(3), 92-100.
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (2008). Security Analysis. 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Grinold, R. C., & Kahn, R. N. (1999). Active Portfolio Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503-3544.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Miller, G. A. (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review, 63(2), 81-97.
Penman, S. H. (2012). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Sharpe ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49-58.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on market volatility: Hedging tools long overdue. Journal of Derivatives, 1(1), 71-84.
Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Greensboro: Trend Research.
Adjustable Percentage Range Moving Average - Add'l LinesThe Adjustable Percentage Range Moving Average (APRMA), originally developed by @ReallyWendy, is a versatile PineScript indicator designed for traders and market analysts to analyze market volatility and identify trends dynamically. Building on the original concept, this updated version plots a central moving average (MA) with four customizable percentage-based range bands around it. Users can select the MA type (SMA, EMA, HMA, RMA, SWMA, TMA, WMA, VWMA), timeframe, and length, tailoring the indicator to their trading style. Each range band (upper and lower) is calculated as a percentage offset from the MA, with adjustable colors and transparency settings for enhanced visual clarity. Extension lines project the latest values forward, with customizable styles (solid, dashed, dotted). The indicator includes toggleable display options for the MA and each range pair, making it an effective tool for identifying price ranges, support/resistance levels, and trend dynamics.
Credit to @ReallyWendy for the foundational concept.
