US Macro Cycle (Z-Score Model)US Macro Cycle (Z-Score Model)
This indicator tracks the US economic cycle in real time using a weighted composite of seven macro and market-based indicators, each converted into a rolling Z-score for comparability. The model identifies the current phase of the cycle — Expansion, Peak, Contraction, or Recovery — and suggests sector tilts based on historical performance in each phase.
Core Components:
Yield Curve (10y–2y): Positive & steepening = growth; inverted = slowdown risk.
Credit Spreads (HYG/LQD): Tightening = risk-on; widening = risk-off.
Sector Leadership (Cyclicals vs. Defensives): Measures market leadership regime.
Copper/Gold Ratio: Higher copper = growth signal; higher gold = defensive.
SPY vs. 200-day MA: Equity trend strength.
SPY/IEF Ratio: Stocks vs. bonds relative strength.
VIX (Inverted): Low/falling volatility = supportive; high/rising = risk-off.
Methodology:
Each series is transformed into a rolling Z-score over the selected lookback period (optionally using median/MAD for robustness and winsorization to clip outliers).
Z-scores are combined using user-defined weights and normalized.
The smoothed composite is compared against phase thresholds to classify the macro environment.
Features:
Customizable Weights: Emphasize the indicators most relevant to your strategy.
Adjustable Thresholds: Fine-tune cycle phase definitions.
Background Coloring: Visual cue for the current phase.
Summary Table: Displays composite Z, confidence %, and individual Z-scores.
Alerts: Trigger when the phase changes, with details on the composite score and recommended tilt.
Use Cases:
Align sector rotation or relative strength strategies with the macro backdrop.
Identify favorable or defensive phases for tactical allocation.
Monitor macro turning points to manage portfolio risk.
It's doesn't fill nan gaps so there is quite a bit of zeroes, non-repainting.
Wyszukaj w skryptach "N+credit最新动态"
Swing Point Volume Z-ScoreSWING POINT VOLUME Z-SCORE INDICATOR
A volume analysis tool that identifies statistical volume spikes at swing points with optional higher timeframe confirmation.
This indicator uses Leviathan's method of swing detection. All credit to him for his amazing work (and any mistakes mine). I was also inspired by Trading Riot, who's Capitulation indicator gave me the idea to create this one.
WHAT IT DOES
This indicator combines three analytical approaches:
- Volume Z-score calculation to measure volume significance statistically
- Automatic swing point detection (higher highs, lower lows, etc.)
- Optional higher timeframe volume confirmation
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations current volume is from the average, helping identify when volume activity is genuinely elevated rather than relying on visual assessment.
VISUAL SYSTEM
The indicator uses a color-coded approach for quick assessment:
GREEN - Normal Activity (Z-Score 1.0-2.0)
Above-average volume levels
ORANGE - Elevated Activity (Z-Score 2.0-3.0)
High volume activity that may indicate increased interest
RED - Potential Institutional Activity (Z-Score 3.0+)
Very high volume levels that could suggest significant market participation
HIGHER TIMEFRAME CONFIRMATION
When enabled, the indicator checks volume on a higher timeframe:
- Checkmark symbol indicates HTF volume also shows elevation
- X symbol indicates HTF volume doesn't confirm
- Auto-selects appropriate higher timeframe or allows manual selection
KEY FEATURES
Statistical Approach: Uses Z-score methodology rather than arbitrary volume thresholds
Adaptive Thresholds: Can adjust based on market volatility conditions
Swing Focus: Concentrates analysis on structurally important price levels
Volume Trends: Shows whether volume is accelerating or decelerating
Success Tracking: Monitors how often HTF confirmation proves effective
DISPLAY OPTIONS
Basic Mode: Essential features with clean interface
Advanced Mode: Additional customization and analytics
Label Sizing: Four size options to fit different screen setups
Table Position: Moveable info table with transparency control
Custom Colors: Adjustable for different chart themes
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
May help identify:
- Volume spikes at support/resistance levels
- Potential accumulation or distribution zones
- Breakout confirmation with volume backing
- Areas where larger market participants might be active
Works on all liquid markets and timeframes, though generally more effective on 15-minute charts and higher.
USAGE NOTES
This is an analytical tool that highlights statistically significant volume events. It should be used as part of a broader analysis approach rather than as a standalone trading system.
The indicator works best when combined with:
- Price action analysis
- Support and resistance identification
- Trend analysis
- Proper risk management
Default settings are designed to work well across most instruments, but users can adjust parameters based on their specific needs and trading style.
TECHNICAL DETAILS
Built with Pine Script v5
Compatible with all TradingView subscription levels
Open source code available for review and learning
Works on stocks, forex, crypto, futures, and other liquid instruments
The statistical approach helps remove some subjectivity from volume analysis, though like all technical indicators, it should be used thoughtfully as part of a complete trading plan.
SulLaLuna — HTF M2 x Ultimate BB (Fusion) 🌕 **SulLaLuna — HTF M2 x Ultimate BB (Fusion)** 🚀💵
**By SulLaLuna Trading**
(Portions of the Bollinger Band logic adapted with permission/credit from the *Ultimate Buy & Sell Indicator* by its original author — thank you for the brilliance!)
---
🧭 **What This Is**
This is not just another price-following tool.
This is **a macro liquidity detector** — a **Daily Higher Timeframe Hull Moving Average of the Global M2 Money Supply**, smoothed via lower timeframe candles (default 5m, 48 Hull length), overlaid with **Ultimate-style double Bollinger Bands** to reveal *over-extension & mean reversion zones*.
It doesn’t chase candles.
It watches the tides beneath the market — the **money supply currents** that have a **direct correlation** to asset price behavior.
When liquidity expands → risk-on assets tend to rise.
When liquidity contracts → risk-off waves hit.
We ride those waves.
---
🔍 **What It Does**
* **Tracks Global M2** across major economies, FX-adjusted, and scales it to your chart’s price.
* **HTF Hull MA** (Daily, smoothed via 5m base) → gives you the macro liquidity trend.
* **Ultimate BB logic** applied to the HTF M2 Hull → inner/outer bands for volatility envelopes.
* **Pivot Labels** → ideal entry/exit zones on macro turns.
* **Over-Extension Alerts** → when HTF M2 Hull pushes outside the outer bands.
* **Re-Entry Alerts** → mean reversion triggers when liquidity moves back inside the range.
* **Background Paint** from chart TF M2 slope → for confluence on your entry timeframe.
---
📜 **Suggested How-To**
1. **Choose your execution chart** — e.g., 1–15m for scalps, 1H–4H for swings.
2. **Use the background paint** as your *local tide check* (chart TF M2 slope).
3. **Trade in the direction of the HTF M2 Hull** — green line = liquidity rising, red line = liquidity falling.
4. **Watch pivot labels** — these are potential “macro inflection” points.
5. **Confluence stack** — pair with ZLSMA, WaveTrend divergences, VWAP volume, or your favorite price-action setups.
6. **Size down** when HTF M2 Hull is flat/gray (chop zone).
7. **Scale in/out** on over-extension + re-entry alerts for higher probability swings.
---
⚠️ **Important Note**
This indicator **does not predict price** — it tracks macro liquidity flows that *influence* price.
Think of it as your market’s **tide chart**: when the water’s coming in, you can swim out; when it’s going out, you’d better be ready for the undertow.
---
📢 **Alerts Available**
* HTF Pivot HIGH / LOW
* Over-Extension (HTF Hull outside outer BB)
* Re-Entry (return from overbought/oversold)
---
🤝 **Join the SulLaLuna Tribe**
If this indicator helps you capture better entries, follow & share so more traders can learn to trade *math, not emotion*.
We rise together — **and we’ll meet you on the Moon** 🌕🚀💵.
Whaley Thrust — ADT / UDT / SPT (2010) + EDT (EMA) + Info BoxDescription
Implements Wayne Whaley’s 2010 Dow Award breadth-thrust framework on daily data, with a practical extension:
• ADT (Advances Thrust) — 5-day ratio of advances to (adv+dec). Triggers: > 73.66% (thrust), < 19.05% (capitulation).
• UDT (Up-Volume Thrust) — 5-day ratio of up-volume to (up+down). Triggers: > 77.88%, < 16.41%. Defaults to USI:UVOL / USI:DVOL (edit if your feed differs).
• SPT (Price Thrust) — 5-day % change of a benchmark (default SPY, toggle to use chart symbol). Triggers: > +10.05%, < −13.85%.
• EDT (EMA extension) — Declines-share thrust derived from WBT logic (not in Whaley’s paper): EMA/SMA of Declines / (Adv+Decl). Triggers: > 0.8095 (declines thrust), < 0.2634 (declines abating).
• All-Clear — Prints when ADT+ and UDT+ occur within N days (default 10); marks the second event and shades brighter green.
Visuals & Controls
• Shape markers for each event; toggle text labels on/off.
• Optional background shading (green for thrusts, red for capitulations; brighter green for All-Clear).
• Compact info box showing live ADT / UDT / SPT (white by default; turns green/red at thresholds).
• Min-spacing filter to prevent duplicate prints.
Tips
• Use on Daily charts (paper uses 5 trading days). Weekly views can miss mid-week crosses.
• If UDT shows 100%, verify your Down Volume symbol; the script requires both UVOL and DVOL to be > 0.
• Best use: treat capitulations (−) as setup context; act on thrusts (+)—especially when ADT+ & UDT+ cluster (All-Clear).
Credit
Core method from Wayne Whaley (2010), Planes, Trains and Automobiles (Dow Award). EDT is an added, complementary interpretation using WBT-style smoothing.
Kalman Supertrend (High vs Low) Bands Inspired by BackQuant, this script modifies the original Kalman Hull Supertrend by replacing the close price with High and Low sources. This creates clearer trend definition and better trend tracking.
This is one of the best trend indicators that can be used for trend trading or to capture reversals with high clarity.
Key Features:
Kalman High/Low Bands — Smooths market noise while separating bullish and bearish zones.
BB & SS Alerts — Triggered only when the entire candle closes outside both bands, helping filter out false breakouts.
Supertrend (optional) — Can be toggled on/off to monitor potential short-term or early trend shifts.
Customizable Display — Show/hide bands, fills, and live candle coloring for chart clarity.
Reversal Insight:
For 4H and Daily charts, reversal signals appear to be quite accurate when the price retests the trend bands before continuing the move.
How to Use:
BB appears when a candle fully closes above both High/Low Kalman bands — possible bullish breakout.
SS appears when a candle fully closes below both bands — possible bearish breakdown.
Supertrend toggle can confirm shorter-term moves or early reversals.
Credit to the original script BackQuant
Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer [BackQuant]Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer
Overview
The Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer is a comprehensive analytical tool that calculates Black-Scholes option Greeks up to the third order for Bitcoin and Ethereum options. It integrates implied volatility data from VOLMEX indices and provides multiple visualization layers for options risk analysis.
Quick Introduction to Options Trading
Options are financial derivatives that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) within a specific time period (expiration date). Understanding options requires grasping two fundamental concepts:
Call Options : Give the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price. Calls increase in value when the underlying price rises above the strike price.
Put Options : Give the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price. Puts increase in value when the underlying price falls below the strike price.
The Language of Options: Greeks
Options traders use "Greeks" - mathematical measures that describe how an option's price changes in response to various factors:
Delta : How much the option price moves for each $1 change in the underlying
Gamma : How fast delta changes as the underlying moves
Theta : Daily time decay - how much value erodes each day
Vega : Sensitivity to implied volatility changes
Rho : Sensitivity to interest rate changes
These Greeks are essential for understanding risk. Just as a pilot needs instruments to fly safely, options traders need Greeks to navigate market conditions and manage positions effectively.
Why Volatility Matters
Implied volatility (IV) represents the market's expectation of future price movement. High IV means:
Options are more expensive (higher premiums)
Market expects larger price swings
Better for option sellers
Low IV means:
Options are cheaper
Market expects smaller moves
Better for option buyers
This indicator helps you visualize and quantify these critical concepts in real-time.
Back to the Indicator
Key Features & Components
1. Complete Greeks Calculations
The indicator computes all standard Greeks using the Black-Scholes-Merton model adapted for cryptocurrency markets:
First Order Greeks:
Delta (Δ) : Measures the rate of change of option price with respect to underlying price movement. Ranges from 0 to 1 for calls and -1 to 0 for puts.
Vega (ν) : Sensitivity to implied volatility changes, expressed as price change per 1% change in IV.
Theta (Θ) : Time decay measured in dollars per day, showing how much value erodes with each passing day.
Rho (ρ) : Interest rate sensitivity, measuring price change per 1% change in risk-free rate.
Second Order Greeks:
Gamma (Γ) : Rate of change of delta with respect to underlying price, indicating how quickly delta will change.
Vanna : Cross-derivative measuring delta's sensitivity to volatility changes and vega's sensitivity to price changes.
Charm : Delta decay over time, showing how delta changes as expiration approaches.
Vomma (Volga) : Vega's sensitivity to volatility changes, important for volatility trading strategies.
Third Order Greeks:
Speed : Rate of change of gamma with respect to underlying price (∂Γ/∂S).
Zomma : Gamma's sensitivity to volatility changes (∂Γ/∂σ).
Color : Gamma decay over time (∂Γ/∂T).
Ultima : Third-order volatility sensitivity (∂²ν/∂σ²).
2. Implied Volatility Analysis
The indicator includes a sophisticated IV ranking system that analyzes current implied volatility relative to its recent history:
IV Rank : Percentile ranking of current IV within its 30-day range (0-100%)
IV Percentile : Percentage of days in the lookback period where IV was lower than current
IV Regime Classification : Very Low, Low, High, or Very High
Color-Coded Headers : Visual indication of volatility regime in the Greeks table
Trading regime suggestions based on IV rank:
IV Rank > 75%: "Favor selling options" (high premium environment)
IV Rank 50-75%: "Neutral / Sell spreads"
IV Rank 25-50%: "Neutral / Buy spreads"
IV Rank < 25%: "Favor buying options" (low premium environment)
3. Gamma Zones Visualization
Gamma zones display horizontal price levels where gamma exposure is highest:
Purple horizontal lines indicate gamma concentration areas
Opacity scaling : Darker shading represents higher gamma values
Percentage labels : Shows gamma intensity relative to ATM gamma
Customizable zones : 3-10 price levels can be analyzed
These zones are critical for understanding:
Pin risk around expiration
Potential for explosive price movements
Optimal strike selection for gamma trading
Market maker hedging flows
4. Probability Cones (Expected Move)
The probability cones project expected price ranges based on current implied volatility:
1 Standard Deviation (68% probability) : Shown with dashed green/red lines
2 Standard Deviations (95% probability) : Shown with dotted green/red lines
Time-scaled projection : Cones widen as expiration approaches
Lognormal distribution : Accounts for positive skew in asset prices
Applications:
Strike selection for credit spreads
Identifying high-probability profit zones
Setting realistic price targets
Risk management for undefined risk strategies
5. Breakeven Analysis
The indicator plots key price levels for options positions:
White line : Strike price
Green line : Call breakeven (Strike + Premium)
Red line : Put breakeven (Strike - Premium)
These levels update dynamically as option premiums change with market conditions.
6. Payoff Structure Visualization
Optional P&L labels display profit/loss at expiration for various price levels:
Shows P&L at -2 sigma, -1 sigma, ATM, +1 sigma, and +2 sigma price levels
Separate calculations for calls and puts
Helps visualize option payoff diagrams directly on the chart
Updates based on current option premiums
Configuration Options
Calculation Parameters
Asset Selection : BTC or ETH (limited by VOLMEX IV data availability)
Expiry Options : 1D, 7D, 14D, 30D, 60D, 90D, 180D
Strike Mode : ATM (uses current spot) or Custom (manual strike input)
Risk-Free Rate : Adjustable annual rate for discounting calculations
Display Settings
Greeks Display : Toggle first, second, and third-order Greeks independently
Visual Elements : Enable/disable probability cones, gamma zones, P&L labels
Table Customization : Position (6 options) and text size (4 sizes)
Price Levels : Show/hide strike and breakeven lines
Technical Implementation
Data Sources
Spot Prices : INDEX:BTCUSD and INDEX:ETHUSD for underlying prices
Implied Volatility : VOLMEX:BVIV (Bitcoin) and VOLMEX:EVIV (Ethereum) indices
Real-Time Updates : All calculations update with each price tick
Mathematical Framework
The indicator implements the full Black-Scholes-Merton model:
Standard normal distribution approximations using Abramowitz and Stegun method
Proper annualization factors (365-day year)
Continuous compounding for interest rate calculations
Lognormal price distribution assumptions
Alert Conditions
Four categories of automated alerts:
Price-Based : Underlying crossing strike price
Gamma-Based : 50% surge detection for explosive moves
Moneyness : Deep ITM alerts when |delta| > 0.9
Time/Volatility : Near expiration and vega spike warnings
Practical Applications
For Options Traders
Monitor all Greeks in real-time for active positions
Identify optimal entry/exit points using IV rank
Visualize risk through probability cones and gamma zones
Track time decay and plan rolls
For Volatility Traders
Compare IV across different expiries
Identify mean reversion opportunities
Monitor vega exposure across strikes
Track higher-order volatility sensitivities
Conclusion
The Crypto Options Greeks & Volatility Analyzer transforms complex mathematical models into actionable visual insights. By combining institutional-grade Greeks calculations with intuitive overlays like probability cones and gamma zones, it bridges the gap between theoretical options knowledge and practical trading application.
Whether you're:
A directional trader using options for leverage
A volatility trader capturing IV mean reversion
A hedger managing portfolio risk
Or simply learning about options mechanics
This tool provides the quantitative foundation needed for informed decision-making in cryptocurrency options markets.
Remember that options trading involves substantial risk and complexity. The Greeks and visualizations provided by this indicator are tools for analysis - they should be combined with proper risk management, position sizing, and a thorough understanding of options strategies.
As crypto options markets continue to mature and grow, having professional-grade analytics becomes increasingly important. This indicator ensures you're equipped with the same analytical capabilities used by institutional traders, adapted specifically for the unique characteristics of 24/7 cryptocurrency markets.
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2007). Stock return predictability: Is it there? Review of Financial Studies, 20(3), 651-707.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
Berger, P. G., & Ofek, E. (1995). Diversification's effect on firm value. Journal of Financial Economics, 37(1), 39-65.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. Futures, 20(1), 40.
Edwards, R. D., Magee, J., & Bassetti, W. H. C. (2018). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 11th ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Giot, P. (2005). Relationships between implied volatility indexes and stock index returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 31(3), 92-100.
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (2008). Security Analysis. 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Grinold, R. C., & Kahn, R. N. (1999). Active Portfolio Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503-3544.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Miller, G. A. (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review, 63(2), 81-97.
Penman, S. H. (2012). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Sharpe ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49-58.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on market volatility: Hedging tools long overdue. Journal of Derivatives, 1(1), 71-84.
Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Greensboro: Trend Research.
Adjustable Percentage Range Moving Average - Add'l LinesThe Adjustable Percentage Range Moving Average (APRMA), originally developed by @ReallyWendy, is a versatile PineScript indicator designed for traders and market analysts to analyze market volatility and identify trends dynamically. Building on the original concept, this updated version plots a central moving average (MA) with four customizable percentage-based range bands around it. Users can select the MA type (SMA, EMA, HMA, RMA, SWMA, TMA, WMA, VWMA), timeframe, and length, tailoring the indicator to their trading style. Each range band (upper and lower) is calculated as a percentage offset from the MA, with adjustable colors and transparency settings for enhanced visual clarity. Extension lines project the latest values forward, with customizable styles (solid, dashed, dotted). The indicator includes toggleable display options for the MA and each range pair, making it an effective tool for identifying price ranges, support/resistance levels, and trend dynamics.
Credit to @ReallyWendy for the foundational concept.
PVSRA Volume Suite OverlayPVSRA Volume Suite v5 is a volume-based candle coloring tool inspired by the original PVSRA system from MT4. It identifies and highlights Climax candles (extremely high volume/spread) and Above-Average volume candles relative to the last 10 bars. Bullish and bearish candles are colored differently based on their volume classification to help spot potential institutional activity or market reversals.
This script also includes a symbol override option, allowing volume analysis from another ticker (e.g., BTC volume on altcoin charts).
📌 Credit to creengrack for the open-source code that informed this TradingView version.
Thank you
Hawkes Volatility Exit IndicatorOverview
The Hawkes Volatility Exit Indicator is a powerful tool designed to help traders capitalize on volatility breakouts and exit positions when momentum fades. Built on the Hawkes process, it models volatility clustering to identify optimal entry points after quiet periods and exit signals during volatility cooling. Designed to be helpful for swing traders and trend followers across markets like stocks, forex, and crypto.
Key Features Volatility-Based Entries: Detects breakouts when volatility spikes above the 95th percentile (adjustable) after quiet periods (below 5th percentile).
This indicator is probably better on exits than entries.
Smart Exit Signals: Triggers exits when volatility drops below a customizable threshold (default: 30th percentile) after a minimum hold period.
Hawkes Process: Uses a decay-based model (kappa) to capture volatility clustering, making it responsive to market dynamics.
Visual Clarity: Includes a volatility line, exit threshold, percentile bands, and intuitive markers (triangles for entries, X for exits).
Status Table: Displays real-time data on position (LONG/SHORT/FLAT), volatility regime (HIGH/LOW/NORMAL), bars held, and exit readiness.
Customizable Alerts: Set alerts for breakouts and exits to stay on top of trading opportunities.
How It Works Quiet Periods: Identifies low volatility (below 5th percentile) that often precede significant moves.
Breakout Entries: Signals bullish (triangle up) or bearish (triangle down) entries when volatility spikes post-quiet period.
Exit Signals: Suggests exiting when volatility cools below the exit threshold after a minimum hold (default: 3 bars).
Visuals & Table: Tracks volatility, position status, and signals via lines, shaded zones, and a detailed status table.
Settings
Hawkes Kappa (0.1): Adjusts volatility decay (lower = smoother, higher = more sensitive).
Volatility Lookback (168): Sets the period for percentile calculations.
ATR Periods (14): Normalizes volatility using Average True Range.
Breakout Threshold (95%): Volatility percentile for entries.
Exit Threshold (30%): Volatility percentile for exits.
Quiet Threshold (5%): Defines quiet periods.
Minimum Hold Bars (3): Ensures positions are held before exiting.
Alerts: Enable/disable breakout and exit alerts.
How to Use
Entries: Look for triangle markers (up for long, down for short) and confirm with the status table showing "ENTRY" and "LONG"/"SHORT."
Exits: Exit on X cross markers when the status table shows "EXIT" and "Exit Ready: YES."
Monitoring: Use the status table to track position, bars held, and volatility regime (HIGH/LOW/NORMAL).
Combine: Pair with price action, support/resistance, or other indicators for better context.
Tips : Adjust thresholds for your market: lower breakout thresholds for more signals, higher exit thresholds for earlier exits.
Test on your asset to ensure compatibility (best for markets with volatility clustering).
Use alerts to automate signal detection.
Limitations Requires sufficient data (default: 168 bars) for reliable signals. Check "Data Status" in the table.
Focuses on volatility, not price direction—combine with trend tools.
May lag slightly due to the smoothing nature of the Hawkes process.
Why Use It?
The Hawkes Volatility Exit Indicator offers a unique, data-driven approach to timing trades based on volatility dynamics. Its clear visuals, customizable settings, and real-time status table make it a valuable addition to any trader’s toolkit. Try it to catch breakouts and exit with precision!
This indicator is based on neurotrader888's python repo. All credit to him. All mistakes mine.
This conversion published for wider attention to the Hawkes method.
IV PercentileIV Percentile Indicator - Brief Description
What It Does
The IV Percentile Indicator measures where current implied volatility ranks compared to the past year, showing what percentage of time volatility was lower than today's level.
How It Works
Data Collection:
Tracks implied volatility (or historical volatility as proxy) for each trading day
Stores the last 252 days (1 year) of volatility readings
Uses VIX data for SPY/SPX, historical volatility for other stocks
Calculation:
IV Percentile = (Days with IV below current level) ÷ (Total days) × 100
Example: If IV Percentile = 75%, it means current volatility is higher than 75% of the past year's readings.
Visual Output
Main Display:
Blue line showing percentile (0-100%)
Reference lines at key levels (20%, 30%, 50%, 70%, 80%)
Color-coded backgrounds for quick identification
Info table with current readings
Key Levels:
80%+ (Red): Very high IV → Sell premium
70-79% (Orange): High IV → Consider selling
30-20% (Green): Low IV → Consider buying
<20% (Bright Green): Very low IV → Buy premium
Trading Application
When IV Percentile is HIGH (70%+):
Options are expensive relative to recent history
Good time to sell premium (iron condors, credit spreads)
Expect volatility to decrease toward normal levels
When IV Percentile is LOW (30%-):
Options are cheap relative to recent history
Good time to buy premium (straddles, long options)
Expect volatility to increase from compressed levels
Core Logic
The indicator helps answer: "Is this a good time to buy or sell options based on how expensive/cheap they are compared to recent history?" It removes the guesswork from volatility timing by providing historical context for current option prices.
Markov Chain Trend ProbabilityA Markov Chain is a mathematical model that predicts future states based on the current state, assuming that the future depends only on the present (not the past). Originally developed by Russian mathematician Andrey Markov, this concept is widely used in:
Finance: Risk modeling, portfolio optimization, credit scoring, algorithmic trading
Weather Forecasting: Predicting sunny/rainy days, temperature patterns, storm tracking
Here's an example of a Markov chain: If the weather is sunny, the probability that will be sunny 30 min later is say 90%. However, if the state changes, i.e. it starts raining, how the probability that will be raining 30 min later is say 70% and only 30% sunny.
Similar concept can be applied to markets price action and trends.
Mathematical Foundation
The core principle follows the Markov Property: P(X_{t+1}|X_t, X_{t-1}, ..., X_0) = P(X_{t+1}|X_t)
Transition Matrix :
-------------Next State
Current----
--------P11 P12
-----P21 P22
Probability Calculations:
P(Up→Up) = Count(Up→Up) / Count(Up states)
P(Down→Down) = Count(Down→Down) / Count(Down states)
Steady-state probability: π = πP (where π is the stationary distribution)
State Definition:
State = UPTREND if (Price_t - Price_{t-n})/ATR > threshold
State = DOWNTREND if (Price_t - Price_{t-n})/ATR < -threshold
How It Works in Trading
This indicator applies Markov Chain theory to market trends by:
Defining States: Classifies market conditions as UPTREND or DOWNTREND based on price movement relative to ATR (Average True Range)
Learning Transitions: Analyzes historical data to calculate probabilities of moving from one state to another
Predicting Probabilities: Estimates the likelihood of future trend continuation or reversal
How to Use
Parameters:
Lookback Period: Number of bars to analyze for trend detection (default: 14)
ATR Threshold: Sensitivity multiplier for state changes (default: 0.5)
Historical Periods: Sample size for probability calculations (default: 33)
Trading Applications:
Trend confirmation for entry/exit decisions
Risk assessment through probability analysis
Market regime identification
Early warning system for potential trend reversals
The indicator works on any timeframe and asset class. Enjoy!
GLOBEX BOX v1.0All credit to the creator and teacher of this strategy, @RS.
The "GOBEX BOX v1.0" indicator draws customizable horizontal rectangles (with optional midlines and labels) around specific opening candles in the EST timezone ("America/New_York").
It highlights:
The 09:30–09:31 EST 1-minute candle high/low for Monday through Friday.
The 18:00–18:05 EST 5-minute candle high/low for Sunday through Thursday.
Various customizable features are in the indicator settings.
Happy trading!
HTF CandlesFull credit to cdikici71 - this is a stripped down version of cd_sweep&cisd_Cx to provide a clean higher timeframe (HTF) candle overlay. Choose colors for candles & font along with timeframe to overlay the HTF on any other timeframe.
Simple and Clean!
Real 10Y Yield (DGS10 - T10YIE)The Real 10Y Yield (DGS10 – T10YIE) indicator computes the inflation-adjusted U.S. 10-year Treasury yield by subtracting the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE) from the nominal 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10), both sourced directly from FRED. By filtering out inflation expectations, this script reveals the true, real borrowing cost over a 10-year horizon—one of the most reliable gauges of overall risk sentiment and capital–market health.
How It Works
Data Inputs
• DGS10 (Nominal 10-Year Treasury Yield)
• T10YIE (10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate)
Both series are fetched on a daily timeframe via request.security from FRED.
Real Yield Calculation
pine
Copy
Edit
real10y = DGS10 – T10YIE
A positive value indicates that nominal yields exceed inflation expectations (real yields are positive), while a negative value signals deep-negative real rates.
Thresholds & Coloring
• Bullish Zone: Real yield < –0.1 %
• Bearish Zone: Real yield > +0.1 %
The background turns green when real yields drop below –0.1 %, reflecting an ultra-accommodative environment that historically aligns with risk-on rallies. It turns red when real yields exceed +0.1 %, indicating expensive real borrowing costs and a potential shift toward risk-off.
Alerts
• Deep-Negative Real Yields (Bullish): Triggers when real yield < –0.1 %
• High Real Yields (Bearish): Triggers when real yield > +0.1 %
Why It’s Powerful
Forward-Looking Sentiment Gauge
Real yields incorporate both market-implied inflation and nominal rates, making them a leading indicator for risk appetite, equity flows, and crypto demand.
Clear, Actionable Zones
The –0.1 % / +0.1 % thresholds cleanly delineate structurally bullish vs. bearish regimes, removing noise and false signals common in nominal-only yield studies.
Macro & Cross-Asset Confluence
Combine with equity indices, dollar strength (DXY), or credit spreads for a fully contextual macro view. When real yields break deeper negative alongside weakening dollar, it often precedes stretch in risk assets.
Automatic Alerts
Never miss regime shifts—alerts notify you the moment real yields breach key zones, so you can align your strategy with prevailing macro momentum.
How to Use
Add to a separate pane for unobstructed visibility.
Monitor breaks beneath –0.1 % for early “risk-on” signals in stocks, commodities, and crypto.
Watch for climbs above +0.1 % to hedge or rotate into defensive assets.
Combine with your existing trend-following or mean-reversion strategies to improve timing around major market turning points.
–––
Feel free to adjust the threshold lines to your preferred sensitivity (e.g., tighten to ±0.05 %), or overlay with moving averages to smooth out whipsaws. This script is ideal for macro traders, portfolio managers, and quantitative quants who demand a distilled, inflation-adjusted view of real rates.
Contrarian Market Structure BreakMarket Structure Break application was inspired and adapted from Market Structure Oscillator indicator developed by Lux Algo. So much credit to their work.
This indicator pairs nicely with the Contrarian 100 MA and can be located here:
Indicator Description: Contrarian Market Structure BreakOverview
The "Contrarian Market Structure Break" indicator is a versatile tool tailored for traders seeking to identify potential reversal opportunities by analyzing market structure across multiple timeframes. Built on Institutional Concepts of Structure (ICT), this indicator detects Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) patterns across short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term swings, plotting them with customizable lines and labels. It generates contrarian buy and sell signals when price breaks key swing levels, with a unique "Blue Dot Tracker" to monitor consecutive buy signals for trend confirmation. Optimized for the daily timeframe, this indicator is adaptable to other timeframes with proper testing, making it ideal for traders of forex, stocks, or cryptocurrencies.
How It Works
The indicator combines three key components to provide a comprehensive view of market dynamics: Multi-Timeframe Market Structure Analysis: It identifies swing highs and lows across short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term periods, plotting BOS (continuation) and CHoCH (reversal) events with customizable line styles and labels.
Contrarian Signal Generation: Buy and sell signals are triggered when the price crosses below swing lows (buy) or above swing highs (sell), indicating potential reversals in overextended markets.
Blue Dot Tracker: A unique feature that counts consecutive buy signals ("blue dots") and highlights a "Hold Investment" state with a yellow background when three or more buy signals occur, suggesting a potential trend continuation.
Signals are visualized as small circles below (buy) or above (sell) price bars, and a table in the bottom-right corner displays the blue dot count and recommended action (Hold or Flip Investment), enhancing decision-making clarity.
Mathematical Concepts Swing Detection: The indicator identifies swing highs and lows by comparing price patterns over three bars, ensuring robust detection of pivot points. A swing high occurs when the middle bar’s high is higher than the surrounding bars, and a swing low occurs when the middle bar’s low is lower.
Market Structure Logic: BOS is detected when the price breaks a prior swing high (bullish) or low (bearish) in the direction of the current trend, while CHoCH signals a potential reversal when the price breaks a swing level against the trend. These are calculated across three timeframes for a multi-dimensional perspective.
Blue Dot Tracker: This feature counts consecutive buy signals and tracks the entry price. If three or more buy signals occur without a sell signal, the indicator enters a "Hold Investment" state, marked by a yellow background, until the price exceeds the entry price or a sell signal occurs.
Entry and Exit Rules Buy Signal (Blue Dot Below Bar): Triggered when the closing price crosses below a swing low on either the intermediate-term or long-term timeframe, suggesting an oversold condition and potential reversal upward. Short-term signals can be enabled but are disabled by default to reduce noise.
Sell Signal (White Dot Above Bar): Triggered when the closing price crosses above a swing high on either the intermediate-term or long-term timeframe, indicating an overbought condition and potential reversal downward.
Blue Dot Tracker Logic: After a buy signal, the indicator increments a blue dot counter and records the entry price. If three or more consecutive buy signals occur (blueDotCount ≥ 3), the indicator enters a "Hold Investment" state, highlighted with a yellow background, suggesting a potential trend continuation. The "Hold Investment" state ends when the price exceeds the entry price or a sell signal occurs, resetting the counter.
Exit Rules: Traders can exit buy positions when a sell signal appears, the price exceeds the entry price during a "Hold Investment" state, or based on additional confirmation from BOS/CHoCH patterns or other technical analysis tools. Always use proper risk management.
Recommended Usage
The indicator is optimized for the daily timeframe, where it effectively captures significant reversal and continuation patterns in trending or ranging markets. It can be adapted to other timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, 15M) with careful testing of settings, particularly enabling/disabling short-term structure analysis to suit market conditions. Backtesting is recommended to optimize performance for your chosen asset and timeframe.
Customization Options Market Structure Display: Toggle short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term structures on or off, with customizable line styles (solid, dashed, dotted) and colors for bullish and bearish breaks.
Labels: Enable or disable BOS/CHoCH labels for each timeframe to reduce chart clutter.
Signal Visibility: Hide buy/sell signals if desired for a cleaner chart.
Blue Dot Tracker: Monitor the blue dot count and action (Hold or Flip Investment) via the table display, which is fully customizable in terms of position and appearance.
Why Use This Indicator?
The "Contrarian Market Structure Break" indicator offers a robust framework for identifying high-probability reversal and continuation setups using ICT principles. Its multi-timeframe analysis, clear signal visualization, and innovative Blue Dot Tracker provide traders with actionable insights into market dynamics. Whether you're a swing trader or a day trader, this indicator’s flexibility and intuitive design make it a valuable addition to your trading arsenal.
Note for TradingView Moderators
This script complies with TradingView's House Rules by providing an educational and transparent description without performance claims or guarantees. It is designed to assist traders in technical analysis and should be used alongside proper risk management and personal research. The code is original, well-documented, and includes customizable inputs and clear visual outputs to enhance the user experience.
Tips for Users:
Backtest thoroughly on your chosen asset and timeframe to validate signal reliability. Combine with other indicators or price action analysis for confirmation of entries and exits. Adjust timeframe settings and enable/disable short-term structures to match market volatility and your trading style.
Hope the "Contrarian Market Structure Break" indicator enhances your trading strategy and helps you navigate the markets with confidence! Happy trading!
DP_ORB Entry & Exit IndicatorDisclaimer:
This indicator is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk. Also, I cannot take full credit for 'ORB' as its a well known strategy amongst many traders, but I do need to give a special shout out to @TheBigDaddyMax for putting me on to this.
DP_ORB Entry & Exit Indicator
Description:
The DP_ORB Entry & Exit Indicator is a powerful tool designed for traders who utilize the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy on the NYSE session. This indicator visually identifies the initial volatility window of the trading day, by marking the 15m High, and 15m Low into a ORB Box, & then tracks breakout opportunities, and provides clear, dynamic trade management levels—all directly on your chart.
Key Features:
Automatic Opening Range (ORB) Box:
Identifies and plots the high and low of the user-defined opening range (default 9:30–9:45 NYSE) for visual reference and strategy foundation.
Breakout Entry Signals:
Automatically detects and marks long or short breakout entries when price closes above or below the ORB range, with additional momentum confirmation.
Dynamic Stop Loss:
Stop loss is intelligently set to the previous bar’s low for long trades (or high for shorts), adapting to market structure at entry.
Take Profit Targets:
Up to three fully adjustable take-profit levels are plotted, calculated as percentages from entry, supporting progressive trade management.
Visual Trade Management:
Entry, stop loss, and take profit levels are displayed as extending dashed lines from entry point to the current bar, with labels always shown just to the right of price for clarity on all timeframes.
Automatic Reset and Cleanup:
Visuals and logic reset daily and upon exit, ensuring a clean, uncluttered chart experience.
How to Use:
Set your preferred opening range time and take profit levels in the settings.
Wait for a breakout and confirmation during the NYSE session.
Use the on-chart lines and labels to manage your trade according to your risk and strategy plan.
Best For:
Day traders and scalpers seeking a disciplined, visual, and fully-automated approach to opening range breakout trading.
Out of the Noise Intraday Strategy with VWAP [YuL]This is my (naive) implementation of "Beat the Market An Effective Intraday Momentum Strategy for S&P500 ETF (SPY)" paper by Carlo Zarattini, Andrew Aziz, Andrea Barbon, so the credit goes to them.
It is supposed to run on SPY on 30-minute timeframe, there may be issues on other timeframes.
I've used settings that were used by the authors in the original paper to keep it close to the publication, but I understand that they are very aggressive and probably shouldn't be used like that.
Results are good, but not as good as they are stated in the paper (unsurprisingly?): returns are smaller and Sharpe is very low (which is actually weird given the returns and drawdown ratio), there are also margin calls if you enable margin check (and you should).
I have my own ideas of improvements which I will probably implement separately to keep this clean.
Contrarian with 5 Levels5 Levels application was inspired and adapted from Predictive Ranges indicator developed by Lux Algo. So much credit to their work.
Indicator Description: Contrarian with 5 Levels
Overview
The "Contrarian with 5 Levels" indicator is a powerful tool designed for traders seeking to identify potential reversal points in the market by combining contrarian trading principles with dynamic support and resistance levels. This indicator overlays a Simple Moving Average (SMA) shadow and five adaptive price levels, integrating Institutional Concepts of Structure (ICT) such as Break of Structure (BOS) and Market Structure Shift (MSS) to provide clear buy and sell signals. It is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on overextended price movements, particularly on the daily timeframe, though it is adaptable to other timeframes with proper testing.
How It Works
The indicator operates on two core components:
Contrarian SMA Shadow: A shaded region between the SMA of highs and lows (default length: 100) acts as a dynamic zone to identify overbought or oversold conditions. When the price moves significantly outside this shadow, it signals potential exhaustion, aligning with contrarian trading principles.
Five Adaptive Levels: Using a modified ATR-based calculation, the indicator plots five key levels (two resistance, one average, and two support) that adjust dynamically to market volatility. These levels serve as critical zones for potential reversals.
ICT Structure Analysis: The indicator incorporates BOS and MSS logic to detect shifts in market structure, plotting bullish and bearish breaks with customizable colors for clarity.
Buy and sell signals are generated when the price crosses key levels while outside the SMA shadow, indicating potential reversal opportunities. The signals are visualized as small circles above (sell) or below (buy) the price bars, making them easy to interpret.
Mathematical Concepts
SMA Shadow: The indicator calculates the SMA of the highest highs and lowest lows over a user-defined period (default: 100). This creates a dynamic range that highlights extreme price movements, which contrarian traders often target for reversals.
Five Levels Calculation: The five levels are derived using a volatility-adjusted formula based on the Average True Range (ATR). The average level (central pivot) is calculated as a smoothed price, with two upper (resistance) and two lower (support) levels offset by a multiple of the ATR (default multiplier: 6.0). This adaptive approach ensures the levels remain relevant across varying market conditions.
ICT BOS/MSS Logic: The indicator identifies pivot highs and lows on a user-defined timeframe (default: daily) to detect structural breaks. A BOS occurs when the price breaks a prior pivot high (bullish) or low (bearish), while an MSS signals a shift in market direction, providing context for potential reversals.
Entry and Exit Rules
Buy Signal (Blue Dot Below Bar): Triggered when the closing price is below both the SMA shadow (smaLow) and the average level (avg), and the price crosses under either the first or second support level (prS1 or prS2). This suggests the market may be oversold, indicating a potential reversal upward.
Sell Signal (White Dot Above Bar): Triggered when the closing price is above both the SMA shadow (smaHigh) and the average level (avg), and the price crosses over either the first or second resistance level (prR1 or prR2). This suggests the market may be overbought, indicating a potential reversal downward.
Recommended Usage
This indicator is optimized for the daily timeframe, where it has been designed to capture significant reversal opportunities in trending or ranging markets. However, it can be adapted to other timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, 15M) with proper testing of settings such as SMA length, ATR multiplier, and structure timeframe. Users are encouraged to backtest and optimize parameters to suit their trading style and asset class.
Customization Options
SMA Length: Adjust the SMA period (default: 100) to control the sensitivity of the shadow.
Five Levels Length and Multiplier: Modify the length (default: 200) and ATR multiplier (default: 6.0) to fine-tune the support/resistance levels.
Timeframe Settings: Set separate timeframes for structure analysis and five levels to align with your trading strategy.
Color and Signal Display: Customize colors for BOS/MSS lines and toggle buy/sell signals on or off for a cleaner chart.
Why Use This Indicator?
The "Contrarian with 5 Levels" indicator combines the power of contrarian trading with dynamic levels and market structure analysis, offering a unique perspective for identifying high-probability reversal setups. Its intuitive design, customizable settings, and clear signal visualization make it suitable for both novice and experienced traders. Whether you're trading forex, stocks, or cryptocurrencies, this indicator provides a robust framework for spotting potential turning points in the market.
We hope you find the "Contrarian with 5 Levels" indicator a valuable addition to your trading toolkit! Happy trading!
Please leave feedback in the comments section.
SuperTrend Adaptive (STD Smooth)Supertrend Adaptive (Smoothed StdDev)
Supertrend Adaptive is a refined trend-following indicator based on the classic Supertrend. It enhances the original by incorporating smoothed standard deviation into the volatility calculation, instead of relying solely on ATR. This hybrid approach enables more responsive and adaptive trend detection, reducing noise and false signals in volatile or ranging markets. The indicator also features confidence-weighted signal labels and a clean, uncluttered display, making it practical for any trading timeframe.
🔍 Detailed Methodology and Conceptual Foundation
Unlike traditional Supertrend indicators that use only absolute volatility (ATR) to define trend bands, this version blends standard deviation — a relative volatility measure — into the calculation. Standard deviation helps capture the dispersion of price, not just its range, and when smoothed, it filters out erratic jumps caused by sudden spikes or drops.
This fusion creates trend bands that expand and contract dynamically based on recent price variability. As a result:
Fewer whipsaws : The trend bands adjust to both low and high volatility environments, which helps avoid unnecessary signal flips during consolidation.
Stronger trend adherence : Signals are less reactive to momentary price movements. This allows the indicator to hold positions longer in trending markets, giving traders the opportunity to ride extended moves.
Bollinger Band-style adaptation : By including standard deviation, this indicator behaves similarly to Bollinger Bands — accounting for relative price change rather than absolute moves alone.
These enhancements make the tool suitable not only for identifying directional bias, but also for refining entries and exits with more context-aware volatility filtering.
📈 How to Use the Indicator
Trend Direction: The script draws a colored line beneath (uptrend) or above (downtrend) price. Green indicates bullish trend, red indicates bearish.
Buy/Sell Labels: Only the most recent signal is shown to reduce clutter:
🟢 Green "Buy" label = trend reversal to bullish, with strong confidence.
🔵 Blue "Buy" label = same reversal, but with lower volume confidence.
🔴 Red "Sell" label = trend reversal to bearish, with strong confidence.
🟠 Orange "Sell" label = bearish signal with lower volume confidence.
These color codes are derived from comparing current volume to its average — a higher-than-average volume gives greater confidence to the signal.
Settings:
ATR Period: Controls the smoothing window for volatility calculation.
ATR Multiplier: Adjusts the size of the trend bands.
Std Smooth: Controls smoothing applied to standard deviation to reduce jitter.
Change ATR Method: Option to toggle between default and smoothed ATR.
Show Signals: Toggle for label display.
📢 Alerts
The script includes three built-in alert conditions:
Buy Signal: Triggered when the trend flips to bullish.
Sell Signal: Triggered when the trend flips to bearish.
Trend Direction Change: Alerts on any switch in trend regardless of confidence level.
These alerts allow traders to automate notifications or integrations with bots or trading platforms.
🧼 Clean Chart Display
To ensure clarity and comply with best practices:
The chart shows only this indicator.
Trend lines are drawn in real time for visual context.
Only one label per direction is shown — the most recent one — to keep the chart readable.
No drawings or unrelated indicators are included.
This setup ensures the script’s signals and structure are immediately understandable at a glance.
📌 Best Use Cases
This tool is designed for:
Traders who want adaptive volatility filters instead of rigid ATR-based models.
Scalpers and swing traders who prefer clean charts with minimal lag and fewer false signals.
Any asset class — works well on crypto, FX, and equities.
Shortcoming of this tool is sideway price action (will be tackled in next versions).
Credit for www.tradingview.com the version which this script extends.
Zigzag Simple [SCL]🟩 OVERVIEW
Draws zigzag lines from pivot Highs to pivot Lows. You can choose between three different ways of calculating pivots:
• True Highs and Lows
• Williams pivots
• Oscillator pivots
🟩 HOW TO USE
This indicator can be used to understand market structure, which is arguably the primary thing you need to be aware of when trading. The zigzag by itself does not display a market structure bias, nor any information about prices of pivots, HH and HL labels, or anything like that. Nevertheless, a simple zigzag is perhaps the easiest and most intuitive way to understand what price is doing.
Choose a pivot style that you like, customise the colours and line style, and enjoy!
🟩 PIVOT TYPES EXPLAINED
True Highs and Lows
This is not an invention of mine (all credit to my humble mentor), but I haven't seen anyone else code them up. A true High is a close below the low of the candle with the highest high. A true Low is a close above the high of a candle with the lowest low. These are solid, price action-based pivots that can sometimes confirm quickly.
Williams pivots
This is how most people calculate pivots. They're simply the highest high for x bars back and x bars forwards. They're the vanilla of pivots IMO: serviceable but not very interesting. They're very convenient to code because there are built-in Pine functions for them: ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow . They confirm a predictable number of bars after they happen, which is great for coding but also makes the trader wait for confirmation.
Oscillator pivots
This is a completely different concept, which uses momentum in order to define pivots. For example, when you get a rise in momentum and momentum then drops a configurable amount, it confirms a pivot high, and vice versa for a pivot low. I don't know if anyone else does it –- although some indicators do mark pivots in momentum itself, and plenty do divergences, I wasn't able to find one that specifically marked *pivots in price* because of pivots in momentum 🤷♂️
Anyway, while this approach needs a whole investigation on its own, here we simply plot some pivots in a smoothed RSI. This indicator doesn't plot the actual momentum values -- for a more visual understanding of how this works, refer to the examples in the OscillatorPivots library.
🟩 UNIQUE ADVANTAGES
In contrast to other zigzag indicators available, this one lets you choose between the standard and some more unique methods of generating the zigzags. Additionally, because it's based on libraries, it is relatively easy for programmers to use as a basis for experimentation.
🟩 GEEK STUFF
Although there is considerable practical use for pivot-based zigzags in trading, this script is primarily a demonstration in coding -- specifically the power of libraries!
Most of the script consists of setup, especially defining inputs. The final section sacrifices some readability for conciseness, simply to emphasise how little code you need when the heavy lifting is done by libraries .
The actual calculations and drawing are achieved in just 8 lines.
The equivalent code in the libraries is ~250 lines long.
All libraries used are my own, public and open-source:
• MarketStructure
• DrawZigZag
• OscillatorPivots
Auto-Trend Finder (Pivot + ADX)Inspired in part by LuxAlgo Trendlines with Breaks. Extended and enhanced for directional clarity and pivot-based precision.
🔍 What It Does
The Auto-Trend Finder (Pivot + ADX) is a smart trend-detection toolkit that combines:
Pivot-based swing detection (HH, HL, LH, LL)
ADX-filtered trendline projections
Custom slope estimation using ATR, Standard Deviation, Linear Regression, or a blended approach
Candlestick pattern detection for added confirmation (e.g., hammer, engulfing, shooting star)
📈 How It Works
1. Swing Detection
Uses ta.pivothigh / ta.pivotlow to mark major price turning points.
Labels pivots as Higher High (HH), Lower High (LH), Lower Low (LL), or Higher Low (HL).
Optionally overlays basic candle pattern names for visual context.
2. Trendline Logic
Connects successive pivot highs/lows with real-time trendlines.
Draws separate Uptrend and Downtrend lines with distinct colors.
3. Extended Projections
Projects extended dashed lines from the last pivot using slope formulas:
ATR-based (volatility)
Stdev-based (dispersion)
Linear Regression (trend best-fit)
Or a Combined slope using user-defined weights.
Color changes dynamically on breakout to visually signal momentum shifts.
4. ADX Trend Strength Filter
Optional ADX filter disables trendline updates unless directional strength exceeds a threshold (e.g. 20+).
Helps remove noise in sideways markets.
⚠️ Important Notes
Backpainting Warning: This script includes a backpainting setting (backpaint) that may cause lines to appear "reliably predictive" in historical data. Backpainting does not repaint once the pivot is confirmed, but it still reflects a post-fact state. Use this feature cautiously in live trading decisions.
Reused Code Attribution: Extended trendline concept and breakout color logic were inspired by publicly available open-source versions of LuxAlgo's trendline logic. Credit is given in the script comments and here as required.
🛠️ How to Use It
Adjust Pivot Length for swing detection sensitivity.
Toggle ADX filtering on or off to avoid choppy signals.
Choose your preferred Slope Calculation Method.
Use candlestick labels as potential entry signals near trendline retests or breaks.
✅ Why This Is More Than a Mashup
This tool integrates several separate technical methods into one cohesive, customizable framework:
It’s not just combining indicators, it’s engineering synergy between them.
The slope and ADX filtering mechanics dynamically adjust to trend strength.
Candlestick confirmation and labeling give visual, real-time trade confidence.
It enhances open-source logic by adding modular slope options, ADX gating, pattern labeling, and user control.
"Know the structure. Follow the strength. Trade with clarity. Auto-Trend Finder is your edge in the chaos."
Random State Machine Strategy📌 Random State Machine Strategy (Educational)
This strategy showcases a randomized entry model driven by a finite state machine, integrated with user-defined exit controls and a full-featured moving average filter.
🧠 Trade Entry Logic
Entries occur only when:
A random trigger occurs (~5% probability per bar)
The state machine accepts a new transition (sm.step())
Price is:
Above the selected MA for long entries
Below the selected MA for short entries
This ensures that entries are both stochastically driven and trend-aligned, avoiding frequent or arbitrary trades.
⚙️ How It Works
Randomized Triggers
A pseudo-random generator (seeded with time and volume) attempts to trigger state transitions.
Finite State Machine
Transitions are managed using the StateMachine from robbatt/lib_statemachine — credit to @robbatt for the modular FSM design.
Controlled Reset
The state machine resets every N bars (default: 100) if at least two transitions have occurred. This prevents stale or locked states.
Backtest Range
Define a specific test window using Start and End Date inputs.
Risk & Exits
Specify risk in points and a target risk/reward ratio. TP is auto-computed. Timed and MA-based exits can be toggled.
🧪 How to Use
Enable Long or Short trades
Choose your Moving Average type and length
Set Risk per trade and R/R ratio
Toggle TP/SL, timed exit, or MA cross exit
Adjust the State Reset Interval to suit your signal frequency
📘 Notes
Educational use only — not financial advice
Random logic is used to model structure, not predict movement
Thanks to @robbatt for the lib_statemachine integration
