XAMD/AMDX ICT 01 [TradingFinder] SMC Quarterly Theory Cycles🔵 Introduction
The XAMD/AMDX strategy, combined with the Quarterly Theory, forms the foundation of a powerful market structure analysis. This indicator builds upon the principles of the Power of 3 strategy introduced by ICT, enhancing its application by incorporating an additional phase.
By extending the logic of Power of 3, the XAMD/AMDX tool provides a more detailed and comprehensive view of daily market behavior, offering traders greater precision in identifying key movements and opportunities
This approach divides the trading day into four distinct phases : Accumulation (19:00 - 01:00 EST), Manipulation (01:00 - 07:00 EST), Distribution (07:00 - 13:00 EST), and Continuation or Reversal (13:00 - 19:00 EST), collectively known as AMDX.
Each phase reflects a specific market behavior, providing a structured lens to interpret price action. Building on the fractal nature of time in financial markets, the Quarterly Theory introduces the Four Quarters Method, where a currency pair’s price range is divided into quarters.
These divisions, known as quarter points, highlight critical levels for analyzing and predicting market dynamics. Together, these principles allow traders to align their strategies with institutional trading patterns, offering deeper insights into market trends
🔵 How to Use
The AMDX framework provides a structured approach to understanding market behavior throughout the trading day. Each phase has its own characteristics and trading opportunities, allowing traders to align their strategies effectively. To get the most out of this tool, understanding the dynamics of each phase is essential.
🟣 Accumulation
During the Accumulation phase (19:00 - 01:00 EST), the market is typically quiet, with price movements confined to a narrow range. This phase is where institutional players accumulate their positions, setting the stage for future price movements.
Traders should use this time to study price patterns and prepare for the next phases. It’s a great opportunity to mark key support and resistance zones and set alerts for potential breakouts, as the low volatility makes immediate trading less attractive.
🟣 Manipulation
The Manipulation phase (01:00 - 07:00 EST) is often marked by sharp and deceptive price movements. Institutions create false breakouts to trigger stop-losses and trap retail traders into the wrong direction. Traders should remain cautious during this phase, focusing on identifying the areas of liquidity where these traps occur.
Watching for price reversals after these false moves can provide excellent entry opportunities, but patience and confirmation are crucial to avoid getting caught in the manipulation.
🟣 Distribution
The Distribution phase (07:00 - 13:00 EST) is where the day’s dominant trend typically emerges. Institutions execute large trades, resulting in significant price movements. This phase is ideal for trading with the trend, as the market provides clearer directional signals.
Traders should focus on identifying breakouts or strong momentum in the direction of the trend established during this period. This phase is also where traders can capitalize on setups identified earlier, aligning their entries with the market’s broader sentiment.
🟣 Continuation or Reversal
Finally, the Continuation or Reversal phase (13:00 - 19:00 EST) offers a critical juncture to assess the market’s direction. This phase can either reinforce the established trend or signal a reversal as institutions adjust their positions.
Traders should observe price behavior closely during this time, looking for patterns that confirm whether the trend is likely to continue or reverse. This phase is particularly useful for adjusting open positions or initiating new trades based on emerging signals.
🔵 Settings
Show or Hide Phases.
Adjust the session times for each phase :
Accumulation: 19:00-01:00 EST
Manipulation: 01:00-07:00 EST
Distribution: 07:00-13:00 EST
Continuation or Reversal: 13:00-19:00 EST
Modify Visualization : Customize how the indicator looks by changing settings like colors and transparency.
🔵 Conclusion
AMDX provides traders with a practical method to analyze daily market behavior by dividing the trading day into four key phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, and Continuation or Reversal. Each phase highlights specific market dynamics, offering insights into how institutional activity shapes price movements.
From the quiet buildup in the Accumulation phase to the decisive trends of the Distribution phase, and the critical transitions in Continuation or Reversal, this approach equips traders with the tools to anticipate movements and make informed decisions.
By recognizing the significance of each phase, traders can avoid common traps during Manipulation, capitalize on clear trends during Distribution, and adapt to changes in the final phase of the day.
The structured visualization of market phases simplifies decision-making for traders of all levels. By incorporating these principles into your trading strategy, you can enhance your ability to align with market trends, optimize entry and exit points, and achieve more consistent results in your trading journey.
Wyszukaj w skryptach "Cycle"
Roman's Ranges(GOLD FUTURES)This indicator provides the user with Gold Future's previous day’s range and how long it took for the price to reach its first extreme for the day. This information is used to predict the most probable daily direction trend and estimate how long you should expect to hold your winning trade. The distance and time are based on the market open candle (6:30 am). It measures from the retracement wick of the candle to the last 5m close of the day’s first extreme low or high point. It also includes that distance in pts.
Previous market data does not guarantee future results, however, you can leverage the knowledge of the previous day’s ranges to set reasonable take profit levels and when your target is not met automatically, you know how long it took on the previous day to reach the day’s first low/high. If you are nearing that amount of time and your trade is not as profitable as expected, it is easier to get out with less profits using this estimated time rather than hoping the market closes in your favor.
Markets go through cycles and it can be difficult to trade them all if you have a fault expectation how how far the price is expected to move. Price tends to deviate slowly from the average ranges slightly day after day, but you can expect an average range to prevail throughout the week +/- 3 points. It can be very easy to be stuck on 5-point take-profit levels that you don’t pay attention to the average range being twice or three times that distance. The same can be said for the opposite scenario with having higher profit expectations than reasonably possible.
This indicator and my statements are not financial advice. This is meant for educational purposes only.
Volume-Adjusted Schaff Trend Cycle (VASTC)Volume-Adjusted Schaff Trend Cycle (VASTC)
The VASTC is a fairly fast-moving oscillator designed to identify trends early and signal when trends may be nearing their end. While it can be used for both trend-following and mean-reversion strategies , it shines in trend-following setups. It’s particularly useful for catching the start of a trend and giving early warnings that a trend might end soon, making it a valuable addition to a multi-indicator system.
How It Works:
The VASTC adapts the traditional Schaff Trend Cycle by adjusting the MACD component with volume data. This volume-adjusted MACD is run through two stochastic processes , applying exponential smoothing to enhance responsiveness. Volume sensitivity allows the VASTC to adapt dynamically to periods of high or low trading activity, providing more reliable trend signals.
Recommended Use:
Use VASTC in confluence with other indicators to confirm trend entries and exits. It’s best for identifying early trend setups rather than sustaining prolonged trend trades. When used alongside other indicators, especially those with a longer-term outlook or momentum based trend indicators, you’ll gain a clearer signal for potential exits or entries. Always backtest the VASTC on your chosen assets to determine the most effective input parameters, as the defaults may not suit all markets or assets. Different assets behave differently, and adjustments in parameters can improve its ability to analyze the assets you're looking at.
Parameters:
Length : Sets the primary smoothing length.
Fast/Slow Length : Adjust the speed of the volume-adjusted MACD component.
Factor : Controls the final smoothing applied to the STC.
Overbought/Oversold Levels : Defines overbought/oversold levels.
Experiment with these settings to customize the VASTC to your trading strategy and asset.
Disclaimer : This indicator is a tool to complement your trading analysis and should not be used in isolation. Always backtest and use other confluence signals for best results. The assets I looked at when making this indicator are almost certainly different than what you're looking at.
New York Midnight Indicator█ OVERVIEW
This script provides a visual tool for traders to track the New York Midnight (NY Midnight), a significant time marker for those who rely on New York’s financial markets. The script calculates the exact moment of midnight in New York and places a vertical line on the chart at this time, helping traders identify when a new trading day begins according to the New York time zone. The indicator also marks the midnight point with a lime-colored downward triangle to enhance visibility on the chart. It is specifically useful for traders who want to synchronize their strategies with New York’s trading hours, especially in global markets.
The script is flexible, allowing traders to adjust the UTC offset to accommodate different time zones. This is critical for those trading in different regions but still using New York as the main time reference.
█ CONCEPTS
New York Midnight: For many traders, especially those following the Forex and US stock markets, midnight in New York signifies the start of a new trading day. This point is essential for technical analysis as it often aligns with daily opening ranges, trend shifts, and volume spikes.
UTC Offset: The script includes a user-input parameter (utcOffset) to adjust the calculated time for New York midnight, ensuring that it accounts for time zone differences. This allows it to be used effectively regardless of the user’s local time zone, offering flexibility to global traders.
█ METHODOLOGY
UTC Offset Adjustment: The script starts by asking the trader to input their UTC offset (e.g., UTC -5 for New York without daylight saving time). This offset is added to the current chart time to align it with New York’s local time.
Current Hour Calculation: Once the UTC offset is applied, the script calculates the New York Hour by taking the chart’s current hour and adjusting it with the offset. This ensures that the displayed hour matches New York’s local time, regardless of the trader's location.
Vertical Line at Midnight: When the current New York hour equals 00:00 (midnight), the script plots a black vertical line on the chart. This line serves as a visual reference for the exact moment when New York's trading day begins, allowing traders to align their strategies accordingly.
Downward Triangle Plot: In addition to the vertical line, the script also adds a lime-colored downward triangle at the same bar location to further highlight the midnight point. This is useful for traders who prefer shape markers to visualize significant time events.
█ HOW TO USE
Identifying Daily Resets: The script makes it easy for traders to track when New York’s trading day resets. This is especially useful in Forex markets, where daily cycles and time zone-based volatility play an important role in price movement and volume spikes.
Time Zone Flexibility: By adjusting the UTC offset parameter, traders across the globe can synchronize their charts with New York time. This is critical for international traders who want to execute trades based on New York market patterns but reside in different time zones.
Strategic Time Marking: The vertical line and shape markers at midnight allow traders to quickly see when a new trading day starts, helping them identify patterns like the daily range, key support/resistance levels, or even potential reversals around this time.
Session-Based Analysis: Traders who work with session-based strategies (e.g., trading the Asian, European, or US sessions) can use this marker to better time their entries or exits relative to the start of the New York session.
█ METHOD VARIANTS
This script can be modified or extended in various ways to better suit specific trading strategies:
Highlighting Other Session Starts: It could be adapted to plot lines for other key session starts (e.g., London open, Tokyo open).
Multiple Time Zones: For traders who monitor several markets, the script could be extended to display midnight markers for multiple time zones.
Custom Line Styles: Users could modify the line color, thickness, or style to better match their chart aesthetic or preferences.
Seasonal Tendency (fadi)Seasonal tendency refers to the patterns in stock market performance that tend to repeat at certain times of the year. These patterns can be influenced by various factors such as economic cycles, investor behavior, and historical trends. For example, the stock market often performs better during certain months like November to April, a phenomenon known as the “best six months” strategy. Conversely, months like September are historically weaker.
These tendencies can help investors and traders make more informed decisions by anticipating potential market movements based on historical data. However, it’s important to remember that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
This indicator calculates the average daily move patterns over the specified number of years and then removes any outliers.
Settings
Number of years : The number of years to use in the calculation. The number needs to be large enough to create a pattern, but not so large that it may distort the price move.
Seasonality line color : The plotted line color.
Border : Show or hide the border and the color to use.
Grid : Show or hide the grid and the color to use.
Outlier Factor : The Outlier Factor is used to identify unusual price moves that are not typical and neutralize them to avoid skewing the predictions. It is the amount of deviation calculated using the total median price move.
Cash Cycle BandCash cycle band shows the number of days and the profit margin compared to the previous period (it does not indicate how profitable the company is, but how well it is managed).
Cash cycle band consists of 6 sections:
1. DPO is the days payables outstanding in the "red" followed by O/D which is overdraft or short-term debt (if any) .
2. DIO is the days inventory outstanding in the "green" followed by classified inventory (if any) consists of finished goods. work in process and raw materials.
3. DSO is days sales outstanding in "blue".
4. DWC is days converting working capital to revenue in "orange".
5. CCC is days converting inventory and resources to cash flow in "yellow".
6. GPM is gross profit margin and OPM is operating profit margin.
The "😱" emoji indicates a value if it increases by more than or decreases by less than 20%, e.g.
- DPO, finished goods, work in process, raw materials, GPM, OPM is decreasing.
- O/D, DIO, DSO, DWC, CCC is increasing.
The "🔥" emoji indicates a value if it increases by more than or decreases, e.g.
- DPO, finished goods, work in process, raw materials, GPM, OPM is increasing.
- O/D, DIO, DSO, DWC, CCC is decreasing.
The order of the list depends on the day of each item, the more days more high.
Advanced Awesome Oscillator [CryptoSea]Advanced AO Analysis Indicator
The Advanced AO Analysis indicator is a sophisticated tool designed to evaluate the Awesome Oscillator (AO) in search of regular and hidden divergences that signal potential price reversals. By tracking the intensity and duration of the AO's movements, this indicator aids traders in pinpointing critical points in price action.
Key Features
Divergence Detection: Identifies both regular and hidden bullish and bearish divergences, providing early signs of potential market reversals.
Customizable Lookback Periods: Allows users to set specific lookback windows to define the strength and relevance of detected divergences.
Adaptive Oscillator Display: Features customizable display options for the AO, enabling users to view data in different modes suited to their analysis needs.
Alert System: Includes configurable alerts to notify users of potential divergence formations, helping traders respond promptly.
How it Works
AO Calculation: Computes the AO as the difference between short-term and long-term moving averages of the midpoints of bars, highlighting momentum shifts.
Pivot Point Analysis: Utilizes advanced algorithms to find low and high pivot points based on the oscillator values, crucial for spotting trend reversals.
Range Validation: Verifies that divergences occur within a predefined range from pivot points, ensuring their validity and strength.
Visualisation: Plots AO values and potential divergences directly on the chart, aiding in quick visual analysis.
Application
Strategic Decision-Making: Assists traders in making informed decisions by providing detailed analysis of AO movements and divergence.
Trend Confirmation: Reinforces trading strategies by confirming potential reversals with pivot point detection and divergence analysis.
Behavioural Insight: Offers insights into market dynamics and sentiment by analyzing the depth and duration of AO cycles above and below zero.
The Advanced AO Analysis indicator equips traders with a powerful analytical tool for studying the Awesome Oscillator in-depth, enhancing their ability to spot and act on divergence-based trading opportunities in the cryptocurrency markets.
TASC 2023.12 Growth and Value Switching System█ OVERVIEW
This script implements a rotation system for trading value and growth ETFs, as developed by Markos Katsanos and detailed in the article titled 'Growth Or Value?' in TASC's December 2023 edition of Traders' Tips . The purpose of this script is to demonstrate how short-term momentum can be employed to track market trends and provide clarity on when to switch between value and growth.
█ CONCEPTS
The central concept of the presented rotation strategy is based on the observation that the stock market undergoes cycles favoring either growth or value stocks. Consequently, the script introduces a momentum trading system that is designed to switch between value and growth equities based on prevailing market conditions. Specifically tailored for long-term index investors, the system focuses on trading Vanguard's value and growth ETFs ( VTV and VUG ) on a weekly timeframe.
To identify the ETF likely to outperform, the script uses a custom relative strength indicator applied to both VTV and VUG in comparison with an index ( SPY ). To minimize risk and drawdowns during bear markets, when both value and growth experience downtrends, the script employs the author's custom volume flow indicator (VFI) and blocks trades when its reading indicates money outflow . Positions are closed if the relative strength of the current open trade ETF falls below that of the other ETF for two consecutive weeks and is also below its moving average. Additionally, the script implements a stop-loss when the ETF is trading below its 40-week moving average, but only during bear markets.
The script plots the relative strengths of the value and growth equities along with the signals triggered by the aforementioned rules. Information about the current readings of the relative strength and volume flow indicators, along with the current open position, is displayed in a table.
█ CALCULATIONS
The script uses the request.security() function to gather price data for both equities and the reference index. Custom relative strength and volume flow indicators are calculated based on the formulas presented in the original article. By default, the script employs the same parameters for these indicators as proposed in the original article for VTV and VUG on a weekly timeframe.
Correlational cyclesCorrelation is a statistical measure that expresses the extent to which two variables are linearly related (meaning they change together at a constant rate). It's a common tool for describing simple relationships without making a statement about cause and effect.
This script allows the user to input a multiplier to reverse the symbol input. This enables the user to look at a correlation measure between VIX and QQQ and the same time.. And get a better of understanding of what is not alligning and what is. the peaks in correlations usually signal a coming volatile period.
Stable Coin Dominance RSIThe Stable Coin Dominance RSI evaluates the relative dominance of stable coins within the crypto ecosystem as compared to the total market cap. As stable coin dominance rises, it suggests that market participants are exiting out of crypto assets and into dollar pegged stable coins. The opposite is true inversely; as stable coin dominance diminishes, it suggests that market participants are divesting out of stable coins and into crypto assets.
Stable coin dominance can be expressed as a percentage of the total market cap as follows: Stable Coins / Total Crypto. The Stable Coin Dominance RSI indicator uses this percentage and converts it into an oscillator using the formula for the relative strength index.
The calculation for the indicator is: RSI
The users can select from USDT and USDC, two most dominant stable tokens by market cap, and compare their relative dominance against Bitcoin and the alt market.
The Stable Coin Dominance RSI may be useful on larger timeframes when attempting to identify the market’s appetite for risk along with oversold and undersold readings which may indicate pivots or turn arounds along market extremes.
The limitation of the indicator lies in the fact that stable coins continue to make up a growing percentage of the total market cap over time and thus comparisons to earlier cycles will not be a perfect apples-to-apples evaluation. This being said, the smoothing function of the RSI’s look back helps to moderate these comparative differences.
Trend IdentifierTrend Identifier for 1D BTC.USD
It smoothens a closely following moving average into a polynomial like plot.
And assumes 4 stage cycles based on the first and second derivatives.
Green: Bull / Exponential Rise
Yellow: Distribution
Red: Bear / Exponential Drop
Blue: Accumulation
Red --> Blue --> Green: indicates the start of a bull market
Green --> Yellow --> Red: indicates the start of a bear market
Green --> Yellow: Start of a distribution phase, take profits
Red --> Blue: Start of a accumulation phase, DCA
10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread by zdmreLong-term bond yield reflects inflation. Short-term bond yields are tools used to predict Fed's interest rate policy. Spread between the two represents four cycles of an economy.
1. Growth
Short-term yield rises as interest rates rise. Spread narrows.
2. Slow growth
Central bank raises interest rates faster and short-term yield exceeds long-term yield. Spread turns negative.
3. Recession
High interest rates lead to more defaults. Inflation caps consumption. Central bank lowers interest rate to stimulate the economy and short-term yield falls. Spread widens.
4. Recovery
Central bank continues easing. Spread remains wide and yield curve remains steep.
0 = Recession Risk
2.6 = Recovery Plan
DYOR
Financial Astrology Neptune DeclinationWe don't know much about the impact of Neptune declination in the financial markets but if we infer the effect of Neptune traveling toward the zero declination we can assume that the effects of illusion, inflation, scams and economic bubble could growth during the next decade giving raise to the super bubble of the blockchain industry. Only future data will give us a hint of interpretation of Neptune declination cycles, perhaps in a decade, PineScript and web clients have evolved enough so we can load 100 years of declination data to analyse the behaviour in major US indexes that provide enough years of data for a more deep study.
Note: The Neptune declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the speed is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Moon LongitudeMoon energy represent the masses, crowds, public places, children and emotions. The transit of the Moon through the zodiacal signs will color the crowd emotional responses that fluctuate based on the elemental qualities of the signs: fire (energetic and impulsive), earth (rigid, static, patient), water (assimilation, transformation, humor fluctuations), air (expansion, fervent, germination).
The daily average speed of the Moon is 13 degrees, for this reason the emotional elemental energy is transforming in average every 2 days and few hours, this mood fluctuations produces the short term instinctive and emotional actions performed by traders that forget the precise mathematical / statistical approach in favor of irrational and emotional impulses.
Based on statistical buy/sell frequency analysis we discovered that for BTC-USD, the Moon is usually bullish in zodiac signs: Aries, Libra, Scorpio, Aquarius and Pisces, the most relevant bullish sign is "Aquarius", from 206 observations in all the BTC-USD price history where Moon was in this sign the 60% of those days the price increased compared to the previous day. The bearish zodiac signs for BTC-USD are: Taurus, Cancer, Leo, Sagittarius and Capricorn, the most relevant bearish sign is "Capricorn".
Interestingly this zodiac sign locations tends to fluctuate during some periods of time and from the last 10 observations of the Moon transiting through Aries we noted that 7 of the 10 observations coincide with a dip, sometimes the Moon in Aries indicate the reversal of the short term trend, this is kind of expected considering that when Moon approaches Taurus the fall becomes more likely due to the fact that Moon in Taurus is a bearish signal.
With this indicator there is unlimited possibilities to explore across different markets and complementing with Moon phases this may be the perfect financial astrology indicator for those intraday traders that keep positions only for few hours.
We encourage you to analyze the Moon zodiac sign cycles in different markets and share with us your observations, leave us a comment with your research outcomes. Happy trading!
Note: The Moon longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the longitude is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart reference timezone.
Morun Astro Trend MAs cross StrategyAstrology machine learning cycles indicator signals with technical MAs indicators strategy, based on signals index of Github project github.com
Schaff Trend Cycle + Double MAThis strategy uses two different moving averages to determine a trend. It opens a position on a pullback from a trend.
Conditions for buy signal are:
►Crossover out of Shaff Trend Cycle's extreme levels
►The price is above its short period exponential moving average.
►A short period exponential moving average is above a long period exponential moving average.
*Conditions for sell are the opposite.
All in all, I don't think it needs to be on your chart but it can be optimized and even successful on some timeframes.
Shaff Trend Cycle solution was provided by @everget, I converted his script to Pine v.4, added exponential averages and created an algorithm for backtesting.
AAEN With Auto Length Adjust to CycleAverage Absolute Error Normalization With Auto Length Adjust to Cycle Length
Indicator by alexgrover, I just added the auto cycle length
Saturn–Pluto Cycle
Indicator colors background of the chart in the following way:
Saturn - Pluto Cycle in conjunction: Blue
Saturn - Pluto Cycle in opposition: Yellow
While opposition periods are indicated according to the actual date ranges an opposition occurs, conjunctions last only for one day.
Conjunctions indicated with this indicator mark a period around the actual conjunction date.
The actual date a conjunction occurs is indicated in the script.
Following the dates which were considered for this indicator:
Dates of Saturn–Pluto Conjunctions
October 5, 1914 at 2° Cancer (recurrence on May 20, 1915)
August 11, 1947 at 13° Leo
November 8, 1982 at 27° Libra
January 12, 2020 at 22° Capricorn
Dates of Saturn–Pluto Oppositions
February 17, 1931 – December 13, 1931 at 19°–21° Capricorn–Cancer (conjunct their respective North and South Nodes)
April 23, 1965 – February 20, 1966 at 14°–17° Pisces–Virgo
August 5, 2001 – May 26, 2002 at 12°–16° Gemini–Sagittarius (conjunct the lunar nodes)
BTC Cycle High IndicatorWith high probability show BTC price cycle highs. When price touches the white line, and when yellow and red moving averages cross, we will most likely have our next BTC cycle price high.
Based on Philip Swift's analysis (@positivecrypto)
Dominant Cycle Tuned Rsi BackgroundBackground version of the Dominant Cycle Tuned Rsi Background published here
Ehlers Cycle StrategyThis uses Ehlers methods to create a cycle trading strategy.
It finds the dominant cycle in the market, then creates filters out noise to create an oscillator. It then creates a trigger line using momentum to predict a reversal in price. Finally, Ehlers Empirical Mode Discriminator is used to evaluate trends and eliminate trading against the trend.
Shout out to HPotter, Everget, and LazyBear for implementing many of Ehlers indicators, which I sampled to create this indicator and strategy.
MAGNUS® CyclesThis indicator will help you if you struggle making any profit in bitcoin.
It generates very few signals with very nice profit potential ( around 100% this year ! ).
Perfect tool for longterm swing traders and new traders that need help figuring out the midterm trend.
Use it with these parameters only:
weekly: 13, 5, 12
daily: 92, 21, 96
