BTC Precognition - Mtrl_Scientist (Multi Time-Frame)Hi everyone,
This indicator is also based on the "BTC Precognition" algorithm, only this time, I've visualized the results on all time frames (1min, 5min, 15min,...,1W). It is supposed to give you confidence in the signals the algorithm already offers.
How it works:
The top blocks are the shorter time frames, whereas the bottom blocks are the longer time frames. As you can see, the signals gradually leak into the longer time frames when a trend is confirmed.
I'm still trying to find patterns, but the most obvious to me was that the best entry is signaled when most blocks of the same color are stacked (marked on chart).
Very good buy signals are often 7-8 green blocks (out of 10) in a row, whereas very good exit signals are 10/10 red blocks.
Note: For best results use Heikin Ashi.
This is still very much work-in-progress, so I'm only publishing it as a private build.
PM me if you want to help test and improve it.
P.S.
As it is with Trading View, accessing higher time frames can lead to repainting. After a lengthy debugging process, it looks like I fixed the repainting issue for higher time frames. However, now there's an issue with skewed calculations on the current time frame (selected time frame == block time frame), that I've only solved for the 1min chart so far (should be possible to fix on all). So please just keep that in mind. As it is now, I'd say everything is correctly displayed on the 1min chart only! You can verify this by refreshing the page and checking if any blocks changed. If they didn't, there's no repaint.
Wyszukaj w skryptach "BTC"
BTC Precognition - Mtrl_Scientist (study version)Hey everyone!
This is the study version of the improved 'BTC - Precognition' algorithm, meaning you'll only see the indicator and not have 'longs/shorts' painted on your chart.
- Works better with normal candles now, as internal calculations are forced to be done on Heikin Ashi, regardless of chosen candle format
- Turned into a study, rather than strategy, as not to interfere with strategies that are already in place
- Added Overbought/Oversold conditions (orange) with adjustable threshold, based on normalized price action helper indicator
Reminder: Only for use with BTCUSD, as it draws data from specific exchanges!
I will also add these changes to the strategy version.
Please let me know what you would like to see improved!
BTC-USD: LONGS, SHORTS & RATIO (Bitfinex)This script allows you
1. to plot the outstanding BTC long (green) and/or short (red) positions
2. to plot an area (blue) corresponding to the ratio between the outstanding long and short positions, shifted and rescaled, such that the zero-line corresponds to the mid-point between the long and short positions: ratio => ratio * mid + mid
BTC Mass profit alarmThis is a modified version of my "BTC Mass profit" strategy so that you can add alerts when a signal is produced
BTC longs vs shorts ratioThis is a simple script showing long / short ratio for BTC using Bitfinex exchange data.
BTC Margin Sniper w/ AlertsMargin Sniper uses 2 levels for overbought and oversold to overlay possible trades on the chart. You can adjust its sensitivity by either increasing or decreasing the overbought and oversold threshold numbers. It must meet one of these levels and the short-term trend has to change direction for it to create the alert and entry on the overlay.
Increasing the overbought input makes the trigger more precise, but it may not trigger as often. Decreasing the oversold input will do the same for that trigger.
You can adjust the alerts and the overlaid position suggestions to match your preferred leverage amount.
To set an alert, click "add alert", then select this script. Choose one of the oversold or overbought alerts and enter your message.
I primarily use this on BitMEX with BTC, but you can use it with other exchanges and coins. You may have to adjust the inputs depending on the coin and the timeframe you use. Do not blindly follow this to make purchases. This is just an alert system to notify you of possible trades.
BTC CorrelationA simple script to display how correlated the current ticker is to Bitcoin.
Inputs are the number of bars to check correlation for (default 10) and the the ticker to use for BTC comparison (default is BITFINEX:BTCUSD)
Values of 1 are highly correlated (i.e. bitcoin moves up, so does your current ticker), values of -1 are inversely correlated (i.e. bitcoin moves up, your current ticker moves down).
See: www.babypips.com for some more details on correlation
BTC Volume in FiatThis indicator shows volume in Fiat. You will get wierd numbers if you use it on non BTC-FIAT pairs.
BTC Dominance/Price vs Alts Logic (QKWESI)BTC Dominance & Price vs. Alts Indicator
Overview: The BTC Dominance & Price vs. Alts indicator is designed to help cryptocurrency traders understand the relationship between Bitcoin's market dominance, its price movements, and the subsequent impact on altcoin trends. By analyzing these key metrics, the indicator provides actionable insights to inform trading decisions.
Key Features:
BTC Dominance Tracking: Monitors Bitcoin's dominance percentage to assess its influence over the crypto market.
Real-Time BTC Price: Displays the latest Bitcoin price movements for informed analysis.
Alts Trend Prediction: Predicts altcoin behavior—such as Pump, Dump, Stable, or Increase—based on the combined trends of BTC Dominance and BTC Price.
Color-Coded Table: Presents data in a structured table with color indicators for easy interpretation.
Trend Indicators: Utilizes clear symbols to represent the direction of each metric, aiding quick decision-making.
Logic Table:
BTC Dominance BTC Price Alts Result
Increases Increases Decrease
Increases Decreases Dump
Increases Stable Stable
Decreases Increases Pump
Decreases Decreases Stable
Decreases Stable Increase
Explanation:
Increases in BTC Dominance & Increases in BTC Price: Altcoins are likely to Decrease in value.
Increases in BTC Dominance & Decreases in BTC Price: Altcoins may Dump, experiencing a sharp drop.
Increases in BTC Dominance & Stable BTC Price: Altcoins are expected to remain Stable.
Decreases in BTC Dominance & Increases in BTC Price: Altcoins may Pump, gaining significant value.
Decreases in BTC Dominance & Decreases in BTC Price: Altcoins are likely to remain Stable.
Decreases in BTC Dominance & Stable BTC Price: Altcoins may Increase moderately.
Benefits:
Informed Trading Decisions: Leverage BTC metrics to anticipate altcoin movements.
Efficient Market Analysis: Quickly assess market conditions without multiple indicators.
Structured Insights: The color-coded table and trend indicators provide a clear overview of key market dynamics.
Bitcoin Power Law Bands (BTC Power Law) Indicator█ OVERVIEW
The 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator is a set of three US dollar price trendlines and two price bands for bitcoin , indicating overall long-term trend, support and resistance levels as well as oversold and overbought conditions. The magnitude and growth of the middle (Center) line is determined by double logarithmic (log-log) regression on the entire USD price history of bitcoin . The upper (Resistance) and lower (Support) lines follow the same trajectory but multiplied by respective (fixed) factors. These two lines indicate levels where the price of bitcoin is expected to meet strong long-term resistance or receive strong long-term support. The two bands between the three lines are price levels where bitcoin may be considered overbought or oversold.
All parameters and visuals may be customized by the user as needed.
█ CONCEPTS
Long-term models
Long-term price models have many challenges, the most significant of which is getting the growth curve right overall. No one can predict how a certain market, asset class, or financial instrument will unfold over several decades. In the case of bitcoin , price history is very limited and extremely volatile, and this further complicates the situation. Fortunately for us, a few smart people already had some bright ideas that seem to have stood the test of time.
Power law
The so-called power law is the only long-term bitcoin price model that has a chance of survival for the years ahead. The idea behind the power law is very simple: over time, the rapid (exponential) initial growth cannot possibly be sustained (see The seduction of the exponential curve for a fun take on this). Year-on-year returns, therefore, must decrease over time, which leads us to the concept of diminishing returns and the power law. In this context, the power law translates to linear growth on a chart with both its axes scaled logarithmically. This is called the log-log chart (as opposed to the semilog chart you see above, on which only one of the axes - price - is logarithmic).
Log-log regression
When both price and time are scaled logarithmically, the power law leads to a linear relationship between them. This in turn allows us to apply linear regression techniques, which will find the best-fitting straight line to the data points in question. The result of performing this log-log regression (i.e. linear regression on a log-log scaled dataset) is two parameters: slope (m) and intercept (b). These parameters fully describe the relationship between price and time as follows: log(P) = m * log(T) + b, where P is price and T is time. Price is measured in US dollars , and Time is counted as the number of days elapsed since bitcoin 's genesis block.
DPC model
The final piece of our puzzle is the Dynamic Power Cycle (DPC) price model of bitcoin . DPC is a long-term cyclic model that uses the power law as its foundation, to which a periodic component stemming from the block subsidy halving cycle is applied dynamically. The regression parameters of this model are re-calculated daily to ensure longevity. For the 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator, the slope and intercept parameters were calculated on publication date (March 6, 2022). The slope of the Resistance Line is the same as that of the Center Line; its intercept was determined by fitting the line onto the Nov 2021 cycle peak. The slope of the Support Line is the same as that of the Center Line; its intercept was determined by fitting the line onto the Dec 2018 trough of the previous cycle. Please see the Limitations section below on the implications of a static model.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• Parameters
• Center Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the grey line in the middle
• Resistance Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the red line at the top
• Support Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the green line at the bottom
• Controls
• Plot Line Fill: N/A
• Plot Opportunity Label: Controls the display of current price level relative to the Center, Resistance and Support Lines
Style
• Visuals
• Center: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Center Line
• Resistance: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Resistance Line
• Support: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Support Line
• Plots Background: Control, color and opacity of the Upper Band
• Plots Background: Control, color and opacity of the Lower Band
• Labels: N/A
• Output
• Labels on price scale: Controls the display of current Center, Resistance and Support Line values on the price scale
• Values in status line: Controls the display of current Center, Resistance and Support Line values in the indicator's status line
█ HOW TO USE
The indicator includes three price lines:
• The grey Center Line in the middle shows the overall long-term bitcoin USD price trend
• The red Resistance Line at the top is an indication of where the bitcoin USD price is expected to meet strong long-term resistance
• The green Support Line at the bottom is an indication of where the bitcoin USD price is expected to receive strong long-term support
These lines envelope two price bands:
• The red Upper Band between the Center and Resistance Lines is an area where bitcoin is considered overbought (i.e. too expensive)
• The green Lower Band between the Support and Center Lines is an area where bitcoin is considered oversold (i.e. too cheap)
The power law model assumes that the price of bitcoin will fluctuate around the Center Line, by meeting resistance at the Resistance Line and finding support at the Support Line. When the current price is well below the Center Line (i.e. well into the green Lower Band), bitcoin is considered too cheap (oversold). When the current price is well above the Center Line (i.e. well into the red Upper Band), bitcoin is considered too expensive (overbought). This idea alone is not sufficient for profitable trading, but, when combined with other factors, it could guide the user's decision-making process in the right direction.
█ LIMITATIONS
The indicator is based on a static model, and for this reason it will gradually lose its usefulness. The Center Line is the most durable of the three lines since the long-term growth trend of bitcoin seems to deviate little from the power law. However, how far price extends above and below this line will change with every halving cycle (as can be seen for past cycles). Periodic updates will be needed to keep the indicator relevant. The user is invited to adjust the slope and intercept parameters manually between two updates of the indicator.
█ RAMBLINGS
The 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator is a useful tool for users wishing to place bitcoin in a macro context. As described above, the price level relative to the three lines is a rough indication of whether bitcoin is over- or undervalued. Users wishing to gain more insight into bitcoin price trends may follow the author's periodic updates of the DPC model (contact information below).
█ NOTES
The author regularly posts on Twitter using the @DeFi_initiate handle.
█ THANKS
Many thanks to the following individuals, who - one way or another - made the 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator possible:
• TradingView user 'capriole_charles', whose open-source 'Bitcoin Power Law Corridor' script was the basis for this indicator
• Harold Christopher Burger, whose Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth article (2019) was the basis for the 'Bitcoin Power Law Corridor' script
• Bitcoin Forum user "Trololo", who posted the original power law model at Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value (2014)
SOL & BTC EMA with BTC/SOL Price Difference % and BTC Dom EMAThis script is designed to provide traders with a comprehensive analysis of Solana (SOL) and Bitcoin (BTC) by incorporating Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and price difference percentages. It also includes the BTC Dominance EMA to offer insights into the overall market dominance of Bitcoin.
Features:
SOL EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Solana (SOL) based on a customizable period length.
BTC EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Bitcoin (BTC) based on a customizable period length.
BTC Dominance EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for BTC Dominance, which helps in understanding Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies.
BTC/SOL Price Difference %: Calculates and plots the percentage difference between BTC and SOL prices, adjusted for their respective EMAs. This helps in identifying relative strength or weakness between the two assets.
Background Highlight: Colors the background to visually indicate whether the BTC/SOL price difference percentage is positive (green) or negative (red), aiding in quick decision-making.
Inputs:
SOL Ticker: Symbol for Solana (default: BINANCE
).
BTC Ticker: Symbol for Bitcoin (default: BINANCE
).
BTC Dominance Ticker: Symbol for Bitcoin Dominance (default: CRYPTOCAP
.D).
EMA Length: The length of the EMA (default: 20 periods).
Usage:
This script is intended for traders looking to analyze the relationship between SOL and BTC, using EMAs to smooth out price data and highlight trends. The BTC/SOL price difference percentage can help traders identify potential trading opportunities based on the relative movements of SOL and BTC.
Note: Leverage trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you have a good understanding of the market conditions and employ proper risk management techniques.
Correlation prix [SP500, TESLA, BTCBefore you see this post I want to thank all the TradingView team. Every day that passes I learn better and better to use Pine script and I owe this to all those who publish and to the philosophy of TradingView. Thanks from Amos
This trading indicator compares the prices of the S&P 500 Index (SP500), Tesla (TSLA), and Bitcoin (BTC) to find correlations between them. To make the prices of SP500 and Tesla comparable to the price of Bitcoin, the indicator multiplies the closing price of Tesla by 114 and the closing price of the S&P 500 Index by 5.6.
In this way we can superimpose the prices on the BTC chart and see what happens.
Average BTC price/ tesla price = 114, so if we multiply the tesla price by 114 times we can superimpose it on the BTC price
At average BTC/SPX price = 5.6, also in this case we multiply the price of SPX by 5.6 to overlay the graph and see any correlations.
The indicator then calculates the average price between SP500 and Tesla, using the formula (SP500 + Tesla) / 2. This calculation creates a new line on the chart that represents the average price between these two assets.
The BTC_SP_TE variable is then calculated as the average of the closing price of Bitcoin and the previously calculated average price of SP500 and Tesla, using the formula (Btc + SP_TE) / 2. This calculation creates another line on the chart that represents the average price between Bitcoin and the previously calculated average between SP500 and Tesla.
The idea behind calculating these averages is to find correlations and patterns between the prices of these assets, which can help identify potential trading opportunities. By comparing the average prices of different assets, the trader can look for trends and patterns that might not be apparent when looking at each asset individually.
The indicator plots these prices on a chart and fills the area between them with either green or fuchsia, depending on which one is higher. The strategy suggests buying Bitcoin when the average price of SP500 and Tesla is higher than the current price of Bitcoin, and selling when it is lower.
To add visual cues to the trading strategy, the indicator uses the plotchar function to display a small triangle below the chart when it detects a potential buying opportunity. This is done with the following parameters:
Value: BTC_SP_TE < Btc and Btc > Btc1 and Btc1 > Btc , which is a logical expression that checks whether the average price of SP500 and Tesla is less than the current price of Bitcoin (BTC_SP_TE < Btc), and whether the current price of Bitcoin is higher than the price 10 bars ago (Btc > Btc1 ) and higher than the price on the previous bar (Btc1 > Btc ).
Text: "Moyen BTC_SP_Te", which is the text to display inside the marker.
Symbol: "▲", which is the symbol to use for the marker. In this case, it is a small triangle pointing upwards.
Location: location.belowbar, which specifies that the marker should be placed below the bar.
I hope this is an example of how to create an indicator on TradingView, remember that correlations do not always last, it is possible that when you see the graph this correspondence no longer exists, do your studies and get inspired.
FTX BTC Move Trend [Ryto]
This indicator helps intuitively see the trend between FTX move contract's strike price (Daily or Weekly) and the index price of BTC.
Blue curve: FTX BTC index price.
Red curve: 00:00:00-00:59:59 UTC+00:00 BTC index price TWAP.
Orange curve: 23:00:00-23:59:59 UTC+00:00 BTC index price TWAP.
Grey curve: The strike price of a move contract.
When the blue curve is near the grey curve, that represents the current index price is near to the strike price of a move contract. Cooperate with other indicators and observe the BTC trend also consider move contract price to decide whether to buy or sell.
Note: Should use the timeframe lower than 5 minutes, to ensure the correct TWAP price.
Reference:
- help.ftx.com
- help.ftx.com
- www.tradingview.com
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這個指標適用在觀察 FTX 波動率產品 (日與週波動率合約)，可以更直覺的看出 FTX BTC 指數價格與波動率產品行權價的走勢關係。
藍色曲線: BTC 指數價格
紅色曲線: 00:00:00-00:59:59 UTC+00:00 BTC 指數價格之時間加權平均
橘色曲線: 23:00:00-23:59:59 UTC+00:00 BTC 指數價格之時間加權平均
灰色曲線: 波動率產品行權價
當藍色曲線在灰色曲線附近，代表此時指數價格在行權價附近，配合其他指標觀察 BTC 走勢與波動率價格來決定是否買入或賣出波動率。
注意: 需使用時匡為 5 分鐘以下，確保指數價格之時間加權平均計算正確。
參考:
- help.ftx.com
- help.ftx.com (MOVE 合约)
- Pine 腳本時匡限制
Best Metal to Sell → More BTCWhichever precious metal has outperformed Bitcoin the most over the last 21 days (by >4%) is showing short-term strength → sell a small slice of that metal and rotate into BTC.
Orange = trim some gold → buy BTC
Grey = trim some silver → buy BTC
Black = no clear edge → hold
This is a gradual, disciplined rebalancing tool for anyone holding physical gold & silver who wants to slowly increase their BTC exposure on relative strength spikes — without ever going “all-in”.
You decide the pace: 1% per signal, pause anytime, or stop when you’ve reached your personal comfort level of BTC allocation.
2020–2025 backtest (weekly 1% rotations):
$200k metals → 18.4 BTC + $0 metals left = $1.68 million
HODL metals only = $320k
HODL BTC from day one = ~$1.4 million
It’s not about beating BTC every cycle — it’s about turning stagnant metals into more sats, at your own pace.
LTPI BTC | JeffreyTimmermansLong-Term Trend Probability Indicator
The "Long-Term Trend Probability Indicator" on BTC is a custom-built tool designed to analyze BTC from a long-term perspective. Unlike short-term indicators that react to price volatility, LTPI focuses on major trend shifts on BTC, and therefore across the entire crypto market, helping to identify major trend shifts early.
This version of the LTPI is applied to BTC, making it a BTC specific trend following tool, but very broad (crypto wise), because BTC is the biggest asset.
Key Features
Long-Term Focus:
Designed for macro market analysis with less sensitivity to short-term noise.
8 Input Signals:
Combines 8 carefully selected inputs (trend following indicators) into a single score that reflects the overall market condition.
Market Regimes:
Classifies the BTC trend into:
Bullish: Strong uptrend, expansion phase
Bearish: Strong downtrend, contraction phase
Neutral: Transitional or uncertain
Visual Background:
Background colors clearly display which regime is active.
Comprehensive Dashboard:
The panel at the bottom shows each input’s state, the composite LTPI score, and the resulting market trend.
How It Works
Inputs Analysis:
Each of the 8 inputs outputs one of three states:
+1 (Bullish)
-1 (Bearish)
0 (Neutral)
Score Calculation:
The total score is the sum of all 8 input signals divided by 8.
Score > 0.1 = Bullish
Score < -0.1 = Bearish
Between -0.1 and 0.1 = Neutral
Background Coloring:
Background colors dynamically adjust to reflect the long-term market regime.
Use Cases
Long-Term Positioning:
Identify periods of global expansion or contraction to position yourself accordingly.
Macro Confirmation:
Use LTPI in combination with medium-term (MTPI) and short-term tools for multi-timeframe confirmation.
Market Timing:
Alerts when LTPI crosses key thresholds help highlight the start of major bullish or bearish phases.
Dynamic Alerts:
Bullish Entry: LTPI score crosses above 0.1
Bearish Entry: LTPI score crosses below -0.1
Neutral Zone: Score moves back between -0.1 and 0.1
Conclusion
The Long-Term Trend Probability Indicator (LTPI – BTC) is a powerful tool for identifying long-term market phases across the entire crypto ecosystem. By focusing on long term trends and combining 8 inputs into a single probability score, it provides a clear macro trend perspective for strategic decision-making.
BTC-OTHERS Liquidity PivotBTC-OTHERS Liquidity Map – 1-hour Multi-Asset Pivot Scanner
WHAT IT DOES
This script tracks liquidity shifts between Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader alt-coin market (the OTHERS market-cap index that excludes the top-10 coins). It labels every confirmed 1-hour swing high or low on both assets, then flags four states:
BearPivot – BTC prints a new swing High while OTHERS does not; liquidity crowds into BTC and alts are weak.
BullPivot – BTC prints a swing Low and OTHERS forms a Higher Low; fresh liquidity starts flowing into stronger alts.
BearCon – BTC prints a swing Low and OTHERS forms a Lower Low; down-trend continuation.
BullCon – No new BTC Low while OTHERS makes a Higher High; up-trend continuation.
Signals appear on the actual pivot bar (offset back by the look-back length), so they never repaint after confirmation.
HOW THE PIVOTS ARE FOUND
• Symmetrical window: “Pivot Len” bars to the left and right (default 21).
• Full confirmation on both sides delivers stable, non-repainting pivots at the cost of about Pivot Len bars’ delay.
• Labels are offset –Pivot Len so they sit on the genuine extreme.
INPUTS
Symbols: BTC symbol and an OTHERS symbol so you can switch exchanges or choose another alt index.
Pivot Len: tighten for faster but noisier signals; widen for cleaner pivots.
Style: customise shape and text colours.
PLOTS AND ALERTS
Four labelled shapes (BearPivot, BullPivot, BearCon, BullCon) plot above or below price. Each label is linked to an alertcondition, so you can create one-click alerts and stay informed without watching the screen.
TYPICAL WORKFLOW
1. Attach the script to any 1-hour BTC chart (or leave the script’s timeframe empty to follow your current chart TF).
2. Turn on alerts to receive push/email notifications.
3. Use the labels as a liquidity compass, combining them with volume, funding or your own strategy for actual entries and exits.
Enjoy and trade safe.
panpanXBT BTC Risk Metric OscillatorThis is the Bitcoin Risk Metric. Inspired by many power law analysts, this script assigns a risk value to the price of Bitcoin. The model uses regression of 'fair value' data to assign risk values and residual analysis to account for diminishing returns as time goes on. This indicator is for long-term investors looking to maximise their returns by highlighting periods of under and overvaluation for Bitcoin.
This is a companion script for panpanXBT BTC Risk Metric . Use this indicator in tandem to achieve the view shown in the chart above.
Please note, this indicator will only work on BTCUSD charts but will work on any timeframe.
DISCLAIMER: The product on offer presents a novel way to view the price history of Bitcoin. It should not be relied upon solely to inform financial decisions. What you do with the information is entirely up to you. Please thoroughly consider your decisions and consult many different sources to make sure you're making the most well-informed decision.
### How to Interpret
The risk scale goes from 0 to 100,
Blue - 0 being low risk, and
Red - 100 being high risk.
Low risk values represent periods of historical undervaluation, while high values represent overvaluation. These periods are marked by a colourscale from blue to red.
### Use Cases and Best Practice
A dynamic DCA strategy would work best with this indicator, whereby an amount of capital is deployed/retired on a regular basis. This amount deployed grows or shrinks depending on the proximity of the risk level to the extremes (0 and 100).
Let's say you have a maximum of $500 to deploy per month.
When risk is between 0 and 10, you could deploy the full $500.
When risk is between 10 and 20, you could deploy $400.
When risk is between 20 and 30, you could deploy $300.
When risk is between 30 and 40, you could deploy $200.
When risk is between 40 and 50, you could deploy $100.
Conversely, when risk is above 50, you could:
Sell 1/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 50 and 60.
Sell 2/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 60 and 70.
Sell 3/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 70 and 80.
Sell 4/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 80 and 90.
Sell 5/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 90 and 100.
This framework allows the user to accumulate during periods of undervaluation and derisk during periods of overvaluation, capturing returns in the process.
In contrast, simply setting limit orders at 0 and 100 would yield the absolute maximum returns, however there is no guarantee price will reach these levels (see 2018 where the bear market bottomed out at 20 risk, or 2021 where price topped out at 97 risk).
### Caveats
"All models are wrong, some are useful"
No model is perfect. No model can predict exactly what price will do as there are too many factors at play that determine the outcome. We use models as a guide to make better-informed decisions, as opposed to shooting in the dark. This model is not a get rich quick scheme, but rather a tool to help inform decisions should you consider investing. This model serves to highlight price extremities, which could present opportune times to invest.
### Conclusion
This indicator aims to highlight periods of extreme values for Bitcoin, which may provide an edge in the market for long-term investors.
Thank you for your interest in this indicator. If you have any questions, recommendations or feedback, please leave a comment or drop me a message on TV or twitter. I aim to be as transparent as possible with this project, so please seek clarification if you are unsure about anything.
panpanXBT BTC Risk MetricThis is the Bitcoin Risk Metric. Inspired by many power law analysts, this script assigns a risk value to the price of Bitcoin. The model uses regression of 'fair value' data to assign risk values and residual analysis to account for diminishing returns as time goes on. This indicator is for long-term investors looking to maximise their returns by highlighting periods of under and overvaluation for Bitcoin.
This is a companion script for panpanXBT BTC Risk Metric Oscillator . Use this indicator in tandem to achieve the view shown in the chart above.
Please note, this indicator will only work on BTCUSD charts but will work on any timeframe.
DISCLAIMER: The product on offer presents a novel way to view the price history of Bitcoin. It should not be relied upon solely to inform financial decisions. What you do with the information is entirely up to you. Please thoroughly consider your decisions and consult many different sources to make sure you're making the most well-informed decision.
### How to Interpret
The risk scale goes from 0 to 100,
Blue - 0 being low risk, and
Red - 100 being high risk.
Low risk values represent periods of historical undervaluation, while high values represent overvaluation. These periods are marked by a colourscale from blue to red.
### Use Cases and Best Practice
A dynamic DCA strategy would work best with this indicator, whereby an amount of capital is deployed/retired on a regular basis. This amount deployed grows or shrinks depending on the proximity of the risk level to the extremes (0 and 100).
Let's say you have a maximum of $500 to deploy per month.
When risk is between 0 and 10, you could deploy the full $500.
When risk is between 10 and 20, you could deploy $400.
When risk is between 20 and 30, you could deploy $300.
When risk is between 30 and 40, you could deploy $200.
When risk is between 40 and 50, you could deploy $100.
Conversely, when risk is above 50, you could:
Sell 1/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 50 and 60.
Sell 2/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 60 and 70.
Sell 3/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 70 and 80.
Sell 4/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 80 and 90.
Sell 5/15th of your BTC stack when risk is between 90 and 100.
This framework allows the user to accumulate during periods of undervaluation and derisk during periods of overvaluation, capturing returns in the process.
In contrast, simply setting limit orders at 0 and 100 would yield the absolute maximum returns, however there is no guarantee price will reach these levels (see 2018 where the bear market bottomed out at 20 risk, or 2021 where price topped out at 97 risk).
### Caveats
"All models are wrong, some are useful"
No model is perfect. No model can predict exactly what price will do as there are too many factors at play that determine the outcome. We use models as a guide to make better-informed decisions, as opposed to shooting in the dark. This model is not a get rich quick scheme, but rather a tool to help inform decisions should you consider investing. This model serves to highlight price extremities, which could present opportune times to invest.
### Conclusion
This indicator aims to highlight periods of extreme values for Bitcoin, which may provide an edge in the market for long-term investors.
Thank you for your interest in this indicator. If you have any questions, recommendations or feedback, please leave a comment or drop me a message on TV or twitter. I aim to be as transparent as possible with this project, so please seek clarification if you are unsure about anything.
BTC Mining Income Oscillator Z-ScoreBTC Mining Income Oscillator (Z-Score)
Overview
The BTC Mining Income Oscillator (Z-Score) is a custom technical indicator that analyzes Bitcoin mining income to help traders identify overbought and oversold conditions. The indicator uses a Z-Score to track deviations in mining income, highlighting periods of high or low mining profitability.
This indicator is made up of:
Z-Score Line (Blue): Measures how far the current mining income deviates from its historical mean.
Mining Income Oscillator (Orange): A scaled value of mining income that oscillates within a specific range to indicate overbought and oversold conditions.
How the Indicator Works
1. Mining Income Calculation
The BTC Mining Income is determined using two main factors:
Block Reward: The number of BTC miners earn for each block mined (currently 3.125 BTC, adjustable in settings).
Transaction Fees: The average transaction fees per block (default is 0.3 BTC).
Blocks per Day: The number of blocks mined per day (default is 144).
The daily mining income in BTC is calculated as:
Mining Income
=
(
Block Reward
+
Transaction Fees
)
×
Blocks per Day
Mining Income=(Block Reward+Transaction Fees)×Blocks per Day
This value is then converted to USD by multiplying it by the current Bitcoin price.
2. Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score measures how far the current mining income deviates from its mean over a set period (default is 90 days). The Z-Score helps identify when mining income is unusually high or low:
A high Z-Score indicates that the mining income is significantly above the historical mean, signaling overbought conditions.
A low Z-Score indicates that the mining income is significantly below the historical mean, signaling oversold conditions.
The Z-Score is calculated as follows:
Z-Score
=
(
Current Mining Income
−
Mean Income
)
Standard Deviation
Z-Score=
Standard Deviation
(Current Mining Income−Mean Income)
The result is then smoothed over a period (default is 5) to reduce noise and provide a more stable value.
3. Mining Income Oscillator
The mining income is scaled to oscillate between +20 and +90. This oscillation makes it easy to track overbought and oversold conditions in the market:
Values between 85 and 90 indicate overbought conditions (high mining profitability).
Values between 20 and 22 indicate oversold conditions (low mining profitability).
Values between 22 and 85 indicate neutral conditions, where mining profitability is normal.
The mining income oscillator helps traders spot extreme conditions (overbought or oversold) in mining profitability.
How to Read the Indicator
1. Z-Score Line (Blue)
The Z-Score represents how far current mining income is from the historical average.
Above +2: The mining income is unusually high, indicating an overbought market.
Below -2: The mining income is unusually low, indicating an oversold market.
Between -2 and +2: This range is neutral, where the mining income is within the average historical range.
2. Mining Income Oscillator (Orange)
The Mining Income Oscillator is scaled between 20 and 90.
85–90: Overbought conditions, indicating high mining profitability.
20–22: Oversold conditions, indicating low mining profitability.
22–85: Neutral conditions, indicating moderate mining profitability.
3. Background Shading
Red Shading (85–90): Indicates overbought conditions (mining income is unusually high).
Green Shading (20–22): Indicates oversold conditions (mining income is unusually low).
The shaded regions provide a visual guide to spot periods when the market is overbought or oversold.
4. Key Horizontal Lines
0 Line: Represents the neutral level for the Z-Score, where the mining income is at the historical mean.
+2 and -2 Lines: Indicate overbought and oversold conditions for the Z-Score.
90 and 20 Lines: Indicate the upper and lower bounds for the mining income oscillator.
Where the Data Comes From
Bitcoin Price: The current Bitcoin price is pulled directly from the chart.
Block Reward and Transaction Fees: These values are set manually by the user or can be updated dynamically.
Mining Income: Calculated based on the block reward, transaction fees, and current Bitcoin price.
Z-Score and Oscillator Calculations: Both are calculated based on mining income in USD over a defined look-back period.
Best Timeframe for This Indicator
This indicator is designed to work best on the 2-day chart (2D) timeframe. On the 2-day chart, the mining income data, Z-Score, and the oscillator are less sensitive to noise and short-term volatility, providing more reliable signals. While it can be used on other timeframes, the 2-day chart offers the clearest and most stable analysis.
Bitcoin Golden Bottom Oscillator (MZ BTC Oscillator)This indicator uses Elliot Wave Oscillator Methodology applied on "BTC Golden Bottom with Adaptive Moving Average" and Relative Strength Index of Resulted EVO to form an Oscillator to detect trend health in Bitcoin price. Ticker is set to "INDEX : BTCUSD" on 1D timeframe.
Methodology
Oscillator uses Adaptive Moving Average with 1 year of length, Minor length of 50 and Major length of 100 to mark AMA as Golden Bottom.
Percentage Elliot Wave Oscillator is calculated between BTC price and AMA.
Relative Strength Index of EVO is calculated to detect trend strength and divergence detection.
Hull Moving Average of resulted RSI is used to smoothen the Oscillator.
Oscillator is hard coded to 'INDEX:BTCUSD' ticker on 1d so it can be used on any other chart and on any other timeframe.
Color Schemes
Bright Red background color indicates that price has left top Fib multiple ATR band and possibly go for top.
Light Red background color indicates that price has left 2nd top Fib multiple ATR band and possibly go for local top.
Lime background color indicates that price has entered lowest band indicating local bottom.
Bright Green background color indicates that price is approximately resting on Golden Bottom i.e. AMA.
Oscillator color is set to gradient for easy directional adaption.
BTC Golden Bottom with Adaptive Moving Average
BITMEX Bybit binance Bitfinex OKCOIN BTC SMA AlertBITMEX Bybit binance Bitfinex OKCOIN BTC SMA TREND Alert
This is a very effective trend strategy.
BITMEX Bybit binance Bitfinex BTC SMA TREND strategy
Strategy principle
HOW TO USE
set long position when a green arrow appears in the chart.
set short position when a red arrow appears in the chart.
For the long position and the short direction, you can set the stop profit & stop loss or trailing profit stop & trailing stop loss respectively.
When a purple arrow appears to close a position, an aggressive trader can go in the opposite direction when it is purple.
Strategy applicability
The default setting is for bitmex perpetual swap contract XBTUSD , bybit BTCUSD perpetual futures contract ,binance btcusdt Spot,Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot,bitflyer BTCJPY Spot,bithumb BTCKRW Spot,bitso BTCMXN Spot, bitstamp BTCUSD Spot,bittrex BTCUSDT Spot,Coinbase BTCUSD spot, deribit BTCPERP perpetual futures contract,gemini BTCUSD Spot,Hitbit BTCUSDT Spot,huobi BTCUSDT Spot KRAKEN XBTUSD spot,OKCOIN OKEX BTCUSD3M BTCUSD BTCUSD2W,Poloniex BTCUSDT Spot etc btc symbol with 30 minutes timeframe.
This indicator has broad applicability and can be applied to multiple different symbols.
This indicator also applies to the ETHUSD symbol etc, just adjust the default configuration.
Using the alert of the indicator, it can work well on the trading robot like Gunbot,autoview, without repaint false signals.
这是非常有效的趋势策略。
如何使用
在图表中出现绿色线就做多。
在图表中出现红色线就做空。
对于多头头寸和空头方向，您可以分别设置止损和止损或尾随利润止损和尾随止损；当出现紫色箭头时平仓，激进的交易者，可以在紫色时就做反方向。
策略适用性
默认设置是针对bitmex交易所 XBTUSD永久掉期合约，BYBIT交易所 BTCUSD永续期货合约，binance币安交易所 btcusdt现货，Bitfinex交易所 BTCUSD现货，bitflyer交易所 BTCJPY现货，bithumb交易所 BTCKRW现货，bitso交易所 BTCMXN现货，bitstamp交易所 BTCUSD现货，bittrex交易所 BTCUSDT现货，Coinbase交易所 BTCUSD现货，deribit交易所 BTCPERP永续期货合约，gemini双子星交易所 BTCUSD现货，Hitbit交易所 BTCUSDT现货，huobi火币交易所 BTCUSDT现货，KRAKEN交易所 XBTUSD现货，OKCOIN OKEX交易所 BTCUSD3M OK BTC季度合约 BTCUSD BTCUSD2W OK BTC次周合约，Poloniex BTCUSDT现货等2小时区间的btc交易。
Bitmex XBTUSD 2H 比特币期货 2 hours Bitcoin Futures
Binance BTCUSDT 2H 比特币期货 2 hours Bitcoin spot
这个指标具有广泛的适用性，可以适用多个不同交易品种。
该指标还适用于ETHUSD交易品种等，只需调整默认配置即可。
Bitmex EOSBTC 30分钟 EOS合约 30分钟 ETHUSD Futures
Bitmex XRPBTC 30分钟 XRP合约 30分钟 ETHUSD Futures
使用该指标的警报设置，它可以在自动交易机器人上很好地工作，而无重绘错误的信号。
BITMEX Bybit binance Bitfinex BTC ETH AO DMI TREND AlertBITMEX Bybit binance Bitfinex Coinbase OKCOIN BTC ETH AO DMI TREND Alert
This is a very effective trend strategy.
BITMEX Bybit binance Bitfinex BTC ETH AO DMI TREND strategy
Strategy principle
HOW TO USE
set long position when a green arrow appears in the chart.
set short position when a red arrow appears in the chart.
For the long position and the short direction, you can set the stop profit & stop loss or trailing profit stop & trailing stop loss respectively.
When a purple arrow appears to close a position, an aggressive trader can go in the opposite direction when it is purple.
Strategy applicability
The default setting is for bitmex perpetual swap contract XBTUSD , bybit BTCUSD perpetual futures contract ,binance btcusdt Spot,Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot,bitflyer BTCJPY Spot,bithumb BTCKRW Spot,bitso BTCMXN Spot, bitstamp BTCUSD Spot,bittrex BTCUSDT Spot,Coinbase BTCUSD spot, deribit BTCPERP perpetual futures contract,gemini BTCUSD Spot,Hitbit BTCUSDT Spot,huobi BTCUSDT Spot KRAKEN XBTUSD spot,OKCOIN OKEX BTCUSD3M BTCUSD BTCUSD2W,Poloniex BTCUSDT Spot etc btc symbol with 30 minutes timeframe.
This indicator has broad applicability and can be applied to multiple different symbols.
This indicator also applies to the ETHUSD symbol etc, just adjust the default configuration.
Using the alert of the indicator, it can work well on the trading robot like Gunbot,autoview, without repaint false signals.
这是非常有效的趋势策略。
如何使用
在图表中出现绿色线就做多。
在图表中出现红色线就做空。
对于多头头寸和空头方向，您可以分别设置止损和止损或尾随利润止损和尾随止损；当出现紫色箭头时平仓，激进的交易者，可以在紫色时就做反方向。
策略适用性
默认设置是针对bitmex交易所 XBTUSD永久掉期合约，BYBIT交易所 BTCUSD永续期货合约，binance币安交易所 btcusdt现货，Bitfinex交易所 BTCUSD现货，bitflyer交易所 BTCJPY现货，bithumb交易所 BTCKRW现货，bitso交易所 BTCMXN现货，bitstamp交易所 BTCUSD现货，bittrex交易所 BTCUSDT现货，Coinbase交易所 BTCUSD现货，deribit交易所 BTCPERP永续期货合约，gemini双子星交易所 BTCUSD现货，Hitbit交易所 BTCUSDT现货，huobi火币交易所 BTCUSDT现货，KRAKEN交易所 XBTUSD现货，OKCOIN OKEX交易所 BTCUSD3M OK BTC季度合约 BTCUSD BTCUSD2W OK BTC次周合约，Poloniex BTCUSDT现货等2小时区间的btc交易。
Bitmex XBTUSD 2H 比特币期货 2 hours Bitcoin Futures
Bitmex XBTUSD 30分钟 比特币期货 30 minutes Bitcoin Futures
这个指标具有广泛的适用性，可以适用多个不同交易品种。
该指标还适用于ETHUSD交易品种等，只需调整默认配置即可。
Bybit ETHUSD 30分钟 以太币合约 30分钟 ETHUSD Futures
使用该指标的警报设置，它可以在自动交易机器人上很好地工作，而无重绘错误的信号。
