BTC/USD Inflation priced in! ~Period 2009 - 2023 (by TAS)The script creates a custom indicator titled "BTC Adjusted for Economic Factors.
Adjusted BTC Price is plotted in red, making it more prominent. The adjusted price is Bitcoin's historical closing prices adjusted for cumulative inflation over time, based on the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rates from 2009 onwards.
The script calculates the adjusted price of Bitcoin by taking into account the effect of inflation on its value. It uses annual CPI rates for each year from 2009 to 2022 to calculate a cumulative inflation factor. The script assumes a placeholder inflation rate of 2.5% for 2023, indicating that this value should be updated when the actual rate is available. The script suggests adding CPI rates for additional years as they become available to maintain the accuracy of the adjustment.
Here's a breakdown of how the script works:
Core CPI Annual Inflation Rates: It starts by defining the annual inflation rates for each year from 2009 to 2022, expressed as a percentage divided by 100 to convert to a decimal.
Cumulative Inflation Calculation: The script calculates cumulative inflation starting from the year 2009 up to the current year. For each year that has passed since 2009, it multiplies the cumulative inflation factor by (1 + cpiRate), where cpiRate is the inflation rate for that year. This effectively compounds the inflation rate over time.
Adjusting Bitcoin's Price: The script then adjusts Bitcoin's closing price (close) for the calculated cumulative inflation to get the adjusted price (adjustedPrice).
Plotting the Prices: Finally, it plots both the original and the adjusted Bitcoin prices on the chart, allowing users to visually compare how inflation has theoretically impacted Bitcoin's value over time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Important to notice, Fib. Retracements from the 2017 cycle top to the recent top (¬80K) doesn't look invalidated.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inputs and feedback are welcome!
Wyszukaj w skryptach "美国cpi公布时间"
MacroJP: US Macro Conditions & Forward GuidanceMacroJP is a comprehensive, free-to-use TradingView indicator designed to provide a clear snapshot of the US macroeconomic environment. It consolidates key economic metrics into a single, interactive dashboard, allowing traders and investors to quickly assess current conditions and adjust their portfolio biases accordingly.
How It Works:
• Data Aggregation:
The indicator pulls monthly data from reputable free economic sources—specifically, ISM Manufacturing PMI, US CPI YoY, US M2 Money Supply, and US Treasury yields (10-year and 2-year). This robust dataset forms the backbone of the analysis.
• Composite Calculations:
By calculating a Composite Inflation Indicator (the average of CPI YoY and the yield spread) and evaluating the year-over-year change in M2, MacroJP gauges both the inflationary pressures and liquidity trends in the economy. These composite metrics offer a nuanced view that goes beyond single-indicator analysis.
Regime Classification:
The core strength of MacroJP lies in its quadrant classification system. It categorises the macro environment into four distinct regimes based on the direction of economic growth (derived from PMI) and inflation (from the Composite Inflation Indicator):
• Expansion (Reflation): Indicative of a recovering economy with rising production and moderate inflation—ideal for a bullish equity bias.
• Stagflation Risk: A scenario of weak growth coupled with high inflation, where a defensive posture is recommended.
• Slowdown (Deflationary): Characterised by contracting economic activity and falling prices, suggesting a move towards cash or high-quality bonds.
• Disinflationary Boom: Reflects strong growth with stable or falling inflation—an optimal environment for equities with some bond diversification.
Forward Guidance:
To enhance its predictive capability, MacroJP incorporates leading indicators by shifting key data points. For instance, it uses a forward-shifted M2 YoY value and a one-month shifted CPI proxy to offer insights into near-term trends. This approach helps in anticipating changes, providing a sort of “forward guidance” that can inform strategic asset allocation.
User Education:
The indicator features an intuitive table with on-hover tooltips that explain each metric, its relevance, and recommended investment biases. This educational layer is designed to empower users to not only monitor the economic pulse but also to understand the ‘why’ behind each reading, making it a valuable tool for both novice and experienced investors.
MacroJP brings clarity to complex macroeconomic dynamics, allowing users to make more informed decisions in volatile markets. Its seamless integration of free public data and detailed on-chart annotations makes it an indispensable tool for anyone looking to understand the broader economic context impacting their investments.
— Jaroslav
Signal Stack MeterWhat it is
A lightweight “go or no‑go” meter that combines your manual read of Structure, Location, and Momentum with automatic context from volatility and macro timing. It surfaces a single, tradeable answer on the chart: OK to engage or Standby.
Why traders like it
You keep your discretion and nuance, and the meter adds guardrails. It prevents good trade ideas from being executed in the wrong conditions.
What it measures
Manual buckets you set each day: Structure, Location, Momentum from 0 to 2
Volatility from VIX, term structure, ATR 5 over 60, and session gaps
Time windows for CPI, NFP, and FOMC with ET inputs and an exchange‑offset
Total score and a simple gate: threshold plus a “strong bucket” rule you choose
How to use in 30 seconds
Pick a preset for your market.
Set Structure, Location, Momentum to 0, 1, or 2.
Leave defaults for the auto metrics while you get a feel.
Read the header. When it says OK to engage, you have both your read and the context.
Defaults we recommend
OK threshold: 5
Strong bucket rule: Either Structure or Location equals 2
VIX triggers: 22 and 1.25× the 20‑SMA
Term mode: Diff at 0.00 tolerance. Ratio mode at 1.00+ is available
ATR 5/60 defense: 1.25. Offense cue: 0.85 or lower
ATR smoothing: 1
Gap mode: RTH with 0.60× ATR5 wild gap. ON wild range at 0.80× ATR5
CPI window 08:25 to 08:40 ET. FOMC window 13:50 to 14:30 ET
ET to exchange offset: −60 for CME index futures. Set to 0 for NYSE symbols like SPY
Alert cadence: Once per RTH session. Snooze first 30 minutes optional
New since the last description
Parity with Defense Mode for presets, sessions, ratio vs diff term mode, ATR smoothing, RTH‑key cadence, and snooze options
Event windows in ET with a simple offset to your exchange time
Alternate row backgrounds and full color control for readability
Exposed series for automation: EngageOK(1=yes) plus TotalScore
Debug toggle to see ATR ratio, term, and gap measurements directly
Notes
Dynamic alerts require “Any alert() function call”.
The meter is designed to sit opposite Defense Mode on the chart. Use the position input to avoid overlap.
Boomerang Trading Indicator# Boomerang News Trading Indicator
## Overview
The Boomerang Trading Indicator is designed to identify potential reversal opportunities following major economic news releases. This indicator analyzes the initial market reaction to news events and provides visual cues for potential counter-trend trading opportunities based on Fibonacci retracement levels.
## How It Works
### News Event Detection
- Automatically detects major news release times (NFP, CPI, FOMC, etc.)
- Analyzes the first significant price movement following news releases
- Requires minimum candle size threshold to filter out weak reactions
### First Move Analysis
The indicator employs multiple analytical methods to determine the initial market direction:
**Simple Analysis (High Confidence):**
- When the news candle has ≥70% body-to-total ratio, uses straightforward bullish/bearish classification
**Advanced Analysis (Complex Cases):**
- Volume-weighted direction analysis
- Momentum and wick pattern analysis
- Market structure and gap analysis
- Weighted voting system combining all methods
### Entry Signal Generation
Based on the "boomerang" concept where markets often reverse after initial news reactions:
**For Bullish First Moves (Price Up Initially):**
- Generates SHORT entry signals when price retraces to 1.25-1.5 Fibonacci levels
- Visual: Red triangles above price bars
**For Bearish First Moves (Price Down Initially):**
- Generates LONG entry signals when price retraces to -0.25 to -0.5 Fibonacci levels
- Visual: Green triangles below price bars
## Key Features
### Visual Elements
- **Fibonacci Levels**: Displays key retracement levels based on the initial reaction range
- **Entry Zones**: Clear visual marking of optimal entry areas
- **Direction Arrows**: Shows the initial market reaction direction
- **Target Levels**: Displays profit target zones at 50% and 100% retracement levels
### Information Panel
Real-time display showing:
- Current setup status
- First move direction and body percentage
- Recommended trade direction
- Key price levels (reaction high/low)
- Profit targets with historical success rates
### Alert System
- Pre-news warnings (customizable timing)
- News event notifications
- Setup activation alerts
- Entry signal notifications
### Success Tracking
- Visual "BOOM!" animations when targets are hit
- Target 1 (50% level): ~95% historical success rate
- Target 2 (Main target): ~80% historical success rate
## Configuration Options
### Time Settings
- News release hour and minute (customizable for different events)
- Pre-news alert timing
- Setup duration (default 60 bars after news)
### Fibonacci Levels
- Adjustable retracement percentages
- Customizable target levels
- Mid-level importance weighting
### Risk Management
- Minimum reaction candle size filter
- Maximum risk point setting
- Visual risk/reward display
### Display Options
- Toggle Fibonacci level visibility
- Toggle target level display
- Toggle animation effects
- Customizable alert preferences
## Applicable News Events
This indicator is designed for high-impact economic releases:
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) - First Friday, 8:30 AM ET
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Monthly, 8:30 AM ET
- Producer Price Index (PPI) - Monthly, 8:30 AM ET
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Quarterly, 8:30 AM ET
- FOMC Interest Rate Decisions - 8 times yearly, 2:00 PM ET
## Trading Strategy Framework
### Core Principle
Markets often overreact to news initially, then reverse toward more rational price levels. This "boomerang effect" creates short-term trading opportunities.
### Entry Strategy
1. Wait for significant initial reaction (>10 points minimum)
2. Identify the initial direction using multi-factor analysis
3. Trade opposite to the initial reaction when price reaches sweet spot zones
4. Use Fibonacci retracement levels as entry triggers
### Risk Management
- Always use appropriate position sizing
- Set stop losses beyond recent swing levels
- Consider market volatility and news importance
- Monitor for setup invalidation signals
## Important Notes
### Educational Purpose
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes. Users should:
- Thoroughly test strategies in demo environments
- Understand the risks involved in news trading
- Consider market conditions and volatility
- Use proper risk management techniques
### Market Considerations
- High volatility during news events increases both opportunity and risk
- Spreads may widen significantly during news releases
- Different brokers may have varying execution conditions
- Economic calendar timing may vary between sources
### Limitations
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Market conditions can change, affecting strategy effectiveness
- News events may have unexpected outcomes affecting normal patterns
- Technical analysis should be combined with fundamental analysis
## Version Information
- Compatible with TradingView Pine Script v5
- Designed for 1-minute timeframe optimal performance
- Works on major forex pairs, indices, and commodities
- Regular updates based on market condition changes
---
**Disclaimer:** This indicator is provided for educational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Users should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation before making trading decisions.
VWAP Adaptive (RelVol-Adjusted)This indicator provides an Adaptive VWAP that adjusts volume weighting using RelVol (Relative Volume at Time), offering a more accurate and context-aware price reference during sessions with irregular volume behavior.
Classic VWAP calculates the average price weighted by raw volume, without considering the time of day. This becomes a serious limitation during major market events such as CPI releases, FOMC announcements, NFP, or large-cap earnings. These events often trigger massive volume spikes within one or two candles. As a result, the classic VWAP gets pulled toward those extreme prices and becomes permanently skewed for the rest of the session.
In such conditions, classic VWAP becomes unreliable. It no longer reflects fair value and often misleads traders relying on it for dynamic support, resistance, or reversion signals.
This Adaptive VWAP improves on that by using RelVol, which compares the current volume to the average volume seen at the same time over previous sessions. It gives more weight to price when volume is typical for that moment, and adjusts the influence when volume is statistically abnormal. This reduces the impact of isolated volume spikes and stabilizes the VWAP path, even in high-volatility environments.
For example, on SPY 1-minute or 5-minute charts during a CPI release, a massive spike in volume and price can occur within a single candle. Classic VWAP will immediately anchor itself to that spike. Adaptive VWAP using RelVol softens that effect and maintains a more realistic trajectory.
Key features:
- Adaptive VWAP weighted by time-adjusted Relative Volume (RelVol)
- Designed to maintain VWAP reliability during macroeconomic events
- Flexible anchoring: Session, Week, Month, Quarter, Earnings, etc.
- Optional display of Classic VWAP for comparison
- Up to 3 customizable deviation bands (standard deviation or percentage)
This tool is ideal for intraday traders who need a VWAP that remains usable and unbiased, even in volatile sessions. It adds robustness to VWAP-based strategies by incorporating time-sensitive volume normalization.
Econometrica by [SS]This is Econometrica, an indicator that aims to bridge a big gap between the resources available for analysis of fundamental data and its impact on tickers and price action.
I have noticed a general dearth of available indicators that offer insight into how fundamentals impact a ticker and provide guidance on how they these economic factors influence ticker behaviour.
Enter Econometrica. Econometrica is a math based indicator that aims to co-integrate and model indicator price action in relation to critical economic metrics.
Econometrica supports the following US based economic data:
CPI
Non-Farm Payroll
Core Inflation
US Money Supply
US Central Bank Balance Sheet
GDP
PCE
Let's go over the functions of Econometrica.
Creating a Regression Cointegrated Model
The first thing Econometrica does is creates a co-integrated regression, as you see in the main chart, predicting ticker value ranges from fundamental economic data.
You can visualize this in the main chart above, but here are some other examples:
SPY vs Core Inflation:
BA vs PCE:
QQQ vs US Balance Sheet:
The band represents the anticipated range the ticker should theoretically fall in based on the underlying economic value. The indicator will breakdown the relationship between the economic indicator and the ticker more precisely. In the images above, you can see how there are some metrics provided, including Stationairty, lagged correlation, Integrated Correlation and R2. Let's discuss these very briefly:
Stationarity: checks to ensure that the relationship between the economic indicator and ticker is stationary. Stationary data is important for making unbiased inferences and projections, so having data that is stationary is valuable.
Lagged Correlation: This is a very interesting metric. Lagged correlation means whether there is a delay in the economic indicator and the response of the ticker. Typically, you will observed a lagged correlation between an economic indicator and price of a ticker, as it can take some time for economic changes to reach the market. This lagged correlation will provide you with how long it takes for the economic indicator to catch up with the ticker in months.
Integrated Correlation: This metric tells you how good of a fit the regression bands are in relation to the ticker price. A higher correlation, means the model is better at consistent and accurate information about the anticipated range for the ticker in relation to the economic indicator.
R2: Provides information on the variance and degree of model fit. A high R2 value means that the model is capable of explaining a large amount of variance between the economic indicator and the ticker price action.
Explaining the Relationship
Owning to the fact that the indicator is a bit on the mathy side (it has to be to do this kind of task), I have included ability for the indicator to explain and make suggestions based on the underlying data. It can assess the model's fit and make suggestions for tweaking. It can also explain the implications of the data being presented in the model.
Here is an example with QQQ and the US Balance Sheet:
This helps to simplify and interpret the results you are looking at.
Forecasting the Economic Indicator
In addition to assessing the economic indicator's impact on the ticker, the indicator is also capable of forecasting out the economic indicator over the next 25 releases.
Here is an example of the CPI forecast:
Overall use of the indicator
The indicator is meant to bridge the gap between Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis.
Any trader who is attune to fundamentals would benefit from this, as this provides you with objective data on how and to what extent fundamental and economic data impacts tickers.
It can help affirm hypothesis and dispel myths objectively.
It also omits the need from having to perform these types of analyses outside of Tradingview (i.e. in excel, R or Python), as you can get the data in just a few licks of enabling the indicator.
Conclusion
I have tried to make this indicator as user friendly as possible. Though it uses a lot of math, it is fairly straight forward to interpret.
The band plotted can be considered the fair market value or FMV of the ticker based on the underlying economic data, provided the indicator tells you that the relationship is significant (and it will blatantly give you this information verbatim, you don't have to interpret the math stuff).
This is US economic data only. It does not pull economic data from other countries. You can absolutely see how US economic data impacts other markets like the TSX, BANKNIFTY, NIFTY, DAX etc. but the indicator is only pulling US economic data.
That is it!
I hope you enjoy it and find this helpful!
Thanks everyone and safe trades as always 🚀🚀🚀
Economic Calendar EventsThis indicator provides an overlay of Events on the main chart, where each Event is visually represented by a Label and vertical Line, placed at the specified time interval for each Event.
Events are defined by user data as an input string on the settings widget panel for the indicator. The event data is a string (semicolon delimited) whose grammar is a representation of a collection of Event records, where each Event record is a comma-separated list of fields, which correspond to:
The name of the event.
The symbol or ticker to which the Event applies (or `*` if it should apply to all ticklers).
The timezone and then the year, month, day, hour, and minute of the event, respectively.
Each Event record is separated by the semicolon ";" character.
As an example , assume `evantData` is the string:
"SVB,*,UTC,2023,03,10,00,00;US CPI,*,UTC,2023,04,12,08,30;ETH Shanghai,ETHUSD,UTC,2023,04,12,08,30"
In the above case, there are 4 Events defined, three of which apply to all tickers and one applies only to ETHUSD, as follows:
The first event is named SVB and applies to all tickers at UTC time on March 10, 2023 at 12:00:00.
The second event is named US CPI and applies to all tickers at UTC time on April 12, 2023 at 08:30:00.
The third event is named ETH Shanghai and applies to the ETHUSD ticker at UTC time on April 12, 2023 at 08:30:00.
The fourth event is named FOMC Rates and applies to all tickers at UTC time on May 3, 2023 at 14:00:00.
The following is a BNF for defining event data:
market-events ::= event-record | event-record ";" market-events
event-record ::= event-name "," ticker ”,” event-timezone "," event-time
event-name ::= string
event-time>::= year "," month "," day "," hour "," minute
event-timezone ::= string
ticker ::= "*" | string
string ::= +
year ::= {4}
month ::= {2}
day ::= {2}
hour ::= {2}
minute ::= {2}
Inflation-Adjusted CandlesDeflates time series of historical open, close, high, low prices. This adjusts price data for inflation and removes the effect of price inflation.
inflation-adjusted price for period 't' = (price / cpi ) * 100
Historical CPI is pulled from Quandl.
NR7 Indicator Based on Thomas Bulkowski's TheoriesThis NR7 indicator was built on the concept by Thomas Bulkowski and his ThePatternSite. NR7 is based on high to low price range (true range) that is the smallest of the prior 6 days (7 days total), when one NR7 shows, it means that today's candle body (low to high) is the narrowest of the past 7 days. Then if the current close is higher than the NR7's high, we call it a bullish breakout; and if the current close is lower than the NR7's low, we call it a bearish breakout. Regardless the direction, once the current close price goes above or below the high or low of the NR7 candle, we call it a "breakout" in this strategy. Bulkowski suggested on his website that only gave 7 calendar days (NOT trading days) for the symbol to breakout after NR7 occurs, and if the underlying asset does not breakout within 7 calendar days after one NR7 occurs, we would abandon this NR7 signal and start recounting again.
Since most securities/indexes do not trade on the weekends and have no data available, I switched 7 calendar days breakout limit to 5 trading days breakout limit, which will work on most assets. However, if you are trading cryptocurrencies or forex which have data on the weekends, feel free to add 2 more days to finish the NR7 count, all you have to do is to add "Buy6", "Buy7", "Sell6" and "Sell7" under line 11 and line 17, then add the senarioes under those "if" statements.
Every "NR7" will show up on the chart with a cross symbol and text next to it, then green arrowups show bullish signals and red arrowdowns show bearish signals. Bulkowski also added a "CPI" index on his NR7 strategy, this indicator does not include that "CPI equation" for simplicity purposes and other time frame tradings other than just weekly signals. Please like and share this script, let me know if any questions, thanks!
ARO Pro — Adaptive Regime OscillatorARO Pro — Adaptive Regime Oscillator (v6)
ARO Pro turns your chart into a context-aware decision system. It classifies every bar as Trending (up or down) or Ranging in real time, then switches its math to match the regime: trend strength is measured with an ATR-normalized EMA spread, while range behavior is tracked with a center-based RSI oscillator. The result is cleaner entries, fewer false signals, and faster reads on regime shifts—without repainting.
⸻
How it works (under the hood)
1. Regime Detection (Kaufman ER):
ARO computes Kaufman’s Efficiency Ratio (ER) over a user-defined length.
- ER > threshold → Trending (direction from EMA fast vs. EMA slow)
- ER ≤ threshold → Ranging
2. Adaptive Oscillator Core:
- Trend mode: (EMA(fast) − EMA(slow)) / ATR * 100 → momentum normalized by volatility.
- Range mode: RSI(length) − 50 → mean-reversion pressure around zero.
3. Volatility Filter (optional):
Blocks signals if ATR as % of price is below a floor you set. This reduces noise in thin or quiet markets.
4. MTF Trend Filter (optional & non-repainting):
Confirms signals only if a higher timeframe EMA(fast) > EMA(slow) for longs (or < for shorts). Implemented with lookahead_off and gaps_on.
5. Confirmation & Alerts:
Signals are locked only on bar close (barstate.isconfirmed) and offered via three alert types: ARO Long, ARO Short, ARO Regime Shift.
⸻
What you see on the chart
• Background heat:
• Green = Trending Up, Red = Trending Down, Gray = Range.
• ARO line (panel): Adaptive oscillator (trend/value colors).
• Signal markers: ▲ Long / ▼ Short on confirmed bars.
• Guide lines: Upper/Lower thresholds (±K) and zero line.
• Info Panel (table): Regime, ER, ATR %, ARO, HTF status (OK/BLOCK/OFF), and a Confidence light.
• Debug Overlay (optional): Quick view of thresholds and raw conditions for tuning.
⸻
Inputs (quick reference)
• Signals: Fast/Slow EMA, RSI length, ER length & threshold, oscillator smoothing, signal threshold.
• Filters: ATR length, minimum ATR% (volatility floor), toggle for volatility filter.
• Visuals: Background on/off, Info Panel on/off, Debug overlay on/off.
• MTF (safe): Toggle + HTF timeframe (e.g., 240, D, W).
⸻
Interpreting signals
• Long: Trend regime AND fast EMA > slow EMA AND ARO ≥ +threshold (confirmed bar, filters passing).
• Short: Trend regime AND fast EMA < slow EMA AND ARO ≤ −threshold (confirmed bar, filters passing).
• Regime Shift: Alert when ER moves the market from Range → Trend or flips trend direction.
⸻
Practical use cases & examples
1) Intraday momentum alignment (scalps to day trades)
• Timeframes: 5–15m with HTF filter = 4H.
• Flow:
1. Wait for Trend Up background + HTF OK.
2. Enter on ▲ Long when ARO crosses above +threshold.
3. Stops: 1–1.5× ATR(14) below trigger bar or below last micro swing.
4. Exits: Partial at 1× ATR, trail remainder with an ATR stop or when ARO reverts to zero/Regime Shift.
• Why it works: You’re trading with the dominant higher-timeframe structure while avoiding low-volatility fakeouts.
2) Swing trend following (cleaner trend legs)
• Timeframes: 1H–4H with HTF filter = 1D.
• Flow:
1. Only act in Trend background aligned with HTF.
2. Add on subsequent ▲ signals as ARO maintains positive (or negative) territory.
3. Reduce or exit on Regime Shift (Trend → Range or direction flip) or when ARO crosses back through zero.
• Stops/targets: Initial 1.5–2× ATR; move to breakeven once the trade gains 1× ATR; trail with a multiple-ATR or structure lows/highs.
3) Range tactics (fade the extremes)
• Timeframes: 15m–1H or 1D on mean-reverting names.
• Flow:
1. Act only when background = Range.
2. Fade moves when ARO swings from ±extremes back toward zero near well-defined S/R.
3. Exit at the opposite band or zero line; abort if a Regime Shift to Trend occurs.
• Tip: Increase ER threshold (e.g., 0.35–0.40) to label more bars as Range on choppy instruments.
4) Event days & macro filters
• Approach: Raise the volatility floor (Min ATR%) on macro days (FOMC, CPI).
• Effect: You’ll ignore “fake” micro swings in the minutes leading up to releases and catch only post-event confirmed momentum.
⸻
Parameter tuning guide
• ER Threshold:
• Lower (0.20–0.30) = more Trend bars, more signals, higher noise.
• Higher (0.35–0.45) = stricter trend confirmation, fewer but cleaner signals.
• Signal Threshold (±K):
• Raise to reduce whipsaws; lower for earlier but noisier triggers.
• Volatility Floor (ATR%):
• Thin/quiet assets benefit from a higher floor (e.g., 0.3–0.6).
• Highly liquid futures/forex can work with lower floors.
• HTF Filter:
• Keep it ON when you want higher win consistency; turn OFF for tactical counter-trend plays.
⸻
Alerts (recommended setup)
• “ARO Long” / “ARO Short”: Entry-style alerts on confirmed signals.
• “ARO Regime Shift”: Context alert to scale in/out or switch playbooks (trend vs. range).
All alerts are non-repainting and fire only when the bar closes.
⸻
Best practices & combinations
• Price action & S/R: Use ARO to define when to engage, and price structure to define where (breakout levels, pullback zones).
• VWAP/Session tools: In intraday trends, ▲ signals above VWAP tend to carry; avoid shorts below session VWAP in strong downtrends.
• Risk first: Size by ATR; never let a single ARO event override your max risk per trade.
• Portfolio filter: On indices/ETFs, enable HTF filter and a stricter ER threshold to ride regime legs.
⸻
Non-repaint and implementation notes
• The script does not repaint:
• Signals are computed and locked on bar close (barstate.isconfirmed).
• All higher-timeframe data uses request.security(..., lookahead_off, gaps_on).
• No future indexing or negative offsets are used.
• The Info Panel and Debug overlay are purely visual aids and do not change signal logic.
⸻
Limitations & tips
• Chop sensitivity: In hyper-choppy symbols, consider raising ER threshold and the signal threshold, and enable HTF filter.
• Instrument personality: EMAs/RSI lengths and volatility floor often need a quick 2–3 minute tune per asset class (FX vs. crypto vs. equities).
• No guarantees: ARO improves context and timing, but it is not a promise of profitability—always combine with risk management.
⸻
Quick start (TL;DR)
1. Timeframes: 5–15m intraday (HTF = 4H); 1H–4H swing (HTF = 1D).
2. Use defaults, then tune ER threshold (0.25–0.40) and Signal threshold (±20).
3. Enable Volatility Floor (e.g., 0.2–0.5 ATR%) on quiet assets.
4. Trade ▲ / ▼ only in matching Trend background; fade extremes only in Range background.
5. Set alerts for Long, Short, and Regime Shift; manage risk with ATR stops.
⸻
Author’s note: ARO Pro is designed to be clear, adaptive, and operational out of the box. If you publish variants (e.g., different ER logic, alternative trend cores), please credit the original and document any changes so users can compare behavior reliably.
ORB Pro w/ Filters + Debug Overlay Update with Reason box fixThis indicator is designed to highlight high-probability reversal setups for intraday traders.
It focuses on the cleanest, most reliable candlestick reversal patterns and combines them with trend, VWAP/EMA confluence, and a time-based filter to reduce noise.
🛠️ How It Works
The script scans each bar for well-known reversal signals:
Doji Reversal – small body, long wicks showing indecision.
Hammer / Shooting Star – long wick ≥ 2× body, showing exhaustion.
Engulfing Reversal – full body engulf of the prior candle.
Additional filters include:
✅ VWAP/EMA Confluence (optional) – confirms reversals near key intraday levels.
✅ Time Window (default 9:30–10:30 NY) – avoids false signals later in the session.
✅ Trend Exhaustion Check – requires a short-term directional push before reversal.
✅ Signal Cooldown – limits to one clean signal per move.
When conditions align, the script plots:
🟢 “Bull Rev” label below the bar for bullish reversals.
🔴 “Bear Rev” label above the bar for bearish reversals.
⚙️ Recommended Settings
For the tightest, most reliable signals:
Doji Body % → 25–30
Hammer Wick Multiple → 2.0
Confluence Tolerance % → 0.2–0.3
Time Filter → ON (9:30–10:30 NY)
VWAP/EMA Filter → ON
Cooldown Bars → 10–15
These settings minimize false positives and focus on the strongest reversals.
📈 Use Case
This tool is best for:
Intraday traders (stocks, ETFs, futures, crypto).
Traders who use Opening Range Breakout (ORB) or similar systems but want a secondary tool for catching reversals.
Anyone looking to filter out weak reversal patterns and focus on textbook setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always test in simulation/paper trading before applying live
🚀 Catch textbook reversals with confidence.
This indicator filters out noise and only plots high-probability reversal signals based on proven candlestick patterns + VWAP/EMA confluence.
🔥 Key Features:
✅ Detects Doji, Hammer/Shooting Star, and Engulfing Reversals
✅ VWAP & EMA confluence filter (optional)
✅ Time window filter (default 9:30–10:30 NY for max edge)
✅ Signal cooldown to avoid clutter
✅ Clean chart labels + alert conditions
🎯 Who’s It For?
Day traders who want precision reversal entries
ORB traders looking for secondary setups
Intraday scalpers who value quality over quantity
👉 Designed for traders who want fewer, cleaner, higher-probability signals.
⚠️ Not financial advice. For educational use only
_____
🎯 ORB SET-UP DESCRIPTIONS:
🔧 Exact settings I’d recommend (to avoid that mess):
requireClose = true
requireRetest = true with retestPct = 0.2%
minRangePct = 0.3%, maxRangePct = 1.5%
volumeFilter = true, volumeLength = 20
trendFilter = true, emaLength = 20
cooldownBars = 6 (on 5m chart → 30 minutes)
🔑 ORB Range Settings
Default sweet spot: 0.2% – 0.3%
→ This usually balances enough signals with reduced false breakouts.
High volatility days (CPI, FOMC, big gaps): 0.3% – 0.5%
→ Prevents fake outs.
Low volatility days (tight overnight range, slow open): 0.15% – 0.2%
→ Keeps you from sitting on hands all day.
📌 Filters you already added help you avoid noise
EMA alignment
Volume confirmation
Optional stop/target logic
This means you don’t have to shrink the box to 0.1% — the filters will keep you in higher-probability trades
✅ Why You Might NOT See a Signal
Check box for reason signal to turn it off, updated coloring so that candles are more visable.
ORB Box Too Wide
If the opening range is large, price has to move much further to trigger a clean breakout.
Wide box = fewer signals (but higher quality).
No Clean Break + Hold
Script waits for a candle to break above/below ORB and close strong enough.
A wick poke doesn’t count.
VWAP / EMA Filter Not Aligned
If price breaks but VWAP/EMA trend filter disagrees → no signal.
Keeps you out of fake moves against the trend.
Confirmation Candle Missing (if enabled)
Even if price breaks, the script may want the next bar to confirm direction before signaling.
Cooldown / One-Signal-Per-Break Rule
Some filters prevent back-to-back spam signals.
Only the first clean setup is alerted.
RSI MA Cross + Divergence Signal (V2) Core Logic
RSI + Moving Average
The script calculates a standard RSI (default 14).
It then overlays a moving average (SMA/EMA/WMA, default 9).
When RSI crosses above its MA → bullish momentum.
When RSI crosses below its MA → bearish momentum.
Divergence Filter
Signals are only valid if there’s confirmed divergence:
Bullish divergence: Price makes a lower low, RSI makes a higher low.
Bearish divergence: Price makes a higher high, RSI makes a lower high.
Overbought / Oversold Filter
Optional extra:
Bullish signals only valid if RSI ≤ 30 (oversold).
Bearish signals only valid if RSI ≥ 70 (overbought).
This ensures signals happen in “stretched” conditions.
Risk & Trade Management
Entries taken only when all conditions align.
Exits can be managed with ATR stops, partial take-profits, breakeven moves, and trailing stops (we coded these in the strategy version).
Cooldown, session filters, and daily loss guard to keep risk tight.
🔹 Strengths
✅ High selectivity: Combining RSI cross + divergence + OB/OS means signals are rare but higher quality.
✅ Great at catching reversals: Divergence highlights where price may be running out of steam.
✅ Risk management baked in: ATR stops + partial exits smooth out equity curve.
✅ Works across markets: ES, FX, crypto — anywhere RSI divergences are respected.
✅ Flexible: You can loosen/tighten filters depending on aggressiveness.
🔹 Weaknesses
❌ Lag from pivots: Divergence only confirms after a few bars → you enter late sometimes.
❌ Choppy in ranges: In sideways markets, RSI divergences appear often and whipsaw.
❌ Filters reduce signals: With all filters ON (divergence + OB/OS + trend + session), signals can be very rare — may under-trade.
❌ Not standalone: Needs higher-timeframe context (trend, liquidity pools) to avoid counter-trend entries.
🔹 Best Ways to Trade It
Use Higher Timeframe Bias
Run the strategy on 15m/1H, but only trade in direction of higher timeframe trend (e.g., 4H EMA).
Example: If daily is bullish → only take bullish divergences.
Pair With Structure
Look for signals at key zones: HTF support/resistance, VWAP, or FVGs.
Divergence + RSI cross inside an FVG is a strong entry trigger.
Adjust OB/OS for Volatility
For crypto/FX: use 35/65 instead of 30/70 (markets trend harder).
For ES/S&P: 30/70 works fine.
Risk Management Is King
Use partial exits: take profit at 1R, trail rest.
Size by % of equity (we coded this into the strategy).
Avoid News Spikes
Divergences break down around CPI, NFP, Fed announcements — stay flat.
🔹 When It Shines
Trending markets that make extended pushes → clean divergences.
Reversal zones (oversold → bullish bounce, overbought → bearish fade).
Swing trading (15m–4H) — less noise than 1m/5m scalping.
🔹 When to Avoid
Low volatility chop → lots of false divergences.
During high-impact news → RSI swings wildly.
In strong one-way trends without pullbacks — divergence keeps calling tops/bottoms too early.
✅ Summary:
This is a reversal-focused RSI divergence strategy with strict filters. It’s powerful when combined with higher-timeframe bias + structure confluence, but weak if traded blindly in choppy or news-driven conditions. Best to treat it as a precision entry trigger, not a full system — layer it on top of your FVG/ORB framework for maximum edge.
Bias + VWAP Pullback — v4 (PA + BOS/CHOCH)Simple idea: I identify the trend (bias) from the larger timeframe, and only trade pullbacks to the VWAP/EMA during liquidity (London/New York). When the trend is clear, gold moves strongly, and its pullbacks to the balance lines provide clear opportunities.
Timeframe and Sessions (Cairo Time)
Analysis: H1 to determine the trend.
Implementation: 5m (or 1m if professional).
Trading window:
London Opening: 10:00–12:30
New York Opening: 16:30–19:00
(avoid the rest of the day unless there is exceptional traffic).
Direction determination (BIAS)
On H1:
If the price is above the 200 EMA and the daily VWAP is bullish and the price is above it → uptrend (long-only).
If the price is below the 200 EMA and the daily VWAP is bearish and the price is below it → bearish trend (short-only).
Determine your levels: yesterday's high/low (PDH/PDL) + approximate Asia range (03:00–09:30).
Entry Rules (Setup A: Trend Continuation)
Asia range breakout towards Bias during liquidity window.
Wait for a withdrawal to:
Daily VWAP, or
EMA50 on 5m frame (best if both cross).
Confirmation: Confirmation low/high on 5m (HL buy/LH sell) + clear impulse candle (Body is greater than average of last 10 candles).
Entry:
Buy: When the price returns above VWAP/EMA50 with a confirmation candle close.
Sell: The exact opposite.
Stop Loss (SL): Below/above the last confirmation low/high or ATR(14, 5m) x 1.5 (largest).
Objectives:
TP1 = 1R (Close 50% and move the rest Break-even).
TP2 = 2.5R to 3R or at an important HTF level (PDH/PDL/Bid/Demand Zone).
Entry Rules (Setup B: Reversion to VWAP – “Mean Reversion”)
Use with extreme caution, once daily maximum:
Price deviation from VWAP by more than ~1.5 x ATR(14, 5m) with rejection candles appearing near PDH/PDL.
Reverse entry towards the return of VWAP.
SL small behind rejection top/bottom.
Main target: VWAP. (Don't get greedy — this scenario is for extended periods only.)
News Filtering and Risk Management
Avoid trading 15–30 minutes before/after strong US news (CPI, NFP, FOMC).
Maximum daily loss: 1.5–2% of account balance.
Risk per trade: 0.25–0.5% (if you are learning) or 0.5–1% (if you are experienced).
Do not exceed two consecutive losing trades per day.
Don't chase the market after the opportunity has passed — wait for the next pullback.
Smart Deal Management
After TP1: Move stop to entry point + trail the rest with EMA20 on 5m or ATR Trailing = ATR(14)×1.0.
If the price touches a strong daily level (PDH/PDL) and fails to break, consider taking additional profit.
If VWAP starts to flatten and breaks against the trend on H1, stop trading for the day.
Quick Checklist (Before Entry)
H1 trend is clear and consistent with 200EMA + VWAP.
Penetrating the Asia range towards Bias.
Clean pull to VWAP/EMA50 on 5m.
Confirmation candle and real push.
SL is logical (behind swing/ATR×1.5) and R :R ≥ 1:2.
No red news coming soon.
Example of "ready-made" settings
EMA: 20, 50, 200 on 5m, 200 only on H1.
VWAP: Daily (reset daily).
ATR: 14 on 5m.
Levels: PDH/PDL + Asia Band (03:00–09:30 Cairo).
Gold Notes
Gold is fast and sharp at the open; don't get in early — wait for the draw.
Fakeouts are common before news: it is best to call with the trend after the price returns above/below VWAP.
Don't expect 80% consistent wins every day — the advantage comes from discipline, filtering out bad days, and only withdrawing when you're on the right track.
تعتبر شركة الماسة الألمانية أحد المؤسسات العاملة بالمملكة العربية السعودية ولها تاريخ طويل من الخدمات الكثيرة والمتنوعة التى مازالت تقدمها للكثير من العملاء داخل جميع مدن وأحياء المملكة حيث نقدم أفضل ما لدينا من خلال مجموعة الشركات التالية والتي من خلالها ستتلقي كل ما تحتاج إلية في كل المجال المختلفة فنحن نعمل منذ عام 2015 ولنا سابقات اعمال فى مختلف المجالات الحيوية التى نخدم من خلالها عملائنا ونوفر لهم أرخص الأسعار وبأعلى جودة من الممكن توفرها فى المجالات التالية :-
خدمات تنظيف المنازل والفلل والشقق
خدمات عزل الخزانات تنظيف غسيل صيانة اصلاح
خدمات جلي البلاط والرخام والسيراميك
خدمات نقل العفش عمالة فلبينية مدربة
خدمات مكافحة الحشرات بجدة
كل هذة الخدمات وأكثر نوفرها لكل المتعاقدين بأفضل الطرق مع توفير خطط وبرامج متنوعة لأتمام العمل المسنود إلينا بأفضل وأحدث الطرق الحديثة والعصرية سواء فى شركات النظافة بجدة ومكة المكرمة أو شركات نقل العفش بجدة عمالة فلبينية وباقى الخدمات مثل جلي وتلميع الرخام بمكة وجدة ولا ننسي شركة مكافحة حشرات بجدة التى ساعدت آلاف المواطنين على تنظيف منازلهم من الحشرات بأفضل مبيدات حشرية.
ICT 00:00, 08:30, 09:30 & 13:30 Opens (NY) — Prior-Day HistoryICT 00:00, 08:30, 09:30 & 13:30 Opens (NY)
This is a derivative of ALPHAICTRADER’s open-source script, republished under the MPL-2.0 with clear attribution and documented changes. It plots four New-York–anchored intraday reference levels—0000, 0830, 0930, 1330—as short, right-padded stubs with clean side labels. Use these time anchors (ICT-style midnight + key US windows) to frame bias, volatility pockets, and intraday trade locations.
What’s original in this version (changes)
Right-padded stubs instead of chart-wide rays — each level ends N bars past the latest candle (configurable).
Side labels at the line tip — text-only labels (0000, 0830, 0930, 1330) that sit at the right end of each stub and update every bar.
Optional prior-day history — show Today only or Today + Prior Day; older lines/labels auto-pruned.
Per-anchor controls — Display, Style, Color, Width, and Show Label for each time.
What it plots (and why)
0000 (NY Midnight): daily session anchor for bias/liquidity context.
0830 (NY): macro data window (CPI/NFP/claims) where volatility often concentrates.
0930 (NY): US cash equity market open; opening-drive structure/acceptance tests.
1330 (NY): early-afternoon anchor for continuation vs. fade.
How it works (under the hood)
Session detection: time("1", session, "America/New_York"); first bar flagged via not na(ts) and na(ts ).
Anchor price: open of that first bar per session/day.
Rendering: lines drawn with xloc=bar_index from start bar to bar_index + Right Pad; x2 updates every bar (no extend.right).
Labels: placed at line.get_x2(line) + Label Pad, soft color variant; updated per bar to stay on the tip.
History: arrays keep either today only or today + yesterday and delete anything older immediately.
How to use
Add to any intraday chart (futures/FX/indices). Anchors are always NY-time; TradingView handles DST.
Inputs
00:00 / 08:30 / 09:30 / 13:30 (NY): Display, Line Style, Color, Width, Show Label
Right Edge: Right Pad (bars) · Label Pad (bars)
History: Show Prior Day (History) — off = today only; on = today + yesterday
Suggested pads: Right Pad 2–5 bars; Label Pad 0–2.
These are context anchors, not signals. Combine with your execution model (market structure, liquidity, FVG/OBs, etc.).
Attribution & License (MPL-2.0)
Original work: “ICT NEW YORK MIDNIGHT OPEN AND 8.30 AM OPEN” by ALPHAICTRADER (MPL-2.0).
This derivative: modifications listed above; source published and kept under MPL-2.0 per license terms.
If you distribute a modified version of this Pine file, you must keep MPL-2.0, retain the copyright/licensing header, publish your modified source, and document your changes.
Notes: Pine v5. Minimalist (no day dividers). Educational tool; not financial advice.
Copyright: © ALPHAICTRADER 2022 · © Funk 2025
License: MPL-2.0
🟥 Synthetic 10Y Real Yield (US10Y - Breakeven)This script calculates and plots a synthetic U.S. 10-Year Real Yield by subtracting the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (USGGBE10) from the nominal 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y).
Real yields are a core macro driver for gold, crypto, growth stocks, and bond pricing, and are closely monitored by institutional traders.
The script includes key reference lines:
0% = Below zero = deeply accommodative regime
1.5% = Common threshold used by macro desks to evaluate gold upside breakout conditions
📈 Use this to monitor macro shifts in real-time and front-run capital flows during major CPI, NFP, and Fed events.
Update Frequency: Daily (based on Treasury market data)
Rolling Correlation BTC vs Hedge AssetsRolling Correlation BTC vs Hedge Assets
Overview
This indicator calculates and plots the rolling correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) returns and several key hedge assets:
• XAUUSD (Gold)
• EURUSD (proxy for DXY, U.S. Dollar Index)
• VIX (Volatility Index)
• TLT (20y U.S. Treasury Bonds ETF)
By monitoring these dynamic correlations, traders can identify whether BTC is moving in sync with risk assets or decoupling as a hedge, and adjust their trading strategy accordingly.
How it works
1. Computes returns for BTC and each asset using percentage change.
2. Uses the rolling correlation function (ta.correlation) over a configurable window length (default = 12 bars).
3. Plots each correlation as a separate colored line (Gold = Yellow, EURUSD = Blue, VIX = Red, TLT = Green).
4. Adds threshold levels at +0.3 and -0.3 to help classify correlation regimes.
How to use it
• High positive correlation (> +0.3): BTC is moving together with the asset (risk-on behavior).
• Near zero (-0.3 to +0.3): BTC is showing little to no correlation — neutral/independent moves.
• Negative correlation (< -0.3): BTC is moving in the opposite direction — potential hedge opportunity.
Practical strategies:
• Watch BTC vs VIX: a spike in volatility (VIX ↑) usually coincides with BTC selling pressure.
• Track BTC vs EURUSD: stronger USD often puts downside pressure on BTC.
• Observe BTC vs Gold: during “flight to safety” events, gold rises while BTC weakens.
• Monitor BTC vs TLT: rising yields (falling TLT) often align with BTC weakness.
Inputs
• Window Length (bars): Number of bars used to calculate rolling correlations (default = 12).
• Comparison Timeframe: Default = 5m. Can be changed to align with your intraday or swing trading style.
Notes
• Works best on intraday charts (1m, 5m, 15m) for scalping and short-term setups.
• Use correlations as context, not standalone signals — combine with volume, VWAP, and price action.
• Correlations are dynamic; they can switch regimes quickly during macro events (CPI, NFP, FOMC).
This tool is designed for traders who want to manage risk exposure by monitoring whether BTC is behaving as a risk-on asset or hedge, and to exploit opportunities during decoupling phases.
Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster [BackQuant]Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster
Plain-English overview
This tool projects a cone of plausible future prices by combining two ideas that traders already use intuitively: seasonality and uncertainty. It watches how your market typically behaves around this calendar date, turns that seasonal tendency into a small daily “drift,” then runs many randomized price paths forward to estimate where price could land tomorrow, next week, or a month from now. The result is a probability cone with a clear expected path, plus optional overlays that show how past years tended to move from this point on the calendar. It is a planning tool, not a crystal ball: the goal is to quantify ranges and odds so you can size, place stops, set targets, and time entries with more realism.
What Monte Carlo is and why quants rely on it
• Definition . Monte Carlo simulation is a way to answer “what might happen next?” when there is randomness in the system. Instead of producing a single forecast, it generates thousands of alternate futures by repeatedly sampling random shocks and adding them to a model of how prices evolve.
• Why it is used . Markets are noisy. A single point forecast hides risk. Monte Carlo gives a distribution of outcomes so you can reason in probabilities: the median path, the 68% band, the 95% band, tail risks, and the chance of hitting a specific level within a horizon.
• Core strengths in quant finance .
– Path-dependent questions : “What is the probability we touch a stop before a target?” “What is the expected drawdown on the way to my objective?”
– Pricing and risk : Useful for path-dependent options, Value-at-Risk (VaR), expected shortfall (CVaR), stress paths, and scenario analysis when closed-form formulas are unrealistic.
– Planning under uncertainty : Portfolio construction and rebalancing rules can be tested against a cloud of plausible futures rather than a single guess.
• Why it fits trading workflows . It turns gut feel like “seasonality is supportive here” into quantitative ranges: “median path suggests +X% with a 68% band of ±Y%; stop at Z has only ~16% odds of being tagged in N days.”
How this indicator builds its probability cone
1) Seasonal pattern discovery
The script builds two day-of-year maps as new data arrives:
• A return map where each calendar day stores an exponentially smoothed average of that day’s log return (yesterday→today). The smoothing (90% old, 10% new) behaves like an EWMA, letting older seasons matter while adapting to new information.
• A volatility map that tracks the typical absolute return for the same calendar day.
It calculates the day-of-year carefully (with leap-year adjustment) and indexes into a 365-slot seasonal array so “March 18” is compared with past March 18ths. This becomes the seasonal bias that gently nudges simulations up or down on each forecast day.
2) Choice of randomness engine
You can pick how the future shocks are generated:
• Daily mode uses a Gaussian draw with the seasonal bias as the mean and a volatility that comes from realized returns, scaled down to avoid over-fitting. It relies on the Box–Muller transform internally to turn two uniform random numbers into one normal shock.
• Weekly mode uses bootstrap sampling from the seasonal return history (resampling actual historical daily drifts and then blending in a fraction of the seasonal bias). Bootstrapping is robust when the empirical distribution has asymmetry or fatter tails than a normal distribution.
Both modes seed their random draws deterministically per path and day, which makes plots reproducible bar-to-bar and avoids flickering bands.
3) Volatility scaling to current conditions
Markets do not always live in average volatility. The engine computes a simple volatility factor from ATR(20)/price and scales the simulated shocks up or down within sensible bounds (clamped between 0.5× and 2.0×). When the current regime is quiet, the cone narrows; when ranges expand, the cone widens. This prevents the classic mistake of projecting calm markets into a storm or vice versa.
4) Many futures, summarized by percentiles
The model generates a matrix of price paths (capped at 100 runs for performance inside TradingView), each path stepping forward for your selected horizon. For each forecast day it sorts the simulated prices and pulls key percentiles:
• 5th and 95th → approximate 95% band (outer cone).
• 16th and 84th → approximate 68% band (inner cone).
• 50th → the median or “expected path.”
These are drawn as polylines so you can immediately see central tendency and dispersion.
5) A historical overlay (optional)
Turn on the overlay to sketch a dotted path of what a purely seasonal projection would look like for the next ~30 days using only the return map, no randomness. This is not a forecast; it is a visual reminder of the seasonal drift you are biasing toward.
Inputs you control and how to think about them
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Price Series for Calculation . The source series, typically close.
• Enable Probability Forecasts . Master switch for simulation and drawing.
• Simulation Iterations . Requested number of paths to run. Internally capped at 100 to protect performance, which is generally enough to estimate the percentiles for a trading chart. If you need ultra-smooth bands, shorten the horizon.
• Forecast Days Ahead . The length of the cone. Longer horizons dilute seasonal signal and widen uncertainty.
• Probability Bands . Draw all bands, just 95%, just 68%, or a custom level (display logic remains 68/95 internally; the custom number is for labeling and color choice).
• Pattern Resolution . Daily leans on day-of-year effects like “turn-of-month” or holiday patterns. Weekly biases toward day-of-week tendencies and bootstraps from history.
• Volatility Scaling . On by default so the cone respects today’s range context.
Plotting & UI
• Probability Cone . Plots the outer and inner percentile envelopes.
• Expected Path . Plots the median line through the cone.
• Historical Overlay . Dotted seasonal-only projection for context.
• Band Transparency/Colors . Customize primary (outer) and secondary (inner) band colors and the mean path color. Use higher transparency for cleaner charts.
What appears on your chart
• A cone starting at the most recent bar, fanning outward. The outer lines are the ~95% band; the inner lines are the ~68% band.
• A median path (default blue) running through the center of the cone.
• An info panel on the final historical bar that summarizes simulation count, forecast days, number of seasonal patterns learned, the current day-of-year, expected percentage return to the median, and the approximate 95% half-range in percent.
• Optional historical seasonal path drawn as dotted segments for the next 30 bars.
How to use it in trading
1) Position sizing and stop logic
The cone translates “volatility plus seasonality” into distances.
• Put stops outside the inner band if you want only ~16% odds of a stop-out due to noise before your thesis can play.
• Size positions so that a test of the inner band is survivable and a test of the outer band is rare but acceptable.
• If your target sits inside the 68% band at your horizon, the payoff is likely modest; outside the 68% but inside the 95% can justify “one-good-push” trades; beyond the 95% band is a low-probability flyer—consider scaling plans or optionality.
2) Entry timing with seasonal bias
When the median path slopes up from this calendar date and the cone is relatively narrow, a pullback toward the lower inner band can be a high-quality entry with a tight invalidation. If the median slopes down, fade rallies toward the upper band or step aside if it clashes with your system.
3) Target selection
Project your time horizon to N bars ahead, then pick targets around the median or the opposite inner band depending on your style. You can also anchor dynamic take-profits to the moving median as new bars arrive.
4) Scenario planning & “what-ifs”
Before events, glance at the cone: if the 95% band already spans a huge range, trade smaller, expect whips, and avoid placing stops at obvious band edges. If the cone is unusually tight, consider breakout tactics and be ready to add if volatility expands beyond the inner band with follow-through.
5) Options and vol tactics
• When the cone is tight : Prefer long gamma structures (debit spreads) only if you expect a regime shift; otherwise premium selling may dominate.
• When the cone is wide : Debit structures benefit from range; credit spreads need wider wings or smaller size. Align with your separate IV metrics.
Reading the probability cone like a pro
• Cone slope = seasonal drift. Upward slope means the calendar has historically favored positive drift from this date, downward slope the opposite.
• Cone width = regime volatility. A widening fan tells you that uncertainty grows fast; a narrow cone says the market typically stays contained.
• Mean vs. price gap . If spot trades well above the median path and the upper band, mean-reversion risk is high. If spot presses the lower inner band in an up-sloping cone, you are in the “buy fear” zone.
• Touches and pierces . Touching the inner band is common noise; piercing it with momentum signals potential regime change; the outer band should be rare and often brings snap-backs unless there is a structural catalyst.
Methodological notes (what the code actually does)
• Log returns are used for additivity and better statistical behavior: sim_ret is applied via exp(sim_ret) to evolve price.
• Seasonal arrays are updated online with EWMA (90/10) so the model keeps learning as each bar arrives.
• Leap years are handled; indexing still normalizes into a 365-slot map so the seasonal pattern remains stable.
• Gaussian engine (Daily mode) centers shocks on the seasonal bias with a conservative standard deviation.
• Bootstrap engine (Weekly mode) resamples from observed seasonal returns and adds a fraction of the bias, which captures skew and fat tails better.
• Volatility adjustment multiplies each daily shock by a factor derived from ATR(20)/price, clamped between 0.5 and 2.0 to avoid extreme cones.
• Performance guardrails : simulations are capped at 100 paths; the probability cone uses polylines (no heavy fills) and only draws on the last confirmed bar to keep charts responsive.
• Prerequisite data : at least ~30 seasonal entries are required before the model will draw a cone; otherwise it waits for more history.
Strengths and limitations
• Strengths :
– Probabilistic thinking replaces single-point guessing.
– Seasonality adds a small but meaningful directional bias that many markets exhibit.
– Volatility scaling adapts to the current regime so the cone stays realistic.
• Limitations :
– Seasonality can break around structural changes, policy shifts, or one-off events.
– The number of paths is performance-limited; percentile estimates are good for trading, not for academic precision.
– The model assumes tomorrow’s randomness resembles recent randomness; if regime shifts violently, the cone will lag until the EWMA adapts.
– Holidays and missing sessions can thin the seasonal sample for some assets; be cautious with very short histories.
Tuning guide
• Horizon : 10–20 bars for tactical trades; 30+ for swing planning when you care more about broad ranges than precise targets.
• Iterations : The default 100 is enough for stable 5/16/50/84/95 percentiles. If you crave smoother lines, shorten the horizon or run on higher timeframes.
• Daily vs. Weekly : Daily for equities and crypto where month-end and turn-of-month effects matter; Weekly for futures and FX where day-of-week behavior is strong.
• Volatility scaling : Keep it on. Turn off only when you intentionally want a “pure seasonality” cone unaffected by current turbulence.
Workflow examples
• Swing continuation : Cone slopes up, price pulls into the lower inner band, your system fires. Enter near the band, stop just outside the outer line for the next 3–5 bars, target near the median or the opposite inner band.
• Fade extremes : Cone is flat or down, price gaps to the upper outer band on news, then stalls. Favor mean-reversion toward the median, size small if volatility scaling is elevated.
• Event play : Before CPI or earnings on a proxy index, check cone width. If the inner band is already wide, cut size or prefer options structures that benefit from range.
Good habits
• Pair the cone with your entry engine (breakout, pullback, order flow). Let Monte Carlo do range math; let your system do signal quality.
• Do not anchor blindly to the median; recalc after each bar. When the cone’s slope flips or width jumps, the plan should adapt.
• Validate seasonality for your symbol and timeframe; not every market has strong calendar effects.
Summary
The Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster wraps institutional risk planning into a single overlay: a data-driven seasonal drift, realistic volatility scaling, and a probabilistic cone that answers “where could we be, with what odds?” within your trading horizon. Use it to place stops where randomness is less likely to take you out, to set targets aligned with realistic travel, and to size positions with confidence born from distributions rather than hunches. It will not predict the future, but it will keep your decisions anchored to probabilities—the language markets actually speak.
FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator [BackQuant]FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator
1. Concept and Rationale
The United States Federal Funds Rate is the anchor around which global dollar liquidity and risk-free yield expectations revolve. When the Fed hikes, borrowing costs rise, liquidity tightens and most risk assets encounter head-winds. When it cuts, liquidity expands, speculative appetite often recovers. Bitcoin, a 24-hour permissionless asset sometimes described as “digital gold with venture-capital-like convexity,” is particularly sensitive to macro-liquidity swings.
The FED Divergence Oscillator quantifies the behavioural gap between short-term monetary policy (proxied by the effective Fed Funds Rate) and Bitcoin’s own percentage price change. By converting each series into identical rate-of-change units, subtracting them, then optionally smoothing the result, the script produces a single bounded-yet-dynamic line that tells you, at a glance, whether Bitcoin is outperforming or underperforming the policy backdrop—and by how much.
2. Data Pipeline
• Fed Funds Rate – Pulled directly from the FRED database via the ticker “FRED:FEDFUNDS,” sampled at daily frequency to synchronise with crypto closes.
• Bitcoin Price – By default the script forces a daily timeframe so that both series share time alignment, although you can disable that and plot the oscillator on intraday charts if you prefer.
• User Source Flexibility – The BTC series is not hard-wired; you can select any exchange-specific symbol or even swap BTC for another crypto or risk asset whose interaction with the Fed rate you wish to study.
3. Math under the Hood
(1) Rate of Change (ROC) – Both the Fed rate and BTC close are converted to percent return over a user-chosen lookback (default 30 bars). This means a cut from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent feeds in as –4.76 percent, while a climb from 25 000 to 30 000 USD in BTC over the same window converts to +20 percent.
(2) Divergence Construction – The script subtracts the Fed ROC from the BTC ROC. Positive values show BTC appreciating faster than policy is tightening (or falling slower than the rate is cutting); negative values show the opposite.
(3) Optional Smoothing – Macro series are noisy. Toggle “Apply Smoothing” to calm the line with your preferred moving-average flavour: SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, WMA or Hull. The default EMA-25 removes day-to-day whips while keeping turning points alive.
(4) Dynamic Colour Mapping – Rather than using a single hue, the oscillator line employs a gradient where deep greens represent strong bullish divergence and dark reds flag sharp bearish divergence. This heat-map approach lets you gauge intensity without squinting at numbers.
(5) Threshold Grid – Five horizontal guides create a structured regime map:
• Lower Extreme (–50 pct) and Upper Extreme (+50 pct) identify panic capitulations and euphoria blow-offs.
• Oversold (–20 pct) and Overbought (+20 pct) act as early warning alarms.
• Zero Line demarcates neutral alignment.
4. Chart Furniture and User Interface
• Oscillator fill with a secondary DEMA-30 “shader” offers depth perception: fat ribbons often precede high-volatility macro shifts.
• Optional bar-colouring paints candles green when the oscillator is above zero and red below, handy for visual correlation.
• Background tints when the line breaches extreme zones, making macro inflection weeks pop out in the replay bar.
• Everything—line width, thresholds, colours—can be customised so the indicator blends into any template.
5. Interpretation Guide
Macro Liquidity Pulse
• When the oscillator spends weeks above +20 while the Fed is still raising rates, Bitcoin is signalling liquidity tolerance or an anticipatory pivot view. That condition often marks the embryonic phase of major bull cycles (e.g., March 2020 rebound).
• Sustained prints below –20 while the Fed is already dovish indicate risk aversion or idiosyncratic crypto stress—think exchange scandals or broad flight to safety.
Regime Transition Signals
• Bullish cross through zero after a long sub-zero stint shows Bitcoin regaining upward escape velocity versus policy.
• Bearish cross under zero during a hiking cycle tells you monetary tightening has finally started to bite.
Momentum Exhaustion and Mean-Reversion
• Touches of +50 (or –50) come rarely; they are statistically stretched events. Fade strategies either taking profits or hedging have historically enjoyed positive expectancy.
• Inside-bar candlestick patterns or lower-timeframe bearish engulfings simultaneously with an extreme overbought print make high-probability short scalp setups, especially near weekly resistance. The same logic mirrors for oversold.
Pair Trading / Relative Value
• Combine the oscillator with spreads like BTC versus Nasdaq 100. When both the FED Divergence oscillator and the BTC–NDQ relative-strength line roll south together, the cross-asset confirmation amplifies conviction in a mean-reversion short.
• Swap BTC for miners, altcoins or high-beta equities to test who is the divergence leader.
Event-Driven Tactics
• FOMC days: plot the oscillator on an hourly chart (disable ‘Force Daily TF’). Watch for micro-structural spikes that resolve in the first hour after the statement; rapid flips across zero can front-run post-FOMC swings.
• CPI and NFP prints: extremes reached into the release often mean positioning is one-sided. A reversion toward neutral in the first 24 hours is common.
6. Alerts Suite
Pre-bundled conditions let you automate workflows:
• Bullish / Bearish zero crosses – queue spot or futures entries.
• Standard OB / OS – notify for first contact with actionable zones.
• Extreme OB / OS – prime time to review hedges, take profits or build contrarian swing positions.
7. Parameter Playground
• Shorten ROC Lookback to 14 for tactical traders; lengthen to 90 for macro investors.
• Raise extreme thresholds (for example ±80) when plotting on altcoins that exhibit higher volatility than BTC.
• Try HMA smoothing for responsive yet smooth curves on intraday charts.
• Colour-blind users can easily swap bull and bear palette selections for preferred contrasts.
8. Limitations and Best Practices
• The Fed Funds series is step-wise; it only changes on meeting days. Rapid BTC oscillations in between may dominate the calculation. Keep that perspective when interpreting very high-frequency signals.
• Divergence does not equal causation. Crypto-native catalysts (ETF approvals, hack headlines) can overwhelm macro links temporarily.
• Use in conjunction with classical confirmation tools—order-flow footprints, market-profile ledges, or simple price action to avoid “pure-indicator” traps.
9. Final Thoughts
The FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator distills an entire macro narrative monetary policy versus risk sentiment into a single colourful heartbeat. It will not magically predict every pivot, yet it excels at framing market context, spotting stretches and timing regime changes. Treat it as a strategic compass rather than a tactical sniper scope, combine it with sound risk management and multi-factor confirmation, and you will possess a robust edge anchored in the world’s most influential interest-rate benchmark.
Trade consciously, stay adaptive, and let the policy-price tension guide your roadmap.
Economy RadarEconomy Radar — Key US Macro Indicators Visualized
A handy tool for traders and investors to monitor major US economic data in one chart.
Includes:
Inflation: CPI, PCE, yearly %, expectations
Monetary policy: Fed funds rate, M2 money supply
Labor market: Unemployment, jobless claims, consumer sentiment
Economy & markets: GDP, 10Y yield, US Dollar Index (DXY)
Options:
Toggle indicators on/off
Customizable colors
Tooltips explain each metric (in Russian & English)
Perfect for spotting economic cycles and supporting trading decisions.
Add to your chart and get a clear macro picture instantly!
HL2 Moving Average with BandsThis indicator is designed to assist traders in identifying potential trade entries and exits for S&P 500 (ES) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) futures. It calculates a Simple Moving Average (SMA) based on the HL2 value (average of high and low prices) of the current candle over a user-defined lookback period (default: 200 periods). The indicator plots this SMA as a blue line, providing a smoothed reference for price trends.
Additionally, it includes upper and lower bands calculated as a percentage (default: 0.5%) above and below the SMA, plotted as green and red lines, respectively. These bands act as dynamic thresholds to identify overbought or oversold conditions. The indicator generates trade signals based on price action relative to these bands:
Long Entry: A green upward triangle is plotted below the candle when the close crosses above the upper band, signaling a potential buy.
Close Long: A red square is plotted above the candle when the close crosses back below the upper band, indicating an exit for the long position.
Short Entry: A red downward triangle is plotted above the candle when the close crosses below the lower band, signaling a potential sell.
Close Short: A green square is plotted below the candle when the close crosses back above the lower band, indicating an exit for the short position.
The script is customizable, allowing users to adjust the SMA length and band percentage to suit their trading style or market conditions. It is plotted as an overlay on the price chart for easy integration with other technical analysis tools.
Recommended Time Frame and Settings for Trading S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Futures
Based on research and market dynamics for S&P 500 (ES) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) futures, the 5-minute chart is recommended as the optimal time frame for day trading with this indicator. This time frame strikes a balance between capturing intraday trends and filtering out excessive noise, which is critical for futures trading due to their high volatility and leverage. The 5-minute chart aligns well with periods of high liquidity and volatility, such as the U.S. market open (9:30 AM–11:00 AM EST) and the afternoon session (2:00 PM–4:00 PM EST), when institutional traders are most active.
Why 5-minute? It allows traders to react to short-term price movements while avoiding the rapid fluctuations of 1-minute charts, which can be prone to false signals in choppy markets. It also provides enough data points to make the SMA and bands meaningful without the lag associated with longer time frames like 15-minute or hourly charts.
Recommended Settings
SMA Length: Set to 200 periods. This longer lookback period smooths the HL2 data, reducing noise and providing a reliable trend reference for the 5-minute chart. A 200-period SMA helps identify significant trend shifts without being overly sensitive to minor price fluctuations.
Band Percentage: 0.5% is more suitable for the volatility of ES and NQ futures on a 5-minute chart, as it generates fewer but higher-probability signals. Wider bands (e.g., 1%) may miss short-term opportunities, while narrower bands (e.g., 0.1%) may produce excessive false signals.
Trading Session Recommendations
Futures markets for ES and NQ are open nearly 24 hours (Sunday 6:00 PM EST to Friday 5:00 PM EST, with a daily break from 4:00 PM–5:00 PM EST), but not all hours are equally optimal due to varying liquidity and volatility. The best times to trade with this indicator are:
U.S. Market Open (9:30 AM–11:00 AM EST): This period is characterized by high volume and volatility, driven by the opening of U.S. equity markets and economic data releases (e.g., 8:30 AM EST reports like CPI or GDP). The indicator’s signals are more reliable during this window due to strong order flow and price momentum.
Afternoon Session (2:00 PM–4:00 PM EST): After the lunchtime lull, volume picks up as institutional traders return, and news or FOMC announcements often drive price action. The indicator can capture breakout moves as prices test the upper or lower bands.
Pre-Market (7:30 AM–9:30 AM EST): For traders comfortable with lower liquidity, this period can offer opportunities, especially around 8:30 AM EST economic releases. However, use tighter risk management due to wider spreads and potential volatility spikes.
Additional Tips
Avoid Low-Volume Periods: Steer clear of trading during low-liquidity hours, such as the overnight session (11:00 PM–3:00 AM EST), when spreads widen and price movements can be erratic, leading to false signals from the indicator.
Combine with Other Tools: Enhance the indicator’s effectiveness by pairing it with support/resistance levels, Fibonacci retracements, or volume analysis to confirm signals. For example, a long entry signal above the upper band is stronger if it coincides with a breakout above a key resistance level.
Risk Management: Given the leverage in futures (e.g., Micro E-mini contracts require ~$1,200 margin for ES), use tight stop-losses (e.g., below the lower band for longs or above the upper band for shorts) to manage risk. Aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.
Test Settings: Backtest the indicator on a demo account to optimize the SMA length and band percentage for your specific trading style and risk tolerance. Micro E-mini contracts (MES for S&P 500, MNQ for Nasdaq-100) are ideal for testing due to their lower capital requirements.
Why These Settings and Time Frame?
The 5-minute chart with a 200-period SMA and 0.5% bands is tailored for the volatility and liquidity of ES and NQ futures during peak trading hours. The longer SMA period ensures the indicator captures meaningful trends, while the 0.5% bands are tight enough to signal actionable breakouts but wide enough to avoid excessive whipsaws. Trading during high-volume sessions maximizes the likelihood of valid signals, as institutional participation drives clearer price action.
By focusing on these settings and time frames, traders can leverage the indicator to capitalize on the dynamic price movements of S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures while managing the inherent risks of these markets.
UB Short Signal (10Y Yield Future Spike)"This indicator identifies short opportunities on UB futures based on inverse correlation with 10Y Yield Futures. A macro trading tool to be used with additional confirmations."
🎯 Indicator Strategy
This tool generates sell signals for Ultra Bond (UB) futures when:
The Micro 10-Year Yield Future shows an upward spike (> adjustable threshold)
Trading volume is significant (false signal filter)
Inverse correlation is confirmed (UB falls when 10Y rises)
⚙️ Parameters
Spike Threshold: Sensitivity adjustment (e.g., 0.08% for swing trading)
Minimum Volume: Default 100 (optimized for Micro 10Y contracts)
📊 Recent Backtest
06/15/2024: +0.10% spike → UB dropped -0.3% within 15 minutes
06/18/2024: Valid signal post-CPI release
⚠️ Disclaimer
Analytical tool only – not financial advice
Must be combined with proper risk management
Climax Volume FilterThis script helps filter out volume spikes caused by sudden market events (e.g. CPI, FOMC), which can distort volume-based analysis.
It identifies and optionally smooths or excludes high “climax” candles to provide a clearer view of natural volume trends during pullbacks and consolidations.
Use it to:
• Avoid misreading volume during news events
• Improve your reading of exhaustion vs. continuation
• Support better entry timing during flag or FVG setups
CAPE / Shiller PE Ratio - cristianhkrThe Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE Ratio), also known as the Shiller P/E Ratio, is a long-term valuation measure for stocks. It was developed by Robert Shiller and smooths out earnings fluctuations by using an inflation-adjusted average of the last 10 years of earnings.
This TradingView Pine Script indicator calculates the CAPE Ratio for a specific stock by:
Fetching historical Earnings Per Share (EPS) data using request.earnings().
Adjusting the EPS for inflation by dividing it by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Computing the 10-year (40-quarter) moving average of the inflation-adjusted EPS.
Calculating the CAPE Ratio as (Stock Price) / (10-year Average EPS adjusted for inflation).
Plotting the CAPE Ratio on the chart with a reference line at CAPE = 20, a historically significant threshold.
