BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis [OmegaTools]BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis is a macro-valuation and regime-detection model designed to contextualize Bitcoin’s price through relative market-cap comparisons against major capital reservoirs: Gold, Silver, the Altcoin market, and large-cap equities. Instead of relying on traditional on-chain metrics or purely technical signals, this tool frames BTC as an asset competing for global liquidity and “store-of-value mindshare”, then estimates an implied fair value based on how BTC historically coexists (or diverges) from these benchmark universes.
Core concept: relative market-cap anchoring
The indicator builds a reference-based fair price by translating external market capitalizations into implied BTC valuation using a dominance framework. In practice, you choose one or more reference universes (Gold, Silver, Altcoins, Stocks). For each selected universe, the script computes how large BTC “should be” relative to that universe (dominance ratio), and converts that into an implied BTC price. The final fair price is the average of the implied prices from the enabled universes.
Two dominance modes: automatic vs manual
1. Automatic Dominance % (default)
When enabled, the model estimates dominance ratios dynamically using a 252-period simple moving average of BTC market cap divided by each reference market cap. This produces an adaptive baseline that follows structural changes over time and reduces sensitivity to short-term spikes.
2. Manual Dominance %
If you prefer a discretionary macro thesis, you can directly input dominance parameters for each reference universe. This is useful when you want to stress-test scenarios (e.g., “BTC should converge toward X% of Gold’s market cap”) or align the model with a specific long-term adoption narrative.
Reference universes and data construction
- BTC market cap: pulled from CRYPTOCAP:BTC.
- Gold and Silver market caps: derived from the corresponding futures symbols (GC1!, SI1!) multiplied by an assumed total above-ground quantity (constant tonnage converted to troy ounces). This provides a practical and tradable proxy for spot valuation context.
- Altcoin market cap: pulled from CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 (total crypto market excluding BTC).
- Stocks market cap proxy (Σ3): a deliberately conservative equity benchmark built from three mega-cap stocks (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN) using total shares outstanding (request.financial) multiplied by price. This avoids index licensing complexity while still tracking a meaningful slice of global equity beta/liquidity.
Valuation output: overvalued vs undervalued (log-based)
The valuation readout is expressed as a percentage derived from the logarithmic distance between BTC price and the model’s fair price. This choice makes valuation comparable across long time horizons and reduces distortion during exponential growth phases. A positive valuation indicates BTC trading below the model’s implied value (undervalued), while a negative valuation indicates trading above it (overvalued).
Oscillator: relative momentum and regime confirmation
In addition to fair value, the indicator includes a momentum differential oscillator built from RSI(50):
- BTC RSI is compared to the average RSI of the selected reference universes.
- The oscillator highlights when BTC strength is leading or lagging the broader macro benchmarks.
- Color is rendered through a gradient to provide immediate regime readability (risk-on vs risk-off behavior, expansion vs contraction phases).
Visualization and UI components
- Fair Price overlay: the computed fair price is plotted directly on the BTC chart for immediate comparison with spot price action.
- Valuation shading: the area between price and fair price is filled to visually emphasize dislocation and potential mean-reversion zones.
- Oscillator panel: a zero-centered oscillator with filled bands helps you identify persistent trend regimes versus transitional conditions.
- Summary table: a right-side table displays the current valuation (over/under) and, when Automatic mode is enabled, the live dominance ratios used in the model (BTC/GOLD, BTC/SILVER, BTC/ALTC, BTC/STOCKS).
How to use it (practical workflows)
- Macro valuation context: use fair price as a structural anchor to assess whether BTC is trading at a premium or discount relative to external liquidity baselines.
- Regime filtering: combine valuation with the oscillator to distinguish “cheap but weak” from “cheap and strengthening” (and the inverse for tops).
- Mean-reversion mapping: large, persistent deviations from fair value often highlight speculative extremes or capitulation zones; this can support systematic entries/exits, position sizing, or hedging decisions.
- Scenario analysis: switch to Manual Dominance % to model adoption outcomes, policy-driven shifts, or multi-year re-rating assumptions.
Important notes and limitations (read before use)
- This is a hypothesis-driven macro model, not a literal intrinsic value calculation. Results depend on dominance assumptions, proxies, and data availability.
- Gold/Silver market caps are approximations based on futures pricing and fixed supply constants; real-world supply dynamics, above-ground estimates, and spot/futures basis can differ.
- The Stocks (Σ3) benchmark is a proxy and intentionally not “the whole market”. It is designed to represent a large-cap liquidity reference, not total equity capitalization.
- Always validate signals with additional context (market structure, volatility regime, risk management rules). This indicator is best used as a macro layer in a broader decision framework.
Designed for clarity, macro discipline, and repeatability
BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis by OmegaTools is built for traders and investors who want a clean, data-driven way to interpret BTC through the lens of competing asset classes and capital flows. It is particularly effective on higher timeframes (Daily/Weekly) where macro relationships are more stable and valuation signals are less noisy.
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