BTC Regime • Buy-the-Dip Pro (with Frozen/Manual Levels)

BTC Regime • Buy-the-Dip Pro (with Frozen/Manual Levels)

A practical toolkit to time Bitcoin entries during bull regimes, manage risk, and systematize profit-taking. Works best on BTCUSD (Daily).

1) What this script does

Regime filter: Only take longs when trend is favorable (price above 200-day SMA and above 20-week EMA).

Buy-the-dip zone: Watches the most recent swing high (e.g., 90 days) and draws −15% / −22% / −30% pullback levels.

Levels that don’t drift: Choose Frozen on signal (levels lock at the bar that triggers a Buy) or Manual (pin your own prices).

Context: Seasonality shading (Sep & Q4), halving/ETF markers, BTC dominance bias.

Risk & sizing: ATR-buffered stop suggestion + position size estimate from your account & risk%.

Alerts: One-time dip entry alert (auto-reset on new swing high), Trend Exit, TP1 (prior high), TP2 (extension).

2) Quick installation

Open TradingView → any chart → Pine Editor.

Paste the script code → Save → Add to chart.

Symbol/timeframe: BTCUSD, 1D (daily).

Open the Settings (Inputs) panel and set preferences (see section 4).

3) Visuals on the chart

Aqua line = 200-day SMA.

Teal band = 20-week EMA/SMA band (from weekly data).

Green/Red backgrounds = Bull/Bear regime (bull = price above 200D & 20W EMA).

Horizontal dip lines = your active L1/L2/L3 (−15/−22/−30). In Frozen/Manual they stay aligned while you pan/zoom.

“BUY” triangle = one-time dip entry signal (meets regime + dip + optional RSI + dominance bias).

“EXIT” triangle = trend exit (lose 200D or 20W SMA).

Status panel (label): trend score, dip mode, entry/TP/stop, risk $, and suggested size.

4) Inputs explained (and suggested defaults)

Display

Show 200-day SMA (on)

Show 20-week band (on)

Shade September + Q4 (on)

Mark halvings + ETF (on)

Show status panel (on)

Dip levels mode

Frozen on signal (recommended): when “BUY” triggers, the script locks −15/−22/−30 at that bar.

Dynamic (auto): levels follow the latest swing high (will move as price makes new highs).

Manual: you type exact prices; they render as pinned horizontals.

If Manual mode

Manual Level A/B/C: enter prices for ~−15/−22/−30 (or any you want).

Core logic

Swing-high lookback (days): 90 (use 120 for fewer but deeper dips).

Use RSI(14) filter: off (turn on later to avoid buys when RSI > 70).

TP2 mode: Fib 1.272 (default); alternatives: Fib 1.618 or % above prior high (set 8–15%).

ATR length / multiple: 20 / 2.0 (range 1.5–2.5 works well).

Account size / Risk%: set your real figures; start with 0.5–1.0%.

Altseason bias (optional)

Altseason bias:

Off → ignore dominance.

Favor BTC leadership → require BTC.D rising & >55D MA rising & >55D MA.

Favor Altseason → require BTC.D falling & <55D MA.

BTC Dominance symbol: CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D (default; if unavailable, turn bias Off).

5) Alerts to create (Once per bar close)

BTC Buy-the-Dip (one-time) → entry alert; resets when a new swing high prints.

TP1 hit (prior high) → take partial profits (50–70%) at the old high.

TP2 hit (extension) → exit remainder or switch to a trailing stop.

BTC Trend Exit → exit open positions if 200D or 20W SMA is lost.

Tip: If you ladder entries, set your broker/platform orders when the BUY alert fires (e.g., 40% near −22%, 40% around −25/−26% manual mid, 20% near −30%).

6) Trade plan (repeatable process)

Only trade the bull regime: green background, price above 200D & 20W EMA.

Wait for the dip: buy only inside −15 to −30% from the swing high (or your Manual levels).

Size with risk: panel shows Stop (ATR below 20W/200D), Risk$, Size BTC. Keep per-trade risk ≤ 1%; total open risk ≤ 3%.

Manage winners:

TP1 (prior high): trim 50–70%, move stop to breakeven + 0.5×ATR.

TP2 (Fib/%) : exit remainder or trail (e.g., chandelier or weekly close below 20W SMA).

Obey the exit: “Trend Exit” means flatten the rest.

7) Regime & context rules of thumb

Trend Score ≥ 60 → you have tailwind; ≥ 75 → strong trend.

September (red shade) → scale down size or be more selective.

Q4 (green shade) → if trend is strong, OK to lean in modestly.

Dominance bias (optional) → guardrails for BTC vs alt phases (doesn’t force trades).

8) Examples (how to stage entries)

Three-tier ladder:

40% near L2 (−22%)

40% near mid (~−25/−26%) (add a manual level if you wish)

20% near L3 (−30%)

If only L1 hits and price bounces, you still have a starter with a good stop.

9) Troubleshooting & tips

Lines drifting: Use Frozen on signal or Manual; Dynamic intentionally follows new highs.

No dominance data: Set Altseason bias = Off.

Too many signals: Increase lookback (e.g., 120), enable RSI filter, or require Trend Score ≥ 60 (visual check).

Few fills: Add a mid level manually; widen to −12/−20/−28% if that fits your style.

Script performance: Keep on Daily for clarity and lighter recalcs.

10) Safety & limitations

No system wins every trade. The edge here is: trend selection + patient entries + fixed risk + structured exits.

Always test on a paper account first; confirm your broker/exchange order types.

11) Optional next steps

I can deliver a strategy() backtest version with:

Exact entry/partial/exit logic,

Equity curve, win rate, drawdown,

Input optimization (lookback, ATR multiple, TP2 mode).

Want me to add a trailing stop menu (Chandelier vs. 20-week close) and a mid-dip custom level input out of the box?

Quick checklist (daily)

Regime green? (above 200D & 20W EMA)

Trend Score ≥ 60?

BUY alert fired? Place ladder orders per the panel size & stop.

TP1/TP2/Exit alerts? Execute and log.