IKODO - Trend & Volume Analyzer

IKODO Trend & Volume Analyzer

IMPORTANT: This indicator works ONLY on WEEKLY timeframe. It will display an error on any other timeframe.

OVERVIEW
IKODO Trend & Volume Analyzer is a professional weekly timeframe indicator designed for long-term investors and swing traders. It combines trend analysis (SMA 52), volume-weighted positioning (Anchored VWAP), and momentum assessment (Rubber Band) to identify three critical market states: Overheated zones, Pullback opportunities, and Strong Trend conditions. The indicator automatically colors candles and displays labels based on current market state.

This indicator is specifically built for weekly analysis to filter out short-term noise and focus on major market cycles. The 52-week SMA represents one full year of price action, making it ideal for identifying long-term support and resistance levels.

HOW IT WORKS
The indicator uses three core components to analyze market conditions:

1. SMA 52 (Trend Line):
- 52-week Simple Moving Average
- Represents the average price over one full year
- Acts as dynamic support in uptrends
- Blue line on chart
- Primary trend indicator

2. Anchored VWAP (Cost Basis):
- Volume-Weighted Average Price from January 1, 2000
- Simulates Average Volume Profile Point of Control
- Represents collective market cost basis
- Orange line on chart
- Shows institutional accumulation levels

3. Rubber Band (Momentum):
- Measures price distance from SMA 52 as percentage
- Identifies overextension (overbought conditions)
- Formula: (Close - SMA52) / SMA52 * 100
- Triggers warnings when threshold exceeded

Market State Detection:

State 1: Overheated ( Red)
- Price extended > 15% above SMA 52 (default)
- High risk zone - profit taking recommended
- Pullback or correction likely
- Not a short signal, but caution advised
- Red candles + Warning label

State 2: Pullback (Orange)
- Price above SMA 52 but declining
- No overheating present
- Potential buying opportunity near support
- Wait for support confirmation
- Orange candles + Pullback label

State 3: Strong Trend (Green)
- Price above both SMA 52 and Anchored VWAP
- No overheating
- Safe to hold or add to positions
- Momentum positive
- Green candles + Strong Trend label

Support Zone (Blue Fill):
- Area between SMA 52 and Anchored VWAP
- Ideal accumulation zone during pullbacks
- Price holding above this zone = strong bullish structure
- Break below = trend weakening

KEY FEATURES
Technical Analysis:
- 52-week SMA for yearly trend analysis
- Anchored VWAP from 2000 for long-term cost basis
- Rubber Band calculation for overextension detection
- Three-state market condition system
- Automatic candle coloring by market state

Visual Features:
- Blue SMA 52 trend line
- Orange Anchored VWAP line
- Blue-filled support zone between lines
- Color-coded candles (Red/Orange/Green/Gray)
- Dynamic labels showing current state
- Overheating percentage display
- Clean, professional appearance

Timeframe Protection:
- Hard-coded weekly-only restriction
- Prevents misuse on inappropriate timeframes
- Error message on non-weekly charts
- Ensures proper analysis context

Alerts:
- Overheated state alert
- Pullback state alert
- Strong trend state alert

SETTINGS
Trend Settings:
- SMA Length (default: 52): Number of weeks for moving average. 52 = one full year
- Overheating Threshold (default: 15%): Percentage above SMA to trigger warning. Range: 5-30%

VWAP Settings:
- Anchor Year (default: 2000): Starting year for VWAP calculation
- Anchor Month (default: 1): Starting month
- Anchor Day (default: 1): Starting day

Note: Settings are intentionally minimal to maintain strategy integrity. The 52-week period is optimized for long-term analysis and should not be changed without understanding the implications.

HOW TO USE
CRITICAL: Switch your chart to WEEKLY timeframe before adding this indicator.

Setup Instructions:
1. Open TradingView chart
2. Switch timeframe to "1W" (Weekly)
3. Add "IKODO Trend & Volume Analyzer" indicator
4. Indicator will load with default settings
5. Optionally adjust Overheating Threshold (default 15% recommended)

Reading the Indicator:

Green Candles (Strong Trend):
- Action: HOLD existing positions or ADD
- Interpretation: Healthy uptrend with momentum
- Risk: Low
- Strategy: Ride the trend, use trailing stops

Orange Candles (Pullback):
- Action: WAIT for support or BUY near SMA 52
- Interpretation: Temporary weakness in uptrend
- Risk: Medium
- Strategy: Prepare to buy dips near blue zone

Red Candles (Overheated):
- Action: TAKE PROFITS or reduce position size
- Interpretation: Price overextended, correction likely
- Risk: High
- Strategy: Secure gains, wait for better entry

Gray Candles (Neutral/Below Trend):
- Action: AVOID or EXIT positions
- Interpretation: No clear uptrend, below SMA 52
- Risk: High
- Strategy: Stay in cash, wait for trend resumption

Trading Strategies:

1. Long-Term Investor Strategy:
- Buy: Green or Orange candles near SMA 52
- Hold: All green candles
- Reduce: Red candles (overheated)
- Exit: Gray candles (trend broken)
- Timeframe: Hold for months to years

2. Swing Trader Strategy:
- Entry: Orange candles bouncing off SMA 52
- Add: Green candles after pullback
- Partial Exit: First red candle appearance
- Full Exit: Second consecutive red candle
- Timeframe: Hold for weeks to months

3. Conservative Approach:
- Only buy: Orange candles with SMA 52 support
- Only hold: Green candles
- Always exit: Red candles
- Stay out: Gray candles
- Risk: Minimal, returns: moderate

Support Zone Strategy:
- Blue filled area = "Buy Zone"
- Price enters blue zone during pullback = strong buy signal
- Price stays above blue zone = bullish structure intact
- Price closes below blue zone = warning, possible trend change
- Deeper into blue zone = better risk/reward

Label Interpretation:
- "Overheated": Shows distance % above SMA. Higher % = more risk
- "Pullback": Waiting for support test, prepare to buy
- "Strong Trend": Safe to hold, momentum positive

RECOMMENDED ASSETS
Best For:
- Major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH)
- Stock indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA)
- Large-cap stocks (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL)
- Liquid forex pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD)
- Commodities (GOLD, SILVER, OIL)

Not Recommended For:
- Low-volume altcoins
- Penny stocks
- Highly volatile leveraged ETFs
- Assets with < 2 years of history
- Assets with irregular trading (gaps)

BEST PRACTICES
1. Weekly Timeframe Only: Never use on daily or lower timeframes
2. Long-Term Perspective: This is not a day trading tool
3. Combine with Fundamentals: Use for timing, not stock selection
4. Respect the Trend: Don't short green or buy gray
5. Risk Management: Always use stop losses below SMA 52
6. Position Sizing: Reduce size on red candles, increase on green
7. Patience: Wait for proper setups, don't force trades
8. Volume Matters: Confirm signals with volume analysis
9. Context: Consider broader market conditions
10. Backtest: Test on your specific assets before live trading

LIMITATIONS
Timeframe Restrictions:
- ONLY works on weekly timeframe
- Will error on any other timeframe
- Cannot be used for intraday analysis
- Signals update once per week (Sunday close)

Indicator Limitations:
- Lagging indicator (uses moving averages)
- May miss quick reversals within the week
- Anchored VWAP starts from 2000 (older data = more stable, less responsive)
- Static overheating threshold (not adaptive to volatility)
- No volume confirmation built in
- Labels only show on last bar (historical states not visible)
- Does not predict, only describes current state

Market Limitations:
- Less effective in ranging/sideways markets
- Strong trends may stay "overheated" for extended periods
- Pullbacks don't always reach SMA 52
- Black swan events can invalidate analysis
- Works best in bull markets with clear trends
- Bear markets may show constant gray candles

Technical Limitations:
- Requires sufficient data (minimum 52 weeks history)
- Anchored VWAP calculation is cumulative (slow on large datasets)
- Single timeframe view (cannot display multi-TF analysis)

ORIGINALITY
This indicator combines classic technical analysis principles with modern volume analysis in a unique implementation:

Unique Features:
- Weekly-only enforcement prevents misuse
- Three-state classification system (not binary signals)
- Anchored VWAP from 2000 as institutional cost basis proxy
- Rubber Band methodology for overheating detection
- Support zone visualization between SMA and VWAP
- Automatic candle coloring by market state

Methodology:
The 52-week SMA represents one full year of price action, a complete business cycle. By anchoring VWAP from 2000, we capture two decades of institutional cost basis, providing a long-term value reference. The "Rubber Band" concept measures how far price can stretch from trend before snapping back, similar to mechanical tension.

While SMA 52 and VWAP individually are common tools, this specific combination with weekly-only enforcement, three-state logic, and visual integration creates a unique analytical framework optimized for long-term position management.

DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Overheated conditions can persist for months. Trends can reverse without warning. Always use proper risk management, employ stop losses, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and do your own research (DYOR). Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

RISK MANAGEMENT
- Always use stop losses below SMA 52 (at least)
- Risk no more than 1-2% of portfolio per position
- Reduce position size in red (overheated) zones
- Never go all-in on any single signal
- Diversify across multiple assets and timeframes
- Red candles mean REDUCE, not necessarily SELL ALL
- Gray candles mean EXIT, trend is broken
- Green candles are safest, but not risk-free

MARKET CONDITIONS
Works Best In:
- Strong, sustained uptrends (months to years)
- Markets with clear weekly structure
- Assets with consistent volume
- Bull markets with healthy pullbacks
- Trending commodities and indices

Works Poorly In:
- Choppy, range-bound markets
- Extreme volatility (crypto bear markets)
- Low liquidity assets
- Assets with frequent gaps
- Markets dominated by news events
- Sideways consolidation patterns

VERSION HISTORY
v1.0 - January 21, 2026
- Initial release
- Weekly timeframe restriction
- 52-week SMA trend analysis
- Anchored VWAP from 2000
- Rubber Band overheating detection
- Three-state market classification
- Automatic candle coloring
- Dynamic label system
- Support zone visualization
- Alert system for state changes

NOTES
- Indicator name includes "IKODO" branding as author signature
- The 52-week period is non-negotiable for proper long-term analysis
- Anchored VWAP start date (2000) provides 20+ years of institutional data
- Default 15% overheating threshold is based on historical analysis
- This is a TREND-FOLLOWING tool, not a reversal indicator
- Works best when combined with fundamental analysis
- Not suitable for scalping or day trading
- Signals update once per week only

WEEKLY TIMEFRAME IMPORTANCE
Why Weekly Only?
- Filters out daily noise and false signals
- Captures major market cycles
- Reduces emotional trading decisions
- Aligns with long-term investment horizons
- 52 weeks = 1 full year of business data
- Institutional players focus on weekly charts
- More reliable signals, less whipsaw
- Better risk/reward on longer timeframes

If you find this indicator useful for your long-term analysis, please leave a like and comment! Share your weekly chart setups and results.