Kioseff Trading - AI-Optimized Supertrend

14 gru 2022

AI-Optimized Supertrend

Introducing AI-Optimized Supertrend: a streamlined solution for traders of any skill level seeking to rapidly test and optimize Supertrend. Capable of analyzing thousands of strategies, this tool cuts through the complexity to identify the most profitable, reliable, or efficient approaches.

Paired with TradingView's native backtesting capabilities, the AI-Optimized Supertrend learns from historical performance data. Set up is easy for all skill levels, and it makes fine-tuning trading alerts and Supertrend straightforward.

Features

• Rapid Supertrend Strategy Testing: Quickly evaluate thousands of Supertrend strategies to find the most effective ones.
  
• AI-Assisted Optimization: Leverage AI recommendations to fine-tune strategies for superior results.
  
• Multi-Objective Optimization: Prioritize Supertrend based on your preference for the highest win rate, maximum profit, or efficiency.
  
• Comprehensive Analytics: The strategy script provides an array of statistics such as profit factor, PnL, win rate, trade counts, max drawdown, and an equity curve to gauge performance accurately.
  
• Alerts Setup: Conveniently set up alerts to be notified about critical trade signals or changes in performance metrics.
  
• Versatile Stop Strategies: Experiment with profit targets, trailing stops, and fixed stop losses.
  
• Binary Supertrend Exploration: Test binary Supertrend strategies.
  
• Limit Orders: Analyze the impact of limit orders on your trading strategy.
  
• Integration with External Indicators: Enhance strategy refinement by incorporating custom or publicly available indicators from TradingView into the optimization process.
  

Key Settings



The image above shows explanations for a list of key settings for the optimizer.

• Set the Factor Range Limits: The AI suggests optimal upper and lower limits for the Factor range, defining the sensitivity of the Supertrend to price fluctuations. A wider range tests a greater variety, while a narrower range focuses on fine-tuning.
  
• Adjust the ATR Range: Use the AI's recommendations to establish the upper and lower bounds for the Average True Range (ATR), which influences the Supertrend's volatility threshold.
  
• ATR Flip: This option lets you interchange the order of ATR and Factor values to quicky test different sequences, giving you the flexibility to explore various combinations and their impact on the Supertrend indicator's performance.
  
• Strategies Evaluated: Adjust this setting to determine how many Supertrend strategies you want to assess and compare.
  
• Enable AI Mode: Turn this feature on to allow the AI to determine and employ the optimal Supertrend strategy with the desired performance metric, such as the highest win rate or maximum profitability.
  
• Target Metric: Adjust this to direct the AI towards optimizing for maximum profit, top win rates, or the most efficient profits.
  
• AI Mode Aggressiveness: Set how assertively the AI pursues the chosen performance goal, such as highest profit or win rate.
  
• Strategy Direction: Choose to focus the AI's testing and optimization on either long or short Supertrend strategies.
  
• Stop Loss Type: Specify the stop loss approach for optimization—fixed value, a trailing stop, or Supertrend direction changes.
  
• Limit Order: Decide if you want to execute trades using limit orders for setting your profit targets, stop losses, or apply them to both.
  
• Profit Target: Define your desired profit level when using either a fixed stop loss or a trailing stop.
  
• Stop Loss: Define your desired stop loss when using either a fixed stop loss or a trailing stop.
  

How to: Find the best Supertrend for trading

It's important to remember that merely having the AI-Optimized Supertrend on your chart doesn't automatically provide you with the best strategy. You need to follow the AI's guidance through an iterative process to discover the optimal Supertrend settings and strategy.

Optimizing Supertrend involves adjusting two key parameters: the Factor and the Average True Range (ATR). These parameters significantly influence the Supertrend indicator's sensitivity and responsiveness to price movements.

Factor: This parameter multiplies the ATR to determine the distance of the Supertrend line from the price. Higher values will create a wider band, potentially leading to fewer trade signals, while lower values create a narrower band, which may result in more signals but also more noise.

ATR (Average True Range): ATR measures market volatility. By using the ATR, the Supertrend adapts to changing market volatility; a higher ATR value means a more volatile market, so the Supertrend adjusts accordingly.

During the optimization process, these parameters are systematically varied to determine the combination that yields the best performance based on predefined criteria such as profitability, win rate, or risk management efficiency. The optimization aims to find the optimal Factor and ATR settings.

1.Starting Your Strategy Setup

Begin by deciding your goals for each trade: your profit target and stop loss, or if all trades exit when Supertrend changes direction. You'll also choose how to manage your stops – whether they stay put (fixed) or move with the price (trailing), and whether you want to exit trades at a specific price (limit orders). Keep the initial settings for Supertrend Factor Range and Supertrend ATR Range at their default to give the tool a broad testing field. The AI's guidance will refine these settings to pinpoint the most effective ones through a process of comprehensive testing.

Demonstration Start: We'll begin with the settings outlined in the key settings section, using Supertrend's direction change to the downside as our exit signal for all trades.



2. Continue applying the AI’s suggestions



Keep updating your optimization settings based on the AI's recommendations. Proceed with this iterative optimization until the "Best Found" message is displayed, signaling that the most effective strategy has been identified.



While following the AI's suggestions, we've been prompted with a new suggestion: increase the
number of strategies evaluated. Keep following the AI's new suggestions to evaluate more strategies. Do this until the "Best Found" message shows up.



Success! We continued to follow the AI’s suggestions until “Best Found” was indicated!

AI Mode

AI Mode incorporates Heuristic-Based Adaptive Learning to fine-tune trading strategies in a continuous manner. This feature consists of two main components:

Heuristic-Based Decision Making: The algorithm evaluates multiple Supertrend-based trading strategies using metrics such as Profit and Loss (PNL), Win Rate, and Most Efficient Profit. These metrics act as heuristics to assist the algorithm in identifying suitable strategies for trade execution.

Online Learning: The algorithm updates the performance evaluations of each strategy based on incoming market data. This enables the system to adapt to current market conditions.

Incorporating both heuristic-based decision-making and online learning, this feature aims to provide a framework for trading strategy optimization.

AI Mode Settings

AI Mode Aggressiveness:
Description: The "AI Mode Aggressiveness" setting allows you to fine-tune the AI's trading behavior. This setting ranges from “Low” to “High”, with “High” indicating a more assertive trading approach.

Functionality: This feature filters trading strategies based on a proprietary evaluation method. A higher setting narrows down the strategies that the AI will consider, leaning towards more aggressive trading. Conversely, a lower setting allows for a more conservative approach by broadening the pool of potential strategies.

Optimization

Trading system optimization is immensely advantageous when executed with prudence.
Technical-oriented, mechanical trading systems work when a valid correlation is methodical to the extent that an objective, precisely-defined ruleset can consistently exploit it. If no such correlation exists, or a technical-oriented system is erroneously designed to exploit an illusory correlation (absent predictive utility), the trading system will fail.

Evaluate results practically and test parameters rigorously after discovery. Simply mining the best-performing parameters and immediately trading them is unlikely a winning strategy. Put as much effort into testing strong-performing parameters and building an accompanying system as you would any other trading strategy. Automated optimization involves curve fitting - it's the responsibility of the trader to validate a replicable sequence or correlation and the trading system that exploits it.

31 gru 2023

Informacje o Wersji

Version 1.001: Alerts bug fix