SPX Realized Volatility & Expected Move

Realized Volatility & Expected Move Dashboard
This indicator provides a sophisticated, multi-horizon view of an asset's historical volatility and projects the corresponding expected move (EM) in price points. Unlike indicators that rely on implied volatility (VIX), this tool uses the asset's own historical price action (Realized Volatility) to forecast future range potential.

Key Features & Calculations
Multi-Horizon Realized Volatility (RV): Calculates the annualized Realized Volatility based on log returns for three critical lookback periods:
30 Days (Long-Term): Measures structural volatility (default lookback).
9 Days (Short-Term): Captures recent market temperament.
1 Day (Immediate): Highly reactive to the previous day's movement.
Daily Timeframe Independence (Critical): The RV calculation is performed exclusively on Daily price data (via request.security), ensuring that the 30-day lookback is always 30 calendar days, regardless of whether you view the indicator on a 1-minute or 4-hour chart.

Expected Move Projection: Projects the calculated RV onto the price using the standard financial formula:
$$\text{EM}_{\text{H}} = \text{Price} \times \frac{\text{RV}_{\text{Annual}}}{100} \times \sqrt{\frac{\text{Horizon Days}}{252}}$$

Visual Bands: Plots the Upper and Lower Expected Move bands centered around the current price for all three horizons, providing clear targets for range expansion or contraction.
Comprehensive Table Output: A dashboard summarizes the key metrics, displaying:
Realized Vol (Annualized %): The raw volatility percentage.
Full Horizon Expected Move: The calculated price point move over the full 30-day, 9-day, or 1-day horizon.
Daily Equivalent Expected Move: The daily expected move derived from that RV, making it the most useful target for intraday trading (e.g., the $\pm 1\sigma$ move for today).
Interpretation & Usage

Identify Regime Changes: Compare the short-term RV (9D) against the long-term RV (30D). If 9D > 30D, volatility is accelerating; if 9D < 30D, volatility is contracting.
Set Intraday Targets: Use the 1 Day EM or the Daily Equivalent EM derived from the 9D/30D bands as dynamic support and resistance levels for the trading session.
Analyze Over-Extension: If the price trades outside the 30 Day EM bands, the move is historically extreme and may signal a sharp reversal or momentum exhaustion.