Deadlock in the US, gloomy oil demand, important data ahead

14 sie 2020

In terms of news, yesterday cannot be called a busy day. Plus, the news that came out was somewhat contradictory. For example, statistics on jobless claims in the United States came out better than forecasted: the number of initial jobless claims for the first time in several months came out below 1 million, and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits on a permanent basis fell to 15.5 million. But, on the other hand, Republicans with Democrats continue to be in a deadlock regarding the new stimulus package for the US economy.

Or, for example, US oil stocks are declining, which is a positive signal for oil, but the International Energy Agency is reducing its estimates of global oil demand for almost every quarter until the end of 2021. And this in turn is a reason for oil sales. Our position on oil in the current realities: any asset growth should be used as an opportunity to sell.

So far, the day started with a negative news: industrial production in China increased, but at a slower pace than expected by experts. But more importantly, retail sales reduced again. Thus, the Chinese economy still cannot fully recover from the pandemic.

In this light, today's data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States will be of increased interest. If the data comes out better than forecasted, then the dollar has a chance for recovery, otherwise a re-test of local minimums seems inevitable.