TLT - looking for a top

16 wrz 2011

Bonds (20 year bonds in this ETF) are vulnerable only because this has been such a significant advance. So it is wise to look for trouble or a reason to continue holding such an investment with such a 'low expected return.' I am simply attempting to find the time when it makes sense to go short this market. I am NOT, by any means, a "technical only" trader as my nick-name "Technical Tim" may imply, but I believe it is important to know where the market has been as that may give us at least a clue as to where a market will run into trouble. I noted the "lower high" with a green down-arrow. There are other signs of trouble, the lower-high made 4 day's ago, for example. A great trade will set up soon whereby big money will go short the US Bond market and long foreign bonds. Stay in touch and let's hope we find a low-risk trade setup in TLT.