4/19 Watchlist + Notes

18 kwi 2023

SPY - Completely on target today with yesterday's prediction. Wanted to see a push higher today which came premarket testing the 415 area and even testing the mid 416 area before dropping hard at open, and ending the day around the middle of the day's whole range to form a failed 2U. Normally with this I am looking to see if we got a 50% retrace of yesterday's range after breaking the high of yesterday, but it barely stayed above that point so the 50% rule does not apply here. With that being said, we are nearing the top of a broadening formation on the daily as seen in the picture on this post. Because of that, and the fact that we formed a failed 2U today, I will be watching for a break of today's low to send us down to the 411 level since that break of today's low causes a 2-2 daily reversal, and sets us up to possibly create a compound engulfing candle on the daily. All of this makes sense since we are nearing the top of the BF range, however this is all invalidated if we break above today's high first instead. Overall I am leaning bearish for tomorrow, but we must remember that we still have plenty of room to the upside for weekly and daily level testing as we create this sort of cup and handle on the daily.

Challenge account update + Watchlist:
Account Value: $50.00 (+/- $0.00), still no trades today sadly

RBLX - Active 2-2 reversal daily: Slightly Bullish
CSCO - 50% rule- Bearish
U - 50% rule - Bearish
T - 2-1 Daily - In a BF as well. Looking for downside expansion

Main Watch
U - Has good potential to make a compound engulfing on the daily as long as we break LOD from today. I would have rather chosen T for this main watch, but the overall range of the trade I would take on T is significantly smaller than the range for the trade on U, which means less gains to be made if we are correct in our analysis. All are valid setups, but U has the most room to move tomorrow, which is why I chose it vs the others. Besides just the bias and plan for tomorrow, U has an active weekly 50% rule setup playing out, which givesus a weekly entry and a weekly target meaning this trade can potentially be much larger than just tomorrow's move if we swing and all goes well. Tomorrow's targets are: 28.88, 28.54, and 28.16. Weekly targets set at 27.58 and 27.36

Yesterday's main watch:
ARKK - Loser even though we hit targets. Gapped up with the markets during PM and created that compound engulfing candle we wanted. No valid entry though so this one is a loser on the books

Watchlist stats:
2/2 Spy Predictions
1/3 Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: TSLA - 15%

Personal Stats:
2/2 On The Week
Overall Green
No trades for the challenge account
- Scalped SPY calls today at about 12 PM Est. off of the 5 minute 2-1 Breakout to the upside along with the 15 min 3-1 reversal that broke to the upside

Best of luck tomorrow, lots of tension in the markets going into the 2nd half of the week.