QQQ Stochastic Phase Plane
Zaktualizowano
This chart maps out the territories QQQ will trade in, I use stochastic analysis. I've included the results of the previous moves to show how accurate this method is. For a high level description:
- the colored funnel extending from a peak or valley is the local territory price will trade in
- the trajectories of the same color of a territory are the expected paths that create the territory, the circles are the highest probability levels price is expected to trade in a a given time (you can see these hit exactly on numerous occasions)
- the boxes are target ranges for the respective move (color coded), thick boxes are target range 2. Target range 1 is always the expected scenario, with target range 2 being a lower probability scenario
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QQQ has just made a legitimate breakout above 366 and is trading with respect to the parallel blue channel. Notice in the previous move price stays within channel, which is common except for big breakouts or breakdowns.
Most Bullish Case: 408 by 1/2/2024
Conservative Bullish Case: 408 by 2/23/2024
** In both bullish cases QQQ needs to trade above or inside the blue parallel channel - a break below that channel opens the door for a crash setup to 324 minimum
These bullish cases still allow for a near-term pullback
Minimum pullback: test of the upper blue channel for support
MOST LIKELY PULLBACK: to a confluence target of 369 by 11/30/2023 (4-5% drop)
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After this pullback there are 2 scenarios:
1) Continue higher to 400s in 2024
2) Bounce to make lower high and then drop to at least 340s in early 2024 (this is the expected scenario)
The stock market is a stochastic process, so I'll share updates when necessary.
- the colored funnel extending from a peak or valley is the local territory price will trade in
- the trajectories of the same color of a territory are the expected paths that create the territory, the circles are the highest probability levels price is expected to trade in a a given time (you can see these hit exactly on numerous occasions)
- the boxes are target ranges for the respective move (color coded), thick boxes are target range 2. Target range 1 is always the expected scenario, with target range 2 being a lower probability scenario
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ has just made a legitimate breakout above 366 and is trading with respect to the parallel blue channel. Notice in the previous move price stays within channel, which is common except for big breakouts or breakdowns.
Most Bullish Case: 408 by 1/2/2024
Conservative Bullish Case: 408 by 2/23/2024
** In both bullish cases QQQ needs to trade above or inside the blue parallel channel - a break below that channel opens the door for a crash setup to 324 minimum
These bullish cases still allow for a near-term pullback
Minimum pullback: test of the upper blue channel for support
MOST LIKELY PULLBACK: to a confluence target of 369 by 11/30/2023 (4-5% drop)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After this pullback there are 2 scenarios:
1) Continue higher to 400s in 2024
2) Bounce to make lower high and then drop to at least 340s in early 2024 (this is the expected scenario)
The stock market is a stochastic process, so I'll share updates when necessary.
Uwaga
The "most bullish case" scenario that I laid out (408 by Jan 2024) is playing out and will likely hit early.Uwaga
When I posted this in mid November, I stated the most bullish scenario would give us a target of 408 on 1/2/2024. We are trading at 409 going into 1/2. You're welcome.Uwaga
Final destination is 439.43
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