Litecoin. Why I think Litecoin is going to ZERO.
Zaktualizowano
Let me make simple maths.
First, the facts.
1- Hashed public ledgers have existed since the 70s. Blockchain still is almost not used anywhere at all except to sell drugs and pedoporn on the internet. We know that technologies since ever have been taking 5-10 years to get adopted widely (television cars etc whatever), with a few exceptions. I do not think anything ever took 50 years. That's basically a generation, the people that know about it do not adopt it their entire lives lol and 50 years later it is a new generation that arrives and starts again from scratch.
Let us call X the probability blockchain gets adopted. I believe X is pretty low because blockchain is inneficient expensive dirty and that 50 years thing... But let's stick to X.
2- Even if blockchain survives, that does not mean cryptocurrencies will. No reason they do. We call Y the probability some crypto survive.
3- If crypto currencies survive, why would LTC? It is a copy paste of another product, that is supposed to be "faster" but Bitcoin can get redevelopped or whatever and there are many many other crypto that Litecoin that do its job better. It is neither the first one, the people favorite one, the fastest one, the one that is nit the best at 1 single thing but best overall, it has nothing placing it above dozens of better crypto's.
We call Z the probability Litecoin survives.
4- And we call OHCRAP the probability that cryptocurrencies do not get banned by most governments. Oh and the fun way this works is even if the probability to get banned is tiny it will eventually happen because every few years a new government arrives and the question is raised once again. If you roll a dice enough times...
Now for Litecoin NOT to go to zero we need to see:
* Someone finally finds a use for blockchain.
* Current form of cryptocurrencies survive.
* The thousands of different crypto's cannot become widely adopted... No matter what. Don't have to explain that one.
* We must avoid major governments bans every time a new government is elected. The more disruptive they get to the economy and taxes, the more likely they are to get banned. A ban WILL stop crypto. They don't let you bring your parent basement to jail.
So the probability for Litecoin to NOT go to zero is == X * Y * Z * OHCRAP.
We can put example values.
Let's try the delusional approach.
1/ Blockchain is so awesome wow. 80% chance we have flying (tesla) cars and all use blockchain in 25 years. No "new blockchain v2.0" that means actual crypto's are abandonned since the basis changed and we got something new and smarter.
2/ Crypto does not evolve in a major way, we keep it as it is with small improvements like lightning of course. They don't work very well but some very motivated people manage to bring the spaghetti code to something that works. 80% chance that everything stay the same and some of today's crypto stay. No new improved revolutionary crypto v2.0 (next FAD) that gets people all excited.
3/ There are several crypto that are faster cheaper than Litecoin, and bigger names too. and more uses. But the name of Litecoin and the fact it has been around for a few years really convince people. A super optimist would give a 75% probability of that happening and that seems too high...
4/ Hahaha. Ok every new elected government... In south korea crypto's have been a huge problem, China even. Let's say we are believers and give an 80% chance they won't get banned.
What does this give us in total???
Roll the drums. An optimistic approach would give Litecoin a :
0.8x0.8x0.75x0.8 = 0.384 = 38.4% chance Litecoin survives if we are optimistic about every link in the chain.
Pessimistic numbers in update:
First, the facts.
1- Hashed public ledgers have existed since the 70s. Blockchain still is almost not used anywhere at all except to sell drugs and pedoporn on the internet. We know that technologies since ever have been taking 5-10 years to get adopted widely (television cars etc whatever), with a few exceptions. I do not think anything ever took 50 years. That's basically a generation, the people that know about it do not adopt it their entire lives lol and 50 years later it is a new generation that arrives and starts again from scratch.
Let us call X the probability blockchain gets adopted. I believe X is pretty low because blockchain is inneficient expensive dirty and that 50 years thing... But let's stick to X.
2- Even if blockchain survives, that does not mean cryptocurrencies will. No reason they do. We call Y the probability some crypto survive.
3- If crypto currencies survive, why would LTC? It is a copy paste of another product, that is supposed to be "faster" but Bitcoin can get redevelopped or whatever and there are many many other crypto that Litecoin that do its job better. It is neither the first one, the people favorite one, the fastest one, the one that is nit the best at 1 single thing but best overall, it has nothing placing it above dozens of better crypto's.
We call Z the probability Litecoin survives.
4- And we call OHCRAP the probability that cryptocurrencies do not get banned by most governments. Oh and the fun way this works is even if the probability to get banned is tiny it will eventually happen because every few years a new government arrives and the question is raised once again. If you roll a dice enough times...
Now for Litecoin NOT to go to zero we need to see:
* Someone finally finds a use for blockchain.
* Current form of cryptocurrencies survive.
* The thousands of different crypto's cannot become widely adopted... No matter what. Don't have to explain that one.
* We must avoid major governments bans every time a new government is elected. The more disruptive they get to the economy and taxes, the more likely they are to get banned. A ban WILL stop crypto. They don't let you bring your parent basement to jail.
So the probability for Litecoin to NOT go to zero is == X * Y * Z * OHCRAP.
We can put example values.
Let's try the delusional approach.
1/ Blockchain is so awesome wow. 80% chance we have flying (tesla) cars and all use blockchain in 25 years. No "new blockchain v2.0" that means actual crypto's are abandonned since the basis changed and we got something new and smarter.
2/ Crypto does not evolve in a major way, we keep it as it is with small improvements like lightning of course. They don't work very well but some very motivated people manage to bring the spaghetti code to something that works. 80% chance that everything stay the same and some of today's crypto stay. No new improved revolutionary crypto v2.0 (next FAD) that gets people all excited.
3/ There are several crypto that are faster cheaper than Litecoin, and bigger names too. and more uses. But the name of Litecoin and the fact it has been around for a few years really convince people. A super optimist would give a 75% probability of that happening and that seems too high...
4/ Hahaha. Ok every new elected government... In south korea crypto's have been a huge problem, China even. Let's say we are believers and give an 80% chance they won't get banned.
What does this give us in total???
Roll the drums. An optimistic approach would give Litecoin a :
0.8x0.8x0.75x0.8 = 0.384 = 38.4% chance Litecoin survives if we are optimistic about every link in the chain.
Pessimistic numbers in update:
Uwaga
Let's try with different numbers, the pessimistic ones.1/ I think the blockchain is useless. EXPENSIVE. ENERGY INTENSIVE. INEFFICIENT. People do not even have enough TB to store anything.
It will never ben decentralized if only huge data companies can store it massive database. So let's say we want to have a blockchain 2.0 maybe you only need to store your own data + the data next to it + some hash, it cannot be tempered and every one that needs to know about the data every party involved will, but the whole planet does not have to store the whole database. 20% probability we keep blockchain, this is pessimistic scenario and positive one had 80% chance.
2/ I think it unlikely crypto stays as it is EVEN if blockchain remains. It would have to be reworked entirely it would be something new and your little coins would not belong to the new thing. Will everyone carefully premine the new crypto's to transfer them to the new crypto's? Spend 50000 years doing that? XD good luck.
Pessimistic but not too much I will grant a 20% probability crypto's remain in their state if blockchain remains.
3/ Let's be real... Just for the sake of not being too pessimistic I will give a 20%, but it's 0.20%
4/ Hehehe real number is 0% simple maths. Cryptos are not governement backed. Every new governement has the potential to ban them. Sooner or later they WILL get banned. Even if it is low probability. Roll ten dices enough times and EVENTUALLY you will get 10 6's. To not get bulls to cry I will say "20% chance cryptocurrencies do not get banned by major governments in our lifetimes".
Probability Litecoin does not HIT THE GROUND: 0.2^4 = 0.0016.
0.16% chance.
ZERO POINT SIXTEEN.
0.16% chance that it won't go to zero and it *might* get back to ath in 20 years= Go play lottery.
Yeah and those are just the odds on NOT going to ZERO.
So next time a crypto guru tells you "it's worth it even if its 50/50 if we go up" make sure you take into account every thing and remember how probability calculations work. You multiply them...
Bonus:
50/50 chance blockchain still exist in 15 years.
50/50 chance cryptos don't get banned in 15 years.
50/50 chance people actually still care/want crypto and not something new.
50/50 chance Litecoin is one the crypto's that makes it.
50/50 chance that crypto is not just used to buy stuff but people throw money in it.
Odds of all that happening = 0.5^5 = 3.125%
Oh and probability to get rich quick = flat ZERO.
Uwaga
Some numbers:Summary for HODLers: Paypal = 10 MM tx/day. LTC = 1kB/tx. Storing 10 GB every single day = many alot. This bad bad for LTC future "decentralized shared".
VISA = > 150 MM tx/day. Story 1500 GB every single day is nono. Litecoin no moon Litecoin no replace banks. Whole code has to be redevelopped from scratched IF it even was possible to make something better.
VISA handles on average around 2,000 transactions per second (tps), so call it a daily peak rate of 4,000 tps. It has a peak capacity of around 56,000 transactions per second, however they never actually use more than about a third of this even during peak shopping periods.
PayPal, in contrast, handled around 10 million transactions per day for an average of 115 tps in late 2014.
Each transaction has to be
broadcast twice, so lets say 1KB per transaction. Visa processed 37 billion
transactions in FY2008, or an average of 100 million transactions per day.
That many transactions would take 100GB of bandwidth, or the size of 12 DVD or
2 HD quality movies, or about $18 worth of bandwidth at current prices.
If the network were to get that big, it would take several years, and by then,
sending 2 HD movies over the Internet would probably not seem like a big deal.
I just copy pasted text from bitcoin wikipedia and from Satoshi posts.
I could not find exactly what the size of a LTC transaction was, could probably calculate it with the size of the whole thing and how many tx have been made, but let's say it is 1KB each I know it is something arund that if not wrong.
Paypal = 10MM/day. You got 10 GB a day of new data to download...
Every single day... Like downloading a new game on steam.
I am not even calculating it if it "replaces banks and VISA (rofl)" as some "visionaries" think.
365 days = 3.6 TB.
10 years = 36 TB.
Ye but it is no problem we just get 1000 TB hard drives in 10 years, and bigger and bigger it will grow infinitely rite?
Uwaga
Ok some numbers are visible here:bitinfocharts.com
ETH blockchain size just broke the 666 GB mark. U must be kidding me...
I must have misunderstood something... they expect people other than governments and big companies to actually download that? 666 gigs is doable, but what about 6666??? That too? And in 10 years? 666666666?
GTFO.
Uwaga
I do not know if they can work a system where people share the blockchain, every one randomly has parts of it...Still would be a headache to construct the puzzle, find the needed info every time to check something.
Any way to see it it is just so bad and for so many reasons.
Uwaga
I think Litecoin will go to literally 0, but this is how it will happen:- Phase 1 ends up on a site like this: deadcoins.com
Some people that cannot let go still own it and run nodes.
A bit like some people still play Dark Age of Camelot to this day.
- Phase 2 is when the people that cannot let go of Litecoin die.
Yeah they might try to force the thing to survive but they won't live forever.
Some LTC might still exist on old PC's, some lucky children might have "inherited"
some, thought I think it will be quite rare they have children.
- Phase 3 the next generation dies. A museum might have some LTC (a museum of
dead ponzo magic coins created by me...) but apart from that they totally
vanish. ZERO
* I feel the formatting of this will be all wrong...
Should I start my museum of ponzocoins?
Uwaga
I don't know how valid this is, but:- Wow grew in popularity and was very popular for 10 years
- League of legends has been popular for near 10 years, starting to decline due to the dumb decisions of the people developping it(people leaving for fortnite I heard)
- Counter strike was from 2000, and in 2012 it made place to cs:go
- Dark age of Camelot dates from 2001-2002 & same about 10 years
- Guild wars 2 been popular for 6 years
- Dota dates back to 2003 & fell in popularity until it was replaced by Dota2
- GTA V online been around 5 years, people are still playing it I see no decline
- Cryptocurrencies have been around for 8 years, very popular massively multiplayer online game. It reached its peak in popularity after 8 years.
For how long will players still log in & play the game? And how long for enough gamers to stop logging in so we can consider it hit rock bottom and it is over?
Uwaga
Call me cruel but I CANNOT wait for this to happen:* We go down and it looks like everything is lost.
* We move horizontally for a few weeks or months
* LTC price gets pumped. The HODLers celebrate, they joyfully even buy more with all their money. Foam forms around their mouth and cannot argue with them as they yell how excited they are and in a complete trance anyway.
* Then it falls like a rock to 0 in a day and I explode and cannot stop laughing.
Uwaga
Oh by the way I warned Litecoin would not bottom at $100
Exponential growth calls for an exponential fall.
Technically, any price below $5 for Litecoin I will consider I was right, the great FOMO of 2018 will have totally flopped.
I would be satisfied with below 25$ but less than 5 when people bought it at 250+ wow yeah that can be called 0. 30000$ lifesavings @ 250$ = $600 lifesavings enjoy your diner, children bike and pack of gums you can purchase with your lifesavings.
Uwaga
What I think will happen:- We fall to 55$ bounce,
- fall to 30 bounce,
- then waterfall down to 5$ maybe capitulation.
Don't know and don't care if it goes below 5$, could stay above if gamers still keep playing the MMO. They are still paying $15 a month for WOW, sho why not keep paying that to buy a couple LTC every week?
It is one of the most popular MMO's. It is pointless and has no future thought.
The world is better off without it, regardless if you inparticular got scammed and bought while Charlie Lee was selling or not.
Uwaga
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They are offering services to all kind of investors, both those looking to
Buy high and sell low
OR
Longer term investors that wish to H0DL TO ZERO.
Uwaga
Leaked audio of a Bitcoin paper billionaire shilling crypto every day.unhashed.com/cryptocurrency-news/chinese-bitcoin-billionaire-rips-neo-tron-binance-ceo-leaked-audio/
"Litecoin (LTC) is stupid. The creator of Litecoin, Charlie Lee, does not even believe in the project himself. There is no innovation behind Litecoin. It’s just a knockoff of Bitcoin. Lee only started working on Litecoin full time when he realized how many idiots had believed his lie about Bitcoin being the gold and Litecoin being the silver. Lee sold all his LTC during the boom and began working with Coinbase."
Wow I am so amazed. This was totally unexpected. I had no idea this was what these crypto shillers really thought. Who could have predicted this?
...
But badHODLers worry not, this is obviously something he did on purpose to FUD and be able to buy more cheap. What do you mean he already has a giant stash and it only makes sense he would want to price to go up now, nono he wants to buy even more.
Uwaga
I explained in my last update of this idea why crypto can only go to zeroIt is basic maths... ultra simple.
Oh and like in math the price "tends towards zero" this means it get very very close and keeps getting closer but never touches it (only at infinity is it touched), this is not precise maths ticks are not infinitly dividable so it could actually touch zero some day.
To sum up, now that "sophisticated" people just like me came to take money out of the crypto market & put it in their pockets, it just cannot go up.
Only way to go up is new investors buy, but if they come and buy an uptrend starts I go long then sell, the short at the top, I just keep taking some of the money they put in.
This market has ZERO fundamentals and is dictated by TA, and is super easy.
It is the worse kind of noobs agains people like me, how do they think they can win?
Since it is not possible for new money to come in without making the price move (=volatility = traders jump in to take their cut) AND new money cannot be printed "out of thin air" (crypto strength they said...) idk if I am being clear, but you understand I think, just simple maths and logic.
Only way to go up is a massive inflow of money and no HODLer sells traders still take money but so much money is poured in the money they take out of the market is negligeable. Also inflation has to be beaten.
But massive inflows of money do not happen if the price does not go up first...
Literally impossible.
Ok nice sum up taking 10 lines...
Uwaga
Nice I just noticed Litecoin went to 50$ a few weeks ago.I rarely look at it anymore.
Still think I am full of it?
Next stop 35-40$, then 25$, then 10$, then 5$.
Uwaga
Under the pressure from bagHODLers I was a little too bullish on Litecoin.It performed even worse than predicted in my "FUD".
Correction:
Next stop 20$, then 3-4$, then 0.
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