EDUCATION -HOW TO TRADE NFP

🔎 Current Chart Context (Sept 1–4)

Price rallied strongly from 97.60 → 98.60 on Sept 1 (likely institutional accumulation).

Since then, we’ve been in a range/consolidation:

Support zone: 97.90 – 98.00

Resistance zone: 98.55 – 98.65


Liquidity pools:

Buy-side liquidity above 98.65 (equal highs).

Sell-side liquidity below 97.90 (equal lows).



This is a perfect pre-NFP “box” setup.


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📌 Likely NFP Scenarios (Sept 5)

Based on technical footprints:

1. Liquidity Sweep to the Upside → Reversal Down (High Probability)

Price spikes above 98.65 resistance on the NFP release.

Retail traders chase the breakout.

Institutions sell into that liquidity.

Reversal targets 98.00 / 97.90 support (maybe deeper toward 97.70).


This would match the typical “NFP fake breakout” play.


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2. Liquidity Sweep to the Downside → Reversal Up (Alternative)

Price sweeps below 97.90 support first.

Sharp rejection back inside the box.

Real move then pushes back above 98.40–98.60.


This scenario requires a strong rejection wick — otherwise, a clean break of 97.90 means sellers fully take control.


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🔑 Technical Clue

Institutions already built longs from 97.60.

They might use NFP to take profit by running price above 98.65, then selling off.

If the spike and reversal play happens → expect USD weakness after the news.



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🎯 Trading Playbook for Tomorrow

1. Mark the range box: 97.90 (support) – 98.65 (resistance).


2. Wait for the first spike on NFP (don’t chase it).


3. If it sweeps liquidity (either side) and rejects sharply → trade the opposite direction.


4. Targets: opposite side of the box (98.65 → 97.90, or 97.90 → 98.65).




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✅ In short: Technically, todays NFP will likely grab stops above 98.65 first, then reverse lower toward 98.00/97.90. But always wait for confirmation — the first spike is usually the trap.