Bank of England, 5 Years of Brexit, Taleb vs. Crypto

25 cze 2021

This week it's been 5 years since the historic referendum as for the UK leaving the EU. It is difficult to say whether they have achieved what the supporters of Brexit wanted, but the losses in this case are quite tangible. Politically, the UK may lose a couple of its members. We mean Scotland, whose referendum on independence is rather a matter of time but not a hypothetical possibility. Yes, and Northern Ireland under this noise can secede from the metropolis and join Ireland. In economic terms, a complete failure in exports from Brittany to the EU at the start of 2021 (a drop of about 50%) for various reasons is a reason for pessimism. But there is also the financial sector, the service sector, etc. In general, it turned out to be a sad anniversary.

The Bank of England did not extend a helping hand to the British pound yesterday. There was a formal reason for at least verbal intervention in the Central Bank (inflation exceeded the target). But in fact, the parameters of monetary policy were left unchanged. As a result, the pound immediately lost about a hundred points.

Rumors have spread in the oil market that the United States and Iran have agreed and that the lifting of sanctions on Iran is only a matter of time. If this is the case, then we can expect a sharp increase in supply on the market (up to 2 million bpd). In addition, during the sanctions, Iran has accumulated quite large oil reserves (up to 79 million barrels), which the country can also throw on the market. In general, it will definitely not seem a little. In this regard, we remind you of our recommendation to sell oil.

Fundamental negativity continues to accumulate in the cryptocurrency market. Another scandal with cryptocurrency companies showed how vulnerable and unprotected the owners of cryptocurrencies are. The South African crypto company Africrypt, judging by the information received, has robbed its clients for $ 3.6 billion. We remember a recent similar case in Turkey.

And then the publicized Nassim Taleb published a rough version of an article on bitcoin, where he went through the cryptocurrencies extremely hard. Key points: the real value of the cryptocurrency is zero, and the blockchain is, in fact, a useless technology. The author of "Black Swan" can be treated in different ways (in academic circles, not everyone will greet him), but only twitter he has about 750K subscribers, and the books are sold in millions of copies. So even if he does not compare with Musk, he has some potential as an influencer.