BTC 2021 Fractal nears BO pt but 12k still possible if rejected
BTC seems to be repeating a 2021 pattern before it BO the black line & rallies to 69k. Similarly, it broke below the red trendline, broke above it & came down again & retested it. Is a big rally also coming?
BULLISH SCENARIO: If BTC also breaks above the black trendline in the next few days, then it will also break above the ma100 & ma50 lines & also the Ichimuko Cloud. The ultimate resistances will be the descending black & blue trendlines (you may also see them as falling wedges with the red line as base) before any true rally.
WATCHING SPY: We should watch SPY for any risk-off play as market sentiment changes quickly. I am still optimistic for an “Up UP & Away scenario” in the 4Q2022 specially if the next CPI report still supports peaking inflation & the FED becomes less hawkish.
BEARISH CASE: if BTC gets rejected in the next few days by the ma100, ma50, Ichimuko Cloud & also the
black & blue trendlines, then 12k remains on the table.
The ABC wave playbook:
BTC is so far holding 18k which is 2x retracement of wave B. Looking at the bigger ABC wave from 69k, 12k will be a reasonable destination since wave C will be equal to wave A (a perfect ABC wave).
CAUTION ahead: BTC is currently overbought & may be shortterm bearish. HOWEVER, Rsi may remain overbought for a long time in a strong bullrun.
Not trading advice but I hope this helps somebody analyze better & manage upcoming risk.
BULLISH SCENARIO: If BTC also breaks above the black trendline in the next few days, then it will also break above the ma100 & ma50 lines & also the Ichimuko Cloud. The ultimate resistances will be the descending black & blue trendlines (you may also see them as falling wedges with the red line as base) before any true rally.
WATCHING SPY: We should watch SPY for any risk-off play as market sentiment changes quickly. I am still optimistic for an “Up UP & Away scenario” in the 4Q2022 specially if the next CPI report still supports peaking inflation & the FED becomes less hawkish.
BEARISH CASE: if BTC gets rejected in the next few days by the ma100, ma50, Ichimuko Cloud & also the
black & blue trendlines, then 12k remains on the table.
The ABC wave playbook:
BTC is so far holding 18k which is 2x retracement of wave B. Looking at the bigger ABC wave from 69k, 12k will be a reasonable destination since wave C will be equal to wave A (a perfect ABC wave).
CAUTION ahead: BTC is currently overbought & may be shortterm bearish. HOWEVER, Rsi may remain overbought for a long time in a strong bullrun.
Not trading advice but I hope this helps somebody analyze better & manage upcoming risk.
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