Shock, followed by Awe [follow the white rabbit fractal]
I remember buying bitcoin to trade on BTC-e, Mt. Gox, and Bitstamp back when it was $200. Obviously only one of those exchanges is still standing, and it's sadly not the one I kept my coins on.
The market dynamics underlying these bubble runs reveals itself in the candles, their fractals - and thanks to the global Covid-19 crash, we've just had another defining event. That was our "pre-bubble" spike, the sudden shock to the price that otherwise would have remained stable without an external event. The truth is in the volume and in ***how quickly and steadily price has risen RIGHT BACK to it's pre-shock price***
We've had various "shocks" to the market before, of course, but under different circumstances. This is the one that coincides with the steady accumulation that's already been going on since 3K (note the reflection line on the price), and the smart money has shown nothing but appetite for every buying opportunity. Someday we'll look back at the Covid crash and wish we had been able to get our cash onto the exchanges fast enough to catch cheap coins -- exactly the same way I remember feeling in Oct. 2013 and Mar. 2017.
We have climbed straight back up out of the Covid shock hole on a nonstop diagonal buying floor. No oscillation from that shock wave, no waves swinging back and forth to a median. Only Up and Sideways and Up. That's the result of buying appetite. That's what the candles are printing on this slope all the way up to 10K. Whales are doing their best to suppress the rise so they can collect the coins being shaken out of weak hands during the sideways chop.
Yes, the 11.2K downline from the ATH peak is the overhead resistance. Many will open shorts there. We may even have a minor post-halving pullback because so many bears are expecting it. Every single coin dumped will be swallowed up in that range.
It will be a very shortlived pullback, if at all. Don't wait for perfect long entry prices
Once 12K is cleared, we are in vertical rally territory, there's no more sub-10K coins to be bought, and late-game buyers will jump in front of each other to catch the train, causing immense one-way rally gains.
I've always been bullish on bitcoin long-term, my "pessimistic" trades in bear seasons have been for the purpose of accumulating again, plain and simple. We all want cheap coins for the next rally. The question that we all argue about is simply, when does it begin?
Now.
Burn me at the stake if I'm wrong. Sit on your cash and wait for cheaper coins, that's safe (just not profitable).
But please save yourself from painful liquidation burns and don't touch leverage on any short you open from now until the end of the year. Hyper-leverage is going to annihilate the glut of weak exchanges this year. Expect trading engines to seize up. I remember Bitfinex being early in the game with margin trading, and watching BFX and BTC-e suffer margin cascades that blew through the entire orderbook, failing to execute orders. It will happen again. There will be blood and tears as candles make multi-thousand dollar swings. The only safety is in buying and holding. If you want excitement, go long.
The white rabbit appears, as the dust clears from Covid fears...
Major hat tip to zoinky, who has suffered fools in the trollbox with me all these years. His keen eye spotted the rabbit first
The market dynamics underlying these bubble runs reveals itself in the candles, their fractals - and thanks to the global Covid-19 crash, we've just had another defining event. That was our "pre-bubble" spike, the sudden shock to the price that otherwise would have remained stable without an external event. The truth is in the volume and in ***how quickly and steadily price has risen RIGHT BACK to it's pre-shock price***
We've had various "shocks" to the market before, of course, but under different circumstances. This is the one that coincides with the steady accumulation that's already been going on since 3K (note the reflection line on the price), and the smart money has shown nothing but appetite for every buying opportunity. Someday we'll look back at the Covid crash and wish we had been able to get our cash onto the exchanges fast enough to catch cheap coins -- exactly the same way I remember feeling in Oct. 2013 and Mar. 2017.
We have climbed straight back up out of the Covid shock hole on a nonstop diagonal buying floor. No oscillation from that shock wave, no waves swinging back and forth to a median. Only Up and Sideways and Up. That's the result of buying appetite. That's what the candles are printing on this slope all the way up to 10K. Whales are doing their best to suppress the rise so they can collect the coins being shaken out of weak hands during the sideways chop.
Yes, the 11.2K downline from the ATH peak is the overhead resistance. Many will open shorts there. We may even have a minor post-halving pullback because so many bears are expecting it. Every single coin dumped will be swallowed up in that range.
It will be a very shortlived pullback, if at all. Don't wait for perfect long entry prices
Once 12K is cleared, we are in vertical rally territory, there's no more sub-10K coins to be bought, and late-game buyers will jump in front of each other to catch the train, causing immense one-way rally gains.
I've always been bullish on bitcoin long-term, my "pessimistic" trades in bear seasons have been for the purpose of accumulating again, plain and simple. We all want cheap coins for the next rally. The question that we all argue about is simply, when does it begin?
Now.
Burn me at the stake if I'm wrong. Sit on your cash and wait for cheaper coins, that's safe (just not profitable).
But please save yourself from painful liquidation burns and don't touch leverage on any short you open from now until the end of the year. Hyper-leverage is going to annihilate the glut of weak exchanges this year. Expect trading engines to seize up. I remember Bitfinex being early in the game with margin trading, and watching BFX and BTC-e suffer margin cascades that blew through the entire orderbook, failing to execute orders. It will happen again. There will be blood and tears as candles make multi-thousand dollar swings. The only safety is in buying and holding. If you want excitement, go long.
The white rabbit appears, as the dust clears from Covid fears...
Major hat tip to zoinky, who has suffered fools in the trollbox with me all these years. His keen eye spotted the rabbit first
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