Hi!
I tried to analyze bitcoin's cycles since the beggining at
BTCUSD
(on 1D timeframe) using some tools like Moving Averages and Ichimoku Cloud and Fibonacci Levels based on ATH prices of each cyle. Each cycle type is represented by colors:
1- Green is when the price is going to have a new ATH compared to the last ATH
2- Red is when the price is going to move down from the last ATH
3- Blue is when the price seems not going down anymore and moving up go get to the last ATH
The result is very interesting because each cycle has similar behaviours. The Main cycle is when there is a Green, Red and Blue and then there will be a Green again for the new cycle.
Logic of detecting Red part some times makes a Red between two Greens (which is normal but it makes a bit difference in the behaviour of the last part of that shorter Red part) so the valuable part is the Blue!
You can see the interesting noticable similarity of the Blue's price movement and duration (written in the boxes).
What I understood from this model about each part was:
In the Greens, strongest candles of the whole market appear with higher volumes. which are the shortest parts too.
in the Reds, we see a lot of hammer candles here, price moves down step by step (unless it is going to have a NEW ATH which makes the duration of Red part vert shorter than the main Red parts before the Blue). Temporary resistances make some range channels but finally the price will go down a lot!
in the Blues, the main weak uptrend from the bottom which is finally going to see its last ATH price, but very slowly and weakly compared to the Green part. Some times there will be a lot of temporary downtrends too but in the end, price is going up. this part maybe the best time to buy for long time holding.
What makes this model interesting is that cycles match fundamental events like HALVING and periodic cycle analyses based on that.
In the last cylce we haven't seen the Blue Signal yet! so there should be alot of more patient till we say there will be no more down.
I hope it gives you more insight on the long term trend of crypto. I would be glad to hear your ideas to improve the model.
I tried to analyze bitcoin's cycles since the beggining at
BTCUSD
(on 1D timeframe) using some tools like Moving Averages and Ichimoku Cloud and Fibonacci Levels based on ATH prices of each cyle. Each cycle type is represented by colors: 1- Green is when the price is going to have a new ATH compared to the last ATH
2- Red is when the price is going to move down from the last ATH
3- Blue is when the price seems not going down anymore and moving up go get to the last ATH
The result is very interesting because each cycle has similar behaviours. The Main cycle is when there is a Green, Red and Blue and then there will be a Green again for the new cycle.
Logic of detecting Red part some times makes a Red between two Greens (which is normal but it makes a bit difference in the behaviour of the last part of that shorter Red part) so the valuable part is the Blue!
You can see the interesting noticable similarity of the Blue's price movement and duration (written in the boxes).
What I understood from this model about each part was:
In the Greens, strongest candles of the whole market appear with higher volumes. which are the shortest parts too.
in the Reds, we see a lot of hammer candles here, price moves down step by step (unless it is going to have a NEW ATH which makes the duration of Red part vert shorter than the main Red parts before the Blue). Temporary resistances make some range channels but finally the price will go down a lot!
in the Blues, the main weak uptrend from the bottom which is finally going to see its last ATH price, but very slowly and weakly compared to the Green part. Some times there will be a lot of temporary downtrends too but in the end, price is going up. this part maybe the best time to buy for long time holding.
What makes this model interesting is that cycles match fundamental events like HALVING and periodic cycle analyses based on that.
In the last cylce we haven't seen the Blue Signal yet! so there should be alot of more patient till we say there will be no more down.
I hope it gives you more insight on the long term trend of crypto. I would be glad to hear your ideas to improve the model.
nfa & dyor
Invest Smart!
Invest Smart!
