BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
The Metric we have been tracking closely the last days has finally confirmed.

The 1 and 2 month Hash Rates have crossed. We are in a Bitcoin Miner Capitulation.

The only question now is, how deep will we go.
Buying signal (blue circle) just pop up on daily candles.
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@Appelsiner, yes it did
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Is it possible to have periods of miner capitulation which give "positive returns"....? There are about 10 periods of miner capitulation and if i am not wrong in three of them the returns were positive as for example in April 2015, Dec 2012 and June 2012.
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@Appelsiner, yes. I wrote an analysis about Hash Bottoms on Medium.
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Appelsiner capriole_charles
@capriole_charles, Yes, I´ve read it (Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms). But what I am trying to say is that in those 10 miner capitulation periods, there are 3 that from grey to blue circle the price of bitcoin went up instead going down, is this possible...?
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@Appelsiner, of course. You might call these "mini-capitulations", they ran for just over 2 weeks and had negligible impact on price. They didn't run much longer than the current capitulation has to date (~2 weeks).

My analysis found that great returns (with low risk) are possible on buying recovery. However, even higher returns are possible when buying during capitulation, but you also risk bigger downdraws. This is why I am an advocate of buying on Hash Rate recovery, because we don't know how deep a capitulation will go before the fact.

The other thing to remember is that the Hash Ribbons is simply a criterion for highlighting stagnation in Hash Rate growth, it doesn’t always lead to big drops (like in the cases you highlight). But even when there are no big drops (such as in those 3 cases) you still have a great buying opportunity on Hash Rate recovery.

You could develop a stricter criterion, to only highlight deep capitulations, but then you also run the risk of riding through the majority of the miner capitulations. You likely wouldn’t be able to classify it until it is at its worst or until it is over. A stricter definition of capitulation likely also wouldn’t be able to identify or confirm recovery until after the fact, and would therefore miss the wonderful buying opportunities that capitulations (and “mini capitulations”) offer.

I found the 1- and 2-month Hash Rate crossovers to be a good benchmark for classifying capitulation. Some will be big, some will be small. But it’s a clear-cut ruleset, strips out the ambiguity in the moment and highlights great times to buy Bitcoin.
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Appelsiner capriole_charles
@capriole_charles, Yes, in those 3, 2 are like that, one period lasted 6 days in April 2015 went up +2.9%, other in June 2012 lasted 16 days and went up 19.16% BUT the third one it happened just after the first halving Dec 2012, went up +53% and lasted 52 days.
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Appelsiner Appelsiner
@Appelsiner, Thank you Charles! Great Job!.
+1 Odpowiedź
Appelsiner Appelsiner
@Appelsiner, Hi there,

Hashrate recovered signal just pop up (green pale circle) in daily and weekly candles.
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