2500-2900-3800-5500 DRAFT 7-2, 2420 IN 3 DAYS
Introduction - Ceremoniously, with conviction in due diligence and much more anticipation, Binary Forecasting Service, presents 2300, 2350, and 2400 in succession before this week is out. Continuing from DRAFT 7-2 and price action in the last hour, bulls responded to bears's apparent "overselling to 2253" with a spike to 2277. In which ferocious bears jumped on Michelle Bowman's speech to washout weak hands to 2250. Having broken down what that meant for intra-day trend technical damage, this is what Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine foresee for the next 3 days.
Event Markers - In chart above all the blue arrows are the remaining Fed speakers for this week. In regular English, that's called a "fully loaded" week. Forecasts can change, but Fed speakers are devious AF, SO BE CAREFUL! The singular big blue arrow is of course big dog Jerome Powell. The three black arrows in succession are ADP, initial jobless claims and the fifth horseman of the Apocalypse, otherwise known as Non Farm Payrolls.
Details - To prevent misunderstanding, the "four targets" 2500 to 5500 are NOT ALL meant for this month. BFS trend engine thinks 5500 will arrive between October 2025 and February 2026. The yellow route in chart at top is outright favorite. The light blue route is PLAN B if base case fails to play out. This draft is one of many in a series that attempts to map both price and time accurately. From DRAFT 7-1, I still see 2500s in April AT THIS TIME. Since the route to 2400s has changed meaningfully, 2500s too may also change and have a dampening effect on the four targets ala 2400-2800-3600-5000. For back ground please see previous work in links below. Per the usual, will add more notes soon.
Event Markers - In chart above all the blue arrows are the remaining Fed speakers for this week. In regular English, that's called a "fully loaded" week. Forecasts can change, but Fed speakers are devious AF, SO BE CAREFUL! The singular big blue arrow is of course big dog Jerome Powell. The three black arrows in succession are ADP, initial jobless claims and the fifth horseman of the Apocalypse, otherwise known as Non Farm Payrolls.
Details - To prevent misunderstanding, the "four targets" 2500 to 5500 are NOT ALL meant for this month. BFS trend engine thinks 5500 will arrive between October 2025 and February 2026. The yellow route in chart at top is outright favorite. The light blue route is PLAN B if base case fails to play out. This draft is one of many in a series that attempts to map both price and time accurately. From DRAFT 7-1, I still see 2500s in April AT THIS TIME. Since the route to 2400s has changed meaningfully, 2500s too may also change and have a dampening effect on the four targets ala 2400-2800-3600-5000. For back ground please see previous work in links below. Per the usual, will add more notes soon.
Uwaga
04/02, 1:42 PM ET and 2262.xx, NOTES:a) once again for those that are not aware:
Uwaga
b) in chart above, the bold line from 1981 crossing over 2011's high ...c) is the reason why 2300s have been so delayed this last 3 weeks
d) serious people with serious money also see that THIS IS A DAUNTING TARGET LINE
e) but Binary Forecasting Service's proprietary trend engine says that the time is here
f) to challenge and "false break" this trend line
g) I've never liked the wording "false break" bc a break is a break
h) you can also "break back down" but whatever
i) so this week is the week and Sunday-Monday is the post-NFP rug pull check-down
j) the strategy here is like everywhere else, long going up and short going down
Uwaga
1:58 PM ET 2266.XX, this chart is from previous post last hour: VXl9Bc7M
Uwaga
Uwaga
a) for chart above, remember:b) the price for moving too fast is a rug-pull correction
c) this may happen a few more times before ADP tomorrow
d) especially if bulls move too fast
Uwaga
Uwaga
2:12 PM ET and 2271.xx again a) in the last hour in DRAFT 7-1
b) I said that bulls want vengeance... but if they move too fast
c) the risk of rug pull is very high
d) and it's 2272.xx as I type...
e) I don't trade daily, but for those that do BE AWARE
Uwaga
f) for the record, I don't trade daily often g) but when I am this EXTREMELY LEVERAGED, and I see a hard spike
h) I take some or a lot of money off the table LIKE WHAT YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO DO
I) ok.
Uwaga
j) so it's 2171.xx and the spike limit is 84 but THE USUAL ROUTE IS 62 FIRSTk) so if I see 62, I lever up again like I did at 54
Uwaga
l) 2:45, 68.xx, hold on 62 is too soon to be levering bc:Uwaga
m) ooh... 71.xx again, I gotta look at thisUwaga
n) WATCHOUT FOR SPIKE UP!o) bulls are saying 2271 is not just getting even
p) they want more, but HOW HIGH??
Uwaga
r) spike ceiling was is 2284, but bulls want vengeances) so????
t) 2300!!
Uwaga
u) see these two lines?Uwaga
v) they line up with the two sets for bollingers that matter1) the intraday spike at 2286
2) and day hard ceiling at 2297+
3) bears have had enough time to correct the spike but they have not
4) that means the favored moved is 2285 and if that doesn't the bulls
5) then 2295-2300
Uwaga
6) the big channel ceiling is 2305, just be aware7) bulls have been oppressed, repressed, and suppressed long enough '
8) they want vengeance and they want blood!
9) LFG!!!
Uwaga
10) BUT! this curve runs PAST NY CLOSE11) so it looks like continuously up to end of after market at 5 PM ET
12) which would put the ceiling at 2300+
Uwaga
13) and what if ... 14) 2305 is not enough to satisfy the bulls demand for vegeance?
15) that has to be between 6PM ET (aftermarket reopen in U.S) and 10 maybe 11 PM
16) max pain for bears 2325 before the bulls quit
17) so it's 2274.xx as I type and there's three targets bulls want
1) 2285, 2300, and what looks like 2323
Uwaga
19) bulls are back baby!!! 20) and this time we are not going any where!!!
22) at least until 2410
Uwaga
3:46 PM ET AND 2276.XX, a) remember, price do not move in a straight line
b) between now and 2325, you have to cross 2300
c) OBVIOUSLY SOME SELLING WILL HIT probably 15-20 pts of zig zag
d) example: 2303, 2987, AND THEN 2323
Uwaga
e) WAIT, 2323 IS NOT OBVIOUSf) so... 2313...
g) to keep it simple, it's 2278.xx now
h) AND SHOULD GO 2300-2285-2315
I) THEN CHECK DOWN
Uwaga
m) no .. I don't know if 2313 is the top for tonightn) there's no way to to know what happens after 2310
o) we have to play it by ear, but I think my first call for 2325 is more accurate
Uwaga
p) 4:08 PM 2276.xx in after marketq) there's enough time to get to 2297 before after market is done
r) com'on!!
Uwaga
s) 4:19 PM, still 76.xx and stallingt) all we have to do is hit 2285 and the rest should be a vertical move super quick
u) so it's not like regularly waiting for or 24 point move out of nowhere
Uwaga
w) 4:26 PM ET still 76.xx, WE HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIMEx) but it SHOULD HAPPEN!
Uwaga
y) 2278.xx, I think it's going for it!, remember to get out at 2300 z) why? bc it's 2300, it's not like you won't get retrace the first time!
Uwaga
z1) 4:36 PM and 2278.xx first rejection at 2280 new high, it will try againz2) need to break 2285 and it should fly
Uwaga
z3) 4:43 PM ET and still 79.xx, if it doesn't move it's going to be gap up when it reopensz4) I hate those bc of so little reaction time allowed
z5) I'd rather have it now, but I'm not sure it has enough time now
Uwaga
z6) 4:48 PM, 12 MIN TO GO and 20280.xx still have a chance .. com'on...Uwaga
z7) 4:59 PM ET 2280.XX, what a tease! ARRHGHHHGHHGHGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Uwaga
5:00 PM, aftermarket closed 2279,xx with futures at 2301.xx a) ANNOYING AF!
b) I gotta take a break
Uwaga
5:03 PM c) that was such a college slut moment
d) we almost had her, panties off and everything.... argh......
e) ok so, base case is gap up and run to 2297-2305
f) IF NO GAP UP... THERE'S A DEAD LINE or it becomes a check-down
Uwaga
g) dead line is 10 MINUTES OR LESS for it to move uph) and NO SWING DOWN MORE THAN 1 POINT
i) if it moves under 2078.5, THAT'S A PROBLEM! ...
j) why? because spike setups require perfection ...
k) once the setup is gone, it is gone
l) at best, it would fake out.. like ah pop to 2285 and then rug pull or somethign
Uwaga
m) but we going up and up and up next 3 days, n) it's hard NOT TO reach 2350 now
Uwaga
5:12 PM ET, TO ANSWER EVERYONE'S 2300 question belowa) no, not tomorrow, TONIGHT
b) we go in order of probability and that is:
1) open gap up and run to 2300
2) open NO GAP and simply spikes to 2300 in 20 mins (but must go up in first 7 minutes)
3) open NO GAP up, sideways, retrace to 2272 (then I don't know what next)
4) open NO GAP up, sideways, fake out to 2285, retrace, then move to 2300
c) so out of the four most likely 3, have us hitting 2300 before midnight
Uwaga
d) besides that it's less than 1%, futures just closed over 2300 first time everUwaga
6:05 PM 81.55 and not gonna happen.Uwaga
a) it's not going to be quickb) that's what's going on
c) now the annoying version
Uwaga
6:15 PM ET 2281.XX and I gotta take kids to sports... a) I'm not sure what annoying version of this should look like
b) but again ODDS FAVOR 2300 TONIGHT
c) good luck
Uwaga
6:27 PM, by the time I am back this 2300 move will be over, but here's what annoying meanta) we were setup for smooth move (all done in 20 min)
b) it moved late, so it's not going to be quick or smooth
c) it's 28 minutes already and it's gonna stall at 90-ish for a while before moving to 2300
d) remember, careful at 2300, bc you should get 15-20 pt retrace depending if it's
e) 2297 or 2305
Uwaga
f) and there might not be second move after 2300g) not obvious anymore
Uwaga
h) if you play chart at top, there is a chance of it just following yellow path tooI) I don't think so (right now at 6:41 PM)
Uwaga
7:47 PM, 2279.XX, I don't have time to look at this right nowa) so I can't handicap what the next move should be
b) while I still think it should hit 2300 first overnight
c) IT DOES NOT HAVE TO
d) it can still go down to 2265 and still be on time for 2400s this Friday
e) so be aware
Uwaga
8:40 PM ET, 2285.XX, I still think it should go to 2300 first, but I get why now...a) so originally, I said it was going to be 2297-2323
b) but then settled on 2300-2313, bc 2323 was not obvious at all
c) so if top is 2313, then first leg SHOULD'VE BEEN 2287, which it WAS
d) and top should be probably closer to 2311
e) how long?
f) about 3 -hours from now, closer to 3 hours
g) so BASE CASE FOR RIGHT NOW is 2311 by 12:30 AM ET (NY TIME)
h) but while it's favored to right now it is a conditional favorite
i) that means we need to see it break past 2288 soon
j) if it doesn't do it in the next 2 hours, then we have to seriously consider ...
k) the route in chart at top
l) it's a not a big difference overall bc both routes still target 2400s on Friday
m) it's JUST WEIRD if it doesn't go to 2300 from here first CONSIDERING THE CLOSE
Uwaga
9:36 PM ET 2279.XX it's going to NEITHER OF THOSE ROUTESa) so what?
b) so a mix of BOTH ROUTES
Uwaga
c) not that's not true, bc it's not going lowerd) here
e) last night, before I went out I said it's going up AND I DON'T KNOW HOW
f) we're here again, in similar situation
g) I can only tell you we going up again
h) the exact route IS UGLY AF, makes NO SENSE right now
Uwaga
Uwaga
Uwaga
a) for chart above, my best swing b) I'm too tired to do anymore
c) to sum it up, STAY LONG unless you know what you are doing
d) our target now is 2350 (bc 2300 is so obviously going to hit some time soon)
f) and whatever the retrace at 2300 is... at 2350 IT MUST BE BIGGER!
g) good night
Uwaga
Uwaga
10:40 PM ET, FOR THE RECORD:a) DRAFT 6-5 keeps hitting this out of the park:
Uwaga
b) whiled DRAFT 7-2 (chart at top for this post) has 2 routes...c) if we cant break 2350 on the second try ...
d) PLAN C?
e) is DRAFT 5:
Uwaga
9:17 PM 2286.XX becareful past 2294a) bc of the route it took
b) it makes this look like a trap at 2294
c) if there can be such a thing as a trap at all time high
Uwaga
3:26 AM ET... 2273.XX mirror image rule says have a hard stop in placeUwaga
3:32 AM ET, bears of the LBMA selling off hard, triggering 2230 signala) as a rule, London loves to put a cap on gold runs
b) this is dangerous though
c) so this post is dead until I wake in the AM
d) I'm going back to bed
Uwaga
3:38 AM OMG ... TREND ENGINE FLASHING 2100 SIGNAL...a) I killed all my longs just now at 2273
b) this is nuts ...
b) be careful!
Uwaga
3:44 AM ET... I HAVE A SPECIFIC SETTING SET FOR 3 AM ET SELL OFFSa) because of their PROVEN HISTORY TO SELL SO CONSISTENTLY...
b) that the only explanation is manipulation
c) they can say whatever they want
d) the signal for 2100 FLASHED WHILE IT WAS STILL 2175
e) that's only 12 points of ALL TIME HIGH just hours ago
f) the signal got triggered because of '"IMPOSSIBLE TO EXPLAIN" counter-trend selling
g) that starts 1 HOUR after London opens
h) as this has historically been the reason for these things going down in the past
Uwaga
i) therefore...1) this post and this series are all dead effective immediately
2) and while I cannot prove it bc I'm going back to bed ...
3) trend engine is CALLING FOR 2100 BY MONDAY 04/08
Uwaga
4) THEY ARE AIMING FOR THIS:Uwaga
5) this will put them at 2115 OR LOWER ON MONDAY!Uwaga
THIS POST AND ALL PREVIOUS WORK ARE DEAD EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY. HERE IS BASE CASE GOING FORWARD:
Uwaga
04/03, 10:17 AM, and 2276.xx back from 2100 false alarma) first sketch:
Uwaga
b) in chart above, we are in the process of correcting last night's technical damagec) always at
Uwaga
d) 3 AM ET out of Londone) I've seen the best setup get destroyed and rug pulled
f) so I had designed that advance warning to pick up that selling at 3AM
g) it busted the setup
h) now we are correcting the setup into an arc with 2 tops
i) AND IT WILL FINISH BY 3 AM ET THURSDAY
j) there will be two highs
k) first ball park is 2315 and 2350
Uwaga
10:22 AM ET - I make no apologies for cancelling when it was 2273 and recommended reentry at 2274..a) with stops tight AF
b) you have to see what I see to understand why I did that
Uwaga
10:30 AM ET - No second top....a) bears of the UK took out the second top
b) so it's only one top somewhere around 2320
c) AND THE CURVES have also changed to add more 2-way vol before a break of 2292
Uwaga
Uwaga
A) For chart above. Only the move to 2315 is obviousB) everything else ... no idea
Uwaga
10:48 AM: 2310 in 4 hours1) will that fix the curves?
2) no..
3) what will?
4) I don't know how it gets fixed
5) I've never seen it get fixed
Uwaga
11:52 PM, 2285.xx stalled by Fed speakers and they are not done until 1:30-2:00 PM.a) so this thing is going to need few extra hours
b) whatever the case the only thing obvious is 2310 maybe 2320
Uwaga
Uwaga
Uwaga
a) for chart above, stuff like that never happens....b) right?
c) why would they?
d) it's not like the GOLD gods care about us
Uwaga
Uwaga
Uwaga
a) in chart above, I don't know if that would "fix our curves"b) but odds of a second spike to 2350 would be real
Uwaga
12:38 PM ET.... one more speaker to go...a) is it possible?
b) I have never seen this damage reversed
c) but why would it?
d) do we deserve?
e) why should we be so blessed?
f) because perfect setups break all the time
g) this one FAR FROM PERFECT
h) why should the GOLD gods give us more reasons to believe?
Uwaga
Uwaga
12:49 PM ET at 2292.XX and wrapping up Wednesday:1) play chart at top
2) price is out of position vs the hi-light in a very critical place
3) I keep asking for a miracle run here...
4) TO CORRECT THAT POSITION
5) otherwise breaking 2350 is ... hard
6) as well said before my many...
7) 44-year trend lines just don't break easy
8) sorry about the overnight switch up
9) but I had to do it bc my trend enginge said so
10) when it was safe, I clarified it
11) other wise have a good day
Uwaga
1:17 PM BTW, we need 2325 and we need BEFORE NY closesa) to have a fighting chance to save this DRAFT
b) meaning chart at top
c) if not, its going to be a headache I don't want later
Uwaga
1:53 PM, 2294.48, we have enough time but we have to move over 2305 now...a) can't wait much longer
b) there's a clock on the overall move that it has to be on time
c) we still have time but we have moved now
Uwaga
d) typo... but we have "to move now"Uwaga
2:04 we need to get to 2303-2307 and sit there for about 20-30 mina) why?
b) bc this move finishes that way, it allows the short-term trends to catch up
c) and after that push this to 2328 and then 20 pt drop
Uwaga
2:50 PM, it not going make it easy:Uwaga
a) in chart above the differences are:b) the yellow was a double spike curving forward but bullish
c) the blue one is a run-away spike that is bearish bc it will hit whatever hard ceiling is
d) and go past it, then get massive rug pull
Uwaga
e) AND I DID NOT ILLUSTRATE THE RUG PULL ok?f) so be aware
Uwaga
g) no.. it should not be like that either... too early... so.. ??h) I am stumped
i) it's not obvious AT ALL WHAT THE SECOND MOVE SHOULD BE
j) so we should do 2328 and check down 20 first ...
k) move after that should one runaway but, should be a SEPARATE MOVE
Uwaga
3:00 PM NO... I don't know that.. a) I am stumped to what the shape should be
b) but I think it means we will hit 2350 before London opens
c) just watch out bc this is NOT BY THE BOOK MOVE
Uwaga
Uwaga
a) in chart above, that makes THE MOST SENSE to me right nowb) bc it should have one runaway move THAT IS SEPARATE FROM THE FIRST MOVE
c) that's a wrap today
Uwaga
3:34 PM it's going to up but not like thata) so this post has ended
b) I don't have a new draft or anything
c) but look up we should at least hit 2320
Uwaga
THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS DRAFT 7-3 GOOD FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
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