Złoto / Dolar USAZaktualizowano 3600/4800 DRAFT 9-3, GOLD IS GETTING READY TO GO NOWHERE AGAIN
Introduction - As anticipated overnight, bulls didn't put enough fight in at 2365 and ferocious bears took out the 43-year trend line. While it's not even obvious they are finished yet - because Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine still see 2323-27 as possible Monday targets before rebounding - I have strong conviction that gold is getting ready to nowhere again. Complete mean reversion may take 50-60 hours, but I have little doubt that price will retrace into "THE BOX" and tag 2382 by sometime this Wednesday. This box, that I adjusted to 2355-2400 limits on Saturday, will continue to trap price to AND THROUGH May 1st FOMC. At time of publishing, this analyst thinks maybe even May 2nd and May 3rd.
Details - Continuing from DRAFT 9-2, gold ignored "consensus expectations to hold gray line". Absent more missile attacks between Israel/Iran, bears took this opportunity to push price under 43-year trend line. With price at 2335.xx at 11:53 AM as I type, bears have little to nothing left in the tank. In last notes of 9-2, I stated that bulls should tag 2367 before NY AFTERMARKET CLOSE (5 hours from now). This is still base case RIGHT NOW but I may have to update this view within the next hour.
Warning - This is a "continuously updating" forecast for FX:IDC/ICE XAUUSD spot gold ticker, limited only by the time I have to continuously update it. In my humbled opinion, price action acts like a girl you are dating that is three marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is a deception that few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else with your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.2% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, don't be a victim, trade defensively, EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make, so be aware!
Details - Continuing from DRAFT 9-2, gold ignored "consensus expectations to hold gray line". Absent more missile attacks between Israel/Iran, bears took this opportunity to push price under 43-year trend line. With price at 2335.xx at 11:53 AM as I type, bears have little to nothing left in the tank. In last notes of 9-2, I stated that bulls should tag 2367 before NY AFTERMARKET CLOSE (5 hours from now). This is still base case RIGHT NOW but I may have to update this view within the next hour.
Warning - This is a "continuously updating" forecast for FX:IDC/ICE XAUUSD spot gold ticker, limited only by the time I have to continuously update it. In my humbled opinion, price action acts like a girl you are dating that is three marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is a deception that few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else with your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.2% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, don't be a victim, trade defensively, EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make, so be aware!
Uwaga
Uwaga
Uwaga
Uwaga
12:21, 2329.xx as I am typing... we are about to bottom now a) so pay attention to it
b) it should be between 2323-2327
c) my call is closer to 2327 because bears wasted too much time already
Uwaga
Uwaga
12:30, 2331.xx, I REALLY THINK WE SHOULD TAG 2367.XX when it moves upa) BUT I don't know if could be done by 5 PM ET (or NY aftermarket close)
b) I would think that bulls could get there during Tokyo session tonight
c) so there's that
Uwaga
Uwaga
12:39 hold on a second, I'm not surea) but IF WE haven't
b) it should be close bc the hard swing up is forming
c) but NOT READY, so in theory, you could still dip to 27
Uwaga
12:57 PM ET 2329.xx, and just tag 28.xx minutes a couple of minutes ago...d) so we are looking for a sudden counter trend move to 2337 to establish bottom is in
e) we need that move while the bottom setup is still live
f) otherwise we get into another type of bottom, and it can get more complicated
Uwaga
1:10 PM 34.XX, got enough juice to make it to 38, that's all we needa) and momentum should hit 42-43, which opens the door to 51-52 and higher
b) bulls are favored here and need to act like it
c) miss this window and it can get complicated very fast
Uwaga
d) 1:17 PM 2330.XX, becareful heree) if bears win this window, they will push for 2327, 2323, 2318, and 2312
f) and that could happen all at once not gradually
Uwaga
2:05 PM ET 2327.XXg) as warned....
h) but bulls still are not dead
Uwaga
i) in my humbled opinion, this should be the low j) it's really hard to imagine this going to under because we are stretched vol-wise already
k) at same time, let me check equities first
Uwaga
l) yeah, both GDX and GDXJ hit their lows early after market openm) I saw it just hit 25.xx
n) but NQ AND ES bottomed 3 hours ago...
o) I have to believe that this is the bottom
p) so I'm leveraged long with 2324.5 stop
Uwaga
q) 2:49 PM ET, raise stop to 2327.5Uwaga
r) in my car, I don't like why this is taking so long near the bottom s) staying this long down there will move the trends in a big way
t) THIS IS A PROBLEM... will add notes tonight
Uwaga
3:03 PM, I'm going to take another stab at this.Uwaga
3:38, out while I'm ahead 2329.40a) there's a problem here
b) and I can't explain it
c) it's not quite obvious as you may think ...
d) if you think we are going under
e)
Uwaga
e) I'll add notes tonight when I get backUwaga
4:10 PM ET, another nasty daily bar that implies one more lowa) but price is already at max pain vs trend map
b) so obviously the bear call is 2310-2314 before rebounding
c) I just don't believe that you could go under in this setup during a bull market
d) BUT price has not taken up any rebound setups
e) so I have conviction that bottom is in but not enough conviction to stay long
f) when price closed that way and is not showing any interest in rebounding in aftermarket
Uwaga
g) so what do I think I know?h) I see 2400 on Thursday
i) I see 2377 on Wednesday
j) which means 2360 should get hit in 20 hours or less
k) and it's 2329.52 as I type
Uwaga
l) for whatever reasons, the big money has liked to show up last 20 minutes of NY aftermarketm) so I really want to see 2343 get hit
n) that not getting hit here is not a small problem for overall plans to June 12 FOMC
Uwaga
o) let me put it this way, I was obviously ready for 2324 to get hit todayp) and stated that early
q) but I was not ready for 2329 to stick until now
r) what that really means is...
s) there seems to be 5 different mini cycles of price action from April to early June
t) and we just finished the second one:
Uwaga
u) no, 6 not 5 so there's 4 moreUwaga
v) 2326.xx, so NOT A SMALL PROBLEMUwaga
w) ok to answer Fair Value Gap at 2297 question: x) I see it much simpler:
Uwaga
Uwaga
Uwaga
a) in chart above, yellow route base caseb) blue route second place
c) yellow route is a very annoying development
d) why?
e) TIMING, it's everything
Uwaga
f) ok need to clear this up, the yellow route is NOT A MASSIVE FAVORITEg) it's like 55/45 or less
h) why? because price is WAY OUT OF POSITION VS trend
i) so this one of those things that isn't far from a coin flip
j) but it has to be the base case because of statistics
k) I am not happy with the call as a whole, because intermediate trends DO NOT AGREE
l) which means if it moves down I don't know how it all agrees
m) but for the incoming 16-20 hours, 2288 has to be base case now
n) this is because we deal with the NOW FIRST
o) and the LATER LATER
Uwaga
6:01 PM ET 2329.XX no way, blue route is favorite until disprovenp) the vol markers are in consistent with LRC waves
q) so base case is still close to chart at top
Uwaga
r) so RIGHT NOW, 2343 should be nextUwaga
s) but the stop here should be like 27.75Uwaga
t) or 28.25Uwaga
6:33, 2327.XX, I can't call the move down.a) bc the math doesn't make any sense
b) and if goes down I don't know what should happen after that
c) it just DOES NOT FIT
d) so I'll shut the hell up until I can prove something
Uwaga
6:56, 2330.xx, I think bottom's in and 2360s tomorrow.e) but I can't prove it
f) I gotta run
Uwaga
8:55 PM ET 2330.XX 1) still can't prove it
2) let's just wait til we have something
3) right now we don't have anything
Uwaga
9:46 PM ET 2309.XX yellow route after all4) found out from my phone a few minutes ago
5) with this one, could only catch if I was in front of a screen
6) with that said target is 2288 of course
Uwaga
7) first time target is 90 minutes outUwaga
8) 9:53, 2296.XX maybe not that longUwaga
9) 9:54 , 2299.xx spiraling, next 20 minutes criticalUwaga
10) for reference, next time if I post 2 optionsa) and a move happen while I'm not there
b) assume it's one of the two (which should be obvious)
Uwaga
11) can we drop to 2275 and be done with this please?12) don't have all night to watch
Uwaga
13) if it doesn't do it here, it should be one more similar looking stair case down14) so 2306-2310? and then another similar looking drop
15) that is what the pattern says
Uwaga
16) 10:08 PM ET, 2309.XX, there's 2310, I'm kind of tired tonight17) drank a bit too much for no reason... so Im not sharp right now
18) can't do any math so I gotta check out here
19) but be aware, that it's VERY UNLIKELY TO HAVE BOTTOMED
20) unless you AT THE VERY LEAST TAGGED 2292
21) my humbled opinion says 2288
Uwaga
22) at the same time... 23) this bounce is really incomplete as I type
Uwaga
24) so with the caveat that I am under the influence25) I'm going to call it 2319 then 2292
Uwaga
26) take that with some salt ok? 27) I'm going to bed
Uwaga
28) and of course, new draft tomorrow if I have timeUwaga
29) yeah, you guys are on your own tonightUwaga
11:21 PM ET, 2301.XX, Thanks to Maverick0174...1) he asked sometime last hour "are you ready for 2271?"
2) I didn't see it until now...
3) but I don't know if that's "obvious"
4) getting under 2288 is still difficult
5) but once under that, 2271 is the logical conclusion
6) I'm back to bed early
7) got a busy week
8) have a good night
Uwaga
9) and it's also not obvious, if it gets hit...10) that it would be today...
11) and by today, I mean tomorrow (Tuesday, bc it's still Monday night here)
Uwaga
12) I think it would be Wednesday...13) but whatever, good night
Uwaga
14) meanwhile, I started this post with 3600/480015) bc I saw how difficult 4800 would be
16) it's obvious now, that it should be 3600/4200
17) because whether we bottom at 2292, 2288, or 2271
18) same difference vs May high, June low, July high, and August high
19) and by the time we get to June 12th FOMC...
20) it maybe completely obvious that it will be 3600/3800
Uwaga
4/23, 12:32 AM ET, for that 6-month time frame question:a) my personal base case this until tonight...
b) was the entry should be between May NFP release which is June 7th and
c) June FOMC, which is June 12th
d) so is not so much what price but what time (so 6/7-6/12)
e) this is because of the overall pattern to gold's bull market
f) I thought I had this pattern wrapped up...
g) but tonight's drop under 2300 has me worried
h) bc the main reason that I refused to accept the drop to 2288 as base case
i) even though I said that, and then changed my mind
j) was that had the entire route through next 21 months mapped out
k) all versions of it.... over 4200
l) now, it's going to get annoying
m) so I don't trust my perception right now
Uwaga
n) typo on j) ... that "I" had the entire route ...o) basically I have an answer that I don't trust
b) so I have no answer
Uwaga
7:48 AM, I have a bottom signal, 2291 was pretty decent. This is not very strong, but a real signal.Uwaga
7:55 AM, so a temporary signal...a) last night, I eyeballed the move as 2319 and 2292
b) the bounce - twice - was 2315 and eventually bottomed 2291
c) but I also said I saw how we could get to 2271, but I thought breaking 2288 ...
d) is going to be difficult
f) so.. at 7:58 AM, I don't love this temporary bottom signal
g) trend waves well organized, but still have not made the turn
h) so any bounce would have a difficult time getting above 2319-2321
Uwaga
i) and would soon have have to test 2288 to move for 2269Uwaga
j) my problem with this movek) original base case was 2275 on 4/16-18 after the 2432 high
l) war news got in the way twice
m) so this process is going to take an extra 7 days at the end
n) vs the 6/12 schedule, this is "NOT A SMALL PROBLEM" for me bc I have to "sync" my thesis
o) if I can't sync it, then it's just a vague idea that will be "behind the curve"
p) this mean I can only catch moves live with no base case
q) that's the difference
Uwaga
r) right this second, I don't know:1) if we really get another low (2269), even tho it makes sense
2) or just sideways to 229X again
3) let's figure that out first
4) so we know what May rally should look like
Uwaga
5) 8:39, trend engine is calling for 2335,6) this seems to be saying low is in
7) can't disagree with it
Uwaga
8:55 AM, 2308.XX CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.1) with the caveat that my notes are only as good as my ability to update them ...
2) and for this week especially bc we are in a middle of a move down and I don't really have a base case
3) trend engine has a setup for 2333 and ...
Uwaga
THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS DRAFT 10-1: 2333 AND 2222:
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