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4800 DRAFT 8-2, NEXT STEP SHOULD STILL BE 2275

Introduction - This is the follow up to 8-1 and today's strong finish above 2380.

Details - If I wanted to do macro, I wouldn't try this hard. I've been long since 1610, and I have the receipts. I still have 4800 in the title, I am not bearish gold overall. But daily price action is an entirely different animal. At 4:41 PM ET and 2381.34, gold has NOT demonstrated that "bottom is in". Will add notes soon.

Uwaga

4:44 PM ET, Pretty good close, but will it follow through?
a) it is NOT AT ALL OBVIOUS THAT IT WILL
b) and let's start with the basics:

Uwaga

c) first, my calls are always based on current odds reflected in OVERALL PRICE ACTION
d) I am not that guy that "chooses" one outcome then LIVE AND DIE on that hill
e) when facts change, I change
f) remember, at 2344 recovering from 2324, I said then that you still have to watch out for bulls' comeback with red spike route
g) that route calls for 2397
h) bulls have hit all their targets EXCEPT 2397
i) and from the standpoint of price action, bulls have not "done enough" to avoid a trip to 2275, or at least 2303
j) before we get into that these are the same lines from last chart with added channel

Uwaga

Uwaga

a) last time we hit top side this channel, we checked the median afterwards
b) I am not saying it HAS TO THIS TIME, just showing you what trend engine says should happen or other wise
c) here's that yellow line:

Uwaga

d) so breaking that recent line from 2324 NOT A BIG DEAL
e) but breaking that line without tagging 2397 is yellow card
f) as in soccer, NOT A RED CARD, but warning of failure to follow through
g) follow through with WHAT?
h) follow through with 2397 and its natural extension at 2410-2412
i) which leads me to this move's binary moment of truth
j) if bulls are legit strong here
k) they either
1) take red path to 2410
2) take A NEUTRAL PATH TO AVOID BLUE ROUTE TO 2303/2275 on Wednesday
3) so in a sense, bulls should BE FAVORED TO FOLLOW THROUGH, RIGHT?
4) bc as long as they avoid blue path correction, they pull through SOONER OR LATER

Uwaga

5) so what's the problem?
6) consider:

Uwaga

a) I chart above, price has a number of opportunities to escape of this "down ward spiral)
b) created y the Friday's price action
c) it has chosen TO TAKE THE LAST POSSIBLE ROUTE to escape from i
d) while it's possible to execute, this is in fact a much weaker position than
e) any of the previous red arrow markers
f) what that means in this scenario the odds of blue wave turning down
g) "in sync" with the three waves on top of it, is NOT LOW AT AT ALL
h) where the black arrow is pointing at is the divergence at midnight
i) if there's enough support, price will escape the spiral
j) AND IT DOES NOT HAVE TO TAKE RED ROUTE TO ESCAPE, for example:

Uwaga

k) so it takes yellow route AND IT WOULD BE FINE
l) so in theory, bulls should be favored because bears have the burden of proof
m) they HAVE TO PROVE it
n) so why would say "STILL 2275 NEXT?"
o) because historic pattern and trend says this is overwhelming 8-2+ outcome
p) THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL BE TRUE THIS TIME
q) but I have to go with the what the numbers say has happened before
r) and all it's saying is this:
s ) in this setup, assume price will not break the pattern UNTIL IT DOES
t) and that comes at around midnight tonight
u) and again to be clear, I don't have a problem changing my mind when facts change
v) but based numbers the facts HAVE NOT CHANGED ENOUGH

Uwaga

5:21 PM or spike to 2400 15 minutes into aftermarket will do it too
a) it will swing the odds in bull's favor completely
b) but besides red route, where it goes next after 2413?
c) back to the top of the channel which is 2450? o something like that

Uwaga

d) no 2440

Uwaga

e) so be aware, if you think I'm bearish gold, you're being silly
f) who else on TrandingView has 4800 in the title?
g) but we are not talking macro strategy
h) we are talking daily tactics, that's an entirely different game
i) at the same time, we HAVE TO RECOGNIZE WHEN FACTS HAVE CHANGED
j) so that's what NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR THAT RECOGNITION
k) otherwise, remember what I said about the bears
l) when they come back, they come back for everything

Uwaga

m) meanwhile the reason for the mirror image seems to be that
n) WHEN 1 ROUTE IS OBVIOUS (in the sense of what must happen for a target to get hit)
o) then odds favor hitting either that route, or ITS MIRROR IMAGE

Uwaga

p) so that's what we have here, a binary mirror image outcome

Uwaga

5:40 PM, you know how I say I hate late moves?
a) bc they always get rejected
b) and retrace the other direction?
c) not that this counts, bc this methodology from a 18 months ago
d) but this this is NOT ON TIME VS WHERE I HAD IT ORIGINALLY

MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6, I'M TOO SLOW

Uwaga

e) remember, I called fed pivot in SEPTEMBER 2022, this AFTER THE FACT
f) just tired of digging up old charts
g) but yeah, we going up and up
h) the only is WHEN AND HOW FAR
i) I would like to push up that final target again
j) but it looks like if anything, I have to cut that 4800 one more time
k) raising it again, requires a small paradigm change
l) but a small paradigm is an oxymoron, right?

Uwaga

6:52 PM ET, Nothing interesting until 11 PM ET.
a) insofar this pattern is playing bullishly
b) but the bulls have not shut that door
c) I say that because on my end I see "the way the bears come back"
d) so today, bulls took the last possible route for their comeback
e) that's on a bigger time scale compared to this bear situation
f) for bears tonight, that last possible route is around 11 PM to midnight

Uwaga

7:12 PM ET 86.53 based on current reading of this bulls should win
a) and it should not be possible for bears to get back to 2350 by 4 AM ET
b) we will see, yes we will

Uwaga

8:52 PM ET, maybe 2 hours or less from that divergence in chart at top
a) bulls are supposed to win this spot
b) especially with Israeli response to Iran's missile barrage "imminent"
c) no doubt if such a headline hit the news wire, we would be heading for 2400, 2412, and 2440
d) following red path right?
e) there shouldn't be any last second Israeli delay or hesitation

Uwaga

f) unless the reality of U.S. politics supersede such a decision
g) wherein the Biden administration assesses that getting involved IN ANOTHER WAR...
h) is not a good decision 7 months out

Uwaga

9:10 PM ET, 2381.19, first sign all night price moving to bear route
a) be aware that it's still early
b) and the market maybe waiting intently on news wires

Uwaga

10:52 PM ET, looks like a move for 2397 but it is not obvious.
a) every now and then I get into one of these
b) where it's past the point of decision and the move does not look decisive
c) so if price wanted to move for 2397, it's doing it some what late
d) as if there is not enough real interest to make the FOLLOWING move to 2410+
e) so first, as long as it sideways bulls can take 2275 off the table and at least delay the move for 2303
f) second the failure to move aggressively for 2397 early ..
g) implies a ceiling is forming at 2400
h) and once there, it's not obvious what happens next
i) remember, you can go sideways too
j) it's just usually not something you "forecast" bc it is implied once you reach a decision point..
k) there is a decision
l) sometimes, you don't get get a decision but lack of a decision
m) so price moves, but with no real momentum in either direction
n) until a stronger pattern forms
o) so that's where we are at 10:59 PM ET AND 2386.04

Uwaga

11:02 PM ET my read of the Iran-Israel situation is that it's already over, the market just needs to realize it as a whole.
a) why?
b) bc you don't send 100 missiles and drones and then tell the entire world you're going to do it
c) if you really want your targets to get hit
d) Iran literally telegraphed this "attack" in advance to give the Isrealites enough time to shoot half them down, the ones that "made it there"
e) the other half didn't make it there
f) this doesn't mean that they can't cause harm, it just meant they did not want to
g) but still had to do for show
h) at the same time, to shoot 100 drones and missiles with the intention TO NOT cause harm ...
i) is a demonstration of accuracy in itself that could mean opposite should under the right circumstances
j) meanwhile, Pentagon immediately stated that Israel would not receive U.S. support for any offensive opperations
k) and while Israel declared they would respond, also stated any response would be ...
l) in coordination with the U.S.
m) and while it's not publicly stated, U.S. policy towards the Middle East has been....
n) maintaining a balance of power between the four major power centers in that area for quite sometime
o) those four being Iran, Israel, Saudia Arabia, and most importantly but less publically, Turkey

Uwaga

p) so despite price's move up 6.5 pts from 2380 in the last hour and change
q) I do not see this getting past 2397 any time soon, if it even makes it there
r) my theory on late price actions stands, that a late move will end early
s) and face a surprise reversal
t) when exactly?
u) there's not enough "short term vol" here for me stay up and do the math
w) so base case is?
1) failure to hit 2397
2) eventual surprise reversal down
3) but since it's ALSO late forthe bearish curves
4) there's going to be a lot SIDEWAYS involved in either direction
5) until a more obvious /bigger pattern forms
6) that's a wrap for tonight and this post as well
7) will add more if I wake up early
8) there's just nothing incoming that I see worth waking up early FOR
9) so good night

Uwaga

11:30 PM, if you play the chart at top, it does LOOK like it's on time for bull route.
a) but that's because I placed route too late to WHERE IT SHOULD BE
b) based on the trend maps for the move, it is without a doubt late
c) especially for such a small time frame
d) an if it can't hit 97 then what?
e) 94, 95 or 96 pick one

Uwaga

f) or the last 6 hours gold has been stronger than silver
g) so I don't even know it can hit 2393
h) Im going to bed

Uwaga

11:39 PM, I would make a new draft, but there's not a lot here to DRAFT FOR
a) the bulls are approaching a ceiling with weak momentum
b) while the bears are still waiting on a setup
c) meaning waste of time until something more interesting
d) my instinct still expect a bearish surprise to setup but not soon
e) so there it is

Uwaga

11:48 PM ET AND 2387.XX, to be clear
a) bulls have taken 2275 off the table, BUT BARELY
b) how much is barely?
c) 2278-2280 still on the table

Uwaga

12:19 AM, 85.XX, be careful here bulls.
a) this look is not a good look right now
b) lack of conviction could turn into reversal
c) so watch out
d) and I'm lights out

Uwaga

12:47, 84.xx, failure to move up means test of red line currently at 2371 ish

Uwaga

a) no it's 68
b) but by time price get down there, it would be 71 when it hits
c) in theory

Uwaga

d) Im too tired to do the math on when exactly the "sideways is done
e) so Im going to sleep again and see you in the morning

Uwaga

8:26 PM NO TIME RIGHT NOW
1) just woke up
2) there's two routes AND THEY BOTH GO TO 2280
3) one bounces to 2380s again then goes down
4) and one keeps going down like bear path in chart at top
5) I don't have enough time to add details
6) but my overall view has not changed, and that is continued correction

Uwaga

TYPO, 8:26 AM NOT PM.

Uwaga

8:41 AM ET FROM MY PHONE:

Uwaga

A) so overnight price tested same red line since Sunday night
B) it's holding
C) and base case is it should hold to make a rectangular looking top
D) and then break down LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW

Uwaga

E) so we need a new DRAFT AND I DONT HAVE ANY TIME TO DRAFT AND EDIT
F) but be aware that the second place outcome is CONTINUATION OF PATTERN IN CHART AT TOP
G) I don't have enough time to thoroughly handicap odds
H) so I am expecting a THIRD TOP on limited information

Uwaga

10:19 AM, 69.xx so it looks we are "DOWN SHIFTING"

Uwaga

a) earlier I said there were two routes
b) the route where we move up first (which became base case in chart above)
c) and the second route is about the same as bear route in chart at top

Uwaga

d) both ultimately aiming for 2280 (or lower)

Uwaga

e) at 9:15 AM it looked like a third top was buiding
f) right now at 10:23 it just dropped another 5 pts in the last 3 minutes
g) 66.xx as I type
h) so base case now basically bear route in chart at top

Uwaga

i) this is why I added that "be aware that 2nd place outcome" was continuation of that pattern
j) it just didn't become "decisive" until the last 30-40 minutes

Uwaga

k) if you replay chart at top price action overall has been bear curve" BUT STRONGER
l) meaning price has been LATE FOR BEAR ROUTE
m) hence, I chose "third top route" because when price is late...
n) there is usually a surprise reversal (in this case, would've been upwards first)
o) but at 2368.xx as I type IT SEEMS LIKE WE ARE PLAYING CATCH UP TO THAT original route
p) but catch up would mean GETTING DOWN FASTER TO MAKE UP FOR LOST TIME

Uwaga

q) so here's what looks like for the rest of NY session:

Uwaga

1) in chart above, so yellow is the one I chose earlier
2) blue is the 2nd place, bear route continuation
3) it seems like we are doing that
4) but we are in the "ugly part" where trends disagree
5) the odds that it is blue or an in between version of blue and yellow is about the same
6) where a 5-point swing in the right place would add 4-6 hours of MORE SIDEWAYS
7) so the whole crux of this issue IS WHEN IS 2337-2340 going to hit again
8) if blue route, that should be BEFORE NY CLOSE and a close would be 43-48
9) if gray route then it's slower and you get there 10 PM ET tonight
10)

Uwaga

10) so that's where you are
11) if I pick one, it can be the other one in an hour or two
12 ) so just be aware that is the "realm of outcomes now to tonight"

Uwaga

13) meanwhile you can also view it as simply breaking each of those lines again
14) it broke red and blue, now in between until it moves down for gray line
15) same lines since Sunday night
16) but because you are in an area where trends disagree
17) meaning some going up, some going down, some turning up , some turning down
18) I said late last night that there would be "a lot of sideways in either direction"
19) this is the process in which trends "get in agreement" for a bigger move

Uwaga

11:12, 2389, I saw the spike. Driving, can't add anything for 15 minutes

;:

Uwaga

11:45, 238w.xx I don't see news release, or news wire or Fed speech in the last hour.
a) so support came at 63 and broke trend at 2376, tagged 92?
b) long story short, it's a new setup if it sticks (and should be respected BC IT'S NO NEWS, SO IT MEANS MORE)
c) it's not obvious yet that it will or it wont
d) i'm editing right now

Uwaga

e) so at 8:41 from my phone I saw the spike to 90-91 (the first route up with rectangular top)
f) if it went directly there, I wouldn't though anything of it
g) but it didn't, so the shift in that lead to the yellow route, which lead to blue and gray
h) but going to 63 and back to almost 93 is a different move
i) that means bulls are not ready to go down
j) if this is true, then they need stay above 2380 to prevent the trends from down shifting
k) and it's approaching a critical point with a 100pt down if bulls do not stop it
l) and right now 2385.xx, they are saying they are going to stop it
m) so that's what is going right now
n) and the fact that they doing it on no news/speech/economic report is evidence strength
o) all they need is follow through which is what trend map editing is for
p) so right now bulls have the edge and aiming for 2397+ again
q) I'll add notes soon

Uwaga

12:28, POWELL'S SPEECH IS IN 45 MINUTES OR SO, AND HERE ARE WHERE THINGS STAND:

Uwaga

a) as much as bulls have done since 2324 yesterday...
b) the door to under 2280 is still open AND APPROACHING COMPLETION
c) meaning all the trends are in place to make that move happen within 36 hours or less from here
d) in chart above, THE RED LINE IS STILL THE CRITICAL ONE
e) if bulls lose this lien later this afternoon, it's a bad sign
f) so IF THIS LINE BREAKS AGAIN, bulls should have one more fight left in them
g) to prevent 2280
h) but if this lines breaks twice, odds fully favor a complete bear comeback

Uwaga

i) and like last night, because the bears' route is very specific, the bulls' route to change outcomes...
j) is once again, a mirror image
k) but unlike last night, where bulls let up and gave the bears an opening for a surprise reversal...
l) it is unlikely to happen this time around
m) and bears would have to wait until 2445 OR MUCH LATER to create another window of opportunity

Uwaga

n) furthermore, bulls only have to hold the red line to tomorrow night to destroy the bear setup
o) so at 12:44 PM ET and now 2392.xx an inflection point is here in the next four hours
p) I'm just uneasy that of course, it's a POWELL speech
q) I don't like when things line up like a big coincidence like that

Uwaga

s) as last night, their targets after 97 is 2413, and watch their recent trend lines for that
t) but also watch the time between 1:15 PM to 2:15, I don't know how long these speeches are supposed to be
u) but just watch out for shenanigans
v) the reason is that if this speech comes 10 hours later, the bulls' momentum would shut the door and kill bears' comeback
w) so be aware of that while the next targets up would be 2413, 2433, 2445

Uwaga

1:21 PM ET, 2386.xx, JUST USE STRAIGHT LINES FOR RISK MANAGEMENT HERE
a) that's the only effective tool for that this type of a situation
b) IN EITHER DIRECTION

Uwaga

c) and as always, THE SMALLEST BAR SIZE, so you can respond quickly

Uwaga

d) during this speech, bulls favored 84 and higher
e) but if you see dripping under 84, watch out for rug pull

Uwaga

1:27 PM ET, OBVIOUSLY THIS DRAFT IS NO GOOD ANYMORE, MAKING NEW ONE NOW
a) I'll start drafting when Powell's done
b) and maybe get it out tonight
c) have a good one

Uwaga

1:33 PM ET, I gotta run, but be careful here. It might seem like 2337 is far away. But the Fed has all kinds of tricks. Just use straight line lines to discipline trend until Powell's done.

Uwaga

a) for chart above, is it overnow?
b) is the nightmare over?
c) Powell should have his own movie, Jason-style

Uwaga

a) especially if you love to scalp
b) pay for micro bars, it will make you 2-3 times the better trader
c) mean while at 2389.xx as I type, it's not over until it's over
d) but once the speech is done, the line in the sand should be 80, 81 instead of 84
e) which means that door is getting ready to shut for bears's comeback

Uwaga

a) for chart above, bulls need to break this new line and be done with it
b) if price gets crushed under the previous line
c) it WILL GET UGLY VERY QUICK

Uwaga

d) I gotta run

Uwaga

4800 DRAFT 8-3, SHOULD NEXT STEP STILL BE 2275?

Uwaga

THIS POST HAS ENDED, CLICK ON CHART ABOVE TO GO 8-3, ONE MORE STAB AT 2275.

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