Reading a couple of articles on Gold. I feel the general consensus is Death to Dollar & Strength on Gold. I feel the Global pandemic has shifted the normal correlation across the entire market and possibly every instrument.
If you look at the spike in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, dealing gold a series of setbacks. This is far from over...
Coupled with the geopolitical risk component that has held up gold for decades has almost vanished too, with the shiny metal falling instead of rising from a recent flare-up in Middle East tensions.
Things are not what they seem.
From a technical standpoint only; Main swing from the 2016 low has made a 1.618 spike and pulled back to the 100% Level (1) before shooting up to the 2.618.
Secondly - the 1.618 level on the smaller swing move is around the $1,655 level. We could see this level.
Step up to the monthly level and we can see an extended Regression channel - touch the outer channel.
Supported by monthly Stochastic pointing down.
This shows the levels of trapped traders - currently in Long positions - If you look left, we could see a repeat of this last spike down.
Xau (Gold) Strength is also falling still and has room even to the 50% level as per the strength indicator.
Drop down to the daily & we can see the price has broken the X-Trend structure to the Bearish side. As well as the XAU strength being less than the DXY in the short term.
So in the short term, we could expect some more moves to the downside.
A potential push up to the trend around 1,850 could be the current roof until the move down completes.
Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Komentarz
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shorter timeframe - seeing inside the move.
Komentarz
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- There's the dip, as expected. We might get to see a touch of the weekly structure. before the 1,850 touch to the upside.
Komentarz
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Straight into the weekly structure -
Komentarz
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some interesting structural sitting below, 1,669 and 1,664. Stochastic still has room for a further dip, especially on the higher Timeframes.
Komentarz
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Bearish momentum has started to ease. But it's currently range-bound. Wait for confirmation before going Long here.
If one gets at risk to get too complacent with the current narrative (debasing fiat, gold siver go up) and likewise positions (long), this well crafted idea gives you at least the reminder to think very good about your long gold (and silver) positions: why you are in it, what your incentives are to be engaged long. So that's a big thumbs up.
That said, I still am quite confident about my Long positions in Silver and Gold (miners).
Mayfair_Ventures
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@W0lfRAider, 100% Long as a whole - I've currently held silver for over 15 years. Took some profits at 40 (wish I kept for 50, well 49 and change.) and picked up a load of physical a couple of days after Bin Laden was killed. When it dropped a ton. So Yes 100% long, but seeing what is happening in the market as a whole. I don't think the average short-term trade is purely straight up as one would imagine with DXY dropping and a potential stock market crash. It will go long as a whole for sure. Buy the dip as they say.
Hmmm, this is interesting we are bull but this analysis is really good!
Mayfair_Ventures
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@FlyDownX, I'm Bullish overall - But I am a long-term trader. I've held physical silver and gold for 15 years. But in trading terms, we see a dip and a collection of liquidity, especially with the current structure of SPX and DXY. 👍
Mayfair_Ventures
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@FlyDownX, it's now showing some good signs of rejection Get ready for the bull move 👍
OVER-THE-COUNTER
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@Mayfair_Ventures, What do you think about MACD and RSI?? Previously i didn't mind it, but with this yield situation a touch to 1670 its not impossible maybe...
Mayfair_Ventures
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@OVER-THE-COUNTER, MACD can be a great trigger indicator when combined with other strategies as a whole. But MACD, Stochastic and RSI are pretty comparable as a whole. I think 1,670 is another key level. But this will depend largely on the DXY move. The Elliott wave weekly shows it's still a little more downside. However, this past year the correlation has been off more than usual. So it's very wishy washy as a whole. Hence purely focused on Gold. 1,670 would be the bottom of this weekly structure and has liquidity there. Retail sentiment all long, so more downside before a decent move long.
That said, I still am quite confident about my Long positions in Silver and Gold (miners).