What a beauty this year! For a moment I thought I missed the opening bell.
So many traders still hang on to their UJ trades that it's taking ages to shake them off. The market doesn't stop, the market is relentless.
They are going to crash soon. All three. After which JPY will rocket. Doesn't look good for Japan. You may wonder how it will affect the world economy. I think Trump might be our almighty saviour.
If he manages to pump up US economy enough, it might balance it out.
This event, this UJ seasonality, this year could be very much a ripple of a massive economic shock in the past, mainly affecting the US and Japan. Yes, I'm thinking this is a WWII aftershock... Then suddenly upcoming recession is a bliss in a sense...
Zlecenie aktywne
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Imminent, I told you ;)
Komentarz
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USD power reduced with every cycle that aligns. However, you would think to invest but (the cycles are not completely aligned so) it can shoot up instantly, really dangerous for investors not aware of this risk.
Komentarz
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Brokers will hide behind the clause of slippage if it shoots up instantly without any data points. We have to be patient and wait until this risk no longer exist as it can not be mitigated at this point. Risk will eliminate itself as soon buying pressure reduces.
Zlecenie aktywne
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Funny, imminent I said in September. It's now November 30. Unbelievable how speculation has ruled the market this year. I would think that this year there are simply less large speculators on the market, less institutions. Now I think of it, where are all the long running trends we had the years before, the ones of which you could see when the big boys go in and out from the trend because of the large volumes being moved.
we perfectly see where after 2 month we are on usdcad on usdjpy :)
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@mantasg, Yes you're right. Now it is clear that the market was not ready yet before. Now it is .. fingers crossed :)
mantasg
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@ArnaudKleinveld, why you think its ready now? Because there is no single hint for now at this time that its going to reverse daily trend 4h trend or weekly trend. Just interesting
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@mantasg, since August I looked out for signals which I remembered from last year and the year before. Lately I also narrowed it down to USD bearish cycles periods and every time I saw windows of opportunity being blocked by sudden targeted high USD buying volumes. However, this cycle period the macroeconomic forces have overpowered any targeted USD buying until this moment. After this experience I do admit I am now more careful with using words as imminent :)
mantasg
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@ArnaudKleinveld, Well said. I personally learned over many years that every resistance have to be broken and if something becomes very well seen like eurchf peg was to 1.20 big money will buy/sell in that wall why because it unlimited liquidity you open any size trade and you know that there will be someone who on that wall where you can settle position . Market always moves to the liquidity no matter its stops or walls its dynamic of market more sellers more higher we go more buyers more lower we go this is how market makers makes money. News is not important and sentiment those people who move billions need liquidity nice example are now when surprise statement moves market against overall trend and more likely when all that liquidity will be accumulated we will see continuation of trend it just my expierence
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@mantasg, I agree, the underlying macroeconomic trend will prevail. Also interesting will be to see the higher than normal accumulated selling pressure topped up with months of raging bulls suddenly turning bearish.
mantasg
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@ArnaudKleinveld, it will fall like stone those guys end trend most likely in two ways like gbpusd after brexit crash market many pips same was btcusd up or range for a longer term like eurusd for 2 years after drop of 40 percent or eurusd recent top above 1.20 months or range market they never end trend so simple it have to be some big economic changes like was with BOJ when UJ pumped. Commercials can even hedge they profit in yen because there was no ask in order book but those moves happens one time a decade.