Comparing USDCHF (UC) with history we may assume the same direction will be followed except there may be a shift between cycles which may speed up of delay some steps. In this case we see a delay of the first big fall of UC, roughly 400 pips, in our current time.
The 400 pips change will then also need to be applied to one of the other members of the USDCHF/CHFJPY/USDJPY triangle. It may be partly UJ and CJ, unfortunately I had no time to find out but it would be good to see a confirmation first before any trade is et up. Positioning of UJ makes good candidate for a change of that size to be applied...
Love your chart I think you have missed a few more indicators, trendlines and random drawings :(
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@jamesasmith, I agree, it was still a bit draft. I have updated it today, see tradingview.com/chart/y67Vi1Tb I have included short cycles and you can see that a super bearish moment awaits USDCHF shortly
lapin_eliott
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i do not trust at all history and repetition in trading however what is backing up your idea is that a quite straightforward analysis of eurchf and eurusd short term gives usdchf=eurchf/eurusd=0.96 exactly the same target as yours if we believe in theses cycles. so it seems anyway that 0.96 is a attractor point that definitely needs to be reached to bring equilibrium before deciding any continuation or reversal
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, It's indeed straightforward because within each of the triangles the mathematical equation always has to be valid. So if one pair changes, another has to change as well. All pairs are member of multiple triangles and can therefore also affect other pairs in other triangles. In another analysis I found out that CAD was corrected down 15 pips only because a change was going to be applied that would bring CAD back on the same level. This happens all the time, the market is moving prices in position to apply a big change. I've seen it prepare UJ Seasonality for weeks. Actually it's every year like that. Traders call it consolidation but in fact for this process it is moving prices just to be ready for the big UJ drop. The market is of course also moving price based on supply and demand and that happens in parallel to UJ Seasonality corrections.
lapin_eliott
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@ArnaudKleinveld, have you changed your view on usdcad ? my computations give me that the equilibrium are around 1.29 and or 1.265, i do not expect more downside than 1.265, it would be irreleveant with what we can expect from cadjpy, usdjpy, eurcad, eurusd.
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, The focus on the series of events with most of my research is USDJPY (UJ), that is because it's the currency pair of the two largest economies, and therefore not easy to move. USD oscillation cycle is due to reverse back down but it has been systematically been postponed or cancelled. This particular analysis is focussed on a fall of USDCHF as part of UJ Seasonality, it has a large cycle and expected to drop 400 pips of which it has done approximately 130, so another 270 to go. UC is in this context interesting for predicting UJ's move and magnitude. CAD is due a rally since 2016 and it will probably flash crash at the time I'm writing with USD and JPY, hopefully not stay too long down there and perhaps rally back against the USD (UJ) and JPY (CJ).
lapin_eliott
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@ArnaudKleinveld, there is a consensus i have been discussing with many serious guy about an imminent rally of CAD, the big remaining problem is that half are predicting before this rally a move to 1.35 first then a rally, the other half is for an immediate rally. are you in the category seeing a move to 1.35 first ?