Here's a quick video simply about the long term trend for the cryptocurrency market. Short and simple.
This is not financial advice. Just some observations and things I'm paying attention to at the moment for an indication of direction. This is for speculative and educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
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Testing the long term trend yet again:
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If we break down here, I think we could fall immediately to $179-180B (next horizontal support and bottom of bearish channel. This would align with my "slower growth" scenario, but it would be ugly. Impatient bulls down't want this to happen, but there are some patient bulls who do. We'll see who wins.
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There is no moving average support below here for alts, so the ideal bullish scenario would be that a break below the trendline is short-lived and quickly bought.
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Bitcoin is now back in the bearish channel (as I described shouldn't happen in this video, for the bullish scenario). Things are still looking better for bulls than they were last week, but we should be very careful here. TOTAL is also in the bearish channel again TOTAL2 looks much more indecisive, with powerful wicks on either side. What we want to see is these candles remain neutral (bulls will need to hold current levels) OR we'll need to break and hold above the bearish channels before weekly close.
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The video I mention in this update refers to the most recent video on my page.
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We also want to make sure that the TOTAL crypto market cap holds above 230B
nice analysis bro. wait and see is what I am doing as well
VictorCobra
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@mattgetsbarreled, Thanks man! We shall see. Still holding that trend for now and moving very slowly up.
kromc5
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I still wonder if bitcoin will follow the market if it goes down, the DJIT, and RUS had really dropped hard and then the fed started printing hard last month.
VictorCobra
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@kromc5, Yeah I've been very curious about this as well. I think a study was done a while ago that shows crypto is more correlated with emerging markets. This means it could be more correlated with things like marijuana stocks/growth stocks (which have been selling off for a while now). There is little to no correlation between crypto and the regular stock market as a whole, but that might change if we see a real drop. They certainly seemed correlated in November/December last year.
kromc5
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@VictorCobra, It will be interesting to see as I really wonder about the economy long term and food prices since the gov is hiding the actual shortfall in crops this year. I'm Going to replicate the longer trend line you drew as I have mostly worked off the 4 hour and down.
mattgetsbarreled
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I can see ETH/USD going as low as $120 but I think it would be a short V shaped bottom and start a massive rally