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UnknownUnicorn1043646
15 lip 2021 21:49

Stocks - The Fall Short

S&P 500SP

Opis

Idea for SPX:
You know the story of the Fall.
It's the top.
The Great Tribulation Sept.17, 2021.

- AAPL historically marked tops in US markets:


- Ending Diagonal:


- Oil, broader market, yields, commodities, risk currencies rolling over or collapsing:


- Volatility, haven currencies, gold and bonds correlating and turning up:


- USA is in a 1-to-1 analog of Japan's bubble:


'It will be different this time'

GLHF
- DPT

Zlecenie aktywne

Wave 1: 3300, Jul. 14, 2021
Wave 2: 3800
Wave 3: 1888-2222, Sept. 17, 2021
Wave 4: 2700
Wave 5: 666, Dec. 22, 2022

Wave 5 is uncertain this motive wave, but Wave 1 2 3 are certain.

Zlecenie aktywne

Jul 21 VIX expiration + MRNA SP inclusion. Strong impulse.

Zlecenie aktywne

Aug 22, 2021...
"Once in a blue moon."

Zlecenie aktywne

Now we have highest bullish asset allocation ever, lowest bearish asset allocation ever, highest margin debt ever.

"Markets sell off when there are no more buyers"

The only buyers left are dip buyers...

There are no more dips...

Zlecenie aktywne

Here we go. Interest rate swap volatility (SRVIX) spikes 40%.

These signal tightening of credit and coincide with big market reversals, and right now it does appear to lean to the downside.

It also leads the DXY for big moves.

Telling of monetary policy change. Fed has been signaling taper/tightening.

If tapering or rate hike is announced in September, I would expect markets to price it in in August.

Zlecenie aktywne

8/13 for next leg down:

MRNA:

Zlecenie aktywne

Friday the 13th.

Divergences in Vol instruments:
Komentarze
Eloquent
lol if we go that low, i will come visit you in my new private jet and give you a bar of gold
mjcpaull
Nikkei went from 38,000 (close enough) Dec 1989 to 8,000 (close enough) April 2003 - that 14 years - 30,000 points on a 38,000 base - 80% (close enough) / S&P is at 4,400 (close enough) / deduct 80% and we are getting towards your Wave 5 lows..... not unprecedented but I can't see the catalyst to drive the drop and certainly not in your time frames .... what I am seeing is day traders popping in and out of the indices with institutional money moving into bonds even though all the fixed income curve(s) are real rate negative / why.... - premium is on capital preservation not capital return: ditto gold .... on fundamentals what is clear is that the long curve deflationary cycle underpinned by low cost labour sourced in China / SE Asia / Eastern Europe is coming to an end ... core US inflation is 5% and rising / and despite protestations from the Fed., this is embedded not temporary... I'm short / have been for months and it has been painful but I'm convinced the call is correct - the only uncertainties are timing and extent - Wave 5 / 666 is a huge call though - huge - as is Wave 3 / circa 2,000 / Sept 2021 MP
TomNewYork
Yea, I am hearing a lot of talk about a 2000 SPX target. The most bearish thing I have heard is that the market will drop so fast and so hard that the exchanges will actually be closed 'indefinitely'.
T-r-X
Distribution phase AAPL stock.
Lingamfelter
I’m always learning & believe that intuitive trading is not a dead art. Also studying several OGs. This feels like we are topping. Transports are rolling over along w ongoing supply chain disruption. Oil peaking. EV too far away.
And nature does what it does. People r people. We build & destroy. It’s what we do.
CJS04
I am all for being a bear but no new lows... but we do have a 30 percent + drop coming.
JZRG
seen this TA scenario since last june from many ppl. if we go that low i would invest my body on china.......
merkd1904
Jesus
AvenueWork
Been waiting 4ever!!!!
Bearliever
Hey DarkPool why do you think LQD skyrocketed today? I was expecting it to fall coinciding with the nice sell off the top we just had....
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