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TradingCocktail
5 sie 2022 15:27

STONKS WILL GET HAMMERED HARD Long

S&P 500SP

Opis

Fundamental PoV:
-----------------------------------------
- Fade away recession fear for Q3
- Shift to hawkish Fed
- 75 bps rate hike is a done deal
- Escalation in Taiwan
- Possible another supply disruption

Overbought while market buying less hawkish the Jay Powell speech and now all the members turn hawkish. The green street U.S. Friday data confirmed that recession still far ahead, at least this fear will ease for the Q3.


Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.5% 0.3% 0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 5.2% 4.9% 5.2%
Average Weekly Hours (Jul) 34.6 34.5 34.6
Government Payrolls (Jul) 57.0K -6.0K
Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) 30K 17K 27K
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 528K 250K 398K
Participation Rate (Jul) 62.1% 62.2%
Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 471K 230K 404K
U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.7% 6.7%
Unemployment Rate (Jul) 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%

Zlecenie aktywne

avrg 4138
Komentarze
TraderV123
Thanks for your analysis! Agree to end of Q3 at least.
TradingCocktail
TraderV123
@TradingCocktail, There is already talk of a softening Fed. The next rate hike is probably going to be 50 basis points not 75. I think we will eventually see 3400 but not much lower. Remember the Fed has three mandates 1) low inflation 2) full employment and 3) Keep the stock market from collapse! They do not want a repeat of 2008! Large companies like BLK are diversifying their portfolio to include single home rental properties! You may not be able to own the American dream of home ownership but you can rent it! Already in many neighbourhoods houses are no longer for sale, they are for lease! All my humble opinion of course!
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