LiberumPolonia

Current situation vs 1980s, 2000s

SP:SPX   Indeks S&P 500
Introduction

This is pretty clear that we are witnessing bubbles on different markets every around 20 years period of time. These bubbles obviously are driven by the unreasonable greed of the investors. Market is always unreasonable but we can see some similarities between all bubbles.

Japan 80's real estate and stock market

Since Japan had monetary crisis at the beginning of 80's the government decided to impose more dovish policy with very low interest rates and stimulous which ended up in big stock market and real estate bubble. Not to mention that at the peak of in 1989, the value of the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was greater than that of real estate in the entire state of California.
The end was when Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 2.5% to 6%. Investors found it as sign of worse times and bubble was ended. Nikkei 225 never got again the same value as in the late 80's.

NASDAQ 2000's Dotcom

Capital moved from Japan to NASDAQ where was found new point of investment. Newly developed internet created the base for greed for investors. Index crashed by 78% after raising interest rates from 4.75% to 6.5%.

Bitcoin 2020's

The most recent one. I know there are many people who wish Bitcoin go to 500k or more. Even many "predicted" that during current cycle peak will be at around 250-300k, however ATH was around 67k. In my opinion even 67k was very overpriced.
At this moment Bitcoin is not really usable, it was claimed to be "new gold" but gold already proved its usability for thousands years and Bitcoin is fairly new thing, maybe for the next generations it will be more usable but we need years until new business will be created on cryptocurrency and will be developed ways to use it, so far people don't use it widely for everyday payments, if it's ever intended to use for paymens. Similarly to the Dotcom bubble, internet at that time existed but wasn't very usable, later companies like Google and Amazon developed ways for commercial and everyday use. The state legislation must also follow these innovations, including crypto and NFT, otherwise companies won't ever want to enter this business if courts don't recognize violations related to this kind of business.
In my opinion Bitcoin may never reach again 67k or it will take many years. Maybe after few years we will call 2020's as "Bitcoin bubble" powered by very low interest rates and stimulous from pandemic and ended similar like in Japan by raising rates and making fear among investors.

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