Long story short, USD/CAD/JPY Triangle crash imminent. Root cause JPY reset of 20-38%. JPY will crash and soar causing NZDJPY to reset to old structure levels.
If course also the start of this UJ Seasonality !!!
If this is correct, my best find ever :)
Komentarz
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Apparently the market had scheduled the start at 6pm UTC
Komentarz
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Two weeks later... Clearly not as imminent as the signals made me believe. The market is slow, likely because of the trade wars. The USD buying surges never really stopped. Even while commitments report says otherwise. It seems that the numbers of buyers and sellers are quite balanced. When there is a bullish cycle there is not a shortage of buyers, that while I have seen a flat line on a few bearish cycles...
something strange enough to be detected appeared today at 6pm UTC, don't you think that if a start there must be it was more supposed to be today than aug 10th ?
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, That were the first preparations. Then in the meatime the world turns and speculators trade and new corrections have to be made.
lapin_eliott
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suppose that nzdjpy targets and reaches ~50, which would say that nzdjpy indeed performed this move you expect, we could have nzdusd=0.40, usdjpy=125 as it gives nzdjpy=50. therefore the collapse you expect could be just the expression of the usual usd bull run, and absolutely not because of jpy strength. we definitely could have this move on nzdjpy without having any downside on usdjpy, skipping totally the seasonality on usdjpy. this is quite scary.
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, Funny, yes, technically you can solve the marlet's problems in a million ways, but only a few can be used because the marker also has to serve its primary function and rates can't be changed that easy.
lapin_eliott
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unfortunately today's move on usdjpy again again and again proved itself totally non convincing. usdjpy is totally unable to keep stable any daily losses.
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, I can imagine that you would think like that if you are not aware of the cycles.
lapin_eliott
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usdcad is very surprisingly flat recently, what is your expectation for this one.
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, UC and UJ have similar destinies. When USD start to fall both have the common denominator on the same position and will make similar moves, provided that CAD and JPY not moving too wild. The difference can be found with CJ, also the third triangle member of UJ/UC/CJ. UJ and UC have not been able to move because requested moves could not be balanced within the triangle or elsewhere. UJ=UCxCJ always has to validate so if one changes another have to change in the same order of magnitude, the triangle has to be balanced.
lapin_eliott
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some comments : this is not specific to NZD, if it occurs it will be general, this is just by chance that NZD finds itself positioned almost the same as in august 2008. the interesting point here is i do not think we can see the same relative moves : meaning the effect on eurnzd of the simultaneous fall of eurjpy and nzdjpy as an example and for all crosses. i have mapped and scale on actual positions of eurjpy and nzdjpy what would do the revival of same amplitude moves as in 2008 but unfortunately it does not fit with the important joint central bank management of currency band control particularily in the case of eurnzd. so first solution : pair like eurjpy and gbpjpy will fall much more harder than nzdjpy (the opposite of what they did in 2008), second solution : ECB and RBNZ will have to break their mandate, it looks difficult as now pairs like eurnzd are pegged under joint management of the respective CB. but yes technically a "similar" move as in august 2008 looks around the corner, but since 2008 things have changed particularily in term of currency band control (compulsory mandate of central banks, and they are supposed not to break it). behind all of this if think that this is more a crash of eurjpy who is hidden behind the corner much more than nzdjpy (which will be dragged down by eurjpy and not the opposite, in that case eurnzd will be able to pursue its path to its lower ceiling as expeced by ECB and RBNZ).
last point : at the end of the day, all of this depends on the US sock market, YES or NO will it crash, as long as they don't your epxected sudden move on jpy (nzdjpy included) is out of reach
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, Thank you for taking the time to write such a long commentThis process is managed by the market and of the two previous UJ seasonalities I can tell that GJ balances with GU and UJ, EJ with EU and UJ, AU with AU & UJ and finally NJ with NU & UJ. The n UC and UJ often move together as they have the common denominator USD on the same place of the name. Then is left over USDCHF and not sure if there a fixed partner pair this pair moves with. I know it's going down like UC and UJ as it is also driven by USD changes and on the same place. All the Forex ideas you see around this time are part of the UJ Seasonality and somehow linked to a major pair. You can further look into the moves I named earlier and how the are linked to crosses that are also part of that first move, namelly GJ, EJ, AJ & NJ. They have common denominator JPY that most likely is driving the swings and if true, other pairs containing JPY will be similarly affected, for example CADJ,PY CHFJPY & UJ .. again ...