Critical NASDAQ Breakdown: Major Reversal or Fakeout Ahead?
Zaktualizowano
Current Market Structure Overview
Key Swing Highs & Lows:
The price has formed a weak high around the 21,245.7 level, which indicates potential liquidity above this zone.
The recent low at 20,309.1 is protected, suggesting that the market may seek support in this area if downward momentum prevails.
Consolidation Phase:
The price is currently in a balanced range, with accumulation near the 20,700 region and resistance around 21,138.9.
Volume Profile Insights:
High-volume nodes (POC - Point of Control) around 21,138.9 and 20,700 provide significant areas for price reaction. A break above or below these areas will guide future direction.
Bullish Case 📈
Initial Targets:
If price moves above 21,138.9, the weak high at 21,245.7 becomes a primary target for a liquidity grab.
Beyond this, any sustained push could result in a bullish breakout toward 21,428.5.
Support Levels:
Key support lies at 20,700, which aligns with prior accumulation and a possible re-test zone.
Failure to break below this zone will likely keep bulls in control for further upward movement.
Buy-Side Scenarios:
Look for a pullback into 20,700 with strong rejection or bullish momentum signals. A reversal here may trigger buying opportunities targeting 21,138.9 and beyond.
Bearish Case 📉
Break of Support:
A breakdown below 20,700 could trigger further downside into 20,309.1, where key liquidity resides.
Target Zones:
If 20,309.1 fails, the next immediate area of interest is the 50% retracement level at 19,772.5.
The ultimate bearish target for the week is near 19,500, aligning with broader liquidity and demand zones.
Sell-Side Scenarios:
A rejection from the resistance zone at 21,138.9 or a failure to sustain above 21,245.7 could offer short-selling opportunities targeting 20,700 and below.
Key Management Points
Risk Control:
Trade with tight stop-loss placements, especially when entering near high-probability zones like 20,700 or 21,138.9.
Limit risk to 1-2% per trade.
Position Scaling:
Scale into trades gradually, especially when price consolidates around significant levels (e.g., 20,700).
Avoid over-leveraging in choppy or unclear zones.
Patience is Key:
Allow the price to react to key levels like 21,138.9 and 20,700.
Wait for confirmation candles (rejections, breakouts, or significant volume) before committing to any trades.
Key Swing Highs & Lows:
The price has formed a weak high around the 21,245.7 level, which indicates potential liquidity above this zone.
The recent low at 20,309.1 is protected, suggesting that the market may seek support in this area if downward momentum prevails.
Consolidation Phase:
The price is currently in a balanced range, with accumulation near the 20,700 region and resistance around 21,138.9.
Volume Profile Insights:
High-volume nodes (POC - Point of Control) around 21,138.9 and 20,700 provide significant areas for price reaction. A break above or below these areas will guide future direction.
Bullish Case 📈
Initial Targets:
If price moves above 21,138.9, the weak high at 21,245.7 becomes a primary target for a liquidity grab.
Beyond this, any sustained push could result in a bullish breakout toward 21,428.5.
Support Levels:
Key support lies at 20,700, which aligns with prior accumulation and a possible re-test zone.
Failure to break below this zone will likely keep bulls in control for further upward movement.
Buy-Side Scenarios:
Look for a pullback into 20,700 with strong rejection or bullish momentum signals. A reversal here may trigger buying opportunities targeting 21,138.9 and beyond.
Bearish Case 📉
Break of Support:
A breakdown below 20,700 could trigger further downside into 20,309.1, where key liquidity resides.
Target Zones:
If 20,309.1 fails, the next immediate area of interest is the 50% retracement level at 19,772.5.
The ultimate bearish target for the week is near 19,500, aligning with broader liquidity and demand zones.
Sell-Side Scenarios:
A rejection from the resistance zone at 21,138.9 or a failure to sustain above 21,245.7 could offer short-selling opportunities targeting 20,700 and below.
Key Management Points
Risk Control:
Trade with tight stop-loss placements, especially when entering near high-probability zones like 20,700 or 21,138.9.
Limit risk to 1-2% per trade.
Position Scaling:
Scale into trades gradually, especially when price consolidates around significant levels (e.g., 20,700).
Avoid over-leveraging in choppy or unclear zones.
Patience is Key:
Allow the price to react to key levels like 21,138.9 and 20,700.
Wait for confirmation candles (rejections, breakouts, or significant volume) before committing to any trades.
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Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel
Do you agree with this outlook, or do you see something different? Drop your analysis below!Uwaga
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
Uwaga
If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?Uwaga
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?Uwaga
📊 End of Day Thoughts
Today’s market showed a lot of indecision, with price consolidating around key levels. For me, it was a reminder that waiting for clarity is just as important as taking trades. Tomorrow, I’ll be watchingfor potential setups
Uwaga
GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.
Uwaga
What value do you see in joining a trading community that provides personalized mentorship?Uwaga
AU - Monthly CPI Indicator (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for AUD.
Rationale: A drop to 2.1% YoY inflation signals reduced price pressures.
Best Crossover: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY – Look for AUD weakness.
US - Core PCE Price Index (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral for USD.
Rationale: Consensus alignment (0.3%) keeps inflation expectations steady.
Best Crossover: Neutral impact.
US - Durable Goods Orders (OCT)
Outcome: Mixed for USD.
Rationale: Ex-transportation data (0.5% → 0.6%) bullish, but headline number (-0.7%) bearish.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY – Watch for volatility.
US - GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: 3% growth outpaces previous expectations, supporting economic strength.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, EUR/USD – Dollar strength likely.
US - Personal Spending (OCT)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: Increased spending (0.5%) reflects consumer confidence.
Best Crossover: USD/CHF, XAU/USD.
US - Goods Trade Balance (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A widening deficit (-108.23B vs. -99.9B) pressures the dollar.
Best Crossover: EUR/USD, USD/JPY.
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