Taking another look at my recession indicator, you can see that there still has not been a crossover of the orange and purple moving averages, which has historically been a precursor of recession. For those who aren't familiar with this chart, it's a recession indicator that I put together, that I like to follow as a baseline indication of recession in the economy. There are other indicators that I look at in addition to this, but this is my favorite.
The pink line graph on the chart is the S&P500, and I'm comparing that to two key moving averages on the Initial Claims chart. Each time there has been a clear crossover (with orange crossing above purple AFTER a consistent downtrend) it has corresponded to a top in the S&P before a recession. This happened in the year 2000 right before the dot com bubble, and then it happened again in 2007 at the exact top before the great recession. You can see that with the two vertical dashed red trendlines.
This indicator also works for finding the END of a recession. You can see that the first crossover with orange crossing below purple has been the signal that previous recessions have ended. You can see that with the two vertical green dashed trendlines. The crossover signaling the end of the great recession was a bit delayed, but it would have proven to be an extremely powerful entry indicator over time.
The equity markets have been breaking out to new all time highs, and (based on technical analysis that I recently published) I believe that the stock market is in a new year to multi year expansion higher.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
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Here is my analysis showing why stocks are in a new bull expansion higher...
It's still not "[your] recession indicator," but you did add the colour yourself, so perhaps that is enough to claim it as yours. I like dark blue with my fibonacci retracement indicator.
@Zulkaa7, It's Initial Claims data for unemployment that he's using as his "recession indicator". Unemployment also lags, as unemployment spikes as a result of businesses reacting to the collapse, not the other way around.
@dacto @london55555 @MrRenev