1. Sterlingaussie has been aggressively bid higher for the last 7-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows.
2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 8th day or more of buying is 0.254% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that we move higher today - I like these odds so will add a short here.
- If we were to see another day of buying, a 8th day, then the probability of a 9th day is even better on the sell-side odds of 99.918% so i will add to shorts if this is the case - the max number of buying days in GBPAUD has been 10d once and 9d 3 times, 8d 7 times.
3. Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week, and sterling OIS rates came off from Fridays rally after the market decided to fade last weeks data.
- Also we have found some technical price resistance at the 1.72 handle so being short here makes sense.
1. Short GBPAUD pretty much at market TP should be 100-200pips lower.
2. Short small and add if we move higher again on thursday - friday imo is the most likely day for a sterling sell-off as shorts are squared up on profit taking.
3. I also like being short gbpnzd and gbpusd from 1.81 and 1.325 - both have 100-200 easy pips - especially on a UK GDP miss on friday.
Can you please tell me how you determined or calculated these figures?
"Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week"
Yeah aussie rates for september firmed up check the 30 day aussie BBSR - ticked up implying less prob of a rate cut, though OIS data is more relevant but i dont have for aussie
isaac312
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this is excellent plan
QuantumLogicTrading
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Yup, get short small and add if we move higher - i think friday will be the day we come down when stelring short profit taking kicks in, though upside GDP revisions could be a risk here but equally downside revisions will likely sell GBP off aggressively. but i like being short gbpaud anyway given the IR differential, especially in this yield grabbing market (sinc e 2016 negative rates environment) also firm firm aussie data last week.. and UK PMI's due next week which should show more downside in the economy i dont mind holding short for a while 1.700 the aim.
isaac312
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master! dont you wanna work in HF?? very curious
QuantumLogicTrading
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Haha ive spent time in sell side at GS but no i dont really, im happy trading PA - HF trading is v v v difficult to break into + job security is low im better just doing it myself
Can you please tell me how you determined or calculated these figures?
"Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week"