Why do you say most likely bearish. Now we see you were right. But I'm curious how you predicted it?
Sterben5516
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@ciaranmopv, hello thank you for your comment.. If you see correctly, i'm drawing a triangle right? But that triangle doesn't really confirms the ways for Eurusd. What if? I change the trendline for support into a horizontal line? Would it make it a support level? Meanwhile, at the resistance level in H1, and H4. You can see many rejections in that resistance level and many dojis. Plus, in every price market, there's chance for market to go and collect a new and fresh support level, that is around 1.11553-1.11331 . That's where a fresh zone is and the market wants it. I may be wrong sometimes, and also it's difficult for me to explain why. That's why when you see i post analysis, i hardly give any description.Thank you once again!
ciaranmopv
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@Sterben5516, Ah I see. Thank you for the in depth response it definitely helps me see where you're coming from. I see that you drew a triangle instead of a wedge for the recent market ranging, why is that? Obviously your analysis of the pattern was correct but when I look at it I see a falling wedge pattern with the bottom support being horizontal. Indicating a breakout going up. Thanks again for your response.
Sterben5516
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@ciaranmopv, The answer is at D1. If you see correctly, and watch it thoroughly. You will see a long wicks closing on D1 resistances. Whereas, it is also a downtrend, after few confirmations from D1, and then a descending triangle, and the market is in a downtrend for sure you will look for a short. It's a high percentage EURUSD will drop. Now you can see, EU rejected price at 1.11331 but then drop again further. Why would you draw a falling wedge while you can draw a triangle? Mostly everyone will think, "Wow! This is a falling wedge! Lets look for a buy!" But try to look properly, if you draw horizontal line on the support and then a trendline on the resistance where there is lower highs, but the same level of lows and a straight line of support. Of course, you'll see a Descending triangle, that's where i realized it is going to be bearish.
A few confirmation can create a powerful strategy ; And this is my confirmation:-
- D1 Resistance rejected 3 times
- Trendline H4 resistance lower highs ; Support level horizontal (Descending triangle)
- D1 The market is still going in a downtrend, it will be risky to look for a buy on that area
For me, the trend is my friend, i should not fight it. That way you will be confident.
ciaranmopv
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@Sterben5516, Interesting. Thank you for the great responses.