EUR/GBP 4H Accumulation Outlook: Detailed Technical Analysis
Market Context:
The bearish trend has been established with the clear formation of a Bearish Order Block at the top left, and price has respected this level, indicating a continuation of the downtrend. The market has created a structure that suggests potential accumulation.
Wyckoff Accumulation Phases:
The chart is segmented into Wyckoff accumulation phases, specifically:
Phase A: Selling Climax (SC) marks the first bottom, and the Automatic Rally (AR) creates the initial reaction. This is followed by a Secondary Test (ST), which revisits the lower price levels, solidifying the phase.
Phase B: Represents the building of the cause, with minor upswings and a re-distribution of the asset.
Phase C: The price dips into ST in Phase B, signaling that we may have reached the final downside before an upward reversal. This corresponds with Wave 5 completion in the Elliott Wave structure.
Elliott Wave Theory:
The analysis overlays Elliott Wave count, and currently, we are at the completion of Wave 5, which aligns with the Wyckoff SC point, suggesting a potential reversal. After the completion of Wave 5, we anticipate the beginning of an ABC corrective pattern, which will likely play out through Phases B and C of Wyckoff.
Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracement:
The price action is hovering around the 0.618 retracement level (0.85084), which is a key Fibonacci level that often signals a potential reversal.
0.382 (0.84722) and 0.786 (0.8556) Fibonacci levels are also marked, indicating zones where price might react on the way up during the correction.
Order Flow and SMC Concepts:
The POC (Point of Control) is sitting at 0.8508, and there is clear mitigated order flow above the current price, suggesting that any reversal will need to overcome this level. The Buy Side liquidity is marked, and the price could aim to break through this zone after retesting lower areas.
A key Breaker Block is formed, and the strong close at W close (Weekly close) gives further confidence that we may see a bullish breakout, although confirmation is required through price action.
Harmonic Projections:
Projected harmonic patterns suggest an upward movement from this accumulation. The 1.85 extension is marked, indicating the potential final target for the next bullish leg. The lower high formation aligns with Phase D, where the price is expected to test the resistance and create a Last Point of Support (LPS) before confirming a bullish trend.
Expected Outlook:
In the near term:
A minor retracement or pullback is expected from the current support level (0.83140), and a test of 0.84640 is likely.
The market may shift from Phase B to Phase C of Wyckoff, with LPS being tested around 0.8508.
Break of resistance at 0.85084 would confirm the reversal, leading towards higher price levels, eventually targeting 0.8556 or beyond in the Phase D of accumulation.
This combination of Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, and SMC gives us a clear strategy: monitor the LPS test and watch for price action signals for confirmation of reversal.
The structure points to a potential bullish breakout, but risk management is critical in case the market invalidates this outlook. A break below the SC support level would suggest further downside movement.
The bearish trend has been established with the clear formation of a Bearish Order Block at the top left, and price has respected this level, indicating a continuation of the downtrend. The market has created a structure that suggests potential accumulation.
Wyckoff Accumulation Phases:
The chart is segmented into Wyckoff accumulation phases, specifically:
Phase A: Selling Climax (SC) marks the first bottom, and the Automatic Rally (AR) creates the initial reaction. This is followed by a Secondary Test (ST), which revisits the lower price levels, solidifying the phase.
Phase B: Represents the building of the cause, with minor upswings and a re-distribution of the asset.
Phase C: The price dips into ST in Phase B, signaling that we may have reached the final downside before an upward reversal. This corresponds with Wave 5 completion in the Elliott Wave structure.
Elliott Wave Theory:
The analysis overlays Elliott Wave count, and currently, we are at the completion of Wave 5, which aligns with the Wyckoff SC point, suggesting a potential reversal. After the completion of Wave 5, we anticipate the beginning of an ABC corrective pattern, which will likely play out through Phases B and C of Wyckoff.
Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracement:
The price action is hovering around the 0.618 retracement level (0.85084), which is a key Fibonacci level that often signals a potential reversal.
0.382 (0.84722) and 0.786 (0.8556) Fibonacci levels are also marked, indicating zones where price might react on the way up during the correction.
Order Flow and SMC Concepts:
The POC (Point of Control) is sitting at 0.8508, and there is clear mitigated order flow above the current price, suggesting that any reversal will need to overcome this level. The Buy Side liquidity is marked, and the price could aim to break through this zone after retesting lower areas.
A key Breaker Block is formed, and the strong close at W close (Weekly close) gives further confidence that we may see a bullish breakout, although confirmation is required through price action.
Harmonic Projections:
Projected harmonic patterns suggest an upward movement from this accumulation. The 1.85 extension is marked, indicating the potential final target for the next bullish leg. The lower high formation aligns with Phase D, where the price is expected to test the resistance and create a Last Point of Support (LPS) before confirming a bullish trend.
Expected Outlook:
In the near term:
A minor retracement or pullback is expected from the current support level (0.83140), and a test of 0.84640 is likely.
The market may shift from Phase B to Phase C of Wyckoff, with LPS being tested around 0.8508.
Break of resistance at 0.85084 would confirm the reversal, leading towards higher price levels, eventually targeting 0.8556 or beyond in the Phase D of accumulation.
This combination of Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, and SMC gives us a clear strategy: monitor the LPS test and watch for price action signals for confirmation of reversal.
The structure points to a potential bullish breakout, but risk management is critical in case the market invalidates this outlook. A break below the SC support level would suggest further downside movement.
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Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.