Hi Alex,
i tested EUR/CAD on H1 from 2011 to 2014 and the Cypher don't work here. What is your Statistic? Have you checked it?
Alexander_Nikitin
⋅
@LarsMerkens,
1) Your stats is obviusly based on very small number of trades. To find 100 trades on 1H you are to start from 2007 and end in 2017
2) What was your swing identification algorythm?
3) What were your rules for pattern invalidation?
4) What were your rules for news trading?
5) what session (Asia/London/NewYork) were you testing?
6) What were your rules for trade execution and trade management?
My stats for cyphers is 71% of hitting the first target (of course, with my approach).
LarsMerkens
⋅
@Alexander_Nikitin, sorry i don't want to criticize you. I make a bigger Backtest and start from 2007 :-)
Do You set you Stop on 113% or do you make +5 Pips to 113% ?
Alexander_Nikitin
⋅
@LarsMerkens,
Depends on the direction. With bearish cyphers I place it at 113+spread because the stops are executed by ask price.With bull cyphers I place it 113 even.
By the way, did you do the target adjustment? This is one of the most common mistakes with advanced pattern trading/backtesting.
LarsMerkens
⋅
@Alexander_Nikitin, yes i have an excel an test 38,1 / 50 / 61,8 / 78,6 / 88,6 and the 100% Retracements. And i testet a lot. With diffrent stops but i just found in H1 AUD/USD , AUD/CAD & EUR/CHF BAT Pattern which are working with a profit Factor over 1,7 :-(
I don't know what i'm doing wrong...
Alexander_Nikitin
⋅
@LarsMerkens,
You know that conventional targets of .0382 and 0.618 in combination of 1.13 stop placement were elaborated decades ago and since then were backtested by generations of traders. Don't you think that you are smarter than the guys that developed these strategies? I'd advise you to stop waisting your time searching for better stops and targets - they are already perfect. Concentrate on the swing identification technique. Be honest and answer the questions in the first comment, they are of crucial importance.
Soltmann
⋅
i post it on 30 min...:) so it was 6 bars :)
but you're doing really good work. I always see you in your youtube channel.Greetings from east Germany...
Soltmann
⋅
hey alexander. i had the bigger cypher on my view... but the entry was missed at 1 pip...:( so i cancelled the trade. 3 bars later it was a perfect move...
i tested EUR/CAD on H1 from 2011 to 2014 and the Cypher don't work here. What is your Statistic? Have you checked it?