I'm going to give you your daily dose of euphoria with this idea and for that I'm going to keep it nice and short! Joking aside, this one is indeed one crazy fractal, but so far it has been playing out perfectly.
On the left chart we have Bitcoin's price action in 2020/2021 and on the right chart the Parabolic Run of 2016/2017. I will not get into much detail but as you see the two sequences are fairly similar. Based on the 2016/17 fractal, it appears that we have currently completed wave (4) and are about to start leg (5). I am not implying that this will necessarily be the peak of the current Bull Cycle, even fractals on different time-frames have applications on price projections.
If however this fractal plays out entirely, then wave (5) may be completed inside May and it can be anywhere within 100k-150k! That is based both on the Fibonacci levels on the time scale (blue Fibs) as well as the Fibonacci extension that points out to a 1.5 ext!
So can we get to 100k faster than most think? What's your view on this fractal? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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There seems to be much confusion about the 1-2-3-4-5 markings. I haven't applied the EW theory here, if I had I would have said so in the analysis. I used the numbers as a pure illustration of the identical price sequence. Those who follow me for long know that I normally use (a), (b), (c) etc marked separately, but this time using the lines was quicker. I won't do that again to avoid such confusion.
Wow! Well researched my friend. Here's my update, do share your views :
bobbysto18
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@Cryptorphic academic.oup.com/rof/article/17/2/625/1596704 Empirical evidence that the head and shoulders pattern is not indicative to reversal patterns or any perceived price action. Simple a display of increase in volume and momentum. Although given the lack of fundamentals in cryptocurrencies, an therefore technical analysis is used solely, it could be an interested use case which proves otherwise?
Cryptorphic
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@bobbysto18, Thanks for your input.
The heading itself says,
Noise Trading and Illusory Correlations in "US Equity Markets". Crypto market as you said is different.
These patterns work here but in a tricky way.
@bobbysto18, in this case, even if the figure shows a H&S, we don't consider it one, for H&S are REVERSAL patterns, and what you see here is a CONTINUATION pattern... now many times some kind of H&S do appear at continuation spots but they are not "true" H&S... as for the "study" that's what real "noise" looks like... do not read academics at all if you are looking for trading. If you not into TA, look for statistics edges, quant models or Liquidity Analisys, but do not care about what academics say, cause none of them trade nor have any idea what trading is like!
Here's my update, do share your views :